TED2017
Kate Marvel: Can clouds buy us more time to solve climate change?
Kejt Marvel (Kate Marvel): Mogu li oblaci da nam obezbede dodatno vreme da rešimo problem klimatskih promena?
Filmed:
Readability: 3.7
1,287,488 views
Klimatske promene su stvarne, slučaj zaključen. Međutim, postoji tu još mnogo toga što ne razmemo; a što više znamo, veće su nam šanse da usporimo klimatske promene. Jedan i dalje nepoznat faktor je: kakvu ulogu bi mogli da odigraju oblaci? Postoji mala nada da bi nam mogli obezbediti nešto vremena da popravimo stvari... ili bi mogli da pogoršaju globalno zagrevanje. Klimatološkinja Kejt Marvel nas vodi kroz nauku o oblacima, kao i to šta bi zemlji možda trebalo da savlada sopstvenu groznicu.
Kate Marvel - Climate scientist
Climate scientist Kate Marvel looks at the big picture of environmental change. Full bio
Climate scientist Kate Marvel looks at the big picture of environmental change. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I am a climate scientist,
0
905
1729
Ja sam klimatološkinja
00:15
and I hate weather.
1
3214
2763
i mrzim vremenske prilike.
00:18
I have spent too much time in California,
2
6001
2406
Provela sam previše vremena u Kaliforniji
00:20
and I strongly feel that weather
should be optional.
should be optional.
3
8431
3665
i čvrsto verujem da bi vreme
trebalo da bude opciono.
trebalo da bude opciono.
00:24
(Laughter)
4
12120
1134
(Smeh)
00:25
So I don't want to experience clouds,
5
13278
3041
Dakle, ne želim da vidim oblake,
00:28
let alone study them.
6
16343
1373
još manje da ih izučavam.
00:30
But clouds seem to follow me
wherever I go.
wherever I go.
7
18366
3697
Međutim, čini se da me oblaci
prate kuda god da krenem.
prate kuda god da krenem.
00:34
The thing is, clouds are a real
challenge for climate science.
challenge for climate science.
8
22822
4481
Radi se o tome da su oblaci
istinski izazov za klimatologiju.
istinski izazov za klimatologiju.
00:39
We don't know how they're going to react
as the planet heats up,
as the planet heats up,
9
27971
3821
Ne znamo kako će da reaguju
kako se planeta bude zagrevala,
kako se planeta bude zagrevala,
00:43
and hidden in that uncertainty
10
31816
3721
a skrivena u toj neizvesnosti
00:47
might be hope.
11
35561
1286
bi mogla da bude nada.
00:49
Maybe, just maybe,
12
37531
2533
Možda, ali možda,
00:52
clouds could slow down global warming,
13
40088
2681
oblaci bi mogli da uspore
globalno zagrevanje
globalno zagrevanje
00:54
and buy us a little bit more time
to get our act together,
to get our act together,
14
42793
3647
i da nam kupe još malo vremena
da se organizujemo,
da se organizujemo,
00:58
which would be very convenient right now.
15
46464
2716
a to bi nam prilično odgovaralo
u ovom trenutku.
u ovom trenutku.
01:01
I mean, even I could put up
with a few more cloudy days
with a few more cloudy days
16
49600
4090
Mislim, čak i ja bih mogla da podnesem
još nekoliko oblačnih dana,
još nekoliko oblačnih dana,
01:05
if clouds saved the planet.
17
53714
2067
kad bi oblaci spasili planetu.
01:08
Now, we are sure about some things.
18
56722
2555
Sad, sigurni smo u vezi s nekim stvarima.
01:11
Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas,
19
59897
2323
Ugljen-dioksid izaziva
efekat staklene bašte,
efekat staklene bašte,
01:14
we're emitting a lot of it,
20
62244
1396
otpuštamo ga previše,
01:15
and the planet is heating up.
21
63664
1546
i planeta se zagreva.
01:17
Case closed.
22
65534
1312
Slučaj zaključen.
01:19
But I still go to work every day.
23
67507
1855
Ali ja i dalje idem na posao svaki dan.
01:21
It turns out that there is a lot
that we don't understand
that we don't understand
24
69970
3700
Ispostavlja se da ima mnogo toga
što ne razumemo
što ne razumemo
01:25
about climate change.
25
73694
1467
kod klimatskih promena.
01:27
In particular, we haven't answered
26
75614
2464
Tačnije, nismo odgovorili
01:30
what seems to be a very
fundamental question.
fundamental question.
27
78102
2884
na nešto što se čini
krajnje temeljnim pitanjem.
krajnje temeljnim pitanjem.
01:33
We know it's going to get hot,
28
81584
1591
Znamo da će da bude vruće,
01:35
but we don't know exactly
how hot it's going to get.
how hot it's going to get.
29
83199
3719
ali ne znamo tačno
koliko vruće će da bude.
koliko vruće će da bude.
01:39
Now, this is a really
easy question to answer
easy question to answer
30
87672
2939
Sad, na ovo pitanje
je zaista lako odgovoriti,
je zaista lako odgovoriti,
01:42
if one of you would like
to give me a time machine.
to give me a time machine.
31
90635
2974
kad bi mi neko od vas dao vremeplov.
01:45
But I'm going to be honest with you:
32
93633
2461
Ali reći ću vam iskreno:
01:48
if I had a time machine,
33
96118
2055
kad bih imala vremeplov,
01:50
I would not be hanging out
at this particular point in history.
at this particular point in history.
34
98197
3286
ne bih se vrzmala
baš po ovoj tački u istoriji.
baš po ovoj tački u istoriji.
01:54
So in order to see the future,
35
102229
3053
Pa, kako bismo videli budućnost,
01:57
we have to rely on the output
of computer simulations --
of computer simulations --
36
105306
3614
moramo da se oslonimo na izveštaje
kompjuterskih simulacija -
kompjuterskih simulacija -
02:00
climate models, like this one.
37
108944
1963
klimatske modele, poput ovog.
02:03
Now, in my line of work,
38
111518
1840
Sad, u mom poslu,
02:05
I encounter many very charming
people on the internet
people on the internet
39
113382
3701
susrećem mnoge veoma šarmantne
ljude na internetu
ljude na internetu
02:09
who like to tell me
that climate models are all wrong.
that climate models are all wrong.
40
117107
4136
koji vole da mi kažu
da su klimatski modeli skroz pogrešni.
da su klimatski modeli skroz pogrešni.
02:13
And I would just like to say:
41
121942
2316
I ja bih samo želela da kažem:
02:16
no kidding!
42
124282
1184
ne zezajte!
02:18
Seriously? I get paid to complain
about climate models.
about climate models.
43
126389
3578
Ozbiljno? Plaćaju me da se žalim
na klimatske modele.
na klimatske modele.
02:21
But we don't want models to be perfect.
44
129991
3361
Međutim, mi ne želimo
da modeli budu savršeni.
da modeli budu savršeni.
02:25
We want them to be useful.
45
133825
1495
Želimo da budu korisni.
02:27
I mean, think about it:
46
135946
1631
Mislim, razmislite o tome:
02:29
a computer simulation
47
137601
2058
kompjuterska simulacija
02:31
that's able to exactly
reproduce all of reality.
reproduce all of reality.
48
139683
3886
koja je u stanju da tačno
reprodukuje kompletnu stvarnost.
reprodukuje kompletnu stvarnost.
02:36
That's not a climate model;
49
144166
1789
To nije klimatski model;
02:38
That's "The Matrix."
50
146495
1572
to je "Matriks".
02:41
So, models are not crystal balls.
51
149022
3412
Dakle, modeli nisu kristalne kugle.
02:44
They're research tools,
52
152458
1691
Oni su istraživačko oruđe,
02:46
and the ways in which they're wrong
can actually teach us a lot.
can actually teach us a lot.
53
154173
4250
a tipovi grešaka koje prave
zapravo su poprilično poučni.
zapravo su poprilično poučni.
02:50
For example:
54
158993
1353
Na primer:
različiti klimatski modeli
su velikim delom u satanju da obuhvate
su velikim delom u satanju da obuhvate
02:52
different climate models
are largely able to capture
are largely able to capture
55
160370
2994
02:55
the warming that we've seen so far.
56
163388
2124
zagrevanje koje smo do sad videli.
02:57
But fast-forward to the end of the century
57
165536
2768
Međutim, premotajte do kraja veka,
03:00
under a business-as-usual scenario,
58
168328
2329
pri uobičajenom scenariju,
03:02
and climate models
don't really agree anymore.
don't really agree anymore.
59
170681
2526
i klimatski modeli se više
zaista ne podudaraju.
zaista ne podudaraju.
03:05
Yeah, they're all warming;
that's just basic physics.
that's just basic physics.
60
173787
3192
Da, svi pokazuju zagrevanje;
to je prosto osnovna fizika.
to je prosto osnovna fizika.
03:09
But some of them project catastrophe --
61
177330
3209
Ali neki od njih prikazuju katastrofu -
03:12
more than five times the warming
we've seen already.
we've seen already.
62
180563
2851
zagrevanje pet puta veće
od onog koje smo videli.
od onog koje smo videli.
03:15
And others are literally more chill.
63
183756
2585
A drugi su bukvalno opušteniji.
03:19
So why don't climate models agree
on how warm it's going to get?
on how warm it's going to get?
64
187019
4824
Dakle, zašto se klimatski modeli ne slažu
oko toga koliko toplo će da bude?
oko toga koliko toplo će da bude?
03:24
Well, to a large extent,
65
192434
2047
Pa, u velikoj meri
03:26
it's because they don't agree
on what clouds will do in the future.
on what clouds will do in the future.
66
194505
3580
je tako jer se ne slažu oko toga
kako će se oblaci ponašati u budućnosti.
kako će se oblaci ponašati u budućnosti.
03:30
And that is because, just like me,
67
198752
2771
A to je zato što, baš kao i ja,
03:33
computers hate clouds.
68
201547
1836
kompjuteri mrze oblake.
03:35
Computers hate clouds because
they're simultaneously very large
they're simultaneously very large
69
203819
4190
Kompjuteri mrze oblake
jer su istovremeno veoma veliki
jer su istovremeno veoma veliki
03:40
and very small.
70
208033
1246
i veoma mali.
03:41
Clouds are formed
71
209804
1158
Oblaci nastaju
03:42
when microscopic water droplets
or ice crystals coalesce
or ice crystals coalesce
72
210986
4625
kada se mikroskopske kapljice vode
ili kristali leda sjedine
ili kristali leda sjedine
03:47
around tiny particles.
73
215635
1586
oko sićušnih čestica.
03:49
But at the same time, they cover
two-thirds of the earth's surface.
two-thirds of the earth's surface.
74
217695
3719
A istovremeno, prekrivaju
dve trećine zemljine površine.
dve trećine zemljine površine.
03:53
In order to really
accurately model clouds,
accurately model clouds,
75
221895
3020
Kako bismo zaista precizno
napravili model oblaka,
napravili model oblaka,
03:56
we'd need to track the behavior
of every water droplet and dust grain
of every water droplet and dust grain
76
224939
4524
morali bismo da pratimo ponašanje
svake vodene kapljice i zrna prašine
svake vodene kapljice i zrna prašine
04:01
in the entire atmosphere,
77
229487
1442
u čitavoj atmosferi,
04:02
and there's no computer
powerful enough to do that.
powerful enough to do that.
78
230953
2501
a ne postoji dovoljno jak kompjuter
da to obavi.
da to obavi.
04:05
So instead, we have to make a trade-off:
79
233856
2761
Te, umesto toga moramo
da pravimo kompromis:
da pravimo kompromis:
04:09
we can zoom in and get the details right,
80
237120
2903
možemo da zumiramo
i pravilno razumemo detalje,
i pravilno razumemo detalje,
04:12
but have no idea
what's going on worldwide;
what's going on worldwide;
81
240047
2978
ali nemamo predstavu
o tome šta se dešava širom sveta;
o tome šta se dešava širom sveta;
04:15
or, we could sacrifice
realism at small scales
realism at small scales
82
243049
4923
ili možemo da žrtvujemo
realizam na manjim razmerama,
realizam na manjim razmerama,
04:19
in order to see the bigger picture.
83
247996
1922
kako bismo videli širi okvir.
04:22
Now, there's no one right answer,
84
250309
2230
Sad, nema tačnog odgovora,
04:24
no perfect way to do this,
85
252563
1555
nema savršenog načina za to,
04:26
and different climate models
make different choices.
make different choices.
86
254602
2942
a različiti klimatski modeli
donose različite odluke.
donose različite odluke.
04:30
Now, it is unfortunate
87
258443
2365
Sad, nije dobro
04:32
that computers struggle with clouds,
88
260832
2338
to što se kompjuteri muče s oblacima
04:35
because clouds are crucially important
89
263194
2698
jer su oblaci zapravo veoma važni
04:37
in regulating the temperature
of the planet.
of the planet.
90
265916
2352
za regulisanje temperature naše planete.
04:40
In fact, if all the clouds went away,
91
268634
2571
Zapravo, kad bi svi oblaci nestali,
04:43
we would experience
profound climate changes.
profound climate changes.
92
271229
3120
doživeli bismo suštinske
klimatske promene.
klimatske promene.
04:46
But without clouds,
93
274989
1473
Međutim, da li bi bez oblaka
04:48
would it be warmer or colder?
94
276486
2265
bilo toplije ili hladnije?
04:51
The answer is both.
95
279492
1560
Odgovor je oboje.
04:54
So I'm going to be honest with you,
I am not a cloud spotter.
I am not a cloud spotter.
96
282016
3022
Biću iskrena prema vama,
nisam ljubiteljka oblaka.
nisam ljubiteljka oblaka.
04:57
My favorite type of cloud is none.
97
285062
2270
Moj omiljeni tip oblaka ne postoji.
04:59
But even I know that clouds
come in all shapes and sizes.
come in all shapes and sizes.
98
287770
4106
Ali čak i ja znam da oblaci
dolaze u svim oblicima i veličinama.
dolaze u svim oblicima i veličinama.
05:04
Low, thick clouds like these
are really good at blocking out the sun
are really good at blocking out the sun
99
292567
4220
Niski, gusti oblaci, poput ovih,
zaista su dobri u blokiranju sunca
zaista su dobri u blokiranju sunca
05:08
and ruining your barbecue,
100
296811
1395
i uništavanju roštilja,
05:10
and high, wispy clouds like these cirrus
101
298888
2923
a visoki, paperjasti oblaci,
poput ovih cirusa,
poput ovih cirusa,
05:13
largely let that sunlight stream through.
102
301835
2221
uglavnom propuštaju sunčeve zrake.
05:16
Every sunny day is the same,
103
304616
2397
Svaki sunčani dan je isti,
05:19
but every cloudy day
is cloudy in its own way.
is cloudy in its own way.
104
307037
2483
ali svaki oblačan dan
je oblačan na svoj način.
je oblačan na svoj način.
05:22
And it's this diversity
105
310037
1958
A zbog ove različitosti
05:24
that can make the global impact of clouds
very hard to understand.
very hard to understand.
106
312019
3805
može da bude teško shvatiti
globalni uticaj oblaka.
globalni uticaj oblaka.
05:28
So to see this global effect of clouds,
107
316276
3004
Da bi se video globalni efekat oblaka,
05:31
it really helps to take a selfie.
108
319304
2643
zaista pomaže kad se napravi selfi.
05:35
It will never cease to blow my mind
109
323138
3501
Uvek će me oduševljavati
05:38
that we can see our planet
from outer space,
from outer space,
110
326663
2548
to što možemo da vidimo
našu planetu iz svemira,
našu planetu iz svemira,
05:41
but we can't see all of it.
111
329872
1641
ali ne možemo da je vidimo celu.
05:44
Clouds are blocking the view.
112
332118
1640
Oblaci blokiraju pogled.
05:46
That's what they do.
113
334300
1365
Takvi su oni.
05:47
These low, thick clouds
are extremely effective sunshades.
are extremely effective sunshades.
114
335689
4686
Ovi niski, gusti oblaci
su izuzetno efikasan suncobran.
su izuzetno efikasan suncobran.
05:52
They turn back about 20 percent
of everything the sun sends us.
of everything the sun sends us.
115
340399
3564
Oni vraćaju oko 20 procenata
svega što nam sunce šalje.
svega što nam sunce šalje.
05:56
That is a lot of wasted solar power.
116
344474
2704
To je mnogo protraćene sunčeve energije.
05:59
So, low clouds are powerful sunshades,
117
347202
2982
Dakle, niski oblaci su moćan suncobran,
06:02
making the planet cooler.
118
350208
1840
rashlađuju planetu.
06:04
But that's not the only effect of clouds.
119
352072
2169
Međutim, to nije jedini efekat oblaka.
06:06
Our planet has a temperature,
120
354946
1572
Naša planeta ima temperaturu
06:08
and like anything with a temperature,
121
356542
2187
i, kao i sve sa temperaturom,
06:10
it's giving off heat.
122
358753
1345
otpušta toplotu.
06:12
We are radiating thermal energy
away into space,
away into space,
123
360649
3326
Zračimo toplotnu energiju u svemir
06:15
and we can see this in the infrared.
124
363999
2845
i to je vidljivo na infracrvenom snimku.
06:18
Once again, clouds are blocking the view.
125
366868
3111
Još jednom, oblaci blokiraju vidik.
06:22
That's because high clouds live
in the upper reaches of the atmosphere,
in the upper reaches of the atmosphere,
126
370387
3803
To je zato što visoki oblaci obitavaju
u gornjim dometima atmosfere,
u gornjim dometima atmosfere,
06:26
where it's very cold.
127
374214
1373
gde je veoma hladno.
06:27
And this means that they lose
very little heat to space themselves.
very little heat to space themselves.
128
375991
3698
A to znači da oni sami gube
veoma malo toplote u svemiru.
veoma malo toplote u svemiru.
06:31
But at the same time, they block
the heat coming up from the planet below.
the heat coming up from the planet below.
129
379713
4391
Ali istovremeno blokiraju
toplotu koja dolazi sa planete ispod.
toplotu koja dolazi sa planete ispod.
06:36
The earth is trying to cool itself off,
130
384128
2875
Zemlja pokušava samu sebe da rashladi,
06:39
and high clouds are getting in the way.
131
387027
2509
a visoki oblaci joj preprečuju put.
06:42
The result is a very
powerful greenhouse effect.
powerful greenhouse effect.
132
390163
4074
Rezultat je veoma snažan
efekat staklene bašte.
efekat staklene bašte.
06:46
So, clouds play this very
large and dual role
large and dual role
133
394999
3854
Dakle, oblaci igraju
tu veoma veliku i dvostruku igru
tu veoma veliku i dvostruku igru
06:50
in the climate system.
134
398877
1571
u klimatskom sistemu.
06:52
We've got low clouds that act
like a sunshade,
like a sunshade,
135
400472
2791
Imamo niske oblake
koji se ponašaju kao suncobran,
koji se ponašaju kao suncobran,
06:55
cooling the planet,
136
403287
1369
rashlađuju planetu,
06:56
and high clouds which act
like a greenhouse,
like a greenhouse,
137
404680
2919
i visoke oblake koji se ponašaju
poput staklene bašte,
poput staklene bašte,
06:59
warming the planet.
138
407623
1186
zagrevaju planetu.
07:01
Right now, these two effects --
they don't cancel out.
they don't cancel out.
139
409425
3241
Upravo sad, ova dva efekta -
ne poništavaju se.
ne poništavaju se.
07:04
That sunshade -- it's a little
bit more powerful.
bit more powerful.
140
412690
3418
Taj suncobran - malčice je moćniji.
07:08
So if we got rid
of all the clouds tomorrow,
of all the clouds tomorrow,
141
416132
3078
Pa, kad bismo se otarasili
svih oblaka sutra,
svih oblaka sutra,
07:11
which, for the record,
I am not advocating,
I am not advocating,
142
419234
3214
za šta se, samo da se zna, ne zalažem,
07:14
our planet would get warmer.
143
422472
1830
naša planeta bi bila toplija.
07:17
So clearly, all of the clouds
are not going away.
are not going away.
144
425055
3731
Dakle, očito, svi oblaci neće nestati.
07:20
But climate change is change.
145
428810
2272
Ali klimatska promena je promena.
07:23
So we can ask:
146
431528
1410
Pa, možemo da se zapitamo:
07:24
How will global warming change clouds?
147
432962
3088
kako će globalno zagrevanje
da promeni oblake?
da promeni oblake?
07:28
But remember, clouds are so important
148
436876
2814
Zapamtite, oblaci su veoma važni
07:31
in regulating the earth's temperature,
149
439714
2098
za regulisanje zemljine temperature
07:33
and they both warm and cool the planet.
150
441836
2711
i oni i zagrevaju i rashlađuju planetu.
07:36
So even small changes to cloud cover
151
444571
3080
Te čak i male promene
u oblačnom prekrivaču
u oblačnom prekrivaču
07:39
could have profound consequences.
152
447675
2081
mogu da imaju suštinske posledice.
07:42
So we might also ask:
153
450240
1960
Pa bismo takođe mogli da se zapitamo:
07:44
How will clouds change global warming?
154
452224
3109
kako će oblaci da promene
globalno zagrevanje?
globalno zagrevanje?
07:47
And that is where there might
be space for hope.
be space for hope.
155
455970
3057
A tu možda ima prostora za nadu.
07:51
If global warming triggers cloud changes
156
459685
3204
Ako globalno zagrevanje pokrene
promene u oblacima
promene u oblacima
07:54
that make for a less powerful greenhouse
or a more effective sunshade,
or a more effective sunshade,
157
462913
5152
koje će da uzrokuju manje snažan efekat
staklene bašte ili efikasniji suncobran,
staklene bašte ili efikasniji suncobran,
08:00
then that would enhance
the cooling power of clouds.
the cooling power of clouds.
158
468089
3690
onda će to da poveća
rashladnu moć oblaka.
rashladnu moć oblaka.
08:03
It would act in opposition
to global warming,
to global warming,
159
471803
3527
To će da deluje u suprotnosti
sa globalnim zagrevanjem,
sa globalnim zagrevanjem,
08:07
and that's what's happening
in those climate models
in those climate models
160
475354
2970
a to se dešava na klimatskim modelima
08:10
that project relatively muted warming.
161
478348
2493
koji predskazuju
relativno ublaženo zagrevanje.
relativno ublaženo zagrevanje.
08:13
But climate models struggle with clouds,
162
481394
3363
Međutim, klimatski modeli
se muče s oblacima,
se muče s oblacima,
08:16
and this uncertainty -- it goes both ways.
163
484781
3154
a ova neizvesnost - kreće se u oba pravca.
08:20
Clouds could help us out
with global warming.
with global warming.
164
488592
2329
Oblaci bi mogli da nam pomognu
kod globalnog zagrevanja.
kod globalnog zagrevanja.
08:23
They could also make it worse.
165
491833
1599
Takođe bi mogli da ga pogoršaju.
08:26
Now, we know that
climate change is happening
climate change is happening
166
494133
2886
Sad, znamo da su klimatske promene u toku
08:29
because we can see it:
167
497043
1765
jer možemo da ih vidimo:
08:30
rising temperatures, melting icecaps,
shifts in rainfall patterns.
shifts in rainfall patterns.
168
498832
5572
porast temperature, topljenje lednika,
izmene u obrascu kišnih padavina.
izmene u obrascu kišnih padavina.
08:36
And you might think that we
could also see it in the clouds.
could also see it in the clouds.
169
504881
3397
I rekli biste da takođe možemo
da ih vidimo u slučaju oblaka.
da ih vidimo u slučaju oblaka.
08:40
But here's something else unfortunate:
170
508302
2516
Međutim, tu imamo još jednu nesreću:
08:42
clouds are really hard to see.
171
510842
2671
oblake je zaista teško videti.
08:46
I see everybody from the Pacific Northwest
172
514434
2046
Vidim da su svi sa pacifičkog severozapada
08:48
is like, "I have some
suggestions for you."
suggestions for you."
173
516504
2199
u fazonu: "Imam par predloga za tebe."
08:50
(Laughter)
174
518727
1024
(Smeh)
08:51
And you guys, we have tried looking up.
175
519775
2596
I, ljudi, probali smo da gledamo nagore.
08:54
(Laughter)
176
522395
1051
(Smeh)
08:55
But in order to do climate science,
177
523470
3019
Ali, kako bismo se bavili klimatologijom,
08:58
we need to see all of the clouds,
everywhere, for a very long time.
everywhere, for a very long time.
178
526513
5133
moramo da vidimo sve oblake,
svuda, tokom veoma dugog perioda.
svuda, tokom veoma dugog perioda.
09:03
And that's what makes it hard.
179
531670
1745
A zbog toga je teško.
09:06
Now, nothing sees more clouds
than a satellite --
than a satellite --
180
534097
4774
Sad, ništa ne gleda
više oblaka od satelita -
više oblaka od satelita -
09:10
not even a British person.
181
538895
1920
čak ni Britanci.
09:12
(Laughter)
182
540839
1121
(Smeh)
09:13
And fortunately, we do have
satellite observations of clouds
satellite observations of clouds
183
541984
5107
I srećom imamo
satelitska posmatranja oblaka
satelitska posmatranja oblaka
09:19
that, like me, date back to the 1980s.
184
547115
2864
koja, baš kao i ja, potiču iz 1980-ih.
09:22
But these satellites
were designed for weather,
were designed for weather,
185
550682
3614
Ali ovi sateliti su napravljeni
za vremenske prilike,
za vremenske prilike,
09:26
not climate.
186
554320
1524
ne za klimatske.
09:27
They weren't in it for the long haul.
187
555868
1914
Nije trebalo da se time bave dugoročno.
09:29
So to get that long-term
trend information,
trend information,
188
557806
2686
Kako bismo dobili informacije
o dugoročnom trendu,
o dugoročnom trendu,
09:32
we need to do climate science.
189
560516
1775
moramo da se bavimo klimatologijom.
09:34
We have to stitch together
the output of multiple satellites
the output of multiple satellites
190
562315
3118
Moramo da spojimo
rezultate velikog broja satelita
rezultate velikog broja satelita
09:37
with different viewing angles and orbits
191
565457
3078
sa različitim uglovima
posmatranja i orbitama
posmatranja i orbitama
i onima koji nose
različitu optičku opremu.
različitu optičku opremu.
09:40
and carrying different camera equipment.
192
568559
1923
09:42
And as a result,
193
570506
1222
A rezultat toga
09:43
there are gaps in our knowledge.
194
571752
2152
su rupe u našem znanju.
09:46
But even from this very cloudy picture,
195
574499
3329
No čak i iz ove krajnje nejasne slike,
09:49
we're starting to get hints
of a possible future.
of a possible future.
196
577852
3163
počinjemo da dobijamo
nagoveštaje izgledne budućnosti.
nagoveštaje izgledne budućnosti.
09:53
When we looked at the observations,
197
581648
2600
Kada smo proveravali opservacije,
09:56
one thing jumped out at us:
198
584272
1816
jedno se izdvojilo:
09:58
the clouds are moving.
199
586672
2029
oblaci se pomeraju.
10:01
As the planet's temperature increases,
200
589693
2489
Kako se temperatura planete povećava,
10:04
high clouds rise up.
201
592206
1932
visoki oblaci se dižu.
10:06
They move to the colder
upper reaches of the atmosphere,
upper reaches of the atmosphere,
202
594686
4230
Pomeraju se ka hladnijim,
gornjim domašajima atmosfere,
gornjim domašajima atmosfere,
10:10
and this means that even
as the planet heats up,
as the planet heats up,
203
598940
3663
a to znači da čak i kad
se planeta zagreva,
se planeta zagreva,
10:14
high clouds don't.
204
602627
1317
visoki oblaci se ne zagrevaju.
10:16
They remain at roughly
the same temperature.
the same temperature.
205
604384
2637
Ostaju sa otprilike istom temperaturom.
10:19
So they are not losing more heat to space.
206
607045
3498
Dakle, ne odaju više toplote u svemir.
10:22
But at the same time,
they're trapping more heat
they're trapping more heat
207
610567
3037
Ali istovremeno zarobljavaju više toplote
10:25
from the warming planet below.
208
613628
1733
od planete ispod koja se zagrejava.
10:27
This intensifies the greenhouse effect.
209
615849
3000
Ovo pojačava efekat staklene bašte.
10:31
High clouds are making
global warming worse.
global warming worse.
210
619794
3746
Zbog visokih oblaka
globalno zagrevanje postaje gore.
globalno zagrevanje postaje gore.
10:36
Clouds are moving
in other dimensions, too.
in other dimensions, too.
211
624382
2465
Oblaci se pomeraju i u drugim dimenzijama.
10:38
The atmospheric circulation,
that large-scale motion
that large-scale motion
212
626871
3005
Atmosfersko kruženje,
to kretanje velikih razmera
to kretanje velikih razmera
10:41
of air and water in the atmosphere,
213
629900
1918
vazduha i vode u atmosferi,
10:43
is changing,
214
631842
1387
menja se,
10:45
and clouds are going with it.
215
633253
2264
a oblaci ga prate.
10:49
On large scales,
216
637216
1606
Na velikim razmerama,
10:50
clouds seem to be moving
from the tropics toward the poles.
from the tropics toward the poles.
217
638846
4112
čini se da se oblaci sele
iz tropskih oblasti ka polovima.
iz tropskih oblasti ka polovima.
10:54
It's kind of like your
grandparents in reverse.
grandparents in reverse.
218
642982
2537
Nalik obrnutom kretanju vaših deka i baka.
10:58
And this matters,
219
646207
1579
A ovo je važno
10:59
because if your job
is to block incoming sunlight,
is to block incoming sunlight,
220
647810
3849
jer, ako vam je posao
da blokirate sunčevu svetlost,
da blokirate sunčevu svetlost,
11:03
you are going to be much
more effective in the tropics
more effective in the tropics
221
651683
3016
bićete daleko efikasniji
u tropskim predelima
u tropskim predelima
11:06
under that intense tropical sun
222
654723
2197
ispod jakog tropskog sunca
11:08
than you are in higher latitudes.
223
656944
1857
nego na višim geografskim širinama.
11:11
So if this keeps up,
224
659272
1870
Pa, ako se ovo nastavi,
11:13
this will also make global warming worse.
225
661166
3097
i ono će da pogorša globalno zagrevanje.
11:16
And what we have not found,
226
664287
2321
A nismo pronašli,
11:18
despite years of looking,
227
666632
2278
uprkos traganja godinama,
11:20
is any indication of the opposite.
228
668934
2578
nagoveštaj da će se desiti suprotno.
11:24
There is no observational evidence
229
672045
2932
Nema zabeleženih dokaza
11:27
that clouds will substantially
slow down global warming.
slow down global warming.
230
675001
3735
da će oblaci značajno
da uspore globalno zagrevanje.
da uspore globalno zagrevanje.
11:32
The earth is not going
to break its own fever.
to break its own fever.
231
680141
3337
Zemlja neće samoj sebi da izleči groznicu.
11:36
Now, there are still uncertainties here.
232
684193
2436
Sad, ovde imamo neke neizvesnosti.
11:39
We don't know for sure
233
687224
2228
Ne znamo zasigurno
11:41
what the future holds.
234
689476
1655
šta će da se desi u budućnosti.
11:43
But we are sending our kids there,
235
691851
2526
Ali šaljemo decu tamo,
11:46
and they are never coming back.
236
694982
1998
i za njih nema povratka.
11:50
I want them to be prepared
for what they'll face,
for what they'll face,
237
698433
3131
Želim da budu spremna
za ono sa čim će se suočiti
za ono sa čim će se suočiti
11:54
and that is why it is so important
238
702300
3243
i zato je toliko važno
11:57
to keep our earth-observing
satellites up there
satellites up there
239
705567
3251
da održavamo satelite gore
koji posmatraju zemlju
koji posmatraju zemlju
12:00
and to hire diverse and smart
and talented people
and talented people
240
708842
3796
i da zapošljavamo različite,
pametne i talentovane ljude
pametne i talentovane ljude
12:04
who do not hate clouds
241
712662
2267
koji ne mrze oblake
12:06
to improve the climate models.
242
714953
1935
kako bismo unapredili klimatske modele.
12:09
But uncertainty is not ignorance.
243
717570
3523
Međutim, neizvesnost nije neznanje.
12:14
We don't know everything,
244
722053
1472
Ne znamo sve,
12:16
but we don't know nothing,
245
724093
1594
ali znamo više od ništa
12:18
and we know what carbon dioxide does.
246
726434
2394
i znamo šta uzrokuje ugljen-dioksid.
12:21
I started my career as an astrophysicist,
247
729831
3164
Započela sam karijeru kao astrofizičarka,
12:25
so you can believe me
248
733019
1482
pa možete da mi verujete
12:26
when I say that this is the greatest
place in the universe.
place in the universe.
249
734525
5457
kad kažem da je ovo
najbolje mesto u univerzumu.
najbolje mesto u univerzumu.
12:33
Other planets might have liquid water.
250
741084
2817
Druge planete možda i imaju tečnu vodu.
12:36
On earth, we have whiskey.
251
744988
3143
Na zemlji imamo viski.
12:40
(Laughter)
252
748155
2013
(Smeh)
12:42
(Applause)
253
750192
5008
(Aplauz)
12:47
We are so lucky to live here,
254
755224
3193
Veoma smo srećni što živimo ovde,
12:51
but let's not push our luck.
255
759590
2094
ali ne izazivajmo sreću.
12:54
I don't think that clouds
will save the planet.
will save the planet.
256
762476
2938
Ne mislim da će oblaci da spase planetu.
12:58
I think that's probably up to us.
257
766225
1688
Mislim da je to verovatno na nama.
13:00
Thank you.
258
768357
1239
Hvala vam.
13:01
(Applause)
259
769620
2950
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kate Marvel - Climate scientistClimate scientist Kate Marvel looks at the big picture of environmental change.
Why you should listen
Kate Marvel is a scientist at Columbia University and the NASA Goddard Institute of Space studies. She uses computer models and satellite observations to monitor and explain the changes happening around us. Her work has suggested that human activities are already affecting global rainfall and cloud patterns. Marvel is committed to sharing the joy and beauty of science with wider audiences.
She has advised journalists, artists and policymakers, written a popular science blog and given frequent public talks. Her writing has appeared in Nautilus Magazine.
Kate Marvel | Speaker | TED.com