TED2017
Kate Marvel: Can clouds buy us more time to solve climate change?
凱特馬爾維: 雲朵可否為我們爭取時間來解決氣候變化的問題﹖
Filmed:
Readability: 3.7
1,287,488 views
毫無疑問氣候變遷是真的，但我們仍有許多不盡了解之處。我們知道得越多，就越有機會減緩氣候的變遷。我們仍然不確定雲朵在氣候變遷當中扮演什麼樣的角色。或許有微小的希望，雲朵能為我們爭取一些時間來處理這個問題，但是雲也可能加劇全球暖化。氣候科學家凱特馬爾維帶我們了解雲朵的科學，以及要醫治地球的發燒需要付出什麼代價。
Kate Marvel - Climate scientist
Climate scientist Kate Marvel looks at the big picture of environmental change. Full bio
Climate scientist Kate Marvel looks at the big picture of environmental change. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I am a climate scientist,
0
905
1729
我是氣候科學家，
00:15
and I hate weather.
1
3214
2763
而我討厭天氣。
00:18
I have spent too much time in California,
2
6001
2406
我花了太多時間在加州，
00:20
and I strongly feel that weather
should be optional.
should be optional.
3
8431
3665
我強烈認為，
天氣應該要是可選擇的。
天氣應該要是可選擇的。
00:24
(Laughter)
4
12120
1134
（笑聲）
00:25
So I don't want to experience clouds,
5
13278
3041
我並不想要體驗雲朵，
00:28
let alone study them.
6
16343
1373
更不用說研究它們了。
00:30
But clouds seem to follow me
wherever I go.
wherever I go.
7
18366
3697
但不論我到哪裡去，
雲朵似乎都跟著我。
雲朵似乎都跟著我。
00:34
The thing is, clouds are a real
challenge for climate science.
challenge for climate science.
8
22822
4481
重點是，對於氣候科學而言，
雲朵是非常有挑戰性的。
雲朵是非常有挑戰性的。
00:39
We don't know how they're going to react
as the planet heats up,
as the planet heats up,
9
27971
3821
我們不知道當地球溫度上升時，
它們會如何反應，
它們會如何反應，
00:43
and hidden in that uncertainty
10
31816
3721
而隱藏在那不確定性中的，
00:47
might be hope.
11
35561
1286
可能是希望。
00:49
Maybe, just maybe,
12
37531
2533
可能，只是可能，
00:52
clouds could slow down global warming,
13
40088
2681
雲朵可能可以減緩全球暖化，
00:54
and buy us a little bit more time
to get our act together,
to get our act together,
14
42793
3647
幫我們爭取一些時間來努力想辦法，
00:58
which would be very convenient right now.
15
46464
2716
對現在會是非常好用的。
01:01
I mean, even I could put up
with a few more cloudy days
with a few more cloudy days
16
49600
4090
我的意思是，即使是我
也願忍受多幾個陰天，
也願忍受多幾個陰天，
如果雲朵能拯救地球的話。
01:05
if clouds saved the planet.
17
53714
2067
01:08
Now, we are sure about some things.
18
56722
2555
我們能確定的有幾件事。
01:11
Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas,
19
59897
2323
二氧化碳是溫室氣體，
01:14
we're emitting a lot of it,
20
62244
1396
我們排放了很多二氧化碳，
01:15
and the planet is heating up.
21
63664
1546
且地球溫度在上升。
01:17
Case closed.
22
65534
1312
結案。
01:19
But I still go to work every day.
23
67507
1855
但我仍然每天都要工作。
01:21
It turns out that there is a lot
that we don't understand
that we don't understand
24
69970
3700
結果發現，
關於氣候改變，還有著很多
我們不了解的地方。
我們不了解的地方。
01:25
about climate change.
25
73694
1467
01:27
In particular, we haven't answered
26
75614
2464
特別是，我們尚未回答
01:30
what seems to be a very
fundamental question.
fundamental question.
27
78102
2884
一個似乎非常基礎的問題。
01:33
We know it's going to get hot,
28
81584
1591
我們知道會越來越熱，
01:35
but we don't know exactly
how hot it's going to get.
how hot it's going to get.
29
83199
3719
但我們不知道究竟會到多熱。
01:39
Now, this is a really
easy question to answer
easy question to answer
30
87672
2939
這是個很容易回答的問題，
01:42
if one of you would like
to give me a time machine.
to give me a time machine.
31
90635
2974
只要有人能給我一台時光機器。
01:45
But I'm going to be honest with you:
32
93633
2461
但我得對各位說實話：
01:48
if I had a time machine,
33
96118
2055
如果我有一台時光機器，
01:50
I would not be hanging out
at this particular point in history.
at this particular point in history.
34
98197
3286
我不會在歷史上的這個時間點逗留。
01:54
So in order to see the future,
35
102229
3053
所以，為了看到未來，
01:57
we have to rely on the output
of computer simulations --
of computer simulations --
36
105306
3614
我們要仰賴電腦模擬的輸出結果──
02:00
climate models, like this one.
37
108944
1963
氣候模型，就像這一個。
02:03
Now, in my line of work,
38
111518
1840
在我的這個行業，
02:05
I encounter many very charming
people on the internet
people on the internet
39
113382
3701
我會在網上遇到許多非常迷人的人，
02:09
who like to tell me
that climate models are all wrong.
that climate models are all wrong.
40
117107
4136
他們會告訴我氣候模型都是錯的。
02:13
And I would just like to say:
41
121942
2316
我只想要說：
02:16
no kidding!
42
124282
1184
別開玩笑了！
02:18
Seriously? I get paid to complain
about climate models.
about climate models.
43
126389
3578
當真嗎？我領薪水來抱怨氣候模型。
02:21
But we don't want models to be perfect.
44
129991
3361
但我們不要求模型完美，
02:25
We want them to be useful.
45
133825
1495
只要有用就好。
02:27
I mean, think about it:
46
135946
1631
想想看：
02:29
a computer simulation
47
137601
2058
能夠完全重製所有現實的電腦模擬。
02:31
that's able to exactly
reproduce all of reality.
reproduce all of reality.
48
139683
3886
02:36
That's not a climate model;
49
144166
1789
那不是氣候模型；
02:38
That's "The Matrix."
50
146495
1572
那是《駭客任務》。
（譯註：電影名稱）
（譯註：電影名稱）
02:41
So, models are not crystal balls.
51
149022
3412
所以，模型不是水晶球。
02:44
They're research tools,
52
152458
1691
它們是研究工具，
02:46
and the ways in which they're wrong
can actually teach us a lot.
can actually teach us a lot.
53
154173
4250
它們錯誤的方式
其實能教我們很多東西。
其實能教我們很多東西。
02:50
For example:
54
158993
1353
比如：
02:52
different climate models
are largely able to capture
are largely able to capture
55
160370
2994
不同的氣候模型能捕捉到大部份
02:55
the warming that we've seen so far.
56
163388
2124
我們目前所看到的暖化現象。
02:57
But fast-forward to the end of the century
57
165536
2768
但快轉到這個世紀末，
03:00
under a business-as-usual scenario,
58
168328
2329
在一切照常的情況下，
03:02
and climate models
don't really agree anymore.
don't really agree anymore.
59
170681
2526
氣候模型就不再一致了。
03:05
Yeah, they're all warming;
that's just basic physics.
that's just basic physics.
60
173787
3192
是的，它們都變暖，
那只是基本的物理。
那只是基本的物理。
03:09
But some of them project catastrophe --
61
177330
3209
但有些模型預測會有大災難──
03:12
more than five times the warming
we've seen already.
we've seen already.
62
180563
2851
暖化的程度是我們
目前已看到的五倍以上；
目前已看到的五倍以上；
03:15
And others are literally more chill.
63
183756
2585
其他模型則預測稍微涼一些。
03:19
So why don't climate models agree
on how warm it's going to get?
on how warm it's going to get?
64
187019
4824
所以，為什麼氣候模型對於
將來有多暖的預測會不一致呢？
將來有多暖的預測會不一致呢？
03:24
Well, to a large extent,
65
192434
2047
有很大的程度，
03:26
it's because they don't agree
on what clouds will do in the future.
on what clouds will do in the future.
66
194505
3580
是因為它們對於雲朵在未來
扮演什麼角色的看法不一致。
扮演什麼角色的看法不一致。
03:30
And that is because, just like me,
67
198752
2771
那是因為，就跟我一樣，
03:33
computers hate clouds.
68
201547
1836
電腦也討厭雲朵。
03:35
Computers hate clouds because
they're simultaneously very large
they're simultaneously very large
69
203819
4190
電腦討厭雲朵
是因為它們同時可大可小。
03:40
and very small.
70
208033
1246
03:41
Clouds are formed
71
209804
1158
雲朵的形成，
03:42
when microscopic water droplets
or ice crystals coalesce
or ice crystals coalesce
72
210986
4625
是顯微鏡才看得到的小水滴或冰晶體
包圍在小粒子的周圍結合。
03:47
around tiny particles.
73
215635
1586
03:49
But at the same time, they cover
two-thirds of the earth's surface.
two-thirds of the earth's surface.
74
217695
3719
但同時，它們覆蓋了
三分之二的地球表面。
三分之二的地球表面。
03:53
In order to really
accurately model clouds,
accurately model clouds,
75
221895
3020
為了要真正精確地建立雲朵的模型，
03:56
we'd need to track the behavior
of every water droplet and dust grain
of every water droplet and dust grain
76
224939
4524
我們必須要追蹤整個大氣當中
每個水滴與塵粒的行為，
04:01
in the entire atmosphere,
77
229487
1442
04:02
and there's no computer
powerful enough to do that.
powerful enough to do that.
78
230953
2501
沒有電腦強大到可以做到這一點。
04:05
So instead, we have to make a trade-off:
79
233856
2761
因此，我們得要做取捨：
04:09
we can zoom in and get the details right,
80
237120
2903
我們可以放大一小塊範圍，
以求細節的正確，
以求細節的正確，
04:12
but have no idea
what's going on worldwide;
what's going on worldwide;
81
240047
2978
但就不知道全世界發生什麼事；
04:15
or, we could sacrifice
realism at small scales
realism at small scales
82
243049
4923
或者，我們可以犧牲
小規模的真實性，
小規模的真實性，
04:19
in order to see the bigger picture.
83
247996
1922
以求看到更大更整體的狀況。
04:22
Now, there's no one right answer,
84
250309
2230
沒有正確的答案，
04:24
no perfect way to do this,
85
252563
1555
沒有完美的方式，
04:26
and different climate models
make different choices.
make different choices.
86
254602
2942
不同的氣候模型會做不同的選擇。
04:30
Now, it is unfortunate
87
258443
2365
很不幸的是，
04:32
that computers struggle with clouds,
88
260832
2338
電腦很難處理雲朵，
04:35
because clouds are crucially important
89
263194
2698
因為雲朵在調節地球溫度上，
04:37
in regulating the temperature
of the planet.
of the planet.
90
265916
2352
扮演非常重要的角色。
04:40
In fact, if all the clouds went away,
91
268634
2571
事實上，如果所有的雲朵都沒了，
04:43
we would experience
profound climate changes.
profound climate changes.
92
271229
3120
我們會經歷到很劇烈的氣候改變。
04:46
But without clouds,
93
274989
1473
但若沒有雲朵，
04:48
would it be warmer or colder?
94
276486
2265
會比較溫暖或比較寒冷？
04:51
The answer is both.
95
279492
1560
答案是，都會。
04:54
So I'm going to be honest with you,
I am not a cloud spotter.
I am not a cloud spotter.
96
282016
3022
老實告訴各位，我不是賞雲者。
04:57
My favorite type of cloud is none.
97
285062
2270
我最喜歡晴朗無雲。
04:59
But even I know that clouds
come in all shapes and sizes.
come in all shapes and sizes.
98
287770
4106
但即使是我這種人，
也知道雲朵有各種形狀大小。
也知道雲朵有各種形狀大小。
05:04
Low, thick clouds like these
are really good at blocking out the sun
are really good at blocking out the sun
99
292567
4220
像這樣的低厚雲層很能夠阻擋陽光，
05:08
and ruining your barbecue,
100
296811
1395
讓你的烤肉活動泡湯；
05:10
and high, wispy clouds like these cirrus
101
298888
2923
而像這些卷雲的高雲，
05:13
largely let that sunlight stream through.
102
301835
2221
會讓大部份的陽光穿過。
05:16
Every sunny day is the same,
103
304616
2397
晴天全都一樣，
05:19
but every cloudy day
is cloudy in its own way.
is cloudy in its own way.
104
307037
2483
但每個陰天有它自己的多雲方式。
05:22
And it's this diversity
105
310037
1958
正是這種多樣性，
05:24
that can make the global impact of clouds
very hard to understand.
very hard to understand.
106
312019
3805
讓雲朵的全球性影響變得難以了解。
05:28
So to see this global effect of clouds,
107
316276
3004
要了解雲朵的全球性效應，
05:31
it really helps to take a selfie.
108
319304
2643
拍張自拍照是很有幫助的。
05:35
It will never cease to blow my mind
109
323138
3501
我們能夠從外太空來看我們的星球，
這點總是讓我感到不可思議，
這點總是讓我感到不可思議，
05:38
that we can see our planet
from outer space,
from outer space,
110
326663
2548
05:41
but we can't see all of it.
111
329872
1641
但我們無法看到它的全部。
05:44
Clouds are blocking the view.
112
332118
1640
雲朵會阻擋視線。
05:46
That's what they do.
113
334300
1365
這是它們的功能之一。
05:47
These low, thick clouds
are extremely effective sunshades.
are extremely effective sunshades.
114
335689
4686
低空的厚雲層是非常有效的遮陽板。
05:52
They turn back about 20 percent
of everything the sun sends us.
of everything the sun sends us.
115
340399
3564
雲朵反射回去 20% 的陽光，
05:56
That is a lot of wasted solar power.
116
344474
2704
浪費掉許多的太陽能。
05:59
So, low clouds are powerful sunshades,
117
347202
2982
所以，低雲是很強大的遮陽板，
06:02
making the planet cooler.
118
350208
1840
讓地球比較涼快。
06:04
But that's not the only effect of clouds.
119
352072
2169
但雲朵的效應不只如此。
06:06
Our planet has a temperature,
120
354946
1572
我們的星球有熱度，
06:08
and like anything with a temperature,
121
356542
2187
就像所有有熱度的東西一樣，
06:10
it's giving off heat.
122
358753
1345
它會散熱。
06:12
We are radiating thermal energy
away into space,
away into space,
123
360649
3326
我們向太空輻射熱能。
06:15
and we can see this in the infrared.
124
363999
2845
這現象用紅外線就可以看到。
06:18
Once again, clouds are blocking the view.
125
366868
3111
同樣的，雲朵會阻擋視線。
06:22
That's because high clouds live
in the upper reaches of the atmosphere,
in the upper reaches of the atmosphere,
126
370387
3803
那是因為高雲位在大氣的上層，
06:26
where it's very cold.
127
374214
1373
那裡非常寒冷。
06:27
And this means that they lose
very little heat to space themselves.
very little heat to space themselves.
128
375991
3698
這意味著它們本身
散失到太空的熱能很少。
散失到太空的熱能很少。
06:31
But at the same time, they block
the heat coming up from the planet below.
the heat coming up from the planet below.
129
379713
4391
但同時，它們阻擋了
下方的地球向上散熱。
下方的地球向上散熱。
06:36
The earth is trying to cool itself off,
130
384128
2875
地球試著冷卻自己，
06:39
and high clouds are getting in the way.
131
387027
2509
而高雲卻從中作梗。
06:42
The result is a very
powerful greenhouse effect.
powerful greenhouse effect.
132
390163
4074
結果就是非常強大的溫室效應。
06:46
So, clouds play this very
large and dual role
large and dual role
133
394999
3854
所以，雲朵在氣候系統中
扮演著非常大的雙重角色。
06:50
in the climate system.
134
398877
1571
06:52
We've got low clouds that act
like a sunshade,
like a sunshade,
135
400472
2791
我們有低雲當遮陽板，
06:55
cooling the planet,
136
403287
1369
冷卻地球，
06:56
and high clouds which act
like a greenhouse,
like a greenhouse,
137
404680
2919
也有高雲當溫室，
06:59
warming the planet.
138
407623
1186
暖化地球。
07:01
Right now, these two effects --
they don't cancel out.
they don't cancel out.
139
409425
3241
現今，這兩種效應並不會互相抵消。
07:04
That sunshade -- it's a little
bit more powerful.
bit more powerful.
140
412690
3418
遮陽的力量稍大一些些。
07:08
So if we got rid
of all the clouds tomorrow,
of all the clouds tomorrow,
141
416132
3078
所以，如果我們明天
就清除所有的雲朵──
就清除所有的雲朵──
07:11
which, for the record,
I am not advocating,
I am not advocating,
142
419234
3214
聲明一下，我沒在提倡這件事喔──
07:14
our planet would get warmer.
143
422472
1830
那麼地球就會暖化。
07:17
So clearly, all of the clouds
are not going away.
are not going away.
144
425055
3731
所以很顯然，雲不會消失。
07:20
But climate change is change.
145
428810
2272
但氣候改變就是改變。
07:23
So we can ask:
146
431528
1410
所以我們可以問：
07:24
How will global warming change clouds?
147
432962
3088
全球暖化會如何改變雲朵？
07:28
But remember, clouds are so important
148
436876
2814
但切記雲朵
在調節地球溫度的重要角色，
07:31
in regulating the earth's temperature,
149
439714
2098
07:33
and they both warm and cool the planet.
150
441836
2711
它們會冷卻也會暖化地球。
07:36
So even small changes to cloud cover
151
444571
3080
所以即使雲朵的覆蓋稍微變了，
07:39
could have profound consequences.
152
447675
2081
也可能會造成深切的影響。
07:42
So we might also ask:
153
450240
1960
所以我們也可以問：
07:44
How will clouds change global warming?
154
452224
3109
雲朵會如何改變全球暖化？
07:47
And that is where there might
be space for hope.
be space for hope.
155
455970
3057
那可能是能找到希望的地方。
07:51
If global warming triggers cloud changes
156
459685
3204
如果全球暖化觸發了雲朵的改變，
07:54
that make for a less powerful greenhouse
or a more effective sunshade,
or a more effective sunshade,
157
462913
5152
導致溫室變弱、
或遮陽板變得更有效，
或遮陽板變得更有效，
08:00
then that would enhance
the cooling power of clouds.
the cooling power of clouds.
158
468089
3690
那麼那就會強化雲朵的冷卻力。
08:03
It would act in opposition
to global warming,
to global warming,
159
471803
3527
它的功能就會和全球暖化正好相反，
08:07
and that's what's happening
in those climate models
in those climate models
160
475354
2970
那就是那些預測暖化將會緩和的
08:10
that project relatively muted warming.
161
478348
2493
氣候模型中所發生的現象。
08:13
But climate models struggle with clouds,
162
481394
3363
但，氣候模型很難處理雲朵，
08:16
and this uncertainty -- it goes both ways.
163
484781
3154
而這不確定性是雙向的。
08:20
Clouds could help us out
with global warming.
with global warming.
164
488592
2329
雲朵能協助我們處理全球暖化，
08:23
They could also make it worse.
165
491833
1599
也可能讓它惡化。
08:26
Now, we know that
climate change is happening
climate change is happening
166
494133
2886
現在，我們知道氣候改變正在發生，
08:29
because we can see it:
167
497043
1765
因為我們看見：
08:30
rising temperatures, melting icecaps,
shifts in rainfall patterns.
shifts in rainfall patterns.
168
498832
5572
氣溫上升、冰山溶化、
降雨模式轉變。
降雨模式轉變。
08:36
And you might think that we
could also see it in the clouds.
could also see it in the clouds.
169
504881
3397
你可能會認為，我們也能
在雲朵上看到改變。
在雲朵上看到改變。
08:40
But here's something else unfortunate:
170
508302
2516
但還有件不幸的事：
08:42
clouds are really hard to see.
171
510842
2671
雲朵真的很難看見。
08:46
I see everybody from the Pacific Northwest
172
514434
2046
我看見來自太平洋西北地區的每個人
08:48
is like, "I have some
suggestions for you."
suggestions for you."
173
516504
2199
都像在說：「我想給你些建議。」
08:50
(Laughter)
174
518727
1024
（笑聲）
08:51
And you guys, we have tried looking up.
175
519775
2596
各位，我們有試過抬頭向上看了。
08:54
(Laughter)
176
522395
1051
（笑聲）
08:55
But in order to do climate science,
177
523470
3019
但為了要做氣候科學，
08:58
we need to see all of the clouds,
everywhere, for a very long time.
everywhere, for a very long time.
178
526513
5133
我們得要看見各處的所有雲朵，
且持續很長一段時間。
且持續很長一段時間。
09:03
And that's what makes it hard.
179
531670
1745
那就是困難之處。
09:06
Now, nothing sees more clouds
than a satellite --
than a satellite --
180
534097
4774
現在，能看見最多雲朵的就是衞星，
09:10
not even a British person.
181
538895
1920
連英國人都看不到那麼多。
09:12
(Laughter)
182
540839
1121
（笑聲）
09:13
And fortunately, we do have
satellite observations of clouds
satellite observations of clouds
183
541984
5107
幸運的是，我們的確有
衛星觀測雲朵的資料，
衛星觀測雲朵的資料，
09:19
that, like me, date back to the 1980s.
184
547115
2864
就像我，可追溯到 1980 年代。
09:22
But these satellites
were designed for weather,
were designed for weather,
185
550682
3614
但這些衛星是為了天氣設計的，
09:26
not climate.
186
554320
1524
不是氣候。
09:27
They weren't in it for the long haul.
187
555868
1914
它們無法持久。
09:29
So to get that long-term
trend information,
trend information,
188
557806
2686
若要取得長期趨勢的資訊，
09:32
we need to do climate science.
189
560516
1775
我們必須要做氣候科學。
09:34
We have to stitch together
the output of multiple satellites
the output of multiple satellites
190
562315
3118
我們得把不同視角、運行軌道，
09:37
with different viewing angles and orbits
191
565457
3078
帶著不同照相設備的多個衛星
09:40
and carrying different camera equipment.
192
568559
1923
所輸出的資料結合起來。
09:42
And as a result,
193
570506
1222
而結果和我們的知識有差距。
09:43
there are gaps in our knowledge.
194
571752
2152
09:46
But even from this very cloudy picture,
195
574499
3329
但即使是從這像多雲一樣
非常朦朧的狀況中，
非常朦朧的狀況中，
09:49
we're starting to get hints
of a possible future.
of a possible future.
196
577852
3163
我們也開始得到些關於
可能發生之未來的暗示。
可能發生之未來的暗示。
09:53
When we looked at the observations,
197
581648
2600
當我們看這些觀測資料時，
09:56
one thing jumped out at us:
198
584272
1816
有一點引起了我們的注意：
09:58
the clouds are moving.
199
586672
2029
雲朵在移動。
10:01
As the planet's temperature increases,
200
589693
2489
隨著地球溫度上升，
10:04
high clouds rise up.
201
592206
1932
高雲會上升。
10:06
They move to the colder
upper reaches of the atmosphere,
upper reaches of the atmosphere,
202
594686
4230
它們移向大氣中更上層更冷的地方，
10:10
and this means that even
as the planet heats up,
as the planet heats up,
203
598940
3663
這意味著，即使地球在變暖，
10:14
high clouds don't.
204
602627
1317
高雲卻不會。
10:16
They remain at roughly
the same temperature.
the same temperature.
205
604384
2637
它們的溫度大致上維持相同。
10:19
So they are not losing more heat to space.
206
607045
3498
所以它們並沒有散失更多熱到太空。
10:22
But at the same time,
they're trapping more heat
they're trapping more heat
207
610567
3037
但同時卻圈住了更多
10:25
from the warming planet below.
208
613628
1733
在下方暖化中的地球的熱能。
10:27
This intensifies the greenhouse effect.
209
615849
3000
這會讓溫室效應加劇。
10:31
High clouds are making
global warming worse.
global warming worse.
210
619794
3746
高雲會讓全球暖化的情況更糟。
10:36
Clouds are moving
in other dimensions, too.
in other dimensions, too.
211
624382
2465
雲朵也向其他維度移動。
10:38
The atmospheric circulation,
that large-scale motion
that large-scale motion
212
626871
3005
大氣環流，
大氣中空氣和水的大規模移動
10:41
of air and water in the atmosphere,
213
629900
1918
10:43
is changing,
214
631842
1387
正在改變，
10:45
and clouds are going with it.
215
633253
2264
而雲朵也隨之移動。
10:49
On large scales,
216
637216
1606
大規模來看，
10:50
clouds seem to be moving
from the tropics toward the poles.
from the tropics toward the poles.
217
638846
4112
雲朵似乎是從熱帶移向極地。
10:54
It's kind of like your
grandparents in reverse.
grandparents in reverse.
218
642982
2537
這有點像是你的祖父母返老還童。
10:58
And this matters,
219
646207
1579
這有其重要性，
10:59
because if your job
is to block incoming sunlight,
is to block incoming sunlight,
220
647810
3849
因為如果你要阻擋太陽光射進來，
11:03
you are going to be much
more effective in the tropics
more effective in the tropics
221
651683
3016
你身在熱帶會有效許多，
11:06
under that intense tropical sun
222
654723
2197
熱帶的太陽非常強烈，
11:08
than you are in higher latitudes.
223
656944
1857
在較高的緯度就比較沒效。
11:11
So if this keeps up,
224
659272
1870
所以如果繼續這樣下去，
11:13
this will also make global warming worse.
225
661166
3097
這也會讓全球暖化再惡化。
11:16
And what we have not found,
226
664287
2321
儘管花了數年在尋找，
11:18
despite years of looking,
227
666632
2278
我們仍然尚未發現
11:20
is any indication of the opposite.
228
668934
2578
任何顯示相反情況的徵兆。
11:24
There is no observational evidence
229
672045
2932
觀察到的證據未能證明
11:27
that clouds will substantially
slow down global warming.
slow down global warming.
230
675001
3735
雲朵在本質上能減緩全球暖化。
11:32
The earth is not going
to break its own fever.
to break its own fever.
231
680141
3337
地球並不會治好它自己的發燒。
11:36
Now, there are still uncertainties here.
232
684193
2436
這裡仍然有著不確定性。
11:39
We don't know for sure
233
687224
2228
我們不能確定
11:41
what the future holds.
234
689476
1655
未來會怎樣。
11:43
But we are sending our kids there,
235
691851
2526
但我們的孩子正朝向未來的不歸路。
11:46
and they are never coming back.
236
694982
1998
11:50
I want them to be prepared
for what they'll face,
for what they'll face,
237
698433
3131
我警告他們，對將要
面臨的狀況要有心理準備，
面臨的狀況要有心理準備，
11:54
and that is why it is so important
238
702300
3243
因此，非常重要的事就是要讓那些
11:57
to keep our earth-observing
satellites up there
satellites up there
239
705567
3251
觀察地球的衛星能繼續在天上運行，
12:00
and to hire diverse and smart
and talented people
and talented people
240
708842
3796
並要僱用多樣化、聰明有才華的人，
12:04
who do not hate clouds
241
712662
2267
不討厭雲朵的人，
12:06
to improve the climate models.
242
714953
1935
來改善氣候模型。
12:09
But uncertainty is not ignorance.
243
717570
3523
但不確定性並不等同無知。
12:14
We don't know everything,
244
722053
1472
我們並非全知，
12:16
but we don't know nothing,
245
724093
1594
但也不是全然無知，
12:18
and we know what carbon dioxide does.
246
726434
2394
且我們知道二氧化碳的影響。
12:21
I started my career as an astrophysicist,
247
729831
3164
我最初的職業是天體物理學家，
12:25
so you can believe me
248
733019
1482
所以你們可以相信我，
12:26
when I say that this is the greatest
place in the universe.
place in the universe.
249
734525
5457
我說這裡是宇宙中最棒的地方。
12:33
Other planets might have liquid water.
250
741084
2817
其他的星球可能有液態水。
12:36
On earth, we have whiskey.
251
744988
3143
在地球，我們有威士忌。
12:40
(Laughter)
252
748155
2013
（笑聲）
12:42
(Applause)
253
750192
5008
（掌聲）
12:47
We are so lucky to live here,
254
755224
3193
我們如此有幸能住在這裡，
12:51
but let's not push our luck.
255
759590
2094
但不要得寸進尺以為好運會長久。
12:54
I don't think that clouds
will save the planet.
will save the planet.
256
762476
2938
我不認為雲朵能拯救地球。
12:58
I think that's probably up to us.
257
766225
1688
拯救地球的責任可能要由我們承擔。
13:00
Thank you.
258
768357
1239
謝謝。
13:01
(Applause)
259
769620
2950
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kate Marvel - Climate scientistClimate scientist Kate Marvel looks at the big picture of environmental change.
Why you should listen
Kate Marvel is a scientist at Columbia University and the NASA Goddard Institute of Space studies. She uses computer models and satellite observations to monitor and explain the changes happening around us. Her work has suggested that human activities are already affecting global rainfall and cloud patterns. Marvel is committed to sharing the joy and beauty of science with wider audiences.
She has advised journalists, artists and policymakers, written a popular science blog and given frequent public talks. Her writing has appeared in Nautilus Magazine.
Kate Marvel | Speaker | TED.com