TEDxMidAtlantic
Tyler Cowen: Be suspicious of simple stories
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Like all of us, economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But in this intriguing talk, he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives -- and our messy, complicated irrational world -- in terms of a simple narrative.
Tyler Cowen - Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:36
I was told to come here
and tell you all stories,
and tell you all stories,
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我被叫来和大家分享趣闻轶事，
00:39
but what I'd like to do is instead
tell you why I'm suspicious of stories,
tell you why I'm suspicious of stories,
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而我想说的是，
为什么我不相信趣闻轶事，
为什么我不相信趣闻轶事，
00:43
why stories make me nervous.
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因为它们让我紧张。
00:45
In fact, the more inspired
a story makes me feel,
a story makes me feel,
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实际上，这种故事越激动人心，
00:49
very often, the more nervous I get.
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很多时候，我就会越紧张。
00:51
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:52
So the best stories
are often the trickiest ones.
are often the trickiest ones.
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最好的故事往往都带有欺骗性。
00:55
The good and bad things about stories
is that they are a kind of filter.
is that they are a kind of filter.
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它们就像过滤器，
有优点，也有缺点。
有优点，也有缺点。
00:58
They take a lot of information,
and they leave some of it out,
and they leave some of it out,
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在获取大量信息时，
它们会过滤掉无用的部分，
它们会过滤掉无用的部分，
01:01
and they keep some of it in.
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留下有用的内容。
01:03
But the thing about this filter is
that it always leaves the same things in.
that it always leaves the same things in.
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然而这个过滤器有个问题，
它总是保留相同的信息。
它总是保留相同的信息。
01:07
You're always left
with the same few simple stories.
with the same few simple stories.
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结果就是我们总是看到几类
简单相似的故事。
简单相似的故事。
01:10
There is the old saying
that just about every story
that just about every story
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有句老话说：所有的故事
都可以总结为
都可以总结为
01:13
can be summed up
as "a stranger came to town."
as "a stranger came to town."
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“镇上来了一个陌生人。”
01:16
There is a book by Christopher Booker,
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克里斯朵夫·布克写过一本书，
01:18
where he claims there are really
just seven types of stories.
just seven types of stories.
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他认为故事一共只有7种类型：
魔鬼妖怪，白手起家，追求梦想，
01:21
There is monster, rags to riches, quest,
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01:23
voyage and return,
comedy, tragedy, rebirth.
comedy, tragedy, rebirth.
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探险凯旋，喜剧，悲剧以及重生。
01:27
You don't have to agree
with that list exactly,
with that list exactly,
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你不必完全认同这份清单，
01:30
but the point is this:
if you think in terms of stories,
if you think in terms of stories,
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但重点是：如果让你
思考一下故事的种类，
思考一下故事的种类，
01:33
you're telling yourself the same things
over and over again.
over and over again.
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你也会再三重复相同的东西。
01:37
There was a study done,
we asked some people--
we asked some people--
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我们做了一项研究，
进行了一次问卷调查——
进行了一次问卷调查——
01:46
people were asked to describe their lives.
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请人们描述一下自己的生活。
01:49
When asked to describe their lives,
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当问到这个问题时，
01:51
what is interesting
is how few people said "mess".
is how few people said "mess".
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有趣的是居然没几个人说“一团糟”。
01:54
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:56
It's probably the best answer,
I don't mean that in a bad way.
I don't mean that in a bad way.
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其实这才是最佳答案，
我决无贬低之意。
我决无贬低之意。
02:00
"Mess" can be liberating,
"mess" can be empowering,
"mess" can be empowering,
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“一团糟”会让人
感到解脱，感到自由，
感到解脱，感到自由，
02:02
"mess" can be a way
of drawing upon multiple strengths.
of drawing upon multiple strengths.
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它也许还能汇聚多种力量。
02:06
But what people wanted to say was,
"My life is a journey."
"My life is a journey."
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但大家最想说的是：
“我的人生是一个旅程。”
“我的人生是一个旅程。”
02:10
51% wanted to turn
his or her life into a story.
his or her life into a story.
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有51%的人想把
自己的人生变成一个故事。
自己的人生变成一个故事。
02:15
11% said, "My life is a battle."
Again, that is a kind of story.
Again, that is a kind of story.
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11%的人认为，“我的人生是一场战斗。”
这又是一种故事。
这又是一种故事。
02:20
8% said, "My life is a novel."
5% said, "My life is a play."
5% said, "My life is a play."
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8%认为，“我的人生是一部小说。”
5%说，“我的人生是一场戏剧。”
5%说，“我的人生是一场戏剧。”
02:24
I don't think anyone said,
"My life is a reality TV show."
"My life is a reality TV show."
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我相信不会有人说，
“我的人生是一场电视真人秀。”
“我的人生是一场电视真人秀。”
02:27
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:28
But again, we're imposing order
on the mess we observe,
on the mess we observe,
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但是我们硬是把常见的混乱秩序化，
02:32
and it's taking the same patterns,
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形成相同的模式，
02:34
and the thing is when something
is in the form of a story,
is in the form of a story,
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而当事情以故事的形式出现时，
02:37
often, we remember it when we shouldn't.
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我们总是记得特别清楚。
02:39
So how many of you know the story
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你们中有多少人记得
02:41
about George Washington
and the cherry tree?
and the cherry tree?
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乔治·华盛顿和樱桃树的故事？
02:44
It's not obvious that is
exactly what happened.
exactly what happened.
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而真相也许并非如此。
02:46
The story of Paul Revere, it's not obvious
that that is exactly the way it happened.
that that is exactly the way it happened.
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还有保罗·雷维尔的故事，
事实也并非如此。
事实也并非如此。
02:51
So again, we should be
suspicious of stories.
suspicious of stories.
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所以，我们应该对故事持怀疑态度。
02:55
We're biologically programmed
to respond to them.
to respond to them.
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本能使我们对它们作出反应。
02:58
They contain a lot of information.
They have social power.
They have social power.
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它们涵盖的内容丰富，
有巨大的社会影响力，
有巨大的社会影响力，
03:01
They connect us to other people.
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让我们与他人息息相关。
03:03
So they are like a candy that we're fed
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当聆听政治信息，或阅读小说时，
03:05
when we consume political information,
when we read novels.
when we read novels.
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这些故事好似我们口中的糖果；
03:09
When we read non-fiction books,
we're really being fed stories.
we're really being fed stories.
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而当阅读非小说类文献时，
我们实际上是在阅读故事。
我们实际上是在阅读故事。
03:12
Non-fiction is, in a sense,
the new fiction.
the new fiction.
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非小说类读物，从某种意义上讲
已成为了新式的小说。
已成为了新式的小说。
03:15
The book may happen to say true things,
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这些书可能讲述的是事实，
03:18
but again, everything's taking
the same form of these stories.
the same form of these stories.
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但不得不再次强调，
这一切都在以故事的形式出现。
这一切都在以故事的形式出现。
03:22
So what are the problems
of relying too heavily on stories?
of relying too heavily on stories?
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那么过分依赖故事有什么问题吗？
03:26
You view your life like this
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原本是“一团糟”的生活，
03:28
instead of the mess
that it is or it ought to be.
that it is or it ought to be.
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你却以这种方式来看待。
03:31
But more specifically,
I think of a few major problems
I think of a few major problems
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具体点说，如果我们
都以叙事的方式解释人生，
都以叙事的方式解释人生，
03:35
when we think too much
in terms of narrative.
in terms of narrative.
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我认为这里有几个问题。
03:39
First, narratives tend to be too simple,
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第一，叙述往往简单化，
03:41
for the point of a narrative
is to strip it away,
is to strip it away,
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为了叙述事件，我们去除细节，
03:43
not just into 18 minutes,
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十几分钟都绰绰有余，
03:45
but most narratives
you can present in a sentence or two.
you can present in a sentence or two.
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大多数叙述甚至
可以简化成一两句话。
可以简化成一两句话。
03:48
When you strip away detail,
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当你去除细节时，
03:50
you tend to tell stories
in terms of good versus evil,
in terms of good versus evil,
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你的故事往往只注重善恶之分，
03:54
whether it's a story about your own life
or a story about politics.
or a story about politics.
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无论是涉及你自己的故事
还是政治事件。
还是政治事件。
03:58
I know some things actually are
good versus evil, we all know this, right?
good versus evil, we all know this, right?
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而很多事情并不是非好则坏，
大家都知道这点，对吧？
大家都知道这点，对吧？
04:02
But I think, as a general rule,
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但一般情况下，
04:03
we're too inclined to tell
the good versus evil story.
the good versus evil story.
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我们太喜欢讲述
正义对抗邪恶的故事。
正义对抗邪恶的故事。
04:07
As a simple rule of thumb,
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就经验法则来说，
04:09
just imagine that every time
you're telling a good versus evil story,
you're telling a good versus evil story,
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记住每讲一次
正义对抗邪恶的故事，
正义对抗邪恶的故事，
04:13
you're basically lowering your IQ
by ten points or more.
by ten points or more.
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你的智商就降低了十个点以上。
04:17
If you just adopt that
as a kind of inner mental habit,
as a kind of inner mental habit,
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如果你把它作为一种内在的心理习惯，
04:20
it's, in my view, one way to get
a lot smarter pretty quickly.
a lot smarter pretty quickly.
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在我看来，
这是一种聪明速成法。
这是一种聪明速成法。
04:24
You don't have to read any books.
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你不必阅读任何书籍，
04:25
Just imagine yourself pressing a button
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只要想象一下，
04:27
every time you tell
the good versus evil story,
the good versus evil story,
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每次你讲述正义对抗邪恶的故事，
04:30
and by pressing that button,
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就像按下一个按钮，
04:32
you're lowering your IQ
by ten points or more.
by ten points or more.
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你的智商就降低至少十个点。
04:35
Another set of stories that are popular--
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另一套流行的故事——
04:37
if you know Oliver Stone's movies,
or Michael Moore's movies,
or Michael Moore's movies,
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就像奥利弗·斯通的电影，
或迈克尔·摩尔的电影。
或迈克尔·摩尔的电影。
04:40
you can't make a movie and say:
"It was all a big accident."
"It was all a big accident."
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你不可能拍了个电影，
却说"这是个天大的意外。"
却说"这是个天大的意外。"
04:44
No, it has to be a conspiracy,
people plotting together,
people plotting together,
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不可能，一定是有预谋的，
是人们在一起策划的，
是人们在一起策划的，
04:48
because in a story,
a story is about intention.
a story is about intention.
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因为故事最终都有它的意图。
04:52
A story is not about spontaneous order
or complex human institutions
or complex human institutions
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故事的重点不在于自发的秩序，
或复杂的社会机制——
或复杂的社会机制——
04:56
which are the product of human action,
but not of human design.
but not of human design.
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它是人类活动的产物，
而非人类设计的。
而非人类设计的。
04:59
No, a story is about evil people
plotting together.
plotting together.
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故事强调的是
邪恶的人们凑在一起搞阴谋。
邪恶的人们凑在一起搞阴谋。
05:03
So when you hear stories about plots,
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所以，当你听到搞阴谋的故事，
05:06
or even stories about good people
plotting things together,
plotting things together,
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甚至是好人在一起策划时，
05:09
just like when you're watching movies,
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就如同看电影一样值得注意，
05:11
this, again, is reason to be suspicious.
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因为这便是值得怀疑的原因。
05:14
As a good rule of thumb, if you're asking:
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依据黄金法则，你应该问：
05:16
"When I hear a story, when should I
be especially suspicious?"
be especially suspicious?"
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“当我听到故事的时候，
什么时候应该持怀疑态度？”
什么时候应该持怀疑态度？”
05:19
If you hear a story and you think:
"Wow, that would make a great movie!"
"Wow, that would make a great movie!"
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如果你听到一个故事，直接的反应是：
“哇，那会是部好电影！”
“哇，那会是部好电影！”
05:24
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:25
That's when the "uh-oh" reaction
should pop in a bit more,
should pop in a bit more,
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这便是“ 不对，等一下”
应该出现的时刻，
应该出现的时刻，
05:29
and you should start thinking in terms
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你应该试问：
05:31
of how the whole thing
is maybe a bit of a mess.
is maybe a bit of a mess.
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整个事情是否显得有点乱七八糟？
05:35
Another common story or storyline is
the claim that we "have to get tough".
the claim that we "have to get tough".
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另一个常见的故事或情节
就是宣扬我们“必须要强硬起来”。
就是宣扬我们“必须要强硬起来”。
05:41
You'll hear this in so many contexts.
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它出现在多种情况下：
05:43
We have to get tough with the banks.
We had to get tough with the labor unions.
We had to get tough with the labor unions.
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我们要对银行强硬起来，
我们要对工会强硬起来，
我们要对工会强硬起来，
05:48
We need to get tough
with some other country,
with some other country,
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我们要对一些国家强硬起来，
05:50
some foreign dictator,
someone we're negotiating with.
someone we're negotiating with.
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要对一些国外强权势力
或谈判对象强硬起来。
或谈判对象强硬起来。
05:54
Again, the point is not
against getting tough.
against getting tough.
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再次强调一下，
重点不在我们要强硬起来，
重点不在我们要强硬起来，
05:57
Sometimes we should get tough.
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有些时候我们确实要强硬起来。
05:58
That we got tough with the Nazis
was a good thing.
was a good thing.
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像对待纳粹就该强硬。
06:02
But this is again a story we fall back
upon all too readily, all too quickly.
upon all too readily, all too quickly.
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但这又是一个我们
太容易快速落入的陷阱。
太容易快速落入的陷阱。
06:08
When we don't really know
why something happened,
why something happened,
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当我们不了解
到底发生了什么的时候，
到底发生了什么的时候，
06:10
we blame someone, and we say:
"We need to get tough with them!"
"We need to get tough with them!"
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我们总是责怪他人：
“我们应该对他们强硬起来！”
“我们应该对他们强硬起来！”
06:14
As if it had never occurred
to your predecessor,
to your predecessor,
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就好像你的前任
06:16
this idea of getting tough.
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从没有过这个想法似的。
06:18
I view it usually
as a kind of mental laziness.
as a kind of mental laziness.
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我认为这是一种思想上的懒惰。
06:21
It's a simple story you tell:
"We need to get tough,
"We need to get tough,
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你只是简单地强调：
06:25
we needed to get tough,
we will have to get tough."
we will have to get tough."
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“我们需要变得强硬，
我们必须强硬起来。“
我们必须强硬起来。“
06:27
Usually, that is a kind of warning signal.
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通常这只能算是一种警告。
06:31
Another kind of problem with stories is
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故事的另一个问题是，
06:34
you can only fit so many stories
into your mind at once,
into your mind at once,
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你只能在脑海中一次
存放有限的故事，
存放有限的故事，
06:38
or in the course of a day,
or even over the course of a lifetime.
or even over the course of a lifetime.
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可以是在一天中，
甚至是在一生中。
甚至是在一生中。
06:41
So your stories are serving
too many purposes.
too many purposes.
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所以你的故事要达到太多的目的。
06:44
For instance, just to get
out of bed in the morning,
out of bed in the morning,
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例如，只是为了早上起床，
06:46
you tell yourself the story
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你告诉自己你的工作有多重要，
06:49
that your job is really important,
what you're doing is really important
what you're doing is really important
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你手头的工作多么重要；
06:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:54
and maybe it is, but I tell myself
that story even when it's not.
that story even when it's not.
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也许是这样的，即便没有这回事儿，
我们也愿意自欺欺人。
我们也愿意自欺欺人。
07:00
And you know what? That story works.
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你们猜怎么着？
这故事很有说服力。
这故事很有说服力。
07:02
It gets me out of bed.
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它让我大清早干劲儿十足。
07:04
It's a kind of self-deception,
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这就是一种自欺欺人，
07:06
but the problem comes
when I need to change that story.
when I need to change that story.
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但当我想改变它时，
真正的问题来了。
真正的问题来了。
07:09
The whole point of the story is
that I grab onto it and I hold it,
that I grab onto it and I hold it,
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故事的作用在于我可以利用它，
07:13
and it gets me out of bed.
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使我有了起床的动力。
07:15
So when I'm really doing something
that is actually just a waste of time,
that is actually just a waste of time,
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所以，当我们在一片狼藉的生活中，
07:19
in my mess of a life,
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做着浪费时间的事情时，
07:20
I'm too tied into my story
that got me out of bed,
that got me out of bed,
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我们完全依赖于
那个催促我们起床的故事。
那个催促我们起床的故事。
07:25
and ideally, I ought to have some
very complex story map in my mind,
very complex story map in my mind,
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而理想状态下，
我们在脑海中应该有张复杂的构图，
我们在脑海中应该有张复杂的构图，
07:29
you know, with combinatorials
and a matrix of computation, and the like,
and a matrix of computation, and the like,
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包括组合和计算矩阵等，
07:32
but that is not how stories work.
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但故事却不是这样运作的。
07:34
Stories in order to work
have to be simple,
have to be simple,
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故事必须言简意赅，
07:36
easily grasped, easily told
to others, easily remembered.
to others, easily remembered.
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容易理解和讲述，更容易记住。
07:40
So stories will serve dual
and conflicting purposes,
and conflicting purposes,
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故事负有双重责任，
而且目的相左，
而且目的相左，
07:43
and very often they will lead us astray.
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常常使我们误入歧途。
07:46
I used to think I was
within the camp of economists,
within the camp of economists,
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我曾经以为我属于这个经济阵营，
07:49
I was one of the good guys,
and I was allied with other good guys,
and I was allied with other good guys,
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我们这些好的经济学家团结起来，
07:53
and we were fighting
the ideas of the bad guys.
the ideas of the bad guys.
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和那些坏家伙作斗争。
07:56
I used to think that!
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我真是这么想的！
07:58
And probably, I was wrong.
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也许，我错了。
08:00
Maybe sometimes, I'm one of the good guys,
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也许有时候，我是其中的好人。
08:02
but on some issues, I finally realized:
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
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但在一些问题上，我终于意识到：
“嘿，我也并不算好人。”
“嘿，我也并不算好人。”
08:07
I'm not sure I was the bad guy
in the sense of having evil intent,
in the sense of having evil intent,
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我不确定自己是不是有邪念的坏蛋，
08:10
but it was very hard for me
to get away with that story.
to get away with that story.
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但对我来说很难摆脱这个故事。
08:15
One interesting thing
about cognitive biases
about cognitive biases
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近来，有一个有趣的现象，
08:19
is they are the subject
of so many books these days.
of so many books these days.
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众多的书籍都在以认知偏见为主题。
08:22
There's the Nudge book,
the Sway book, the Blink book,
the Sway book, the Blink book,
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例如《推力》、《左右决策的迷惑力》、
《决断两秒钟》，
《决断两秒钟》，
08:26
like the one-title book,
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像这种标题党似的的书籍，
08:28
all about the ways in which we screw up.
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都是在讲述我们如何把事情搞砸，
08:31
And there are so many ways,
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而且方式多种多样，
08:33
but what I find interesting
is that none of these books identify
is that none of these books identify
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但有趣的是，
没有一本书明确指出，
没有一本书明确指出，
08:36
what, to me, is the single, central,
most important way we screw up,
most important way we screw up,
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我们把事情搞砸的本质：
08:40
and that is that we tell
ourselves too many stories,
ourselves too many stories,
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那便是我们给自己编的故事太多了，
08:44
or we are too easily seduced by stories.
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或者说我们太容易被故事诱惑了。
08:47
Why don't these books tell us that?
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这些书为什么不告诉大家
问题的关键呢？
问题的关键呢？
08:49
It's because the books themselves
are all about stories.
are all about stories.
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因为这些书本身就是编的故事。
08:53
The more of these books you read,
you're learning about some of your biases,
you're learning about some of your biases,
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这些书读多了你可能
会意识到你的一些偏见，
会意识到你的一些偏见，
08:56
but you're making some
of your other biases essentially worse.
of your other biases essentially worse.
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但正是这样使你在
某些方面的偏见变本加厉。
某些方面的偏见变本加厉。
09:00
So the books themselves
are part of your cognitive bias.
are part of your cognitive bias.
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所以这些书本身，
成了你认知偏见的一部分。
成了你认知偏见的一部分。
09:04
Often, people buy them
as a kind of talisman, like:
as a kind of talisman, like:
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通常，人们把这些书当作护身符：
“ 我有这本书就不会失去理性了”。
09:07
"I bought this book. I won't be
'Predictably Irrational'."
'Predictably Irrational'."
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09:11
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:13
It's like people want to hear the worst,
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就像人们想听到最坏的消息一样，
09:15
so psychologically, they can prepare
for it or defend against it.
for it or defend against it.
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从心理上讲，他们可以
做好准备接受，或与它抗衡。
做好准备接受，或与它抗衡。
09:19
It's why there is
such a market for pessimism.
such a market for pessimism.
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这就是为什么悲观主义很有市场。
09:22
But to think that by buying the book
gets you somewhere,
gets you somewhere,
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但如果你认为买这种书能使你成功，
09:25
that's maybe the bigger fallacy.
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1918
可能会是个更大的错误。
09:27
It's just like the evidence that shows
that the most dangerous people
that the most dangerous people
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这就像最危险的家伙
09:30
are those who have been taught
some financial literacy.
some financial literacy.
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是那些有些金融知识的人。
09:33
They're the ones who go out
and make the worst mistakes.
and make the worst mistakes.
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他们的错误最糟糕。
09:36
It's the people who realize
they don't know anything at all,
they don't know anything at all,
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倒是那些谦虚的人，
反倒能成功。
09:38
that end up doing pretty well.
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2009
09:41
A third problem with stories
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故事的第三个问题是
09:43
is that outsiders
manipulate us using stories,
manipulate us using stories,
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外界会用故事来操纵我们，
09:46
and we all like to think advertising
only works on the other guy,
only works on the other guy,
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我们都认为广告只对其他人起作用，
09:49
but, of course, that's not how it is,
advertising works on all of us.
advertising works on all of us.
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实际上不是这么回事，
广告对任何人都起作用。
广告对任何人都起作用。
09:54
So if you're too attached to stories,
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所以如果你很相信那些故事，
09:56
what will happen is people
selling products come along,
selling products come along,
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人们就会利用这些
夹杂了广告的故事，
夹杂了广告的故事，
10:00
and they will bundle
their product with a story.
their product with a story.
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销售他们的产品。
10:03
You're like, "Hey, a free story!"
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1647
你呢，就会听信他们的免费故事，
10:04
And you end up buying the product,
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买下他们的产品，
10:06
because the product
and the story go together.
and the story go together.
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2190
因为那些产品是
这些故事的一部分。
这些故事的一部分。
10:08
(Laugther)
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（笑声）
10:09
If you think about how capitalism works,
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如果你在思考资本主义如何运作，
别忘了这里有个偏见。
10:11
there is a bias here.
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1353
10:13
Let's consider two kinds
of stories about cars.
of stories about cars.
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让我们来看看两种车的广告。
10:16
Story A is: "Buy this car,
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2958
故事A：“买这辆车吧，
10:19
and you will have beautiful, romantic
partners and a fascinating life."
partners and a fascinating life."
191
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3618
你会有个漂亮，浪漫的伴侣，
享受高品质的生活。“
享受高品质的生活。“
10:22
(Laughter)
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1510
（笑声）
10:25
There are a lot of people
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1230
这里有很多能从中获利的人，
10:26
who have a financial incentive
to promote that story.
to promote that story.
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2495
会极力宣传这个故事。
10:29
But, say, the alternative story is:
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2098
而另外一个版本的故事是：
10:31
"You don't actually need a car
as nice as your income would indicate.
as nice as your income would indicate.
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3990
“你实际上不需要一辆
和你收入相当的车。
和你收入相当的车。
10:35
What you usually do is look
at what your peers do and copy them.
at what your peers do and copy them.
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3441
你只需要看看身边的同事，
然后模仿他们的生活方式。
然后模仿他们的生活方式。
10:39
That is a good heuristic
for lots of problems,
for lots of problems,
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对于很多问题这都很适用，
但是谈到买车，买丰田就行了。“
10:41
but when it comes to cars,
just buy a Toyota."
just buy a Toyota."
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2323
10:43
(Laughter)
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2180
（笑声）
10:45
Maybe Toyota has an incentive there,
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1741
也许丰田给了赞助，
10:47
but even Toyota is making
more money off the luxury cars,
more money off the luxury cars,
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3196
但即使是丰田，豪华车赚的钱
10:50
and less money off the cheaper cars.
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1937
也比普通车多。
10:52
So if you think which set of stories
you end up hearing,
you end up hearing,
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2680
如果你还不知道你会听哪边，
10:55
you end up hearing the glamor stories,
the seductive stories,
the seductive stories,
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3480
我告诉你，你会听魅力诱人的故事，
10:58
and again I'm telling you,
don't trust them.
don't trust them.
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所以我再次提醒你，千万别信。
11:00
There are people using
your love of stories to manipulate you.
your love of stories to manipulate you.
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有人在利用
你爱听的故事来操纵你。
你爱听的故事来操纵你。
11:06
Pull back and say:
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退一步说：
11:07
"What are the messages,
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“要传递的信息是什么，
如果故事没有任何动机呢？“
11:08
what are the stories
that no one has an incentive to tell?"
that no one has an incentive to tell?"
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2784
11:11
Start telling yourself those, and then see
if any of your decisions change.
if any of your decisions change.
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4587
首先告诉自己这个结论，
然后看看你的决定会不会改变。
然后看看你的决定会不会改变。
11:15
That is one simple way.
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1676
这是个简单易行的方法。
11:17
You can never get out of the pattern
of thinking in terms of stories,
of thinking in terms of stories,
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3461
你永远摆脱不了
对故事的那种思维模式，
对故事的那种思维模式，
11:21
but you can improve the extent
to which you think in stories,
to which you think in stories,
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3636
但你可以提高对故事的认知程度，
11:24
and make some better decisions.
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从而做出更好的决定。
11:27
So if I'm thinking about this talk,
I'm wondering, of course,
I'm wondering, of course,
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3154
说到这个演讲，我当然很想知道，
11:30
what is it you take away from this talk?
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你们能从中学到什么？
11:33
What story do you take away
from Tyler Cowen?
from Tyler Cowen?
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3779
你们从泰勒·考恩的
故事中了解到了什么？
故事中了解到了什么？
11:37
One story you might be
like the story of the quest.
like the story of the quest.
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其中之一，你可以
编个探索人生的故事。
编个探索人生的故事。
11:40
"Tyler was a man on a quest.
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2425
“泰勒正在探索人生的路上，
11:43
Tyler came here, and he told us
not to think so much in terms of stories."
not to think so much in terms of stories."
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他告诉我们不要太相信故事。”
11:49
That would be a story
you could tell about this talk.
you could tell about this talk.
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2490
这便是你可以告诉别人的故事。
11:51
(Laughter)
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1897
（笑声）
11:53
It would fit a pretty well-known pattern.
224
677805
1982
正合我们的套路。
11:55
You might remember it.
You could tell it to other people.
You could tell it to other people.
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2889
你可能还可以这样告诉别人：
11:58
"This weird guy came, and he said,
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“这个奇怪的家伙来了就说，
‘不要听信故事。
让我告诉你今天发生了什么！’ ”
让我告诉你今天发生了什么！’ ”
12:00
'Don't think in terms of stories.
Let me tell you what happened today!'"
Let me tell you what happened today!'"
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（笑声）
12:03
(Laughter)
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1003
然后你开始讲述你的故事。
12:04
And you tell your story.
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1531
12:06
(Laugther)
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1641
（笑声）
12:08
Another possibility is
you might tell a story of rebirth.
you might tell a story of rebirth.
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4322
另一种可能性是，
你可能会讲个重新做人的故事。
你可能会讲个重新做人的故事。
12:13
You might say, "I used to think
too much in terms of stories
too much in terms of stories
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你可能会说，“我曾经太相信故事了。
12:17
(Laughter)
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2742
（笑声）
12:20
but then I heard Tyler Cowen
234
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2118
但后来我听了泰勒·考恩的演讲，
12:22
(Laughter)
235
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966
（笑声）
12:23
and now I think less in terms of stories!"
236
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3274
现在明智多了！“
12:27
That too is a narrative you will remember,
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2800
这个你也会印象很深，
12:29
you can tell to other people,
and again, it may stick.
and again, it may stick.
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3821
你可以讲给别人听，
他们可能也会觉得记忆犹新。
他们可能也会觉得记忆犹新。
12:34
You also could tell
a story of deep tragedy.
a story of deep tragedy.
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4043
你还可以讲一个沉重的悲剧。
12:38
"This guy Tyler Cowen came
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1935
“这个叫泰勒·考恩的家伙来了，
12:40
(Laughter)
241
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1250
（笑声）
12:42
and he told us not to think
in terms of stories,
in terms of stories,
242
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2602
他告诉我们不要听信故事，
12:44
but all he could do was tell us stories
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1938
但他所做的就是给我们讲
12:46
(Laughter)
244
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1066
（笑声）
12:47
about how other people think
too much in terms of stories."
too much in terms of stories."
245
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3961
别人是如何听信故事的。”
12:51
(Laughter)
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1959
（笑声）
12:54
So, today, which is it?
Is it like quest, rebirth, tragedy?
Is it like quest, rebirth, tragedy?
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4619
那么今天的故事
是探索人生，重新作人，还是悲剧？
是探索人生，重新作人，还是悲剧？
12:59
Or maybe some combination of the three?
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2493
或者是三者的组合呢？
13:02
I'm really not sure,
and I'm not here to tell you
and I'm not here to tell you
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2778
我真的不确定，而且我到这里，
13:05
to burn your DVD player
and throw out your Tolstoy.
and throw out your Tolstoy.
250
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3955
不是让你烧掉影碟机，
或扔掉托尔斯泰的大作。
或扔掉托尔斯泰的大作。
13:09
To think in terms of stories
is fundamentally human.
is fundamentally human.
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4292
以故事的方式思考是人的本能。
13:14
There is a Gabriel Garcia Marquez
memoir "Living to Tell the Tale"
memoir "Living to Tell the Tale"
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5203
在加布里埃尔·加西亚·马克斯的
自传“为故事而生”中，
自传“为故事而生”中，
13:19
that we use memory in stories
to make sense of what we've done,
to make sense of what we've done,
253
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3461
我们使用故事中的记忆
去理解我们所做的一切，
去理解我们所做的一切，
13:23
to give meaning to our lives, to establish
connections with other people.
connections with other people.
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4493
给我们的生活带来意义，
与他人建立联系。
与他人建立联系。
13:27
None of this will go away,
should go away, or can go away.
should go away, or can go away.
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这些都不会消失，
不应消失，也不能消失。
不应消失，也不能消失。
13:31
But again, as an economist,
I'm thinking about life on the margin,
I'm thinking about life on the margin,
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4630
但是， 作为经济学家，
我常常思考的是边际人生，
我常常思考的是边际人生，
13:37
the extra decision.
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1616
额外的决策。
13:38
Should we think more in terms of stories,
or less in terms of stories?
or less in terms of stories?
258
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4109
以故事的方式思维，是多多益善，
还是应该尽量避免？
还是应该尽量避免？
13:42
When we hear stories,
should we be more suspicious?
should we be more suspicious?
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当聆听这些故事时，
我们是否应该更加持怀疑态度？
我们是否应该更加持怀疑态度？
13:47
And what kind of stories
should we be suspicious of?
should we be suspicious of?
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我们应该更加怀疑哪种故事呢？
13:49
Again, I'm telling you it's the stories,
very often, that you like the most,
very often, that you like the most,
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再次，我可以告诉你，
正是那些你最喜欢的，
正是那些你最喜欢的，
13:54
that you find the most rewarding,
the most inspiring.
the most inspiring.
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听起来最有价值，
最鼓舞人心的故事。
最鼓舞人心的故事。
13:58
The stories that don't focus
on opportunity cost,
on opportunity cost,
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而那些不把机会成本作为重点，
14:02
or the complex, unintended
consequences of human action,
consequences of human action,
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或是复杂的，表现出
意想不到人类行为的故事，
意想不到人类行为的故事，
14:05
because that very often
does not make for a good story.
does not make for a good story.
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往往却被忽略，
因为它们不是好的素材。
因为它们不是好的素材。
14:09
So often a story is a story
of triumph, a story of struggle;
of triumph, a story of struggle;
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所以，所谓的故事通常是：
正义战胜邪恶，与困难作斗争；
正义战胜邪恶，与困难作斗争；
14:14
there are opposing forces,
which are either evil or ignorant;
which are either evil or ignorant;
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肯定是有一股反对的势力，
不是邪恶便是无知；
不是邪恶便是无知；
14:18
there is a person on a quest,
someone making a voyage,
someone making a voyage,
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某人正在探索的旅途中，
14:22
and a stranger coming to town.
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或陌生人出现了。
14:24
And those are your categories,
but don't let them make you too happy.
but don't let them make you too happy.
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这些都是你喜欢的套路，
但千万别让它们把你蒙骗了。
但千万别让它们把你蒙骗了。
14:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:33
As an alternative,
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另外的一个选择，
14:35
at the margin
- again, no burning of Tolstoy -
- again, no burning of Tolstoy -
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依然不是要你
烧掉托尔斯泰的大作——
烧掉托尔斯泰的大作——
14:39
but just be a little more messy.
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但至少要接受一点儿杂乱的生活。
14:42
If I actually had to live those journeys,
and quests, and battles,
and quests, and battles,
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如果强制我非要踏上那些征程，
进行那些探索或斗争，
进行那些探索或斗争，
14:47
that would be so oppressive to me!
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我会觉得太压抑了！
14:49
It's like, my goodness,
can't I just have my life
can't I just have my life
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那种感觉就像：上帝呀，
14:51
in its messy, ordinary
- I hesitate to use the word - glory
- I hesitate to use the word - glory
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我能不能过一种普通的生活，
可能有些小凌乱，
可能有些小凌乱，
14:55
but that it's fun for me?
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但我很享受这种状态呢？
14:57
Do I really have to follow
some kind of narrative?
some kind of narrative?
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我真的需要听从那些大道理吗？
我能不能只过单纯的日子呢？
14:59
Can't I just live?
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15:01
So be more comfortable with messy.
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所以，学会接受“一团糟”，
15:05
Be more comfortable with agnostic,
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学会接受“不可知”，
15:08
and I mean this about the things
that make you feel good.
that make you feel good.
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我指的是让你感觉良好的事情。
15:10
It's so easy to pick out
a few areas to be agnostic in,
a few areas to be agnostic in,
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很容易就挑出几个
不可知论的领域，
不可知论的领域，
15:13
and then feel good about it,
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同时欣然接受，
比如，“对于宗教或政治，
我是不可知论者。“
我是不可知论者。“
15:14
like, "I am agnostic
about religion, or politics."
about religion, or politics."
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15:18
It's a kind of portfolio move you make
to be more dogmatic elsewhere, right?
to be more dogmatic elsewhere, right?
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而这个策略会变相让你在其他领域
变得更加教条，对吧？
变得更加教条，对吧？
15:22
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:25
Sometimes,
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有时候，
最值得信赖的智慧之人，
在某一领域，
在某一领域，
15:26
the most intellectually trustworthy people
are the ones who pick one area,
are the ones who pick one area,
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却可以教条到完全不可理喻，
15:29
and they are totally dogmatic in that,
so pig-headedly unreasonable,
so pig-headedly unreasonable,
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你会觉得，“他们怎么可能
相信这些呢？“
相信这些呢？“
15:32
that you think,
"How can they possibly believe that?"
"How can they possibly believe that?"
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15:35
But it soaks up their stubbornness,
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这是因为他们
完全沉浸在固执己见当中。
完全沉浸在固执己见当中。
15:40
and then, on other things,
they can be pretty open-minded.
they can be pretty open-minded.
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然而在其他方面，
他们又可以特别开放。
他们又可以特别开放。
15:43
So don't fall into the trap of thinking
because you're agnostic on some things,
because you're agnostic on some things,
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所以，千万别认为
你在一些事情上持“不可知论”，
你在一些事情上持“不可知论”，
就表明你对任何的
自我欺骗，你的故事，
自我欺骗，你的故事，
15:46
that you're being fundamentally reasonable
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你的开明的判断，就一定是理性的。
15:48
about your self-deception, your stories,
and your open-mindedness.
and your open-mindedness.
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15:52
(Laughter)
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( 笑声 )
15:54
[Think about] this idea of hovering,
of epistemological hovering,
of epistemological hovering,
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仔细考虑一下这些想法，
这些天马行空的认知，
这些天马行空的认知，
15:58
and messiness, and incompleteness,
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一团糟，不尽完美，
16:02
[and how] not everything
ties up into a neat bow,
ties up into a neat bow,
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不是每一件事都能那么完美，
16:04
and you're really not on a journey here.
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你也不是在什么征程当中。
16:07
You're here for some
messy reason or reasons,
messy reason or reasons,
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你凌乱的生活有它的原因，
16:10
and maybe you don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
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也许你不知道这原因是什么，
我也不知道，
我也不知道，
16:14
but anyway, I'm happy to be invited,
and thank you all for listening.
and thank you all for listening.
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但无论如何，我不胜荣幸被邀请到这里，
感谢大家的倾听。
感谢大家的倾听。
16:18
(Laughter)
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( 笑声）
16:19
(Applause)
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（掌声）
Translated by Jing Peng
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tyler Cowen - EconomistIn his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce.
Why you should listen
Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and partners with Alex Tabarrok to write the economics blog Marginal Revolution, where he hunts for clues to whatever is coming next, in the space where economics and culture entwine. His outlook is fairly libertarian, but it's not ivory-tower -- in fact, he's been accused of "cute-o-nomics" for daring to use economic models to explain real-world problems instead of theoretical abstractions.
His latest book is a short ebook called The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. In it, he suggests that while the days of easy growth are probably over for the US, it's probably not in a death spiral just yet.
Cowen is also a passionate foodie (check out his blog Tyler Cowen's Ethnic Dining Guide); in fact, his next book is An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.
Find a transcript for Tyler Cowen's TEDxMidAtlantic talk on lesswrong.com >>
Tyler Cowen | Speaker | TED.com