TEDxMidAtlantic
Tyler Cowen: Be suspicious of simple stories
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Like all of us, economist Tyler Cowen loves a good story. But in this intriguing talk, he asks us to step away from thinking of our lives -- and our messy, complicated irrational world -- in terms of a simple narrative.
Tyler Cowen - Economist
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio
In his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:36
I was told to come here
and tell you all stories,
and tell you all stories,
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我被告知要來這裡
告訴你們所有人幾個故事，
告訴你們所有人幾個故事，
00:39
but what I'd like to do is instead
tell you why I'm suspicious of stories,
tell you why I'm suspicious of stories,
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但我反而想要告訴你們
我為什麼對故事抱持猜疑、
我為什麼對故事抱持猜疑、
00:43
why stories make me nervous.
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為什麼故事會讓我緊張。
00:45
In fact, the more inspired
a story makes me feel,
a story makes me feel,
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事實上，故事越讓我感到鼓舞，
00:49
very often, the more nervous I get.
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通常，我就會越緊張。
00:51
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:52
So the best stories
are often the trickiest ones.
are often the trickiest ones.
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所以，最棒的故事通常
也是最微妙棘手的。
也是最微妙棘手的。
00:55
The good and bad things about stories
is that they are a kind of filter.
is that they are a kind of filter.
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故事的好處和壞處是，
它們算是種過濾器。
它們算是種過濾器。
00:58
They take a lot of information,
and they leave some of it out,
and they leave some of it out,
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它們會帶有許多資訊，
它們會遺漏一些資訊，
它們會遺漏一些資訊，
01:01
and they keep some of it in.
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它們也會隱藏一些資訊。
01:03
But the thing about this filter is
that it always leaves the same things in.
that it always leaves the same things in.
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但這種過濾器有一點特色，
就是它們總是會留下同樣的東西。
就是它們總是會留下同樣的東西。
01:07
You're always left
with the same few simple stories.
with the same few simple stories.
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最後你總是會得到
同樣的少數幾個簡單故事。
同樣的少數幾個簡單故事。
01:10
There is the old saying
that just about every story
that just about every story
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有句老諺語說，幾乎每個故事
01:13
can be summed up
as "a stranger came to town."
as "a stranger came to town."
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都可以總結成
「一個陌生人來到鎮上。」
「一個陌生人來到鎮上。」
01:16
There is a book by Christopher Booker,
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這是一本克里斯多夫布克的書，
01:18
where he claims there are really
just seven types of stories.
just seven types of stories.
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書中他宣稱，
其實真正只有七種故事存在：
其實真正只有七種故事存在：
01:21
There is monster, rags to riches, quest,
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怪獸、破碎到富饒、追尋、
01:23
voyage and return,
comedy, tragedy, rebirth.
comedy, tragedy, rebirth.
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航程與返程、喜劇、悲劇、重生。
01:27
You don't have to agree
with that list exactly,
with that list exactly,
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你並不需要完全同意這個清單，
01:30
but the point is this:
if you think in terms of stories,
if you think in terms of stories,
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但重點是：
如果從故事方面來思考，
如果從故事方面來思考，
01:33
you're telling yourself the same things
over and over again.
over and over again.
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你其實是在一而再再而三地
告訴你自己同樣的事情。
告訴你自己同樣的事情。
01:37
There was a study done,
we asked some people--
we asked some people--
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我們做了一項研究，
我們要求人們……
我們要求人們……
01:46
people were asked to describe their lives.
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人們被要求描述他們的人生，
01:49
When asked to describe their lives,
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當人們被要求描述他們的人生，
01:51
what is interesting
is how few people said "mess".
is how few people said "mess".
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有趣的是，人們很少會以
「一團糟」來形容。
「一團糟」來形容。
01:54
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:56
It's probably the best answer,
I don't mean that in a bad way.
I don't mean that in a bad way.
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那可能是最好的答案，
我指的一團糟沒有不好的意思，
我指的一團糟沒有不好的意思，
02:00
"Mess" can be liberating,
"mess" can be empowering,
"mess" can be empowering,
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「一團糟」可能是很自由的，
「一團糟」可能讓人覺得有自主權，
「一團糟」可能讓人覺得有自主權，
02:02
"mess" can be a way
of drawing upon multiple strengths.
of drawing upon multiple strengths.
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「一團糟」可能是
運用多項優點的方式。
運用多項優點的方式。
02:06
But what people wanted to say was,
"My life is a journey."
"My life is a journey."
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但，人們想說的是
「我的人生是一趟旅程。」
「我的人生是一趟旅程。」
02:10
51% wanted to turn
his or her life into a story.
his or her life into a story.
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51% 的人想要把
他／她的人生轉變成一個故事，
他／她的人生轉變成一個故事，
02:15
11% said, "My life is a battle."
Again, that is a kind of story.
Again, that is a kind of story.
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11% 的人說「我的人生是一場戰役」，
那也同樣算是一種故事，
那也同樣算是一種故事，
02:20
8% said, "My life is a novel."
5% said, "My life is a play."
5% said, "My life is a play."
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8% 的人說「我的人生是一部小說」，
5% 的人說「我的人生是一齣劇」。
5% 的人說「我的人生是一齣劇」。
02:24
I don't think anyone said,
"My life is a reality TV show."
"My life is a reality TV show."
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我想應該是沒有人說
「我的人生是場電視真人實境秀」。
「我的人生是場電視真人實境秀」。
02:27
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:28
But again, we're imposing order
on the mess we observe,
on the mess we observe,
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但，我們會在我們觀察到的一團糟
上面加上秩序，
上面加上秩序，
02:32
and it's taking the same patterns,
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用的是同樣的模式。
02:34
and the thing is when something
is in the form of a story,
is in the form of a story,
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問題是，當一件事
以故事的形式呈現，
以故事的形式呈現，
02:37
often, we remember it when we shouldn't.
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我們通常會在
不該記得它的時候記得它。
不該記得它的時候記得它。
02:39
So how many of you know the story
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在座有多少人知道
02:41
about George Washington
and the cherry tree?
and the cherry tree?
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華盛頓和櫻桃樹的故事？
02:44
It's not obvious that is
exactly what happened.
exactly what happened.
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真正發生的事情不見得是那樣。
02:46
The story of Paul Revere, it's not obvious
that that is exactly the way it happened.
that that is exactly the way it happened.
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保羅 · 列維爾的故事，
它真正發生的方式不見得是那樣。
它真正發生的方式不見得是那樣。
02:51
So again, we should be
suspicious of stories.
suspicious of stories.
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所以，我們應該要對故事抱持猜疑，
02:55
We're biologically programmed
to respond to them.
to respond to them.
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我們在生物上的天性
就是會對故事會有所反應。
就是會對故事會有所反應。
02:58
They contain a lot of information.
They have social power.
They have social power.
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故事包含很多資訊，
故事有著社交的力量，
故事有著社交的力量，
03:01
They connect us to other people.
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故事將我們與他人連結。
03:03
So they are like a candy that we're fed
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所以故事像是
當我們在消化政治資訊時、
當我們在消化政治資訊時、
03:05
when we consume political information,
when we read novels.
when we read novels.
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當我們在閱讀小說時，
餵給我們吃的糖果。
餵給我們吃的糖果。
03:09
When we read non-fiction books,
we're really being fed stories.
we're really being fed stories.
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當我們閱讀非小說類的書籍時，
我們其實正被餵食著故事。
我們其實正被餵食著故事。
03:12
Non-fiction is, in a sense,
the new fiction.
the new fiction.
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在某種意義上，
非小說類就是一種新小說類，
非小說類就是一種新小說類，
03:15
The book may happen to say true things,
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書所說的有可能剛好是真實的，
03:18
but again, everything's taking
the same form of these stories.
the same form of these stories.
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但同樣地，一切都是
採用這些故事的形式。
採用這些故事的形式。
03:22
So what are the problems
of relying too heavily on stories?
of relying too heavily on stories?
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所以，太過仰賴故事會有什麼問題？
03:26
You view your life like this
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你用這種方式來看你的人生，
03:28
instead of the mess
that it is or it ought to be.
that it is or it ought to be.
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而不是看到它真正一團糟的樣子。
03:31
But more specifically,
I think of a few major problems
I think of a few major problems
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更明確來說，我想，
如果在敘述上我們
如果在敘述上我們
03:35
when we think too much
in terms of narrative.
in terms of narrative.
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想太多時，會有幾個重大問題。
03:39
First, narratives tend to be too simple,
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第一，敘述通常都會太簡單。
03:41
for the point of a narrative
is to strip it away,
is to strip it away,
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因為敘述的意義
就是要做簡單的揭露，
就是要做簡單的揭露，
03:43
not just into 18 minutes,
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不僅僅只簡化到 18 分鐘的敘述，
03:45
but most narratives
you can present in a sentence or two.
you can present in a sentence or two.
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大部份的敘述都可以
用一到兩句話來呈現。
用一到兩句話來呈現。
03:48
When you strip away detail,
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當你把細節除掉時，
03:50
you tend to tell stories
in terms of good versus evil,
in terms of good versus evil,
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你的故事就會傾向變成
正義對抗邪惡，
正義對抗邪惡，
03:54
whether it's a story about your own life
or a story about politics.
or a story about politics.
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不論是你的人生故事
或是關於政治的故事。
或是關於政治的故事。
03:58
I know some things actually are
good versus evil, we all know this, right?
good versus evil, we all know this, right?
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我知道有些事的確是正邪之戰，
我們都知道這點，對吧？
我們都知道這點，對吧？
04:02
But I think, as a general rule,
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但我認為，就一般規則而言，
04:03
we're too inclined to tell
the good versus evil story.
the good versus evil story.
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我們太傾向去訴說
正義對抗邪惡的故事了。
正義對抗邪惡的故事了。
04:07
As a simple rule of thumb,
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就經驗法則來說，
04:09
just imagine that every time
you're telling a good versus evil story,
you're telling a good versus evil story,
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想像一下每次你訴說一個
正義對抗邪惡的故事，
正義對抗邪惡的故事，
04:13
you're basically lowering your IQ
by ten points or more.
by ten points or more.
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你就會把你的智商降低十分或更多。
04:17
If you just adopt that
as a kind of inner mental habit,
as a kind of inner mental habit,
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如果你把這當作是一種
內在的心理習慣，
內在的心理習慣，
04:20
it's, in my view, one way to get
a lot smarter pretty quickly.
a lot smarter pretty quickly.
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就我看來，這是很快
變聰明許多的方法之一，
變聰明許多的方法之一，
04:24
You don't have to read any books.
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你不用閱讀任何書籍，
04:25
Just imagine yourself pressing a button
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只要想像，每當你訴說一個正義對抗
04:27
every time you tell
the good versus evil story,
the good versus evil story,
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邪惡的故事時，
你就自己按下一個按鈕，
你就自己按下一個按鈕，
04:30
and by pressing that button,
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而按下那個按鈕，
04:32
you're lowering your IQ
by ten points or more.
by ten points or more.
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你就會把你的智商降低十分或更多。
04:35
Another set of stories that are popular--
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還有另一種故事也很受歡迎，
04:37
if you know Oliver Stone's movies,
or Michael Moore's movies,
or Michael Moore's movies,
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如果你知道奧利佛 · 史東
或麥可 · 摩爾的電影，
或麥可 · 摩爾的電影，
04:40
you can't make a movie and say:
"It was all a big accident."
"It was all a big accident."
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你不能拍一部電影並說：
「這全是個天大的意外。」
「這全是個天大的意外。」
04:44
No, it has to be a conspiracy,
people plotting together,
people plotting together,
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不行，它一定得要是一種陰謀，
要由人們一起策劃，
要由人們一起策劃，
04:48
because in a story,
a story is about intention.
a story is about intention.
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因為在故事中，重點是要有意圖。
04:52
A story is not about spontaneous order
or complex human institutions
or complex human institutions
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故事的重點不是自發性的秩序，
或是複雜的人類制度，
或是複雜的人類制度，
04:56
which are the product of human action,
but not of human design.
but not of human design.
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這些都是人類行為的產物，
並非人類的設計。
並非人類的設計。
04:59
No, a story is about evil people
plotting together.
plotting together.
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不，故事的重點是
邪惡的人們一起進行策劃。
邪惡的人們一起進行策劃。
05:03
So when you hear stories about plots,
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所以當你聽到關於陰謀的故事，
05:06
or even stories about good people
plotting things together,
plotting things together,
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或甚至關於好人
一同策劃某事的故事，
一同策劃某事的故事，
05:09
just like when you're watching movies,
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就像你在看電影一樣，
05:11
this, again, is reason to be suspicious.
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同樣地，這也是要
抱持猜疑的理由之一。
抱持猜疑的理由之一。
05:14
As a good rule of thumb, if you're asking:
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如果你有下面這個疑問：
05:16
"When I hear a story, when should I
be especially suspicious?"
be especially suspicious?"
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「當我聽到一個故事時，
在何時要特別地抱持猜疑？」
在何時要特別地抱持猜疑？」
05:19
If you hear a story and you think:
"Wow, that would make a great movie!"
"Wow, that would make a great movie!"
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很好的經驗法則就是
當你聽完故事後想著
當你聽完故事後想著
「哇，這能拍成很棒的電影」時。
05:24
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:25
That's when the "uh-oh" reaction
should pop in a bit more,
should pop in a bit more,
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那就是「喔，不妙」的反應
應該要更常出現的時候了，
應該要更常出現的時候了，
05:29
and you should start thinking in terms
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且你應該要開始思考
05:31
of how the whole thing
is maybe a bit of a mess.
is maybe a bit of a mess.
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這整件事是不是有點可能是一團糟。
05:35
Another common story or storyline is
the claim that we "have to get tough".
the claim that we "have to get tough".
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另一種常見故事或故事線，
是「我們得要強硬起來」的主張。
是「我們得要強硬起來」的主張。
05:41
You'll hear this in so many contexts.
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在許多的情境中都會聽到這點：
05:43
We have to get tough with the banks.
We had to get tough with the labor unions.
We had to get tough with the labor unions.
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對銀行，我們得要強硬起來。
對勞工工會，我們得要強硬起來。
對勞工工會，我們得要強硬起來。
05:48
We need to get tough
with some other country,
with some other country,
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對某些其他國家、
對某些外國獨裁者、
對某些外國獨裁者、
05:50
some foreign dictator,
someone we're negotiating with.
someone we're negotiating with.
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對我們在協商的對象，
我們需要強硬起來。
我們需要強硬起來。
05:54
Again, the point is not
against getting tough.
against getting tough.
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同樣地，重點並不是反對
要強硬起來這一點，
要強硬起來這一點，
05:57
Sometimes we should get tough.
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有時我們的確需要強硬，
05:58
That we got tough with the Nazis
was a good thing.
was a good thing.
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我們對納粹強硬就是好事。
06:02
But this is again a story we fall back
upon all too readily, all too quickly.
upon all too readily, all too quickly.
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但同樣地，我們太容易、
太快速就依賴這個故事了。
太快速就依賴這個故事了。
06:08
When we don't really know
why something happened,
why something happened,
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當我們實際上並不知道
某事為什麼發生時，
某事為什麼發生時，
06:10
we blame someone, and we say:
"We need to get tough with them!"
"We need to get tough with them!"
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我們會怪罪某人，我們會說：
「我們需要對他們強硬起來！」
「我們需要對他們強硬起來！」
06:14
As if it had never occurred
to your predecessor,
to your predecessor,
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說得好像你的前人都沒想到
06:16
this idea of getting tough.
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要強硬起來的這個想法一樣。
06:18
I view it usually
as a kind of mental laziness.
as a kind of mental laziness.
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我通常將它視為是一種心理惰性。
06:21
It's a simple story you tell:
"We need to get tough,
"We need to get tough,
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你說的是一個很簡單的故事：
「我們需要強硬起來，
「我們需要強硬起來，
06:25
we needed to get tough,
we will have to get tough."
we will have to get tough."
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我們需要強硬起來，
我們將會需要強硬起來。」
我們將會需要強硬起來。」
06:27
Usually, that is a kind of warning signal.
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通常，那是一種警訊。
06:31
Another kind of problem with stories is
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故事的另一種問題是
06:34
you can only fit so many stories
into your mind at once,
into your mind at once,
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你一次只能在你的腦中
放入這麼多故事，
放入這麼多故事，
06:38
or in the course of a day,
or even over the course of a lifetime.
or even over the course of a lifetime.
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或是在一天中、甚至在一生中，
就只能放入這麼多故事。
就只能放入這麼多故事。
06:41
So your stories are serving
too many purposes.
too many purposes.
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所以你的故事要達到太多的目的。
06:44
For instance, just to get
out of bed in the morning,
out of bed in the morning,
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比如，只是為了早上起床這件事，
06:46
you tell yourself the story
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你就要告訴你自己一個故事，
06:49
that your job is really important,
what you're doing is really important
what you're doing is really important
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說你的工作極重要，
你所做的事極重要。
你所做的事極重要。
06:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:54
and maybe it is, but I tell myself
that story even when it's not.
that story even when it's not.
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也許的確如此，即便不是如此，
我仍然會告訴我自己那個故事。
我仍然會告訴我自己那個故事。
07:00
And you know what? That story works.
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你知道嗎，那個故事有用，
07:02
It gets me out of bed.
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它能讓我起床。
07:04
It's a kind of self-deception,
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它是某種自我欺騙，
07:06
but the problem comes
when I need to change that story.
when I need to change that story.
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但當我需要改變
那個故事時，問題就來了。
那個故事時，問題就來了。
07:09
The whole point of the story is
that I grab onto it and I hold it,
that I grab onto it and I hold it,
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故事的意義就是我緊緊抓著它不放，
07:13
and it gets me out of bed.
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而它能讓我起床。
07:15
So when I'm really doing something
that is actually just a waste of time,
that is actually just a waste of time,
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所以當我真的在我的
一團糟人生中做著
一團糟人生中做著
07:19
in my mess of a life,
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根本就是浪費時間的事情時，
07:20
I'm too tied into my story
that got me out of bed,
that got me out of bed,
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我跟那個讓我起床的故事
被緊緊綁在一起，
被緊緊綁在一起，
07:25
and ideally, I ought to have some
very complex story map in my mind,
very complex story map in my mind,
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理想上，我腦中應該要有
某種非常複雜的故事地圖，
某種非常複雜的故事地圖，
07:29
you know, with combinatorials
and a matrix of computation, and the like,
and a matrix of computation, and the like,
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你知道的，有組合數學和
矩陣計算的那類故事地圖，
矩陣計算的那類故事地圖，
07:32
but that is not how stories work.
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但故事並不是這樣運作的。
07:34
Stories in order to work
have to be simple,
have to be simple,
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能運作的故事，必須要是簡單的、
07:36
easily grasped, easily told
to others, easily remembered.
to others, easily remembered.
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容易理解、容易
向他人訴說、容易被記住。
向他人訴說、容易被記住。
07:40
So stories will serve dual
and conflicting purposes,
and conflicting purposes,
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所以故事能達成
兩個互相矛盾的目的，
兩個互相矛盾的目的，
07:43
and very often they will lead us astray.
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且故事通常會把我們引入歧途。
07:46
I used to think I was
within the camp of economists,
within the camp of economists,
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我以前認為我是在經濟學家的陣營，
07:49
I was one of the good guys,
and I was allied with other good guys,
and I was allied with other good guys,
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我是好人之一，
我和其他好人是同盟，
我和其他好人是同盟，
07:53
and we were fighting
the ideas of the bad guys.
the ideas of the bad guys.
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我們在對抗壞人的想法。
07:56
I used to think that!
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我以前是這樣想的！
07:58
And probably, I was wrong.
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很可能，我以前是錯的。
08:00
Maybe sometimes, I'm one of the good guys,
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也許，有時，我是好人之一，
08:02
but on some issues, I finally realized:
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
"Hey, I wasn't one of the good guys."
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但針對某些議題，我終於了解到：
「嘿，我不是好人之一。」
「嘿，我不是好人之一。」
08:07
I'm not sure I was the bad guy
in the sense of having evil intent,
in the sense of having evil intent,
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如果壞人是用邪惡意圖來定義，
我不太確定我算是壞人，
我不太確定我算是壞人，
08:10
but it was very hard for me
to get away with that story.
to get away with that story.
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但我很難脫離那個故事。
08:15
One interesting thing
about cognitive biases
about cognitive biases
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關於認知偏見，有一點很有趣，
08:19
is they are the subject
of so many books these days.
of so many books these days.
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就是現今有很多書是
以認知偏見為主題的。
以認知偏見為主題的。
08:22
There's the Nudge book,
the Sway book, the Blink book,
the Sway book, the Blink book,
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有《推力》、
《左右決策的迷惑力》、
《左右決策的迷惑力》、
《決斷兩秒間》這些書，
08:26
like the one-title book,
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都是書名只有一個英文單字的書，
08:28
all about the ways in which we screw up.
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談的都是我們把事情搞砸的方式。
08:31
And there are so many ways,
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且有好多方式能搞砸，
08:33
but what I find interesting
is that none of these books identify
is that none of these books identify
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但我覺得有趣的是，
這些書通通沒有點出
這些書通通沒有點出
08:36
what, to me, is the single, central,
most important way we screw up,
most important way we screw up,
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對我而言唯一
最重要最核心的搞砸方式，
最重要最核心的搞砸方式，
08:40
and that is that we tell
ourselves too many stories,
ourselves too many stories,
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那方式就是：
我們告訴自己太多故事，
我們告訴自己太多故事，
08:44
or we are too easily seduced by stories.
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或是我們太容易被故事誘惑。
08:47
Why don't these books tell us that?
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為什麼這些書不告訴我們這一點？
08:49
It's because the books themselves
are all about stories.
are all about stories.
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因為這些書本身就是與故事有關的。
08:53
The more of these books you read,
you're learning about some of your biases,
you're learning about some of your biases,
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當你閱讀越多這種書，
你的確是在瞭解自身的一些偏見，
你的確是在瞭解自身的一些偏見，
08:56
but you're making some
of your other biases essentially worse.
of your other biases essentially worse.
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但你也在讓你的
一些其他偏見變得更糟。
一些其他偏見變得更糟。
09:00
So the books themselves
are part of your cognitive bias.
are part of your cognitive bias.
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所以這些書本身就是
你的認知偏見的一部份。
你的認知偏見的一部份。
09:04
Often, people buy them
as a kind of talisman, like:
as a kind of talisman, like:
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通常，人們買書是把書
當作一種護身符，像是：
當作一種護身符，像是：
09:07
"I bought this book. I won't be
'Predictably Irrational'."
'Predictably Irrational'."
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「這書我買過了！所以我肯定不會
有書中所講的『可預測的不理性』。」
有書中所講的『可預測的不理性』。」
09:11
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:13
It's like people want to hear the worst,
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就好像人們想聽到最糟的，
09:15
so psychologically, they can prepare
for it or defend against it.
for it or defend against it.
167
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所以在心理上，他們會為最糟的
做準備或是防禦抵抗最糟的。
做準備或是防禦抵抗最糟的。
09:19
It's why there is
such a market for pessimism.
such a market for pessimism.
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這就是為什麼悲觀主義會有市場。
09:22
But to think that by buying the book
gets you somewhere,
gets you somewhere,
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但若認為買一本書
就能讓你有所改變，
就能讓你有所改變，
09:25
that's maybe the bigger fallacy.
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1918
那可能是更大的謬誤。
09:27
It's just like the evidence that shows
that the most dangerous people
that the most dangerous people
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這就像是，證據顯示最危險的人是
09:30
are those who have been taught
some financial literacy.
some financial literacy.
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被教導了一些財務素養的人。
09:33
They're the ones who go out
and make the worst mistakes.
and make the worst mistakes.
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他們是那些出去犯下
最糟的錯誤的人。
最糟的錯誤的人。
09:36
It's the people who realize
they don't know anything at all,
they don't know anything at all,
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知道自己一無所知的人，
09:38
that end up doing pretty well.
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2009
才是最後表現很好的人。
09:41
A third problem with stories
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故事的第三個問題：
09:43
is that outsiders
manipulate us using stories,
manipulate us using stories,
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外人用故事來操縱我們，
09:46
and we all like to think advertising
only works on the other guy,
only works on the other guy,
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且我們都認為，
廣告只對其他人有用，
廣告只對其他人有用，
09:49
but, of course, that's not how it is,
advertising works on all of us.
advertising works on all of us.
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當然，並不是這樣的，
廣告對我們所有人都有用。
廣告對我們所有人都有用。
09:54
So if you're too attached to stories,
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所以如果你太愛故事，
09:56
what will happen is people
selling products come along,
selling products come along,
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後果會是：賣產品的人會找上你，
10:00
and they will bundle
their product with a story.
their product with a story.
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他們會把他們的產品
和一個故事搭配在一起。
和一個故事搭配在一起。
10:03
You're like, "Hey, a free story!"
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你的反應會是：
「嘿，免費的故事耶！」
「嘿，免費的故事耶！」
10:04
And you end up buying the product,
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最後你會買下那個產品，
10:06
because the product
and the story go together.
and the story go together.
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因為故事是和產品搭配在一起的。
10:08
(Laugther)
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1038
（笑聲）
10:09
If you think about how capitalism works,
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如果你想想看資本主義如何運作，
10:11
there is a bias here.
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它有個偏見。
10:13
Let's consider two kinds
of stories about cars.
of stories about cars.
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我們來考慮關於汽車的兩種故事。
10:16
Story A is: "Buy this car,
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故事一：「買這台汽車，
10:19
and you will have beautiful, romantic
partners and a fascinating life."
partners and a fascinating life."
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3618
你就會有美麗浪漫的伙伴
以及迷人的人生。」
以及迷人的人生。」
10:22
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:25
There are a lot of people
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有很多人
10:26
who have a financial incentive
to promote that story.
to promote that story.
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2495
在金錢的激勵下去宣傳那個故事。
10:29
But, say, the alternative story is:
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但假設另一個故事是：
10:31
"You don't actually need a car
as nice as your income would indicate.
as nice as your income would indicate.
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「你其實不需要一台符合
你那不錯的收入水平的汽車。
你那不錯的收入水平的汽車。
10:35
What you usually do is look
at what your peers do and copy them.
at what your peers do and copy them.
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你通常會看你的同儕做什麼，
然後就依樣畫葫蘆。
然後就依樣畫葫蘆。
10:39
That is a good heuristic
for lots of problems,
for lots of problems,
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對很多問題而言，那是個好啟發，
10:41
but when it comes to cars,
just buy a Toyota."
just buy a Toyota."
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但就汽車而言，買豐田的就對了。」
10:43
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:45
Maybe Toyota has an incentive there,
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1741
也許豐田有其銷售動機，
10:47
but even Toyota is making
more money off the luxury cars,
more money off the luxury cars,
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但即使是豐田也從
豪華車款賺更多錢，
豪華車款賺更多錢，
10:50
and less money off the cheaper cars.
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1937
便宜的車賺的錢則比較少。
10:52
So if you think which set of stories
you end up hearing,
you end up hearing,
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所以，想想你最後會聽哪種故事，
10:55
you end up hearing the glamor stories,
the seductive stories,
the seductive stories,
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你最後聽的是迷人、誘人的故事。
10:58
and again I'm telling you,
don't trust them.
don't trust them.
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我再次告訴各位，
不要相信這些故事。
不要相信這些故事。
11:00
There are people using
your love of stories to manipulate you.
your love of stories to manipulate you.
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有人在利用你
對故事的喜愛來操縱你。
對故事的喜愛來操縱你。
11:06
Pull back and say:
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退一步，並說：
11:07
"What are the messages,
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1098
「訊息是什麼？
11:08
what are the stories
that no one has an incentive to tell?"
that no one has an incentive to tell?"
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2784
沒有人有動機去訴說的故事
是什麼故事？」
是什麼故事？」
11:11
Start telling yourself those, and then see
if any of your decisions change.
if any of your decisions change.
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開始告訴你自己這些結論，
看看你的決策是否會因此改變。
看看你的決策是否會因此改變。
11:15
That is one simple way.
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1676
那是一種簡單的方式。
11:17
You can never get out of the pattern
of thinking in terms of stories,
of thinking in terms of stories,
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3461
就故事而言，你永遠無法
脫離那種思考模式，
脫離那種思考模式，
11:21
but you can improve the extent
to which you think in stories,
to which you think in stories,
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3636
但你能夠改善在故事中
你思考的程度，
你思考的程度，
11:24
and make some better decisions.
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2064
並做出更好的決策。
11:27
So if I'm thinking about this talk,
I'm wondering, of course,
I'm wondering, of course,
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3154
所以，如果我在思考關於這場演說，
當然，我會好奇想知道，
當然，我會好奇想知道，
11:30
what is it you take away from this talk?
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你從這場演說會帶走什麼？
11:33
What story do you take away
from Tyler Cowen?
from Tyler Cowen?
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3779
你會從泰勒 · 卡文身上
帶走什麼故事？
帶走什麼故事？
11:37
One story you might be
like the story of the quest.
like the story of the quest.
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3176
可能會是個關於追尋的故事：
11:40
"Tyler was a man on a quest.
220
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2425
「泰勒是個踏上追尋旅程的人。
11:43
Tyler came here, and he told us
not to think so much in terms of stories."
not to think so much in terms of stories."
221
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5592
泰勒來到這裡，他叫我們
不要在故事方面想那麼多。」
不要在故事方面想那麼多。」
11:49
That would be a story
you could tell about this talk.
you could tell about this talk.
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關於這場演說，
你可能會說的故事可能是這樣。
你可能會說的故事可能是這樣。
11:51
(Laughter)
223
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1897
（笑聲）
11:53
It would fit a pretty well-known pattern.
224
677805
1982
它符合眾所皆知的模式。
11:55
You might remember it.
You could tell it to other people.
You could tell it to other people.
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2889
你可能會記得這個故事。
你可能會把它告訴其他人。
你可能會把它告訴其他人。
11:58
"This weird guy came, and he said,
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「來了個怪胎，他說，
12:00
'Don't think in terms of stories.
Let me tell you what happened today!'"
Let me tell you what happened today!'"
227
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3400
『不要在故事方面去想，讓我
來告訴你們今天發生了什麼事！』」
來告訴你們今天發生了什麼事！』」
12:03
(Laughter)
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1003
（笑聲）
12:04
And you tell your story.
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你會把你的故事告訴別人。
12:06
(Laugther)
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（笑聲）
12:08
Another possibility is
you might tell a story of rebirth.
you might tell a story of rebirth.
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另一個可能性是，你可能會說
一個關於重生的故事。
一個關於重生的故事。
12:13
You might say, "I used to think
too much in terms of stories
too much in terms of stories
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你可能會說：「我以前
在故事方面想太多，
在故事方面想太多，
12:17
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:20
but then I heard Tyler Cowen
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但接著我聽了泰勒 · 卡文演說，
12:22
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:23
and now I think less in terms of stories!"
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現在我在故事方面想比較少了！」
12:27
That too is a narrative you will remember,
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那也是你會記得的敘述。
12:29
you can tell to other people,
and again, it may stick.
and again, it may stick.
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你可以告訴其他人，
同樣地，它也會留在記憶中。
同樣地，它也會留在記憶中。
12:34
You also could tell
a story of deep tragedy.
a story of deep tragedy.
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你也可以訴說一個
深刻悲劇的故事：
深刻悲劇的故事：
12:38
"This guy Tyler Cowen came
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「來了個叫泰勒的傢伙，
12:40
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:42
and he told us not to think
in terms of stories,
in terms of stories,
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他叫我們在故事方面不要想太多，
12:44
but all he could do was tell us stories
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但他也只會告訴我們故事，
12:46
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:47
about how other people think
too much in terms of stories."
too much in terms of stories."
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關於人們在故事方面
想太多的故事。」
想太多的故事。」
12:51
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:54
So, today, which is it?
Is it like quest, rebirth, tragedy?
Is it like quest, rebirth, tragedy?
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所以今天，是哪一種？
是像追尋、重生、或悲劇？
是像追尋、重生、或悲劇？
12:59
Or maybe some combination of the three?
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或是這三項的組合？
13:02
I'm really not sure,
and I'm not here to tell you
and I'm not here to tell you
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我真的不確定，
我不是來這裡告訴你
我不是來這裡告訴你
13:05
to burn your DVD player
and throw out your Tolstoy.
and throw out your Tolstoy.
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燒掉你的 DVD 播放器、
丟掉你的托爾斯泰。
丟掉你的托爾斯泰。
13:09
To think in terms of stories
is fundamentally human.
is fundamentally human.
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從故事方面去想本來就是人的天性。
13:14
There is a Gabriel Garcia Marquez
memoir "Living to Tell the Tale"
memoir "Living to Tell the Tale"
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加布列 · 賈西亞 · 馬奎斯
有本回憶錄叫《活著為了講述》，
有本回憶錄叫《活著為了講述》，
13:19
that we use memory in stories
to make sense of what we've done,
to make sense of what we've done,
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我們用故事形式的記憶
來理解我們的所作所為，
來理解我們的所作所為，
13:23
to give meaning to our lives, to establish
connections with other people.
connections with other people.
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賦予我們的生命意義，
與其他人建立連結。
與其他人建立連結。
13:27
None of this will go away,
should go away, or can go away.
should go away, or can go away.
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這些通通都不會消失、
不應消失、不能消失。
不應消失、不能消失。
13:31
But again, as an economist,
I'm thinking about life on the margin,
I'm thinking about life on the margin,
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但，身為經濟學家，
我會想的是邊際的人生，
我會想的是邊際的人生，
13:37
the extra decision.
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額外的決定。
13:38
Should we think more in terms of stories,
or less in terms of stories?
or less in terms of stories?
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我們應該在故事方面
想多一點或想少一點？
想多一點或想少一點？
13:42
When we hear stories,
should we be more suspicious?
should we be more suspicious?
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當我們聽到故事時，
我們應該要抱持猜疑嗎？
我們應該要抱持猜疑嗎？
13:47
And what kind of stories
should we be suspicious of?
should we be suspicious of?
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我們應該要對哪種故事抱持猜疑？
13:49
Again, I'm telling you it's the stories,
very often, that you like the most,
very often, that you like the most,
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我再次告訴各位，
通常，是那些你最喜歡的故事
通常，是那些你最喜歡的故事
13:54
that you find the most rewarding,
the most inspiring.
the most inspiring.
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讓你覺得最有意義、最鼓舞人心。
13:58
The stories that don't focus
on opportunity cost,
on opportunity cost,
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不把焦點放在機會成本、
14:02
or the complex, unintended
consequences of human action,
consequences of human action,
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或人類行為造成的非預期之
複雜結果的故事，
複雜結果的故事，
14:05
because that very often
does not make for a good story.
does not make for a good story.
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因為這些元素通常
不會創造出好故事。
不會創造出好故事。
14:09
So often a story is a story
of triumph, a story of struggle;
of triumph, a story of struggle;
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通常，故事都是
關於勝利、掙扎的故事；
關於勝利、掙扎的故事；
14:14
there are opposing forces,
which are either evil or ignorant;
which are either evil or ignorant;
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故事中有反對的力量，
這些力量不是邪惡的就是無知的；
這些力量不是邪惡的就是無知的；
14:18
there is a person on a quest,
someone making a voyage,
someone making a voyage,
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有人開始了追尋，
有人踏上了旅程，
有人踏上了旅程，
14:22
and a stranger coming to town.
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有個陌生人來到鎮上。
14:24
And those are your categories,
but don't let them make you too happy.
but don't let them make you too happy.
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那些是你喜歡的類別，
但別讓它們使你太開心。
但別讓它們使你太開心。
14:30
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:33
As an alternative,
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另一種做法，
14:35
at the margin
- again, no burning of Tolstoy -
- again, no burning of Tolstoy -
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在邊際上──再說一次，
不要燒了托爾斯泰──
不要燒了托爾斯泰──
14:39
but just be a little more messy.
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稍微多一點一團糟。
14:42
If I actually had to live those journeys,
and quests, and battles,
and quests, and battles,
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如果我真的得要經歷
那些旅程、追尋、戰役，
那些旅程、追尋、戰役，
14:47
that would be so oppressive to me!
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那對我來說會是非常壓迫沉重的！
14:49
It's like, my goodness,
can't I just have my life
can't I just have my life
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類似：我的天，
我不能夠只讓我的人生
我不能夠只讓我的人生
14:51
in its messy, ordinary
- I hesitate to use the word - glory
- I hesitate to use the word - glory
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保有它一團亂的平凡榮耀嗎？
我用榮耀這個字時遲疑了──
我用榮耀這個字時遲疑了──
14:55
but that it's fun for me?
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只要我覺得有趣就好，不行嗎？
14:57
Do I really have to follow
some kind of narrative?
some kind of narrative?
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我一定得要遵循某種敘述嗎？
14:59
Can't I just live?
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我不能只是過日子嗎？
15:01
So be more comfortable with messy.
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不要對於一團糟感到不舒服。
15:05
Be more comfortable with agnostic,
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不要對於不可知論感到不舒服。
15:08
and I mean this about the things
that make you feel good.
that make you feel good.
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我說這些是關於那些會
讓你感到愉快的事物。
讓你感到愉快的事物。
15:10
It's so easy to pick out
a few areas to be agnostic in,
a few areas to be agnostic in,
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很容易可以找到
幾個不可知的領域，
幾個不可知的領域，
15:13
and then feel good about it,
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並對它們感覺很好。
15:14
like, "I am agnostic
about religion, or politics."
about religion, or politics."
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類似：「我對宗教或
政治抱持不可知論。」
政治抱持不可知論。」
15:18
It's a kind of portfolio move you make
to be more dogmatic elsewhere, right?
to be more dogmatic elsewhere, right?
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它就像你所做的投資組合對策，
在其他地方更教條式，對嗎？
在其他地方更教條式，對嗎？
15:22
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
15:25
Sometimes,
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有時，
15:26
the most intellectually trustworthy people
are the ones who pick one area,
are the ones who pick one area,
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在智慧上最讓人覺得可信的人，
是那種選定一個領域，
是那種選定一個領域，
15:29
and they are totally dogmatic in that,
so pig-headedly unreasonable,
so pig-headedly unreasonable,
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在那個領域中完全教條化，
非常固執無法理喻，
非常固執無法理喻，
15:32
that you think,
"How can they possibly believe that?"
"How can they possibly believe that?"
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會讓你心想：「他們怎麼
可能會相信那說法？」
可能會相信那說法？」
15:35
But it soaks up their stubbornness,
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但那會吸收掉他們的頑固，
15:40
and then, on other things,
they can be pretty open-minded.
they can be pretty open-minded.
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然後他們就會在
其他事物上很開放。
其他事物上很開放。
15:43
So don't fall into the trap of thinking
because you're agnostic on some things,
because you're agnostic on some things,
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不要因為你對某些事抱持不可知論，
就落入思考的陷阱，
就落入思考的陷阱，
15:46
that you're being fundamentally reasonable
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而認為你對於你的自我欺騙、
15:48
about your self-deception, your stories,
and your open-mindedness.
and your open-mindedness.
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你的故事、你的開放性
在基本上都是理性的。
在基本上都是理性的。
15:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
15:54
[Think about] this idea of hovering,
of epistemological hovering,
of epistemological hovering,
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想想猶豫的想法，認識論的猶豫，
15:58
and messiness, and incompleteness,
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想想一團糟，想想不完整，
16:02
[and how] not everything
ties up into a neat bow,
ties up into a neat bow,
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想想並非一切
都能打成一個完美領結，
都能打成一個完美領結，
16:04
and you're really not on a journey here.
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且你在這裡其實
並不是在一趟旅程上。
並不是在一趟旅程上。
16:07
You're here for some
messy reason or reasons,
messy reason or reasons,
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你在這裡是因為
某種一團糟的理由，
某種一團糟的理由，
16:10
and maybe you don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
and maybe I don't know what it is,
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也許你不知道它是什麼，
也許我不知道它是什麼，
也許我不知道它是什麼，
16:14
but anyway, I'm happy to be invited,
and thank you all for listening.
and thank you all for listening.
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但無論如何，我很高興能被邀請，
並謝謝各位的傾聽。
並謝謝各位的傾聽。
16:18
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
16:19
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tyler Cowen - EconomistIn his work, economist Tyler Cowen looks at clues from pop culture, art, food, to gather data and make observations on the world's globalizing culture and commerce.
Why you should listen
Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University, and partners with Alex Tabarrok to write the economics blog Marginal Revolution, where he hunts for clues to whatever is coming next, in the space where economics and culture entwine. His outlook is fairly libertarian, but it's not ivory-tower -- in fact, he's been accused of "cute-o-nomics" for daring to use economic models to explain real-world problems instead of theoretical abstractions.
His latest book is a short ebook called The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. In it, he suggests that while the days of easy growth are probably over for the US, it's probably not in a death spiral just yet.
Cowen is also a passionate foodie (check out his blog Tyler Cowen's Ethnic Dining Guide); in fact, his next book is An Economist Gets Lunch: New Rules for Everyday Foodies.
Find a transcript for Tyler Cowen's TEDxMidAtlantic talk on lesswrong.com >>
Tyler Cowen | Speaker | TED.com