Yuval Noah Harari: Nationalism vs. globalism: the new political divide
尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利: 国家主义 vs 全球主义:新的政治分裂
In his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake. Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Welcome to this TED Dialogues.
你好,欢迎来到TED对话。
that's going to be done
political upheaval.
the growing divisiveness in this country
a different kind of conversation,
on reason, listening, on understanding,
in these TED Dialogues,
pretty much like no one else
with underlying ideas
your breath away.
this book, "Sapiens."
知道这本书“人类简史”。
think differently --
in the US next week.
of the next hundred years.
quite alarming.
someone better to help
is happening in the world right now.
to Yuval Noah Harari.
on Facebook and around the Web.
网络上的朋友们加入我们。
asking questions of Yuval,
the political scandal du jour,
of: Where are we heading?
“我们去向何方?”的理解。
there's a new president in power,
by telling stories.
and very attractive story
oh, what's happening is
will create paradise on Earth,
globalizing the economy
even of the Western world,
it doesn't matter.
you don't understand what's happening.
你就不会理解正在发生什么。
was actually a very effective story.
你部分相信那是一个非常有效的故事。
than from eating too little,
than from infectious diseases,
than are killed by crime and terrorism
your own worst enemy.
to be killed by yourself --
very good news, compared --
that we saw in previous eras.
of connecting the world
但是这个连接世界的过程,
kind of feeling left out,
through the whole system.
of what's happened?
that people thought of politics,
has been blown up and replaced.
political model of left versus right
旧的20世纪政治模型,
is between global and national,
new political models
of thinking about politics.
is that we now have global ecology,
我们可以说现在我们有全球生态学,
but we have national politics,
但是我们有国家政治,
system ineffective,
over the forces that shape our life.
to this imbalance:
and turn it back into a national economy,
many liberals out there
as kind of irredeemably bad,
是无法挽救的恶劣,
or political philosophy in there
feeling or idea
我认为潜在的感觉和观点
something is broken there.
the ordinary person anymore.
about the ordinary person anymore,
of the political disease is correct.
存在问题的诊断是正确的。
I am far less certain.
is the immediate human reaction:
经历的是人类立刻的反应:
让我们回到过去。
in the political system today,
of where humankind is going.
you see retrograde vision:
in the '50s, in the '80s, sometime,
a hundred years after Lenin,
to the Tsarist empire.
of the present is:
sometime in the past we've lost it,
我们失败了,
you've lost your way in the city,
你在城市里迷了路,
to the point where I felt secure
回到我们感觉安全的时候,
this is their gut instinct.
这为什么不会有效果?
appealing slogan in many ways.
a very noble thing.
in promoting cooperation
organized in countries,
even thousands of years,
很多个世纪,甚至几千年,
too much on the bad.
many positive things about patriotism,
a large number of people
the Yellow River in China --
for survival and for prosperity,
from periodical floods
anything about it,
just a tiny section of the river.
and complicated process,
to form the Chinese nation,
形成了中华民族,
hundreds of thousands of people together
and regulate the river
of prosperity for everybody.
around the world.
in a fundamental way.
in the world --
this river by itself.
on a single planet,
of global cooperation,
to tackle the problems,
or whether it's technological disruption.
most of the issues,
都是国家层面的话,
that matter most today
but on a global scale.
of the world today
没有错,现在世界的主要问题
of global cooperation.
example people give.
of technological disruption.
artificial intelligence,
out of the job market --
of all the countries.
about, say, bioengineering
research in humans,
a single country, let's say the US,
continues to do it.
to do the same will be immense
high-risk, high-gain technologies.
I can't allow myself to remain behind.
effective regulations,
nobody would like to stay behind.
没人会愿意落后。
a constructive conversation
that the start point
that's propelled us to where we are
concerns about job loss.
way of life has gone,
that people are furious about that.
globalism, global elites,
世界上的社会高层,
without asking their permission,
a legitimate complaint.
is that -- so a key question is:
both now and going forward?
流失的真正原因是什么?
yes, is to shut down borders
and change trade agreements and so forth.
is not going to be that at all.
最大的原因并不是这个。
in technological questions,
but looking to the future,
who will take the jobs
on the border of California --
加利福尼亚州边境修建一堵墙,
is going to be very ineffective.
the debates before the election,
did not even attempt to frighten people
“机器人会抢走你们的工作”
it doesn't matter.
effective way of frightening people --
震慑并激励民众的方式。
that no matter what happens
an intense debate about it,
and among the general public,
technological disruption --
but in 10, 20, 30 years --
而是10、20、30年,
children today in school or in college
to the job market of 2040, 2050.
to think about in 2040.
what to teach the young people.
moments in history
entered a new era, unintentionally.
technologies have been developed,
that's worse for everyone.
you give in "Sapiens"
tilling the fields,
backbreaking workday
and a much more interesting lifestyle.
享受一个更有意思的生活方式。
phase change here,
that none of us actually wants?
我们并不希望的未来吗?
technological and economic revolution
individual lives,
became much better,
became considerably worse.
in the 21st century.
will empower the human collective.
all the benefits, taking all the fruits,
finding themselves worse
might not even be human elites.
而且那些社会高层可能不是人类。
enhanced super humans.
没错,他们可能会是提高过的超人类。
nonorganic elites.
non-conscious algorithms.
is authority shifting away
about personal lives,
about political matters --
by an algorithm, not by a human being.
一个算法,而不是一个人类决定。
is that maybe Homo sapiens just lost it.
there is so much data,
on the African savanna
of information and data --
of the 21st century,
that may be able to handle it
is shifting from us to the algorithms.
从我们转移到算法并不奇怪。
for the first of a series of TED Dialogues
这是TED对话系列的第一集,
audience out there.
to some of your questions
to make the argument
because of the coming technological ...
因为科技即将带来的……
a global conversation about this.
really believing that, I don't know,
threat, and so forth.
some people at least,
nuclear weapons, and so forth.
we are right now
need to be dialed up?
he doesn't believe in that.
对的,我认为气候变化,
who deny climate change are nationalists.
否定气候变化的人都是国家主义者。
denying climate change?
about it, it's obvious --
to climate change.
in the 21st century,
then you must accept that, yes,
你就会接受
for patriotism,
for having special loyalties
towards your own country.
thinking of abolishing that.
and commitments
several layers of loyalty.
to humankind as a whole?
when it becomes difficult,
some questions from the audience here.
好的,我想让现场观众提出一些问题。
get them coming, too.
clearly made a huge difference
in income distribution in the US
to affect that?
of the underlying causes.
good idea about what to do about it,
听说过一个很好的解决方案,
remain on the national level,
都是在国家层面的,
quite a lot about now
it's not clear what "universal" is
是因为“无条件”的概念
about universal basic income,
taking away millions of jobs
my shirts and my shoes.
on Google and Apple in California,
to unemployed Bangladeshis?
失业者的基本收入?
you can just as well believe
and solve the problem.
and not national basic income,
而不是国家基本收入,
are not going to go away.
just food and shelter was enough.
education is a basic human need,
人们会说教育是人类基本需求,
Twelve years? PhD?
that can extend human life
of basic income or not?
lose their ability to be employed,
is this basic income.
very difficult ethical question.
on how the world affords it as well,
这如何影响世界还有很多未知,
from Facebook from Lisa Larson:
提了一个问题,
World War I and World War II
to the dangers of nationalism,
好消息是,不管国家主义的危险,
than a century ago.
each other by the millions.
as far as I remember,
an MP who was murdered by some extremist.
一个议员被极端主义者谋杀。
British independence,
war of independence in human history.
will now choose to leave the UK
wanted several times --
in London was to send an army up north
and massacre the highland tribes.
the Scots vote for independence,
苏格兰选择独立,
will not send an army up north
to kill or be killed
of the rise of nationalism
today is far, far smaller
you hear publicly worrying
outbreaks of violence in the US
things have shifted?
不,我们应该担心。
in the First World War yet.
don't be complacent.
the wrong decisions,
in an analogous situation to 1917
回到像1917年那样的局面。
underestimate human stupidity.
forces in history,
for no obvious reason,
然而却并没有很明显的原因,
in human history is human wisdom.
很强大的力量是人类的智慧。
moral psychologist Jonathan Haidt,
道德心理学家乔纳森·海特
of global governance,
from Transparency International,
of political institutions,
of yellow here and there
some kind of global governance,
being more like Denmark
with national governments.
是可以解决全球问题。
actually look like,
what it would look like.
我并不知道它会是怎么样的。
are lose-lose situations.
a win-win situation like trade,
from a trade agreement,
have an interest in doing it.
like with climate change,
像气候变化,
authority, real authority.
and what would it look like,
like ancient China
that we are facing,
some kind of real ability
on the global level
than almost anything else.
Facebook上有一个问题,
the millions of climate migrants?"
百万气候变化的移民?”
这是你的答案,凯特。(笑声)
that they know either.
我觉得他们也不知道。
is another example of a problem
但是移民是国家层面难以解决的问题
on a nation-by-nation basis.
problems for the future.
it's another very good case,
没错,这是另外一个很好的例子,
or in ancient times.
among many technologists, certainly,
尤瓦尔,很多科技人相信一件事情,
are kind of overblown,
don't have that much influence
在世界上没有那么大的影响力,
at this point is by science,
other than political leaders,
for leaders to do much,
about nothing here.
ability to do good is very limited,
的能力是非常有限的,
and blow everybody up.
to reduce inequality,
in the political system today
一个根深蒂固的不平衡,
but you can still do a lot of harm.
但你依旧可以造成很多伤害。
still a very big concern.
what's happening today,
所以当你看看现在发生的事情,
when things were going just fine
the world or their country backwards?
和他的国家倒退的时候吗?
it's never an individual leader.
从来都不只是一个领导人,
to continue to be there.
of a single individual.
behind every such individual.
here, please, to Andrew?
我们能把麦克风给安德鲁吗?
about the global versus the national,
你谈了很多关于世界和国家的事情,
is in the hands of identity groups.
which have formed
significant authorities.
into the system,
to be made coherent
or global leadership?
of such diverse identities
in a single, monolithic identity,
more extreme versions of nationalism
to a single identity.
a lot of problems
their identities
for a global vision.
think in such exclusive terms.
a single identity for a person,
several things, I can be just that,"
diverse identities at the same time.
of what's happened in the last year
去年发生的事情的解释
fed up with, if you like,
for want of a better term,
identities and them feeling,
然后他们感觉,
I am being completely ignored here.
I was the majority"?
sparked a lot of the anger.
身份总会带来很多问题,
on fictional stories
of the basic community
and tell one another
are extremely unstable.
is a biological entity.
of soil and blood,
kind of makes a gooey mess.
土壤和血液和在一起是一团糟。
it messes with your mind
没错,而且它还会搞乱你的头脑,
that I am a combination of soil and blood.
that exist today
that's for sure.
lived in small communities
are imagined communities,
all these people.
small nation, Israel,
and perhaps have work taken away,
in one sense expanding,
may have their jobs taken away
that we could end up with
a "useless class" --
你称之为的很大的“无用阶层”,
these people have no use.
we should be terrified about?
very carefully.
我们应该非常仔细的思考这件事。
what the job market will look like
many new jobs will appear,
抢走工作的50岁的卡车司机
for an unemployed truck driver
as a designer of virtual worlds.
虚拟世界的设计者是很难的。
of the industrial revolution,
in one type of work,
from low-skill work
在新的生产中低技术的工作。
agricultural workers,
in low-skill industrial jobs,
by more and more machines,
越来越多的机器抢走的时候,
be new jobs in the future,
designing virtual worlds.
an unemployed cashier from Wal-Mart
as a designer of virtual worlds,
变成一个虚拟世界的设计者,
Bangladeshi textile workers
the Bangladeshis today
highlighting a question
我感觉你很重视一个问题,
the last few months more and more.
to ask in public,
to offer in it, maybe it's yours,
那就是你了,
据我们现在所知,没有任何目的。
some great cosmic plan,
或者宏大的宇宙计划,
what our role is
of our ability.
and ideologies and so forth,
is this is not true.
我能说的是这不是真的。
with a role in it for Homo sapiens.
just for a minute,
and understandable accounts
from intelligence,
that we're building in machines,
of mystery around it.
what this sentience thing is?
isn't there a chance
is to be the universe's sentient things,
and happiness and hope?
that actually help amplify that,
sentient themselves?
reading your book.
interesting question today in science
我相信现在科学最有意思的问题是
of consciousness and the mind.
in understanding the brain
and consciousness.
and consciousness,
because in humans, they go together.
因为在人类身上,这两个是相似的。
is the ability to solve problems.
to feel things,
and boredom and pain and so forth.
as well -- it's not unique to humans --
and some other animals,
go together.
in places like Silicon Valley
artificial intelligence
in computer intelligence
in computer consciousness,
are going to become conscious
some cosmic role for consciousness,
意识在宇宙中扮演的角色,
chickens are conscious,
we need to broaden our horizons
首先,我们要扩大我们的视野,
the only sentient beings on Earth,
地球上唯一有意识的生物,
there is good reason to think
of the whole bunch.
sentient than whales,
or more sentient than cats,
in that direction, expand.
如果你想要搞清楚,扩大视野。
of what is it for,
sentience is for anything.
to find our role in the universe.
在宇宙中找到我们的角色。
is to liberate ourselves from suffering.
suffer, can suffer,
in some mysterious cosmic drama.
宇宙戏剧中找到他们的角色。
what suffering is,
to be liberated from it.
and that was very eloquent.
我知道这对你是一个非常重要的问题。
of questions from the audience here,
at the back if you want the mic,
about the fictional stories
你谈论了很多关于
that you choose to live your life,
with the truth, like all of us?
这些故事和现实混在一起吗?
important question,
between fiction and reality,
to tell the difference
as history progressed,
这变得越来越困难,
that we have created --
and corporations --
that we've created,"
between fiction and reality.
that I can say in short,
我能够简而言之的,
in the First World War,"
“德国因为一战的失败而痛苦。”
Germany has no mind.
but Germany cannot.
没错,但是德国不可以。
the dollar doesn't suffer.
美元无法感受痛苦。
美国人能够感受痛苦。
really want to see reality,
what suffering is,
here that connects to this,
Facebook上有一个问题,
in a language that I cannot read.
CA: Hebrew. There you go.
克里斯·安德森:噢,希伯来语。
really a brand-new era,
真的是一个全新的时期,
in a never-ending trend?
with this idea of post-truth.
我不同意“真相后”这个概念。
when the hell was the era of truth?
真相的时期是什么时候?
the Middle Ages?
50年代还是中世纪时期?
in an era, in a way, of post-truth.
are talking about
where you had fewer journalistic outlets,
that things were fact-checked.
of those organizations
should connect to reality in a real way,
it was a serious, earnest attempt
这是一个很严肃重要的
that had actually happened.
that's incredibly powerful
massively amplified anything
it connected to reality,
to clicks and attention,
the technology changes,
没错,随着科技发展,
both truth and fiction and falsehood.
the truth than it was ever before.
is anything essentially new
fictions and errors.
Joseph Goebbels, didn't know
news and post-truth.
a lie often enough,
that something so big can be a lie.
这么夸张的事情是一个谎言。
has been with us for thousands of years.
with tyrannical regimes,
that there may be dark times coming.
黑暗的时代可能会到来。
of fake news is a disturbing sign.
虚假新闻的使用是很令人不安的。
I'm just saying that it's not new.
我只是说这不是什么新鲜的东西。
on Facebook on this question
在Facebook上对这个问题有很多关注,
versus nationalism.
to relinquish power?
actually, the text is so big
but I blame the text right here.
我篡改了你的问题,但是我怪文字。
that some people talk about
人们谈论的一个选择,
can shake humankind
of global governance,
before the catastrophe,
laying the foundations
the motivation to do such a thing
interested in global governance
local identities and communities,
in the mindset of a lot of people
and it has let them down,
它还让人们失望过,
global governance -- no, go away!
不要,走开!
as the ultimate poke in the eye
so scary and remote?
of it being compatible
about Homo sapiens
completely dependent
about a global system.
about Homo sapiens
on a very, very local level.
based on all kinds of imaginary stories
都是基于某种虚构故事,
understanding of our species,
in the 21st century,
and the local community.
with the body itself.
of alienation and loneliness
is not global capitalism.
the last hundred years,
from their body.
采集生活的人或者一个农民,
constantly in touch
to look for mushrooms
to what you hear,
people are losing their ability
and their senses,
and loneliness and so forth,
some mass nationalism,
in touch with your body,
in the world also.
we may all be back in the forest soon.
我们可能很快会回到森林里。
one more question in the room
West Africa, and my question is:
我来自非洲西部的加纳,我的问题是
and justify the idea of global governance
historically disenfranchised
global governance,
come from a very Westernized idea
认为的“世界”的模样。
is supposed to look like.
that idea of global
and Nigeria and Togo
that history is extremely unfair,
我认为历史是非常不公平的,
which are also most likely to suffer most
very clear about that.
will be in Sudan, will be in Syria,
会在苏丹,会在叙利亚,
will be in those places.
have an even greater incentive
the next wave of disruption,
or whether it's technological.
technological disruption,
will take the jobs
or in Bangladesh.
because history is so unfair
between everybody,
will be able to get away
of climate change
will not be able to.
from Cameron Taylor on Facebook:
Facebook上的卡梅伦·泰勒有一个好问题,
we should want to want?"
to want to know the truth,
我认为我们应该想要了解真相,
to our own wishes,
want to understand it.
trajectory of history,
for thousands of years
control of the world outside us
to fit our own desires.
of the other animals,
is we turn our gaze inwards,
of the world outside us
of the world inside us.
and industry in the 21st century --
of the world inside us,
bodies and brains and minds.
products of the 21st century economy.
very often they think in terms,
经常他们想的是
of my body and of my brain."
我的身体和大脑的控制权。”
from our previous history,
the power to manipulate,
understand the complexity
了解生态系统的复杂性,
the world inside us
the complexity of our mental system,
ecological disaster,
meltdown inside us.
together here --
the coming technology,
you've just outlined --
are in quite a bleak place
how would you state that?
dangerous possibilities
my job or responsibility
on the positive sides,
and philosophers and sociologists
of all these new technologies.
kinds of societies.
of the Industrial Revolution,
a communist dictatorship
or a liberal democracy.
what to do with them.
and bioengineering and all of that --
to the challenge of a new technology
will end in a nuclear catastrophe,
humans all over the world
international politics
their interests with warfare.
but many countries have.
但是许多做到了。
the most important reason
declined dramatically since 1945,
more people commit suicide
margin for error.
a second option to try again.
这是一个很有利的说服点,
this to a conclusion.
one thing to people here
watching online, anyone watching online:
和所有在网络上观看的人说:
a different kind of conversation,
with people you disagree with,
these conversations forward
in the world right now.
in a wise, wise way.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Yuval Noah Harari - Historian, authorIn his book "Homo Deus," Yuval Noah Harari explores the future of humankind: the destinies we may set for ourselves and the quests we'll undertake.
Why you should listen
In his book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow, Yuval Noah Harari explores the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the 21st century -- from overcoming death to creating artificial life. He maps the future and asks fundamental questions: Where do we go from here? How will we protect this fragile world from our own destructive powers? The book has sold four million copies since its publication in 2016.
Harari's previous book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, explores what made homo sapiens the most successful species on the planet. His answer: We are the only animal that can believe in things that exist purely in our imagination, such as gods, states, money, human rights, corporations and other fictions, and we have developed a unique ability to use these stories to unify and organize groups and ensure cooperation. Sapiens has sold eight million copies and been translated into more than 50 languages. Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and President Barack Obama have recommended it as a must-read.
Harari lectures as a Professor of history at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he specializes in world history, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relationship between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? Harari has written for newspapers such as The Guardian, Financial Times, the Times, Nature magazine and the Wall Street Journal.
Harari's new book, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, will take the pulse of our current global climate, focusing on the biggest questions of the present moment: What is really happening right now? What are today’s greatest challenges and choices? What should we pay attention to? The book will be published in multiple languages in September 2018.
Yuval Noah Harari | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com