TEDGlobal 2005
David Deutsch: Chemical scum that dream of distant quasars
David Deutsch讲述我们在宇宙中的位置
Filmed:
Readability: 4.6
2,534,562 views
著名科学家David Deutsh将理论物理搁置一旁，而对一个更为急迫的话题展开论述：人类的存续。他表示，解决全球暖化的第一步是承认我们有问题需要解决。
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
We've been told to go out on a limb and say something surprising.
0
0
6000
主办方要求我们大胆陈述，做到语不惊人死不休。
00:30
So I'll try and do that, but
1
6000
1000
因此我会努力达到这一点。但是
00:31
I want to start with two things that everyone already knows.
2
7000
7000
我想先从大家都知道的两件事说起。
00:38
And the first one, in fact, is something that
3
14000
2000
第一件事，事实上这是
00:40
has been known for most of recorded history.
4
16000
4000
从有记录的历史以来就众所周知的事。
00:44
And that is that the planet Earth, or the solar system,
5
20000
5000
这就是地球，或者太阳系，
00:49
or our environment or whatever,
6
25000
2000
或者说我们的环境，或诸如此类，
00:51
is uniquely suited to sustain our evolution -- or creation, as it used to be thought --
7
27000
10000
独一无二地适合维持我们的进化，或者说创造，正如我们之前所理解的一样--
01:01
and our present existence, and most important, our future survival.
8
37000
7000
适合我们当下的生存，最重要的是我们未来的生存。
01:08
Nowadays this idea has a dramatic name: Spaceship Earth.
9
44000
5000
今天这个概念有一个戏剧化的名字：太空船地球。
01:13
And the idea there is that outside the spaceship,
10
49000
2000
在这个概念里，太空船之外
01:15
the universe is implacably hostile,
11
51000
3000
宇宙不可调和地充满敌意，
01:18
and inside is all we have, all we depend on.
12
54000
4000
而其内部是我们所赖以生存的一切。
01:22
And we only get the one chance: if we mess up our spaceship,
13
58000
3000
我们只有一次机会：如果我们将我们的太空船折腾坏了，
01:25
we've got nowhere else to go.
14
61000
2000
我们将无处可去。
01:27
Now, the second thing that everyone already knows is that
15
63000
4000
第二件大家都知道的事是
01:31
contrary to what was believed for most of human history,
16
67000
4000
与我们在人类历史中大部分时间所坚信的相反
01:35
human beings are not, in fact, the hub of existence.
17
71000
6000
人类事实上并不是存在的中心。
01:41
As Stephen Hawking famously said,
18
77000
3000
大家都知道Stephen Hawking说过
01:44
we're just a chemical scum on the surface of a typical planet
19
80000
4000
我们只是存在于一个典型星球表面的一些化学污垢
01:48
that's in orbit around a typical star,
20
84000
3000
这个典型星球环绕着一个典型恒星绕行太空，
01:51
which is on the outskirts of a typical galaxy, and so on.
21
87000
5000
而这个典型恒星位于一个典型银河系的边缘，以此类推。
01:56
Now the first of those two things that everyone knows
22
92000
3000
大家都知道的两件事当中的第一件
01:59
is kind of saying that we're at a very un-typical place,
23
95000
4000
大概是说我们存在于一个非常不典型的地方，
02:03
uniquely suited and so on, and
24
99000
3000
独一无二的适合性等，
02:06
the second one is saying that we're at a typical place.
25
102000
3000
而第二件事却说我们存在于一个典型的地方。
02:09
And especially if you regard these two as deep truths to live by
26
105000
4000
尤其是当你将这两件事当作生命中深刻的真理
02:13
and to inform your life decisions,
27
109000
3000
并以此作为你人生决策的依据，
02:16
then they seem a little bit to conflict with each other.
28
112000
7000
那么他们似乎彼此有些冲突。
02:23
But that doesn't prevent them from both being completely false. (Laughter)
29
119000
6000
但是这也没法改变他们都是彻底错误的这一事实。（观众笑声）
02:29
And they are. So let me start with the second one:
30
125000
8000
他们就是错误的。让我从第二件事说起：
02:37
Typical. Well -- is this a typical place? Well, let's look around, you know,
31
133000
6000
典型。让我们看一下--这是一个典型的地方吗？让我们看一下四周，如你所见，
02:43
and look in a random direction, and we see a wall, and chemical scum -- (Laughter)
32
139000
8000
随便超哪个方向望去，我们会看到一堵墙，还有一些化学污垢 -- （观众笑声）
02:51
-- and that's not typical of the universe at all.
33
147000
5000
-- 而这在宇宙中一点也不典型。
02:56
All you've got to do is go a few hundred miles in that same direction and look back,
34
152000
4000
你所要做得是，朝着同一个方向前行数百英里然后往回看，
03:00
and you won't see any walls or chemical scum at all --
35
156000
4000
你将根本不会看到任何墙或者化学污垢 --
03:04
all you see is a blue planet. And if you go further than that,
36
160000
4000
你所能看到是一个蓝色星球。如果你继续前行，
03:08
you'll see the sun, the solar system, and the stars and so on.
37
164000
5000
你会看到太阳，太阳系，以及恒星等等。
03:13
But that's still not typical of the universe, because stars come in galaxies.
38
169000
5000
然而这在宇宙中仍然不算典型，因为恒星存在于星系中。
03:18
And most places in the universe, a typical place in the universe,
39
174000
5000
宇宙中的大部分地方，或者说宇宙中一个典型的地方，
03:23
is nowhere near any galaxies.
40
179000
2000
不是任何靠近星系的地方。
03:25
So let's go out further, till we're outside the galaxy, and look back,
41
181000
6000
因此我们继续前行，直到我们走出星系，然后再往回看，
03:31
and yeah, there's the huge galaxy with spiral arms laid out in front of us.
42
187000
4000
是的，你会看到巨大的星系，它螺旋形的触手展现在我们面前。
03:35
And at this point we've come 100,000 light years from here.
43
191000
7000
而到达此地，我们已经跨越了十万光年。
03:42
But we're still nowhere near a typical place in the universe.
44
198000
5000
但是我们仍然一点也没有靠近宇宙中的典型地方。
03:47
To get to a typical place,
45
203000
2000
要到达典型地方，
03:49
you've got to go 1,000 times as far as that into intergalactic space.
46
205000
7000
你需要跨越此距离的1000倍，直到你到达星系与星系中间的地方。
03:56
And so what does that look like? Typical.
47
212000
3000
那里看上去是什么样子呢？典型的。
03:59
What does a typical place in the universe look like?
48
215000
3000
那么宇宙中一个典型的地方看上去是怎样的呢？
04:02
Well, at enormous expense, TED has arranged a high-resolution immersion
49
218000
6000
在这里，TED不惜代价，给大家安排了一次高清晰的
04:08
virtual reality rendering of intergalactic space
50
224000
4000
模拟的星系间空间的真实体验
04:12
-- the view from intergalactic space.
51
228000
2000
-- 星系间空间的景观。
04:14
So can we have the lights off, please, so we can see it?
52
230000
4000
请将电灯关闭，我们就可以看到了。
04:22
Well, not quite, not quite perfect -- you see, in intergalactic space
53
238000
6000
不太准确，不是非常完美 -- 看到了吗？星系间的空间
04:28
-- intergalactic space is completely dark, pitch dark.
54
244000
4000
--星系间的空间是彻底黑暗的，极端地黑暗。♪
04:32
It's so dark that if you were to be looking at the nearest star to you,
55
248000
8000
这个空间是如此的黑暗，假使你正盯着离你最近的恒星，
04:40
and that star were to explode as a supernova,
56
256000
3000
这颗恒星正好发生超新星爆炸，
04:44
and you were to be staring directly at it at the moment when its light reached you,
57
260000
5000
当光线射到你的时候，假使你正直勾勾地盯着它看，
04:49
you still wouldn't be able to see even a glimmer.
58
265000
4000
你甚至连微弱的闪光都无法看到。
04:53
That's how big and how dark the universe is.
59
269000
3000
宇宙就是如此的巨大和如此的黑暗。
04:56
And that's despite the fact that a supernova is so bright, so brilliant an event,
60
272000
7000
这还没有考虑超新星爆炸的光线是如此强烈和明亮，
05:03
that it would kill you stone dead at a range of several light years. (Laughter)
61
279000
6000
你在距离它数光年的地方会立马毙命。
05:09
And yet from intergalactic space, it's so far away you wouldn't even see it.
62
285000
4000
但是在星系间的空间，它是如此的遥远，你甚至无法看见。
05:13
It's also very cold out there
63
289000
3000
那里也非常寒冷
05:16
-- less than three degrees above absolute zero.
64
292000
4000
-- 不超过绝对零度三度。
05:20
And it's very empty. The vacuum there is one million times less dense
65
296000
6000
什么都没有。那里真空的浓度比
05:26
than the highest vacuum that our best technology on Earth can currently
66
302000
3000
目前地球上最好的技术可以产生的真空浓度的100万分之一还要小。
05:29
create. So that's how different a typical place is from this place.
67
305000
8000
所以这就是宇宙里一个典型的地方与这儿如何地不同。
05:37
And that is how un-typical this place is.
68
313000
3000
也就是说我们现在所处的这个地方是如此地不典型。
05:40
So can we have the lights back on please? Thank you.
69
316000
5000
请开灯，谢谢。
05:45
Now how do we know about an environment that's so far away,
70
321000
5000
那么我们如何了解距离我们如此遥远的一个环境呢？
05:50
and so different, and so alien, from anything we're used to?
71
326000
4000
与我们所熟悉的一切相比，它是如此不同，如此陌生。
05:54
Well, the Earth -- our environment, in the form of us -- is creating knowledge.
72
330000
5000
地球 -- 我们的环境，以我们这一形式存在 -- 创造知识。
05:59
Well, what does that mean? Well, look out even further than we've just been --
73
335000
5000
这又意味着什么呢？向我们刚去过的地方的更远处望去--
06:04
I mean from here, with a telescope -- and you'll see things that look like stars.
74
340000
5000
我的意思是从这里开始，利用望远镜 -- 你会看到类似恒星的东西。
06:09
They're called "quasars." Quasars originally meant quasi-stellar object.
75
345000
5000
他们叫做类星体。类星体原意是指类似恒星的物体。
06:14
Which means things that look a bit like stars. (Laughter) But they're not stars.
76
350000
5000
也就是说是指看上去有点像恒星的物体。（观众笑声）但是他们不是恒星。
06:19
And we know what they are. Billions of years ago, and billions of light years away,
77
355000
8000
我们已经知道他们是什么了。数十亿年前，数十亿光年之外，
06:27
the material at the center of a galaxy collapsed towards a
78
363000
4000
一个星系中心的物质朝着
06:31
super-massive black hole.
79
367000
2000
一个超级巨大的黑洞塌陷。
06:33
And then intense magnetic fields directed some of the energy of
80
369000
5000
随后密集的磁场对重力塌陷中的一些能量产生了导向作用。
06:38
that gravitational collapse. And some of the matter,
81
374000
3000
其中一些物质，
06:41
back out in the form of tremendous jets which illuminated lobes with the brilliance of
82
377000
5000
以巨大的喷射流的形式逃离，照亮了宏伟的太空，
06:46
-- I think it's a trillion suns.
83
382000
6000
-- 我认为相当于一千亿个太阳的光亮。
06:52
Now, the physics of the human brain could hardly be more unlike the physics of such a jet.
84
388000
6000
然而，与这样一个喷射流的物理相比，我们人类大脑的物理大相径庭到极点。
06:58
We couldn't survive for an instant in it. Language breaks down
85
394000
4000
在这样的环境里，我们连一瞬间都无法生存。
07:02
when trying to describe what it would be like in one of those jets.
86
398000
4000
当我们试着描述那样的喷射流中的状况，语言变得无法表达。
07:06
It would be a bit like experiencing a supernova explosion,
87
402000
3000
这可能有点像经历一次超新星爆炸，
07:09
but at point-blank range and for millions of years at a time. (Laughter)
88
405000
7000
但是是在零距离接触并且将数百万年的能量集中到同一时间爆发。（观众笑声）
07:16
And yet, that jet happened in precisely such a way that billions of years later,
89
412000
8000
但是，这个喷射流发生得如此地精确，以至于数十亿年后
07:24
on the other side of the universe, some bit of chemical scum could accurately describe,
90
420000
6000
在宇宙的另一端，一些化学污垢可以准确地描述，
07:30
and model, and predict, and explain, above all -- there's your reference
91
426000
6000
建立模型，并预测和解释，最重要的是 -- 你可以找得到参考
07:36
-- what was happening there, in reality.
92
432000
5000
-- 现实中曾经发生过的事。
07:41
The one physical system, the brain,
93
437000
2000
一个物理系统，大脑，
07:43
contains an accurate working model of the other -- the quasar.
94
439000
4000
包含了另外一个物理系统的准确工作模型 -- 类星体。
07:47
Not just a superficial image of it, though it contains that as well,
95
443000
4000
不仅仅是一个粗浅的图像，虽然也包含图像，
07:51
but an explanatory model, embodying the same mathematical
96
447000
4000
而且还包含解释性的模型，表达同样的数学
07:55
relationships and the same causal structure.
97
451000
3000
关系和一样的因果结构。
07:58
Now that is knowledge. And if that weren't amazing enough,
98
454000
5000
这就是知识。如果这还不够让你惊讶的话，
08:03
the faithfulness with which the one structure resembles the other
99
459000
4000
一个结构表达另外一个的准确性
08:07
is increasing with time. That is the growth of knowledge.
100
463000
5000
正随着时间不断提高。这就是知识的增长。
08:12
So, the laws of physics have this special property.
101
468000
3000
因此，物理规律拥有这样一个特殊的性质。
08:15
That physical objects, as unlike each other as they could possibly be,
102
471000
5000
物体，不管他们彼此多么相异，
08:20
can nevertheless embody the same mathematical and causal structure
103
476000
5000
却仍然能够表现同样的数学和因果结构，
08:25
and to do it more and more so over time.
104
481000
4000
而且随着时间增长表现得越来越多。
08:29
So we are a chemical scum that is different. This chemical scum has universality.
105
485000
7000
因此我们是与众不同的化学污垢。这一化学污垢拥有普适性。
08:36
Its structure contains, with ever-increasing precision,
106
492000
4000
它的结构准确度越来越高地包容着，
08:40
the structure of everything. This place, and not other places in the universe,
107
496000
5000
世界万物的结构。这个地方，不是宇宙中任何其他地方，
08:45
is a hub which contains within itself the structural and causal essence of the
108
501000
7000
在它自身内部，成为一个包容了其他一切宇宙万物结构性和因果性精髓的中心。
08:52
whole of the rest of physical reality. And so, far from being insignificant,
109
508000
4000
因此，意义深远的是，
08:56
the fact that the laws of physics allow this, or even mandate that this can happen,
110
512000
6000
物理规律允许这一现象，抑或甚至主导了它的发生这一事实
09:02
is one of the most important things about the physical world.
111
518000
5000
是关于物理世界的最重要的事情之一。
09:07
Now how does the solar system -- and our environment, in the form of us --
112
523000
6000
那么太阳系-- 我们的环境，以我们的形式--
09:13
acquire this special relationship with the rest of the universe?
113
529000
3000
是如何获取这样一个与宇宙其他部分的特殊关系的呢？
09:16
Well, one thing that's true about Stephen Hawking's remark -- I mean, it is true,
114
532000
6000
Stephen Hawking观点中其中一个正确面--我的意思是，这是正确的，
09:22
but it's the wrong emphasis. (Laughter) One thing that's true about it is that
115
538000
4000
但是着重点是错的。其中一个正确面是
09:26
it doesn't do it with any special physics. There's no special dispensation,
116
542000
6000
它并没有倚赖任何特殊的物理学。没有特殊的放宽，
09:32
no miracles involved. It does it simply with three things that we have here in abundance.
117
548000
6000
没有奇迹发生。它的发生只依赖于我们现在富有的三种东西。
09:38
One of them is matter, because the growth of knowledge is a form of
118
554000
5000
其中一个是物质，因为知识的增长是一种信息处理的形式。
09:43
information processing. Information processing is computation,
119
559000
4000
信息处理需要计算，
09:47
computation requires a computer --
120
563000
2000
计算需要电脑--
09:49
there's no known way of making a computer without matter.
121
565000
3000
现有的知识下不可能不需要物质来制造电脑。
09:52
We also need energy to make the computer, and most important,
122
568000
3000
我们还需要能量来制造电脑，最重要的是，
09:55
to make the media in effect onto which we record the knowledge that we discover.
123
571000
6000
要使得用来记录我们所发现知识的媒介工作。
10:01
And then thirdly, less tangible, but just as essential for the open-ended creation
124
577000
6000
第三种东西，较难感触得到，但是在开放式的知识和解释的开发中
10:07
of knowledge, of explanations, is evidence.
125
583000
5000
同样关键的是证据。
10:12
Now, our environment is inundated with evidence.
126
588000
4000
我们的环境中充满了证据。
10:16
We happen to get round to testing, let's say, Newton's Law of Gravity
127
592000
6000
但是我们常常忽略了测试--比如，牛顿的地球引力定律
10:22
about 300 years ago.
128
598000
2000
--大约是在300年前提出的。
10:24
But the evidence that we used to do that was falling down on every square meter
129
600000
6000
但是我们习以为常的证据，从数十亿年前就在地球上的每个角落里不断坠落，
10:30
of the Earth for billions of years before that, and will continue to fall on for billions of years
130
606000
5000
也会在接下来的数十亿年里继续坠落。
10:35
afterwards. And the same is true for all the other sciences.
131
611000
4000
其他科学也同样如此。
10:39
As far as we know, evidence to discover the most fundamental truths
132
615000
5000
就我们所知，发掘所有科学大部分基本真理的证据
10:44
of all the sciences is here just for the taking on our planet.
133
620000
4000
就在我们的星球上等待我们获取。
10:48
Our location is saturated with evidence, and also with matter and energy.
134
624000
6000
我们所在的地方充满了证据，还有物质和能量。
10:54
Out in intergalactic space, those three prerequisites
135
630000
3000
而在星系间的空间中，这三个
10:57
for the open-ended creation of knowledge are at their lowest possible supply.
136
633000
5000
创造开放式知识的前提条件存在的可能性极端之小。
11:02
As I said, it's empty; it's cold; and it's dark out there. Or is it?
137
638000
6000
正如我所说，那里空无一物，寒冷，黑暗。抑或不是如此？
11:08
Now actually, that's just another parochial misconception. (Laughter)
138
644000
5000
事实上，这只是另外一个狭隘的误解。（观众笑声）
11:13
Because imagine a cube out there in intergalactic space, the same size as
139
649000
7000
假想在星系间空间有一个立方体存在，
11:20
our home, the solar system. Now that cube is very empty by human standards,
140
656000
5000
与我们的房屋般大小，太阳系。以我们的标准来看，这个立方体非常空，
11:25
but that still means that it contains over a million tons of matter.
141
661000
5000
但是它事实上仍然包含着超过百万吨的物质。
11:30
And a million tons is enough to make, say, a self-contained space station,
142
666000
5000
一百万吨足够建造一个，比方说，自给自足的空间站，
11:35
on which there's a colony of scientists that are devoted to creating an
143
671000
4000
在这个空间站内聚居着一群科学家，他们致力于不断创造
11:39
open-ended stream of knowledge, and so on.
144
675000
3000
开放式的知识，等等。
11:42
Now, it's way beyond present technology to even gather the hydrogen
145
678000
4000
然而，现在的科技甚至连从星系间空间收集氢气
11:46
from intergalactic space and form it into other elements and so on.
146
682000
5000
和将其转化成别的元素等都远不能做到。
11:51
But the thing is, in a comprehensible universe,
147
687000
4000
但问题是，在一个可理解的宇宙中，
11:55
if something isn't forbidden by the laws of physics,
148
691000
3000
如果某事是物理定律所允许的，
11:58
then what could possibly prevent us from doing it, other than knowing how?
149
694000
4000
那么在我们知道如何运作的情况下，什么会妨碍我们去实践它呢？
12:02
In other words, it's a matter of knowledge, not resources.
150
698000
4000
换句话说，这是一个关于知识的问题，而不是关于资源。
12:06
And the same -- well, if we could do that we'd automatically have an energy supply,
151
702000
3000
同样，如果我们可以做到的话，那么我们将自动获得能源供给，
12:09
because the transmutation would be a fusion reactor -- and evidence?
152
705000
6000
因为这里的变化将是核反应堆 -- 证据？
12:15
Well, again, it's dark out there to human senses. But all you've got to do is
153
711000
4000
还是一样，对人类的感官来说那里漆黑一片。但是你所需要做的是
12:19
take a telescope, even one of present-day design,
154
715000
3000
拿起一个望远镜，甚至是今天的技术设计，
12:22
look out and you'll see the same galaxies as we do from here.
155
718000
5000
往外看去，你会看到我们从这儿看到的同样的星系。
12:27
And with a more powerful telescope, you'll be able to see stars, and planets.
156
723000
4000
如果你有一个更强大的望远镜，你将能看到恒星和行星。
12:31
In those galaxies, you'll be able to do astrophysics, and learn the laws of physics.
157
727000
4000
在那些星系里，你可以进行天体物理学研究，了解物理定律。
12:35
And locally there you could build particle accelerators,
158
731000
3000
在你所处的位置，你可以制造粒子加速器,
12:38
and learn elementary particle physics, and chemistry, and so on.
159
734000
3000
研究初级粒子物理学，化学等。
12:41
Probably the hardest science to do would be biology field trips -- (Laughter) -- because it would take
160
737000
7000
也许最难做的科学研究是生物学实地考察，因为需要花费
12:48
several hundred million years to get to the nearest life-bearing planet and back.
161
744000
5000
数百万年才能往返最近的有生命的星球。
12:53
But I have to tell you -- and sorry, Richard --
162
749000
3000
但是我必须告诉你 -- 对不起，Richard --
12:56
but I never did like biology field trips much,
163
752000
3000
但是我从来都不是那么喜欢生物学实地考察，
12:59
and I think we can just about make do with one every few hundred million years.
164
755000
5000
我想我们可以每数百万年才进行一次。
13:04
(Laughter)
165
760000
2000
（观众笑声）
13:06
So in fact, intergalactic space does contain all the prerequisites for the open-ended
166
762000
9000
因此事实上，星系间空间并不具备创造开放式知识的前提条件。
13:15
creation of knowledge. Any such cube, anywhere in the universe,
167
771000
4000
任何一个这样的立方体，在宇宙中任何地方，
13:19
could become the same kind of hub that we are,
168
775000
4000
都可以成为跟我们一样的中心，
13:23
if the knowledge of how to do so were present there.
169
779000
7000
如果履行这一计划的知识确实存在的话。
13:30
So we're not in a uniquely hospitable place.
170
786000
3000
因此我们并不是唯一热情好客的地方。
13:33
If intergalactic space is capable of creating an open-ended stream of explanations,
171
789000
5000
如果星系间空间可以创造出一串开放式的解说，
13:38
then so is almost every other environment. So is the Earth. So is a polluted Earth.
172
794000
7000
那么几乎其它所有的环境都是可以的。地球也一样。被污染的地球也是一样。
13:45
And the limiting factor, there and here, is not resources, because they're plentiful,
173
801000
6000
而限制性因素，这里和那里，不是资源，因为资源很充沛，
13:51
but knowledge, which is scarce.
174
807000
3000
而是知识，非常匮乏。
13:54
Now this cosmic knowledge-based view may -- and I think ought to
175
810000
6000
这样一个知识型的宇宙观也许 -- 我认为应该
14:00
-- make us feel very special. But it should also make us feel vulnerable,
176
816000
5000
-- 让我们感觉非常不平凡。但同时也让我们感觉到自己的脆弱,
14:05
because it means that without the specific knowledge that's needed to survive
177
821000
4000
因为这也意味着如果没有那些必需的具体的知识来帮助我们应对宇宙中
14:09
the ongoing challenges of the universe, we won't survive them.
178
825000
4000
源源不断地挑战，我们将无法生存。
14:13
All it takes is for a supernova to go off a few light years away, and we'll all be dead!
179
829000
5000
仅仅是几光年外的一个超新星爆炸，我们都将必死无疑。
14:18
Martin Rees has recently written a book about our vulnerability to all sorts of things,
180
834000
6000
Martin Rees最近刚写了一本关于我们人类对于所有事物的脆弱性的书，
14:24
from astrophysics, to scientific experiments gone wrong,
181
840000
4000
从天体物理学，到科学实验事故，
14:28
and most importantly to terrorism with weapons of mass destruction.
182
844000
4000
还有最重要的拥有大规模杀伤性武器的恐怖主义。
14:32
And he thinks that civilization has only a 50 percent chance of surviving this century.
183
848000
5000
他认为人类文明只有50%的机率可以存活过这个世纪。
14:37
I think he's going to talk about that later in the conference.
184
853000
4000
我想他晚些时候会在这个会上给大家讲述。
14:41
Now I don't think that probability is the right category to discuss this issue in.
185
857000
6000
但是我认为这一问题并不适合用机率来描述。
14:47
But I do agree with him about this. We can survive, and we can fail to survive.
186
863000
7000
但是我同意他就此的看法。我们可以生存下去，我们也可能不会存续。
14:54
But it depends not on chance, but on whether we create the relevant knowledge in time.
187
870000
6000
但是这并不取决于机率，而是我们是否可以及时创造出相关的知识。
15:00
The danger is not at all unprecedented. Species go extinct all the time.
188
876000
6000
这种危险肯定不是前所未有的。物种一直都在灭绝。
15:06
Civilizations end. The overwhelming majority of all species and all civilizations
189
882000
6000
文明也会终止。绝大多数存在过的物种和文明
15:12
that have ever existed are now history.
190
888000
2000
都以成历史。
15:14
And if we want to be the exception to that, then logically our only hope
191
890000
6000
如果我们想成为例外的话，逻辑上来看我们唯一的希望
15:20
is to make use of the one feature that distinguishes our species,
192
896000
5000
是利用将我们这个种群和文明与其他物种区别开的这个特征，
15:25
and our civilization, from all the others --
193
901000
3000
与其他一切都区别开的这个特征。
15:28
namely, our special relationship with the laws of physics,
194
904000
4000
也就是，我们与物理定律得特殊关系。
15:32
our ability to create new explanations, new knowledge -- to be a hub of existence.
195
908000
8000
我们创造新的解释和知识的能力 -- 成为存在的中心。
15:40
So let me now apply this to a current controversy,
196
916000
4000
让我将此运用到当前的一个论战中，
15:44
not because I want to advocate any particular solution,
197
920000
3000
不是因为我想提议任何特定的解决方法，
15:47
but just to illustrate the kind of thing I mean.
198
923000
2000
而只是用来阐明我所要讲述的一些事。
15:49
And the controversy is global warming.
199
925000
3000
这个论战就是全球暖化。
15:52
Now, I'm a physicist, but I'm not the right kind of physicist. In regard to global warming,
200
928000
5000
我是一个物理学家，但我并不是此领域的物理学家。就全球暖化来说，
15:57
I'm just a layman. And the rational thing for a layman to do is to take seriously
201
933000
6000
我只是个门外汉。对一个门外汉来说理智的做法是
16:03
the prevailing scientific theory. And according to that theory,
202
939000
5000
严肃对待权威的科学理论。而根据这一理论，
16:08
it's already too late to avoid a disaster.
203
944000
3000
已经太晚了，灾难在所难免。
16:11
Because if it's true that our best option at the moment is to prevent CO2 emissions
204
947000
6000
因为，如果我们目前最好的选择是阻止二氧化碳排放的话，
16:17
with something like the Kyoto Protocol, with its constraints on economic activity
205
953000
4000
例如通过东京议定书之类的，限制经济活动，
16:21
and its enormous cost of hundreds of billions of dollars or whatever it is,
206
957000
4000
以及花费千亿美元等巨大的代价，
16:25
then that is already a disaster by any reasonable measure.
207
961000
5000
那么不管如何衡量，这就已经是一个灾难了。
16:30
And the actions that are advocated are not even purported to solve the problem,
208
966000
5000
倡议的行动甚至都不是为解决问题，
16:35
merely to postpone it by a little. So it's already too late to avoid it, and it
209
971000
5000
而只是稍微推迟灾难的到来。因此灾难在所难免，一切都已晚，
16:40
probably has been too late to avoid it ever since before anyone realized the danger.
210
976000
6000
或在所有人意识到这个危险之前就已经太晚了。
16:46
It was probably already too late in the 1970s,
211
982000
4000
上世纪70年代的时候也许就已经太晚了，
16:50
when the best available scientific theory was telling us that industrial emissions
212
986000
4000
那时候最先进的科学理论告诉我们工业排放
16:54
were about to precipitate a new ice age in which billions would die.
213
990000
5000
将促成一个新的冰河世纪，数十亿的人类将从此灭亡。
16:59
Now the lesson of that seems clear to me,
214
995000
3000
这一教训对我来说清晰可见，
17:02
and I don't know why it isn't informing public debate.
215
998000
3000
我不明白为什么它没有传达至公众辩论。
17:05
It is that we can't always know. When we know of an impending disaster,
216
1001000
6000
事实是我们不可能永远知道。当我们知道有一个灾难将要降临，
17:11
and how to solve it at a cost less than the cost of the disaster itself,
217
1007000
5000
应对这个灾难的成本要比灾难本身小，
17:16
then there's not going to be much argument, really.
218
1012000
2000
那么就真的没有什么好争论的。
17:18
But no precautions, and no precautionary principle,
219
1014000
5000
但是没有任何预防措施，或者预防原则
17:23
can avoid problems that we do not yet foresee.
220
1019000
4000
可以帮助我们避免我们还没有预测到的问题。
17:27
Hence, we need a stance of problem-fixing, not just problem-avoidance.
221
1023000
9000
因此我们需要准备好去解决问题，而不仅仅是避免问题。
17:36
And it's true that an ounce of prevention equals a pound of cure,
222
1032000
3000
一盎司的预防等于一盎司的解决，这是事实，
17:39
but that's only if we know what to prevent.
223
1035000
3000
但是这只是在我们知道预防什么的情况下。
17:42
If you've been punched on the nose, then the science of medicine does not
224
1038000
4000
如果你的鼻子被打了一拳，医学不会教你
17:46
consist of teaching you how to avoid punches. (Laughter)
225
1042000
4000
如何闪躲拳头。
17:50
If medical science stopped seeking cures and concentrated on prevention only,
226
1046000
5000
如果医学不再研究治病的方法，而是仅仅研究预防，
17:55
then it would achieve very little of either.
227
1051000
3000
那么它将几乎一事无成。
17:58
The world is buzzing at the moment with plans to force reductions
228
1054000
4000
目前整个世界都在不计成本地忙着计划来促成
18:02
in gas emissions at all costs.
229
1058000
2000
气体排放量的减少。
18:04
It ought to be buzzing with plans to reduce the temperature,
230
1060000
5000
而它应该赶紧计划如何降低温度，
18:09
and with plans to live at the higher temperature --
231
1065000
3000
以及计划如何在温度升高之后如何生存。
18:12
and not at all costs, but efficiently and cheaply. And some such plans exist,
232
1068000
5000
不是不计成本，而是有效地、廉价的计划。而这样的一些计划已经存在了，
18:17
things like swarms of mirrors in space to deflect the sunlight away,
233
1073000
4000
比如在太空中放置大批镜子来将太阳光反射出去，
18:21
and encouraging aquatic organisms to eat more carbon dioxide.
234
1077000
4000
以及刺激海洋生物消费更多的二氧化碳。
18:25
At the moment, these things are fringe research.
235
1081000
3000
而目前，这些都只是边缘研究。
18:28
They're not central to the human effort to face this problem, or problems in general.
236
1084000
6000
人类在应对这个问题或者广义上来说这些问题的时候，它们起不到核心作用。
18:34
And with problems that we are not aware of yet, the ability to put right --
237
1090000
5000
对于我们并未知觉的问题，纠错的能力 --
18:39
not the sheer good luck of avoiding indefinitely -- is our only hope,
238
1095000
5000
不是无限期的躲过期发生的绝对好运 -- 是我们唯一的希望，
18:44
not just of solving problems, but of survival.
239
1100000
4000
不仅仅是为解决问题，而是为生存。
18:48
So take two stone tablets, and carve on them.
240
1104000
7000
我们应该拿起两块石碑，在上边刻上铭文。
18:55
On one of them, carve: "Problems are soluble."
241
1111000
5000
其中一块刻上”问题是可以解决的“。
19:00
And on the other one carve: "Problems are inevitable."
242
1116000
4000
另外一块刻上”问题是不可避免的“。
19:04
Thank you. (Applause)
243
1120000
2000
谢谢。（观众鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicistDavid Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.
Why you should listen
David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.
In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.
In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.
In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com