TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
Bill Gross: La gran raó per la qual les empreses emergents triomfen.
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Bill Gross ha fundat moltes empreses, i n'ha preparat moltes altres, per això va voler descobrir per què algunes tenien èxit i d'altres, no. Va compilar informació sobre centenars d'empreses, seves i alienes i les va classificar seguint 5 factors claus. Així va trobar un factor que inesperadament superava els altres.
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Em fa molt feliç
compartir amb vosaltres
compartir amb vosaltres
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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uns descobriments insòlits
sobre què fa que les
sobre què fa que les
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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empreses emergents
tinguin èxit,
tinguin èxit,
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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quines són realment
les claus per a que tiromfin.
les claus per a que tiromfin.
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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Em sembla que una startup
00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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és una gran manera
de fer del món un lloc millor.
de fer del món un lloc millor.
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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Si tens un grup de persones
amb els incentius correctes
amb els incentius correctes
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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i els organitzes en una empresa,
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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pots treure el màxim de tots ells
com mai abans s'havia fet.
com mai abans s'havia fet.
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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Pots fer que aconsegueixin
coses increïbles.
coses increïbles.
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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Però si les startups
són tan increïbles,
són tan increïbles,
00:45
why do so many fail?
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per què en fracassen tantes?
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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Això és el que volia descobrir.
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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Volia descobrir
que és el més important
que és el més important
00:51
for startup success.
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per a assolir l’èxit.
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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I volia intentar ser sistemàtic,
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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evitar les idees preconcebudes
i sovint errònies que tinc
i sovint errònies que tinc
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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degut a les múltiples empreses que
he vist durant tants anys.
he vist durant tants anys.
01:00
I wanted to know this
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Volia saber això
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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perquè he creat empreses
des de que tenia 12 anys
des de que tenia 12 anys
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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quan venia caramels a la
parada de bus de l'escola,
parada de bus de l'escola,
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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a l' institut, on feia
aparells d'energia solar,
aparells d'energia solar,
01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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i a la universitat,
on fabricava altaveus.
on fabricava altaveus.
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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I quan vaig acabar els estudis,
vaig crear empreses de software.
vaig crear empreses de software.
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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Fa vint anys,
vaig crear Idealab,
vaig crear Idealab,
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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i en els últims 20 anys,
hem creat mes de 100 empreses.
hem creat mes de 100 empreses.
01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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Moltes han tingut èxit, d'altres, no.
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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Hem après molt dels fracassos.
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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I, per aquest motiu, he intentat esbrinar
quins factors
quins factors
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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tenen més pes en l’èxit i el fracàs
d'una empresa.
d'una empresa.
01:29
So I looked at these five.
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He considerat aquests cinc.
01:31
First, the idea.
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Primer, la idea.
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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Solia pensar que la idea
ho és tot.
ho és tot.
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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La meva empresa es diu Idealab
per la devoció que
per la devoció que
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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tenia sobre el precís moment en
el que tens una idea.
el que tens una idea.
01:39
But then over time,
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Però amb el temps,
01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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vaig començar a pensar que potser l'equip,
l’execució, l'adaptabilitat,
l’execució, l'adaptabilitat,
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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eren més importants que la idea.
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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Mai hauria pensat que citaria a Mike Tyson
en aquest escenari,
en aquest escenari,
01:50
but he once said,
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però ell va dir,
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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"Tothom té un pla, fins que
et colpegen la cara" (Riure)
et colpegen la cara" (Riure)
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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I crec que això és cert en el món
de les empreses també.
de les empreses també.
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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Una part important de
l’execució de l'equip
l’execució de l'equip
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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és l'habilitat d'acostumar-te a
que el client et colpegi la cara.
que el client et colpegi la cara.
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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El client és la veritable realitat.
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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Per això vaig pensar
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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que potser l'equip era
la part més important.
la part més important.
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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Desprès vaig estudiar
el model de negoci.
el model de negoci.
02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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És cert que l'empresa té una visió
clara de com generar beneficis?
clara de com generar beneficis?
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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Vaig començar a
pensar més i més
pensar més i més
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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que aquest podia ser el factor
més important.
més important.
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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També vaig estudiar
el finançament.
el finançament.
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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Moltes empreses reben
grans quantitats de diners.
grans quantitats de diners.
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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És això el més important?
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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I finalment, vaig estudiar l'època.
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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Pot ser que les ideees siguin massa
innovadores pel món?
innovadores pel món?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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Has arribat massa d'hora,
i has com d´educar el món?
i has com d´educar el món?
02:35
Is it just right?
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És el moment adequat?
02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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O has arribat massa tard i ja
tens massa competidors?
tens massa competidors?
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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Vaig estudiar meticulosament
aquests cinc factors
aquests cinc factors
02:41
across many companies.
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en moltes empreses.
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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Vaig analitzar les empreses
creades a Idealab,
creades a Idealab,
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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i altres empreses del mercat
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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per a trobar una resposta
científica al meu estudi.
científica al meu estudi.
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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Primer, en les empreses creades a Idealab,
02:51
the top five companies --
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les cinc primeres empreses:
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero i Tickets.com,
NetZero i Tickets.com,
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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van ser totes grans èxits.
02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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De les cinc últimes empreses:
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory i Peoplelink,
Desktop Factory i Peoplelink,
03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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tots esperàvem molt,
però no van tenir èxit.
però no van tenir èxit.
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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Vaig intentar ordenar les empreses
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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segons la puntuació que jo creia
que tenien en cada apartat.
que tenien en cada apartat.
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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Després, vaig estudiar grans èxits
fora d'Idealab,
fora d'Idealab,
03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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com Airbnb, Instagram, Uber,
Youtube i Linkedin.
Youtube i Linkedin.
03:20
And some failures:
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I alguns fracassos:
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com,
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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Flooz i Friendster.
03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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Aquestes empreses tenien finançament,
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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també tenien models de negoci,
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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però no van tenir èxit.
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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Vaig estudiar els factors que van
pesar més
pesar més
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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en l’èxit i el fracàs de
totes aquestes empreses,
totes aquestes empreses,
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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i els resultats em van sorprendre molt.
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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El primer factor va
ser l'època.
ser l'època.
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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El timing era el 42 %
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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de la diferència
entre l’èxit i el fracàs.
entre l’èxit i el fracàs.
03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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L'equip i l’execució
eren els segons,
eren els segons,
03:46
and the idea,
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i la idea,
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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la diferenciació de la idea,
la unicitat de la idea,
la unicitat de la idea,
03:50
that actually came in third.
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era el tercer factor.
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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Això no és definitiu,
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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no podem dir que la idea no és important,
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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però em va sorprendre molt que la idea
no fos el més important.
no fos el més important.
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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A vegades importava més el "quan".
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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Els dos últims punts: el model de negoci i
el finançament, tenen sentit.
el finançament, tenen sentit.
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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És lògic que el model de
negoci estigui tan baix
negoci estigui tan baix
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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perquè pots començar sense un
model de negoci
model de negoci
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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i crear-lo desprès si els clients
volen el que estàs fent.
volen el que estàs fent.
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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El mateix amb el finançament,
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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si al principi no tens diners però
les coses funcionen,
les coses funcionen,
04:18
especially in today's age,
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especialment avui en dia,
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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és molt fàcil obtenir finançament.
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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Ara parlaré d'exemples específics
de cada un d'aquests factors.
de cada un d'aquests factors.
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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Per exemple, l’èxit d' Airbnb,
del qual tothom parla.
del qual tothom parla.
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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Molts inversors van
rebutjar aquesta empresa,
rebutjar aquesta empresa,
04:30
because people thought,
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perquè pensaven:
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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"Ningú llogarà un espai a casa seva a
algú que no coneixen."
algú que no coneixen."
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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Evidentment, no tenien raó.
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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Però un dels motius del seu èxit,
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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a part d'un bon model de negoci,
una bona idea i una gran execució,
una bona idea i una gran execució,
04:41
is the timing.
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és el timing.
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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L'empresa va aparèixer en un moment de
crisi econòmica,
crisi econòmica,
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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quan la gent
necessitava diners extra,
necessitava diners extra,
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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i això potser va fer
que la gent superés
que la gent superés
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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la por de llogar casa seva
a un desconegut.
a un desconegut.
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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Uber és un cas similar.
04:52
Uber came out,
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Quan va aparèixer
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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era una empresa increïble,
amb un bon model de negoci,
amb un bon model de negoci,
04:56
great execution, too.
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gran execució, també.
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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I el timing va ser perfecte
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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per a incorporar
conductors al sistema.
conductors al sistema.
05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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Els conductors volien diners extra,
això va ser el punt clau.
això va ser el punt clau.
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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Un dels nostres èxits, Citysearch,
va arribar quan la gent volia webs.
va arribar quan la gent volia webs.
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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GoTo.com, el qual vam anunciar
a TED l'any 1998,
a TED l'any 1998,
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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va aparèixer quan les empreses buscaven
formes de tenir més tràfic.
formes de tenir més tràfic.
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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Vam pensar que
la idea era genial,
la idea era genial,
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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però la veritat és que el timing va ser
més important.
més important.
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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Pel que fa als fracassos,
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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vam crear Z.com,
una empresa d'entreteniment online.
una empresa d'entreteniment online.
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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Teníem grans expectatives,
05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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un bon finançament,
un gran model de negoci,
un gran model de negoci,
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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fins i tot vam contractar un
gran talent de Hollywood.
gran talent de Hollywood.
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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Però al 99-2000 no hi havia
bona cobertura de banda ampla.
bona cobertura de banda ampla.
05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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Era molt difícil veure vídeos online
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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Calia instal•lar còdecs i
el procés era complicat.
el procés era complicat.
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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L'empresa va haver de
tancar l'any 2003.
tancar l'any 2003.
05:39
Just two years later,
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Dos anys més tard,
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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quan Adobe Flash va resoldre
el problema dels còdecs
el problema dels còdecs
05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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i la penetració de banda ampla va
superar el 50% a Amèrica,
superar el 50% a Amèrica,
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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YouTube va aparèixer
en el moment oportú.
en el moment oportú.
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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Gran idea,
però millor timing.
però millor timing.
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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De fet, YouTube no tenia model de
negoci quan va començar.
negoci quan va començar.
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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Ningú estava segur
que funcionés,
que funcionés,
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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però va aparèixer en
el moment perfecte.
el moment perfecte.
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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Per tant, en resum,
06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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l’execució és molt important.
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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La idea és molt important.
06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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Però el timing
pot ser més important.
pot ser més important.
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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I, la millor manera d’encertar
el moment oportú
el moment oportú
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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és estudiar si els consumidors
estan preparats
estan preparats
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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per a rebre
el que vols oferir.
el que vols oferir.
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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Cal ser molt
honest amb això,
honest amb això,
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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i no intentar
negar els resultats,
negar els resultats,
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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perquè si estimes el que crees,
sempre vols continuar.
sempre vols continuar.
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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Però s'ha de ser molt honest
amb el timing.
amb el timing.
Com ja he dit,
les empreses emergents
les empreses emergents
06:23
As I said earlier,
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06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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poden convertir el
món en un lloc millor.
món en un lloc millor.
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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Espero que alguns d'aquests
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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descobriments puguin
ajudar-vos a tenir èxit,
ajudar-vos a tenir èxit,
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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i a crear coses genials que d'una
altra manera
altra manera
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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potser no hauríeu creat.
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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Moltes gràcies,
sou un gran públic.
sou un gran públic.
06:37
(Applause)
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(Aplaudiments)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com