TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
Bill Gross: Satu alasan terbesar mengapa startup meraih sukses
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Bill Gross telah mendirikan banyak startup dan membantu kelahiran banyak perusahaan startup -- dan ia ingin tahu mengapa sebagian berhasil sementara yang lain gagal. Lantas ia mengumpulkan data dari ratusan perusahaan, baik miliknya maupun milik orang lain, dan memberi peringkat masing-masing perusahaan tersebut berdasarkan lima faktor utama. Ia menemukan satu faktor yang paling menonjol -- yang bahkan mengejutkan dirinya sendiri.
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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Saya sangat senang berbagi dengan Anda
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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beberapa temuan yang sangat mengejutkan
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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tentang hal utama yang mendorong
suksesnya perusahaan,
suksesnya perusahaan,
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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faktor yang paling menentukan
kesuksesan perusahaan startup.
kesuksesan perusahaan startup.
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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Saya percaya organisasi startup
00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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adalah salah satu cara terbaik
untuk menciptakan dunia yang lebih baik.
untuk menciptakan dunia yang lebih baik.
Bila Anda memberi insentif ekuitas
yang tepat pada sekelompok orang
yang tepat pada sekelompok orang
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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dan mengatur mereka dalam startup,
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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Anda dapat membuka potensi manusia
yang dulunya tidak mungkin.
yang dulunya tidak mungkin.
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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Anda mendorong mereka
meraih hal-hal yang tidak mungkin.
meraih hal-hal yang tidak mungkin.
Namun, bila organisasi startup
demikian hebatnya,
demikian hebatnya,
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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00:45
why do so many fail?
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mengapa banyak yang gagal?
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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Inilah yang ingin saya ketahui.
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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Saya ingin tahu apa yang paling berperan
00:51
for startup success.
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dalam kesuksesan startup.
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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Saya ingin mencari tahu secara sistematis,
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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menghindari insting dan salah persepsi
yang mungkin saya miliki
yang mungkin saya miliki
dari banyak perusahaan yang saya temui
beberapa tahun ini.
beberapa tahun ini.
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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01:00
I wanted to know this
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Saya ingin tahu
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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karena saya memulai usaha sejak
berumur 12 tahun
berumur 12 tahun
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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ketika saya berjualan permen di halte bus
saat SMP,
saat SMP,
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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dan di SMA,
saat saya membuat panel surya,
saat saya membuat panel surya,
saat kuliah,
saya membuat pengeras suara.
saya membuat pengeras suara.
01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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Saat lulus kuliah,
saya memulai usaha perangkat lunak.
saya memulai usaha perangkat lunak.
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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Dan 20 tahun yang lalu,
saya memulai Idealab,
saya memulai Idealab,
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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dan dalam 20 tahun terakhir,
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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kami membuat lebih dari 100 perusahaan,
01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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banyak yang sukses,
dan banyak yang gagal total.
dan banyak yang gagal total.
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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Kami belajar banyak dari kegagalan itu.
Jadi, saya coba mengamati faktor apa
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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yang paling berpengaruh pada
kegagalan dan kesuksesan perusahaan.
kegagalan dan kesuksesan perusahaan.
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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01:29
So I looked at these five.
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Saya melihat kelima hal ini.
01:31
First, the idea.
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Pertama, ide.
Dulu saya berpikir bahwa segalanya
tergantung pada ide.
tergantung pada ide.
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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Nama perusahaan saya "Idealab"
karena saya amat memuja
karena saya amat memuja
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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momen "aha!" saat kita pertama kali
mendapatkan ide.
mendapatkan ide.
01:39
But then over time,
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Tapi kemudian saya berpikir bahwa
01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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mungkin tim, eksekusi, kemampuan adaptasi,
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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lebih penting daripada ide.
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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Saya tak pernah terpikir akan mengutip
petinju Mike Tyson di panggung TED,
petinju Mike Tyson di panggung TED,
tapi ia pernah berkata,
01:50
but he once said,
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"Semua orang punya rencana, sampai
mereka ditinju di mukanya." (Tertawa)
mereka ditinju di mukanya." (Tertawa)
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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Dan saya pikir, itu benar sekali,
termasuk dalam bisnis.
termasuk dalam bisnis.
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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Keberhasilan tim sangat bergantung pada
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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kemampuan beradaptasi terhadap
pukulan ke muka yang dilayangkan klien.
pukulan ke muka yang dilayangkan klien.
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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Klien adalah realitas sebenarnya.
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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Dan karena itulah saya berpikir
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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bahwa mungkin yang paling penting
adalah tim.
adalah tim.
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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Lalu saya melihat model bisnis.
02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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Apakah perusahaan punya strategi yang
jelas untuk menarik klien?
jelas untuk menarik klien?
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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Saya mulai berpikir apakah model bisnis
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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yang paling berperan dalam kesuksesan.
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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Lalu saya melihat pendanaan.
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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Terkadang perusahaan mendapat banyak dana.
Mungkinkah itu yang terpenting?
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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Dan tentu saja, waktu.
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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Apa idenya muncul terlalu cepat dan
dunia belum siap menerima?
dunia belum siap menerima?
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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Apa terlalu cepat, Anda terlalu maju
dan perlu mengedukasi dunia?
dan perlu mengedukasi dunia?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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Apa waktunya tepat?
Atau terlambat, dan sudah
terlalu banyak kompetitor?
terlalu banyak kompetitor?
02:35
Is it just right?
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02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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Jadi saya memperhatikan kelima faktor ini
dengan seksama
dengan seksama
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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di berbagai perusahaan.
02:41
across many companies.
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Dan saya melihat seratus
perusahaan Idealab,
perusahaan Idealab,
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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dan seratus perusahaan non-Idealab
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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dan berupaya mendapat kesimpulan
yang ilmiah tentangnya.
yang ilmiah tentangnya.
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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Jadi, pertama, dari perusahaan Idealab,
02:51
the top five companies --
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lima perusahaan teratas --
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
semuanya meraih sukses milyaran dolar.
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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Dan lima perusahaan terbawah --
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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kami berharap banyak,
tapi mereka tidak sukses.
tapi mereka tidak sukses.
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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Jadi saya memberi peringkat
masing-masing perusahaan
masing-masing perusahaan
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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berdasarkan faktor-faktor tadi.
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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Lalu, bagi perusahaan non-Idealab,
saya mencari perusahaan yang sukses besar,
saya mencari perusahaan yang sukses besar,
03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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seperti Airbnb dan Instagram dan Uber dan
Youtube dan LinkedIn.
Youtube dan LinkedIn.
Dan beberapa yang gagal:
03:20
And some failures:
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03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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Flooz and Friendster.
03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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Perusahaan terbawah punya banyak dana,
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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beberapa bahkan punya bisnis model,
tapi tidak berhasil.
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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Saya coba melihat faktor apa
yang paling berpengaruh
yang paling berpengaruh
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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bagi kesuksesan dan kegagalan mereka,
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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dan hasilnya sangatlah mengejutkan.
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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Yang paling berpengaruh adalah waktu.
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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Waktu berperan sebesar 42 persen
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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dalam menentukan sukses dan kegagalan.
03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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Tim dan eksekusi adalah yang kedua,
03:46
and the idea,
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dan ide,
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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ide yang lain dari yang lain,
keunikan sebuah ide,
keunikan sebuah ide,
berada di peringkat ketiga.
03:50
that actually came in third.
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Nah, ini bukan formula absolut,
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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bukan berarti ide tidaklah penting,
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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tapi yang paling mengejutkan ialah
bahwa ide bukanlah yang paling penting.
bahwa ide bukanlah yang paling penting.
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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Terkadang yang lebih penting adalah
ketepatan waktu.
ketepatan waktu.
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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Dua yang terakhir, model bisnis dan dana,
masuk akal bagi saya.
masuk akal bagi saya.
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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Model bisnis mungkin peringkatnya
lebih rendah karena
lebih rendah karena
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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Anda bisa mulai tanpa model bisnis
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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dan menambahkannya ketika
kebutuhannya muncul.
kebutuhannya muncul.
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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Dan pendanaan juga sama,
kalau di awal dana Anda kurang,
namun Anda berkembang baik,
namun Anda berkembang baik,
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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terutama di masa kini,
menggalang dana tidak begitu sulit.
04:18
especially in today's age,
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04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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Saya akan memberikan beberapa
contoh spesifik untuk Anda.
contoh spesifik untuk Anda.
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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Mari lihat keberhasilan Airbnb
yang semua orang tahu.
yang semua orang tahu.
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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Perusahaan itu dulu terkenal tidak
ditengok banyak investor handal
ditengok banyak investor handal
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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karena orang berpikir,
04:30
because people thought,
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"Takkan ada yang mau menyewakan rumahnya
pada orang tak dikenal."
pada orang tak dikenal."
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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Tentu saja, mereka terbukti salah.
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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Tapi, salah satu hal yang
mendukung kesuksesannya,
mendukung kesuksesannya,
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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disamping model bisnis yang baik,
ide dan eksekusi yang baik,
ide dan eksekusi yang baik,
04:41
is the timing.
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adalah waktu.
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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Perusahaan ini muncul di puncak resesi
saat orang memerlukan uang tambahan
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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yang mungkin membantu mengatasi
keberatan mereka
menyewakan rumahnya pada orang asing.
menyewakan rumahnya pada orang asing.
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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Sama seperti Uber.
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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Ketika Uber keluar,
04:52
Uber came out,
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perusahaannya hebat,
model bisnisnya hebat,
model bisnisnya hebat,
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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eksekusinya juga.
04:56
great execution, too.
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Tapi waktunya sangat sempurna
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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untuk menarik pengemudi bergabung.
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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Pengemudi yang butuh uang tambahan,
amat, sangat penting.
amat, sangat penting.
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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Kisah sukses lainnya, Citisearch,
muncul saat orang butuh situs web.
muncul saat orang butuh situs web.
GoTo.com, yang kami umumkan di TED
pada 1998,
pada 1998,
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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muncul di saat perusahaan mencari cara
efektif mengatasi lalu lintas.
efektif mengatasi lalu lintas.
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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Kami pikir ini ide brilian,
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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namun sebenarnya, ketepatan waktu
berperan lebih penting.
berperan lebih penting.
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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Lalu beberapa kegagalan kami.
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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Kami memulai Z.com,
sebuah perusahaan hiburan online.
sebuah perusahaan hiburan online.
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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Kami bersemangat akan hal ini --
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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dananya cukup, bisnis modelnya hebat,
05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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kami bahkan punya kontrak dengan
bintang Hollywood.
bintang Hollywood.
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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Namun penetrasi broadband terlalu rendah
pada 1999-2000.
pada 1999-2000.
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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Sangat sulit menonton video online
ketika itu,
ketika itu,
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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Anda butuh codecs dan melakukan
banyak hal untuk menonton,
banyak hal untuk menonton,
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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dan perusahaan ini akhirnya tutup
tahun 2003.
tahun 2003.
05:39
Just two years later,
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Hanya dua tahun kemudian,
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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ketika masalah codec terpecahkan oleh
Adobe Flash
Adobe Flash
05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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dan ketika penetrasi broadband mencapai
50% di Amerika,
50% di Amerika,
YouTube hadir di saat yang tepat.
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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Idenya brilian,
tapi waktunya sangat tepat.
tapi waktunya sangat tepat.
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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Bahkan, YouTube tidak punya model bisnis
saat dimulai.
saat dimulai.
YouTube bahkan tidak yakin akan berhasil.
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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Tapi saat kemunculannya,
sangat sangat tepat.
sangat sangat tepat.
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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Jadi, dapat saya simpulkan,
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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eksekusi sangat penting.
Ide juga sangat berpengaruh.
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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Tapi, mungkin waktu bahkan
lebih penting lagi.
lebih penting lagi.
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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Dan cara terbaik untuk
memilih waktu yang tepat
memilih waktu yang tepat
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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adalah dengan melihat apakah
konsumen benar-benar siap
konsumen benar-benar siap
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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untuk produk Anda.
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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Dan Anda harus benar-benar jujur
dan tidak menyangkal hasil analisa Anda
dan tidak menyangkal hasil analisa Anda
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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karena bila kita menyukai sesuatu,
kita ingin ia berhasil
kita ingin ia berhasil
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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Tapi Anda harus benar-benar jujur
tentang ketepatan waktunya.
tentang ketepatan waktunya.
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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Seperti saya sampaikan,
06:23
As I said earlier,
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06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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Menurut saya startup bisa mengubah
dunia dan membuatnya jadi lebih baik.
dunia dan membuatnya jadi lebih baik.
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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Saya harap informasi ini
dapat membantu Anda
meraih rasio kesuksesan yang lebih tinggi,
meraih rasio kesuksesan yang lebih tinggi,
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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dan karenanya, membuat sesuatu yang hebat
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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hadir di dunia.
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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Terima kasih sudah mendengarkan.
(Tepuk tangan)
06:37
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com