ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.

Why you should listen

Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks. 

Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed

比爾·格羅斯: 創業成功最關鍵的因素

Filmed:
7,578,583 views

比爾·格羅斯創立很多公司,他很好奇,為什麼有的公司成功,有的失敗。所以他收集數百家公司的資料,包括他自己創立的公司以及別人創立的公司,他針對五個因素排名,他發現有一個因素特別顯著,這讓他感到驚訝。
- Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
I'm really excited興奮 to share分享 with you
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我非常高興與大家分享
00:14
some findings發現 that really surprise me
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令我非常驚訝的研究結果
00:17
about what makes品牌 companies公司
succeed成功 the most,
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是有關創業成功的關鍵因素
00:20
what factors因素 actually其實 matter the most
for startup啟動 success成功.
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實際影響創業成功與否
最關鍵的因素是什麼
00:25
I believe that the startup啟動 organization組織
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我認為創業
00:27
is one of the greatest最大 forms形式
to make the world世界 a better place地點.
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是使得世界變得更加美好的方式之一
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity公平 incentives獎勵
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如果你帶領一組團隊
給他們適當的激勵獎金
00:34
and organize組織 them in a startup啟動,
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開創一個事業
00:36
you can unlock開鎖 human人的 potential潛在
in a way never before possible可能.
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你可以用前所未有的方式
開啟人類的潛能
00:40
You get them to achieve實現
unbelievable難以置信的 things.
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你讓團隊達到令人難以置信的成功
00:43
But if the startup啟動
organization組織 is so great,
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但是既然創業是如此美好
00:45
why do so many許多 fail失敗?
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為什麼有這麼多人失敗?
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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這是我想要找出原因的地方
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually其實 matters事項 most
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我想要找出導致創業成功
00:51
for startup啟動 success成功.
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最關鍵的因素
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic系統的 about it,
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而且我試著系統化地找出關鍵因素
00:54
avoid避免 some of my instincts本能
and maybe misperceptions誤解 I have
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以避免我的直覺
和我的認知錯誤影響結果
00:57
from so many許多 companies公司
I've seen看到 over the years年份.
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我觀察多年來我見過的許多公司
01:00
I wanted to know this
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想要了解創業成功的關鍵因素
01:01
because I've been starting開始 businesses企業
since以來 I was 12 years年份 old
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因為我從十二歲就開始做生意
01:04
when I sold出售 candy糖果 at the bus總線 stop
in junior初級 high school學校,
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就讀初中時,我在公車站賣糖果
01:07
to high school學校, when I made製作
solar太陽能 energy能源 devices設備,
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高中時,我製作太陽能的裝置
01:09
to college學院, when I made製作 loudspeakers擴音器.
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大學時,我製作擴音器
01:11
And when I graduated畢業 from college學院,
I started開始 software軟件 companies公司.
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大學畢業後,我成立軟體公司
01:14
And 20 years年份 ago,
I started開始 Idealab創意實驗室,
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20 年前,我成立一家公司叫
「創意實驗室」(Idealab)
01:16
and in the last 20 years年份,
we started開始 more than 100 companies公司,
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在這 20 年當中,我創辦超過 100 家公司
01:19
many許多 successes成功, and many許多 big failures故障.
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很多是成功的企業,但也有很失敗的
01:21
We learned學到了 a lot from those failures故障.
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我們從失敗中學到許多寶貴經驗
01:23
So I tried試著 to look across橫過 what factors因素
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所以我試著找出是什麼因素
01:26
accounted the most for company公司
success成功 and failure失敗.
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導致一家公司成功或失敗
01:29
So I looked看著 at these five.
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我找出五個因素
01:31
First, the idea理念.
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第一個因素是,創意
01:32
I used to think that
the idea理念 was everything.
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我以前認為有創新的點子最重要
01:34
I named命名 my company公司 Idealab創意實驗室
for how much I worship崇拜
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我把我的公司名為「創意實驗室」
就知道我多麼看重這個因素
01:36
the "aha!" moment時刻 when you first
come up with the idea理念.
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「啊!有了!」的當下
有一個想法從腦中浮現
01:39
But then over time,
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但隨著時間的過去
01:40
I came來了 to think that maybe the team球隊,
the execution執行, adaptability適應性,
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我開始想或許團隊成員、執行力及適應力
01:43
that mattered要緊 even more than the idea理念.
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甚至比創意還重要
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting引用
boxer拳擊手 Mike麥克風 Tyson泰森 on the TEDTED stage階段,
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我從沒想過會在 TED 講台上
引用拳擊手麥克・泰森的話
01:50
but he once一旦 said,
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但他曾經說過
01:52
"Everybody每個人 has a plan計劃, until直到 they get
punched in the face面對." (Laughter笑聲)
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「每個人都有自己的計畫,
直到他們臉上挨了一拳」(笑聲)
01:56
And I think that's so true真正
about business商業 as well.
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這句話可以完全適用在商場上
01:59
So much about a team's球隊的 execution執行
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團隊有是否有很強的執行力
02:02
is its ability能力 to adapt適應 to getting得到 punched
in the face面對 by the customer顧客.
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完全在於他們能否能適應
被客戶拳頭打在臉上的能力
02:05
The customer顧客 is the true真正 reality現實.
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客戶的反應才是真正的現實
02:07
And that's why I came來了 to think
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這就是為何我開始思考
02:09
that the team球隊 maybe
was the most important重要 thing.
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或許團隊才是最重要的因素
02:12
Then I started開始 looking
at the business商業 model模型.
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然後我又開始研究「商業模式」
02:14
Does the company公司 have a very clear明確 path路徑
generating發電 customer顧客 revenues收入?
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一個企業有明確的產生營收的方法嗎?
02:17
That started開始 rising升起 to the top最佳
in my thinking思維
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因此我開始思考
02:19
about maybe what mattered要緊
most for success成功.
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或許這才是成功最關鍵的因素
02:21
Then I looked看著 at the funding資金.
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然後,我也考慮「募資」這個因素
02:23
Sometimes有時 companies公司 received收到
intense激烈 amounts of funding資金.
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有時後,企業籌得一大筆資金
02:25
Maybe that's the most important重要 thing?
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或許這才是最重要因素?
02:27
And then of course課程,
the timing定時.
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再來當然是「時機」
02:29
Is the idea理念 way too early and
the world's世界 not ready準備 for it?
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你腦海中的那個想法
會不會現在還不適用呢?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance提前
and you have to educate教育 the world世界?
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會不會現在開始還太早?
你必須教育消費者?
02:35
Is it just right?
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時機點剛剛好?
02:36
Or is it too late晚了, and there's
already已經 too many許多 competitors競爭對手?
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或者太晚,市場上早已有大批的競爭者?
02:39
So I tried試著 to look very carefully小心
at these five factors因素
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我試著仔細地以這五個因素
02:41
across橫過 many許多 companies公司.
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用來研究大量的公司
02:42
And I looked看著 across橫過 all 100
Idealab創意實驗室 companies公司,
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包括我創立的一百家公司
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab非創意實驗室 companies公司
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和一百家非我創立的公司
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific科學 about it.
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試著以科學方法找出關鍵的因素
02:49
So first, on these Idealab創意實驗室 companies公司,
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首先,在我成立的公司
02:51
the top最佳 five companies公司 --
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其中最成功的五家公司
02:53
Citysearch城市搜索, CarsDirectCarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZeroNetZero公司, Tickets門票.comCOM --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
Net Zero, Tickets.com
02:57
those all became成為 billion-dollar十億美元 successes成功.
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這五家公司非常賺錢
02:59
And the five companies公司 on the bottom底部 --
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而五家最差的公司,分別是
03:01
Z.comCOM, Insider內幕 Pages網頁, MyLife我的生活,
Desktop桌面 Factory, PeoplelinkPeoplelink --
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Z.com, Insider Page, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, poeplelink,
03:03
we all had high hopes希望 for,
but didn't succeed成功.
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我們對這些公司抱有很高的期望
但仍然沒有成功
03:06
So I tried試著 to rank across橫過 all
of those attributes屬性
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所以試著找出這些因素的排名
03:09
how I felt those companies公司 scored進球
on each of those dimensions尺寸.
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這些公司如何在每一個因素中取得分數
03:13
And then for non-Idealab非創意實驗室 companies公司,
I looked看著 at wild野生 successes成功,
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在非我建立的公司名單中
我找了一些極度成功的例子
03:16
like Airbnb製作的Airbnb and InstagramInstagram的 and Uber尤伯杯
and Youtube的Youtube and LinkedInLinkedIn.
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Airbnb, Instagram, Uber
YouTube 和 Linkedin.
03:20
And some failures故障:
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也找了一些失敗的公司
03:21
WebvanWebvan的, KozmoKozmo, Pets寵物.comCOM
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像是 Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
03:23
FloozFlooz and FriendsterFriendster的.
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Flooz 和 Friendster
03:24
The bottom底部 companies公司 had intense激烈 funding資金,
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這些不成功的公司,籌得大筆資金
03:26
they even had business商業 models楷模
in some cases,
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有的甚至有商業模式
03:28
but they didn't succeed成功.
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但是沒能成功
03:29
I tried試著 to look at what factors因素
actually其實 accounted the most
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我試著研究,什麼因素
對這些公司的成功和失敗
03:32
for success成功 and failure失敗 across橫過
all of these companies公司,
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佔有最高的比率
03:35
and the results結果 really surprised詫異 me.
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結果讓我很訝異
03:37
The number one thing was timing定時.
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最重要的因素是「時機」
03:39
Timing定時 accounted for 42 percent百分
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時機佔 42%
03:42
of the difference區別
between之間 success成功 and failure失敗.
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這個比率是成功與失敗公司之間的差異
03:44
Team球隊 and execution執行 came來了 in second第二,
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「團隊」和「執行力」排第二名
03:46
and the idea理念,
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然後是「創意」
03:47
the differentiability微分 of the idea理念,
the uniqueness獨特性 of the idea理念,
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創意的可辨性,創意的獨特性
03:50
that actually其實 came來了 in third第三.
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實際上排第三名
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely絕對 definitive明確,
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這個研究並不是絶對完整
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea理念 isn't important重要,
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並不是說「創意」不重要
03:56
but it very much surprised詫異 me that
the idea理念 wasn't the most important重要 thing.
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但令我訝異的是「創意」不是最重要的
03:59
Sometimes有時 it mattered要緊 more when
it was actually其實 timed時控.
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有時比較重要的,其實是「時機」
04:02
The last two, business商業 model模型 and funding資金,
made製作 sense to me actually其實.
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最後二個是「商業模式」和「募資」
這是可以理解的
04:05
I think business商業 model模型
makes品牌 sense to be that low
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我想「商業模式」
獲得較低的排名是有道理的
04:08
because you can start開始 out
without a business商業 model模型
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因為沒有商業模式,也可以創業
04:10
and add one later後來 if your customers顧客
are demanding嚴格 what you're creating創建.
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你的客戶有需求時,再將商業模式加入
04:13
And funding資金, I think as well,
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募資也是一樣道理
04:15
if you're underfunded資金不足 at first
but you're gaining取得 traction牽引,
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即使剛開始沒有資金
但公司越來越受歡迎
04:18
especially特別 in today's今天的 age年齡,
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尤其是現在這時代
04:19
it's very, very easy簡單 to get
intense激烈 funding資金.
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你就很容易籌得一大筆資金
04:21
So now let me give you some specific具體
examples例子 about each of these.
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讓我舉幾一些具體的例子
04:24
So take a wild野生 success成功 like Airbnb製作的Airbnb
that everybody每個人 knows知道 about.
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例如,大家熟知的、高度成功的 Airbnb
04:27
Well, that company公司 was famously著名
passed通過 on by many許多 smart聰明 investors投資者
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這間公司被許多聰明的投資者忽略
04:30
because people thought,
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因為大家認為
04:31
"No one's那些 going to rent出租 out a space空間
in their home to a stranger陌生人."
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「沒有人要將自家的房間出租給陌生人」
04:34
Of course課程, people proved證實 that wrong錯誤.
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但事實證明這個想法是錯的
04:36
But one of the reasons原因 it succeeded成功,
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它成功的因素之一
04:38
aside在旁邊 from a good business商業 model模型,
a good idea理念, great execution執行,
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除了好的商業模式
好創意及優秀的執行力外
04:41
is the timing定時.
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那就是「時機」
04:42
That company公司 came來了 out
right during the height高度 of the recession不景氣
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公司創立之時
剛好是在經濟衰退的高點
04:45
when people really needed需要 extra額外 money,
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人們需要額外的收入
04:47
and that maybe helped幫助 people overcome克服
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這或許可以幫助人們克服
04:48
their objection異議 to renting租房 out
their own擁有 home to a stranger陌生人.
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不喜歡將自己的房間出租給陌生人心態
04:51
Same相同 thing with Uber尤伯杯.
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優步 (Uber) 也是相同的情況
04:52
Uber尤伯杯 came來了 out,
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優步成立之時
04:53
incredible難以置信 company公司,
incredible難以置信 business商業 model模型,
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是個相當不錯的公司
具有優異的商業模式
04:56
great execution執行, too.
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也有很強的執行力
04:57
But the timing定時 was so perfect完善
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成立的時間點是如此完美
04:58
for their need to get drivers司機
into the system系統.
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他們需要將計程車司機納入公司系統
05:00
Drivers驅動程序 were looking for extra額外 money;
it was very, very important重要.
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而司機也在尋找額外的收入
這一點相當重要
05:03
Some of our early successes成功, Citysearch城市搜索,
came來了 out when people needed需要 web捲筒紙 pages網頁.
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「Citysearch」是我們早期成功的公司,
因應當時人們有網頁的需求而成立
05:07
GoTo.comCOM, which哪一個 we announced公佈
actually其實 at TEDTED in 1998,
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我們在 1998 年在 TED 發表 GoTo.com
05:10
was when companies公司 were looking for
cost-effective經濟有效 ways方法 to get traffic交通.
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正逢當時企業在尋找符合成本效益
的方法,取得網路流量
05:13
We thought the idea理念 was so great,
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我們認為想這個點子真好
05:15
but actually其實, the timing定時 was probably大概
maybe more important重要.
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但事實上,時機或許更重要
05:17
And then some of our failures故障.
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我們也有一些失敗公司的例子
05:19
We started開始 a company公司 called Z.comCOM,
it was an online線上 entertainment娛樂 company公司.
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我們成立一家公司稱為 Z.com
是一家線上娛樂公司
05:22
We were so excited興奮 about it --
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我們對這家公司充滿期望
05:24
we raised上調 enough足夠 money,
we had a great business商業 model模型,
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我們籌措足夠的資金
具備很好的商業模式
05:26
we even signed incredibly令人難以置信 great
Hollywood好萊塢 talent天賦 to join加入 the company公司.
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甚至與好萊塢極的優秀人才簽約
加入這個公司
05:29
But broadband寬帶 penetration滲透
was too low in 1999-2000.
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但在 1999-2000 年
寬頻的普及率太低
05:32
It was too hard to watch
video視頻 content內容 online線上,
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人們要在網路觀看影片很困難
05:34
you had to put codecs編解碼器 in your browser瀏覽器
and do all this stuff東東,
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我們必須在用戶端的瀏覽器置入轉碼器
協助用戶完成這個工作
05:37
and the company公司 eventually終於
went out of business商業 in 2003.
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這公司最後在 2003 年結束營業
05:39
Just two years年份 later後來,
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僅儘二年之後
05:41
when the codec編解碼器 problem問題
was solved解決了 by Adobe土磚 Flash
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Adobe Flash 解決了轉碼的問題
05:43
and when broadband寬帶 penetration滲透
crossed越過 50 percent百分 in America美國,
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並且,美國的寬頻普及率超過百分之五十
05:47
YouTubeYouTube的 was perfectly完美 timed時控.
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YouTube 就在這樣一個
完美的時間點成立了
05:49
Great idea理念, but unbelievable難以置信的 timing定時.
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好的創意,配上絕佳的時機
05:51
In fact事實, YouTubeYouTube的 didn't even have
a business商業 model模型 when it first started開始.
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事實上,YouTube 在成立之初
並沒有商業模式
05:54
It wasn't even certain某些 that
that would work out.
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甚至不確定他們會成功
05:57
But that was beautifully精美,
beautifully精美 timed時控.
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但它就成功在於遇上如此完美的時間點
05:59
So what I would say, in summary概要,
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總之,我要表達的是
06:00
is execution執行 definitely無疑 matters事項 a lot.
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「執行力」當然重要
06:03
The idea理念 matters事項 a lot.
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「創意」也很重要
06:04
But timing定時 might威力 matter even more.
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但「時機」更加重要
06:06
And the best最好 way to really assess評估 timing定時
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評估時機最好的方式
06:08
is to really look at whether是否
consumers消費者 are really ready準備
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是觀察消費者是否已經準備好
06:11
for what you have to offer提供 them.
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接受你要提供給他們的產品或服務
06:12
And to be really, really honest誠實 about it,
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你要非常、非常誠實地考慮這個問題
06:14
not be in denial否認 about
any results結果 that you see,
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不要否認你所看到的結果
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward前鋒,
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因為如果有你喜歡的事業
你要往前推動
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest誠實
about that factor因子 on timing定時.
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你就必須非常誠實地考慮
「時機」這個因素
06:23
As I said earlier,
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如我稍早所說的
06:24
I think startups初創公司 can change更改 the world世界
and make the world世界 a better place地點.
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創業可以改變這個世界
讓世界變得更美好
06:27
I hope希望 some of these insights見解
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我希望今天的這些觀察
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher更高 success成功 ratio,
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或許可以幫助你提升創業成功率
06:31
and thus從而 make something great
come to the world世界
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讓那些原本可能不會發生的創意點子
06:33
that wouldn't不會 have happened發生 otherwise除此以外.
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在現實世界裡開花結果
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience聽眾.
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謝謝大家,你們是很棒的聽眾
06:37
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Yamei Huang
Reviewed by Iwen Ho

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.

Why you should listen

Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks. 

Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com