TED@Unilever
Lord Nicholas Stern: The state of the climate — and what we might do about it
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
849,516 views
How can we begin to address the global, insidious problem of climate change — a problem that's too big for any one country to solve? Economist Nicholas Stern lays out a plan, presented to the UN's Climate Summit in 2014, showing how the world's countries can work together on climate. It's a big vision for cooperation, with a payoff that goes far beyond averting disaster. He asks: How can we use this crisis to spur better lives for all?
Nicholas Stern - Climate economist
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We are at a remarkable moment in time.
0
273
4025
00:16
We face over the next two decades
1
4298
2936
00:19
two fundamental transformations
2
7234
2066
00:21
that will determine whether the next 100 years
3
9300
3042
00:24
is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
4
12342
4185
00:28
Let me illustrate with an example.
5
16527
2722
00:31
I first visited Beijing 25 years ago
6
19249
3274
00:34
to teach at the People's University of China.
7
22523
3026
00:37
China was getting serious about market economics
8
25549
2936
00:40
and about university education,
9
28485
2339
00:42
so they decided to call in the foreign experts.
10
30824
4491
00:47
Like most other people,
11
35315
1605
00:48
I moved around Beijing by bicycle.
12
36920
2816
00:51
Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,
13
39736
2194
00:53
it was a safe and easy way to get around.
14
41930
3307
00:57
Cycling in Beijing now
15
45237
1364
00:58
is a completely different prospect.
16
46601
2821
01:01
The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.
17
49422
3143
01:04
The air is dangerously polluted
18
52565
1799
01:06
from the burning of coal and diesel.
19
54364
3612
01:09
When I was there last in the spring,
20
57976
2138
01:12
there was an advisory for people of my age —
21
60114
2778
01:14
over 65 —
22
62892
2430
01:17
to stay indoors and not move much.
23
65322
2869
01:20
How did this come about?
24
68191
1934
01:22
It came from the way in which
25
70125
2420
01:24
Beijing has grown as a city.
26
72545
2265
01:26
It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,
27
74810
2460
01:29
from 10 million to 20 million.
28
77270
2176
01:31
It's become a sprawling urban area
29
79446
1693
01:33
dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,
30
81139
4359
01:37
particularly coal.
31
85498
1823
01:39
China burns half the world's coal each year,
32
87321
4275
01:43
and that's why, it is a key reason why,
33
91596
3914
01:47
it is the world's largest emitter
34
95510
2025
01:49
of greenhouse gases.
35
97535
2914
01:52
At the same time, we have to recognize
36
100449
2114
01:54
that in that period China has grown remarkably.
37
102563
3184
01:57
It has become the world's second largest economy.
38
105747
2441
02:00
Hundreds of millions of people
39
108188
1469
02:01
have been lifted out of poverty.
40
109657
2165
02:03
That's really important.
41
111822
2081
02:05
But at the same time, the people of China
42
113903
2317
02:08
are asking the question:
43
116220
1600
02:09
What's the value of this growth
44
117820
1580
02:11
if our cities are unlivable?
45
119400
2125
02:13
They've analyzed, diagnosed
46
121525
2312
02:15
that this is an unsustainable path of growth
47
123837
3340
02:19
and development.
48
127177
2126
02:21
China's planning to scale back coal.
49
129303
2329
02:23
It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
50
131632
5861
02:29
Now, the growth of China
51
137493
1833
02:31
is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,
52
139326
3724
02:35
in the structure of the world economy.
53
143050
2767
02:37
Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,
54
145817
2722
02:40
the poorer countries of the world,
55
148539
1890
02:42
were, notwithstanding being
the vast majority of the people,
the vast majority of the people,
56
150429
3926
02:46
they accounted for only about a third
57
154355
1823
02:48
of the world's output.
58
156178
1992
02:50
Now it's more than half;
59
158170
1744
02:51
25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds
60
159914
2971
02:54
from the countries that we saw 25 years ago
61
162885
3105
02:57
as developing.
62
165990
1276
02:59
That's a remarkable change.
63
167266
1598
03:00
It means that most countries around the world,
64
168864
2402
03:03
rich or poor, are going to be facing
65
171266
2059
03:05
the two fundamental transformations
66
173325
1980
03:07
that I want to talk about and highlight.
67
175305
3185
03:10
Now, the first of these transformations
68
178490
2013
03:12
is the basic structural change
69
180503
2607
03:15
of the economies and societies
70
183110
1740
03:16
that I've already begun to illustrate
71
184850
2030
03:18
through the description of Beijing.
72
186880
3510
03:22
Fifty percent now in urban areas.
73
190390
2959
03:25
That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.
74
193349
3611
03:28
Over the next two decades, we'll see
75
196960
2261
03:31
the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,
76
199221
2913
03:34
and the growth in the economy and in the population
77
202134
3974
03:38
is putting increasing pressure on our land,
78
206108
2982
03:41
on our water and on our forests.
79
209090
3866
03:44
This is profound structural change.
80
212956
3285
03:48
If we manage it in a negligent
81
216241
1575
03:49
or a shortsighted way,
82
217816
2619
03:52
we will create waste, pollution, congestion,
83
220435
3866
03:56
destruction of land and forests.
84
224301
3550
03:59
If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated
85
227851
2328
04:02
with my numbers — cities, energy, land —
86
230179
3723
04:05
if we manage all that badly,
87
233902
1879
04:07
then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods
88
235781
2081
04:09
of the people around the world
89
237862
1811
04:11
would be poor and damaged.
90
239673
2993
04:14
And more than that,
91
242666
1822
04:16
the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,
92
244488
3308
04:19
with immense risks to our climate.
93
247796
3881
04:23
Concentrations of greenhouse gases
94
251677
2047
04:25
in the atmosphere are already
95
253724
2918
04:28
higher than they've been for millions of years.
96
256642
3634
04:32
If we go on increasing those concentrations,
97
260276
3638
04:35
we risk temperatures over the next century or so
98
263914
3374
04:39
that we have not seen on this planet
99
267288
1617
04:40
for tens of millions of years.
100
268905
3205
04:44
We've been around as Homo sapiens —
101
272110
2126
04:46
that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —
102
274236
3171
04:49
for perhaps a quarter of a million
years, a quarter of a million.
years, a quarter of a million.
103
277407
2803
04:52
We risk temperatures we haven't seen
104
280210
1231
04:53
for tens of millions of years over a century.
105
281441
4739
04:58
That would transform the relationship
106
286180
2070
05:00
between human beings and the planet.
107
288250
4229
05:04
It would lead to changing deserts,
108
292479
4651
05:09
changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,
109
297130
3190
05:12
changing sea levels,
110
300320
1238
05:13
hundreds of millions of people,
111
301558
2643
05:16
perhaps billions of people who would have to move,
112
304201
3229
05:19
and if we've learned anything from history,
113
307430
1923
05:21
that means severe and extended conflict.
114
309353
2312
05:23
And we couldn't just turn it off.
115
311665
1878
05:25
You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.
116
313543
2430
05:27
You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.
117
315973
2227
05:30
You're in there. You're stuck.
118
318200
1715
05:31
Those are the stakes we're playing for,
119
319915
1676
05:33
and that's why we have to make
this second transformation,
this second transformation,
120
321591
2722
05:36
the climate transformation,
121
324313
1640
05:37
and move to a low-carbon economy.
122
325953
2383
05:40
Now, the first of these transformations
123
328336
2378
05:42
is going to happen anyway.
124
330714
1081
05:43
We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,
125
331795
1849
05:45
the economic, or structural, transformation.
126
333644
2818
05:48
But the second of the transformations,
127
336462
1890
05:50
the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.
128
338352
4114
05:54
Those two transformations face us
129
342466
2219
05:56
in the next two decades.
130
344685
2173
05:58
The next two decades are decisive
131
346858
3213
06:02
for what we have to do.
132
350071
2715
06:04
Now, the more I've thought about this,
133
352786
1519
06:06
the two transformations coming together,
134
354305
2104
06:08
the more I've come to realize
135
356409
1547
06:09
that this is an enormous opportunity.
136
357956
2952
06:12
It's an opportunity which we can use
137
360908
2227
06:15
or it's an opportunity which we can lose.
138
363135
3397
06:18
And let me explain through those three key areas
139
366532
2723
06:21
that I've identified: cities, energy and land.
140
369255
2710
06:23
And let me start with cities.
141
371965
2054
06:26
I've already described the problems of Beijing:
142
374019
4033
06:30
pollution, congestion, waste and so on.
143
378052
2846
06:32
Surely we recognize that in many of our cities
144
380898
3690
06:36
around the world.
145
384588
1259
06:37
Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,
146
385847
2925
06:40
you have to think ahead.
147
388772
3064
06:43
The cities that are going to be built —
148
391836
1414
06:45
and there are many, and many big ones —
149
393250
2156
06:47
we have to think of how to design them
150
395406
1464
06:48
in a compact way
151
396870
1351
06:50
so we can save travel time
and we can save energy.
and we can save energy.
152
398221
3443
06:53
The cities that already are
there, well established,
there, well established,
153
401664
3915
06:57
we have to think about renewal
and investment in them
and investment in them
154
405579
3071
07:00
so that we can connect ourselves much better
155
408650
2778
07:03
within those cities, and make it easier,
156
411428
2392
07:05
encourage more people, to live closer to the center.
157
413820
3591
07:09
We've got examples building around the world
158
417411
2410
07:11
of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.
159
419821
2292
07:14
The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia
160
422113
4018
07:18
is a very important case of how to move around
161
426131
2632
07:20
safely and quickly in a non-polluting way
162
428763
2570
07:23
in a city: very frequent buses,
163
431333
3195
07:26
strongly protected routes, the same service, really,
164
434528
2937
07:29
as an underground railway system,
165
437465
2091
07:31
but much, much cheaper
166
439556
1811
07:33
and can be done much more quickly,
167
441367
2408
07:35
a brilliant idea in many more cities
168
443775
1895
07:37
around the world that's developing.
169
445670
2036
07:39
Now, some things in cities do take time.
170
447706
1901
07:41
Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.
171
449607
3053
07:44
Take my hometown, London.
172
452660
2104
07:46
In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people
173
454764
5288
07:52
and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.
174
460052
2694
07:54
And it happened all the time.
175
462746
1350
07:56
For those of you live outside London in the U.K.
176
464096
2502
07:58
will remember it used to be called The Smoke.
177
466598
2193
08:00
That's the way London was.
178
468791
1676
08:02
By regulating coal, within a few years
179
470467
2082
08:04
the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.
180
472549
3088
08:07
I remember the smogs well.
181
475637
1555
08:09
When the visibility dropped to [less] than
182
477192
2723
08:11
a few meters,
183
479915
1993
08:13
they stopped the buses and I had to walk.
184
481908
1856
08:15
This was the 1950s.
185
483764
2058
08:17
I had to walk home three miles from school.
186
485822
3898
08:21
Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.
187
489720
3569
08:25
But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.
188
493289
2678
08:27
Good decisions can bring good results,
189
495967
3169
08:31
striking results, quickly.
190
499136
2365
08:33
We've seen more: In London, we've
introduced the congestion charge,
introduced the congestion charge,
191
501501
2993
08:36
actually quite quickly and effectively,
192
504494
2706
08:39
and we've seen great improvements
193
507200
1620
08:40
in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.
194
508820
3962
08:44
You can see that the two
transformations I've described,
transformations I've described,
195
512782
3120
08:47
the structural and the climate,
196
515902
1956
08:49
come very much together.
197
517858
2632
08:52
But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,
198
520490
2933
08:55
and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,
199
523423
2533
08:57
we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,
200
525956
4536
09:02
more attractive cities, more productive cities,
201
530492
2657
09:05
and stronger community in those cities —
202
533149
2767
09:07
public transport, recycling, reusing,
203
535916
2248
09:10
all sorts of things that bring communities together.
204
538164
4049
09:14
We can do that, but we have to think,
205
542213
1857
09:16
we have to invest, we have to plan.
206
544070
2280
09:18
Let me turn to energy.
207
546350
2171
09:20
Now, energy over the last 25 years
208
548521
3222
09:23
has increased by about 50 percent.
209
551743
2236
09:25
Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.
210
553979
2617
09:28
Over the next 20 years,
211
556596
1658
09:30
perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.
212
558254
3776
09:34
We have to invest strongly in energy,
213
562030
2534
09:36
we have to use it much more efficiently,
214
564564
3274
09:39
and we have to make it clean.
215
567838
1688
09:41
We can see how to do that.
216
569526
1330
09:42
Take the example of California.
217
570856
1904
09:44
It would be in the top 10 countries in the world
218
572760
2610
09:47
if it was independent.
219
575370
2543
09:49
I don't want to start any —
220
577913
2565
09:52
(Laughter)
221
580478
3498
09:55
California's a big place.
222
583976
1845
09:57
(Laughter)
223
585821
2048
09:59
In the next five or six years,
224
587869
2741
10:02
they will likely move from
225
590610
2714
10:05
around 20 percent in renewables —
226
593324
2239
10:07
wind, solar and so on —
227
595563
1757
10:09
to over 33 percent,
228
597320
2473
10:11
and that would bring California back
229
599793
2439
10:14
to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
230
602232
2533
10:16
to where they were in 1990,
231
604765
1957
10:18
a period when the economy in California
232
606722
1744
10:20
would more or less have doubled.
233
608466
1432
10:21
That's a striking achievement.
234
609898
1450
10:23
It shows what can be done.
235
611348
1483
10:24
Not just California — the
incoming government of India
incoming government of India
236
612831
3307
10:28
is planning to get solar technology
237
616138
3026
10:31
to light up the homes
238
619164
1372
10:32
of 400 million people
239
620536
1710
10:34
who don't have electricity in India.
240
622246
2065
10:36
They've set themselves a target of five years.
241
624311
2480
10:38
I think they've got a good chance of doing that.
242
626791
3229
10:42
We'll see, but what you're seeing now
243
630020
2659
10:44
is people moving much more quickly.
244
632679
2311
10:46
Four hundred million, more than the population
245
634990
1734
10:48
of the United States.
246
636724
2126
10:50
Those are the kinds of ambitions now
247
638850
2093
10:52
people are setting themselves
248
640943
1706
10:54
in terms of rapidity of change.
249
642649
4480
10:59
Again, you can see
250
647129
1970
11:01
good decisions can bring quick results,
251
649099
1781
11:02
and those two transformations,
the economy and the structure
the economy and the structure
252
650880
3033
11:05
and the climate and the low carbon,
253
653913
1991
11:07
are intimately intertwined.
254
655904
2543
11:10
Do the first one well, the structural,
255
658447
1822
11:12
the second one on the climate
256
660269
1981
11:14
becomes much easier.
257
662250
3182
11:17
Look at land,
258
665432
1789
11:19
land and particularly forests.
259
667221
2588
11:21
Forests are the hosts to valuable
260
669809
3060
11:24
plant and animal species.
261
672869
2529
11:27
They hold water in the soil
262
675398
2348
11:29
and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,
263
677746
2918
11:32
fundamental to the tackling of climate change.
264
680664
3069
11:35
But we're losing our forests.
265
683733
2232
11:37
In the last decade, we've lost a forest area
266
685965
2827
11:40
the size of Portugal,
267
688792
2143
11:42
and much more has been degraded.
268
690935
2463
11:45
But we're already seeing
269
693398
1755
11:47
that we can do so much about that.
270
695153
2407
11:49
We can recognize the problem, but we can also
271
697560
2037
11:51
understand how to tackle it.
272
699597
2114
11:53
In Brazil, the rate of deforestation
273
701711
2655
11:56
has been reduced by 70 percent
274
704366
2017
11:58
over the last 10 years.
275
706383
2562
12:00
How? By involving local communities,
276
708945
2985
12:03
investing in their agriculture and their economies,
277
711930
2821
12:06
by monitoring more carefully,
278
714751
2100
12:08
by enforcing the law more strictly.
279
716851
3645
12:12
And it's not just stopping deforestation.
280
720496
1890
12:14
That's of course of first and fundamental importance,
281
722386
2441
12:16
but it's also regrading degraded land,
282
724827
3622
12:20
regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.
283
728449
4400
12:24
I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.
284
732849
3880
12:28
It was desperately poor. In the following years,
285
736729
2475
12:31
it suffered devastating famines
286
739204
1746
12:32
and profoundly destructive social conflict.
287
740950
3856
12:36
Over the last few years, actually more than a few,
288
744806
2834
12:39
Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.
289
747640
2925
12:42
It has ambitions to be a middle-income country
290
750565
1890
12:44
15 years from now
291
752455
2505
12:46
and to be carbon neutral.
292
754960
2243
12:49
Again, I think it's a strong ambition
293
757203
3048
12:52
but it is a plausible one.
294
760251
2295
12:54
You're seeing that commitment there.
295
762546
1411
12:55
You're seeing what can be done.
296
763957
1266
12:57
Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.
297
765223
2565
12:59
It's working in the rehabilitation of land.
298
767788
3622
13:03
In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,
299
771410
2430
13:05
a wonderful project
300
773840
1417
13:07
to plant trees on degraded land
301
775257
2183
13:09
and work with local communities
302
777440
1620
13:11
on sustainable forest management
303
779060
2449
13:13
has led to big increases in living standards.
304
781509
3041
13:16
So we can see, from Beijing to London,
305
784550
3864
13:20
from California to India,
306
788414
2289
13:22
from Brazil to Ethiopia,
307
790703
3127
13:25
we do understand
308
793830
1609
13:27
how to manage those two transformations,
309
795439
2205
13:29
the structural and the climate.
310
797644
1929
13:31
We do understand how to manage those well.
311
799573
4179
13:35
And technology is changing very rapidly.
312
803752
2778
13:38
I don't have to list all those things
313
806530
2407
13:40
to an audience like this,
314
808937
1891
13:42
but you can see the electric cars,
315
810828
2294
13:45
you can see the batteries using new materials.
316
813122
3084
13:48
You can see that we can manage remotely now
317
816206
2395
13:50
our household appliances on our
mobile phones when we're away.
mobile phones when we're away.
318
818601
3555
13:54
You can see better insulation.
319
822156
1807
13:55
And there's much more coming.
320
823963
1923
13:57
But, and it's a big but,
321
825886
2397
14:00
the world as a whole
322
828283
1609
14:01
is moving far too slowly.
323
829892
2778
14:04
We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.
324
832670
2542
14:07
We're not managing those structural transformations
325
835212
2711
14:09
as we can.
326
837923
2229
14:12
The depth of understanding of the
immense risks of climate change
immense risks of climate change
327
840152
3239
14:15
are not there yet.
328
843391
3579
14:18
The depth of understanding
329
846970
2131
14:21
of the attractiveness of what we can do
330
849101
2485
14:23
is not there yet.
331
851586
3664
14:27
We need political pressure to build.
332
855250
3498
14:30
We need leaders to step up.
333
858748
3532
14:34
We can have better growth,
334
862280
3499
14:37
better climate, a better world.
335
865779
4207
14:41
We can make,
336
869986
1812
14:43
by managing those two transformations well,
337
871798
2780
14:46
the next 100 years the best of centuries.
338
874578
4288
14:50
If we make a mess of it,
339
878866
1227
14:52
we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,
340
880093
3147
14:55
if we don't manage those transformations properly,
341
883240
2473
14:57
it will be, the next 100 years
342
885713
2891
15:00
will be the worst of centuries.
343
888604
2731
15:03
That's the major conclusion
344
891335
1892
15:05
of the report on the economy and climate
345
893227
3131
15:08
chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,
346
896358
3869
15:12
and I co-chaired that with him,
347
900227
2180
15:14
and we handed that report yesterday
348
902407
1953
15:16
here in New York, in the United Nations Building
349
904360
2990
15:19
to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,
350
907350
1472
15:20
Ban Ki-moon.
351
908822
1266
15:22
We know that we can do this.
352
910088
4105
15:26
Now, two weeks ago,
353
914193
3382
15:29
I became a grandfather for the fourth time.
354
917575
3400
15:32
Our daughter —
355
920975
2132
15:35
(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —
356
923107
10603
15:45
Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York
357
933710
2911
15:48
two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.
358
936621
3005
15:51
(Applause)
359
939626
4489
15:58
Two weeks old.
360
946870
2968
16:01
Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye
361
949838
5687
16:07
and tell them that we understood the issues,
362
955525
3747
16:11
that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,
363
959272
3318
16:14
and still we failed to act?
364
962590
4241
16:18
Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years
365
966831
3479
16:22
the best of centuries.
366
970310
1806
16:24
(Applause)
367
972116
4000
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Stern - Climate economistLord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy."
Why you should listen
Lord Nicholas Stern is the author of the seminal 2006 Review on the Economics of Climate Change, one of the most influential papers discussing the real economic implications of addressing (or not addressing) climate. The former Chief Economist at the World Bank, Lord Nicholas is now the IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics and Chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. Since 2013, he has been President of the British Academy. His research and publications have focused on the economics of climate change, economic development and growth, economic theory, tax reform, public policy and the role of the state and economies in transition.
In 2014, as part of a commission chaired by Felipe Calderon, Lord Nicholas helped produce a report titled "The New Climate Economy," laying out an economic plan for countering climate change.
Nicholas Stern | Speaker | TED.com