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Lord Nicholas Stern: The state of the climate — and what we might do about it
Lord Nikolas Stern (Lord Nicholas Stern): Stanje klime - i šta bismo mogli da učinimo povodom toga
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Kako možemo da se opohodimo sa globalnim podmuklim problemom klimatske promene - jednim problemom koji je preveliki da ga bilo koja država reši sama? Ekonomista Nikolas Stern izlaže plan, predstavljen Klimatskom samitu Ujedinjenih Nacija 2014. i pokazuju kako svetske države mogu da rade zajedno na klimi. To je velika vizija o saradnji, koja će se isplatiti višestruko iznad samog izbegavanja katastrofe. On pita: kako možemo da iskoristimo ovu krizu da poboljšamo živote za sve?
Nicholas Stern - Climate economist
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We are at a remarkable moment in time.
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Živimo u izvanrednom trenutku.
00:16
We face over the next two decades
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U naredne dve decenije, suočićemo se
00:19
two fundamental transformations
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sa dve ključne transformacije
00:21
that will determine whether the next 100 years
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koje će odrediti da li je
narednih 100 godina
narednih 100 godina
00:24
is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
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najbolji ili najgori vek.
00:28
Let me illustrate with an example.
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Dozvolite mi da objasnim kroz primer.
00:31
I first visited Beijing 25 years ago
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Prvi put sam posetio Peking pre 25 godina
00:34
to teach at the People's University of China.
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da bih predavao
na Narodnom Univerzitetu u Kini.
na Narodnom Univerzitetu u Kini.
00:37
China was getting serious about market economics
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Kina se uozbiljila na polju
tržišne ekonomije
tržišne ekonomije
00:40
and about university education,
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i univerzitetskog obrazovanja,
00:42
so they decided to call in the foreign experts.
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stoga su odlučili da
pozovu strane stručnjake.
pozovu strane stručnjake.
00:47
Like most other people,
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Kao i većina drugih ljudi,
00:48
I moved around Beijing by bicycle.
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vozio sam se biciklom po Pekingu.
00:51
Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,
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Osim izbegavanja ponekog vozila,
00:53
it was a safe and easy way to get around.
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to je bio siguran i lak način
za kretanje naokolo,
za kretanje naokolo,
00:57
Cycling in Beijing now
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Vožnja bicikla u Pekingu
00:58
is a completely different prospect.
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danas ima u potpunosti
drugačije mogućnosti.
drugačije mogućnosti.
01:01
The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.
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Automobili i kamioni
izazivaju zastoj na putevima.
izazivaju zastoj na putevima.
01:04
The air is dangerously polluted
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Vazduh je ozbiljno zagađen
01:06
from the burning of coal and diesel.
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od sagorevanja uglja i dizel goriva.
01:09
When I was there last in the spring,
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Kada sam prošlog proleća boravio tamo,
01:12
there was an advisory for people of my age —
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savetovali su ljude mojih godina -
01:14
over 65 —
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starije od 65. godina -
01:17
to stay indoors and not move much.
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da ostanu u kućama
i da se ne kreću previše.
i da se ne kreću previše.
01:20
How did this come about?
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Kako se ovo dogodilo?
01:22
It came from the way in which
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Nastalo je iz načina na koji je
01:24
Beijing has grown as a city.
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Peking rastao kao grad.
U prethodnih 25 godina
udvostručio se broj stanovnika
udvostručio se broj stanovnika
01:26
It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,
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01:29
from 10 million to 20 million.
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i više se udvostručio,
sa 10 na 20 miliona.
sa 10 na 20 miliona.
01:31
It's become a sprawling urban area
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Postao je gradsko
naselje koje je teško kontrolisati
naselje koje je teško kontrolisati
01:33
dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,
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i koje zavisi od prljavog goriva,
energije koja zagađuje,
energije koja zagađuje,
01:37
particularly coal.
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naročito od uglja.
01:39
China burns half the world's coal each year,
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Kina koristi polovinu
svetskih rezervi uglja svake godine
svetskih rezervi uglja svake godine
01:43
and that's why, it is a key reason why,
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i to je razlog, ključni razlog zašto,
01:47
it is the world's largest emitter
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spada u svetske najveće emitere
01:49
of greenhouse gases.
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štetnih gasova.
01:52
At the same time, we have to recognize
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Istovremeno moramo da uočimo
01:54
that in that period China has grown remarkably.
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da se u tom periodu
Kina značajno proširila.
Kina značajno proširila.
01:57
It has become the world's second largest economy.
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Postala je druga po redu
svetska ekonomska sila.
svetska ekonomska sila.
02:00
Hundreds of millions of people
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Stotine miliona ljudi
02:01
have been lifted out of poverty.
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je izašlo iz siromaštva.
02:03
That's really important.
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A to je veoma važno.
02:05
But at the same time, the people of China
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Ali istovremeno, narod Kine
02:08
are asking the question:
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postavlja ovo pitanje:
02:09
What's the value of this growth
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koja je vrednost ovog napretka
02:11
if our cities are unlivable?
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ako je nemoguće živeti u našim gradovima?
02:13
They've analyzed, diagnosed
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Oni su analizirali i ustanovili
02:15
that this is an unsustainable path of growth
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da je ovo neodrživ put
02:19
and development.
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porasta i razvoja.
02:21
China's planning to scale back coal.
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Kina planira da smanji upotrebu uglja.
02:23
It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
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Razmatra izgradnju gradova
na drugačije načine.
na drugačije načine.
02:29
Now, the growth of China
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Sada, porast Kine
02:31
is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,
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je deo dramatične promene,
promene iz korena.
promene iz korena.
02:35
in the structure of the world economy.
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u strukturi svetske ekonomije.
02:37
Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,
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Samo pre 25 godina, zemlje u razvoju,
02:40
the poorer countries of the world,
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siromašnije zemlje sveta,
02:42
were, notwithstanding being
the vast majority of the people,
the vast majority of the people,
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su bile, uprkos velikoj većini ljudi,
02:46
they accounted for only about a third
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činile su samo otprilike jednu trećinu
02:48
of the world's output.
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svetske proizvodnje.
02:50
Now it's more than half;
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Sada ima više od polovine,
02:51
25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds
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a za 25 godina,
verovatno će biti dve trećine
verovatno će biti dve trećine
02:54
from the countries that we saw 25 years ago
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iz država koje smo pre 25 godina
02:57
as developing.
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smatrali u razvoju.
02:59
That's a remarkable change.
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To je izvanredna promena.
03:00
It means that most countries around the world,
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Znači da će se većina država širom sveta,
03:03
rich or poor, are going to be facing
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bogatih ili siromašnih, suočiti
03:05
the two fundamental transformations
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sa dve korenite promene
03:07
that I want to talk about and highlight.
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o kojima želim da govorim
i koje želim da naglasim.
i koje želim da naglasim.
03:10
Now, the first of these transformations
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Sad, prva od ovih promena
03:12
is the basic structural change
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je osnovna strukturna promena
03:15
of the economies and societies
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privrede i društava
03:16
that I've already begun to illustrate
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koje sam upravo počeo da opisujem
03:18
through the description of Beijing.
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kroz opis Pekinga.
03:22
Fifty percent now in urban areas.
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U gradskim sredinama
trenutno ima 50% stanovnika,
trenutno ima 50% stanovnika,
03:25
That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.
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što će porasti na 70% do 2050. godine.
03:28
Over the next two decades, we'll see
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U naredne dve decenije, videćemo
03:31
the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,
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zahtev za porastom
proizvodnje energije za 40%,
proizvodnje energije za 40%,
03:34
and the growth in the economy and in the population
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i porast privrede i broja stanovnika
03:38
is putting increasing pressure on our land,
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stavlja veliki pritisak na našu zemlju,
03:41
on our water and on our forests.
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vodene površine i šume.
03:44
This is profound structural change.
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Ovo je temeljna strukturna promena.
03:48
If we manage it in a negligent
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Ako sa njom postupamo nemarno
03:49
or a shortsighted way,
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ili na kratkovidan način,
03:52
we will create waste, pollution, congestion,
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stvorićemo đubre, zagađenje,
gužvu u saobraćaju,
gužvu u saobraćaju,
03:56
destruction of land and forests.
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uništenje zemlje i šuma.
03:59
If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated
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Ako pomislimo na one tri oblasti
koje sam opisao
koje sam opisao
04:02
with my numbers — cities, energy, land —
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uz brojeve - gradovi, energija, zemlja -
04:05
if we manage all that badly,
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ako sve to loše negujemo,
04:07
then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods
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onda će budućnost naših života i opstanka
04:09
of the people around the world
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svih ljudi širom sveta
04:11
would be poor and damaged.
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biti siromašnije i oštećene.
04:14
And more than that,
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I više od toga,
04:16
the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,
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emisija štetnih gasova će porasti,
04:19
with immense risks to our climate.
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sa ozbiljnim rizicima po klimu.
04:23
Concentrations of greenhouse gases
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Koncentracija štetnih gasova
04:25
in the atmosphere are already
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u atmosferi je već
04:28
higher than they've been for millions of years.
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viša nego što je bila milionima godina.
04:32
If we go on increasing those concentrations,
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Ako nastavimo s povećanjem
koncentracije gasova,
koncentracije gasova,
04:35
we risk temperatures over the next century or so
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rizikujemo da u narednom veku i posle
nastanu temperature
nastanu temperature
04:39
that we have not seen on this planet
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koje nisu viđene na ovoj planeti
04:40
for tens of millions of years.
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desetinama miliona godina.
04:44
We've been around as Homo sapiens —
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Postojimo kao Homo sapiens -
04:46
that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —
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to je prilično
velikodušna definicija, sapiens -
velikodušna definicija, sapiens -
04:49
for perhaps a quarter of a million
years, a quarter of a million.
years, a quarter of a million.
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za možda četvrtinu miliona godina,
jednu četvrtinu miliona.
jednu četvrtinu miliona.
04:52
We risk temperatures we haven't seen
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Rizikujemo da iskusimo
04:53
for tens of millions of years over a century.
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temperature koje nismo videli
desetinama miliona godina u jednom veku.
desetinama miliona godina u jednom veku.
04:58
That would transform the relationship
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To će izmeniti odnos
05:00
between human beings and the planet.
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između ljudskih bića i planete.
05:04
It would lead to changing deserts,
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Kao rezultat će imati promenu pustinja,
05:09
changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,
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reka, modela uragana,
05:12
changing sea levels,
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promene nivoa mora,
05:13
hundreds of millions of people,
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stotine miliona ljudi,
05:16
perhaps billions of people who would have to move,
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i možda milijarde onih,
koji bi morali da se presele
koji bi morali da se presele
05:19
and if we've learned anything from history,
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i ako nas je istorija ičemu naučila,
05:21
that means severe and extended conflict.
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to znači ozbiljne i nategnute sukobe.
05:23
And we couldn't just turn it off.
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I mi nismo mogli tek tako da prekinemo.
05:25
You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.
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Ne možete potpisati mirovni
sporazum sa planetom.
sporazum sa planetom.
05:27
You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.
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Ne možete da pregovarate
sa zakonima fizike.
sa zakonima fizike.
05:30
You're in there. You're stuck.
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U tome ste i zaglavljeni ste.
05:31
Those are the stakes we're playing for,
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To su ulozi za koje igramo,
05:33
and that's why we have to make
this second transformation,
this second transformation,
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i to je razlog zašto moramo da
uradimo ovu drugu promenu,
uradimo ovu drugu promenu,
05:36
the climate transformation,
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klimatsku promenu,
i pređemo na privredu
sa niskom potrošnjom ugljenika.
sa niskom potrošnjom ugljenika.
05:37
and move to a low-carbon economy.
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05:40
Now, the first of these transformations
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Sad, prva od ovih promena
će se svakako dogoditi.
05:42
is going to happen anyway.
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05:43
We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,
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Moramo da odlučimo hoćemo li
05:45
the economic, or structural, transformation.
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tu privrednu ili strukturnu promenu
uraditi ispravno ili ne.
uraditi ispravno ili ne.
05:48
But the second of the transformations,
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Ali druga promena,
05:50
the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.
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klimatska promena,
koju smo odlučili da sprovedemo.
koju smo odlučili da sprovedemo.
05:54
Those two transformations face us
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Sa te dve promene suočićemo se
05:56
in the next two decades.
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u naredne dve decenije.
05:58
The next two decades are decisive
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Te dve decenije su odlučujuće
06:02
for what we have to do.
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za ono što moramo da uradimo.
06:04
Now, the more I've thought about this,
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Sad, što više razmišljam o tome
06:06
the two transformations coming together,
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te dve promene dolaze zajedno,
06:08
the more I've come to realize
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i to ja više shvatam
06:09
that this is an enormous opportunity.
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da je ovo velika prilika.
06:12
It's an opportunity which we can use
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To je jedna prilika
koju možemo da iskoristimo
koju možemo da iskoristimo
06:15
or it's an opportunity which we can lose.
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ili da je izgubimo.
06:18
And let me explain through those three key areas
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I dozvolite da objasnim kroz
one tri ključne oblasti
one tri ključne oblasti
06:21
that I've identified: cities, energy and land.
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koje sam odredio:
gradovi, energija i zemljište.
gradovi, energija i zemljište.
06:23
And let me start with cities.
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I dozvolite da počnem sa gradovima.
06:26
I've already described the problems of Beijing:
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Već sam opisao probleme Pekinga:
06:30
pollution, congestion, waste and so on.
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zagađenje, gužva u saobraćaju, đubre, itd.
06:32
Surely we recognize that in many of our cities
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Sigurno možemo da prepoznamo ove
probleme u mnogim gradovima
probleme u mnogim gradovima
06:36
around the world.
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širom sveta.
06:37
Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,
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Sad, sa gradovima, kao i životom,
ali naročito gradovima
ali naročito gradovima
06:40
you have to think ahead.
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morate unapred da razmišljate.
06:43
The cities that are going to be built —
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Gradovi koji će se izgraditi -
06:45
and there are many, and many big ones —
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kao i mnogi, mnogi veliki gradovi -
06:47
we have to think of how to design them
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moramo da osmislimo način da
06:48
in a compact way
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ih izgradimo kompaktno
06:50
so we can save travel time
and we can save energy.
and we can save energy.
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kako bismo mogli da uštedimo
vreme putovanja i energiju.
vreme putovanja i energiju.
06:53
The cities that already are
there, well established,
there, well established,
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Gradovi koji su već tamo,
dobro sagrađeni,
dobro sagrađeni,
06:57
we have to think about renewal
and investment in them
and investment in them
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moramo da razmislimo o obnovi
i ulaganjima u njih
i ulaganjima u njih
07:00
so that we can connect ourselves much better
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tako da možemo bolje da povežemo
07:03
within those cities, and make it easier,
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između gradova, i da olakšamo,
07:05
encourage more people, to live closer to the center.
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ohrabrimo više ljudi da žive blizu centru.
07:09
We've got examples building around the world
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Imamo primere izgradnje širom sveta
07:11
of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.
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i načine na koje to možemo da uradimo.
07:14
The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia
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Brzi autobuski sistem
u Bogoti u Kolumbiji
u Bogoti u Kolumbiji
07:18
is a very important case of how to move around
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je važan primer kako da putujemo
07:20
safely and quickly in a non-polluting way
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sigurno i brzo, a da ne zagađujemo okolinu
07:23
in a city: very frequent buses,
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u gradu; redovniji autobusi
07:26
strongly protected routes, the same service, really,
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strogo zaštićene rute, ista usluga,
07:29
as an underground railway system,
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zaista, kao sistem podzemne železnice,
07:31
but much, much cheaper
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ali mnogo, mnogo jeftiniji
07:33
and can be done much more quickly,
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i može da se sprovede mnogo brže,
07:35
a brilliant idea in many more cities
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izvanredna ideja koja se razvija
07:37
around the world that's developing.
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u mnogim gradovima širom sveta.
07:39
Now, some things in cities do take time.
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Neke izmene u gradovima
zahtevaju vremena.
zahtevaju vremena.
07:41
Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.
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Neke izmene se mogu sprovesti mnogo brže.
07:44
Take my hometown, London.
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Uzmite za primer moj rodni grad, London.
07:46
In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people
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Godine 1952, od smoga
je preminulo 4000 ljudi u Londonu
je preminulo 4000 ljudi u Londonu
07:52
and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.
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i oštećeni su životi mnogih drugih.
07:54
And it happened all the time.
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I događalo se stalno.
07:56
For those of you live outside London in the U.K.
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Za vas koji živite van Londona,
ali u Britaniji
ali u Britaniji
07:58
will remember it used to be called The Smoke.
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2193
setićete se da smo ga zvali Dim.
08:00
That's the way London was.
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Takav je London bio.
08:02
By regulating coal, within a few years
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Ali regulisanjem uglja, u nekoliko godina,
08:04
the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.
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problemi sa smogom su se naglo smanjili.
08:07
I remember the smogs well.
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I dobro pamtim smog.
08:09
When the visibility dropped to [less] than
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2723
Kada se vidljivost smanjila do manje od
08:11
a few meters,
183
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1993
nekoliko metara,
zaustavili bi autobuse
i morao sam da pešačim.
i morao sam da pešačim.
08:13
they stopped the buses and I had to walk.
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1856
08:15
This was the 1950s.
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2058
To je bilo 1950-ih.
08:17
I had to walk home three miles from school.
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3898
Morao sam da pešačim
od škole 5 km do kuće.
od škole 5 km do kuće.
08:21
Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.
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Opet, disanje je bilo opasna aktivnost.
08:25
But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.
188
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2678
Ali se promenilo. A promenilo se odlukom.
08:27
Good decisions can bring good results,
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3169
Dobre odluke donose dobre rezultate,
08:31
striking results, quickly.
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izvanredne rezulate, brzo.
08:33
We've seen more: In London, we've
introduced the congestion charge,
introduced the congestion charge,
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Videli smo i više: i Londonu, uveli
smo taksu za zastoj u saobraćaju,
smo taksu za zastoj u saobraćaju,
08:36
actually quite quickly and effectively,
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2706
zapravo jako brzo i efikasno,
08:39
and we've seen great improvements
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1620
i videli smo velike napretke
08:40
in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.
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u autobuskom sistemu,
i raščistili smo autobuski sistem.
i raščistili smo autobuski sistem.
08:44
You can see that the two
transformations I've described,
transformations I've described,
195
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3120
Možete da vidite da ove dve promene,
koje sam opisao,
koje sam opisao,
08:47
the structural and the climate,
196
515902
1956
strukturne i klimatske,
08:49
come very much together.
197
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2632
idu jedna uz drugu.
08:52
But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,
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Ali moramo da ulažemo.
Moramo da ulažemo u gradove,
Moramo da ulažemo u gradove,
08:55
and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,
199
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2533
i moramo da ulažemo pametno,
a ako to uradimo
a ako to uradimo
08:57
we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,
200
525956
4536
imaćemo čistije gradove, tiše gradove,
bezbednije gradove.
bezbednije gradove.
09:02
more attractive cities, more productive cities,
201
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2657
mnogo privlačnije gradove,
mnogo produktivnije gradove,
mnogo produktivnije gradove,
09:05
and stronger community in those cities —
202
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2767
i snažnije zajednice u ovim gradovima -
09:07
public transport, recycling, reusing,
203
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2248
gradski prevoz, reciklaža,
ponovno korišćenje,
ponovno korišćenje,
09:10
all sorts of things that bring communities together.
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4049
sve izmene koje će udružiti zajednice.
09:14
We can do that, but we have to think,
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1857
Mi to možemo, ali moramo da razmislimo,
09:16
we have to invest, we have to plan.
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2280
moramo da ulažemo
i moramo da imamo plan,
i moramo da imamo plan,
09:18
Let me turn to energy.
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2171
Dozvolite mi da se vratim na energiju.
09:20
Now, energy over the last 25 years
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3222
Sad, energija je u prethodnih 25 godina
09:23
has increased by about 50 percent.
209
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2236
porasla za oko 50%.
09:25
Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.
210
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2617
Od toga 80% potiče iz fosilnih goriva.
09:28
Over the next 20 years,
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U narednih 20 godina,
09:30
perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.
212
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3776
možda će se povećati za još oko 40%.
09:34
We have to invest strongly in energy,
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2534
Moramo mnogo da ulažemo u energiju,
09:36
we have to use it much more efficiently,
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3274
moramo da je koristimo efikasnije,
09:39
and we have to make it clean.
215
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1688
i moramo da je napravimo čistijom.
09:41
We can see how to do that.
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1330
Možemo da vidimo način.
09:42
Take the example of California.
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1904
Uzmimo primer Kalifornije.
09:44
It would be in the top 10 countries in the world
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2610
Bila bi deset najboljih država u svetu
09:47
if it was independent.
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2543
da je nezavisna.
09:49
I don't want to start any —
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2565
Ne želim da započinjem ništa -
09:52
(Laughter)
221
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3498
(Smeh)
09:55
California's a big place.
222
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1845
Kalifornija je veliko mesto.
09:57
(Laughter)
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2048
(Smeh)
09:59
In the next five or six years,
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2741
U narednih pet ili šest godina,
10:02
they will likely move from
225
590610
2714
verovatno će preći sa skoro 20%
10:05
around 20 percent in renewables —
226
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2239
u vrstama obnovljive energije -
10:07
wind, solar and so on —
227
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1757
vetar, sunce itd. -
10:09
to over 33 percent,
228
597320
2473
na preko 33%,
10:11
and that would bring California back
229
599793
2439
i to će povratiti Kaliforniju
10:14
to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
230
602232
2533
na emisiju štetnih gasova u 2020. godini
10:16
to where they were in 1990,
231
604765
1957
do mesta gde su bili 1990. godine,
10:18
a period when the economy in California
232
606722
1744
period kada bi se privreda u Kaliforniji
10:20
would more or less have doubled.
233
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1432
manje - više udvostrčila.
10:21
That's a striking achievement.
234
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1450
To je izvanredno ostvarenje.
10:23
It shows what can be done.
235
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1483
Pokazuje šta može da se uradi.
10:24
Not just California — the
incoming government of India
incoming government of India
236
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3307
Ne samo Kalifornija,
već nadolazeća vlada Indije
već nadolazeća vlada Indije
10:28
is planning to get solar technology
237
616138
3026
planira da dobije solarnu tehnologiju
10:31
to light up the homes
238
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1372
da osvetli domove
10:32
of 400 million people
239
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1710
400 miliona ljudi
10:34
who don't have electricity in India.
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2065
koji nemaju struju u Indiji.
10:36
They've set themselves a target of five years.
241
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2480
Postavili su sebi cilj
da to urade za 5 godina.
da to urade za 5 godina.
10:38
I think they've got a good chance of doing that.
242
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3229
Mislim da imaju dobre šanse da uspeju.
10:42
We'll see, but what you're seeing now
243
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2659
Videćemo, ali ono što vidimo sada
10:44
is people moving much more quickly.
244
632679
2311
je da se ljudi sele mnogo brže.
10:46
Four hundred million, more than the population
245
634990
1734
Četiri stotine miliona, što je više
10:48
of the United States.
246
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2126
od broja stanovnika SAD-a.
10:50
Those are the kinds of ambitions now
247
638850
2093
To su one ambicije sada
10:52
people are setting themselves
248
640943
1706
koje ljudi postavljaju sebi
10:54
in terms of rapidity of change.
249
642649
4480
u odnosu na brzinu promene.
10:59
Again, you can see
250
647129
1970
Opet, možete videti da dobre odluke
11:01
good decisions can bring quick results,
251
649099
1781
mogu doneti brze rezultate,
11:02
and those two transformations,
the economy and the structure
the economy and the structure
252
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3033
i ove dve promene, privreda i struktura,
11:05
and the climate and the low carbon,
253
653913
1991
klima i smanjenje ugljenika,
11:07
are intimately intertwined.
254
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2543
su međusobno isprepletane.
11:10
Do the first one well, the structural,
255
658447
1822
Uradite prvu kako treba, tu strukturnu,
11:12
the second one on the climate
256
660269
1981
i druga koja se tiče klime
11:14
becomes much easier.
257
662250
3182
postaje mnogo jednostavnija.
11:17
Look at land,
258
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1789
Pogledajte u zemlju,
11:19
land and particularly forests.
259
667221
2588
zemljište i naročito šume.
11:21
Forests are the hosts to valuable
260
669809
3060
Šume su staništa za dragocene
11:24
plant and animal species.
261
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2529
biljne i životinjske vrste.
11:27
They hold water in the soil
262
675398
2348
One čuvaju vodu u zemljištu
11:29
and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,
263
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2918
i uzimaju ugljen dioksid iz atmosfere,
11:32
fundamental to the tackling of climate change.
264
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3069
značajan za rešavanje klimatske promene.
11:35
But we're losing our forests.
265
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2232
Ali mi gubimo naše šume.
11:37
In the last decade, we've lost a forest area
266
685965
2827
U prethodnoj deceniji,
izgubili smo površine pod šumom
izgubili smo površine pod šumom
11:40
the size of Portugal,
267
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2143
u veličini Portugala,
11:42
and much more has been degraded.
268
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2463
i mnogo više je degradirano.
11:45
But we're already seeing
269
693398
1755
Ali već vidimo
11:47
that we can do so much about that.
270
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2407
da možemo mnogo da uradimo povodom toga.
11:49
We can recognize the problem, but we can also
271
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2037
Možemo da prepoznamo problem, ali takođe
11:51
understand how to tackle it.
272
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2114
možemo da razumemo kako da ga rešimo.
11:53
In Brazil, the rate of deforestation
273
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2655
U Brazilu, stopa krčenja šuma
11:56
has been reduced by 70 percent
274
704366
2017
smanjila se za 70%
11:58
over the last 10 years.
275
706383
2562
u prethodnih 10 godina.
12:00
How? By involving local communities,
276
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2985
Kako? Uključivanjem lokalnih zajednica,
12:03
investing in their agriculture and their economies,
277
711930
2821
ulaganjem u poljoprivredu i gazdinstva,
12:06
by monitoring more carefully,
278
714751
2100
uz pažljivije nadgledanje,
12:08
by enforcing the law more strictly.
279
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3645
i strožu primenu zakona.
12:12
And it's not just stopping deforestation.
280
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1890
I to nije samo
zaustavljanje krčenja šuma.
zaustavljanje krčenja šuma.
12:14
That's of course of first and fundamental importance,
281
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2441
To je naravno od prve i osnovne važnosti,
12:16
but it's also regrading degraded land,
282
724827
3622
ali se takođe tiče vraćanja
degradiranog zemljišta,
degradiranog zemljišta,
12:20
regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.
283
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4400
regenerisanja, obnavljanja
degradiranog zemljišta.
degradiranog zemljišta.
12:24
I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.
284
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3880
Prvi put sam posetio Etiopiju 1967.
12:28
It was desperately poor. In the following years,
285
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2475
Bila je strašno siromašna.
U narednim godinama,
U narednim godinama,
12:31
it suffered devastating famines
286
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1746
patila je od razornih nestašica hrane
12:32
and profoundly destructive social conflict.
287
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3856
i prilično destruktivnih
društvenih sukoba.
društvenih sukoba.
12:36
Over the last few years, actually more than a few,
288
744806
2834
U prethodnih nekoliko godina,
zapravo više nego nekoliko,
zapravo više nego nekoliko,
12:39
Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.
289
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2925
Etiopija je napredovala mnogo brže.
12:42
It has ambitions to be a middle-income country
290
750565
1890
Imala je ambicije da postane država
12:44
15 years from now
291
752455
2505
osrednjeg prihoda, u narednih 15 godina
12:46
and to be carbon neutral.
292
754960
2243
i da postane neutralna
po pitanju ugljenika.
po pitanju ugljenika.
12:49
Again, I think it's a strong ambition
293
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3048
Opet, mislim da je to snažna ambicija
12:52
but it is a plausible one.
294
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2295
ali je primenljiva.
12:54
You're seeing that commitment there.
295
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1411
Vidite tu obavezu ovde.
12:55
You're seeing what can be done.
296
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1266
Vidite šta je moguće učiniti.
12:57
Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.
297
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2565
Etiopija investira u čistu energiju.
12:59
It's working in the rehabilitation of land.
298
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3622
Radi na rehabilitaciji zemljišta.
13:03
In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,
299
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2430
U Humbu, jugozapadnoj Etiopiji,
13:05
a wonderful project
300
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1417
predivan projekat
13:07
to plant trees on degraded land
301
775257
2183
za sadnju drveća na degradiranom zemljištu
13:09
and work with local communities
302
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1620
i rad sa lokalnim zajednicama
13:11
on sustainable forest management
303
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2449
o održivom upravljanju šumama
13:13
has led to big increases in living standards.
304
781509
3041
doveo je do velikog porasta
životnog standarda.
životnog standarda.
13:16
So we can see, from Beijing to London,
305
784550
3864
Stoga možemo da vidimo,
od Pekinga do Londona,
od Pekinga do Londona,
13:20
from California to India,
306
788414
2289
od Kalifornije do Indije,
13:22
from Brazil to Ethiopia,
307
790703
3127
od Brazila do Etiopije,
13:25
we do understand
308
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1609
da zaista razumemo
13:27
how to manage those two transformations,
309
795439
2205
kako da upravljamo ovim dvema promenama,
13:29
the structural and the climate.
310
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1929
strukturnom i klimatskom.
13:31
We do understand how to manage those well.
311
799573
4179
Mi zaista razumemo kako njima
dobro da upravljamo.
dobro da upravljamo.
13:35
And technology is changing very rapidly.
312
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2778
A tehnologija se veoma brzo menja.
13:38
I don't have to list all those things
313
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2407
Ne moram da takve podatke nabrojim
13:40
to an audience like this,
314
808937
1891
publici kao što je ova,
13:42
but you can see the electric cars,
315
810828
2294
ali možete da vidite
električne automobile,
električne automobile,
13:45
you can see the batteries using new materials.
316
813122
3084
možete da vidite baterije
koje koriste nove materijale.
koje koriste nove materijale.
13:48
You can see that we can manage remotely now
317
816206
2395
Možete da vidite da sada možemo
da upravljamo iz daljine
da upravljamo iz daljine
13:50
our household appliances on our
mobile phones when we're away.
mobile phones when we're away.
318
818601
3555
kućnim aparatima preko mobilnih telefona,
kada smo odsutni.
kada smo odsutni.
13:54
You can see better insulation.
319
822156
1807
Možete da vidite bolju izolaciju.
13:55
And there's much more coming.
320
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1923
l mnogo toga što tek dolazi.
13:57
But, and it's a big but,
321
825886
2397
Ali, tu je i to veliko ali,
14:00
the world as a whole
322
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1609
svet kao celina
14:01
is moving far too slowly.
323
829892
2778
se kreće jako sporo.
14:04
We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.
324
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2542
Mi ne smanjujemo emisiju gasova,
onako kako bi trebalo.
onako kako bi trebalo.
14:07
We're not managing those structural transformations
325
835212
2711
Ne upravljamo tim strukturnim promenama
14:09
as we can.
326
837923
2229
kako možemo.
14:12
The depth of understanding of the
immense risks of climate change
immense risks of climate change
327
840152
3239
Ozbiljno shvatanje ove
velike rizike klimatske promene
velike rizike klimatske promene
14:15
are not there yet.
328
843391
3579
još uvek nije prisutno.
14:18
The depth of understanding
329
846970
2131
Ozbiljno shvatanje
14:21
of the attractiveness of what we can do
330
849101
2485
privlačnih izmena koje možemo da uradimo
14:23
is not there yet.
331
851586
3664
još uvek nije prisutno.
14:27
We need political pressure to build.
332
855250
3498
Potrebno je da izgradimo
politički pritisak.
politički pritisak.
14:30
We need leaders to step up.
333
858748
3532
Potrebno je da se vođe istaknu.
14:34
We can have better growth,
334
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3499
Možemo imati veći razvoj,
14:37
better climate, a better world.
335
865779
4207
bolju klimu, bolji svet.
14:41
We can make,
336
869986
1812
Uz dobro upravljanje
ovim dvema promenama,
ovim dvema promenama,
14:43
by managing those two transformations well,
337
871798
2780
možemo sledećih 100 godina načiniti
14:46
the next 100 years the best of centuries.
338
874578
4288
najboljim vekom od svih do sada.
Ako napravimo nered od toga,
14:50
If we make a mess of it,
339
878866
1227
14:52
we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,
340
880093
3147
mi, vi i ja, ako bismo to uradili,
14:55
if we don't manage those transformations properly,
341
883240
2473
ako nepravilno upotrebimo ove promene,
14:57
it will be, the next 100 years
342
885713
2891
narednih 100 godina biće
15:00
will be the worst of centuries.
343
888604
2731
najgori vek.
15:03
That's the major conclusion
344
891335
1892
To je veliki zaključak
15:05
of the report on the economy and climate
345
893227
3131
izveštaja o privredi i klimi
15:08
chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,
346
896358
3869
kojeg je doneo bivši meksički
predsednik Felipe Kalderon
predsednik Felipe Kalderon
15:12
and I co-chaired that with him,
347
900227
2180
zajedno sa mnom,
15:14
and we handed that report yesterday
348
902407
1953
i juče smo predali izveštaj
15:16
here in New York, in the United Nations Building
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ovde u Njujorku,
u zgradi Ujedinjenih nacija
u zgradi Ujedinjenih nacija
15:19
to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,
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Generalnom sekretaru UN-a,
15:20
Ban Ki-moon.
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Ban Ki Munu.
15:22
We know that we can do this.
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Mi znamo da to možemo da uradimo.
15:26
Now, two weeks ago,
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Sad, pre dve nedelje,
15:29
I became a grandfather for the fourth time.
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postao sam deda po četvrti put.
15:32
Our daughter —
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Naša ćerka -
15:35
(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —
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(Beba plače) (Smeh) (Aplauz) -
15:45
Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York
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Naša ćerka je rodila Rozu ovde u Njujorku
15:48
two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.
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pre dve nedelje. Ovde su Helen i Roza.
15:51
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:58
Two weeks old.
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Dve nedelje stara.
16:01
Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye
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Da li ćemo da gledamo naše unučiće u oči
16:07
and tell them that we understood the issues,
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i reći im da smo razumeli probleme,
16:11
that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,
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da smo prepoznali opasnosti i mogućnosti
16:14
and still we failed to act?
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i da nismo delovali?
16:18
Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years
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Naravno da ne.
Hajde da narednih 100 godina
Hajde da narednih 100 godina
16:22
the best of centuries.
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napravimo najboljim vekom.
16:24
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Stern - Climate economistLord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy."
Why you should listen
Lord Nicholas Stern is the author of the seminal 2006 Review on the Economics of Climate Change, one of the most influential papers discussing the real economic implications of addressing (or not addressing) climate. The former Chief Economist at the World Bank, Lord Nicholas is now the IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics and Chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. Since 2013, he has been President of the British Academy. His research and publications have focused on the economics of climate change, economic development and growth, economic theory, tax reform, public policy and the role of the state and economies in transition.
In 2014, as part of a commission chaired by Felipe Calderon, Lord Nicholas helped produce a report titled "The New Climate Economy," laying out an economic plan for countering climate change.
Nicholas Stern | Speaker | TED.com