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Lord Nicholas Stern: The state of the climate — and what we might do about it
尼古拉斯•斯特恩勋爵(Lord Nicholas Stern): 气候问题的现状——我们能为之做些什么
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我们如何解决气候变化这一全球性问题 —— 一个巨大到任何一个国家都无法单独解决的问题。经济学家尼古拉斯·斯特恩在2014年联合国气候峰会上提出了一个方案，展示了世界上所有的国家如何共同合作，解决气候问题。这是对于合作的高瞻远瞩，全世界的受益将远不止避免灾难。他不断探索：我们如何利用这个危机，为每个人创造更好的生活？
Nicholas Stern - Climate economist
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Lord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We are at a remarkable moment in time.
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我们正处在一个关键时刻。
00:16
We face over the next two decades
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在下一个20年，我们面临两个重大变革，
00:19
two fundamental transformations
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00:21
that will determine whether the next 100 years
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这将决定下一个100年
00:24
is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.
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是最美好的世纪，还是最糟糕的世纪。
00:28
Let me illustrate with an example.
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我举一个例子来阐述一下。
00:31
I first visited Beijing 25 years ago
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25年前我去了北京，
00:34
to teach at the People's University of China.
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在中国人民大学教书。
00:37
China was getting serious about market economics
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那时中国正重视市场经济和大学教育的问题，
00:40
and about university education,
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00:42
so they decided to call in the foreign experts.
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所以他们打算向国外专家求助。
00:47
Like most other people,
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像大多数人一样，
00:48
I moved around Beijing by bicycle.
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我骑自行车在北京游逛。
00:51
Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,
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除了偶尔要躲一下其他车辆，
00:53
it was a safe and easy way to get around.
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自行车出行既简单又快捷。
00:57
Cycling in Beijing now
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现在在北京骑自行车是完全不同的体验了。
00:58
is a completely different prospect.
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01:01
The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.
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轿车和卡车拥堵在路上，
01:04
The air is dangerously polluted
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因为燃烧煤炭和柴油，空气污染严重。
01:06
from the burning of coal and diesel.
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01:09
When I was there last in the spring,
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上一次去北京是一个春天，
01:12
there was an advisory for people of my age —
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有建议针对我这个年纪的人——
超过65岁——
01:14
over 65 —
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01:17
to stay indoors and not move much.
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留在室内，减少活动。
01:20
How did this come about?
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如今这种状况是怎么产生的？
01:22
It came from the way in which
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这种状况是由北京城市的发展方式导致的。
01:24
Beijing has grown as a city.
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01:26
It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,
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北京人口在过去25年的时间里，
01:29
from 10 million to 20 million.
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翻了不止一番，从1千万增长到2千万。
01:31
It's become a sprawling urban area
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北京正变成一个依赖不清洁的燃料、能源的城市，
01:33
dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,
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01:37
particularly coal.
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煤炭首当其冲。
01:39
China burns half the world's coal each year,
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中国每年烧掉的煤占掉全世界的一半，
01:43
and that's why, it is a key reason why,
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这是中国为何是世界上
01:47
it is the world's largest emitter
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排放温室气体最多的国家的重要原因。
01:49
of greenhouse gases.
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01:52
At the same time, we have to recognize
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与此同时，我们必须认识到，
01:54
that in that period China has grown remarkably.
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在这段时期，中国取得了卓越的发展，
01:57
It has become the world's second largest economy.
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已经成为世界第二经济大国，
02:00
Hundreds of millions of people
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数以亿计的人民已摆脱贫困。
02:01
have been lifted out of poverty.
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这是非常重要的。
02:03
That's really important.
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02:05
But at the same time, the people of China
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但与此同时，中国人民在问：
02:08
are asking the question:
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02:09
What's the value of this growth
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如果城市变得不宜居，这样的发展有何意义？
02:11
if our cities are unlivable?
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02:13
They've analyzed, diagnosed
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他们已经研究并确信，
02:15
that this is an unsustainable path of growth
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这不是一个可持续发展的路线。
02:19
and development.
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02:21
China's planning to scale back coal.
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中国正计划缩减煤炭使用规模，
02:23
It's looking to build its cities in different ways.
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正以不同的路线来发展城市。
02:29
Now, the growth of China
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中国的发展是世界经济格局的
02:31
is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,
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重要而深远的变革之一。
02:35
in the structure of the world economy.
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02:37
Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,
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就在25年前，发展中国家，
02:40
the poorer countries of the world,
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世界上这些相对较贫困的国家，
02:42
were, notwithstanding being
the vast majority of the people,
the vast majority of the people,
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尽管拥有世界上最多的人口，
02:46
they accounted for only about a third
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它们只占了全世界产出的三分之一，
02:48
of the world's output.
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02:50
Now it's more than half;
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如今已超过一半了，
02:51
25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds
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25年之后，会达到三分之二，
02:54
from the countries that we saw 25 years ago
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正是这些25年之前的发展中国家。
02:57
as developing.
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02:59
That's a remarkable change.
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这真是一个不可思议的转变。
这意味着，世界上大部分国家，
03:00
It means that most countries around the world,
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03:03
rich or poor, are going to be facing
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无论是贫困的还是富裕的，都将面临这两个深刻的变革，
03:05
the two fundamental transformations
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03:07
that I want to talk about and highlight.
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这两个变革就是我想谈论并强调的。
03:10
Now, the first of these transformations
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第一个变革是经济和社会基础结构的变化，
03:12
is the basic structural change
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03:15
of the economies and societies
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03:16
that I've already begun to illustrate
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这个变化在我谈及北京时就已开始说明了。
03:18
through the description of Beijing.
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03:22
Fifty percent now in urban areas.
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50%的人目前居住在城市，
03:25
That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.
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到2050年，这一数字将达到70%。
03:28
Over the next two decades, we'll see
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未来的20年中，
03:31
the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,
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对能源的需求将增长40%，
03:34
and the growth in the economy and in the population
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经济的发展和人口的增长
03:38
is putting increasing pressure on our land,
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正对我们的土地、水源和森林施加越来越大的压力。
03:41
on our water and on our forests.
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03:44
This is profound structural change.
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这是深刻的结构的变化。
03:48
If we manage it in a negligent
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如果我们忽视这一问题，
03:49
or a shortsighted way,
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或目光短浅地看待这一问题，
03:52
we will create waste, pollution, congestion,
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土地和森林将被我们浪费、污染、破坏或变得拥堵。
03:56
destruction of land and forests.
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03:59
If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated
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考虑到我刚才用数字说明的
04:02
with my numbers — cities, energy, land —
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三方面——城市、能源、土地——的问题，
04:05
if we manage all that badly,
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如果我们不予以善待，
04:07
then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods
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那么人类以及地球上所有生物的处境都将不堪设想。
04:09
of the people around the world
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04:11
would be poor and damaged.
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04:14
And more than that,
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不仅如此，
04:16
the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,
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温室气体的排放将会上升，
04:19
with immense risks to our climate.
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这将对气候带来巨大的威胁。
04:23
Concentrations of greenhouse gases
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大气中温室气体的浓度，
04:25
in the atmosphere are already
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已经是数百万年以来最高值。
04:28
higher than they've been for millions of years.
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04:32
If we go on increasing those concentrations,
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如果浓度持续增加，
04:35
we risk temperatures over the next century or so
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到下个世纪，地球的温度
04:39
that we have not seen on this planet
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会有达到数千万年来最高值的风险。
04:40
for tens of millions of years.
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智人——或更宽泛的定义，现代人——时期，
04:44
We've been around as Homo sapiens —
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04:46
that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —
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04:49
for perhaps a quarter of a million
years, a quarter of a million.
years, a quarter of a million.
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大约25万年，是的，25万年。
04:52
We risk temperatures we haven't seen
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在一个世纪内，我们将面临
04:53
for tens of millions of years over a century.
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数千万年来没遇到过的气温上升的风险。
04:58
That would transform the relationship
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这将改变人类和地球的关系，
05:00
between human beings and the planet.
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05:04
It would lead to changing deserts,
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这将改变沙漠，
05:09
changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,
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改变河流，改变飓风的模式，
05:12
changing sea levels,
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改变海平面高度，
05:13
hundreds of millions of people,
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数以亿计，甚至数以十亿计的人将不得不搬迁。
05:16
perhaps billions of people who would have to move,
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05:19
and if we've learned anything from history,
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如果我们从历史中学到了点什么的话，
05:21
that means severe and extended conflict.
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这意味着更严重和广泛的冲突矛盾。
05:23
And we couldn't just turn it off.
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我们不能简单地一关了之，
05:25
You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.
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不可能跟地球签订一个和平协议，
05:27
You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.
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不能跟物理定律讨价还价。
05:30
You're in there. You're stuck.
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身处其中，别无他法。
05:31
Those are the stakes we're playing for,
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刚才所描述的正是我们行为的赌注，
05:33
and that's why we have to make
this second transformation,
this second transformation,
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正因此，我们不得不进行第二项变革，
05:36
the climate transformation,
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即气候的转变，并转向低碳经济。
05:37
and move to a low-carbon economy.
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05:40
Now, the first of these transformations
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第一项变革，即经济和社会结构的变革，
05:42
is going to happen anyway.
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迟早都会发生，
05:43
We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,
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我们能做的只是决定它是往好还是坏的方向发展。
05:45
the economic, or structural, transformation.
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05:48
But the second of the transformations,
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但这第二项变革，
05:50
the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.
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即气候的转变，需要我们决定去做。
05:54
Those two transformations face us
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未来的二十年，我们将面临这两项变革。
05:56
in the next two decades.
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05:58
The next two decades are decisive
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我们决定要做的事情，对未来二十年会有决定性影响。
06:02
for what we have to do.
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06:04
Now, the more I've thought about this,
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我越想这个问题，
06:06
the two transformations coming together,
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即两项变革一起到来，
06:08
the more I've come to realize
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我越觉得这是一个巨大的机会。
06:09
that this is an enormous opportunity.
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我们要么把握住这个机会，要么错失。
06:12
It's an opportunity which we can use
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06:15
or it's an opportunity which we can lose.
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06:18
And let me explain through those three key areas
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我来解释刚才提到的三个关键方面：城市、能源和土地。
06:21
that I've identified: cities, energy and land.
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06:23
And let me start with cities.
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从城市开始吧。
06:26
I've already described the problems of Beijing:
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我已经描述北京存在的问题了：
06:30
pollution, congestion, waste and so on.
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污染、拥堵、浪费等等。
06:32
Surely we recognize that in many of our cities
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当然，世界范围内很多城市都存在这些问题。
06:36
around the world.
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如今，对于城市的发展，你必须放远目光。
06:37
Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,
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06:40
you have to think ahead.
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06:43
The cities that are going to be built —
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有很多很多大城市将在未来建成，
06:45
and there are many, and many big ones —
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06:47
we have to think of how to design them
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我们必须考虑如何以更紧凑的方式来规划城市，
06:48
in a compact way
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06:50
so we can save travel time
and we can save energy.
and we can save energy.
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这样我们就能节省花在路上的时间，并节约能源。
06:53
The cities that already are
there, well established,
there, well established,
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对于那些已经发展起来的城市，
06:57
we have to think about renewal
and investment in them
and investment in them
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我们需要考虑如何城市重塑，如何投资，
07:00
so that we can connect ourselves much better
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这样我们就能更和谐地在城市居住，
07:03
within those cities, and make it easier,
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生活得以简单化，
07:05
encourage more people, to live closer to the center.
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让更多的人在靠近城中心的地方居住。
07:09
We've got examples building around the world
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这种理念的实践，
07:11
of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.
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我们在世界范围内已看到很多例子。
07:14
The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia
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哥伦比亚的波哥大市的快速公交系统是一个非常好的例子，
07:18
is a very important case of how to move around
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展现了公共交通如何在城市内实现安全、快捷、无污染：
07:20
safely and quickly in a non-polluting way
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07:23
in a city: very frequent buses,
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高频次公交车、
07:26
strongly protected routes, the same service, really,
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全封闭专用道，
这真的跟地铁是一样的服务，
07:29
as an underground railway system,
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07:31
but much, much cheaper
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但便宜得多。
07:33
and can be done much more quickly,
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而且这项政策可在短时间内实现。
07:35
a brilliant idea in many more cities
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目前世界上很多城市都在仿效这个绝佳的主意。
07:37
around the world that's developing.
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07:39
Now, some things in cities do take time.
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对于城市而言，一些事情确实要耗时良久，
07:41
Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.
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但有些能更快地实现。
07:44
Take my hometown, London.
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以我的家乡伦敦为例。
07:46
In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people
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1952年，4000人在伦敦因烟雾丧生，
07:52
and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.
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更多更多的人的身体因烟雾而受到严重损伤。
07:54
And it happened all the time.
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烟雾事件频频发生。
07:56
For those of you live outside London in the U.K.
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那些不在伦敦住的英国人
07:58
will remember it used to be called The Smoke.
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都知道伦敦过去被称为“雾都”。
08:00
That's the way London was.
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这就是伦敦的情况。
08:02
By regulating coal, within a few years
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但通过管控燃煤，几年之内，
08:04
the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.
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烟雾问题得到极大改善。
08:07
I remember the smogs well.
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我记得烟雾的样子，
08:09
When the visibility dropped to [less] than
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当能见度降到几米以内，
08:11
a few meters,
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公交车辆无法行驶，我不得不下车行走，
08:13
they stopped the buses and I had to walk.
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08:15
This was the 1950s.
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这是上世纪五十年代。
08:17
I had to walk home three miles from school.
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从学校到家，我不得不步行三英里。
08:21
Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.
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还有，呼吸是一件危险活动。
08:25
But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.
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但这已经改变了，由一项决策而变。
08:27
Good decisions can bring good results,
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好的决策会在短时间内显著地带来良好的效果。
08:31
striking results, quickly.
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我们已经看到了更多的决策：在伦敦，引入拥堵费政策，
08:33
We've seen more: In London, we've
introduced the congestion charge,
introduced the congestion charge,
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08:36
actually quite quickly and effectively,
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这真的是立竿见影，
08:39
and we've seen great improvements
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我们看到这项决策极大程度地改善公交系统，
08:40
in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.
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并让公交系统变得清洁友好。
08:44
You can see that the two
transformations I've described,
transformations I've described,
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你们可以看到，我所描述的两项变革——结构和气候，
08:47
the structural and the climate,
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08:49
come very much together.
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可以相辅相成。
08:52
But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,
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但我们不得不投资，在我们的城市里投资，
08:55
and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,
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而且我们必须明智地投资，如果我们做到了，
08:57
we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,
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我们将看到更清洁的、更安静、更安全的城市，
09:02
more attractive cities, more productive cities,
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更有吸引力、更有效率的城市，
09:05
and stronger community in those cities —
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城市中也会有更完善的社区——
09:07
public transport, recycling, reusing,
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公共交通、废物回收利用，
09:10
all sorts of things that bring communities together.
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所有的付出都会促进社区的发展。
09:14
We can do that, but we have to think,
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我们可以实现，但我们要思考，
09:16
we have to invest, we have to plan.
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要投资，要做计划。
09:18
Let me turn to energy.
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我们再说能源。
09:20
Now, energy over the last 25 years
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过去25年间，能源的消耗增加了50%，
09:23
has increased by about 50 percent.
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09:25
Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.
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其中80%的来自化石燃料。
09:28
Over the next 20 years,
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在未来20年内，
09:30
perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.
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也许还会增加40%左右。
09:34
We have to invest strongly in energy,
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我们必须加大对能源的投资力度、
09:36
we have to use it much more efficiently,
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更有效地利用能源、
09:39
and we have to make it clean.
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使用更多的清洁能源。
09:41
We can see how to do that.
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我们来看如何实现，
09:42
Take the example of California.
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以加利福尼亚为例。
09:44
It would be in the top 10 countries in the world
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如果加州独立的话，
09:47
if it was independent.
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它的经济总量排名将在世界前十，
09:49
I don't want to start any —
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我不想引发任何——
09:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:55
California's a big place.
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加州“幅员辽阔”。
09:57
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:59
In the next five or six years,
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在未来五到六年，
10:02
they will likely move from
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加州所使用的清洁能源——风能，太阳能等——的比例
10:05
around 20 percent in renewables —
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将从20%左右上升至33%以上，
10:07
wind, solar and so on —
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10:09
to over 33 percent,
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10:11
and that would bring California back
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这样的结果是，到2020年，
10:14
to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020
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加州的温室气体排放量将回落至1990年的水平，
10:16
to where they were in 1990,
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1957
10:18
a period when the economy in California
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而相对1990年，到2020年时，
10:20
would more or less have doubled.
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加州的经济总量将翻番。
10:21
That's a striking achievement.
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这真是丰功伟业。
10:23
It shows what can be done.
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事实已证明这是可以实现的。
10:24
Not just California — the
incoming government of India
incoming government of India
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不仅是加州，印度新一届政府
10:28
is planning to get solar technology
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3026
正计划将太阳能送入民众家，
10:31
to light up the homes
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用于照明，
10:32
of 400 million people
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受惠的民众达4亿，
10:34
who don't have electricity in India.
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这些家庭目前没有电力供应。
10:36
They've set themselves a target of five years.
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他们已给自己制定了五年期目标，
10:38
I think they've got a good chance of doing that.
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我认为实现这一目标的前景乐观，
10:42
We'll see, but what you're seeing now
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我们会见证的。
如今，我们已经看到人们在尤为积极地行动着，
10:44
is people moving much more quickly.
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10:46
Four hundred million, more than the population
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4亿民众啊，这比美国人口都多。
10:48
of the United States.
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10:50
Those are the kinds of ambitions now
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这正是人们为迅速变革而许下的雄心壮志。
10:52
people are setting themselves
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10:54
in terms of rapidity of change.
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10:59
Again, you can see
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1970
再次强调，你们可以看到，
11:01
good decisions can bring quick results,
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1781
好的决策会迅速看到成效，
11:02
and those two transformations,
the economy and the structure
the economy and the structure
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3033
另外，经济结构和气候、低碳这两项变革相辅相成。
11:05
and the climate and the low carbon,
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1991
11:07
are intimately intertwined.
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2543
11:10
Do the first one well, the structural,
255
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1822
如果前者，即经济变革进行顺利，
11:12
the second one on the climate
256
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1981
那气候变革也会容易许多。
11:14
becomes much easier.
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3182
11:17
Look at land,
258
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1789
我们再来看土地，
11:19
land and particularly forests.
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土地，尤其是森林。
11:21
Forests are the hosts to valuable
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森林是孕育珍贵动植物的地方，
11:24
plant and animal species.
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11:27
They hold water in the soil
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森林有助于土壤蓄水，
11:29
and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,
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并吸收大气中的二氧化碳，
11:32
fundamental to the tackling of climate change.
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森林是气候变化的关键所在。
11:35
But we're losing our forests.
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2232
但森林在逐渐消失。
11:37
In the last decade, we've lost a forest area
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2827
过去的十年内，
消失的森林的面积相当于葡萄牙的国土面积，
11:40
the size of Portugal,
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2143
11:42
and much more has been degraded.
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有更大面积的森林在退化。
11:45
But we're already seeing
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1755
但我们已知道，
11:47
that we can do so much about that.
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2407
我们可以为之做很多努力。
11:49
We can recognize the problem, but we can also
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我们能发现问题，我们知道如何解决问题。
11:51
understand how to tackle it.
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11:53
In Brazil, the rate of deforestation
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在巴西，过去的十年内，森林滥砍滥伐的速度已降低70%，
11:56
has been reduced by 70 percent
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2017
11:58
over the last 10 years.
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2562
12:00
How? By involving local communities,
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如何实现的？
通过联合当地的社区，投资农业和经济，
12:03
investing in their agriculture and their economies,
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更严密地管控，更严格地实施法律。
12:06
by monitoring more carefully,
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2100
12:08
by enforcing the law more strictly.
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3645
12:12
And it's not just stopping deforestation.
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带来的效益不只是阻止了滥砍滥伐。
12:14
That's of course of first and fundamental importance,
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当然阻止滥砍滥伐是最重要的，
12:16
but it's also regrading degraded land,
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3622
但这些举措也造福了退化的土地，
12:20
regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.
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让这些土地再生，重新变得可以利用。
12:24
I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.
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我1967年第一次去埃塞俄比亚，
12:28
It was desperately poor. In the following years,
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当地的穷困令人绝望。在接下来的几年，
12:31
it suffered devastating famines
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埃塞俄比亚经历了严重的饥荒和破坏性极强的社会动乱。
12:32
and profoundly destructive social conflict.
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12:36
Over the last few years, actually more than a few,
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过去几年，事实上不止几年，
12:39
Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.
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埃塞俄比亚发展飞快，
12:42
It has ambitions to be a middle-income country
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1890
决心要在15年后成为中等收入的国家，
12:44
15 years from now
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并达到碳平衡。
12:46
and to be carbon neutral.
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2243
12:49
Again, I think it's a strong ambition
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再次强调，我认为这是雄心壮志，
12:52
but it is a plausible one.
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但是可以实现。
12:54
You're seeing that commitment there.
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你们看到了他们的承诺，你们看到了是什么可以实现。
12:55
You're seeing what can be done.
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12:57
Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.
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埃塞俄比亚正投资清洁能源，
12:59
It's working in the rehabilitation of land.
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致力于土地再生。
13:03
In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,
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在埃塞俄比亚西南部Humbo市，
13:05
a wonderful project
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一项绝佳的项目显著地提升了居民生活水平，
13:07
to plant trees on degraded land
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13:09
and work with local communities
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1620
该项目一方面在退化土地上种植树木，
13:11
on sustainable forest management
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另一方面与当地社区合作，致力于森林可持续发展管理。
13:13
has led to big increases in living standards.
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13:16
So we can see, from Beijing to London,
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3864
所以我们可以看到，从北京到伦敦，
13:20
from California to India,
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2289
从加州到印度，
13:22
from Brazil to Ethiopia,
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从巴西到埃塞俄比亚，
13:25
we do understand
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我们确实明白，
13:27
how to manage those two transformations,
309
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2205
如何进行这两项变革——结构和气候。
13:29
the structural and the climate.
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1929
13:31
We do understand how to manage those well.
311
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我们确实明白如何有效地进行。
13:35
And technology is changing very rapidly.
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技术发展日新月异，
13:38
I don't have to list all those things
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我不必向你们列举出全部的技术革新，
13:40
to an audience like this,
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1891
13:42
but you can see the electric cars,
315
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2294
你们可以看到电动汽车，
13:45
you can see the batteries using new materials.
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3084
你们可以看到利用新材料的电池，
13:48
You can see that we can manage remotely now
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2395
你们可以看到如今当我们出门在外时，
13:50
our household appliances on our
mobile phones when we're away.
mobile phones when we're away.
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3555
能用手机远程控制家里的电器，
13:54
You can see better insulation.
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1807
你们可以看到更好的隔热材料。
13:55
And there's much more coming.
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1923
而且，远远不止这些。
13:57
But, and it's a big but,
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但是，严重的问题在于，
14:00
the world as a whole
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1609
世界作为一个整体的革新速度太慢了。
14:01
is moving far too slowly.
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2778
14:04
We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.
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2542
我们没有按照应有的方式减少排放，
14:07
We're not managing those structural transformations
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2711
我们没有尽我们所能开展结构变革。
14:09
as we can.
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2229
14:12
The depth of understanding of the
immense risks of climate change
immense risks of climate change
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3239
气候变化潜在的巨大风险还没有被人们充分地认识，
14:15
are not there yet.
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3579
14:18
The depth of understanding
329
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2131
我们能付出的努力的意义还没有被人们充分地理解。
14:21
of the attractiveness of what we can do
330
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14:23
is not there yet.
331
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3664
14:27
We need political pressure to build.
332
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政治压力需要施加，
14:30
We need leaders to step up.
333
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3532
领导者需要站出来，
14:34
We can have better growth,
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我们才会让世界获得更好的发展、
14:37
better climate, a better world.
335
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拥有更好的气候和更美好的地球。
14:41
We can make,
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1812
通过有效地进行这两项变革，
14:43
by managing those two transformations well,
337
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2780
14:46
the next 100 years the best of centuries.
338
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4288
我们可以让下一个100年成为最好的世纪。
14:50
If we make a mess of it,
339
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1227
如果我们做得不好，
14:52
we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,
340
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3147
我们，你和我，如果做得不好，
14:55
if we don't manage those transformations properly,
341
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2473
如果我们没有有效地进行这两项变革，
14:57
it will be, the next 100 years
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2891
下一个100年将成为最糟糕的世纪。
15:00
will be the worst of centuries.
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15:03
That's the major conclusion
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以上就是经济和气候研究报告的重要结论，
15:05
of the report on the economy and climate
345
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3131
该研究报告由墨西哥前总统费利佩·卡尔德龙
15:08
chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,
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3869
15:12
and I co-chaired that with him,
347
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2180
和我共同牵头。
15:14
and we handed that report yesterday
348
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1953
昨天在纽约的联合国大厦，
15:16
here in New York, in the United Nations Building
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我们将这份报告呈交联合国秘书长潘基文。
15:19
to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,
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1472
15:20
Ban Ki-moon.
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1266
15:22
We know that we can do this.
352
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4105
我们知道可以实现目标。
15:26
Now, two weeks ago,
353
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3382
两周前，
15:29
I became a grandfather for the fourth time.
354
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3400
我第四次成为祖父，
15:32
Our daughter —
355
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2132
我的女儿——
15:35
(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —
356
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10603
（婴儿哭声）（笑声）（掌声）——
15:45
Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York
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2911
两周前，我的女儿在纽约生了罗斯，
15:48
two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.
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3005
欢迎海伦和罗斯。
15:51
(Applause)
359
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4489
（掌声）
15:58
Two weeks old.
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2968
罗斯只有两周大，
16:01
Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye
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我们会看着孙辈的眼睛，
16:07
and tell them that we understood the issues,
362
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3747
告诉他们我们理解了世界的问题所在，
16:11
that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,
363
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3318
意识到了危险和机会所在，
16:14
and still we failed to act?
364
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4241
但依然没能行动？
16:18
Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years
365
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3479
当然不会，让我们一起将下一个100年变成最好的世纪。
16:22
the best of centuries.
366
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（掌声）
16:24
(Applause)
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4000
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nicholas Stern - Climate economistLord Nicholas Stern studies the economics of climate change. He is a co-author of the position paper presented to the UN's 2014 Climate Summit, called "The New Climate Economy."
Why you should listen
Lord Nicholas Stern is the author of the seminal 2006 Review on the Economics of Climate Change, one of the most influential papers discussing the real economic implications of addressing (or not addressing) climate. The former Chief Economist at the World Bank, Lord Nicholas is now the IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics and Chairman of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. Since 2013, he has been President of the British Academy. His research and publications have focused on the economics of climate change, economic development and growth, economic theory, tax reform, public policy and the role of the state and economies in transition.
In 2014, as part of a commission chaired by Felipe Calderon, Lord Nicholas helped produce a report titled "The New Climate Economy," laying out an economic plan for countering climate change.
Nicholas Stern | Speaker | TED.com