TEDxMidAtlantic
Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
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We increasingly make decisions based on short-term goals and gains -- an approach that makes the future more uncertain and less safe. How can we learn to think about and plan for a better future in the long term ... like, grandchildren-scale long term? Ari Wallach shares three tactics for thinking beyond the immediate.
Ari Wallach - Futurist
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I've been "futuring,"
which is a term I made up --
which is a term I made up --
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(Laughter)
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about three seconds ago.
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I've been futuring for about 20 years,
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and when I first started,
I would sit down with people,
I would sit down with people,
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and say, "Hey,
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
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And they'd say, "Great."
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And I've been seeing that time horizon
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get shorter and shorter
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and shorter,
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so much so that I met
with a CEO two months ago
with a CEO two months ago
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and I said -- we started
our initial conversation.
our initial conversation.
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He goes, "I love what you do.
I want to talk about the next six months."
I want to talk about the next six months."
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00:45
(Laughter)
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We have a lot of problems
that we are facing.
that we are facing.
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These are civilizational-scale problems.
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The issue though is,
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we can't solve them
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using the mental models
that we use right now
that we use right now
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to try and solve these problems.
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Yes, a lot of great
technical work is being done,
technical work is being done,
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but there is a problem that
we need to solve for a priori, before,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
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if we want to really
move the needle on those big problems.
move the needle on those big problems.
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"Short-termism."
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Right? There's no marches.
There's no bracelets.
There's no bracelets.
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There's no petitions that you can sign
to be against short-termism.
to be against short-termism.
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I tried to put one up, and no one signed.
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It was weird.
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(Laughter)
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But it prevents us from doing so much.
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Short-termism, for many reasons,
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has pervaded every
nook and cranny of our reality.
nook and cranny of our reality.
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I just want you to take a second
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and just think about an issue
that you're thinking, working on.
that you're thinking, working on.
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It could be personal, it could be at work
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or it could be
move-the-needle world stuff,
move-the-needle world stuff,
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and think about
how far out you tend to think
how far out you tend to think
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about the solution set for that.
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Because short-termism prevents the CEO
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from buying really
expensive safety equipment.
expensive safety equipment.
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It'll hurt the bottom line.
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So we get the Deepwater Horizon.
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Short-termism prevents teachers
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from spending quality
one-on-one time with their students.
one-on-one time with their students.
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So right now in America,
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a high school student
drops out every 26 seconds.
drops out every 26 seconds.
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Short-termism prevents Congress --
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sorry if there's anyone
in here from Congress --
in here from Congress --
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(Laughter)
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or not really that sorry --
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(Laughter)
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from putting money
into a real infrastructure bill.
into a real infrastructure bill.
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So what we get
is the I-35W bridge collapse
is the I-35W bridge collapse
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over the Mississippi a few years ago,
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13 killed.
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It wasn't always like this.
We did the Panama Canal.
We did the Panama Canal.
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We pretty much
have eradicated global polio.
have eradicated global polio.
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We did the transcontinental railroad,
the Marshall Plan.
the Marshall Plan.
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And it's not just big, physical
infrastructure problems and issues.
infrastructure problems and issues.
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Women's suffrage, the right to vote.
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But in our short-termist time,
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where everything seems to happen right now
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and we can only think out
past the next tweet or timeline post,
past the next tweet or timeline post,
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we get hyper-reactionary.
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So what do we do?
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We take people who are fleeing
their war-torn country,
their war-torn country,
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and we go after them.
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We take low-level drug offenders,
and we put them away for life.
and we put them away for life.
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And then we build McMansions
without even thinking
without even thinking
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about how people are going
to get between them and their job.
to get between them and their job.
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It's a quick buck.
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Now, the reality is,
for a lot of these problems,
for a lot of these problems,
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there are some technical fixes,
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a lot of them.
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I call these technical fixes
sandbag strategies.
sandbag strategies.
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So you know there's a storm coming,
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the levee is broken,
no one's put any money into it,
no one's put any money into it,
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you surround your home with sandbags.
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And guess what? It works.
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Storm goes away,
the water level goes down,
the water level goes down,
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you get rid of the sandbags,
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and you do this storm
after storm after storm.
after storm after storm.
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And here's the insidious thing.
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A sandbag strategy
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can get you reelected.
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A sandbag strategy
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can help you make your quarterly numbers.
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Now, if we want to move forward
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into a different future
than the one we have right now,
than the one we have right now,
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because I don't think we've hit --
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2016 is not peak civilization.
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(Laughter)
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There's some more we can do.
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04:19
But my argument is that unless we shift
our mental models and our mental maps
our mental models and our mental maps
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on how we think about the short,
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it's not going to happen.
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So what I've developed
is something called "longpath,"
is something called "longpath,"
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and it's a practice.
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And longpath isn't
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
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I'm sure everyone here
at some point has done an off-site
at some point has done an off-site
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with a lot of Post-It notes
and whiteboards,
and whiteboards,
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and you do --
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no offense to the consultants
in here who do that --
in here who do that --
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and you do a long-term plan,
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and then two weeks later,
everyone forgets about it.
everyone forgets about it.
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Right? Or a week later.
If you're lucky, three months.
If you're lucky, three months.
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It's a practice because
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
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It's a process where you have
to revisit different ways of thinking
to revisit different ways of thinking
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for every major decision
that you're working on.
that you're working on.
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So I want to go through
those three ways of thinking.
those three ways of thinking.
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So the first: transgenerational thinking.
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I love the philosophers:
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Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.
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I was raised on them.
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But they all did one thing
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that didn't actually seem like a big deal
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until I really started
kind of looking into this.
kind of looking into this.
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And they all took,
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as a unit of measure
for their entire reality
for their entire reality
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of what it meant to be virtuous and good,
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the single lifespan,
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from birth to death.
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But here's a problem with these issues:
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they stack up on top of us,
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because the only way we know
how to do something good in the world
how to do something good in the world
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is if we do it between
our birth and our death.
our birth and our death.
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That's what we're programmed to do.
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If you go to the self-help section
in any bookstore,
in any bookstore,
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it's all about you.
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Which is great,
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unless you're dealing
with some of these major issues.
with some of these major issues.
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And so with transgenerational thinking,
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which is really kind of
transgenerational ethics,
transgenerational ethics,
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you're able to expand
how you think about these problems,
how you think about these problems,
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what is your role
in helping to solve them.
in helping to solve them.
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Now, this isn't something that just has to
be done at the Security Council chamber.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
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It's something that you can do
in a very kind of personal way.
in a very kind of personal way.
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So every once in a while, if I'm lucky,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
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and we have three children
under the age of seven.
under the age of seven.
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So you can imagine
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
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(Laughter)
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So we sit down and literally
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
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and my kids have a completely
and totally different idea
and totally different idea
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of what we're going to be doing.
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And so my first idea
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is my sandbag strategy, right?
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It's to go into my pocket
and take out the iPhone
and take out the iPhone
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and give them "Frozen"
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or some other bestselling game thing.
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And then I stop
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and I have to kind of put on
this transgenerational thinking cap.
this transgenerational thinking cap.
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I don't do this in the restaurant,
because it would be bizarre,
because it would be bizarre,
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but I have to --
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I did it once, and that's how
I learned it was bizarre.
I learned it was bizarre.
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(Laughter)
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And you have to kind of think,
"OK, I can do this."
"OK, I can do this."
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But what is this teaching them?
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So what does it mean
if I actually bring some paper
if I actually bring some paper
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or engage with them in conversation?
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It's hard. It's not easy,
and I'm making this very personal.
and I'm making this very personal.
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It's actually more traumatic
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than some of the big issues
that I work on in the world --
that I work on in the world --
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entertaining my kids at dinner.
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But what it does is it connects them
here in the present with me,
here in the present with me,
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but it also --
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and this is the crux
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
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it sets them up to how they're
going to interact with their kids
going to interact with their kids
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and their kids and their kids.
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Second, futures thinking.
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When we think about the future,
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10, 15 years out,
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give me a vision of what the future is.
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You don't have to give it to me,
but think in your head.
but think in your head.
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And what you're probably going to see
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is the dominant cultural lens
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that dominates our thinking
about the future right now:
about the future right now:
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technology.
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So when we think about the problems,
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we always put it through
a technological lens,
a technological lens,
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a tech-centric, a techno-utopia,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
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but it's something that we have to
really think deeply about
really think deeply about
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if we're going to move
on these major issues,
on these major issues,
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because it wasn't always like this. Right?
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The ancients had their way of thinking
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about what the future was.
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The Church definitely had their idea
of what the future could be,
of what the future could be,
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and you could actually pay your way
into that future. Right?
into that future. Right?
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And luckily for humanity,
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we got the scientific revolution.
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From there, we got the technology,
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but what has happened --
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And by the way, this is not a critique.
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I love technology.
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Everything in my house talks back to me,
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from my children
to my speakers to everything.
to my speakers to everything.
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(Laughter)
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But we've abdicated the future
from the high priests in Rome
from the high priests in Rome
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to the high priests of Silicon Valley.
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So when we think, well,
how are we going to deal with climate
how are we going to deal with climate
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or with poverty or homelessness,
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our first reaction is to think about it
through a technology lens.
through a technology lens.
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And look, I'm not advocating
that we go to this guy.
that we go to this guy.
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I love Joel, don't get me wrong,
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but I'm not saying we go to Joel.
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What I'm saying is we have to rethink
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our base assumption about
only looking at the future in one way,
only looking at the future in one way,
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only looking at it
through the dominant lens.
through the dominant lens.
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Because our problems
are so big and so vast
are so big and so vast
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that we need to open ourselves up.
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So that's why I do everything in my power
not to talk about the future.
not to talk about the future.
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I talk about futures.
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It opens the conversation again.
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So when you're sitting and thinking
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about how do we move forward
on this major issue --
on this major issue --
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it could be at home,
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it could be at work,
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it could be again on the global stage --
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don't cut yourself off from thinking
about something beyond technology as a fix
about something beyond technology as a fix
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because we're more concerned
about technological evolution right now
about technological evolution right now
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than we are about moral evolution.
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And unless we fix for that,
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we're not going to be able
to get out of short-termism
to get out of short-termism
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and get to where we want to be.
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The final, telos thinking.
This comes from the Greek root.
This comes from the Greek root.
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Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.
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And it's really asking one question:
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to what end?
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When was the last time
you asked yourself: To what end?
you asked yourself: To what end?
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And when you asked yourself that,
how far out did you go?
how far out did you go?
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Because long isn't long enough anymore.
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Three, five years doesn't cut it.
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It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
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In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"
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Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."
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It was Ithaca.
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It was this bold vision
of what he wanted --
of what he wanted --
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to return to Penelope.
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And I can tell you,
because of the work that I'm doing,
because of the work that I'm doing,
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but also you know it intuitively --
we have lost our Ithaca.
we have lost our Ithaca.
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We have lost our "to what end,"
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
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And yes, we're trying
to solve these problems,
to solve these problems,
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but what comes after we solve the problem?
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And unless you define what comes after,
people aren't going to move.
people aren't going to move.
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The businesses --
this isn't just about business --
this isn't just about business --
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but the businesses that do consistently,
who break out of short-termism
who break out of short-termism
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not surprisingly
are family-run businesses.
are family-run businesses.
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They're transgenerational. They're telos.
They think about the futures.
They think about the futures.
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And this is an ad for Patek Philippe.
They're 175 years old,
They're 175 years old,
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and what's amazing
is that they literally embody
is that they literally embody
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this kind of longpathian sense
in their brand,
in their brand,
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because, by the way,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
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and I definitely won't --
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(Laughter)
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unless somebody wants to just
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
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You merely look after it
for the next generation.
for the next generation.
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So it's important that we remember,
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the future, we treat it like a noun.
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It's not. It's a verb.
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It requires action.
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It requires us to push into it.
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It's not this thing that washes over us.
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It's something that we
actually have total control over.
actually have total control over.
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But in a short-term society,
we end up feeling like we don't.
we end up feeling like we don't.
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We feel like we're trapped.
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We can push through that.
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Now I'm getting more comfortable
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in the fact that at some point
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in the inevitable future,
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I will die.
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But because of these new ways
of thinking and doing,
of thinking and doing,
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both in the outside world
and also with my family at home,
and also with my family at home,
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and what I'm leaving my kids,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
I get more comfortable in that fact.
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And it's something that a lot of us
are really uncomfortable with,
are really uncomfortable with,
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but I'm telling you,
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think it through.
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Apply this type of thinking
and you can push yourself past
and you can push yourself past
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what's inevitably
very, very uncomfortable.
very, very uncomfortable.
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And it all begins really
with yourself asking this question:
with yourself asking this question:
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What is your longpath?
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But I ask you, when you ask yourself that
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now or tonight or behind a steering wheel
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or in the boardroom or the situation room:
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push past the longpath,
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quick, oh, what's my longpath
the next three years or five years?
the next three years or five years?
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Try and push past your own life if you can
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because it makes you do things
a little bit bigger
a little bit bigger
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than you thought were possible.
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Yes, we have huge,
huge problems out there.
huge problems out there.
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With this process, with this thinking,
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I think we can make a difference.
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I think you can make a difference,
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and I believe in you guys.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com