Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
Ari Wallach: Três maneiras de se planejar para o longo prazo
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
which is a term I made up --
que é um termo que inventei
I would sit down with people,
eu me sentava com as pessoas
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
sobre daqui a 10, 20 anos".
with a CEO two months ago
ao encontrar com um diretor executivo,
our initial conversation.
I want to talk about the next six months."
Quero falar sobre o próximo semestre".
that we are facing.
that we use right now
que usamos atualmente.
excelentes estão sendo feitos,
technical work is being done,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
consertar antes de tudo,
move the needle on those big problems.
a diferença nesses problemas:
There's no bracelets.
to be against short-termism.
contra a visão de curto prazo.
nook and cranny of our reality.
as partes da nossa realidade.
that you're thinking, working on.
no qual você está trabalhando.
move-the-needle world stuff,
how far out you tend to think
a solução posta para isso.
impede um diretor executivo
expensive safety equipment.
de segurança muito caros.
one-on-one time with their students.
de qualidade aos seus alunos.
drops out every 26 seconds.
desiste da escola a cada 26 segundos.
in here from Congress --
do Congresso aqui,
into a real infrastructure bill.
de infraestrutura de verdade.
is the I-35W bridge collapse
no Mississipi, alguns anos atrás.
We did the Panama Canal.
Nós fizemos o Canal do Panamá.
have eradicated global polio.
the Marshall Plan.
infrastructure problems and issues.
problemas de infraestrutura.
past the next tweet or timeline post,
ou publicação na linha do tempo,
their war-torn country,
destruídos pelas guerras,
and we put them away for life.
usuários de droga de baixo risco.
without even thinking
chegarão em seus trabalhos.
to get between them and their job.
para muitos desses problemas,
for a lot of these problems,
sandbag strategies.
de estratégias de saco de areia.
no one's put any money into it,
você cerca a casa com sacos de areia.
você retira os sacos de areia.
the water level goes down,
nas próximas tempestades.
after storm after storm.
than the one we have right now,
do que temos agora,
our mental models and our mental maps
nossos modelos e mapas mentais
is something called "longpath,"
de "planos de longo alcance",
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
at some point has done an off-site
aqui já fez um planejamento
and whiteboards,
e quadros brancos,
in here who do that --
aqui que fazem isso.
e, em duas semanas, você o esquece.
everyone forgets about it.
If you're lucky, three months.
Se você tem sorte, três meses.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
necessariamente uma coisa que você faz.
to revisit different ways of thinking
de reavaliar diferentes jeitos de pensar
that you're working on.
those three ways of thinking.
sobre três desses jeitos.
até que comecei a investigar fundo.
kind of looking into this.
for their entire reality
eles se acumulam sobre nós
how to do something good in the world
nosso nascimento e morte.
our birth and our death.
de autoajuda de uma livraria,
in any bookstore,
with some of these major issues.
com grandes problemas.
transgenerational ethics,
how you think about these problems,
como pensa sobre esses problemas,
in helping to solve them.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
no Conselho de Segurança.
de uma maneira bem pessoal.
in a very kind of personal way.
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
minha mulher e eu saímos para jantar.
under the age of seven.
com menos de sete anos.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
tranquilo e em paz.
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
é comer e relaxar,
and totally different idea
totalmente errado o que vamos fazer.
a estratégia do saco de areia, certo?
and take out the iPhone
this transgenerational thinking cap.
de boné do pensamento transgeracional.
because it would be bizarre,
porque seria bizarro.
I learned it was bizarre.
"OK, I can do this."
"Certo, eu posso fazer isso.
if I actually bring some paper
ou conversar com eles?
and I'm making this very personal.
mundiais nos quais trabalhei:
that I work on in the world --
comigo, aqui no presente,
here in the present with me,
do pensamento da ética transgeracional,
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
going to interact with their kids
com seus futuros filhos
but think in your head.
é uma lente cultural
sobre o futuro atualmente:
about the future right now:
sempre usamos uma lente tecnológica,
a technological lens,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
e não tem nada de errado nisso,
really think deeply about
on these major issues,
tinha sua maneira de pensar
of what the future could be,
de como o futuro poderia ser,
into that future. Right?
participar desse futuro, certo?
mas o que tem acontecido...
meus filhos, minha caixa de som, tudo.
to my speakers to everything.
from the high priests in Rome
dos sumos sacerdotes de Roma
do Vale do Silício.
how are we going to deal with climate
sobre como lidaremos com clima,
through a technology lens.
é usar uma lente tecnológica.
that we go to this guy.
que recorrer a este cara.
nossa suposição básica
only looking at the future in one way,
através das lentes dominantes.
through the dominant lens.
are so big and so vast
not to talk about the future.
para não falar de um único futuro.
como avançaremos nessa grande questão:
on this major issue --
about something beyond technology as a fix
além da tecnologia como uma solução,
about technological evolution right now
com evolução tecnológica
to get out of short-termism
de curto prazo e ir para onde queremos ir.
This comes from the Greek root.
e significa objetivo e propósito finais.
you asked yourself: To what end?
se perguntou: "Até que ponto?"
how far out did you go?
até onde você conseguiu chegar?
como longo não é mais suficiente.
para o "até que ponto".
of what he wanted --
retornar para Penélope.
because of the work that I'm doing,
do trabalho que faço,
que nós perdemos a nossa Ítaca.
we have lost our Ithaca.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
então ficamos numa roda de hamster.
to solve these problems,
resolver os problemas,
quando conseguirmos?
people aren't going to move.
depois, as pessoas não vão se mover.
this isn't just about business --
who break out of short-termism
que superam a visão de curto prazo,
are family-run businesses.
They think about the futures.
eles pensam sobre os futuros.
They're 175 years old,
esta empresa têm 175 anos,
is that they literally embody
in their brand,
alcance na sua marca.
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
um relógio desse; eu jamais terei.
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
US$ 25 mil no palco.
for the next generation.
para a próxima geração.
mas sim que controlamos totalmente.
actually have total control over.
sentimo-nos impotentes, encurralados.
we end up feeling like we don't.
of thinking and doing,
de pensar e de fazer,
and also with my family at home,
quanto em casa com minha família,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
mais confortável com esse fato.
are really uncomfortable with,
de nós desconfortáveis,
and you can push yourself past
e você poderá ir além
very, very uncomfortable.
with yourself asking this question:
ou na sala de situações,
the next three years or five years?
para os próximos três, cinco anos?
a little bit bigger
um pouco maiores
huge problems out there.
com esse pensamento
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com