TEDxMidAtlantic
Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
阿里‧沃拉克: 三個方法制訂（非常）長期的計劃
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我們在愈來愈多時候基於短期目標和得益作出決策 ——這是一種令未來變得不確定和不安全的處事方式。我們可以怎樣學會思考並計劃更美好的長遠未來──遠至孫兒那一代的未來？阿里‧沃拉克分享三種超越當下思考的策略。
Ari Wallach - Futurist
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I've been "futuring,"
which is a term I made up --
which is a term I made up --
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我一直在「未來」著。
這是我發明的詞彙──
這是我發明的詞彙──
（笑聲）
00:16
(Laughter)
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大約三秒前想到的。
00:17
about three seconds ago.
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00:18
I've been futuring for about 20 years,
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我一直在「未來」著 20 年後的事；
00:21
and when I first started,
I would sit down with people,
I would sit down with people,
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我開始這樣做時，
我會坐在別人身旁，
我會坐在別人身旁，
說：「嗨，我們不如談談 10 年、
20 年後的事。」
20 年後的事。」
00:24
and say, "Hey,
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
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他們都說：「好啊。」
00:27
And they'd say, "Great."
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00:29
And I've been seeing that time horizon
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此後我就一直見到時間範圍
變得愈來愈短，愈來愈短，
變得愈來愈短，愈來愈短，
00:32
get shorter and shorter
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00:34
and shorter,
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甚至在兩個月前我跟
一名執行長見面時也見到。
一名執行長見面時也見到。
00:35
so much so that I met
with a CEO two months ago
with a CEO two months ago
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00:39
and I said -- we started
our initial conversation.
our initial conversation.
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我們開始初次對談後，
00:41
He goes, "I love what you do.
I want to talk about the next six months."
I want to talk about the next six months."
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他隨後說：「我喜歡你做的事情。
我想談談未來六個月的情況。」
我想談談未來六個月的情況。」
（笑聲）
00:45
(Laughter)
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00:48
We have a lot of problems
that we are facing.
that we are facing.
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我們面對很多問題。
這些都是文明規模的問題。
00:51
These are civilizational-scale problems.
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00:55
The issue though is,
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但問題在於，
00:57
we can't solve them
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我們無法利用目前使用的心智模式
去嘗試解決這些問題。
去嘗試解決這些問題。
00:59
using the mental models
that we use right now
that we use right now
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01:01
to try and solve these problems.
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沒錯，很多出色的技術性工作
在進行中，
在進行中，
01:03
Yes, a lot of great
technical work is being done,
technical work is being done,
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但問題在於如果我們
真的要使事情明顯改變，
真的要使事情明顯改變，
01:06
but there is a problem that
we need to solve for a priori, before,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
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01:11
if we want to really
move the needle on those big problems.
move the needle on those big problems.
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我們就需要採用
先驗方式去解決問題。
先驗方式去解決問題。
01:15
"Short-termism."
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「短期主義」。
對吧﹖沒有任何遊行，
沒有任何示威。
沒有任何示威。
01:16
Right? There's no marches.
There's no bracelets.
There's no bracelets.
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沒有反對短期主義的請願讓你參加。
01:19
There's no petitions that you can sign
to be against short-termism.
to be against short-termism.
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01:23
I tried to put one up, and no one signed.
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我曾嘗試發起一場這樣的請願，
但沒有人參加。
但沒有人參加。
實在奇怪。
01:26
It was weird.
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（笑聲）
01:27
(Laughter)
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01:29
But it prevents us from doing so much.
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但它使我們避免做得太多。
短期主義因為種種原因
01:32
Short-termism, for many reasons,
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已經滲入現實中的每個角落。
01:35
has pervaded every
nook and cranny of our reality.
nook and cranny of our reality.
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01:37
I just want you to take a second
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我只想各位花一秒鐘，
01:39
and just think about an issue
that you're thinking, working on.
that you're thinking, working on.
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想想自己正在思考、處理甚麼問題。
它可以是個人的，
也可以是工作上的，
也可以是工作上的，
01:43
It could be personal, it could be at work
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也可以是明顯改變世界的事情，
01:45
or it could be
move-the-needle world stuff,
move-the-needle world stuff,
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01:47
and think about
how far out you tend to think
how far out you tend to think
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並想想自己在思考解決辦法時
通常會想到多遠。
通常會想到多遠。
01:49
about the solution set for that.
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01:53
Because short-termism prevents the CEO
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執行長因為短期主義
沒有購買非常昂貴的安全裝置。
01:58
from buying really
expensive safety equipment.
expensive safety equipment.
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02:01
It'll hurt the bottom line.
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購買了就會減損淨利潤。
所以我們有「深水地平線」
漏油事故。
漏油事故。
02:03
So we get the Deepwater Horizon.
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02:06
Short-termism prevents teachers
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教師因為短期主義
沒有用心的跟他們的學生
一對一相處。
一對一相處。
02:09
from spending quality
one-on-one time with their students.
one-on-one time with their students.
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02:12
So right now in America,
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所以在當今的美國，
02:14
a high school student
drops out every 26 seconds.
drops out every 26 seconds.
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每 26 秒就有一名高中學生輟學。
02:19
Short-termism prevents Congress --
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國會因為短期主義沒有……
如果在座有來自國會的人，很抱歉。
02:22
sorry if there's anyone
in here from Congress --
in here from Congress --
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02:24
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:26
or not really that sorry --
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其實不是很抱歉。
（笑聲）
02:28
(Laughter)
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沒有撥款到真正的基礎建設上，
02:30
from putting money
into a real infrastructure bill.
into a real infrastructure bill.
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02:33
So what we get
is the I-35W bridge collapse
is the I-35W bridge collapse
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所以我們見到數年前
在密西西比河上，
在密西西比河上，
02:36
over the Mississippi a few years ago,
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I-35W 大橋倒塌，造成 13 人死亡。
02:38
13 killed.
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02:40
It wasn't always like this.
We did the Panama Canal.
We did the Panama Canal.
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但情況並非一直如此。
我們開鑿了巴拿馬運河。
我們開鑿了巴拿馬運河。
02:44
We pretty much
have eradicated global polio.
have eradicated global polio.
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我們已經大致上消滅
全球的小兒麻痺症。
全球的小兒麻痺症。
我們興建了橫貫大陸鐵路、
落實了馬歇爾計劃。
落實了馬歇爾計劃。
02:46
We did the transcontinental railroad,
the Marshall Plan.
the Marshall Plan.
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02:50
And it's not just big, physical
infrastructure problems and issues.
infrastructure problems and issues.
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不只是關乎大型實體基建的問題。
02:54
Women's suffrage, the right to vote.
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女性投票權。
02:56
But in our short-termist time,
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但在我們的短期主義時代，
每樣事情都似乎在刻下發生，
02:59
where everything seems to happen right now
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我們只可以想到
下一條推文或動態時報貼文，
下一條推文或動態時報貼文，
03:02
and we can only think out
past the next tweet or timeline post,
past the next tweet or timeline post,
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03:06
we get hyper-reactionary.
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我們變得過度保守。
03:08
So what do we do?
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我們做了些甚麼﹖
03:10
We take people who are fleeing
their war-torn country,
their war-torn country,
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我們收容從戰亂國家逃亡來的人，
03:14
and we go after them.
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然後跟蹤他們。
我們收容低度吸毒者，
然後終身囚禁他們。
然後終身囚禁他們。
03:15
We take low-level drug offenders,
and we put them away for life.
and we put them away for life.
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03:19
And then we build McMansions
without even thinking
without even thinking
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我們像製作快餐般建造大量樓房，
03:21
about how people are going
to get between them and their job.
to get between them and their job.
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卻沒有考慮人們怎樣
在買房和工作之間取捨。
在買房和工作之間取捨。
都是為了賺快錢。
03:24
It's a quick buck.
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03:26
Now, the reality is,
for a lot of these problems,
for a lot of these problems,
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事實上，這些問題
很多都有技術性的解決辦法，
很多都有技術性的解決辦法，
03:29
there are some technical fixes,
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數之不盡。
03:31
a lot of them.
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我稱之為技術性解決沙包策略。
03:33
I call these technical fixes
sandbag strategies.
sandbag strategies.
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03:36
So you know there's a storm coming,
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你知道風暴正在來臨，
03:38
the levee is broken,
no one's put any money into it,
no one's put any money into it,
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沒有人在崩堤後投放任何資金，
你就在家的周圍擺放沙包。
03:41
you surround your home with sandbags.
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信不信由你，這是奏效的。
03:43
And guess what? It works.
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03:46
Storm goes away,
the water level goes down,
the water level goes down,
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風暴離開了，水位下降，
你就移走沙包，
03:48
you get rid of the sandbags,
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每次風暴過後都是這樣做。
03:50
and you do this storm
after storm after storm.
after storm after storm.
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03:53
And here's the insidious thing.
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陰險之處在於：
03:56
A sandbag strategy
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沙包策略
使你獲得連任。
03:58
can get you reelected.
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04:00
A sandbag strategy
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沙包策略
有助你報告季度業績。
04:01
can help you make your quarterly numbers.
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04:06
Now, if we want to move forward
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如果我們要往
跟現在情況不同的未來發展，
04:09
into a different future
than the one we have right now,
than the one we have right now,
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因為我不認為我們在 2016 年
04:12
because I don't think we've hit --
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已經到達文明的巔峰。
04:14
2016 is not peak civilization.
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（笑聲）
04:16
(Laughter)
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04:17
There's some more we can do.
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我們還有更多事情要做。
04:19
But my argument is that unless we shift
our mental models and our mental maps
our mental models and our mental maps
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但我的論點是：除非我們轉變
思考短期內發生的事情時
所採用的心智模式和心智地圖，
所採用的心智模式和心智地圖，
04:23
on how we think about the short,
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問題是解決不了的。
04:26
it's not going to happen.
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所以我發展出一套
我稱為「長途」的東西，
我稱為「長途」的東西，
04:28
So what I've developed
is something called "longpath,"
is something called "longpath,"
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04:31
and it's a practice.
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它是一種實務。
04:32
And longpath isn't
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
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「長途」不會是
做過一件事情一次後就不再做。
做過一件事情一次後就不再做。
04:36
I'm sure everyone here
at some point has done an off-site
at some point has done an off-site
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我肯定在座任何人
都曾經在辦公室以外場所開會，
都曾經在辦公室以外場所開會，
04:39
with a lot of Post-It notes
and whiteboards,
and whiteboards,
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用上很多告示貼和白板，
而各位都這樣做──
04:41
and you do --
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無意得罪有這樣做的顧問師──
04:44
no offense to the consultants
in here who do that --
in here who do that --
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04:46
and you do a long-term plan,
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各位制訂長期計劃，
04:48
and then two weeks later,
everyone forgets about it.
everyone forgets about it.
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在兩周後所有人都把它忘記。
04:52
Right? Or a week later.
If you're lucky, three months.
If you're lucky, three months.
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對吧？或者一周後就忘記，
在幸運的情況下三個月後才忘記。
在幸運的情況下三個月後才忘記。
04:56
It's a practice because
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
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它稱為實務，
因為它未必是你做的事情。
因為它未必是你做的事情。
它是一個檢討作出各項重大決定時
不同的思考方法的過程。
不同的思考方法的過程。
05:00
It's a process where you have
to revisit different ways of thinking
to revisit different ways of thinking
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05:04
for every major decision
that you're working on.
that you're working on.
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我希望逐一討論這三種思考方法。
05:06
So I want to go through
those three ways of thinking.
those three ways of thinking.
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05:09
So the first: transgenerational thinking.
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第一種：跨世代思考。
05:13
I love the philosophers:
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我喜歡哲學家：
柏拉圖、蘇格拉底、
哈伯馬斯、海德格。
哈伯馬斯、海德格。
05:15
Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.
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05:17
I was raised on them.
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他們陪著我長大。
05:20
But they all did one thing
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他們都做過同一件事，
而這件事在我尚未開始探討之前
05:22
that didn't actually seem like a big deal
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不像是非常重要。
05:24
until I really started
kind of looking into this.
kind of looking into this.
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05:26
And they all took,
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他們所有人在衡量整個現實世界裡
何謂道德和美善時，
何謂道德和美善時，
05:28
as a unit of measure
for their entire reality
for their entire reality
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05:31
of what it meant to be virtuous and good,
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05:33
the single lifespan,
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都是以整個生命為單位，
05:35
from birth to death.
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由出生到死亡。
05:37
But here's a problem with these issues:
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但關於這些問題的問題在於：
這些問題被加諸我們身上，
05:39
they stack up on top of us,
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因為我們只能把在世上行善
理解為在出生和死亡之間進行。
理解為在出生和死亡之間進行。
05:41
because the only way we know
how to do something good in the world
how to do something good in the world
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05:44
is if we do it between
our birth and our death.
our birth and our death.
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我們都是被設定這樣做的。
05:46
That's what we're programmed to do.
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你走到任何書店的自救書籍部門時，
05:48
If you go to the self-help section
in any bookstore,
in any bookstore,
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所有都是關於你自己。
05:50
it's all about you.
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05:53
Which is great,
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這是好事，
除非你要處理部分這些重大問題。
05:55
unless you're dealing
with some of these major issues.
with some of these major issues.
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05:59
And so with transgenerational thinking,
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從跨世代思考出發──
06:03
which is really kind of
transgenerational ethics,
transgenerational ethics,
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其實就是跨世代道德──
你就可以擴闊思考這些問題的方法，
06:05
you're able to expand
how you think about these problems,
how you think about these problems,
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而這是你在協助解決問題上
所擔當的角色。
所擔當的角色。
06:09
what is your role
in helping to solve them.
in helping to solve them.
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06:13
Now, this isn't something that just has to
be done at the Security Council chamber.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
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這並非一些必須在
安理會大會上進行的事。
安理會大會上進行的事。
06:18
It's something that you can do
in a very kind of personal way.
in a very kind of personal way.
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這是一些你可以個人方式進行的事。
每隔一段時間，
我有幸跟妻子出外晚膳，
我有幸跟妻子出外晚膳，
06:21
So every once in a while, if I'm lucky,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
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06:26
and we have three children
under the age of seven.
under the age of seven.
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而我們有三名七歲以下的孩子，
06:29
So you can imagine
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
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可想而知那頓飯吃得非常寧靜。
（笑聲）
06:31
(Laughter)
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我們坐下，我真的
只想吃東西和輕鬆一下，
只想吃東西和輕鬆一下，
06:33
So we sit down and literally
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
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06:38
and my kids have a completely
and totally different idea
and totally different idea
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而我的孩子對於我們做的事情
有完全不同的看法。
有完全不同的看法。
06:41
of what we're going to be doing.
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我的第一個想法
06:43
And so my first idea
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就是沙包策略，對吧？
06:45
is my sandbag strategy, right?
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06:47
It's to go into my pocket
and take out the iPhone
and take out the iPhone
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那就是從口袋中拿出 iPhone，
給他們《冰雪奇緣》
06:49
and give them "Frozen"
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或其他暢銷遊戲。
06:51
or some other bestselling game thing.
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06:55
And then I stop
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然後我停止這個想法，
我要採用這個跨世代思考方法。
06:58
and I have to kind of put on
this transgenerational thinking cap.
this transgenerational thinking cap.
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07:03
I don't do this in the restaurant,
because it would be bizarre,
because it would be bizarre,
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我不在餐館做這樣的事，
因為這會很怪誕，
因為這會很怪誕，
07:06
but I have to --
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但我卻要做──
我做過一次，所以明白這很怪誕。
07:07
I did it once, and that's how
I learned it was bizarre.
I learned it was bizarre.
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07:10
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:11
And you have to kind of think,
"OK, I can do this."
"OK, I can do this."
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你要認為自己一定做得到。
07:16
But what is this teaching them?
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但這教導他們什麼？
07:19
So what does it mean
if I actually bring some paper
if I actually bring some paper
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我帶幾張紙或跟他們談話建立關係，
這些行為代表什麼？
07:22
or engage with them in conversation?
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這並非易事，
而我以非常個人的方式去做。
而我以非常個人的方式去做。
07:23
It's hard. It's not easy,
and I'm making this very personal.
and I'm making this very personal.
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07:26
It's actually more traumatic
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實際上這比任何我在世上
處理過的大問題更加令人不安──
處理過的大問題更加令人不安──
07:28
than some of the big issues
that I work on in the world --
that I work on in the world --
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在晚膳時逗自己的孩子開心。
07:30
entertaining my kids at dinner.
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07:33
But what it does is it connects them
here in the present with me,
here in the present with me,
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但這樣做是要使我
跟他們在當下聯繫起來，
跟他們在當下聯繫起來，
此外──
07:36
but it also --
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這是跨世代思考道德的關鍵所在──
07:38
and this is the crux
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
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07:41
it sets them up to how they're
going to interact with their kids
going to interact with their kids
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為他們準備如何跟他們的孩子的
孩子的孩子互動。
孩子的孩子互動。
07:44
and their kids and their kids.
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07:48
Second, futures thinking.
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第二：未來思考。
07:50
When we think about the future,
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當我們想到未來時，
就是指未來 10 至 15 年。
07:52
10, 15 years out,
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07:54
give me a vision of what the future is.
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讓我知道各位對未來的想像。
07:58
You don't have to give it to me,
but think in your head.
but think in your head.
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各位毋須告訴我，
自己思考一下就好了。
自己思考一下就好了。
你大概會見到的
是一塊主導文化透視鏡，
是一塊主導文化透視鏡，
08:00
And what you're probably going to see
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08:02
is the dominant cultural lens
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08:04
that dominates our thinking
about the future right now:
about the future right now:
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主導我們現在怎樣思考未來：
08:07
technology.
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科技。
08:09
So when we think about the problems,
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當我們思考這些問題時，
我們從來都戴著科技透視鏡，
08:11
we always put it through
a technological lens,
a technological lens,
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擁抱科技中心或科技烏托邦主義。
這並非錯事，
這並非錯事，
08:13
a tech-centric, a techno-utopia,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
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08:17
but it's something that we have to
really think deeply about
really think deeply about
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但如果要在這些重大問題上有進展，
這就是我們必須深入思考的事情，
這就是我們必須深入思考的事情，
08:20
if we're going to move
on these major issues,
on these major issues,
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因為並非所有問題都是這樣，對吧？
08:23
because it wasn't always like this. Right?
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遠古時代的人對未來是甚麼
有他們的思考方式。
有他們的思考方式。
08:25
The ancients had their way of thinking
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08:28
about what the future was.
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08:31
The Church definitely had their idea
of what the future could be,
of what the future could be,
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對於未來可以變成怎樣，
教會絕對有他們的看法，
教會絕對有他們的看法，
你其實可以付錢
為進入未來那個世界鋪路，對吧？
為進入未來那個世界鋪路，對吧？
08:36
and you could actually pay your way
into that future. Right?
into that future. Right?
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08:39
And luckily for humanity,
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人類幸運之處
08:41
we got the scientific revolution.
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在於他們有科技革命。
此後我們有了科技，
08:43
From there, we got the technology,
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08:45
but what has happened --
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但其後發生的──
08:47
And by the way, this is not a critique.
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順帶一提，這並不是批判。
08:50
I love technology.
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我喜愛科技。
我的房子內所有東西都跟我回嘴，
08:52
Everything in my house talks back to me,
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我的孩子以至我的揚聲器都是。
08:54
from my children
to my speakers to everything.
to my speakers to everything.
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08:56
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
但我們卻把未來主導權
從羅馬的大祭司褫奪過來，
從羅馬的大祭司褫奪過來，
08:59
But we've abdicated the future
from the high priests in Rome
from the high priests in Rome
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交給矽谷的大祭司。
09:05
to the high priests of Silicon Valley.
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09:09
So when we think, well,
how are we going to deal with climate
how are we going to deal with climate
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所以當我們思考怎樣應對氣候、
貧窮或流浪漢問題時，
09:13
or with poverty or homelessness,
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我們的第一反應
就是透過科技去思考。
就是透過科技去思考。
09:14
our first reaction is to think about it
through a technology lens.
through a technology lens.
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09:19
And look, I'm not advocating
that we go to this guy.
that we go to this guy.
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我不是鼓吹大家
去聽這位老兄的說話。
去聽這位老兄的說話。
我喜歡約爾．歐斯汀的
電視佈道，別誤會，
電視佈道，別誤會，
09:23
I love Joel, don't get me wrong,
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09:26
but I'm not saying we go to Joel.
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但我不是要各位聽他的說話。
我要說的是，我們必須重新思考
只用一種方法探討未來、
只用一種方法探討未來、
09:28
What I'm saying is we have to rethink
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09:29
our base assumption about
only looking at the future in one way,
only looking at the future in one way,
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09:34
only looking at it
through the dominant lens.
through the dominant lens.
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2136
只透過主導透視鏡
探討未來的基本假設。
探討未來的基本假設。
因為我們的問題實在龐大和廣闊，
09:36
Because our problems
are so big and so vast
are so big and so vast
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我們需要開放自己。
09:39
that we need to open ourselves up.
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所以我在權限內
盡量不談「一個」未來。
盡量不談「一個」未來。
09:41
So that's why I do everything in my power
not to talk about the future.
not to talk about the future.
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09:46
I talk about futures.
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我談的是多個未來。
09:48
It opens the conversation again.
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這樣重啟對話。
當你坐著思考
09:50
So when you're sitting and thinking
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怎樣在重大問題上前進──
09:53
about how do we move forward
on this major issue --
on this major issue --
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09:56
it could be at home,
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這問題可以是家庭，
09:57
it could be at work,
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可以是工作，
也可以再次是全球性問題──
09:59
it could be again on the global stage --
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10:02
don't cut yourself off from thinking
about something beyond technology as a fix
about something beyond technology as a fix
217
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別打斷自己思考
科技以外的解決辦法，
科技以外的解決辦法，
因為我們目前關心科技進化
多於道德進化。
多於道德進化。
10:07
because we're more concerned
about technological evolution right now
about technological evolution right now
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10:10
than we are about moral evolution.
219
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10:12
And unless we fix for that,
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除非我們有解決科技進化的辦法，
10:15
we're not going to be able
to get out of short-termism
to get out of short-termism
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否則我們不能擺脫短期主義、
達到理想的境界。
10:17
and get to where we want to be.
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最後：終極 (Telos) 思考。
這來自希臘語詞根。
這來自希臘語詞根。
10:19
The final, telos thinking.
This comes from the Greek root.
This comes from the Greek root.
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10:22
Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.
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終極目標和終極用途。
這其實都是問一個問題：
10:24
And it's really asking one question:
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10:28
to what end?
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目的何在？
10:30
When was the last time
you asked yourself: To what end?
you asked yourself: To what end?
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你上一次何時自問目的何在？
當你這樣自問，你走得有多遠？
10:33
And when you asked yourself that,
how far out did you go?
how far out did you go?
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10:37
Because long isn't long enough anymore.
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3000
因為長遠已不再夠長。
10:41
Three, five years doesn't cut it.
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1896
三或五年也不夠長。
30、40、50、100 年才夠。
10:43
It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
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10:46
In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"
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在荷馬的史詩《奧德賽》，
奧德修斯有了「目的何在」的答案。
10:49
Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."
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那就是伊薩卡。
10:52
It was Ithaca.
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1400
10:53
It was this bold vision
of what he wanted --
of what he wanted --
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他懷著雄心壯志，就是想要
回到妻子佩涅羅珀的身邊。
10:56
to return to Penelope.
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10:57
And I can tell you,
because of the work that I'm doing,
because of the work that I'm doing,
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我可以告訴各位，因為我的工作，
11:00
but also you know it intuitively --
we have lost our Ithaca.
we have lost our Ithaca.
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也因為各位憑直覺也知道的事實，
我們已失去了我們的伊薩卡。
我們已失去了我們的伊薩卡。
我們已失去了我們的「目的何在」，
所以要留在這個倉鼠輪上。
所以要留在這個倉鼠輪上。
11:02
We have lost our "to what end,"
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
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11:06
And yes, we're trying
to solve these problems,
to solve these problems,
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沒錯，我們正嘗試解決這些問題，
11:08
but what comes after we solve the problem?
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但解決了問題後是甚麼境況？
11:12
And unless you define what comes after,
people aren't going to move.
people aren't going to move.
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除非你界定日後的境況是甚麼，
否則人們是不會行動的。
否則人們是不會行動的。
11:16
The businesses --
this isn't just about business --
this isn't just about business --
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商界──不只關乎營商──
當中那些一直突破短期主義的企業，
11:18
but the businesses that do consistently,
who break out of short-termism
who break out of short-termism
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11:22
not surprisingly
are family-run businesses.
are family-run businesses.
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毫無意外地都是家族企業。
11:24
They're transgenerational. They're telos.
They think about the futures.
They think about the futures.
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它們都是跨世代，
懷著終極目標，思考未來。
懷著終極目標，思考未來。
這就是百達翡麗的廣告，
手錶有 175 年的歷史，
手錶有 175 年的歷史，
11:27
And this is an ad for Patek Philippe.
They're 175 years old,
They're 175 years old,
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11:31
and what's amazing
is that they literally embody
is that they literally embody
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令人驚異的是，這些手錶確實象徵
11:34
this kind of longpathian sense
in their brand,
in their brand,
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品牌帶出的長途式氣質，
因為畢竟你從來都不是
真正擁有百達翡麗，
真正擁有百達翡麗，
11:37
because, by the way,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
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11:40
and I definitely won't --
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而我當然不會擁有，
11:42
(Laughter)
252
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（笑聲）
除非有人想拋 25,000 元到台上。
11:43
unless somebody wants to just
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
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你只是替下一代看守它。
11:46
You merely look after it
for the next generation.
for the next generation.
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11:50
So it's important that we remember,
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我們要記住的重要一點就是：
我們把未來當成名詞看待。
11:53
the future, we treat it like a noun.
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11:56
It's not. It's a verb.
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它不是名詞，而是動詞。
它是需要行動。
11:58
It requires action.
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未來是要闖進去的，
12:00
It requires us to push into it.
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12:01
It's not this thing that washes over us.
260
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1936
而不是忽然影響我們的事情。
它其實已是我們完全控制的東西，
12:03
It's something that we
actually have total control over.
actually have total control over.
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但在短期社會，我們最終感覺不到。
12:06
But in a short-term society,
we end up feeling like we don't.
we end up feeling like we don't.
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我們感覺像備受限制。
12:09
We feel like we're trapped.
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我們可以衝破這些限制。
12:10
We can push through that.
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12:14
Now I'm getting more comfortable
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現在我愈來愈能夠處之泰然，
12:17
in the fact that at some point
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那就是在無可避免的未來，
某個時間點，
某個時間點，
12:20
in the inevitable future,
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12:23
I will die.
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我將會死亡。
12:25
But because of these new ways
of thinking and doing,
of thinking and doing,
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因為這種思考和行動的新方式，
無論面對外面的世界，
或者面對我的家人，
或者面對我的家人，
12:29
both in the outside world
and also with my family at home,
and also with my family at home,
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12:33
and what I'm leaving my kids,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
I get more comfortable in that fact.
271
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想像我給孩子留下甚麼，
我對這個事實愈來愈能處之泰然。
我對這個事實愈來愈能處之泰然。
12:36
And it's something that a lot of us
are really uncomfortable with,
are really uncomfortable with,
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很多人都對這個事實非常不安，
但我要告訴你，
12:39
but I'm telling you,
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12:41
think it through.
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徹底思考一下。
應用這種思考方式，你就可以超越
12:43
Apply this type of thinking
and you can push yourself past
and you can push yourself past
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12:46
what's inevitably
very, very uncomfortable.
very, very uncomfortable.
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那些無可避免地令人非常不安的事。
12:48
And it all begins really
with yourself asking this question:
with yourself asking this question:
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一切始於你問自己這個問題：
12:52
What is your longpath?
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你的未來的長途是甚麼﹖
12:55
But I ask you, when you ask yourself that
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但我要求各位，
當你們問自己這個問題時，
當你們問自己這個問題時，
無論是現在、今晚、駕駛時、
12:58
now or tonight or behind a steering wheel
280
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在辦公室或者戰情室，
13:01
or in the boardroom or the situation room:
281
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13:06
push past the longpath,
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超越長途。
噢，我未來三至五年的
長途究竟是甚麼？
長途究竟是甚麼？
13:08
quick, oh, what's my longpath
the next three years or five years?
the next three years or five years?
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13:11
Try and push past your own life if you can
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盡可能嘗試超越自己的生命，
因為這使你做出比你
想像中能做的更大的事情。
想像中能做的更大的事情。
13:15
because it makes you do things
a little bit bigger
a little bit bigger
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13:17
than you thought were possible.
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13:20
Yes, we have huge,
huge problems out there.
huge problems out there.
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沒錯，我們外面有很多龐大的問題。
13:25
With this process, with this thinking,
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有了這個程序，有了這種思考方式，
13:29
I think we can make a difference.
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我認為大家可以成就改變。
13:31
I think you can make a difference,
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我認為你可以成就改變，
我相信各位。
13:33
and I believe in you guys.
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感謝大家。
13:35
Thank you.
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13:36
(Applause)
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（鼓掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com