Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
Ari Wallach: 3 načina za (jako) dugoročno planiranje
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
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which is a term I made up --
što je izraz koji sam izmislio...
I would sit down with people,
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
što će biti za 10, 20 godina."
vremensko razdoblje
with a CEO two months ago
upoznao direktora
our initial conversation.
I want to talk about the next six months."
radiš, želim pričati o idućih 6 mjeseci."
that we are facing.
s kojima se suočavamo.
that we use right now
koje trenutačno koristimo
technical work is being done,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
najprije riješiti, a priori,
move the needle on those big problems.
oko tih velikih problema.
There's no bracelets.
to be against short-termism.
za borbu protiv kratkoročnosti.
nitko nije potpisao.
nook and cranny of our reality.
dio naše stvarnosti.
that you're thinking, working on.
o kojem razmišljate, na kojem radite.
move-the-needle world stuff,
promijeniti svijet.
how far out you tend to think
da biste osmislili
expensive safety equipment.
Deepwater Horizon.
one-on-one time with their students.
s pojedinim učenicima.
drops out every 26 seconds.
svakih 26 sekundi.
in here from Congress --
nekog iz Kongresa --
into a real infrastructure bill.
is the I-35W bridge collapse
We did the Panama Canal.
Sagradili smo Panamski kanal.
have eradicated global polio.
dječju paralizu u svijetu.
the Marshall Plan.
željeznicu. Marshallov plan.
infrastructure problems and issues.
infrastrukturnim problemima i izazovima.
past the next tweet or timeline post,
nekoliko poruka ili objava,
their war-torn country,
iz ratom razorenih zemalja
and we put them away for life.
i osuditi ih na doživotnu.
without even thinking
bez osmišljavanja
to get between them and their job.
for a lot of these problems,
sandbag strategies.
strategijom vreće pijeska.
no one's put any money into it,
nitko nije ulagao u održavanje,
the water level goes down,
after storm after storm.
kvartalne rezultate.
than the one we have right now,
u kojoj smo sad,
sve što je trebalo --
our mental models and our mental maps
naše mentalne modele i mentalne mape
is something called "longpath,"
što zovemo "dugoročnost",
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
koju radite samo jednom.
at some point has done an off-site
od vas ovdje u nekom trenutku
and whiteboards,
i bijelih ploča,
in here who do that --
koji to rade --
everyone forgets about it.
svi zaborave na njega.
If you're lucky, three months.
Ako ste sretni, tri mjeseca.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
nešto uobičajeno.
to revisit different ways of thinking
različite načine razmišljanja
that you're working on.
those three ways of thinking.
načina razmišljanja.
kind of looking into this.
for their entire reality
pun vrlina i dobar,
how to do something good in the world
kako napraviti nešto dobro u svijetu,
our birth and our death.
u nekoj knjižari,
in any bookstore,
with some of these major issues.
od tih glavnih izazova.
transgenerational ethics,
transgeneracijske etike,
how you think about these problems,
razmišljanja o tim stvarima,
in helping to solve them.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
isključivo u dvoranih Vijeća sigurnosti UN-a.
in a very kind of personal way.
na poseban i osoban način.
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
supruga i ja iziđemo van na večeru.
under the age of seven.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
je jesti i uživati.
and totally different idea
drugačiju ideju
and take out the iPhone
this transgenerational thinking cap.
za međugeneracijsko razmišljanje.
because it would be bizarre,
izgledalo bizarno
I learned it was bizarre.
i tako naučio da je to bizarno.
"OK, I can do this."
if I actually bring some paper
and I'm making this very personal.
i ja to radim vrlo osobno.
na kojima radim --
that I work on in the world --
here in the present with me,
s njima u stvarnom vremenu
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
transgeneracijskog razmišljanja --
going to interact with their kids
s njihovom djecom
but think in your head.
samo zamišljajte u svojoj glavi.
about the future right now:
razmišljanjem o budućnosti:
a technological lens,
kroz tehnološko gledište
and there's nothing wrong with that,
u tehnologiji. I to je u redu,
really think deeply about
moramo duboko zamisliti
on these major issues,
te glavne probleme s mrtve točke
način razmišljanja
of what the future could be,
kakva bi budućnost mogla biti
into that future. Right?
svoj put u tu budućnost. Zar ne?
to my speakers to everything.
from the high priests in Rome
zamislili visoki svećenici u Rimu
Silicijske doline.
how are we going to deal with climate
s klimatskim promjenama
through a technology lens.
kroz ono što nudi tehnologija.
that we go to this guy.
otići do ovog čovjeka.
meni se Joel sviđa,
otići k njemu.
only looking at the future in one way,
budućnost gledamo samo na jedan način,
through the dominant lens.
are so big and so vast
i tako opsežni
drugačijim razmišljanjima.
not to talk about the future.
da ne govorim o budućnosti.
on this major issue --
u tom velikom problemu --
about something beyond technology as a fix
nečemu što tehnologija ne može popraviti
about technological evolution right now
tehnološki razvitak
to get out of short-termism
iz kratkoročnosti
This comes from the Greek root.
Riječ grčkog porijekla.
you asked yourself: To what end?
"Kamo idem?"
how far out did you go?
koliko daleko ste bili spremni ići?
na svoje "kamo idem?"
of what he wanted --
što je htio --
because of the work that I'm doing,
mi smo izgubili našu Itaku.
we have lost our Ithaca.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
i ostajemo u kotaču za hrčka.
to solve these problems,
people aren't going to move.
ljudi neće ni prstom maknuti.
this isn't just about business --
ne radi se samo o njima --
who break out of short-termism
koji prekida s kratkoročnošću je,
are family-run businesses.
obiteljsko poduzetništvo.
They think about the futures.
Oni smišljaju različite budućnosti.
They're 175 years old,
Posluju već 175 godina
is that they literally embody
doslovno utjelovljuju
in their brand,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
Patek Philippea,
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
25.000 dolara na pozornicu.
for the next generation.
za buduće generacije.
actually have total control over.
imamo kontrolu.
osjećaj da tu kontrolu nemamo.
we end up feeling like we don't.
of thinking and doing,
razmišljanja i rada,
and also with my family at home,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
osjećam se ugodnije.
are really uncomfortable with,
mnogima od nas neugodnije,
and you can push yourself past
i možete se odmaknuti
very, very uncomfortable.
with yourself asking this question:
samo jedno pitanje:
ili dvorani za sastanke:
the next three years or five years?
načina življenja ako možete
a little bit bigger
da učinite malo veće stvari
huge problems out there.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com