Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
ארי וולאך: 3 דרכים לתכנון לטווח (המאוד) ארוך.
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
which is a term I made up --
I would sit down with people,
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
with a CEO two months ago
our initial conversation.
I want to talk about the next six months."
אני רוצה לדבר על ששת החודשים הבאים."
that we are facing.
that we use right now
בהם אנחנו משתמשים עכשיו
technical work is being done,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
לפתור מראש, לפני,
move the needle on those big problems.
בבעיות הגדולות האלו.
There's no bracelets.
to be against short-termism.
כדי להיות נגד חשיבה לטווח קצר.
nook and cranny of our reality.
that you're thinking, working on.
עובדים עליהם.
move-the-needle world stuff,
ברמה העולמית,
how far out you tend to think
expensive safety equipment.
פיצוץ על אסדת קידוח.
one-on-one time with their students.
עם התלמידים שלהם.
drops out every 26 seconds.
in here from Congress --
into a real infrastructure bill.
is the I-35W bridge collapse
זה התמוטטות גשר ה-I-35
We did the Panama Canal.
have eradicated global polio.
the Marshall Plan.
תוכנית מרשל.
infrastructure problems and issues.
past the next tweet or timeline post,
עד לציוץ הבא או פוסט בקו הזמן,
their war-torn country,
שבורחים מאזורים קרועי מלחמה,
and we put them away for life.
ואנחנו שמים אותם בכלא לכל החיים.
without even thinking
to get between them and their job.
for a lot of these problems,
יש כמה תיקונים טכניים,
sandbag strategies.
אסטרטגיות שקי חול.
no one's put any money into it,
the water level goes down,
אתם נפטרים משקי החול,
after storm after storm.
במטרות הרבעוניות שלכם.
than the one we have right now,
our mental models and our mental maps
את דפוסי ומפות החשיבה שלנו
is something called "longpath,"
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
at some point has done an off-site
היו מחוץ להתרחשות
and whiteboards,
in here who do that --
everyone forgets about it.
If you're lucky, three months.
אם יש לכם מזל, שלושה חודשים.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
to revisit different ways of thinking
לשקול מחדש דרכים שונות לחשיבה
that you're working on.
those three ways of thinking.
על שלוש דרכי החשיבה האלו.
kind of looking into this.
for their entire reality
how to do something good in the world
איך לעשות משהו טוב בעולם
בין הלידה למוות שלנו.
our birth and our death.
בכל חנות ספרים,
in any bookstore,
with some of these major issues.
עם כמה מהנושאים הגדולים.
transgenerational ethics,
how you think about these problems,
בנוגע לבעיות האלו,
in helping to solve them.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
להיעשות במועצת הבטחון.
in a very kind of personal way.
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
אשתי ואני אוהבים לצאת לארוחת ערב,
under the age of seven.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
שזו ארוחה רגועה ושקטה.
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
זה רק לאכול ולהירגע,
and totally different idea
and take out the iPhone
this transgenerational thinking cap.
because it would be bizarre,
I learned it was bizarre.
"OK, I can do this."
"אוקיי, אני יכול לעשות את זה."
if I actually bring some paper
and I'm making this very personal.
ואני עושה את זה ממש אישי.
שאני עובד עליהם בעולם --
that I work on in the world --
here in the present with me,
זה מחבר אותם להווה איתי,
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
going to interact with their kids
בה הם יתקשרו עם הילדים שלהם,
but think in your head.
אבל תחשבו בראש.
about the future right now:
a technological lens,
דרך עדשה טכנולוגית,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
ואין שום דבר רע בזה,
really think deeply about
צריכים באמת לחשוב לעומק עליו,
on these major issues,
of what the future could be,
על איך ייראה העתיד.
into that future. Right?
to my speakers to everything.
from the high priests in Rome
מהכוהן הגדול שלנו ברומא
how are we going to deal with climate
through a technology lens.
היא לחשוב על זה דרך עדשה טכנולוגית.
that we go to this guy.
only looking at the future in one way,
להסתכלות על העתיד רק בדרך אחת,
through the dominant lens.
are so big and so vast
not to talk about the future.
on this major issue --
בבעיה החשובה הזו --
about something beyond technology as a fix
על משהו מעבר לטכנולוגיה כתיקון,
about technological evolution right now
מההתפתחות הטכנולוגית,
to get out of short-termism
This comes from the Greek root.
זה מגיע ממקור יווני.
you asked yourself: To what end?
שאלתם את עצמכם: לאיזו מטרה?
how far out did you go?
"לאיזו מטרה."
of what he wanted --
because of the work that I'm doing,
בגלל העבודה שאני עושה,
we have lost our Ithaca.
איבדנו את איתקה.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
אז אנחנו נשארים על גלגל האוגרים.
to solve these problems,
people aren't going to move.
אנשים לא יזוזו.
this isn't just about business --
who break out of short-termism
מהחשיבה קצרת הטווח
are family-run businesses.
They think about the futures.
הם חושבים על העתידים.
They're 175 years old,
is that they literally embody
in their brand,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
לא הבעלים של פטק פיליפ,
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
25,000 דולר על הבמה.
for the next generation.
actually have total control over.
we end up feeling like we don't.
אנחנו מרגישים כאילו אין לנו.
of thinking and doing,
and also with my family at home,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
יותר נוח לי עם העובדה הזו.
are really uncomfortable with,
and you can push yourself past
לדחוף את עצמכם
very, very uncomfortable.
with yourself asking this question:
כשאתם שואלים את עצמכם את זה
the next three years or five years?
בשלוש או חמש שנים הבאות?"
a little bit bigger
לעשות דברים קצת יותר בגדול
huge problems out there.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com