Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
阿里 · 华莱士: 用三种方法规划(非常)长远的未来
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
好吧,这词是我编的。
which is a term I made up --
I would sit down with people,
10年、20年后吧。”
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
with a CEO two months ago
our initial conversation.
但我就想聊聊未来6个月的事情。”
I want to talk about the next six months."
that we are facing.
that we use right now
工作正在进行中,
technical work is being done,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
move the needle on those big problems.
也没有(标志性的)手环。
There's no bracelets.
就可以对抗短视主义。
to be against short-termism.
nook and cranny of our reality.
正在从事的事情。
that you're thinking, working on.
move-the-needle world stuff,
how far out you tend to think
expensive safety equipment.
one-on-one time with their students.
drops out every 26 seconds.
我先说句抱歉——
in here from Congress --
into a real infrastructure bill.
is the I-35W bridge collapse
We did the Panama Canal.
我们建造了巴拿马运河。
have eradicated global polio.
消灭了小儿麻痹症。
实施了马歇尔计划。
the Marshall Plan.
infrastructure problems and issues.
实体基础设施问题。
或者时间线上的帖子,
past the next tweet or timeline post,
their war-torn country,
and we put them away for life.
without even thinking
从那里出发去上班。
to get between them and their job.
for a lot of these problems,
sandbag strategies.
防洪堤即将崩溃,
no one's put any money into it,
the water level goes down,
after storm after storm.
than the one we have right now,
在我们思维模型和
our mental models and our mental maps
is something called "longpath,"
一劳永逸的做法。
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
at some point has done an off-site
and whiteboards,
咨询服务的啊——
in here who do that --
抛到九霄云外。
everyone forgets about it.
If you're lucky, three months.
幸运的话持续三个月。
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
每一个重大决定
to revisit different ways of thinking
that you're working on.
those three ways of thinking.
哈贝马斯,海德格尔。
kind of looking into this.
for their entire reality
有生之年做出好事,
how to do something good in the world
our birth and our death.
in any bookstore,
with some of these major issues.
transgenerational ethics,
伦理与准则,
how you think about these problems,
过程中扮演的角色。
in helping to solve them.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
会议厅里解决的事情。
in a very kind of personal way.
我都会和妻子出去吃一顿饭,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
under the age of seven.
非常和平,安静的晚饭。
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
我一心只想着能安静地吃东西,
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
and totally different idea
and take out the iPhone
进入跨代际的思考状态。
this transgenerational thinking cap.
because it would be bizarre,
发现了它有多么诡异的。
I learned it was bizarre.
"OK, I can do this."
if I actually bring some paper
搞得个人化。
and I'm making this very personal.
让孩子们在晚餐时娱乐
that I work on in the world --
here in the present with me,
将我和孩子们连结为一体,
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
going to interact with their kids
but think in your head.
about the future right now:
a technological lens,
这些并没有什么问题,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
really think deeply about
on these major issues,
of what the future could be,
未来的样子,对么?
into that future. Right?
to my speakers to everything.
from the high priests in Rome
how are we going to deal with climate
through a technology lens.
that we go to this guy.
在鼓动大家去投靠他。
only looking at the future in one way,
through the dominant lens.
覆盖范围非常广,
are so big and so vast
我尽力不讨论单一的未来,
not to talk about the future.
on this major issue --
尝试科技以外的事物吧,
about something beyond technology as a fix
about technological evolution right now
是科技的发展。
to get out of short-termism
它起源于希腊。
This comes from the Greek root.
you asked yourself: To what end?
是什么时候了?
你已经走了多远?
how far out did you go?
有自己的答案,
of what he wanted --
because of the work that I'm doing,
我们的”伊萨卡岛“已经沦陷。
we have lost our Ithaca.
就好像被困在在的仓鼠轮上。
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
to solve these problems,
又会发生什么呢?
people aren't going to move.
人们是不会行动的。
this isn't just about business --
(而又不限于商业)
而长久维系的企业
who break out of short-termism
are family-run businesses.
追根究底,并思考未来。
They think about the futures.
它已经有175年历史了,
They're 175 years old,
他们实际上在品牌中
is that they literally embody
in their brand,
拥有一块百达翡丽表,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
for the next generation.
actually have total control over.
怀疑自己把握未来的能力。
we end up feeling like we don't.
of thinking and doing,
和行动的新方法,
and also with my family at home,
我实际上能收获更多的愉悦。
I get more comfortable in that fact.
are really uncomfortable with,
使自己获得超越的过程,
and you can push yourself past
very, very uncomfortable.
“长期目标是什么”
with yourself asking this question:
或者是在你开车的时候。
the next three years or five years?
a little bit bigger
huge problems out there.
大得可怕的问题。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com