TEDGlobal 2007
Eleni Gabre-Madhin: A commodities exchange for Ethiopia
Eleni Gabre-Madhin despre economia etiopiana
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Economista Eleni Gabre-Madhin conturează viziunea ei ambiţioasa de a fonda prima piaţă de mărfuri în Etiopia. Planul ei ar crea bogăţie, ar minimiza riscul pentru agricultori şi ar transforma cel mai mare beneficiar din lume al ajutorului alimentar într-un coş alimentar regional.
Eleni Gabre-Madhin - Economist
Eleni Gabre-Madhin is working to build Ethiopia's first commodities market. Re-establishing the profit motive for farmers, she believes, could help turn the world's largest recipient of food aid into a regional food basket. Full bio
Eleni Gabre-Madhin is working to build Ethiopia's first commodities market. Re-establishing the profit motive for farmers, she believes, could help turn the world's largest recipient of food aid into a regional food basket. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
You know, there's a small country nestled in the Himalayan Mountains,
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Dumneavoastra stiti ca exista o tara mica asezata chiar in Muntii Himalaya,
00:30
far from these beautiful mountains, where the people
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departe de acesti munti frumosi, unde locuitorii
00:32
of the Kingdom of Bhutan have decided to do something different,
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Regatului Bhutan au decis sa intreprinda ceva diferit,
00:35
which is to measure their gross national happiness
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adica sa măsoare Producţia Naţională de Fericire
00:38
rather than their gross national product.
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în locul Produsului Intern Brut.
00:40
And why not?
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Şi de ce nu?
00:42
After all, happiness is not just a privilege for the lucky few,
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Una peste alta, fericirea nu este doar privilegiu al câtorva norocoşi,
00:46
but a fundamental human right for all.
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ci, din contră, un drept fundamental al tuturor.
00:49
And what is happiness?
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Şi ce este fericirea?
00:51
Happiness is the freedom of choice.
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Fericirea este libertatea de alegere.
00:53
The freedom to chose where to live,
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Libertatea de a alege unde să trăieşti,
00:55
what to do, what to buy, what to sell,
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ce să faci, ce să cumperi, ce să vinzi,
00:58
from whom, to whom, when and how.
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de la cine, cui, unde şi cum.
01:02
Where does choice come from?
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De unde vine alegerea?
01:05
And who gets to express it, and how do we express it?
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Şi cine ajunge să o exprime şi cum o exprimăm noi?
01:08
Well, one way to express choice is through the market.
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Ei bine, o cale prin care ne exprimăm alegerea este prin intermediul pieţii.
01:13
Well-functioning markets provide choices, and ultimately,
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Pieţele care funcţionează bine oferă opţiuni şi, în final,
01:16
the ability to express one's pursuit for happiness.
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abilitatea de a exprima urmărirea de catre cineva a fericirii.
01:21
The great Indian economist, Amartya Sen, was awarded the Nobel prize
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Celebrului economist indian, Amartya Sen, i-a fost decernat premiul Nobel
01:28
for demonstrating that famine is not so much about
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pentru ca a demonstrat ca foametea nu are de-a face atat de mult cu
01:31
the availability of food supply, but rather the ability to acquire
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aprovizionarea cu alimente, ci mai degraba cu abilitatea de a dobandi
01:35
or entitle oneself to that food through the market.
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sau indreptati pe cineva la acea hrana prin intermediul pietii.
01:39
In 1984, in what can only be considered one of the
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In 1984, in ceea ce ar putea fi considerata una dintre cele
01:43
greatest crimes of humanity, nearly one million people died of starvation
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mai mari crime ale umanitatii, aproape un milion de oameni au murit de foame
01:47
in my country of birth, Ethiopia.
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in tara mea natala, Etiopia.
01:49
Not because there was not enough food --
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Nu pentru ca nu a fost suficienta hrana,
01:51
because there was actually a surplus of food
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pentru ca, de fapt, a fost un surplus de hrana
01:54
in the fertile regions of the south parts of the country --
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in regiunile fertile din partile de sud ale tarii,
01:58
but because in the north, people could not access
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ci pentru ca, in nord, oamenii nu au avut acces
02:00
or entitle themselves to that food.
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sau nu au putut dobandi acces la acea hrana.
02:02
That was a turning point for my life.
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Acela a fost un moment crucial in viata mea.
02:04
Most Africans today, by far, are farmers.
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Astazi cea mai mare parte a Africanilor sunt, in cea mai mare parte, fermieri.
02:07
And most of Africa's farmers are, by and large,
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Si majoritatea agricultorilor Africii sunt, de departe,
02:11
small farmers in terms of land that they operate, and very, very small
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agricultori mici in ceea ce priveste terenul pe care produc si agricultori foarte, foarte mici
02:15
farmers in terms of the capital they have at their disposal.
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din punct de vedere al capitalului pe care il au la dispozitie.
02:19
African agriculture today is among, or is, the most under-capitalized in the world.
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La momentul de fata, agricultura africana este printre, ori este cea mai sub-capitalizata din lume.
02:25
Only seven percent of arable land in Africa is irrigated,
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Numai sapte la procente din terenul arabil din Arica este irigat,
02:30
compared to 40 percent in Asia.
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in comparatie cu 40 de procente in Asia.
02:32
African farmers only use some 22 kilograms of fertilizer per hectare,
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Agricultorii africani folosesc doar 22 de kilograme de fertilizator la hectar,
02:39
compared to 144 in Asia.
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in comparatie cu 144 in Asia.
02:43
Road density is six times greater in Asia than it is in rural Africa.
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Densitatea drumurilor este de sase ori mai mare in Asia fata de Africa rurala.
02:48
There are eight times more tractors in Latin America,
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Sunt de opt ori mai multe tractoare in America Latina,
02:51
and three times more tractors in Asia, than in Africa.
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si de trei ori mai multe in Asia, decat in Africa.
02:56
The small farmer in Africa today lives a life without much choice,
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Agricultorii mici din Africa zilelor noastre traiesc o viata fara prea multe optiuni
03:00
and therefore without much freedom.
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si, prin urmare, fara prea multa libertate.
03:02
His livelihood is predetermined
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Mijloacele lui de supravietuire sunt predeterminate
03:04
by the conditions of grinding poverty.
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de condiţiile de saracie asupritoare.
03:07
He comes to the market when prices are lowest,
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El vine la piata cand preturile sunt cele mai mici
03:10
with the meager fruits of his hard labor, just after the harvest,
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cu fructele slabe ale muncii lui grele, imediat după recoltare,
03:13
because he has no choice.
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pentru ca el nu are alternativa.
03:15
She comes back to the market
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Ea se intoarce la piata
03:18
some months later, when prices are highest, in what we call
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cateva luni mai tarziu, cand preturile sunt cele mai mari, in ceea ce noi numim
03:21
the lean season -- when food is scarce --
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sezonul slab -- cand hrana este neîndestulătoare --
03:24
because she has to feed her family and has no choice.
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pentru ca ea trebuie sa-si hraneasca familia si nu are alta optiune.
03:30
The real question is, how can markets be developed in rural Africa
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Intrebarea reala este: cum pot fi dezvoltate pietele in Africa rurala
03:35
to harness the power of innovation and entrepreneurship
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pentru a valorifica puterea de inovare şi spirit antreprenorial
03:38
that we know exists?
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care noi stim ca exista?
03:40
Another notable economist, Theodore Schultz,
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Un alt economist notabil, Theodore Schultz,
03:45
in 1974 won the Nobel prize for demonstrating that farmers
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in 1974 a primit premiul Nobel pentru ca a demonstrat ca agricultorii
03:49
are efficient, but poor.
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sunt eficienti dar, saraci.
03:51
Meaning, in fact, that farmers are rational
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Afirmand, de fapt, ca agricultorii sunt rationali
03:54
and profit-minded just like everybody else.
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si orientati pe profit precum toti ceilalti.
03:56
Well, we don't need, now,
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Bine, nu avem nevoie, acum,
03:59
any more Nobel prizes to know that farmers want a fair shake
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de alte premii Nobel, să aflăm că agricultorii doresc un tratament echitabil
04:02
at the market and want to make money, just like everyone else.
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in piata si ca vor sa faca profit, la fel ca oricine altcineva.
04:06
And one thing is clear, which is at least now we know
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Si un lucru este cert, pe care cel putin noi il stim acum
04:10
that Africa is open for business.
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ca Africa este deschisa pentru afaceri.
04:12
And that business is agriculture.
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Si aceasta afacere este agricultura.
04:16
Over two decades ago, the world insisted to Africa that markets
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Cu peste doua decenii in urma, lumea insista ca pietele din Africa
04:20
must be liberalized, that economies must be structurally adjusted.
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trebuie liberalizate -- ca aceste economii trebuie ajustate structural.
04:25
This meant that governments were to remove themselves
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Aceasta insemna ca guvernele trebuiau sa se retraga
04:27
from the business of buying and selling --
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din afacerile de vanzare si cumparare
04:29
which they did rather inefficiently --
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pe care acestia o faceau oarecum ineficient --
04:31
and let the private market do its magic.
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si sa lase piata privata sa-si faca magia.
04:34
Well, what happened over the last 25 years?
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Bine, ce s-a intamplat in ultimii 25 de ani?
04:37
Did Africa feed itself?
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S-a hranit Africa singura?
04:39
Did our farmers turn into highly productive commercial actors?
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Au devenit fermierii actori comerciali cu o productivitate inalta?
04:43
I think we're all in this room,
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Eu cred ca noi toti suntem in aceasta camera
04:46
probably, because we know that, in fact, Africa is the only region
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probabil, pentru ca noi stim ca, de fapt, Africa este singura regiune
04:50
in the world where hunger and malnutrition are projected to go up
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din lume unde foamea si malnutrinitia se preconizeaza ca se vor accentua
04:54
over the next 10 years,
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in urmatorii 10 ani.
04:56
where the food import bill is now double
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Unde factura mancarii importate este acum dubla
04:59
what it was 20 years ago,
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fata de cum a fost in urma cu 20 de ani.
05:01
where food production per capita has
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Unde productia de hrana pe cap de locuitor
05:05
stagnated, and where fertilizer use has declined rather than increased.
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a stagnat, si unde folosirea fertilizarii a scazut in loc sa creasca.
05:11
So why didn't agriculture markets perform to expectations?
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De ce pietele agricole nu au raspuns asteptarilor?
05:14
The market reforms prompted by the West --
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Reformele pietei preconizate de catre Vest --
05:16
and I've spent some 15 years traveling around the continent
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si am petrecut aproape 15 ani calatorind de-a lungul continentului
05:21
doing research on agricultural markets, and have interviewed
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facand cercetari asupra pietelor agricle, si am intervievat
05:24
traders in 10 to 15 countries in this continent, hundreds of traders --
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comercianti in 10 - 15 tari de pe acest continent -- sute de comercianti --
05:29
trying to understand what went wrong with our market reform.
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incercand sa inteleg ceea ce a fost gresit in reforma pietii noastre.
05:34
And it seems to me that the reforms might have
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Mi se pare ca aceste reforme ar putea sa fi
05:38
thrown the baby out with the bath water.
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aruncat copilul din cada impreuna cu apa din ea.
05:40
Like its agriculture,
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Ca si agricultura,
05:42
Africa's markets are highly under-capitalized and inefficient.
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pietele africane sunt in mare parte sub-capitalizate si ineficiente.
05:46
We know from our work around the continent
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Noi stim din munca noastra pe intreg continentul
05:48
that transaction costs of reaching the market,
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ca, costurile de tranzactie pentru a ajunge la piata,
05:51
and the risks of transacting in rural, agriculture markets,
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si ca riscurile tranzactionarii in pietele agriculturii rurale,
05:55
are extremely high.
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sunt extrem de mari.
05:57
In fact, only one third of agricultural output
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De fapt, numai o treime din productia agricola
06:00
produced in Africa even reaches the market.
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produsa in Africa ajunge chiar in piata.
06:03
Africa's markets are weak not only because of weak infrastructure
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Pietele africane sunt slabe, nu numai din cauza infrastructurii slabe
06:07
in terms of roads and telecommunications, but also because
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in ceea ce priveste drumurile si telecomunicatiile, dar si din cauza
06:11
of the virtual absence of necessary market institutions, such as
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absentei virtuale a institutiilor necesare pietii precum
06:15
market information, grades and standards,
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informatii de piata, grade si standarde
06:19
and reliable ways to connect buyers and sellers.
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si cai viabile de a conecta cumparatorii de vanzatori.
06:22
Because of this, commodity buyers and sellers typically transact in small circles,
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Din cauza acestui fapt, cumparatorii si vanzatorii de marfuri tranzactioneaza, de obicei, in cercuri mici,
06:27
in narrow networks of people they know and trust.
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in retele inguste de oameni pe care-i cunosc si in care au incredere.
06:31
And because of that, as grain changes hands --
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Si din cauza aceasta, cum cerealele trec prin mai multe maini --
06:35
and I've measured that it changes hands four, five times in
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si am masurat ca acestea se schimba de patru, cinci ori in
06:39
its trajectory from the farmer to the consumer --
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traseul lor de la fermier la consumator --
06:42
every time it changes hands -- and I've seen this all over rural Africa --
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de fiecare data cand trec dintr-o mana in alta -- si am vazut asta pe intreg teritoriul Africii rurale --
06:46
it also changes sacks.
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se schimba si sacii.
06:48
And I thought that was incredibly peculiar.
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Si m-am gandit ca asta a fost incredibil de deosebit.
06:50
And really realized that that was because -- as traders would tell me
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Si am inteles ca aceasta se intampla pentru ca -- dupa cum imi spun comerciantii
06:53
over and over -- that's the only way people know what they're getting
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odata si inca o data -- aceasta este singura cale prin care oamenii stiu ce primesc
06:56
in terms of the quantity and the product quality.
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in termenii cantitatii si calitatii produselor.
07:00
And that actually has huge implications
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Si aceasta are implicatii enorme
07:03
for the ability of markets to quickly respond to price signals,
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asupra abilitatii pietelor de a raspunde promt la semnalele pretului,
07:08
and situations where there are deficits, for example.
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si la situatii cand sunt deficite, de exemplu.
07:11
It also has very high cost implications.
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De asemenea are implicatii foarte mari asupra costului.
07:14
I have measured that 26 percent of the marketing margin
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Am masurat ca 26 de procente din marja de marketing
07:17
is simply due to the fact that, because of the absence
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se datoreaza absentei
07:19
of grades and standards and market information,
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gradelor si standardelor si informatiilor de piata,
07:23
sacks have to be constantly changed.
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sacii trebuie sa fie in mod constant schimbati.
07:26
And this leads to very high handling costs.
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Si acest fapt conduce la costuri de manuire foarte mari.
07:29
For their part, small farmers, who produce the bulk of our agricultural output in Africa,
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La rândul lor, micii fermieri, care produc cea mai mare parte a producţiei noastre agricole în Africa
07:34
come to the market with virtually no information at all -- blind --
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vin la piaţă practic cu nici o informaţie - orbeste.
07:38
trusting that they're going to have
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Fiind increzatori ca vor avea
07:41
some sort of demand for their produce,
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o cat de cat cerere pentru produsele lor,
07:44
and completely at the mercy of the merchants
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si sunt complet la mana comerciantilor
07:48
in the only market, the nearest local market they know --
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in singura piata, cea mai apropriata piata pe care ei o cunosc --
07:52
where they're unable to negotiate better prices or reduce their risk.
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unde ei nu sunt in masura sa negocieze preturi mai bune sau sa-si reduca riscul.
07:55
Speaking of risk, we have seen that price volatility
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Vorbind de risc, am văzut că volatilitatea preţurilor
07:59
of food crops in Africa is the highest in the world.
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culturilor alimentare în Africa este cea mai mare din lume.
08:01
In Africa, small farmers bear the brunt of this risk.
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În Africa, mici fermieri duc greul acestui risc.
08:05
In fact, in my view, there is no region of the world and no period in history
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De fapt, în opinia mea, nu există nici o regiune a lumii şi nici o perioadă din istorie
08:14
that farmers have been expected to bear the kind of market risk
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in care fermierii au trebuit sa suporte tipul de risc al pietii
08:15
that Africa's farmers have to bear.
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pe care fermierii din Africa trebuie sa le suporte.
08:18
And in my view, there is simply no place in the world
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Si in opinia mea, pur si simplu nu exista loc in lume
08:20
that has grown its agriculture on the kind of risk
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care si-a construit propria agricultura pe tipul de risc
08:24
that our farmers in Africa today face.
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pe care fermierii nostrii din Africa zilelor noastre il infrunta.
08:27
In Ethiopia, for example, the variation in maize prices
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In Etiopia, de exemplu, variatia preturilor porumbului
08:31
from year to year is as much as 50 percent annually.
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de la un an la altul este de 50 de procente anual.
08:34
This kind of market risk is mind-boggling, and has direct implications
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Acest fel de risc al pietii este innebunitor, si are implicatii directe
08:38
for not only the incentives of farmers to invest
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nu numai pentru stimulentele fermierilor de a investi
08:42
in higher productivity technology, such as modern seeds and fertilizers,
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în tehnologie cu productivitate mai mare, cum ar fi seminţe moderne şi îngrăşăminte,
08:47
but also direct implications for food security.
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dar, de asemenea cu implicaţii directe pentru securitatea alimentară.
08:50
To give you an example, between 2001 and 2002,
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Ca sa va ofer un exemplu, intre 2001 si 2002
08:54
Ethiopian maize farmers produced two years of bumper harvest.
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agricultorii etiopieni de porumb au produs doi ani productia maxima.
08:57
That in turn, because of the weak marketing system,
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Aceasta, la rândul său, din cauza sistemului de comercializare slab,
09:00
led to an 80 percent collapse in maize prices in the country.
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a condus la un colaps cu 80 la sută al preţurilor la porumb în ţară.
09:05
This made it unprofitable for some farmers to even harvest the grain from the fields.
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Acest lucru a făcut-o neprofitabilă pentru unii agricultori chiar si recolta de cereale din camp.
09:10
And we calculated that some 300,000 tons of grain
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Şi am calculat că aproximativ 300.000 de tone de cereale
09:13
was left in the fields to rot in early 2002.
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a fost lăsată pe camp sa putrezească la începutul anului 2002.
09:17
Not six months later, in July 2002, Ethiopia announced a major food crisis,
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Nici şase luni mai târziu, în iulie 2002, Etiopia a anunţat o criză majoră alimentară,
09:23
to the same proportions as 1984: 14 million people at risk of starvation.
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de aceleasi proportii ca cea din 1984 -- 14 milioane de oameni riscand sa moara de foame.
09:28
What also happened that year
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Ce s-a intamplat de asemenea in acel an
09:31
is in the areas where there were good rains, and where farmers
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este în zonele în care au fost ploi bune, şi unde agricultorii
09:35
had previously produced surplus grain, farmers had decided
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au avut anterior productii excedentare de cereale, agricultorii au decis
09:39
to withdraw from the fertilizer market, not use fertilizer
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să se retragă de pe piaţa ingrasamintelor, să nu utilize fertilizatori,
09:43
and actually had dropped their use of fertilizer by 27 percent.
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şi de fapt, au scăzut utilizarea de îngrăşăminte cu 27 procente.
09:47
This is a tragic example of arrested development,
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Acesta este un exemplu tragic de dezvoltare oprită,
09:53
or a budding green revolution stopped in its tracks.
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sau de revolutie verde abia inmugurita oprita din drumul ei.
09:56
And this is not just specific to Ethiopia,
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Şi acest lucru nu este specific doar pentru Etiopia,
09:58
but happens over and over, all over Africa.
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dar se intampla peste tot, pe tot cuprinsul Africii.
10:02
Well, I'm not here today to lament about the situation, or wring my hands.
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Ei bine, eu nu sunt aici, astăzi, pentru a ma lamenta despre situaţie, sau pentru a-mi rasuci mâinile.
10:09
I am here to tell you that change is in the air.
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Sunt aici să vă spun că schimbarea pluteste în aer.
10:13
Africa today is not the Africa waiting for aid solutions,
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Africa de astăzi nu este Africa ce aşteaptă solutii de ajutor,
10:17
or cookie-cutter foreign expert policy prescriptions.
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sau reţete prefabricate ale experţilor de politică externă.
10:21
Africa has learned, or is learning somewhat slowly,
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Africa a invatat, ori invata -- intr-un fel incet --
10:25
that markets don't happen by themselves.
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că pieţele nu se intampla de la sine.
10:28
In the 1980s, it was very fashionable
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In anii '80, era foarte la moda
10:31
to talk about getting prices right.
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sa vorbesti despre obtinerea pretului corect.
10:33
There was a very influential book about that,
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Era o carte foarte influenta despre aceasta,
10:35
which was mainly about getting governments out of the market.
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care era în principal despre eliminarea guvernelor de pe piaţă.
10:39
We now recognize that getting markets right is about not just
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Noi acum recunoastem ca, corectia pietelor nu se face doar prin
10:43
price incentives, but also investing in the right infrastructure
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stimulente pentru preturi, dar in egala masura prin investitii corecte in infrastructura
10:47
and the appropriate and necessary institutions to create
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si in institutii adecvate si necesare, care sa creeze
10:50
the conditions to unleash the power of innovation in the market.
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conditiile pentru a elibera puterea de inovare in piata.
10:55
When conditions are right, we know and see
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In cazul in care conditiile sunt propice, noi stim si vedem
10:58
that that innovation is ready to explode in rural Africa,
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faptul ca inovarea este gata sa explodeze in Africa rurala,
11:02
just like anywhere else.
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la fel ca oriunde în altă parte.
11:04
Nearly three years ago, I decided to leave my comfortable job
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Aproape trei ani in urma, am decis să părăsesc slujba mea confortabilă
11:08
as a World Bank senior economist in Washington
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de economist senior al Băncii Mondiale din Washington
11:11
and come back to my country of birth, Ethiopia,
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si sa ma intorc in tara mea natala, Etiopia,
11:13
after nearly 30 years abroad.
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dupa aproape 30 de ani in strainatate.
11:15
I did so for a simple reason.
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Am facut-o pentru un motiv simplu.
11:17
After having spent more than a decade
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După ce am petrecut mai mult de un deceniu,
11:21
understanding, studying, and trying to convince policymakers and donors
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înţelegând, studiind, şi încercând să conving factorii de decizie politică şi donatorii
11:26
about what was wrong with Africa's agricultural markets,
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despre ceea ce a fost greşit cu pieţele agricole ale Africii
11:28
I decided it was time to do something about it.
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am decis ca este timpul sa fac ceva pentru asta.
11:32
I currently lead, in Ethiopia, an exciting new initiative
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In momentul de fata conduc, in Etiopia, o initiativa noua
11:37
to establish the first Ethiopia Commodity Exchange, or ECX.
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de a infiinta prima Bursa Etiopiana de Produse , sau ECX.
11:41
Now, the commodity exchange itself, that concept,
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Acum, schimbul de mărfuri în sine, ca noţiune,
11:45
is not new to the world.
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nu este nou in lume.
11:47
In fact, in 1848, 82 grain merchants and farmers got together
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De fapt, în 1848, 82 negustori de cereale şi agricultori s-au reunit
11:51
in a small town at the crossroads of the Illinois River and Lake Michigan
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intr-un oras mic aflat la intersecţia râului Illinois şi Laculului Michigan
11:56
to establish a way to trade better amongst themselves.
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pentru a stabili o modalitate mai buna a schimburilor comerciale între ei.
12:02
That was, of course, the birth of the Chicago Board of Trade,
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Acesta a fost cu siguranta momentul in care s-a infiintat Chicago Board of Trade,
12:06
which is the most famous commodity exchange in the world.
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care este cea mai cunoscuta piata de marfuri din lume.
12:10
The Chicago Board of Trade was established then
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The Chicago Board of Trade s-a infiintat atunci
12:12
for precisely the same reasons
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pentru exact aceleasi motive
12:14
that our farmers today would benefit from a commodity exchange.
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pentru care agricultorii zilelor noastre ar beneficia de schimbul de marfuri.
12:19
In the American Midwest, farmers used to load grain onto barges
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In American Midwest, agricultorii obisnuiau sa incarce cereale in barje
12:22
and send it upriver to the Chicago market.
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şi sa le trimita in amonte catre piaţă din Chicago.
12:25
But once it arrived, if no buyer was to be found,
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Dar odata ajunse, daca nu se gaseau cumparatori,
12:30
or if prices suddenly dropped, farmers would incur tremendous losses.
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sau daca preturile scadeau brusc, agricultorii ar suporta pierderi enorme.
12:35
And in fact, would even dump the grain in Lake Michigan,
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Si de fapt, chiar ar rasturna cerealele in Lacul Michigan,
12:37
rather than spend more money transporting it back to their farms.
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decat sa cheltuie mai multi bani pentru ca sa le transporte inapoi la fermele lor.
12:41
Well, the need to avoid these huge risks and tremendous losses
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Ei bine, nevoia de a evita aceste riscuri enorme si pierderi impresionante
12:46
led to the birth of the futures market, and the underlying system
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a condus la nasterea viitoarelor piete, si a stat la baza sistemului
12:49
of grading grain and receipting -- issuing warehouse receipts
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de clasificare a cerealelor si receptie -- emiterea chitantelor de depozit
12:53
on the basis of which trade could be done.
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pe baza carora schimbul poate sa aiba loc.
12:55
From there, the greatest innovation of all came about in this market,
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De aici, cea mai mare inovatie din toate a aparut pe aceasta piata,
13:01
which is that buyers and sellers could transact grain
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care este faptul ca vanzatorii si cumparatorii pot tranzactiona cereale
13:04
without actually having to physically or visually inspect the grain.
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de fapt fără a trebui sa inspecteze fizic sau vizual cerealele.
13:09
That meant that grain could be traded across tremendous distances,
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Aceasta inseamna ca cerealele pot fi tranzactionate la distante enorme,
13:12
and even across time -- as far forward as 18 months into the future.
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si chiar in timp -- cu pana la 18 luni in viitor.
13:17
This innovation is at the heart of the transformation of American agriculture,
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Aceasta inovatie sta la baza transformarii agriculturii americane,
13:21
and the rise of Chicago to a global market,
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si la avansarea orasului Chicago ca piata globala,
13:25
agricultural market, superpower from where it was, a small regional town.
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piata agricola, superputere de la ce era -- un mic oras regional.
13:30
Now, over the last century,
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Acum, in ultimul secol,
13:33
we tend to think of commodity exchanges as the purview
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avem tendinţa să ne gândim la bursele de mărfuri ca un subiect de competenta
13:36
of Western industrialized countries,
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tarilor industrializate vestice.
13:38
and that the reference prices for cotton, coffee, cocoa --
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Si ca pretul de referinta pentru bumbac, cafea, cacao --
13:41
products produced mainly in the south --
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produse fabricate in principal in Sud --
13:44
are actually a reference price, or a price discovered in these
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sunt de fapt preturi de referinta, sau un pret descoperit in aceste
13:49
organized commodity exchanges in the northern countries.
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schimburi organizate de marfuri din tarile Nordice.
13:53
But that is actually changing.
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Dar de fapt aceasta se schimba.
13:55
And we're seeing a shift --
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Si noi asistam la o schimbare,
13:57
powered mainly because of information technology --
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generata in principal datorita tehnologiei informatiei,
14:00
a shift in market dominance towards the emerging markets.
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O schimbare in dominatia pietei spre pietele emergente.
14:03
And over the last decade, you see that the share of Western exchanges --
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Si in ultimul deceniu, veti observa ca ponderea schimburilor vestice --
14:08
and this is the U.S. share of exchanges in the world --
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si acest lucru este proportia schimburilor SUA in lume --
14:14
has gone down by nearly half in just the last decade.
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a scazut cu aproape jumătate în doar ultimul deceniu.
14:17
Similarly, there's been explosive growth in India, for example,
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Similar, este o crestere exploziva in India, de exemplu,
14:21
where rural farmers are using exchanges -- growing here
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unde agricultorii rurali folosesc schimburile -- crestere aici
14:25
over the last three years by 270 percent a year.
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în ultimii trei ani, de 270 la sută pe an.
14:30
This is powered by low-cost VSAT technology,
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Acest lucru este alimentat de tehnologia VSAT ieftina,
14:33
aggressively trying to reach farmers to bring them into the market.
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incercand agresiv sa ajunga la agricultori si sa-i aduca in piata.
14:37
China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, three years ago,
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China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, trei ani in urma --
14:41
2004, overtook the Chicago Board of Trade to become
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2004 -- a pus stapanire pe Chicago Board of Trade devenind
14:44
the second largest commodity exchange in the world.
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a doua piata de schimburi de marfuri din lume.
14:48
Now, in Ethiopia, we're in the process of designing
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Acum, in Etiopia, noi ne aflam in proces de proiectare
14:52
the first organized Ethiopia Commodity Exchange.
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a primei Piete Etiopiene de Marfuri organizate.
14:55
We're not trying to cut and paste the Chicago model
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Noi nu incercam sa copiem modelul Chicago
14:58
or the India model, but creating a system uniquely tailored
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sau modelul Indian, ci sa creem un sistem unic adaptat
15:01
to Ethiopia's needs and realities,
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la nevoile si realitatilor etiopiene,
15:03
Ethiopia's small farmers.
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micilor agricultori Etiopieni.
15:05
So, the ECX is an Ethiopian exchange for Ethiopia.
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Asa ca, ECX este schimbul Etiopian pentru Etiopia.
15:08
We're creating a system that serves all market actors,
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Noi creeeam un sistem care serveste tuturor actorilor pietii.
15:12
that creates integrity, trust, efficiency, transparency
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Aceasta creeaza integritate, incredere, eficienta, transparenta
15:18
and enables small farmers to manage the risks that I have described.
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si permite micilor agricultori sa gestioneze riscurile pe care le-am descris.
15:22
In the design of our commodity exchange in Ethiopia,
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In proiectarea schimbului de marfuri in Etiopia,
15:25
we've done something rather unique, which is to
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noi am facut ceva mai degraba unic, care este de a
15:27
take the approach of an integrated perspective,
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aborda dintr-o perspectiva integrata
15:29
or what we call the ECX Edge.
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sau ceea ce noi numim ECX Edge.
15:32
The ECX Edge pretty much creates the entire ecosystem
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ECX Edge creaza in mare parte intregul eco-sistem
15:36
in which the market will develop itself.
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in care piata se va dezvolta de la sine.
15:39
And this is because one of the things we've learned
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Şi asta pentru că unul din lucrurile pe care le-am învăţat
15:42
over the last decade of studying market development in Africa
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in ultima decada de studii privind dezvoltarea pietei in Africa
15:45
is that the piecemeal approach does not work.
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este faptul că abordare fragmentată nu funcţionează.
15:48
You've got one donor trying to develop market information,
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Ai un donor care incearca sa dezvolte informatiile din piata,
15:51
another trying to work on or sponsor grades and standards,
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altul incearca sa faca sau sponsorizeze gradele si standardele
15:55
another ICT, and yet another on warehousing, or warehouse receipts.
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un altul ICT, si inca unul pentru depozitare -- sau pentru chitantele de depozit.
16:01
In our approach in Ethiopia,
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In abordarea noastra in Etiopia,
16:03
we've decided to put together the entire ecosystem,
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noi am decis sa punem impreuna intregul eco-sistem,
16:07
or environment, in which trade takes place.
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sau mediu, in care schimburile iau parte.
16:10
That means that the exchange will operate a trading system,
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Aceasta inseamna ca schimbul va opera un sistem de comercializare,
16:14
which will initially start as an open outcry,
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care va începe iniţial ca o licitatie prin strigare.
16:18
because we don't think the country's ready for full electronic trading.
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Pentru ca noi nu credem ca tara este pregatita pentru un sistem de comert complet electronic.
16:21
But at the same time, we'll do something which I think no exchange
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Dar, in acelasi timp, noi vom face ceva care eu cred ca nici un comert
16:23
in the world has ever done, which is itself to operate something like
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din lume nu a facut vreodata, care in sine opereaza ca ceva similar
16:28
an Internet cafe in the rural areas.
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Internet cafe-urilor din zonele rurale.
16:30
So that farmers and small traders
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Asa ca agricultorii si micii comericanti
16:33
can actually come to a terminal center -- what we call
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pot efectiv sa vina la un centru terminal -- ceea ce noi numim
16:36
the remote access terminal centers -- and actually,
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centre terminale la distanta -- si de fapt,
16:39
without having to buy a computer or figure out how to dial up
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fara sa fie nevoie sa cumperi un computer sau sa inveti cum sa faci o conexiune dial up
16:41
or any of those things, simply see the trading
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sau alte lucruri din acestea, sa vezi pur si simplu comertul
16:44
that's happening on the Addis Ababa trading floor.
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care are loc la bursa de comert din Adiss Ababa.
16:48
At the same time, what's very fundamental to this market is that --
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In acelasi timp, ce este fundamental pentru aceasta piata este ca --
16:51
and again, an innovation that we've designed for our exchange --
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si din nou, o inovatie pe care noi am proiectat-o pentru bursa noastra --
16:55
is that the exchange will operate warehouses around the country,
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este ca schimburile vor opera in silozuri pe intreg teritoriul tarii,
16:58
in which grade certification and warehouse receipting will be done.
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in care certificatele-grade si chitantele-depozit sunt eliberate.
17:02
And in turn, we'll operate an in-house clearing system,
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Si in schimb noi vom opera un sistem propriu de compensare,
17:05
to assure that payment is done appropriately,
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pentru a asigura ca plata este facuta corespunzator,
17:09
in the right amount and at the right time,
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in suma convenita si la timpul potrivit,
17:12
so that basically, we create trust and integrity in the system.
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asa ca de fapt noi creem incredere si integritate in sistem.
17:16
Obviously, we work with exchange actors,
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Evident noi lucram cu actorii schimbului,
17:19
and as we're developing the exchange market itself,
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si pe masura ce dezvoltam piata de schimburi insasi,
17:22
we're also developing the regulatory infrastructure and legal framework,
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noi de asemenea dezvoltam infrastructura de reglementari si cadrul legal --
17:26
the overarching legal framework for making this market work.
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cadrul legal general pentru a face această piaţă sa functioneze.
17:29
So, in fact, our proclamation
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Asa ca de fapt, proclamatia noastra
17:32
is going to parliament next month.
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ajunge in parlament luna viitoare.
17:35
What's really important is that the ECX will operate a market information system
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Ce e cu adevărat important este că ECX va opera un sistem de informaţii de piaţă
17:40
to disseminate prices in real time to farmers around the country,
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pentru a difuza preţurile în timp real catre agricultorii din tara,
17:44
using VSAT technology to bring an electronic price dissemination
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folosind tehnologia VSAT pentru a introduce diseminarea electronica a preţului,
17:49
directly to farmers.
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direct catre argicultori.
17:51
What this does is transforms, fundamentally,
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Ceea ce aceasta transforma, fundamental,
17:54
the farmers' relationship to the market.
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este relatia agricultorului cu piata.
17:57
Whereas before the farmer used to think local --
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Intrucat inainte agricultorul era obisnuit sa gandeasca local --
18:00
meaning that he or she would go to the nearest local market,
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intelegand ca el sau ea trebuiau sa mearga la cea mai apropriata piata locala,
18:03
eight to 10 kilometers away on average,
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opt la zece kilometri departare in medie,
18:05
and sell whatever they happened to have,
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si sa vanda ceea ce se intampla ca ei sa aiba,
18:07
without any idea of what the price premium or anything else was --
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fara nici o idee despre pretul mediu sau orice altceva a fost --
18:11
now farmers come with knowledge of what prices are at the national market.
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acum agricultorii vin cunoscand care sunt preturile la nivel national.
18:15
And they start to think national, and even global.
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Si ei incep sa gandeasca national, si chiar global.
18:18
They start to make not only commercial marketing decisions,
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Ei încep să facă nu numai decizii comerciale de piaţă,
18:22
but also planting decisions, on the basis of information
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dar de asemenea decizii in ce priveste plantarea, pe baza informatiilor
18:25
coming from the futures price market.
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venite din piata preturilor viitoare.
18:29
And they come to the market knowing what grades their products
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Si ei vin la piata stiind ce grade vor avea produsele lor
18:33
will achieve in terms of a price premium.
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in termenii pretului premium.
18:36
So all of this will transform farmers.
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Deci toate acestea vor transforma agricultorii.
18:38
It will also transform the way traders do business.
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Si de asemenea vor transforma modul in care comerciantii vor face afaceri.
18:41
It will stop them from doing simple, back-to-back, limited arbitrage
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Acesta-i va opri să facă acest simplu arbitraj limitat, back-to-back,
18:47
to really thinking strategically about how to move grain
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si sa gândeasca strategic într-adevăr despre cum să mute cereale
18:50
across long distances from [surplus regions] to [deficit areas].
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peste distanţe lungi de la zonele cu deficit, la regiunile excedentare
18:54
Can Ethiopia do this?
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Poate Etiopia sa faca asta?
18:57
It seems very ambitious.
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Pare foarte ambitios.
18:59
But it will create new opportunities.
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Dar va crea noi oportunitati.
19:01
We believe that this initiative requires great political will,
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Noi credem că această iniţiativă necesită o mare voinţă politică,
19:04
and we'll have to align the financial sector, as well as the ICT sector,
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si va trebui sa alinieze sectorul financiar precum si sectorul ICT,
19:09
and really even the underlying legal framework.
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si chiar si cadrul legislativ care sta la baza acestora.
19:13
We believe that the winds of change are here, and that we can do it.
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Noi credem ca vantul schimbarii a sosit, si ca noi putem sa facem asta.
19:17
ECX is the market for Ethiopia's new millennium,
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ECX este piata Etiopiei noului mileniu,
19:21
which starts in about eight months.
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care va incepe in aproximativ opt luni.
19:25
The last parliament of our century opened with our president
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Ultimul parlament al secolului nostru deschis de presedintele nostru
19:29
announcing to the country that this was the most important
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anuntand tarii ca acesta a fost cea mai importanta
19:32
economic initiative for the country today.
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initiativa economica a tarii de azi.
19:34
We believe that the stakes are high,
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Noi credem ca mizele sunt mari,
19:37
but that the returns will be even greater.
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dar ca beneficiile vor fi si mai mari.
19:40
ECX, moreover, can become a trading platform for a pan-African market
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In plus ECX poate deveni o platformă de tranzacţionare pentru o piaţă pan-africană
19:45
in agricultural commodities.
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a bunurilor agricole.
19:47
Ethiopia's domestic market is about one billion dollars of value.
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Piaţa internă Etiopiană este de aproximativ un miliard de dolari ca valoare.
19:51
And we feel that over the next five years,
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Si noi credem ca in urmatorii cinci ani,
19:55
if Ethiopia can capture even 40 percent, just 40 percent, of the domestic market,
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daca Etiopia ar putea capta chiar 40 de procente, numai 40 de procente ale pietii interne
20:01
and add just 25 percent value to that market, the value of the market doubles.
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si adaugand numai 25 de procente ca valoare acestei piete, valoarea pietei se dubleaza.
20:06
Ethiopia's agricultural market is 30 percent higher
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Piata agricola a Etiopiei este cu 30 de procente mai mare
20:09
than South Africa's grain production,
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decat productia de cereala a Africii de Sud --
20:13
and, in fact, Ethiopia is the second largest maize producer in Africa.
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si de fapt, Etiopia este al doilea producator de porumb in Africa.
20:16
So the potential is there.
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Asa ca potentialul este acolo.
20:18
The will is there.
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Vointa este acolo.
20:20
The commitment is there.
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Angajamentul este acolo.
20:22
So we feel that we have a winning value proposition
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Noi credem ca noi avem o propunere castigatore valoaroasa
20:26
to transform farmers' choices, to grow our agriculture,
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sa transformam optiunile fermierilor, sa crestem agricultura noastra,
20:30
and to change Africa.
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si de a schimba Africa.
20:32
So, we are in the business of finding our happiness.
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Asa ca, noi suntem in afacerea gasirii propriei noastre fericiri.
20:36
Thank you very much.
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Vă multumesc.
20:37
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eleni Gabre-Madhin - EconomistEleni Gabre-Madhin is working to build Ethiopia's first commodities market. Re-establishing the profit motive for farmers, she believes, could help turn the world's largest recipient of food aid into a regional food basket.
Why you should listen
Economist Eleni Gabre-Madhin has ambitious vision -- to found the first commodities market in Ethiopia, bringing rates and standards (not to mention trading systems, warehousing and data centers) to the trade of crops.
Gabre-Madhin left her earlier job, as a World Bank senior economist in Washington, DC, in part because she was disturbed by the 2002 famine in Ethiopia -- after a bumper crop of maize the year before. With prices depressed, many farmers simply left their grain in the field in 2001. But when the rains failed in 2002, a famine of 1984 proportions threatened the country. Her dream: to build a market that protects the African farmer, who is too often living at the mercy of forces beyond his or her control.
The director of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Madhin studies market reforms, market institutions, and structural transformation in Africa, and works to create "a world free of hunger and malnutrition."
Eleni Gabre-Madhin | Speaker | TED.com