TEDGlobal 2007
Eleni Gabre-Madhin: A commodities exchange for Ethiopia
Eleni Gabre-Madhin 談有關衣索比亞的經濟狀況
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經濟學家Eleni Gabre-Madhin概述她將要在衣索比亞市場雄心勃勃的建立第一個商品市場。她的計劃會創造財富、縮小農夫的風險並把世界最大的糧食救援國變成地區性的食物籃。
Eleni Gabre-Madhin - Economist
Eleni Gabre-Madhin is working to build Ethiopia's first commodities market. Re-establishing the profit motive for farmers, she believes, could help turn the world's largest recipient of food aid into a regional food basket. Full bio
Eleni Gabre-Madhin is working to build Ethiopia's first commodities market. Re-establishing the profit motive for farmers, she believes, could help turn the world's largest recipient of food aid into a regional food basket. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
You know, there's a small country nestled in the Himalayan Mountains,
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你們知道，有一個小國家坐落在喜馬拉雅山山脈上。
00:30
far from these beautiful mountains, where the people
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在這些美麗的山脈的遠方，
00:32
of the Kingdom of Bhutan have decided to do something different,
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不丹王國的人們決定做一件不一樣的事，
00:35
which is to measure their gross national happiness
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那就是測量他們的國民快樂指數，
00:38
rather than their gross national product.
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而非他們的國民生產毛額。
00:40
And why not?
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為何不呢?
00:42
After all, happiness is not just a privilege for the lucky few,
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畢竟，快樂不是少數幸運者的特權，
00:46
but a fundamental human right for all.
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而是所有人的權利。
00:49
And what is happiness?
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那麼，什麼是快樂?
00:51
Happiness is the freedom of choice.
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快樂是能夠自由地選擇。
00:53
The freedom to chose where to live,
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自由地選擇要住哪裡，
00:55
what to do, what to buy, what to sell,
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做什麼，買什麼
00:58
from whom, to whom, when and how.
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-向誰買，賣什麼，怎麼賣，何時賣，賣給誰。
01:02
Where does choice come from?
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選擇是從哪來的?
01:05
And who gets to express it, and how do we express it?
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有誰能將它表現出來? 我們又該如何表示它?
01:08
Well, one way to express choice is through the market.
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其實，表現選擇的方式之一就是透過市場。
01:13
Well-functioning markets provide choices, and ultimately,
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運作良好的市場提供多種選擇，最終，
01:16
the ability to express one's pursuit for happiness.
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也展現一個人追求快樂的能力。
01:21
The great Indian economist, Amartya Sen, was awarded the Nobel prize
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印度偉大的經濟學家，Amartya Sen (阿瑪特雅深)曾獲諾貝爾獎。
01:28
for demonstrating that famine is not so much about
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他證實了饑荒不完全和食物的供給量有關，
01:31
the availability of food supply, but rather the ability to acquire
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反而在於某人有取得食物，
01:35
or entitle oneself to that food through the market.
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或是有權力透過市場取得食物的能力。
01:39
In 1984, in what can only be considered one of the
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1984年，在我的國家，衣索比亞，
01:43
greatest crimes of humanity, nearly one million people died of starvation
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發生了可被視為人類最大罪行之一的事 --
01:47
in my country of birth, Ethiopia.
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將近一百萬人死於飢餓。
01:49
Not because there was not enough food --
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並不是因為糧食不足 --
01:51
because there was actually a surplus of food
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因為當時國家南部肥沃區域
01:54
in the fertile regions of the south parts of the country --
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實際上是糧食過剩 --
01:58
but because in the north, people could not access
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而是因為北部的人們
02:00
or entitle themselves to that food.
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無法取得那些食物。
02:02
That was a turning point for my life.
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那是我人生的轉捩點。
02:04
Most Africans today, by far, are farmers.
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到目前為止，今天大多數的非洲人都是農夫。
02:07
And most of Africa's farmers are, by and large,
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而且，一般來說，
02:11
small farmers in terms of land that they operate, and very, very small
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大部分的非洲農夫，按所經營的土地而言，都是小農夫;
02:15
farmers in terms of the capital they have at their disposal.
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還有那些按可使用資金非常有限而言的小小農夫。
02:19
African agriculture today is among, or is, the most under-capitalized in the world.
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非洲是世界上農業資金嚴重不足的國家之一，甚至是最不足的。
02:25
Only seven percent of arable land in Africa is irrigated,
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和亞洲百分之四十的可耕地比起來，
02:30
compared to 40 percent in Asia.
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非洲只有百分之七的可耕地受到灌溉；
02:32
African farmers only use some 22 kilograms of fertilizer per hectare,
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和亞洲每公頃使用144公斤的肥料比起來，
02:39
compared to 144 in Asia.
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非洲農夫每公頃只使用22公斤的肥料。
02:43
Road density is six times greater in Asia than it is in rural Africa.
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亞洲的公路密度比非洲郊區大六倍。
02:48
There are eight times more tractors in Latin America,
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拉丁美洲的拖拉機數目是非洲是八倍；
02:51
and three times more tractors in Asia, than in Africa.
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亞洲的拖拉機數目是非洲的三倍。
02:56
The small farmer in Africa today lives a life without much choice,
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非洲小農夫的生活並沒有太多選擇，
03:00
and therefore without much freedom.
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因此也就沒有太多的自由。
03:02
His livelihood is predetermined
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他的生活
03:04
by the conditions of grinding poverty.
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被困苦不堪的環境所注定。
03:07
He comes to the market when prices are lowest,
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收成之後，他帶著少量且劣質，
03:10
with the meager fruits of his hard labor, just after the harvest,
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卻是辛苦所種的水果到市場上。那是市場價格最低的時候，
03:13
because he has no choice.
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但他沒得選。
03:15
She comes back to the market
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幾個月後，
03:18
some months later, when prices are highest, in what we call
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當市場價格最高的時候，也就是我們所謂的淡季，
03:21
the lean season -- when food is scarce --
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糧食缺乏的時候，她再回到市場上，
03:24
because she has to feed her family and has no choice.
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因為她要養活她的家人，她沒得選。
03:30
The real question is, how can markets be developed in rural Africa
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真正的問題是，
03:35
to harness the power of innovation and entrepreneurship
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市場要如何在非洲郊區發展，
03:38
that we know exists?
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才能利用創新和企業家精神?
03:40
Another notable economist, Theodore Schultz,
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另一位著名的經濟學家，Theodore Schultz(舒爾茲)，
03:45
in 1974 won the Nobel prize for demonstrating that farmers
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1974年獲得了諾貝爾獎，因他證實了農夫有效率，
03:49
are efficient, but poor.
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卻仍是貧窮。
03:51
Meaning, in fact, that farmers are rational
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意思是說，事實上農夫和大家一樣，
03:54
and profit-minded just like everybody else.
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是理性的，是想賺錢的。
03:56
Well, we don't need, now,
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好啦，我們不需要更多的諾貝爾獎
03:59
any more Nobel prizes to know that farmers want a fair shake
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來得知農夫和大家一樣，
04:02
at the market and want to make money, just like everyone else.
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想要在市場上有公平的待遇以及想賺錢。
04:06
And one thing is clear, which is at least now we know
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有一件事很清楚，至少我們現在都知道，
04:10
that Africa is open for business.
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非洲開放買賣，
04:12
And that business is agriculture.
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而這買賣就是農業。
04:16
Over two decades ago, the world insisted to Africa that markets
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二十多年前，世界堅持非洲市場自由化，
04:20
must be liberalized, that economies must be structurally adjusted.
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也就是經濟必須在結構上有調整。
04:25
This meant that governments were to remove themselves
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這意味著政府
04:27
from the business of buying and selling --
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要退出市場，
04:29
which they did rather inefficiently --
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（雖然他們很沒有效率，）
04:31
and let the private market do its magic.
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讓自由是市場施展自己的魔法。
04:34
Well, what happened over the last 25 years?
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好啦，那過去的那二十五年發生了什麼事?
04:37
Did Africa feed itself?
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非洲自給自足了嗎?
04:39
Did our farmers turn into highly productive commercial actors?
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我們的農夫有了高產量的商業行為嗎?
04:43
I think we're all in this room,
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我想我們會在這裡，
04:46
probably, because we know that, in fact, Africa is the only region
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很可能的，是因為我們知道事實上
04:50
in the world where hunger and malnutrition are projected to go up
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非洲是全球唯一一個預期未來十年飢餓人口和營養不良人口
04:54
over the next 10 years,
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會持續增加的地區。
04:56
where the food import bill is now double
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現今這裡的糧食進口帳單
04:59
what it was 20 years ago,
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是二十年前的一倍，
05:01
where food production per capita has
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每人平均的糧食產量停滯不變，
05:05
stagnated, and where fertilizer use has declined rather than increased.
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而且肥料的使用不但沒有增加反減少。
05:11
So why didn't agriculture markets perform to expectations?
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為什麼農業市場沒有表現的如預期中的那樣?
05:14
The market reforms prompted by the West --
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西方國家提出市場改革，
05:16
and I've spent some 15 years traveling around the continent
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而我也花了十五年之久遊走非洲大陸，
05:21
doing research on agricultural markets, and have interviewed
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對農業市場進行研究，
05:24
traders in 10 to 15 countries in this continent, hundreds of traders --
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且訪問了10至15 個國家上百位商人，
05:29
trying to understand what went wrong with our market reform.
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試著了解我們的市場改革到底哪裡出了問題。
05:34
And it seems to me that the reforms might have
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我發現這改革
05:38
thrown the baby out with the bath water.
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似乎排除了最重要的東西。
05:40
Like its agriculture,
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以農業為例，
05:42
Africa's markets are highly under-capitalized and inefficient.
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非洲市場上的資金極為不足，且非常沒有效率。
05:46
We know from our work around the continent
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從我們所做的研究可得知，
05:48
that transaction costs of reaching the market,
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到達市場之前的手續費
05:51
and the risks of transacting in rural, agriculture markets,
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和在郊區的農業市場的交易風險
05:55
are extremely high.
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是非常高的。
05:57
In fact, only one third of agricultural output
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實際上，非洲只有三分之一的農產品
06:00
produced in Africa even reaches the market.
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能達到市場。
06:03
Africa's markets are weak not only because of weak infrastructure
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非洲市場會如此的弱
06:07
in terms of roads and telecommunications, but also because
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不僅僅因為公路和電訊的基本建設不發達，
06:11
of the virtual absence of necessary market institutions, such as
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也因為在實質方面缺乏市場制度，
06:15
market information, grades and standards,
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如市場資訊，等級和標準，
06:19
and reliable ways to connect buyers and sellers.
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以及聯繫買賣雙方的可靠方式。
06:22
Because of this, commodity buyers and sellers typically transact in small circles,
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因為這樣，買賣雙方通常會在小範圍內，
06:27
in narrow networks of people they know and trust.
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和自己熟識、信任的人做交易。
06:31
And because of that, as grain changes hands --
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所以，隨著穀物轉手
06:35
and I've measured that it changes hands four, five times in
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－而且我計算過，
06:39
its trajectory from the farmer to the consumer --
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從農夫到消費者需要轉4、5次。
06:42
every time it changes hands -- and I've seen this all over rural Africa --
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每轉手一次，就換一次包裝，
06:46
it also changes sacks.
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全非洲都是如此。
06:48
And I thought that was incredibly peculiar.
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我覺得這真是太怪異了。
06:50
And really realized that that was because -- as traders would tell me
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後來我才真正明白，也是商人所一再的告訴我的，
06:53
over and over -- that's the only way people know what they're getting
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只有這樣，人們才會知道
06:56
in terms of the quantity and the product quality.
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他們所得到的數量和品質。
07:00
And that actually has huge implications
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這裡頭含有強列的暗示，
07:03
for the ability of markets to quickly respond to price signals,
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例如市場反應市場價格
07:08
and situations where there are deficits, for example.
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和資金不足的能力。
07:11
It also has very high cost implications.
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這樣的做法隱含非常高的成本。
07:14
I have measured that 26 percent of the marketing margin
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我計算出26%的邊際市場
07:17
is simply due to the fact that, because of the absence
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會這樣一直換包裝，
07:19
of grades and standards and market information,
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純粹是因為缺乏市場資訊，
07:23
sacks have to be constantly changed.
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等級和標準。
07:26
And this leads to very high handling costs.
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這導致非常高的手續費。
07:29
For their part, small farmers, who produce the bulk of our agricultural output in Africa,
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對小農民而言，就是那些生產非洲大部分農產品的人，
07:34
come to the market with virtually no information at all -- blind --
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幾乎是盲目地到市場上，他們一點資訊都沒有，
07:38
trusting that they're going to have
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卻相信自己的產品
07:41
some sort of demand for their produce,
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會有一定的需求。
07:44
and completely at the mercy of the merchants
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他們在所知道的、唯一一個市場（最近的那個）上
07:48
in the only market, the nearest local market they know --
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完全任由商人擺布，
07:52
where they're unable to negotiate better prices or reduce their risk.
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而他們講不到更好的價錢或降低自己的風險。
07:55
Speaking of risk, we have seen that price volatility
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講到風險，我們已經看到
07:59
of food crops in Africa is the highest in the world.
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非洲的糧食價格波動率是全球最高的。
08:01
In Africa, small farmers bear the brunt of this risk.
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在非洲，小農民首當其衝地面對這些風險。
08:05
In fact, in my view, there is no region of the world and no period in history
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實際上，在我看來，歷史上沒有一個地區的農民
08:14
that farmers have been expected to bear the kind of market risk
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會期待承受非洲農民
08:15
that Africa's farmers have to bear.
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所承受的市場風險。
08:18
And in my view, there is simply no place in the world
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在我看來，
08:20
that has grown its agriculture on the kind of risk
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世界上沒有一個地方的農業發展
08:24
that our farmers in Africa today face.
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面臨像非洲所面臨的風險一樣。
08:27
In Ethiopia, for example, the variation in maize prices
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打個比方，在衣索比亞，
08:31
from year to year is as much as 50 percent annually.
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玉米每年價格的變化高達百分之五十。
08:34
This kind of market risk is mind-boggling, and has direct implications
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這樣的市場風險令人難以置信，且不僅和鼓勵農夫
08:38
for not only the incentives of farmers to invest
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投資高生產率的技術有直接的牽連，
08:42
in higher productivity technology, such as modern seeds and fertilizers,
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例如現代種子和肥料，
08:47
but also direct implications for food security.
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也和食品安全有直接的關係。
08:50
To give you an example, between 2001 and 2002,
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舉例來說，2001到2002這兩年，
08:54
Ethiopian maize farmers produced two years of bumper harvest.
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衣索比亞種植玉米的農民有著異常多的收穫。
08:57
That in turn, because of the weak marketing system,
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然而，因著供給大於需求，
09:00
led to an 80 percent collapse in maize prices in the country.
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導致了這國家的玉米價格下跌了80%。
09:05
This made it unprofitable for some farmers to even harvest the grain from the fields.
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這使得光是收割穀物都對農夫來說毫無利潤可言。
09:10
And we calculated that some 300,000 tons of grain
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我們統計，2002年年初時，
09:13
was left in the fields to rot in early 2002.
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約有三萬噸的穀物留在田裡，任憑腐壞。
09:17
Not six months later, in July 2002, Ethiopia announced a major food crisis,
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過了六個月，2002年七月，衣索比亞宣布重大的糧食危機，
09:23
to the same proportions as 1984: 14 million people at risk of starvation.
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規模和1984年，一千四百萬人面臨饑荒一樣。
09:28
What also happened that year
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同年還發生了一件事，
09:31
is in the areas where there were good rains, and where farmers
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在雨水充沛和農民有穀物生產過剩的地區，
09:35
had previously produced surplus grain, farmers had decided
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農民決定撤離肥料市場，
09:39
to withdraw from the fertilizer market, not use fertilizer
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不使用肥料，
09:43
and actually had dropped their use of fertilizer by 27 percent.
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實際上降低了27%的肥料使用量。
09:47
This is a tragic example of arrested development,
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這是發展延滯的一個悲慘的例子，
09:53
or a budding green revolution stopped in its tracks.
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或者是正萌芽的變革停止往前。
09:56
And this is not just specific to Ethiopia,
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這不僅僅發生在衣索比亞而已，
09:58
but happens over and over, all over Africa.
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而它是一而再，再而三的在非洲發生。
10:02
Well, I'm not here today to lament about the situation, or wring my hands.
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我今天來這裡不是為了要哀悼這情形，或表示我的憤怒或不滿。
10:09
I am here to tell you that change is in the air.
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我來是要告訴你們，事情悄悄地在改變。
10:13
Africa today is not the Africa waiting for aid solutions,
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現今的非洲不再是已往等待物資救援，
10:17
or cookie-cutter foreign expert policy prescriptions.
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或是落入外國專家政策法規的俗套裡的非洲。
10:21
Africa has learned, or is learning somewhat slowly,
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非洲已學會，或是正在學懂 －儘管有點慢－
10:25
that markets don't happen by themselves.
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市場不會自己形成和發展。
10:28
In the 1980s, it was very fashionable
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在二十世紀的80年代，很流行說
10:31
to talk about getting prices right.
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要取得正確的價格。
10:33
There was a very influential book about that,
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當時有一本影響這件事很深的書，
10:35
which was mainly about getting governments out of the market.
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主要是說到要把政府趕出市場。
10:39
We now recognize that getting markets right is about not just
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現在我們明白了，要讓市場正確運作，
10:43
price incentives, but also investing in the right infrastructure
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不只是價格刺激，還需要投資正確的基礎建設
10:47
and the appropriate and necessary institutions to create
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和合適且必須的機構，
10:50
the conditions to unleash the power of innovation in the market.
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好製造釋放市場創造力的環境。
10:55
When conditions are right, we know and see
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當環境對了，我們就知道且能看見
10:58
that that innovation is ready to explode in rural Africa,
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非洲郊區的創造力準備好要爆發了，
11:02
just like anywhere else.
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就像任何其他地方一樣。
11:04
Nearly three years ago, I decided to leave my comfortable job
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約三年前，我決定離開我在華盛頓世界銀行
11:08
as a World Bank senior economist in Washington
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擔任資深經濟學者的舒適工作。
11:11
and come back to my country of birth, Ethiopia,
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過了將近三十年在國外生活，
11:13
after nearly 30 years abroad.
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我回到我的出生地，衣索比亞。
11:15
I did so for a simple reason.
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原因很簡單。
11:17
After having spent more than a decade
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我花了十年以上的時間研究，
11:21
understanding, studying, and trying to convince policymakers and donors
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並試圖使決策者和捐贈者
11:26
about what was wrong with Africa's agricultural markets,
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信服非洲農業市場的問題，
11:28
I decided it was time to do something about it.
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我覺得該是行動的時候了。
11:32
I currently lead, in Ethiopia, an exciting new initiative
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最近我在衣索比亞領導一個令人興奮的新方案，
11:37
to establish the first Ethiopia Commodity Exchange, or ECX.
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為了建立衣索比亞第一個商品交易所，簡稱ECX。
11:41
Now, the commodity exchange itself, that concept,
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如今商品交易本身對大家來說
11:45
is not new to the world.
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並不是新概念。
11:47
In fact, in 1848, 82 grain merchants and farmers got together
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事實上，在1848年，82名穀商和農民
11:51
in a small town at the crossroads of the Illinois River and Lake Michigan
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聚集在伊利諾斯河和密西根湖交叉點的一個小城鎮，
11:56
to establish a way to trade better amongst themselves.
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試圖建立一個對彼此更有利的交易方法。
12:02
That was, of course, the birth of the Chicago Board of Trade,
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芝加哥交易所 -- 全球最有名的商品交易所，
12:06
which is the most famous commodity exchange in the world.
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就是這樣誕生的。
12:10
The Chicago Board of Trade was established then
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和芝加哥交易所完全一模一樣的原因，
12:12
for precisely the same reasons
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就是希望我們的農民
12:14
that our farmers today would benefit from a commodity exchange.
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也能從商品交易中獲利。
12:19
In the American Midwest, farmers used to load grain onto barges
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在美國中西部，農夫過去往往會把穀物
12:22
and send it upriver to the Chicago market.
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用駁船載往上游到芝加哥市場。
12:25
But once it arrived, if no buyer was to be found,
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然而當貨物抵達，卻找不到買家
12:30
or if prices suddenly dropped, farmers would incur tremendous losses.
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或是價格突然暴跌，農夫就得承受重大的損失。
12:35
And in fact, would even dump the grain in Lake Michigan,
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事實上，他們甚至會把穀物投入密西根湖裡，
12:37
rather than spend more money transporting it back to their farms.
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也不願花更多的錢把穀物運回農場。
12:41
Well, the need to avoid these huge risks and tremendous losses
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為了避免這些巨大的風險和重大的損失
12:46
led to the birth of the futures market, and the underlying system
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導致期貨市場的出現，
12:49
of grading grain and receipting -- issuing warehouse receipts
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那麼穀物分類和驗收的基礎系統 -- 基於貿易核發倉庫收據
12:53
on the basis of which trade could be done.
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是可以做到的。
12:55
From there, the greatest innovation of all came about in this market,
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從這裡開始，市場最偉大的創新出現了，
13:01
which is that buyers and sellers could transact grain
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買賣雙方不需親自審查
13:04
without actually having to physically or visually inspect the grain.
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也能夠完成交易。
13:09
That meant that grain could be traded across tremendous distances,
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這表示穀物的交易能夠跨越很長的距離，
13:12
and even across time -- as far forward as 18 months into the future.
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甚至是時間 -- 能夠提前做18個月後的交易。
13:17
This innovation is at the heart of the transformation of American agriculture,
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這項創新是美國農業核心的變化，
13:21
and the rise of Chicago to a global market,
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使得芝加哥從一個小小的地方城鎮，
13:25
agricultural market, superpower from where it was, a small regional town.
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躍昇為國際市場、農業市場和一個強大的都會區。
13:30
Now, over the last century,
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現在，在上一個世紀，
13:33
we tend to think of commodity exchanges as the purview
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我們一直覺得商品交易
13:36
of Western industrialized countries,
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是西方工業化國家的特權。
13:38
and that the reference prices for cotton, coffee, cocoa --
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南部主要出產的
13:41
products produced mainly in the south --
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棉花、咖啡、可可的參考價格，
13:44
are actually a reference price, or a price discovered in these
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實際上是北方國家
13:49
organized commodity exchanges in the northern countries.
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有組織的商品交易所訂定的參考價格。
13:53
But that is actually changing.
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但這確實有在改變。
13:55
And we're seeing a shift --
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我們正目睹著改變，
13:57
powered mainly because of information technology --
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這改變主要是由資訊科技所驅動的。
14:00
a shift in market dominance towards the emerging markets.
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是一個市場優勢到新興市場的轉變。
14:03
And over the last decade, you see that the share of Western exchanges --
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過去十年，你可以看到西方交易量 --
14:08
and this is the U.S. share of exchanges in the world --
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也就是美國佔全球的交易量 --
14:14
has gone down by nearly half in just the last decade.
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在十年內下滑將近一半。
14:17
Similarly, there's been explosive growth in India, for example,
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同樣的，在印度卻有了暴增，
14:21
where rural farmers are using exchanges -- growing here
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比如說，郊區的農民利用交易所，
14:25
over the last three years by 270 percent a year.
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這裡過去三年的成長是每年增加百分之270。
14:30
This is powered by low-cost VSAT technology,
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這是由低成本的小型衛星地面站(VAST)科技所驅動的，
14:33
aggressively trying to reach farmers to bring them into the market.
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他積極地聯繫農民，為了將他們帶進市場。
14:37
China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, three years ago,
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中國的大連商品交易所在三年前，
14:41
2004, overtook the Chicago Board of Trade to become
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2004年，取代了芝加哥交易所，
14:44
the second largest commodity exchange in the world.
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成了世界第二大的商品交易所。
14:48
Now, in Ethiopia, we're in the process of designing
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如今，在衣索比亞，我們正在計畫
14:52
the first organized Ethiopia Commodity Exchange.
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建立衣索比亞第一個商品交易所的過程中。
14:55
We're not trying to cut and paste the Chicago model
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我們並不是要模仿芝加哥或是印度的範例，
14:58
or the India model, but creating a system uniquely tailored
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而是根據衣索比亞小農民的需要
15:01
to Ethiopia's needs and realities,
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和實際情形，
15:03
Ethiopia's small farmers.
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來量身訂做一個特製的系統。
15:05
So, the ECX is an Ethiopian exchange for Ethiopia.
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因此，EXC就是衣索比亞特有的商品交易所。
15:08
We're creating a system that serves all market actors,
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我們正在創造一個適合所有市場參與者的系統。
15:12
that creates integrity, trust, efficiency, transparency
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它產生誠實、信任、效率、透明度，
15:18
and enables small farmers to manage the risks that I have described.
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且使得小農民可以應付我所說的那些風險。
15:22
In the design of our commodity exchange in Ethiopia,
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在所設計的衣索比亞商品交易所中，
15:25
we've done something rather unique, which is to
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我們做了一件與眾不同的事，
15:27
take the approach of an integrated perspective,
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就是採取綜合的觀點，
15:29
or what we call the ECX Edge.
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或是我們所稱的ECX優勢。
15:32
The ECX Edge pretty much creates the entire ecosystem
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ECX優勢大致上創造了整個生態體系，
15:36
in which the market will develop itself.
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使市場能在其中自我發展。
15:39
And this is because one of the things we've learned
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這是鑑於我們在過去十年
15:42
over the last decade of studying market development in Africa
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研究非洲市場發展所學到的一件事，
15:45
is that the piecemeal approach does not work.
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就是零散的接洽是沒有用的。
15:48
You've got one donor trying to develop market information,
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一位捐贈者試圖開發市場資訊，
15:51
another trying to work on or sponsor grades and standards,
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另一位試著從事製定贊助者等級和標準，
15:55
another ICT, and yet another on warehousing, or warehouse receipts.
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再有人想做資訊通信技術，然後另有人投資倉儲，或者是倉庫收據。
16:01
In our approach in Ethiopia,
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我們決定在衣索比亞採取的方法是
16:03
we've decided to put together the entire ecosystem,
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要把整個生態系統，
16:07
or environment, in which trade takes place.
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或是整個貿易環境結合在一起。
16:10
That means that the exchange will operate a trading system,
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這表示我們會使用一個貿易系統，
16:14
which will initially start as an open outcry,
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而這在一開始會引起公然反對的聲浪。
16:18
because we don't think the country's ready for full electronic trading.
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我們認為這個國家還沒有準備好要完全的電子貿易。
16:21
But at the same time, we'll do something which I think no exchange
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但同時，我們會做一件我認為全世界都沒有做過的貿易，
16:23
in the world has ever done, which is itself to operate something like
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就是在郊區
16:28
an Internet cafe in the rural areas.
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經營類似網路咖啡廳的場所。
16:30
So that farmers and small traders
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這樣一來，
16:33
can actually come to a terminal center -- what we call
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農夫和小商人能實際的來到終端中心，
16:36
the remote access terminal centers -- and actually,
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我們稱為遠端使用終端中心，
16:39
without having to buy a computer or figure out how to dial up
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不用買電腦，
16:41
or any of those things, simply see the trading
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也不用弄懂要怎麼撥接或類似的事，
16:44
that's happening on the Addis Ababa trading floor.
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就可以知道在阿地斯阿貝巴(衣索比亞首都)所發生的交易。
16:48
At the same time, what's very fundamental to this market is that --
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同時，對這市場來說相當重要，
16:51
and again, an innovation that we've designed for our exchange --
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也是我們設計這個交易所創新的點，
16:55
is that the exchange will operate warehouses around the country,
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就是這個交易所會經營全國各地的倉庫，
16:58
in which grade certification and warehouse receipting will be done.
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使等級認證和倉庫收據得著實行。
17:02
And in turn, we'll operate an in-house clearing system,
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相對的，我們會經營一個內部透明化的系統，
17:05
to assure that payment is done appropriately,
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好確保收、付款
17:09
in the right amount and at the right time,
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能按時按量的完成。
17:12
so that basically, we create trust and integrity in the system.
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所以基本上，我們在系統內創造了信任和誠實。
17:16
Obviously, we work with exchange actors,
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很明顯地，我們和交易行為者合作，
17:19
and as we're developing the exchange market itself,
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而且在我們也在發展交易市場的同時，
17:22
we're also developing the regulatory infrastructure and legal framework,
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我們也在發展監管的基礎設施和法律框架，
17:26
the overarching legal framework for making this market work.
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一個讓市場運作非常重要的法律框架。
17:29
So, in fact, our proclamation
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事實上，下個月我們會
17:32
is going to parliament next month.
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在國會上為這項計畫發表聲明。
17:35
What's really important is that the ECX will operate a market information system
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真正重要的是ECX會運用VSAT科技
17:40
to disseminate prices in real time to farmers around the country,
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及時的散佈市場資訊和電子報價給國內各地的農夫，
17:44
using VSAT technology to bring an electronic price dissemination
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這會完全的改變
17:49
directly to farmers.
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農夫和市場的關係。
17:51
What this does is transforms, fundamentally,
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以前農夫只有當地化的思維－
17:54
the farmers' relationship to the market.
300
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就是去最近的當地市場
17:57
Whereas before the farmer used to think local --
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平均八到十公里遠，
18:00
meaning that he or she would go to the nearest local market,
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有什麼就賣什麼，
18:03
eight to 10 kilometers away on average,
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完全不知道溢價
18:05
and sell whatever they happened to have,
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或其它類似的概念
18:07
without any idea of what the price premium or anything else was --
305
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是什麼。
18:11
now farmers come with knowledge of what prices are at the national market.
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如今他們對國際市場價格有所了解，
18:15
And they start to think national, and even global.
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且開始有國際化的思想。
18:18
They start to make not only commercial marketing decisions,
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他們不僅開始作商業市場的決定，
18:22
but also planting decisions, on the basis of information
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也開始根據期貨市場
18:25
coming from the futures price market.
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所提供的價格做決定。
18:29
And they come to the market knowing what grades their products
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當他們來到市場時會知道溢價的時候
18:33
will achieve in terms of a price premium.
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他們的產品會得到什麼等級。
18:36
So all of this will transform farmers.
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所以，這一去都會改變農夫，
18:38
It will also transform the way traders do business.
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也會改變商人做生意的方法。
18:41
It will stop them from doing simple, back-to-back, limited arbitrage
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這會阻止他們接二連三的做簡單且有限的套利，
18:47
to really thinking strategically about how to move grain
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反而真正思考如何將穀物不足的地方
18:50
across long distances from [surplus regions] to [deficit areas].
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長途運送到過剩的地區。
18:54
Can Ethiopia do this?
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衣索比亞可以做到這個嗎?
18:57
It seems very ambitious.
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這似乎是很耗時耗力，
18:59
But it will create new opportunities.
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但這會創造新機會。
19:01
We believe that this initiative requires great political will,
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我相信這新方案需要強大的政治決心，
19:04
and we'll have to align the financial sector, as well as the ICT sector,
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也需要將財政部門和資訊與通訊技術部門連結起來，
19:09
and really even the underlying legal framework.
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並且真實的平衡根本的法律框架。
19:13
We believe that the winds of change are here, and that we can do it.
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我們相信變革之風已經來到，而且我們做的到。
19:17
ECX is the market for Ethiopia's new millennium,
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ECX是衣索比亞市場的千禧年，
19:21
which starts in about eight months.
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且在八個月後啟動。
19:25
The last parliament of our century opened with our president
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這世紀最後一屆議會的開場白就是我們的總統
19:29
announcing to the country that this was the most important
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向全國宣布這是國家
19:32
economic initiative for the country today.
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最重要的新經濟方案。
19:34
We believe that the stakes are high,
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我們相信風險是很高的，
19:37
but that the returns will be even greater.
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但是回報會更高。
19:40
ECX, moreover, can become a trading platform for a pan-African market
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此外，ECX還能成為整個非洲市場
19:45
in agricultural commodities.
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農產品的交易平台。
19:47
Ethiopia's domestic market is about one billion dollars of value.
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衣索比亞的國內市場約值十億美元。
19:51
And we feel that over the next five years,
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我們覺得未來的五年，
19:55
if Ethiopia can capture even 40 percent, just 40 percent, of the domestic market,
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如果衣索比亞能掌握40%，就是40%的國內市場，
20:01
and add just 25 percent value to that market, the value of the market doubles.
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另外只加25%的市場價格，市場價值就會乘於二。
20:06
Ethiopia's agricultural market is 30 percent higher
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衣索比亞的農業市場穀物產量比南非高30%，
20:09
than South Africa's grain production,
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而且，事實上，
20:13
and, in fact, Ethiopia is the second largest maize producer in Africa.
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衣索比亞的玉米產量是非洲第二大。
20:16
So the potential is there.
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潛力就在這裡，
20:18
The will is there.
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意願就在這裡，
20:20
The commitment is there.
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承諾也在這裡。
20:22
So we feel that we have a winning value proposition
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我們覺得自己必定能改變農夫的選擇，
20:26
to transform farmers' choices, to grow our agriculture,
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使我們的農業成長，
20:30
and to change Africa.
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並且改變非洲。
20:32
So, we are in the business of finding our happiness.
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因此，我們的工作就是找尋我們的快樂。
20:36
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家。
20:37
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eleni Gabre-Madhin - EconomistEleni Gabre-Madhin is working to build Ethiopia's first commodities market. Re-establishing the profit motive for farmers, she believes, could help turn the world's largest recipient of food aid into a regional food basket.
Why you should listen
Economist Eleni Gabre-Madhin has ambitious vision -- to found the first commodities market in Ethiopia, bringing rates and standards (not to mention trading systems, warehousing and data centers) to the trade of crops.
Gabre-Madhin left her earlier job, as a World Bank senior economist in Washington, DC, in part because she was disturbed by the 2002 famine in Ethiopia -- after a bumper crop of maize the year before. With prices depressed, many farmers simply left their grain in the field in 2001. But when the rains failed in 2002, a famine of 1984 proportions threatened the country. Her dream: to build a market that protects the African farmer, who is too often living at the mercy of forces beyond his or her control.
The director of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Madhin studies market reforms, market institutions, and structural transformation in Africa, and works to create "a world free of hunger and malnutrition."
Eleni Gabre-Madhin | Speaker | TED.com