TED2005
James Surowiecki: The power and the danger of online crowds
James Surowiecki despre momentul de rascruce al retelelor de socializare
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James Surowiecki surprinde momentul in care retelele de socializare au devenit un jucator cu drepturi egale in lumea stirilor: tsunami-ul din 2005, cand clipurile YouTube, blogurile, mesajele instant si SMS-urile au purtat stirile -- si au surprins povesti individuale emotionante din aceasta tragedie.
James Surowiecki - Finance journalist
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker. Full bio
James Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:19
This was in an area called Wellawatta, a prime residential area in Colombo.
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Asta se intampla intr-o zona numita Wellawatta, o zona rezidentiala instarita din Colombo.
00:23
We stood on the railroad tracks
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Stateam pe sinele de cale ferata
00:25
that ran between my friend's house and the beach.
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care desparteau casa prietenului meu de plaja.
00:28
The tracks are elevated about eight feet from the waterline normally,
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In mod normal, sinele se ridica la aproximativ 2,5 m deasupra nivelului marii,
00:31
but at that point the water had receded
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dar la momentul acela apa scazuse
00:33
to a level three or four feet below normal.
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cu aproximativ un metru fata de nivelul obisnuit.
00:36
I'd never seen the reef here before.
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Nu mai vazusem niciodata reciful aici.
00:38
There were fish caught in rock pools left behind by the receding water.
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Erau pesti prinsi in ochiurile de apa formate in recif prin retragerea apelor.
00:43
Some children jumped down and ran to the rock pools with bags.
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Unii copii au sarit jos si au fugit inspre ochiurile de apa cu pungi in mana.
00:47
They were trying to catch fish.
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Incercau sa prinda peste.
00:49
No one realized that this was a very bad idea.
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Nimeni nu si-a dat seama ca asta era o idee foarte proasta.
00:52
The people on the tracks just continued to watch them.
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Oamenii de pe sine continuau doar sa ii priveasca.
00:55
I turned around to check on my friend's house.
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M-am intors sa vad ce se intampla cu casa prietenului meu.
00:58
Then someone on the tracks screamed.
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Apoi cineva de pe sine a tipat.
01:00
Before I could turn around, everyone on the tracks was screaming and running.
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Inainte de a apuca sa ma intorc, toti cei de pe calea ferata alergau si tipau.
01:04
The water had started coming back. It was foaming over the reef.
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Apa revenea. Facea spuma deasupra recifului.
01:08
The children managed to run back onto the tracks.
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Copiii au reusit sa fuga inapoi la sine.
01:12
No one was lost there. But the water continued to climb.
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Nimeni nu a fost pierdut acolo. Dar apele continuau sa creasca.
01:16
In about two minutes, it had reached the level of the railroad tracks
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Cam in 2 minute, ajunsese la nivelul sinelor de cale ferata
01:19
and was coming over it. We had run about 100 meters by this time.
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si se revarsa peste. Noi fugiseram intre timp cam 100 de metri.
01:23
It continued to rise.
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Continua sa creasca.
01:25
I saw an old man standing at his gate, knee-deep in water, refusing to move.
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Am vazut un batran stand in picioare la poarta, in apa pana la genunchi, refuzand sa se miste.
01:30
He said he'd lived his whole life there by the beach,
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Spunea ca si-a trait intreaga viata acolo langa plaja,
01:33
and that he would rather die there than run.
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si ca mai degreaba moare decat sa fuga.
01:36
A boy broke away from his mother to run back into his house
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Un baiat s-a desprins de mama sa pentru a fugi inapoi acasa
01:39
to get his dog, who was apparently afraid.
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sa-si ia cainele, care aparent se temea.
01:42
An old lady, crying, was carried out of her house and up the road by her son.
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O doamna in varsta, plangand, era purtata de fiul ei afara din casa, pe drum in sus.
01:47
The slum built on the railroad reservation
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Mahalaua construita pe acostamentul caii ferate
01:50
between the sea and the railroad tracks was completely swept away.
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intre mare si calea ferata a fost complet maturata.
01:54
Since this was a high-risk location, the police had warned the residents,
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Din cauza ca aceasta era o locatie cu risc ridicat, politia anuntase locatarii
01:57
and no one was there when the water rose.
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si nimeni nu mai era acolo cand apele au creascut.
01:59
But they had not had any time to evacuate any belongings.
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Insa nu avusesera timp sa-si ia nimic din lucruri.
02:03
For hours afterwards, the sea was strewn with bits of wood for miles around --
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Patru ore mai tarziu, kilometri in jur, marea era impanzita de bucati de lemn --
02:07
all of this was from the houses in the slum.
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toate astea proveneau din casele mahalalei.
02:10
When the waters subsided, it was as if it had never existed.
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Cand apele s-au retras, era ca si cum n-ar fi fost.
02:16
This may seem hard to believe --
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Poate ca pare greu de crezut,
02:18
unless you've been reading lots and lots of news reports --
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in afara cazului in care ati citit o multime de stiri
02:20
but in many places, after the tsunami, villagers were still terrified.
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dar in multe locuri, dupa tsunami, oamenii erau inca ingroziti.
02:24
When what was a tranquil sea swallows up people, homes
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Cand ceea ce a fost o mare linistita inghite fara mila oameni, case
02:27
and long-tail boats -- mercilessly, without warning --
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si barci pe nepregatite,
02:29
and no one can tell you anything reliable about whether another one is coming,
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si nimeni nu-ti poate spune cu siguranta daca un altul va urma,
02:33
I'm not sure you'd want to calm down either.
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nu sunt sigur ca, la randul tau, ai vrea sa te calmezi.
02:36
One of the scariest things about the tsunami
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Unul dintre cele mai terifiante lucruri legate de tsunami
02:38
that I've not seen mentioned is the complete lack of information.
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pe care nu l-am vazut mentionat, este completa lipsa de informatie.
02:42
This may seem minor, but it is terrifying to hear rumor after rumor
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Poate pare lipsit de importanta, dar este infiorator sa auzi zvon, peste zvon,
02:45
after rumor that another tidal wave, bigger than the last,
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peste zvon cum ca alt val mareic, mai mare decat precedentul,
02:48
will be coming at exactly 1 p.m., or perhaps tonight, or perhaps ...
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va sosi la exact ora 13:00, sau poate la noapte, sau poate...
02:53
You don't even know if it is safe to go back down to the water,
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nici nu stii macar daca e prudent sa te indrepti spre apa,
02:56
to catch a boat to the hospital.
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sa iei o barca spre spital.
02:58
We think that Phi Phi hospital was destroyed.
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Credem ca spitalul Phi Phi a fost distrus.
03:00
We think this boat is going to Phuket hospital,
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Credem ca aceasta barca merge la spitalul Phuket,
03:03
but if it's too dangerous to land at its pier,
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dar daca e prea periculos sa acostam la debarcaderul acestuia,
03:05
then perhaps it will go to Krabi instead, which is more protected.
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atrunci probabil o sa mergem la Krabi in loc, care e mai protejat.
03:09
We don't think another wave is coming right away.
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Nu credem ca un alt val va veni imediat.
03:12
At the Phi Phi Hill Resort,
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In statiunea Phi Phi Hill,
03:14
I was tucked into the corner furthest away from the television,
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eram inghesuit in coltul cel mai indepartat de televizor,
03:17
but I strained to listen for information.
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dar m-am straduit sa aud informatiile.
03:19
They reported that there was an 8.5 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra,
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Au anuntat ca fusese un cutremur cu magintudinea de 8,5 in Sumatra,
03:22
which triggered the massive tsunami.
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care a declansat un tsunami urias.
03:24
Having this news was comforting in some small way
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Aceasta stire ne consola intr-o foarte mica masura,
03:26
to understand what had just happened to us.
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ajutandu-ne sa intelegem ce tocmai ni se intamplase.
03:28
However, the report focused on what had already occurred
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Insa stirea se concentra pe ceea ce se intamplase deja
03:31
and offered no information on what to expect now.
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si nu oferea nicio informatie despre ce sa asteptam acum.
03:34
In general, everything was merely hearsay and rumor,
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In general, toate erau cel mult zvonuri si vorbe din auzite,
03:37
and not a single person I spoke to for over 36 hours
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si nici macar o persoana din cele cu care am discutat in mai mult 36 de ore
03:40
knew anything with any certainty.
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nu stia nimic cu certitudine.
03:43
Those were two accounts of the Asian tsunami from two Internet blogs
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Acestea au fost doua relatari ale tsunami-ului din Asia, de pe doua bloguri
03:49
that essentially sprang up after it occurred.
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care practic au aparut dupa ce acesta a avut loc.
03:52
I'm now going to show you two video segments from the tsunami
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Acum va voi arata doua secvente video din timpul tsunami-ului,
03:57
that also were shown on blogs.
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de asememea publicate pe bloguri.
03:59
I should warn you, they're pretty powerful.
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Trebuie sa va avertizez, sunt destul de emotionante.
04:01
One from Thailand, and the second one from Phuket as well.
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Unul din Thailanda, si un al doilea, de asemena, din Phuket.
04:05
(Screaming)
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(Tipete)
04:19
Voice 1: It's coming in. It's coming again.
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Vocea 1: Vine. Vine din nou.
04:22
Voice 2: It's coming again?
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Vocea 2: Vine din nou?
04:24
Voice 1: Yeah. It's coming again.
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Vocea 1: Da. Vine din nou.
04:26
Voice 2: Come get inside here.
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Vocea 2: [neclar]
04:30
Voice 1: It's coming again. Voice 2: New wave?
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Vocea1: Vine din nou. Un nou val.
04:35
Voice 1: It's coming again. New wave!
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Vine din nou.
04:40
[Unclear]
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[neclar]
04:44
(Screaming)
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(Tipete)
05:05
They called me out here.
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Am fost chemat aici.
05:21
James Surowiecki: Phew. Those were both on this site: waveofdestruction.org.
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James Surowiecki: Uff. Ambele se gaseau pe acest site: Waveofdestruction.org.
05:27
In the world of blogs, there's going to be before the tsunami and after the tsunami,
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In lumea blogurilor, o sa se vorbeasca despre 'inaintre de tsunami' si 'dupa tsunami',
05:31
because one of the things that happened in the wake of the tsunami was that,
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pentru ca unul dintre lucrurile care s-au intamplat la incepturile tsunami-ului a fost ca,
05:35
although initially -- that is, in that first day --
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desi initial -- adica in prima zi --
05:37
there was actually a kind of dearth of live reporting, there was a dearth of live video
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a existat de fapt o lipsa de reportaje la fata locului, a existat o lipsa de imagini live --
05:41
and some people complained about this.
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si unii oameni s-au plans in aceasta privinta.
05:43
They said, "The blogsters let us down."
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Ziceau ceva in genul: blogerii ne-au dezamagit.
05:46
What became very clear was that,
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Cert a fost ca,
05:48
within a few days, the outpouring of information was immense,
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in cateva zile, avalansa de informatii devenise imensa
05:53
and we got a complete and powerful picture of what had happened
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si ne-am putut forma o imagine completa si graitoare asupra a ceea ce se intamplase,
05:58
in a way that we never had been able to get before.
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la un nivel la care nu mai ajunsesem niciodata.
06:01
And what you had was a group of essentially unorganized, unconnected
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Si ceea ce aveam era in esenta un grup de scriitori, blogeri, etc,
06:04
writers, video bloggers, etc., who were able to come up with
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neoroganizati si neconectati, care erau capabili sa creeze
06:09
a collective portrait of a disaster that gave us a much better sense
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un portret colectiv a dezastrului, si care ne-a oferit o imagine mult mai clara
06:13
of what it was like to actually be there than the mainstream media could give us.
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a ce a insemnat sa te afli acolo decat a facut-o mass media.
06:18
And so in some ways the tsunami can be seen as a sort of seminal moment,
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Asadar, intr-un anume fel, tsunami-ul poate fi vazut ca un moment incipient,
06:22
a moment in which the blogosphere came, to a certain degree, of age.
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un moment in care blogosfera a ajuns la un anumit nivel de maturitate.
06:28
Now, I'm going to move now from this kind of --
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Acum o sa cam incerc sa ma departez de acest gen de --
06:30
the sublime in the traditional sense of the word,
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sublim la modul universal valabil --
06:32
that is to say, awe-inspiring, terrifying -- to the somewhat more mundane.
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adica grandios si terifiant -- inspre lucruri mai pamantesti.
06:37
Because when we think about blogs,
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Pentru ca atunci cand ne gandim la bloguri,
06:39
I think for most of us who are concerned about them,
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cred ca pentru majoritatea celor interesati de acestea,
06:42
we're primarily concerned with things like politics, technology, etc.
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ne intereseaza in primul rand lucruri precum politica, tehnologia etc.
06:47
And I want to ask three questions in this talk,
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Si as dori sa pun trei intrebari in aceasta prelegere,
06:49
in the 10 minutes that remain, about the blogosphere.
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in cele 10 minute care raman, referitoare la blogosfera.
06:53
The first one is, What does it tell us about our ideas,
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Prima ar fi: ce ne spune aceasta despre ideile noastre,
06:56
about what motivates people to do things?
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despre ceea ce-i motiveaza pe oameni sa faca lucruri?
06:58
The second is, Do blogs genuinely have the possibility
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A doua este: ne dau oare blogurile acces, in mod nemijlocit,
07:02
of accessing a kind of collective intelligence
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la un soi de inteligenta colectiva
07:06
that has previously remained, for the most part, untapped?
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care pana acum a ramas, in cea mai mare parte, inaccesibila?
07:09
And then the third part is, What are the potential problems,
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Si cea de-a treia parte este: care sunt potentialele probleme,
07:13
or the dark side of blogs as we know them?
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sau genul de aspecte negative ale blogurilor, asa cum le stim?
07:17
OK, the first question:
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Ok, prima intrebare:
07:19
What do they tell us about why people do things?
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Ce ne spun acestea referitor la de ce fac oamenii anumite lucruri?
07:21
One of the fascinating things about the blogosphere specifically,
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Unul dintre lucrurile fascinante legate de blogosfera in particular,
07:24
and, of course, the Internet more generally --
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si, bineinteles, internet la modul general --
07:27
and it's going to seem like a very obvious point,
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si asta o sa para extrem de evident,
07:29
but I think it is an important one to think about --
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dar cred ca este un aspect care merita considerat --
07:31
is that the people who are generating these enormous reams of content
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este acela ca oamenii care creeaza enorme cantitati de continut
07:35
every day, who are spending enormous amounts of time organizing,
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in fiecare zi, care petrec enorm de mult timp organizand,
07:40
linking, commenting on the substance of the Internet,
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creand legaturi si comentand asupra esentei internetului,
07:43
are doing so primarily for free.
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fac asta in primul rand pe gratis.
07:46
They are not getting paid for it in any way other than in the attention and,
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Nu primesc alta plata pentru asta decat atentia si,
07:50
to some extent, the reputational capital that they gain from doing a good job.
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intr-o anume masura, prestigiul pe care il dobandesc facand o treaba buna.
07:55
And this is -- at least, to a traditional economist -- somewhat remarkable,
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Si asta este, cel putin pentru un economist de scoala veche, oarecum ramarcabil,
08:00
because the traditional account of economic man would say that,
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pentru ca in aceasta acceptiune traditionalist-economista omul ar spune ca,
08:04
basically, you do things for a concrete reward, primarily financial.
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stiti, practic, faci lucruri pentru a fi rasplatit, in primul rand financiar.
08:09
But instead, what we're finding on the Internet --
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Dar in schimb, ceea ce gasim pe internet --
08:12
and one of the great geniuses of it -- is that people have found a way
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si unul dintre lucrurile absolut geniale legate de acesta -- este ca oamenii au gasit o modalitate
08:16
to work together without any money involved at all.
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de a lucra impreuna fara a implica deloc banii.
08:19
They have come up with, in a sense, a different method for organizing activity.
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Au gasit, intr-un fel, un soi de metoda diferita de a-si organiza activitatea.
08:24
The Yale Law professor Yochai Benkler, in an essay called "Coase's Penguin,"
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Yochai Benkler, profesor de drept la Yale, intr-un eseu numit “Pinguinul lui Coase”,
08:29
talks about this open-source model, which we're familiar with from Linux,
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vorbeste despre acest soi de model “cu sursa deschisa”, cu care ne-am familiarizat de la Linux,
08:33
as being potentially applicable in a whole host of situations.
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ca fiind potential aplicabil intr-o multime de situatii.
08:36
And, you know, if you think about this with the tsunami,
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Si, stiti, daca e sa gandim asa cu privire la tsunami,
08:38
what you have is essentially a kind of an army of local journalists,
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atunci ce rezulta este practic o armata locala de jurnalisti,
08:42
who are producing enormous amounts of material
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care practic produc enorme cantitati de informatie,
08:45
for no reason other than to tell their stories.
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fara alt motiv decat acela de a-si spune povestea.
08:47
That's a very powerful idea, and it's a very powerful reality.
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Aceasta e o idee foarte puternica, si este o realitate foarte puternica.
08:51
And it's one that offers really interesting possibilities
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Si este una care ofera posibilitati de-a dreptul interesante
08:53
for organizing a whole host of activities down the road.
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de a organiza o multime de activitati pe viitor.
08:59
So, I think the first thing that the blogosphere tells us
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Prin urmare, cred ca primul lucru pe care incearca blogosfera sa ni-l spuna
09:02
is that we need to expand our idea of what counts as rational,
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e ca trebuie sa ne largim ideea a ce se califica drept "rational",
09:05
and we need to expand our simple equation of value equals money,
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si trebuie sa largim simpla ecuatie in care valoarea inseamna bani,
09:09
or, you have to pay for it to be good,
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ori ca trebuie sa platesti pentru ceva de calitate,
09:11
but that in fact you can end up with collectively really brilliant products
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insa in realitate poti obtine rezultate extraordinare create de un colectiv,
09:14
without any money at all changing hands.
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fara ca banii sa treaca dintr-o mana in alta.
09:17
There are a few bloggers -- somewhere maybe around 20, now --
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Exista cativa blogeri -- la momentul de fata probabil in jur de 20 --
09:20
who do, in fact, make some kind of money, and a few
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care, practic, fac ceva bani, si alti cativa
09:23
who are actually trying to make a full-time living out of it,
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care efectiv incearca sa traiasca din asta,
09:26
but the vast majority of them are doing it because they love it
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dar marea lor majoritate fac asta pentru ca le place
09:28
or they love the attention, or whatever it is.
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ori le place atentia pe care o primesc, ori cine stie.
09:30
So, Howard Rheingold has written a lot about this
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Dupa cum stiti, Howard Rheingold a scris o gramada despre asta,
09:32
and, I think, is writing about this more,
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si cred ca scrie si mai mult,
09:34
but this notion of voluntary cooperation
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insa notiunea de colaborare voluntara
09:37
is an incredibly powerful one, and one worth thinking about.
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este una incredibil de puternica, si una care merita considerata.
09:40
The second question is, What does the blogosphere actually do for us,
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A doua intrebare este ce face efectiv blogosfera pentru noi,
09:45
in terms of accessing collective intelligence?
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din perspectiva accesului la inteligenta colectiva?
09:48
You know, as Chris mentioned, I wrote a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds."
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Stiti, a mentionat si Chris, am scris o carte numita “The Wisdom of Crowds” ("Intelepciunea multimilor").
09:51
And the premise of "The Wisdom of Crowds" is that,
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Si premisa acestei carti este ca,
09:54
under the right conditions, groups can be remarkably intelligent.
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in conditii adecvate, grupurile pot fi extraordinar de inteligente.
09:58
And they can actually often be smarter
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Si deseori acestea pot fi chiar mai inteligente
10:00
than even the smartest person within them.
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decat cea mai inteligenta persoana din grup.
10:02
The simplest example of this is if you ask a group of people
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Cel mai simplu exemplu ar fi acela in care rogi un grup de oameni
10:05
to do something like guess how many jellybeans are in a jar.
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sa faca ceva precum “ghiciti cate bomboane de jeleu sunt intr-un borcan”.
10:09
If I had a jar of jellybeans
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Stiti, daca as avea un borcan cu bomboane de jeleu,
10:11
and I asked you all to guess how many jellybeans were in that jar,
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si eu v-as ruga sa ghiciti care e numarul bomboanelor din borcan,
10:14
your average guess would be remarkably good.
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media raspunsurilor voastre ar fi remarcabil de buna.
10:17
It would be somewhere probably within three and five percent
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Ar fi probabil undeva la o marja de eroare de 3-5%
10:19
of the number of beans in the jar,
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din numarul de bomboane din borcan
10:21
and it would be better than 90 to 95 percent of you.
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si mai exacta decat aproximarile a 90-95% dintre voi.
10:26
There may be one or two of you who are brilliant jelly bean guessers,
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S-ar putea gasi unul sau doi dintre voi care ca fie ghicitori geniali de jeleuri,
10:29
but for the most part the group's guess
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dar in cele mai multe cazuri aproximarea grupului
10:32
would be better than just about all of you.
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va fi mai buna decat aproape a oricaruia dintre voi.
10:34
And what's fascinating is that you can see this phenomenon at work
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Si ceea ce e cu adevarat fascinant e ca putem observa acest fenomen in functiune
10:37
in many more complicated situations.
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in numeroase situatii mult mai complicate.
10:40
For instance, if you look at the odds on horses at a racetrack,
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Asa, spre exemplu, daca ne uitam la sansele cailor de curse,
10:43
they predict almost perfectly how likely a horse is to win.
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acestea estimeaza aproape perfect care sunt sansele unui cal de a castiga.
10:48
In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack
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Intr-un fel, grupul de pariori la hipodrom
10:51
is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.
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prevede viitorul, in termeni probabilistici.
10:55
You know, if you think about something like Google,
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Stiti, daca va ganditi la un lucru precum Google,
10:57
which essentially is relying on the collective intelligence of the Web
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care practic se bazeaza pe inteligenta colectiva a Internetului
11:01
to seek out those sites that have the most valuable information --
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pentru a identifica acele site-uri care contin informatia cea mai relevanta.
11:05
we know that Google does an exceptionally good job of doing that,
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Stim ca Google face o treaba excelenta in acest sens,
11:08
and it does that because, collectively, this disorganized thing
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si face asta pentru ca, la nivel colectiv, aceasta chestie dezorganizata
11:11
we call the "World Wide Web" actually has a remarkable order,
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numita World Wide Web poseda de fapt o organizare
11:15
or a remarkable intelligence in it.
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si o inteligenta remarcabile.
11:18
And this, I think, is one of the real promises of the blogosphere.
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Si asta, cred, este una dintre realele potentiale ale blogosferei.
11:21
Dan Gillmor -- whose book "We the Media"
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Dan Gilmor, a carui carte “We the Media” ["Noi, Media"] --
11:23
is included in the gift pack --
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si care este inclusa in pachetul-cadou --
11:25
has talked about it as saying that, as a writer,
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a vorbit despre aceasta spunand ca, in calitatea de scriitor,
11:28
he's recognized that his readers know more than he does.
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a recunoscut ca cititorii lui stiu mai multe decat el.
11:32
And this is a very challenging idea. It's a very challenging idea
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Si asta este o idee foarte provocatore. Este o idee foarte provocatoare
11:35
to mainstream media. It's a very challenging idea to anyone
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pentru mass-media traditionala. Este o idee provocatoare pentru oricine
11:37
who has invested an enormous amount of time and expertise,
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a investit enorm de mult timp si expertiza
11:41
and who has a lot of energy invested in the notion
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si care a investit multa energie in ideea
11:44
that he or she knows better than everyone else.
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ca el sau ea stie mai bine ca oricine altcineva.
11:49
But what the blogosphere offers is the possibility
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Insa ceea ce blogosfera ne ofera este posibilitatea
11:52
of getting at the kind of collective, distributive intelligence that is out there,
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accesului la un soi de inteligenta colectiva, distributiva, care e acolo,
11:57
and that we know is available to us
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la dispozitia noastra
11:59
if we can just figure out a way of accessing it.
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cu conditia sa descoperim metoda de a o accesa.
12:03
Each blog post, each blog commentary
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Fiecare articol, fiecare comentariu pus pe un blog,
12:06
may not, in and of itself, be exactly what we're looking for,
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poate sa nu reprezinte in sine sau de unul singur ceea ce cautam,
12:10
but collectively the judgment of those people posting, those people linking,
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dar suma judecatilor tuturor acelor oameni care posteaza, care creeaza legaturi,
12:15
more often than not is going to give you a very interesting
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o sa ne ofere de cele mai multe ori, o imagine interesanta
12:19
and enormously valuable picture of what's going on.
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si extrem de valoroasa a ceea ce se intampla.
12:22
So, that's the positive side of it.
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Prin urmare, asta este latura sa pozitiva.
12:24
That's the positive side of what is sometimes called
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Aceasta este latura pozitiva a ceea ce se numeste uneori
12:26
participatory journalism or citizen journalism, etc. --
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"jurnalism participativ", sau "jurnalism cetatenesc" etc.,
12:31
that, in fact, we are giving people
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si anume ca, de fapt, le oferim intr-un fel oamenilor
12:34
who have never been able to talk before a voice,
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care nu au avut niciodata posiblitatea de a vorbi un soi de voce,
12:37
and we're able to access information that has always been there
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si ca suntem capabili sa accesam informatie care a existat intotdeauana acolo,
12:40
but has essentially gone untapped.
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dar a ramas in esenta neutilizata.
12:43
But there is a dark side to this,
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Dar exista si o latura intunecata a acestei probleme,
12:45
and that's what I want to spend the last part of my talk on.
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si cu asta o sa ma ocup in ultima parte a prelegerii mele.
12:48
One of the things that happens if you spend a lot of time on the Internet,
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Unul dintre lucrurile care se intampla cand petreci prea mult timp pe internet
12:51
and you spend a lot of time thinking about the Internet,
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si petreci prea mult timp gandindu-te la internet
12:53
is that it is very easy to fall in love with the Internet.
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este acela ca e foarte usor sa te indragostesti de internet.
12:57
It is very easy to fall in love with the decentralized,
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Este foarte usor sa te indragostesti de structura descentralizata,
13:00
bottom-up structure of the Internet.
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integratoare a internetului.
13:02
It is very easy to think that networks are necessarily good things --
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Este foarte usor sa crezi ca retelele sunt neaparat lucruri bune,
13:07
that being linked from one place to another,
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ca a fi trimis dintr-un loc in altul,
13:09
that being tightly linked in a group, is a very good thing.
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a fi strans conectat de un grup, este un lucru foarte bun.
13:13
And much of the time it is.
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In cea mai mare parte a timpului si este.
13:15
But there's also a downside to this -- a kind of dark side, in fact --
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Dar exista si reversul medaliei -- un soi de parte intunecata, de fapt --
13:19
and that is that the more tightly linked we've become to each other,
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si aceea este ca, cu cat devenim mai strans legati unii de altii,
13:23
the harder it is for each of us to remain independent.
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cu atat ne este mai greu sa ramanem independenti.
13:27
One of the fundamental characteristics of a network is that,
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Una dintre caracteristicile fundamentale ale unei retele este aceea ca,
13:30
once you are linked in the network,
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odata ce te-ai conectat la retea,
13:32
the network starts to shape your views
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reteaua incepe sa-ti modeleze opiniile
13:35
and starts to shape your interactions with everybody else.
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si incepe sa-ti modeleze interactiunile cu toti ceilalti.
13:38
That's one of the things that defines what a network is.
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Acest lucru face parte din definitia unei retele.
13:40
A network is not just the product of its component parts.
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O retea nu este doar ansamblul componentelor sale.
13:44
It is something more than that.
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Este ceva mai mult decat atat.
13:47
It is, as Steven Johnson has talked about, an emergent phenomenon.
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Este, dupa cum afirma Steven Johnson, un fenomen cu totul nou.
13:51
Now, this has all these benefits:
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Acum, aceasta are toate aceste avantaje:
13:53
it's very beneficial in terms of the efficiency of communicating information;
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este foarte benefica in termeni de transmitere eficienta a informatiei;
13:56
it gives you access to a whole host of people;
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iti ofera acces la o multime de oameni;
13:59
it allows people to coordinate their activities in very good ways.
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le permite oamenilor sa-si coordoneze foarte bine actiunile.
14:02
But the problem is that groups are only smart
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Dar problema este ca grupurile sunt foarte destepte
14:06
when the people in them are as independent as possible.
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doar atunci cand membri lor sunt cat mai independenti posibil.
14:10
This is the paradox of the wisdom of crowds,
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Acesta ar fi, cum s-ar spune, paradoxul inteligentei multimilor,
14:13
or the paradox of collective intelligence,
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sau paradoxul inteligentei colective,
14:15
that what it requires is actually a form of independent thinking.
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acela ca ea necesita de fapt o forma de gandire independenta.
14:20
And networks make it harder for people to do that,
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Si retelele fac ca lucrul acesta sa fie dificil pentru oameni,
14:24
because they drive attention to the things that the network values.
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pentru ca atrag atentia asupra acelor lucruri pe care pune pret reteaua.
14:28
So, one of the phenomena that's very clear in the blogosphere
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Prin urmare, unul dintre fenomenele care sunt foarte clare in blogosfera este ca
14:32
is that once a meme, once an idea gets going,
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odata ce o mema, odata ce o idee, se porneste,
14:36
it is very easy for people to just sort of pile on,
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este foarte usor ca oamenii sa construiasca in jurul ei,
14:39
because other people have, say, a link.
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pentru ca alti oameni au, sa zicem, o legatura.
14:42
People have linked to it, and so other people in turn link to it, etc., etc.
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Oamenii au aderat la ea si prin urmare alti oameni adera la ea, etc., etc.
14:45
And that phenomenon
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Si acel fenomen, fenomenul
14:48
of piling on the existing links
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de a cladi pe seama legaturilor existente
14:51
is one that is characteristic of the blogosphere,
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reprezinta una dintre caracteristicile blogosferei,
14:54
particularly of the political blogosphere,
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in special a blogosferei axata pe politic,
14:57
and it is one that essentially throws off
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si este una care practic dinamiteaza
15:00
this beautiful, decentralized, bottom-up intelligence
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acest soi de inteligenta descentralizata, non-ierarhica
15:03
that blogs can manifest in the right conditions.
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pe care blogurile o manifesta in conditii favorabile.
15:06
The metaphor that I like to use is the metaphor of the circular mill.
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Metafora pe care imi place sa o folosesc este metafora mersului in cerc al furnicilor.
15:10
A lot of people talk about ants.
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Multi oameni vorbesc despre furnici.
15:12
You know, this is a conference inspired by nature.
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Stiti, aceasta este o prelegere inspirata din natura.
15:14
When we talk about bottom-up, decentralized phenomena,
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Cand vorbim de structura descentralizata, non-ierarhica a internetului,
15:17
the ant colony is the classic metaphor, because,
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colonia de furnici este o metafora clasica, pentru ca, dupa cum stiti,
15:21
no individual ant knows what it's doing,
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nicio furnica nu stie ce face,
15:23
but collectively ants are able to reach incredibly intelligent decisions.
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dar impreuna furnicile sunt capabile sa ia decizii incredibil de inteligente.
15:29
They're able to guide their traffic with remarkable speed.
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Sunt capabile sa ghideze traficul cu viteze uimitoare.
15:36
So, the ant colony is a great model:
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Prin urmare, musuroiul de furnici este un model excelent --
15:38
you have all these little parts that collectively add up to a great thing.
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avem toate aceste particele care adunate la un loc formeaza un lucru minunat.
15:41
But we know that occasionally ants go astray,
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Dar stiam ca uneori furnicile se ratacesc,
15:45
and what happens is that, if army ants are wandering around and they get lost,
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si ce se intampla e ca, daca furnicile-soldat umbla aiurea si se pierd,
15:49
they start to follow a simple rule --
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incep sa urmeze o regula simpla --
15:51
just do what the ant in front of you does.
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fa doar ce face si furnica din fata ta.
15:55
And what happens is that the ants eventually end up in a circle.
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Si ce se intampla e ca furnicile sfarsesc prin a forma un cerc.
15:59
And there's this famous example of one that was 1,200 feet long
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Si exista un exemplu celebru in care cercul avea 400 de metri lungime
16:03
and lasted for two days, and the ants just kept marching around and around
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si a durat doua zile, si furnicile au continuat sa marsaluiasca de jur-imprejur
16:07
in a circle until they died.
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in cerc pana au murit.
16:10
And that, I think, is a sort of thing to watch out for.
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Si acesta, cred, este genul de pericol de care sa ne ferim.
16:13
That's the thing we have to fear --
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Acesta e lucrul de care trebuie sa ne temem,
16:15
is that we're just going to keep marching around and around until we die.
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acela ca o sa continuam sa ne invartim intruna in cerc pana murim.
16:19
Now, I want to connect this back, though, to the tsunami,
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Acum, as dori sa ne intoarcem insa la tsunami,
16:22
because one of the great things about the tsunami --
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pentru ca unul dintre aspectele fascinante legate de tsunami --
16:24
in terms of the blogosphere's coverage,
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in ceea ce priveste acoperirea blogosferei,
16:26
not in terms of the tsunami itself --
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si nu tsunami-ul in sine --
16:28
is that it really did represent a genuine bottom-up phenomenon.
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este acela ca a reprezentat intr-adevar un fenomen autentic si fara precedent.
16:32
You saw sites that had never existed before getting huge amounts of traffic.
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Ati vazut site-uri care nu existasera pana atunci generand un trafic incredibil.
16:35
You saw people being able to offer up
their independent points of view
their independent points of view
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Ati vazut oameni devenind capabili sa exprime puncte de vedere independente
16:39
in a way that they hadn't before.
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asa cum nu mai facusera niciodata.
16:41
There, you really did see the intelligence of the Web manifest itself.
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Si in acesta caz chiar ati vazut inteligenta retelei in actiune.
16:46
So, that's the upside. The circular mill is the downside.
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Deci asta ar fi avantajul. Cercul furnicilor este dezavantajul.
16:49
And I think that the former is what we really need to strive for.
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Si cred ca cel dintai este cel spre care trebuie sa tindem.
16:52
Thank you very much. (Applause)
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Multumesc foarte mult!
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
James Surowiecki - Finance journalistJames Surowiecki argues that people, when we act en masse, are smarter than we think. He's the author of The Wisdom of Crowds and writes about finance for the New Yorker.
Why you should listen
James Surowiecki has been reporting on finance and human behavior since the days of the Motley Fool on AOL. He's had a ringside seat for some roller-coaster times in business, but always, his focus has been on regular people -- not titans of Wall Street, but you and me. In 2004, he published The Wisdom of Crowds, an exploration of the hive mind as it plays out in business and in other arenas of life.
Surowiecki is the finance writer for the New Yorker, and writes a lively and funny (and lately, indispensable) blog for newyorker.com, The Balance Sheet. His other books include the wonderfully titled but sadly quite relevant Best Business Crime Writing of 2003.
James Surowiecki | Speaker | TED.com