TEDGlobal 2005
Aubrey de Grey: A roadmap to end aging
Aubrey de Grey thot se mund ta evitojm plakjen
Filmed:
Readability: 4
4,332,848 views
Studiuesi nga Cambridge, Aubrey de Grey, argumenton se plakja eshte thjesht nje semundje, dhe eshte e kurueshme. Njerezit plaken ne shtate menyra, thote ai, dhe te gjitha mund te evitohen.
Aubrey de Grey - Crusader against aging
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born. Full bio
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit,
0
0
2000
18 minuta eshte nje kohe plotesisht e pamjaftueshme
00:27
so I'm going to dive straight in, right at the point
1
2000
2000
keshtu qe do te jem i drejt per drejt
00:29
where I get this thing to work.
2
4000
2000
si funksionon kjo gje.
00:31
Here we go. I'm going to talk about five different things.
3
6000
2000
Une do te flas per 5 gjera te ndryshme
00:33
I'm going to talk about why defeating aging is desirable.
4
8000
3000
Une do te flas perse te mposhtesh plakjen eshte e deshirueshme.
00:36
I'm going to talk about why we have to get our shit together,
5
11000
2000
Une do te flas perse duhet te jemi te organizuar,
00:38
and actually talk about this a bit more than we do.
6
13000
2000
dhe ne fakt do te flas rreth kesaj me shume.
00:40
I'm going to talk about feasibility as well, of course.
7
15000
2000
Une do te flas per realizushmerine, natyrisht.
00:42
I'm going to talk about why we are so fatalistic
8
17000
2000
Une do te flas perse jemi pesimist
00:44
about doing anything about aging.
9
19000
2000
rreth gjithckaje qe ka te bej me plakjen.
00:46
And then I'm going spend perhaps the second half of the talk
10
21000
2000
dhe ndoshta pastaj pjesen e dyte te fjalimit do ta shpenzoj
00:48
talking about, you know, how we might actually be able to prove that fatalism is wrong,
11
23000
5000
se si mund ta vertetojm se pesimismi eshte gabim,
00:53
namely, by actually doing something about it.
12
28000
2000
duke bere dicka rreth saj.
00:55
I'm going to do that in two steps.
13
30000
2000
Une do ta bej kete ne dy hapa.
00:57
The first one I'm going to talk about is
14
32000
2000
Gjeja e pare per te cilen do flas eshte
00:59
how to get from a relatively modest amount of life extension --
15
34000
3000
si mund te arrijm te zgjasim jetes me modesti
01:02
which I'm going to define as 30 years, applied to people
16
37000
3000
te cilen do ta percaktoja 30 vjec,
01:05
who are already in middle-age when you start --
17
40000
2000
te cilet jane ne moshe te mesme kur
01:07
to a point which can genuinely be called defeating aging.
18
42000
3000
arrin nje pike ku i dorezoheni plakjes.
01:10
Namely, essentially an elimination of the relationship between
19
45000
4000
Esencialisht nje eleminim i lidhjes midis
01:14
how old you are and how likely you are to die in the next year --
20
49000
2000
sa vjec je, dhe sa eshte mundesi te vdesesh vitin tjeter
01:16
or indeed, to get sick in the first place.
21
51000
2000
ose te semuresh.
01:18
And of course, the last thing I'm going to talk about
22
53000
2000
Dhe natyrisht, gjeja e fundit per te cilen do te flas
01:20
is how to reach that intermediate step,
23
55000
2000
eshte se si mund te arrijm fazen e ndermjetme.
01:22
that point of maybe 30 years life extension.
24
57000
3000
pika ku te rrisim kohezgjatjen me 30 vjet.
01:25
So I'm going to start with why we should.
25
60000
3000
Atehere, do te filloj me pyetjen perse duhet.
01:28
Now, I want to ask a question.
26
63000
2000
Tani dua te bej nje pyetje.
01:30
Hands up: anyone in the audience who is in favor of malaria?
27
65000
3000
Ngrini duart; te gjithe ata qe jane pro malarias?
01:33
That was easy. OK.
28
68000
1000
Kjo ishte e thjesht. OK.
01:34
OK. Hands up: anyone in the audience
29
69000
2000
OK. Ngini duarte, ata ne audience
01:36
who's not sure whether malaria is a good thing or a bad thing?
30
71000
3000
te cilet nuk jane te sigurt nese malaria eshte dicka e mire apo e keqe?
01:39
OK. So we all think malaria is a bad thing.
31
74000
2000
OK. Keshtu qe te gjithe mendojm se malaria eshte dicka e keqe.
01:41
That's very good news, because I thought that was what the answer would be.
32
76000
2000
Ky eshte lajm i mire, pasi kjo eshte pergjigja qe kisha menduar.
01:43
Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you
33
78000
2000
Gjeja qe une dua qe ju te kuptoni eshte se
01:45
that the main reason why we think that malaria is a bad thing
34
80000
3000
arsye kryesore perse ne mendojm se malaria eshte gje e keqe
01:48
is because of a characteristic of malaria that it shares with aging.
35
83000
4000
eshte per shkak te karakteristikes qe malaria ka me plakjen.
01:52
And here is that characteristic.
36
87000
3000
Dhe ja ku eshte kjo karakteristike.
01:55
The only real difference is that aging kills considerably more people than malaria does.
37
90000
5000
Diferenca e vetme eshte se plakja vret konsiderueshem me shum njerez se malaria.
02:00
Now, I like in an audience, in Britain especially,
38
95000
2000
Tani, dua qe ne audience, sidomos ne Britani,
02:02
to talk about the comparison with foxhunting,
39
97000
2000
te krahasojm gjahun e dhelprave,
02:04
which is something that was banned after a long struggle,
40
99000
3000
e cila eshte dicka qe u ndalua pas shum veshtiresive,
02:07
by the government not very many months ago.
41
102000
3000
nga qeveria jo shume muaj me pare.
02:10
I mean, I know I'm with a sympathetic audience here,
42
105000
2000
E di se kam nje audience dashamirese ketu,
02:12
but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely persuaded by this logic.
43
107000
3000
por, sic e dime, shume njerez nuk jam shume te bindur nga kjo logjike.
02:15
And this is actually a rather good comparison, it seems to me.
44
110000
3000
Dhe faktikisht kjo eshte nje krahasim shum i mire, sipas meje.
02:18
You know, a lot of people said, "Well, you know,
45
113000
2000
E dini se shum njerez thane,
02:20
city boys have no business telling us rural types what to do with our time.
46
115000
5000
"Ata te qytetit nuk kane pune te na tregojn ne fshatareve se cfare te bejm me kohen tone.
02:25
It's a traditional part of the way of life,
47
120000
2000
Eshte zakon dhe pjese e jetes tone,
02:27
and we should be allowed to carry on doing it.
48
122000
2000
dhe ne duhet te jemi te lire te vazhdojm ta bejm kete.
02:29
It's ecologically sound; it stops the population explosion of foxes."
49
124000
3000
Ekologjikisht nenkupton se ndalon nje shperthim te popullates se dhelprave."
02:32
But ultimately, the government prevailed in the end,
50
127000
2000
Por, perfundimisht qeveria mbizoteroi ne fund,
02:34
because the majority of the British public,
51
129000
1000
sepse shumica e publikut Britanik,
02:35
and certainly the majority of members of Parliament,
52
130000
2000
dhe sidomos shumica e antareve te perlamentit,
02:37
came to the conclusion that it was really something
53
132000
2000
arriten ne perfundimin se ishte vertet dicka
02:39
that should not be tolerated in a civilized society.
54
134000
2000
qe nuk hej toleruar ne nje shoqeri te civilizuar.
02:41
And I think that human aging shares
55
136000
1000
Une mendoj se plakja e njerezimit ndan
02:42
all of these characteristics in spades.
56
137000
2000
te gjitha keto karakteristika me shpate.
02:45
What part of this do people not understand?
57
140000
2000
Cilen pjese nuk kuptojne njerezit?
02:47
It's not just about life, of course --
58
142000
2000
Singurisht nuk ka te bej vec me jeten
02:49
(Laughter) --
59
144000
1000
(buzeqeshje)
02:50
it's about healthy life, you know --
60
145000
3000
ka te bej me jeten e shendetshme
02:53
getting frail and miserable and dependent is no fun,
61
148000
3000
te jesh i brisht, i mjere, dhe i varur nuk eshte qejf,
02:56
whether or not dying may be fun.
62
151000
2000
as vdekja nuk eshte qejf.
02:58
So really, this is how I would like to describe it.
63
153000
2000
At'here, keshtu kam qejf ta pershkruaj.
03:00
It's a global trance.
64
155000
2000
Eshte nje ekstaze globale.
03:02
These are the sorts of unbelievable excuses
65
157000
2000
Keto jane burimet e justifikimeve te papranueshme.
03:04
that people give for aging.
66
159000
2000
qe njerezit thone rreth plakjes.
03:06
And, I mean, OK, I'm not actually saying
67
161000
2000
Ok, nuk eshte se dua te them qe
03:08
that these excuses are completely valueless.
68
163000
2000
keto justifikime jane komplete te pa vlera.
03:10
There are some good points to be made here,
69
165000
2000
Ka disa pika te rendesishme qe duhet kushtuar vemendje.
03:12
things that we ought to be thinking about, forward planning
70
167000
3000
Gjera te cilat duhet ti mendojm per planet e ardhshme
03:15
so that nothing goes too -- well, so that we minimize
71
170000
2000
ne menyre qe gjerat mos te shkojne shume mire, qe te minimizojm
03:17
the turbulence when we actually figure out how to fix aging.
72
172000
3000
turbulencat kur ta gjejme sesi mund ta rregullojme plakjen.
03:20
But these are completely crazy, when you actually
73
175000
3000
Por keto jane cmendurira, kur faktikisht
03:23
remember your sense of proportion.
74
178000
2000
kujtojm sensin e proporcionit.
03:25
You know, these are arguments; these are things that
75
180000
4000
Keto jane argumente, gjera te cilat
03:29
would be legitimate to be concerned about.
76
184000
2000
do te ishte legjitime qe te shqetesoheshim.
03:31
But the question is, are they so dangerous --
77
186000
3000
Por pyetja eshte, a jane keto kaq te rrezikshme
03:34
these risks of doing something about aging --
78
189000
2000
keto rreziqe per te bere dicka rreth plakjes
03:36
that they outweigh the downside of doing the opposite,
79
191000
4000
te cilat peshojn me shume sesa duhet te kunderten,
03:40
namely, leaving aging as it is?
80
195000
2000
duke e lene plakjen te afrohet?
03:42
Are these so bad that they outweigh
81
197000
2000
a jane keto aq te keqija sa qe
03:44
condemning 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily early death?
82
199000
6000
denojn 100,000 njerez ne dite me nje vdekje te parakohshme e te panevojshme.
03:50
You know, if you haven't got an argument that's that strong,
83
205000
2000
Nese nuk ke ndonje argument aq te fort,
03:52
then just don't waste my time, is what I say.
84
207000
3000
atehere mos ma harxho kohen kot, kete kam per te thene.
03:55
(Laughter)
85
210000
1000
(buzeqeshje)
03:56
Now, there is one argument
86
211000
1000
Tani, eshte nje argument
03:57
that some people do think really is that strong, and here it is.
87
212000
2000
qe disa njerez vertete mendojn se eshte shum i fort, ia ku eshte.
03:59
People worry about overpopulation; they say,
88
214000
2000
Njerezit shqetesohen per mbipopullimin; thone ata,
04:01
"Well, if we fix aging, no one's going to die to speak of,
89
216000
2000
"Epo mire, nese e ndreqim plakjen, asnje nuk do vdes per te folur,
04:03
or at least the death toll is going to be much lower,
90
218000
3000
ose te pakten taksa e vdekjes do jet shum me e ulet,
04:06
only from crossing St. Giles carelessly.
91
221000
2000
vetem duke kaluar St. Giles pa kujdes.
04:08
And therefore, we're not going to be able to have many kids,
92
223000
2000
Prandaj, ne nuk do te jemi ne gjendje te lindim shume femije,
04:10
and kids are really important to most people."
93
225000
2000
dhe femijet jane shum te rendesishem per shum njerez."
04:12
And that's true.
94
227000
2000
Kjo eshte e vertete.
04:14
And you know, a lot of people try to fudge this question,
95
229000
3000
Dhe e dini ca, shume njerez mundohen ta evitojn kete pyetje,
04:17
and give answers like this.
96
232000
1000
and pergjigjen keshtu.
04:18
I don't agree with those answers. I think they basically don't work.
97
233000
3000
Une nuk jam dakort me keto pergjigje. Une ne parim mendoj se nuk funksionojne.
04:21
I think it's true, that we will face a dilemma in this respect.
98
236000
3000
Une mendoj se eshte e verete, do te perballemi me nje dileme.
04:24
We will have to decide whether to have a low birth rate,
99
239000
4000
Do na duhet te vendosim nese duhet te kemi nje shkalle te lindjes te ulet,
04:28
or a high death rate.
100
243000
2000
ose shkalle te lart te vdekjes.
04:30
A high death rate will, of course, arise from simply rejecting these therapies,
101
245000
3000
Nje shkalle e lart e vdekjes, sigurisht, vjen thjesht nga kundershtimi i ketyre terapive,
04:33
in favor of carrying on having a lot of kids.
102
248000
4000
ne favor te te pasurit shume femije.
04:37
And, I say that that's fine --
103
252000
2000
Dhe une them se kjo eshte ne rregull,
04:39
the future of humanity is entitled to make that choice.
104
254000
3000
e ardhmja e njerezimit ka te drejt te vendos keshtu.
04:42
What's not fine is for us to make that choice on behalf of the future.
105
257000
4000
Ajo cka nuk eshte e drejt eshte qe ne te bejme kete zgjedhje ne emer te te ardhmes.
04:46
If we vacillate, hesitate,
106
261000
2000
nese, ne luhatemi, hezitojm,
04:48
and do not actually develop these therapies,
107
263000
3000
dhe aktualisht nuk i zhvillojme keto terapi,
04:51
then we are condemning a whole cohort of people --
108
266000
4000
athere ne po denojm nje numer te madh njerezish,
04:55
who would have been young enough and healthy enough
109
270000
2000
te cilet do te ishin te rinj mjaftueshem dhe te shendetshem mjaftueshem
04:57
to benefit from those therapies, but will not be,
110
272000
2000
qe te perfitonin nga keto terapi, por nuk do te ndodhe,
04:59
because we haven't developed them as quickly as we could --
111
274000
2000
sepse ne nuk i kemi zhvilluar aq shpejt sa mundeshim--
05:01
we'll be denying those people an indefinite life span,
112
276000
2000
do t'i mohojm ketyre njerezve nje jetegjatesi te pacaktuar,
05:03
and I consider that that is immoral.
113
278000
2000
dhe une e konsideroj kete imporale.
05:05
That's my answer to the overpopulation question.
114
280000
3000
Kjo eshte pergjigja ime rreth pyetjes se mbipopullimit.
05:08
Right. So the next thing is,
115
283000
2000
Athere pika tjeter eshte,
05:10
now why should we get a little bit more active on this?
116
285000
2000
tani, perse duhet te jemi pak me teper active per kete?
05:12
And the fundamental answer is that
117
287000
2000
dhe pergjigja themelore eshte se,
05:14
the pro-aging trance is not as dumb as it looks.
118
289000
3000
pro plakja ekstaze nuk eshte aq budallallik sa duket.
05:17
It's actually a sensible way of coping with the inevitability of aging.
119
292000
4000
Perballimi i plakjes eshte nje ceshtje e ndjeshme.
05:21
Aging is ghastly, but it's inevitable, so, you know,
120
296000
4000
Plakja eshte e ngadalte, por e pashmangshme,
05:25
we've got to find some way to put it out of our minds,
121
300000
2000
duhet te gjejm nje menyre qe ta heqim nga mendjet tona,
05:27
and it's rational to do anything that we might want to do, to do that.
122
302000
4000
dhe eshte e arsyeshme qe te bejm gjithcka qe mundemi per ta bere kete gje.
05:31
Like, for example, making up these ridiculous reasons
123
306000
3000
Si per shembull te shpikim keto justifikime qesharake
05:34
why aging is actually a good thing after all.
124
309000
2000
perse plakja eshte nje gje e mire ne fund te fundit.
05:36
But of course, that only works when we have both of these components.
125
311000
4000
Por sigurisht, kjo do te funksiononte vetem nese do t'i kishim te dy keta perberes.
05:40
And as soon as the inevitability bit becomes a little bit unclear --
126
315000
3000
Dhe ne momentin kur paevitueshmeria behet e paqart
05:43
and we might be in range of doing something about aging --
127
318000
2000
athere ne do te jemi ne gamen e te berit dicka rreth plakjes
05:45
this becomes part of the problem.
128
320000
2000
kjo behet pjese e problemit.
05:47
This pro-aging trance is what stops us from agitating about these things.
129
322000
4000
Ky trance pro- plakjes eshte ajo cka na ndalon ne te agjitohemi rreth ketyre gjerave.
05:51
And that's why we have to really talk about this a lot --
130
326000
4000
Dhe prandaj ne duhet te flasim shum rreth kesaj--
05:55
evangelize, I will go so far as to say, quite a lot --
131
330000
2000
evangelize, une do te vazhdoj deri aty, sa te kem then mjaftueshem--
05:57
in order to get people's attention, and make people realize
132
332000
3000
ne menyre qe te terheq vemendjen e njerezve dhe ti beje njerezit te kuptojne
06:00
that they are in a trance in this regard.
133
335000
2000
qe jane ne nje trance rreth kesaj ceshtje.
06:02
So that's all I'm going to say about that.
134
337000
2000
Pra, kjo eshte cka une dua te them rreth kesaj ceshtje.
06:04
I'm now going to talk about feasibility.
135
339000
3000
Une tani do te flas per realizueshmerine.
06:07
And the fundamental reason, I think, why we feel that aging is inevitable
136
342000
4000
Dhe arsyen themelore, mendoj une, perse ne ndihemi se plakja eshte e pashmangshme
06:11
is summed up in a definition of aging that I'm giving here.
137
346000
3000
eshte e pjese e perkufizimit te plakjes qe une kam ketu.
06:14
A very simple definition.
138
349000
1000
Nje perkufizim shume i thjesht.
06:15
Aging is a side effect of being alive in the first place,
139
350000
3000
Plakja eshte pasoje e te qenit te gjalle,
06:18
which is to say, metabolism.
140
353000
2000
si pershembull, metabolizmi.
06:20
This is not a completely tautological statement;
141
355000
3000
Kjo nuk eshte nje deklarate e vertete;
06:23
it's a reasonable statement.
142
358000
1000
eshte nje dekrata e arsyeshme.
06:24
Aging is basically a process that happens to inanimate objects like cars,
143
359000
4000
Plakja eshte nje proces qe ndodh tek objektet e pajete, si makinat,
06:28
and it also happens to us,
144
363000
2000
dhe gjithashtu ndodh tek ne,
06:30
despite the fact that we have a lot of clever self-repair mechanisms,
145
365000
3000
pavarsisht nga fakti se ne kemi shum mekanizma te zgjuar vete-riparimi,
06:33
because those self-repair mechanisms are not perfect.
146
368000
2000
per shkak se keto mekanizma vete-riparimi nuk jane perfekte.
06:35
So basically, metabolism, which is defined as
147
370000
2000
Ne parim, metabolizmi, i ciki perkufizohet se
06:37
basically everything that keeps us alive from one day to the next,
148
372000
3000
eshte gjithcka qe na mban gjall cdo dite,
06:40
has side effects.
149
375000
2000
ka pasoja anesore.
06:42
Those side effects accumulate and eventually cause pathology.
150
377000
2000
Keto arsye anesore akumulohen dhe shkaktojn patologji.
06:44
That's a fine definition. So we can put it this way:
151
379000
2000
Ky eshte perkufizim perfekt. Mund te shprehemi ne kete menyre:
06:46
we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events.
152
381000
2000
mund te themi, se ne e kemi kete zinxhir eventesh.
06:48
And there are really two games in town,
153
383000
2000
Dhe jane dy gjera qe ndodhin,
06:50
according to most people, with regard to postponing aging.
154
385000
3000
simas shumices se njerezve, persa i perket shtyrjes se plakjes.
06:53
They're what I'm calling here the "gerontology approach" and the "geriatrics approach."
155
388000
4000
Keto jane ato cka une do ti quaja trajtimi gjerondologjik dhe trajtimi geriatrik.
06:57
The geriatrician will intervene late in the day,
156
392000
2000
Gjerondologjia do te perfshihet me vone,
06:59
when pathology is becoming evident,
157
394000
2000
kur patologjia te jete e dukshme,
07:01
and the geriatrician will try and hold back the sands of time,
158
396000
3000
dhe geriatriku do te mundohet te ndaloje kohen,
07:04
and stop the accumulation of side effects
159
399000
3000
dhe te ndaloje akumulimin e pasojave anesore
07:07
from causing the pathology quite so soon.
160
402000
2000
qe te shkaktojne nje patologji kaq heret.
07:09
Of course, it's a very short-term-ist strategy; it's a losing battle,
161
404000
3000
Sigurisht, eshte nje strategji kohe shkurter, eshte nje beteje e humbur,
07:12
because the things that are causing the pathology
162
407000
3000
sepse gjerat qe shkaktojn patologjine
07:15
are becoming more abundant as time goes on.
163
410000
2000
jane duke u shumuar me kalimin e kohes.
07:17
The gerontology approach looks much more promising on the surface,
164
412000
4000
Trajtimi gjerondologjik duket me permtimprues ne pamje te pare,
07:21
because, you know, prevention is better than cure.
165
416000
3000
sepse parandalimi eshte me mire se kurimi.
07:24
But unfortunately the thing is that we don't understand metabolism very well.
166
419000
3000
Por fatkeqesisht puna eshte se ne nuk e kuptojm shume mire metabolizmin.
07:27
In fact, we have a pitifully poor understanding of how organisms work --
167
422000
3000
Ne fakt, ne jemi per te ardhur keq persa i perket menyres se si funksionon organizmi--
07:30
even cells we're not really too good on yet.
168
425000
2000
edhe rreth qelizave nuk dime shume.
07:32
We've discovered things like, for example,
169
427000
2000
Kemi zbuluar gjera, si per shembull,
07:34
RNA interference only a few years ago,
170
429000
3000
ARN-ja vetem disa vite me pare,
07:37
and this is a really fundamental component of how cells work.
171
432000
2000
dhe kjo eshte dicka themelore sesi qelizat funksionojne.
07:39
Basically, gerontology is a fine approach in the end,
172
434000
3000
Ne parim, gjerondologjia eshte nje trajtim i mire,
07:42
but it is not an approach whose time has come
173
437000
2000
por nuk eshte nje trajtim per kohen qe ka ardhur,
07:44
when we're talking about intervention.
174
439000
2000
kur ne po flisnim per nje nderhyrje.
07:46
So then, what do we do about that?
175
441000
3000
At'here, cfare do te bejme rreth kesaj?
07:49
I mean, that's a fine logic, that sounds pretty convincing,
176
444000
2000
Dua te them qe kjo eshte llogjike, tingullon teper bindese,
07:51
pretty ironclad, doesn't it?
177
446000
2000
apo jo?
07:53
But it isn't.
178
448000
2000
Por nuk eshte.
07:55
Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit
179
450000
3000
Perpara se t'ju them perse nuk eshte, do te flas pak per
07:58
into what I'm calling step two.
180
453000
2000
ate cka une quaj faza e dyte.
08:00
Just suppose, as I said, that we do acquire --
181
455000
4000
Supozo, sic thashe, se ne fitojm--
08:04
let's say we do it today for the sake of argument --
182
459000
2000
le te themi se do ta bejm sot per hir te diskutimit --
08:06
the ability to confer 30 extra years of healthy life
183
461000
4000
aftesine per te akorduar 30 vjet extra ne nje jete te shendetshme
08:10
on people who are already in middle age, let's say 55.
184
465000
3000
tek njerezit qe jane ne moshen mesatare, le te themi 55 vjec.
08:13
I'm going to call that "robust human rejuvenation." OK.
185
468000
3000
Do ta quaj kete nje perteritje te fuqishme te njeriut. OK.
08:16
What would that actually mean
186
471000
1000
Cfare kjo do te nenkuptoj ne te vertete
08:17
for how long people of various ages today --
187
472000
3000
se sa gjate njerez te moshave te ndryshme sot --
08:20
or equivalently, of various ages at the time that these therapies arrive --
188
475000
3000
ose, mosha te ndryshme kur koha e terapive te vije --
08:24
would actually live?
189
479000
1000
do te jetonin?
08:26
In order to answer that question -- you might think it's simple,
190
481000
2000
Ne menyre qe ti pergjigjemi kesaj pyetje -- do te mendoje se eshte e thjesht,
08:28
but it's not simple.
191
483000
1000
por nuk eshte aq e thjesht.
08:29
We can't just say, "Well, if they're young enough to benefit from these therapies,
192
484000
3000
Nuk mund te themi thjesht, "Nese je i ri mjaftueshem per te perfituar nga keto terapi,
08:32
then they'll live 30 years longer."
193
487000
1000
do te mund te jetoni 30 vjet me shume."
08:33
That's the wrong answer.
194
488000
2000
Kjo eshte pergjigja e gabuar.
08:35
And the reason it's the wrong answer is because of progress.
195
490000
2000
Dhe arsyeja perse eshte e gabuar eshte per shkak te progresit.
08:37
There are two sorts of technological progress really,
196
492000
2000
Jane dy lloje progresi teknologjik,
08:39
for this purpose.
197
494000
1000
per kete qellim.
08:40
There are fundamental, major breakthroughs,
198
495000
3000
Ato jane themelore, parime te medha,
08:43
and there are incremental refinements of those breakthroughs.
199
498000
4000
dhe jane zhvillim i perpunimeve te ketyre parimeve.
08:47
Now, they differ a great deal
200
502000
2000
Tani, keto kane nje ndryshim te madh,
08:49
in terms of the predictability of time frames.
201
504000
3000
persa i perket parashikimit kohore.
08:52
Fundamental breakthroughs:
202
507000
1000
Parime themelore:
08:53
very hard to predict how long it's going to take
203
508000
2000
shume e veshtire te parashikohen se sa kohe do te duhet
08:55
to make a fundamental breakthrough.
204
510000
1000
te krijosh nje zbulim te madh themelore.
08:56
It was a very long time ago that we decided that flying would be fun,
205
511000
3000
Ka kaluar shume kohe qekur medonim se te flitironim do ishte qejf,
08:59
and it took us until 1903 to actually work out how to do it.
206
514000
3000
dhe na u desh te prisnim deri ne 1903 qe ta benim kete.
09:02
But after that, things were pretty steady and pretty uniform.
207
517000
4000
Por mbas kesaj, gjerat ishin shume te qendrueshme dhe uniforme.
09:06
I think this is a reasonable sequence of events that happened
208
521000
3000
Mendoj se kjo eshte nje sekuence e arsyeshme e eventeve qe ndodhen
09:09
in the progression of the technology of powered flight.
209
524000
4000
ne zhvillimin e teknologjise se flytyrimit.
09:13
We can think, really, that each one is sort of
210
528000
4000
Mund te mendojne, se gjithkush ishte
09:17
beyond the imagination of the inventor of the previous one, if you like.
211
532000
3000
pertej inmagjinates se shpikesit te meparshem, nese ju pelqen.
09:20
The incremental advances have added up to something
212
535000
4000
Zhvillimi i avancimeve kishte shtuar dicka
09:24
which is not incremental anymore.
213
539000
2000
e cila nuk ishte me zhvillim.
09:26
This is the sort of thing you see after a fundamental breakthrough.
214
541000
3000
Kjo eshte ajo cka shihet pas nje zbulimi te madh themelor.
09:29
And you see it in all sorts of technologies.
215
544000
2000
Dhe kjo vihet re ne lloje te ndryshme teknologjike.
09:31
Computers: you can look at a more or less parallel time line,
216
546000
3000
Kompjuterat, mund te shohesh nje ose me pak afat kohor,
09:34
happening of course a bit later.
217
549000
1000
qe ndodhin sigurisht pak me vone.
09:35
You can look at medical care. I mean, hygiene, vaccines, antibiotics --
218
550000
3000
Shikoni kujdesin shendetsor. Dua te them, higjenen, vaksinat, antibiotiket --
09:38
you know, the same sort of time frame.
219
553000
2000
te njejtat afate kohore.
09:40
So I think that actually step two, that I called a step a moment ago,
220
555000
4000
Pra une mendoj se ne fakt faza e dyte, qe une e quajta pak me pare,
09:44
isn't a step at all.
221
559000
1000
nuk eshte fare nje hap.
09:45
That in fact, the people who are young enough
222
560000
3000
Ku ne fakt, njerezit te cilet jane mjaftueshem te rinj
09:48
to benefit from these first therapies
223
563000
2000
te perfitojn prej ketyre terapive
09:50
that give this moderate amount of life extension,
224
565000
2000
qe mundesojn kete shtese ne jetegjatesi,
09:52
even though those people are already middle-aged when the therapies arrive,
225
567000
4000
edhe pse keta njerez do jene ne moshen mesatare kur kjo teknologji te vije,
09:56
will be at some sort of cusp.
226
571000
2000
do te jete ne kulmin e saj.
09:58
They will mostly survive long enough to receive improved treatments
227
573000
4000
Ata do te mbijetojn mjaftueshem per te marr trajtime te permiresuara
10:02
that will give them a further 30 or maybe 50 years.
228
577000
2000
qe do ti japi 30 ose ndoshta 50 vjet.
10:04
In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game.
229
579000
3000
Me fjale te tjera, ata do te ecin me kohen.
10:07
The therapies will be improving faster than
230
582000
3000
Terapite do te permiresohen me shpejt sesa
10:10
the remaining imperfections in the therapies are catching up with us.
231
585000
4000
terapite e joperfekte te koheve te sotme.
10:14
This is a very important point for me to get across.
232
589000
2000
Kjo eshte nje pike shume e rendesishme per t'u prekur.
10:16
Because, you know, most people, when they hear
233
591000
2000
Sepse, shum njerez, kur degjojne
10:18
that I predict that a lot of people alive today are going to live to 1,000 or more,
234
593000
5000
se une parashikoj se shum njerez qe jan gjalle sot do te jetojn 1,000 apo me shume,
10:23
they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent therapies in the next few decades
235
598000
4000
ata mendojne se une po them se ne do te shpikim terapi ne dekadad e ardhshme
10:27
that are so thoroughly eliminating aging
236
602000
3000
qe do te eleminojn plakjen teresisht
10:30
that those therapies will let us live to 1,000 or more.
237
605000
3000
dhe se keto terapi do te na lejojn te jetojm 1,000 apo me shume.
10:33
I'm not saying that at all.
238
608000
2000
Une nuk po them fare kete.
10:35
I'm saying that the rate of improvement of those therapies
239
610000
2000
Une po them se ritmi i zhvillimit te ketyre terapive
10:37
will be enough.
240
612000
1000
do jete e mjaftueshme.
10:38
They'll never be perfect, but we'll be able to fix the things
241
613000
3000
Ato nuk do jen kurre perfekt, por do te jemi ne gjendje te ndreqim gjerat
10:41
that 200-year-olds die of, before we have any 200-year-olds.
242
616000
3000
qe 200- vjecaret do te vdesin, perpara se te kemi ndonje 200- vjecare.
10:44
And the same for 300 and 400 and so on.
243
619000
2000
E njejta gje per 300, 400, e keshtu me rradhe.
10:46
I decided to give this a little name,
244
621000
3000
Kam vendosur ti jap nje emer kesaj,
10:49
which is "longevity escape velocity."
245
624000
1000
qe eshte "logevity escape velocity."
10:51
(Laughter)
246
626000
2000
(Buzeqeshje)
10:53
Well, it seems to get the point across.
247
628000
3000
Mesa duket e transmetova kuptimin.
10:56
So, these trajectories here are basically how we would expect people to live,
248
631000
5000
At'here, keto trajektore ketu tregojne sesi ne presim qe njerezit te jetojne,
11:01
in terms of remaining life expectancy,
249
636000
2000
persa i perket pritshmerise se jetegjatesise,
11:03
as measured by their health,
250
638000
2000
duke matur shendetin e tyre,
11:05
for given ages that they were at the time that these therapies arrive.
251
640000
3000
per moshat qe ata kishin kur keto terapi erdhen.
11:08
If you're already 100, or even if you're 80 --
252
643000
2000
Nese ti je 100, ose nese ti je 80 --
11:10
and an average 80-year-old,
253
645000
2000
dhe mesatarisht 80-vjecar,
11:12
we probably can't do a lot for you with these therapies,
254
647000
2000
ne nuk do mund te bejme shume per ju me keto terapi,
11:14
because you're too close to death's door
255
649000
2000
sepse jeni shume afer vdekjes
11:16
for the really initial, experimental therapies to be good enough for you.
256
651000
4000
ne menyre qe terapia eksperimentale, fillestare te jete mjaftueshem e mire per ty.
11:20
You won't be able to withstand them.
257
655000
1000
Ju nuk do ishit ne gjendje ti perballonit ato.
11:21
But if you're only 50, then there's a chance
258
656000
2000
Por nese je vetem 50, at'here do te kishit nje shanse
11:23
that you might be able to pull out of the dive and, you know --
259
658000
3000
dhe mund t'ia dalesh mbane.
11:26
(Laughter) --
260
661000
1000
(Buzeqeshje)
11:27
eventually get through this
261
662000
3000
dhe perfundimisht t'ia hedhesh kesaj
11:30
and start becoming biologically younger in a meaningful sense,
262
665000
3000
dhe te fillosh te behesh biologjikisht i ri ne nje sense kuptimplot,
11:33
in terms of your youthfulness, both physical and mental,
263
668000
2000
persa i perket rinise suaj, fiziksht dhe psikologjikisht,
11:35
and in terms of your risk of death from age-related causes.
264
670000
2000
dhe persa i perket rrezikut te vdekjes nga shkaqe te lidhura me moshen.
11:37
And of course, if you're a bit younger than that,
265
672000
2000
Dhe sigurisht, nese je pak me i ri se kaq,
11:39
then you're never really even going
266
674000
2000
at'here ju as nuk do te shkoni
11:41
to get near to being fragile enough to die of age-related causes.
267
676000
3000
afer te qenit aq i brisht sa te vdisni nga shkaqe lidhur me moshen.
11:44
So this is a genuine conclusion that I come to, that the first 150-year-old --
268
679000
5000
Keshtu qe ky eshte nje perfundim i cilter, qe 150 vjecari i pare --
11:49
we don't know how old that person is today,
269
684000
2000
nuk e dime sesa vjec eshte ai person sot,
11:51
because we don't know how long it's going to take
270
686000
2000
sepse nuk e dime sesa kohe do duhet
11:53
to get these first-generation therapies.
271
688000
2000
perpara se te hyjn gjenerata e pare e ketyre terapive.
11:55
But irrespective of that age,
272
690000
2000
Por pavarsisht nga mosha,
11:57
I'm claiming that the first person to live to 1,000 --
273
692000
4000
Une pretendoj qe personi i pare qe do jetoje 1,000 --
12:01
subject of course, to, you know, global catastrophes --
274
696000
3000
subjektive sigurisht, ndaj katastrofave globale --
12:04
is actually, probably, only about 10 years younger than the first 150-year-old.
275
699000
4000
eshte ne te vertet, vetem rreth 10 vjet me te rinj sesa 150 vjecari i pare.
12:08
And that's quite a thought.
276
703000
2000
Dhe kjo eshte nje goxha mendim.
12:10
Alright, so finally I'm going to spend the rest of the talk,
277
705000
3000
At'here, me ne fund do te shpenzoj pjese tjeter te fjalimit,
12:13
my last seven-and-a-half minutes, on step one;
278
708000
3000
shtate minutat e fundit, ne fazen e pare;
12:16
namely, how do we actually get to this moderate amount of life extension
279
711000
5000
domethene, se mund faktikisht te arrijm ne kete shtese te jetegjatesise
12:21
that will allow us to get to escape velocity?
280
716000
3000
kjo do na mundesoj te arrijn tek "escape velocity"?
12:24
And in order to do that, I need to talk about mice a little bit.
281
719000
4000
Dhe ne menyre qe te bejm kete, me duhet te flas rreth minjve per pak.
12:28
I have a corresponding milestone to robust human rejuvenation.
282
723000
3000
Une kam nje perteritje te fuqishme te njeriut, perkatesisht nje monument historik.
12:31
I'm calling it "robust mouse rejuvenation," not very imaginatively.
283
726000
3000
Une do ta quaj perteritje e fuqishme e miut, jo shume imagjinate.
12:34
And this is what it is.
284
729000
2000
Dhe ja cfare eshte.
12:36
I say we're going to take a long-lived strain of mouse,
285
731000
2000
Une them se do te marrim nje lloj miu jetegjate,
12:38
which basically means mice that live about three years on average.
286
733000
3000
e cila domethene minjt te cilet jetojn mesatarisht tre vjec.
12:41
We do exactly nothing to them until they're already two years old.
287
736000
3000
Ne nuk do bejm asgje me ta derisa te arrijn dy vjec.
12:44
And then we do a whole bunch of stuff to them,
288
739000
2000
Dhe pastaj bejm shum gjera me ta,
12:46
and with those therapies, we get them to live,
289
741000
2000
dhe me keto terapi, i bejme qe ata te jetojne,
12:48
on average, to their fifth birthday.
290
743000
2000
mesatarisht, deri ne pese vjec.
12:50
So, in other words, we add two years --
291
745000
2000
Me fjale te tjera do ti shtojm dy vite jete --
12:52
we treble their remaining lifespan,
292
747000
2000
ne ia shtojm jetegjatesine,
12:54
starting from the point that we started the therapies.
293
749000
2000
duke filluar nga pika kur filluam terapine.
12:56
The question then is, what would that actually mean for the time frame
294
751000
3000
Pyetja eshte, cfare do te thote kjo per afatin kohor
12:59
until we get to the milestone I talked about earlier for humans?
295
754000
3000
derisa te arrijm tek monumenti historik qe fola pak me pare per njerezit?
13:02
Which we can now, as I've explained,
296
757000
2000
Tani mundemi, ashtu sic e shpjegova,
13:04
equivalently call either robust human rejuvenation or longevity escape velocity.
297
759000
4000
barazvlefshmerisht ta quajme ose perteritje e fuqishme e njerezve, ose "longevity escape velocity".
13:08
Secondly, what does it mean for the public's perception
298
763000
3000
Se dyti, cfare do kuptimi ka ne perceptimin e publikut
13:11
of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things,
299
766000
2000
sesa kohe do te na duhet te arrij tek keto gjera,
13:13
starting from the time we get the mice?
300
768000
2000
duke filluar nga koha kur marrim miun?
13:15
And thirdly, the question is, what will it do
301
770000
2000
Dhe se treti, pyetja eshte, cfare do t'i bej
13:17
to actually how much people want it?
302
772000
1000
faktit se sa shum njerezit e duan?
13:19
And it seems to me that the first question
303
774000
2000
Dhe sipas meje pyetja e pare
13:21
is entirely a biology question,
304
776000
1000
eshte komplet pyetje biologjike,
13:22
and it's extremely hard to answer.
305
777000
2000
dhe eshte ekstremisht e veshtire per t'u pergjigjur.
13:24
One has to be very speculative,
306
779000
2000
Duhet te jesh shume teorik,
13:26
and many of my colleagues would say that we should not do this speculation,
307
781000
3000
dhe shume kolege te mi do te thonin se nuk duhet ta bej kete meditim,
13:29
that we should simply keep our counsel until we know more.
308
784000
4000
thjeshte duhet ta ruajm konsullimin tone deri sa te dime me teper.
13:33
I say that's nonsense.
309
788000
1000
Une them se kjo s'ka kuptim.
13:34
I say we absolutely are irresponsible if we stay silent on this.
310
789000
3000
Une them jemi komplet te papergjegjshem nese qendrojm pa folur rreth kesaj.
13:37
We need to give our best guess as to the time frame,
311
792000
3000
Ne duhet te japim me hamendje se ne cilin afat kohore,
13:40
in order to give people a sense of proportion
312
795000
3000
ne menyre qe t'iu japim njerezve domethenie
13:43
so that they can assess their priorities.
313
798000
2000
se kur ata mund t'i diskutojn prioritetet e tyre.
13:45
So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance
314
800000
3000
Keshtu qe une do te thoja se ka 50/50 mundesi
13:48
of reaching this RHR milestone,
315
803000
2000
te arrijm kete RHR eveniment historik,
13:50
robust human rejuvenation, within 15 years from the point
316
805000
3000
"RHR", brenda ketyre 15 viteve
13:53
that we get to robust mouse rejuvenation.
317
808000
2000
do mund te zgjasim jetegjatesine e minjve.
13:55
15 years from the robust mouse.
318
810000
3000
15 vite pas zgjatjes se minjve.
13:58
The public's perception will probably be somewhat better than that.
319
813000
3000
Perceptimi i publikut me siguri do te jete me permiresuar.
14:01
The public tends to underestimate how difficult scientific things are.
320
816000
2000
Publiku priret ta nenvleresoje sesa e veshtire eshte shkenca.
14:03
So they'll probably think it's five years away.
321
818000
2000
Keshtu qe ata me siguri do mendojne se eshte pese vjet nga tani.
14:05
They'll be wrong, but that actually won't matter too much.
322
820000
2000
Ata do jene gabim, por faktikisht s'do ket shum rendesi.
14:07
And finally, of course, I think it's fair to say
323
822000
3000
Perfundimisht, mendoj se eshte e drejt te them
14:10
that a large part of the reason why the public is so ambivalent about aging now
324
825000
4000
sepse nje arye shume e fort perse publiku eshte kaq i ndare rreth moshes tani
14:14
is the global trance I spoke about earlier, the coping strategy.
325
829000
2000
eshte nje trance global per te cilin fola me heret, perballimi strategjik.
14:16
That will be history at this point,
326
831000
2000
Kjo do behet histori ne kete pike,
14:18
because it will no longer be possible to believe that aging is inevitable in humans,
327
833000
3000
sepse nuk do te besohet se evitimi i plakjes tek njerezit nuk eshte e mundur,
14:21
since it's been postponed so very effectively in mice.
328
836000
3000
perderisa eshte shtyre me kaq efikasitet tek minjt.
14:24
So we're likely to end up with a very strong change in people's attitudes,
329
839000
4000
Keshtu qe do te shohim nje ndryshim te madh ne sjelljen e njerezve,
14:28
and of course that has enormous implications.
330
843000
2000
dhe sigurisht kjo do kete pasoja te medha.
14:31
So in order to tell you now how we're going to get these mice,
331
846000
2000
Ne menyre qe t'iu them se si do ti marrim keto minj,
14:34
I'm going to add a little bit to my description of aging.
332
849000
2000
Do te shtoj dicka tek pershkrimi im per plakjen.
14:36
I'm going to use this word "damage"
333
851000
2000
Do te perdore kete fjale "dem"
14:38
to denote these intermediate things that are caused by metabolism
334
853000
4000
te paraqes keto gjera te ndermjetme qe shkaktohen nga metabolismi,
14:42
and that eventually cause pathology.
335
857000
2000
qe shkakton patologjine.
14:44
Because the critical thing about this
336
859000
2000
Sepse gjeja kritike rreth kesaj
14:46
is that even though the damage only eventually causes pathology,
337
861000
2000
eshte, edhe pse demi shkakton vetem pathologji,
14:48
the damage itself is caused ongoing-ly throughout life, starting before we're born.
338
863000
5000
demi ne vetvete shkaktohet vazhdimisht gjate jetes, duke filluar perpara se ne te lindim.
14:53
But it is not part of metabolism itself.
339
868000
3000
Por nuk eshte pjese e metabolismit ne vetvete.
14:56
And this turns out to be useful.
340
871000
1000
Dhe kjo eshte me vlere.
14:57
Because we can re-draw our original diagram this way.
341
872000
3000
Sepse mund ta vizatojm perseri diagramen origjinale ne kete menyre.
15:00
We can say that, fundamentally, the difference between gerontology and geriatrics
342
875000
3000
Mund te themi, rrenjesisht, diferenca midis gerondologjise dhe gjeriatrise
15:03
is that gerontology tries to inhibit the rate
343
878000
2000
eshte se gerondologjia mundohet te frenoj shkallen
15:05
at which metabolism lays down this damage.
344
880000
2000
me te cilen metabolismi shkakton kete dem.
15:07
And I'm going to explain exactly what damage is
345
882000
2000
Dhe une do te shpjegoj eksaktesisht cfare demi eshte
15:09
in concrete biological terms in a moment.
346
884000
2000
ne terma konkrete biologjike ne nje moment.
15:12
And geriatricians try to hold back the sands of time
347
887000
2000
Dhe gjeriatricianet mundohen te frenojne kohen
15:14
by stopping the damage converting into pathology.
348
889000
2000
duke ndaluar demin e konvertimit ne patologji.
15:16
And the reason it's a losing battle
349
891000
2000
Dhe aryeja eshte nje beteje e humbur
15:18
is because the damage is continuing to accumulate.
350
893000
2000
sepse demi vazhdon te akumulohet.
15:20
So there's a third approach, if we look at it this way.
351
895000
3000
At'here eshte nje trajtin i trete, nese e shohim nga kjo ane.
15:23
We can call it the "engineering approach,"
352
898000
2000
Mund ta quajme trajtimi inxhinierik,
15:25
and I claim that the engineering approach is within range.
353
900000
3000
dhe une pretendoj se trajtimi inxhinierik eshte pjese e zgjidhjes.
15:28
The engineering approach does not intervene in any processes.
354
903000
3000
Trajtimi inxhinierik nuk eshte nderhyne ne asnje proces.
15:31
It does not intervene in this process or this one.
355
906000
2000
Nuk nderhyne ne kete, apo ate proces.
15:33
And that's good because it means that it's not a losing battle,
356
908000
3000
Dhe kjo domethene se nuk eshte nje beteje e humber,
15:36
and it's something that we are within range of being able to do,
357
911000
3000
dhe eshte dicka qe eshte midis mundesive,
15:39
because it doesn't involve improving on evolution.
358
914000
3000
sepse nuk perfshin permiresim apo evolim.
15:42
The engineering approach simply says,
359
917000
2000
Trajtimi inxhinierik thjesht thote,
15:44
"Let's go and periodically repair all of these various types of damage --
360
919000
4000
"Hajde te shkojme periodikisht te riparojm keto lloje te ndryshme demesh --
15:48
not necessarily repair them completely, but repair them quite a lot,
361
923000
4000
nuk eshte e nevojshme ti riparojm komplet, por ti riparojm goxha,
15:52
so that we keep the level of damage down below the threshold
362
927000
3000
ne menyre qe ta ruajm nivelin e demit nen pragun
15:55
that must exist, that causes it to be pathogenic."
363
930000
3000
qe duhet te eksiztoj, qe e shkakton ate te jete patologjik."
15:58
We know that this threshold exists,
364
933000
2000
Ne e dime se ky prag eksizston,
16:00
because we don't get age-related diseases until we're in middle age,
365
935000
3000
sepse nuk kemi semundje te lidhura me moshen derisa arrijne ne moshen e mesme,
16:03
even though the damage has been accumulating since before we were born.
366
938000
3000
edhe pse demi ka qene duke u akumuluar perpara se te lindnim.
16:06
Why do I say that we're in range? Well, this is basically it.
367
941000
4000
Pse them se jemi ne diapazon? E pra kjo eshte e gjitha.
16:10
The point about this slide is actually the bottom.
368
945000
3000
Pika kryesore e ketij slidi eshte fundi i tij.
16:13
If we try to say which bits of metabolism are important for aging,
369
948000
3000
Nese filloj te themi se cila copez e metabolismit jane te rendesishme per plakjen,
16:16
we will be here all night, because basically all of metabolism
370
951000
3000
do te rrinim ketu gjith naten, sepse i gjithe metabolizmi
16:19
is important for aging in one way or another.
371
954000
2000
eshte i rendesishem per plakjen ne nje menyre apo tjeter.
16:21
This list is just for illustration; it is incomplete.
372
956000
2000
Kjo list eshte thjesht per ilustrim, eshte e pakompletuar.
16:24
The list on the right is also incomplete.
373
959000
2000
Lista ne te djathte gjithashtu eshte e pakompletuar.
16:26
It's a list of types of pathology that are age-related,
374
961000
3000
Eshte nje list e llojeve te patologjis qe jane te lidhura me moshen,
16:29
and it's just an incomplete list.
375
964000
2000
dhe eshte thjesht nje liste e pakompletuar.
16:31
But I would like to claim to you that this list in the middle is actually complete --
376
966000
3000
Por une pretendoj se kjo liste ne mes eshte e kompletuar,
16:34
this is the list of types of thing that qualify as damage,
377
969000
3000
kjo eshte lista e gjerave te cilat qualifikojn si deme,
16:37
side effects of metabolism that cause pathology in the end,
378
972000
3000
pasojat anesore te metabolizmit qe shkaktojn patologjine ne fund,
16:40
or that might cause pathology.
379
975000
2000
apo qe mund te shkaktojn patologjine.
16:42
And there are only seven of them.
380
977000
3000
Jane vetem shtate.
16:45
They're categories of things, of course, but there's only seven of them.
381
980000
3000
Kategorizohen ne nje, por jane shtate te tilla.
16:48
Cell loss, mutations in chromosomes, mutations in the mitochondria and so on.
382
983000
5000
Humbja e qelizave, mutacione ne kromozome, mutacione ne mitokondrine e keshtu me rralle.
16:53
First of all, I'd like to give you an argument for why that list is complete.
383
988000
5000
Se pari, dua te argumentoj per kjo list eshte e kompletuar.
16:58
Of course one can make a biological argument.
384
993000
2000
Sigurisht, dikush mund te kete nje argument biologjik.
17:00
One can say, "OK, what are we made of?"
385
995000
2000
Dikush mund te thot, "OK, nga cfare perbehemi ne?"
17:02
We're made of cells and stuff between cells.
386
997000
2000
Ne perbehemi nga qeliza dhe gjera midis qelizave.
17:04
What can damage accumulate in?
387
999000
3000
Si mund te akumulohet demi?
17:07
The answer is: long-lived molecules,
388
1002000
2000
Pergjigja eshte, molekula jetegjata,
17:09
because if a short-lived molecule undergoes damage, but then the molecule is destroyed --
389
1004000
3000
sepse nese nje molekul jeteshkurter i nenshtrohet demit, athere molekula shkaterrohet --
17:12
like by a protein being destroyed by proteolysis -- then the damage is gone, too.
390
1007000
4000
si nga shkaterrimi i nje proteine nga proteolysis -- athere demi ka ikur, gjithashtu.
17:16
It's got to be long-lived molecules.
391
1011000
2000
Duhet te jene molekula jetegjata.
17:18
So, these seven things were all under discussion in gerontology a long time ago
392
1013000
3000
Keto 7 gjera jane pjese e diskutimit ne gjereondologji shume kohe me pare
17:21
and that is pretty good news, because it means that,
393
1016000
4000
dhe ky eshte lajm i mire, sepse nenkupton se,
17:25
you know, we've come a long way in biology in these 20 years,
394
1020000
2000
jemi zhvilluar goxha ne bilogji keto 20 vite,
17:27
so the fact that we haven't extended this list
395
1022000
2000
fakti qe nuk e kemi shtuar listen
17:29
is a pretty good indication that there's no extension to be done.
396
1024000
3000
eshte nje shenje se nuk ka per tu bere ndonje shtese.
17:33
However, it's better than that; we actually know how to fix them all,
397
1028000
2000
Megjithate, eshte me mire se kaq; faktikisht ne e dime si ti ndrecim te gjitha keto
17:35
in mice, in principle -- and what I mean by in principle is,
398
1030000
3000
tek minjt, ne princip -- ajo cka nenkuptoj me princip eshte se,
17:38
we probably can actually implement these fixes within a decade.
399
1033000
3000
me siguri mund ti implementojm keto ndrecje kete dekade.
17:41
Some of them are partially implemented already, the ones at the top.
400
1036000
4000
Disa nga keto jane pjeserisht te implementuara, ato te sipermet.
17:45
I haven't got time to go through them at all, but
401
1040000
3000
Nuk kam pasur kohe te diskutoj per to, por
17:48
my conclusion is that, if we can actually get suitable funding for this,
402
1043000
4000
konkluzioni eshte se, nese ne mund te gjejme fondet e nevojshme per kete,
17:52
then we can probably develop robust mouse rejuvenation in only 10 years,
403
1047000
4000
at'here me siguri mund te zhvillojme nje rinim te fuqishem te minjve brenda 10 viteve,
17:56
but we do need to get serious about it.
404
1051000
3000
por duhet ta marrim seriozisht.
17:59
We do need to really start trying.
405
1054000
1000
Duhet qe vertet te fillojme te bejme perpjekje.
18:01
So of course, there are some biologists in the audience,
406
1056000
3000
Natyrisht, jane disa biolog ne audience,
18:04
and I want to give some answers to some of the questions that you may have.
407
1059000
3000
dhe dua t'iu pergjigjem disa pyetjeve qe ju mund te keni.
18:07
You may have been dissatisfied with this talk,
408
1062000
2000
You mund te jeni zhgenjyer nga ky fjalim,
18:09
but fundamentally you have to go and read this stuff.
409
1064000
2000
por thellesisht ju duhet te shkoni dhe te lexoni keto gjera.
18:11
I've published a great deal on this;
410
1066000
2000
Une kam publikuar shume rreth kesaj;
18:13
I cite the experimental work on which my optimism is based,
411
1068000
3000
I citoj eksperimentet ku optimizmi im bazohet,
18:16
and there's quite a lot of detail there.
412
1071000
2000
dhe ka shume detaje aty.
18:18
The detail is what makes me confident
413
1073000
2000
Detajet jane ato qe me krijojne mua vetebesim
18:20
of my rather aggressive time frames that I'm predicting here.
414
1075000
2000
te prashikimeve agresive te afateve kohore ketu.
18:22
So if you think that I'm wrong,
415
1077000
2000
Pra, nese mendoni se jam gabim,
18:24
you'd better damn well go and find out why you think I'm wrong.
416
1079000
3000
Duhet te shkoni dhe te gjeni perse une jam gabim.
18:28
And of course the main thing is that you shouldn't trust people
417
1083000
3000
Dhe sigurisht kryesorja eshte qe nuk duhet ti besoni njerezit
18:31
who call themselves gerontologists because,
418
1086000
2000
qe e quajne veten gjerendolog sepse,
18:33
as with any radical departure from previous thinking within a particular field,
419
1088000
4000
si cdo largim radikal nga nje mendim i meparshem rreth nje fushe te caktuar,
18:37
you know, you expect people in the mainstream to be a bit resistant
420
1092000
4000
pret qe njerez ne qender te jeni rezistent
18:41
and not really to take it seriously.
421
1096000
2000
dhe nuk duhen marre seriozisht.
18:43
So, you know, you've got to actually do your homework,
422
1098000
2000
Keshtu qe duhet ti besh detyrat e shtepise,
18:45
in order to understand whether this is true.
423
1100000
1000
ne menyre qe te kuptosh nese kjo eshte e vertete.
18:46
And we'll just end with a few things.
424
1101000
2000
Dhe do ta mbyllim me disa gjera.
18:48
One thing is, you know, you'll be hearing from a guy in the next session
425
1103000
3000
Do te degjoni nga dikush qe do vije ne seksionin tjeter
18:51
who said some time ago that he could sequence the human genome in half no time,
426
1106000
4000
i cili tha kohe me pare se mund te rendiste gjenomin e njeriut per pak kohe,
18:55
and everyone said, "Well, it's obviously impossible."
427
1110000
2000
dhe te gjithe thane, "E pra, eshte e pamundur."
18:57
And you know what happened.
428
1112000
1000
Dhe ju e dini se cfare ndodhi.
18:58
So, you know, this does happen.
429
1113000
4000
Keshtu qe kjo ndodh.
19:02
We have various strategies -- there's the Methuselah Mouse Prize,
430
1117000
2000
Ne kemi disa strategji -- eshte Methuselah Mouse Prize,
19:04
which is basically an incentive to innovate,
431
1119000
3000
e cila eshte ne themel nje shperblim per te motivuar,
19:07
and to do what you think is going to work,
432
1122000
3000
dhe te besh ate qe ti mendon se do te funksionoje,
19:10
and you get money for it if you win.
433
1125000
2000
dhe merr para nese fiton.
19:13
There's a proposal to actually put together an institute.
434
1128000
3000
Eshte nje propozim qe te krijohet nje institute.
19:16
This is what's going to take a bit of money.
435
1131000
2000
Kjo do te kishte shume shpenzime.
19:18
But, I mean, look -- how long does it take to spend that on the war in Iraq?
436
1133000
3000
Sa kohe do te merrte ta shpenzoje ate ne luften e Irakut?
19:21
Not very long. OK.
437
1136000
1000
Jo shum kohe. OK.
19:22
(Laughter)
438
1137000
1000
(Buzeqeshje)
19:23
It's got to be philanthropic, because profits distract biotech,
439
1138000
3000
Duhet te jet filantropike, sepse fitimet e hutojne biotech,
19:26
but it's basically got a 90 percent chance, I think, of succeeding in this.
440
1141000
4000
por ne parim ka 90 perqind shanse, mendoj une, qe te jemi te suksesshem.
19:30
And I think we know how to do it. And I'll stop there.
441
1145000
3000
Dhe mendoj se dime sesi ta bejm. Dhe do ndaloj aty.
19:33
Thank you.
442
1148000
1000
Faleminderit.
19:34
(Applause)
443
1149000
5000
(Duartrokitje)
19:39
Chris Anderson: OK. I don't know if there's going to be any questions
444
1154000
3000
Chris Anderson: OK. Nuk di nese keni ndonje pyetje
19:42
but I thought I would give people the chance.
445
1157000
2000
por mendova t'iu jap njerezve nje shanse.
19:44
Audience: Since you've been talking about aging and trying to defeat it,
446
1159000
4000
Audienca: Meqenese ke folur per plakjen dhe si mund ta mposhtim ate,
19:48
why is it that you make yourself appear like an old man?
447
1163000
4000
perse e ben veten te dukesh si nje plake?
19:52
(Laughter)
448
1167000
4000
(Buzeqeshje)
19:56
AG: Because I am an old man. I am actually 158.
449
1171000
3000
AG: Sepse une jam nje plake. Jame ne fakt 158 vjece.
19:59
(Laughter)
450
1174000
1000
(Buzeqeshje)
20:00
(Applause)
451
1175000
3000
(Duartrokitje)
20:03
Audience: Species on this planet have evolved with immune systems
452
1178000
4000
Audience: Speciet e planetit kane evoluar me sistemi imunitar,
20:07
to fight off all the diseases so that individuals live long enough to procreate.
453
1182000
4000
per te luftuar te gjitha semundjet ne menyre qe individed te jetojn mjaftueshem per te ri-krijuar.
20:11
However, as far as I know, all the species have evolved to actually die,
454
1186000
5000
Megjitheate, aq sa une jam ne dijeni, te gjitha qeniet evolojn per te vdekur,
20:16
so when cells divide, the telomerase get shorter, and eventually species die.
455
1191000
5000
kur qelizat shumefishohen, telomerase behet e shkurter, dhe speciet vdesin.
20:21
So, why does -- evolution has -- seems to have selected against immortality,
456
1196000
5000
Athere, perse -- evolucioni -- duket sikur ka zgjedhur kunder pavdekshmerise,
20:26
when it is so advantageous, or is evolution just incomplete?
457
1201000
4000
kur eshte kaq avantazhuese, apo eshte evolucioni i pakompletuar?
20:30
AG: Brilliant. Thank you for asking a question
458
1205000
2000
AG: I madh je. Te falenderoj qe me bere nje pyetje
20:32
that I can answer with an uncontroversial answer.
459
1207000
2000
qe mund ti pergjigjem me nje pergjigje te pakundershtueshme.
20:34
I'm going to tell you the genuine mainstream answer to your question,
460
1209000
3000
Une do t'i pergjigjem me ciltersi dhe me pergjigjen e zakonshme,
20:37
which I happen to agree with,
461
1212000
2000
me te cilen une jam dakort,
20:39
which is that, no, aging is not a product of selection, evolution;
462
1214000
3000
e cila eshte, jo, plakja nuk eshte produkt i selektimit, evolucion;
20:42
[aging] is simply a product of evolutionary neglect.
463
1217000
2000
[plakje] eshte thjesht nje produkt i neglizhimit te evolucionit.
20:45
In other words, we have aging because it's hard work not to have aging;
464
1220000
5000
Me fjale te tjera, ne kemi plakjen pasi duhet shume pune mos ta kemi ate;
20:50
you need more genetic pathways, more sophistication in your genes
465
1225000
2000
te duhet me shume rruge gjenetike, me shume gjene te sofistikuara
20:52
in order to age more slowly,
466
1227000
2000
ne menyre qe te plakesh me ngadale
20:54
and that carries on being true the longer you push it out.
467
1229000
3000
dhe kjo vazhdon te vertetohet kur ne e nxjerrim ne pahe.
20:57
So, to the extent that evolution doesn't matter,
468
1232000
5000
Pra, perforcoj se evolucioni nuk ka rendesi,
21:02
doesn't care whether genes are passed on by individuals,
469
1237000
2000
nuk me intereson nese gjenet vijne nga individed,
21:04
living a long time or by procreation,
470
1239000
2000
te jetosh nje kohe te gjate apo nga pjelloria,
21:07
there's a certain amount of modulation of that,
471
1242000
2000
ajo eshte e rregulluar ne nje sasi te caktuar,
21:09
which is why different species have different lifespans,
472
1244000
3000
ja pse specie te ndryshme kane jetegjatesi te ndryshme,
21:12
but that's why there are no immortal species.
473
1247000
2000
por prandaj nuk ka specie te pavdekshme.
21:15
CA: The genes don't care but we do?
474
1250000
2000
CA: Gjeneve nuk iu intereson por neve po?
21:17
AG: That's right.
475
1252000
1000
AG: Kjo eshte e vertete.
21:19
Audience: Hello. I read somewhere that in the last 20 years,
476
1254000
5000
Audience: Pershendetje. Kam lexuar diku se ne 20 vitet e fundit,
21:24
the average lifespan of basically anyone on the planet has grown by 10 years.
477
1259000
5000
jetegjatesia mesatare ne planet eshte rritur me 10 vjet.
21:29
If I project that, that would make me think
478
1264000
3000
Sipas kesaj une projektoj,
21:32
that I would live until 120 if I don't crash on my motorbike.
479
1267000
4000
se do te jetoj deri ne 120 vjec nese nuk pesoj aksident me motor.
21:37
That means that I'm one of your subjects to become a 1,000-year-old?
480
1272000
5000
Kjo do te thot se une do te jem nje nga subjektet e tua per tu bere 1000 vjec?
21:42
AG: If you lose a bit of weight.
481
1277000
1000
AG: Nese humb pak ne peshe.
21:44
(Laughter)
482
1279000
3000
(Buzeqeshje)
21:47
Your numbers are a bit out.
483
1282000
3000
Llogaria juaj nuk eshte e sakte.
21:50
The standard numbers are that lifespans
484
1285000
3000
Numrat standard thone se jetegjatesite
21:53
have been growing at between one and two years per decade.
485
1288000
3000
kane ardhur duke u rritur 1 ose 2 vjet per dekade.
21:56
So, it's not quite as good as you might think, you might hope.
486
1291000
3000
Keshtu qe nuk eshte aq mire sa ju mendoni -- apo shpresoni.
22:00
But I intend to move it up to one year per year as soon as possible.
487
1295000
2000
Por une planifikoj ta rrise nje 1 vit per cdo vit sa me shpejt te jet e mundur.
22:03
Audience: I was told that many of the brain cells we have as adults
488
1298000
3000
Audience: Me kane then se shume prej qelizave te trurit qe kemi si adult
22:06
are actually in the human embryo,
489
1301000
1000
ndodhen ne embrionin e njeriut,
22:08
and that the brain cells last 80 years or so.
490
1303000
2000
dhe qelizat e trurit zgjasin 80 vjet apo dicka e till.
22:10
If that is indeed true,
491
1305000
2000
Nese kjo eshte e vertete,
22:12
biologically are there implications in the world of rejuvenation?
492
1307000
3000
biologjikisht a do te kete implikacione ne boten e rinimit?
22:15
If there are cells in my body that live all 80 years,
493
1310000
3000
Nese ka qeliza ne trupin tim qe jetojn vec 80 vjet,
22:18
as opposed to a typical, you know, couple of months?
494
1313000
2000
ne kundershtim me disa muaj?
22:20
AG: There are technical implications certainly.
495
1315000
2000
AG: Do te kete implikime teknike, sigurisht.
22:22
Basically what we need to do is replace cells
496
1317000
3000
Ne themel, ajo cka duhet te bejme eshte ti zevendesojme qelizat
22:26
in those few areas of the brain that lose cells at a respectable rate,
497
1321000
3000
ne ato pjese te trurit ku humbasin qelizat me shkalle te larte,
22:29
especially neurons, but we don't want to replace them
498
1324000
3000
sidomos neuronet, por nuk duam ti zevendesojm ato
22:32
any faster than that -- or not much faster anyway,
499
1327000
2000
me shpejt se aq -- ose jo shume shpejt gjithesesi,
22:34
because replacing them too fast would degrade cognitive function.
500
1329000
4000
sepse duke i zevendesuar ato shum shpejte do te degradonte funksionet njohese.
22:38
What I said about there being no non-aging species earlier on
501
1333000
3000
Ajo c'ka thashe me heret se nuk ka specie qe nuk plaken
22:41
was a little bit of an oversimplification.
502
1336000
2000
ishte shume e thjeshtezuar.
22:43
There are species that have no aging -- Hydra for example --
503
1338000
4000
Ka specie qe nuk plaken -- Hidra per shembull --
22:47
but they do it by not having a nervous system --
504
1342000
2000
por e bejne kete pa patur nje sistem nervor --
22:49
and not having any tissues in fact that rely for their function
505
1344000
2000
dhe pa patur ndonje organ qe varet nga funksionet e tyre
22:51
on very long-lived cells.
506
1346000
2000
ne cdo qelize jetegjate.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Aubrey de Grey - Crusader against agingAubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born.
Why you should listen
A true maverick, Aubrey de Grey challenges the most basic assumption underlying the human condition -- that aging is inevitable. He argues instead that aging is a disease -- one that can be cured if it's approached as "an engineering problem." His plan calls for identifying all the components that cause human tissue to age, and designing remedies for each of them — forestalling disease and eventually pushing back death. He calls the approach Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS).
With his astonishingly long beard, wiry frame and penchant for bold and cutting proclamations, de Grey is a magnet for controversy. A computer scientist, self-taught biogerontologist and researcher, he has co-authored journal articles with some of the most respected scientists in the field.
But the scientific community doesn't know what to make of him. In July 2005, the MIT Technology Review challenged scientists to disprove de Grey's claims, offering a $20,000 prize (half the prize money was put up by de Grey's Methuselah Foundation) to any molecular biologist who could demonstrate that "SENS is so wrong that it is unworthy of learned debate." The challenge remains open; the judging panel includes TEDsters Craig Venter and Nathan Myhrvold. It seems that "SENS exists in a middle ground of yet-to-be-tested ideas that some people may find intriguing but which others are free to doubt," MIT's judges wrote. And while they "don't compel the assent of many knowledgeable scientists," they're also "not demonstrably wrong."
Aubrey de Grey | Speaker | TED.com