ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Aubrey de Grey - Crusader against aging
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born.

Why you should listen

A true maverick, Aubrey de Grey challenges the most basic assumption underlying the human condition -- that aging is inevitable. He argues instead that aging is a disease -- one that can be cured if it's approached as "an engineering problem." His plan calls for identifying all the components that cause human tissue to age, and designing remedies for each of them — forestalling disease and eventually pushing back death. He calls the approach Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS).

With his astonishingly long beard, wiry frame and penchant for bold and cutting proclamations, de Grey is a magnet for controversy. A computer scientist, self-taught biogerontologist and researcher, he has co-authored journal articles with some of the most respected scientists in the field.

But the scientific community doesn't know what to make of him. In July 2005, the MIT Technology Review challenged scientists to disprove de Grey's claims, offering a $20,000 prize (half the prize money was put up by de Grey's Methuselah Foundation) to any molecular biologist who could demonstrate that "SENS is so wrong that it is unworthy of learned debate." The challenge remains open; the judging panel includes TEDsters Craig Venter and Nathan Myhrvold. It seems that "SENS exists in a middle ground of yet-to-be-tested ideas that some people may find intriguing but which others are free to doubt," MIT's judges wrote. And while they "don't compel the assent of many knowledgeable scientists," they're also "not demonstrably wrong."

More profile about the speaker
Aubrey de Grey | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2005

Aubrey de Grey: A roadmap to end aging

艾伯‧得桂 (Aubrey de Grey) 宣稱我們可以避免老化。

Filmed:
4,332,848 views

劍橋學者 艾伯‧得桂 (Aubrey de Grey) 辯稱,老化現象只不過是一種疾病 ----- 一種可治癒的疾病。人類主要以七種型態老化;他說,這些全都可以避免。
- Crusader against aging
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
18 minutes分鐘 is an absolutely絕對 brutal野蠻 time limit限制,
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18分鐘的時間限制真是苛刻,
00:27
so I'm going to dive潛水 straight直行 in, right at the point
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那麼我將直切入核心主題,
00:29
where I get this thing to work.
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等我把這機器弄好。
00:31
Here we go. I'm going to talk about five different不同 things.
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好了。我會分別談到五個話題。
00:33
I'm going to talk about why defeating擊敗 aging老化 is desirable合意.
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我會講為什麼戰勝衰老是可取的。
00:36
I'm going to talk about why we have to get our shit拉屎 together一起,
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我會講為什麼我們得"痛改前非"
00:38
and actually其實 talk about this a bit more than we do.
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在這方面得要比現在討論更多一點。
00:40
I'm going to talk about feasibility可行性 as well, of course課程.
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當然,我也會講可行性。
00:42
I'm going to talk about why we are so fatalistic宿命
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我會談談為何我們會認為對於衰老
00:44
about doing anything about aging老化.
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做任何努力都是徒勞的宿命論。
00:46
And then I'm going spend perhaps也許 the second第二 half of the talk
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接下來我會用演講後半段
00:48
talking about, you know, how we might威力 actually其實 be able能夠 to prove證明 that fatalism宿命論 is wrong錯誤,
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來談談如何證明這宿命主義是錯誤的,
00:53
namely亦即, by actually其實 doing something about it.
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即,我們可以通過行動來改變它。
00:55
I'm going to do that in two steps腳步.
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我會分兩步來談。
00:57
The first one I'm going to talk about is
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第一部份要講的是,
00:59
how to get from a relatively相對 modest謙虛 amount of life extension延期 --
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如何從一個較保守的壽命延長年數 ---
01:02
which哪一個 I'm going to define確定 as 30 years年份, applied應用的 to people
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我定義為30年,並針對於
01:05
who are already已經 in middle-age中年 when you start開始 --
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已步入中年才開始抗老化的人 ----
01:07
to a point which哪一個 can genuinely真正的 be called defeating擊敗 aging老化.
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讓他們達到一個真正可稱為戰勝衰老的境界。
01:10
Namely亦即, essentially實質上 an elimination消除 of the relationship關係 between之間
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本質上來說,即是徹底地消除
01:14
how old you are and how likely容易 you are to die in the next下一個 year --
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你的年齡與接下來一年內死亡機率 --
01:16
or indeed確實, to get sick生病 in the first place地點.
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或在那之前得病的機率,這兩者之間的關係。
01:18
And of course課程, the last thing I'm going to talk about
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當然,最後我會講的題目
01:20
is how to reach達到 that intermediate中間 step,
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是如何達到這個中間階段,
01:22
that point of maybe 30 years年份 life extension延期.
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即延長壽命大約三十年。
01:25
So I'm going to start開始 with why we should.
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那麼,我從為什麼應該抗衰老開始。
01:28
Now, I want to ask a question.
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現在,我想問你們一個問題。
01:30
Hands up: anyone任何人 in the audience聽眾 who is in favor偏愛 of malaria瘧疾?
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請舉手: 現場觀眾誰贊同瘧疾?
01:33
That was easy簡單. OK.
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這個簡單。好。
01:34
OK. Hands up: anyone任何人 in the audience聽眾
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好。請舉手,現場觀眾
01:36
who's誰是 not sure whether是否 malaria瘧疾 is a good thing or a bad thing?
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誰不確定瘧疾是件好事還是件壞事?
01:39
OK. So we all think malaria瘧疾 is a bad thing.
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好。那麼我們都認為瘧疾是件壞事。
01:41
That's very good news新聞, because I thought that was what the answer回答 would be.
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那太好了,因為我也想這應該是你們會回答的答案。
01:43
Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you
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現在我想向你們提出
01:45
that the main主要 reason原因 why we think that malaria瘧疾 is a bad thing
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使我們認定瘧疾是件壞事的主要原因,
01:48
is because of a characteristic特性 of malaria瘧疾 that it shares分享 with aging老化.
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是因為瘧疾和衰老共有的一個特徵。
01:52
And here is that characteristic特性.
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那就是… (問:為何我們要治癒衰老?答:因為衰老是殺人狂!)
01:55
The only real真實 difference區別 is that aging老化 kills殺死 considerably相當 more people than malaria瘧疾 does.
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唯一真正不同的地方是衰老所弒殺人數遠超於瘧疾。
02:00
Now, I like in an audience聽眾, in Britain英國 especially特別,
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那麼,我想向觀眾,尤其是英國觀眾,
02:02
to talk about the comparison對照 with foxhunting獵狐,
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講下衰老與獵殺狐狸的對比,
02:04
which哪一個 is something that was banned取締 after a long struggle鬥爭,
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獵狐在英國是經過了長期鬥爭
02:07
by the government政府 not very many許多 months個月 ago.
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才終於在近幾個月前被政府正式禁止的。
02:10
I mean, I know I'm with a sympathetic有同情心 audience聽眾 here,
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雖然我知道這裡的觀眾是有同情心的,
02:12
but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely完全 persuaded說服了 by this logic邏輯.
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但,大家都知道,有許多人對此邏輯不盡認同。
02:15
And this is actually其實 a rather good comparison對照, it seems似乎 to me.
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而就這點讓我覺得這是個不錯的比喻。
02:18
You know, a lot of people said, "Well, you know,
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有許多人表示, "那些
02:20
city boys男孩 have no business商業 telling告訴 us rural鄉村 types類型 what to do with our time.
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城裡人憑什麼對我們郊區鄉民指點怎麼用我們的時間?
02:25
It's a traditional傳統 part部分 of the way of life,
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這是生活傳統的一部份,
02:27
and we should be allowed允許 to carry攜帶 on doing it.
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我們不該被禁止繼續做這件事 (對比表:獵狐vs.人類老化)
02:29
It's ecologically生態 sound聲音; it stops停止 the population人口 explosion爆炸 of foxes狐狸."
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這對自然生態有益;這是在防止狐狸繁殖氾濫。”
02:32
But ultimately最終, the government政府 prevailed盛行 in the end結束,
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但最終政府還是佔了上風,
02:34
because the majority多數 of the British英國的 public上市,
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因為大多數的英國民眾
02:35
and certainly當然 the majority多數 of members會員 of Parliament議會,
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尤其是大多數的國會議員,
02:37
came來了 to the conclusion結論 that it was really something
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達到的共識是,這真的
02:39
that should not be tolerated容忍 in a civilized文明 society社會.
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不該為一個文明社會所容許。
02:41
And I think that human人的 aging老化 shares分享
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而我認為人類的衰老與獵狐
02:42
all of these characteristics特點 in spades黑桃.
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在所有這些共同特質上都極為契合。
02:45
What part部分 of this do people not understand理解?
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哪方面是令人無法理解的呢?
02:47
It's not just about life, of course課程 --
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當然,不僅是為了生命----
02:49
(Laughter笑聲) --
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(笑聲) (為什麼不確定? 左:有趣 右:不好玩)
02:50
it's about healthy健康 life, you know --
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這更是為了健康的生命 ---- 我們都知道
02:53
getting得到 frail脆弱 and miserable and dependent依賴的 is no fun開玩笑,
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變得悴弱,愁苦,依賴,都不好玩,
02:56
whether是否 or not dying垂死 may可能 be fun開玩笑.
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無論死亡是否好玩。
02:58
So really, this is how I would like to describe描述 it.
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講真的,這就是我想表達的。
03:00
It's a global全球 trance發呆.
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對衰老的看法是一種全球性麻木 (會很無聊;我們沒法付養老金;)
03:02
These are the sorts排序 of unbelievable難以置信的 excuses藉口
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這些就是各種滑稽的藉口 (非洲飢荒怎辦;獨裁暴君會活太久)
03:04
that people give for aging老化.
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人們用這些藉口給衰老做辦解。
03:06
And, I mean, OK, I'm not actually其實 saying
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我的意思是,好吧,我並不是說
03:08
that these excuses藉口 are completely全然 valueless無價值.
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這些藉口是完全沒有價值的。
03:10
There are some good points to be made製作 here,
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這裡的確是有幾點不錯。
03:12
things that we ought應該 to be thinking思維 about, forward前鋒 planning規劃
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譬如一些我們本該思量和預備的事,
03:15
so that nothing goes too -- well, so that we minimize最小化
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以免… 我是說,當我們解決了抗衰老問題之後,
03:17
the turbulence動亂 when we actually其實 figure數字 out how to fix固定 aging老化.
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可以讓我們把因此而造成的動盪最小化。
03:20
But these are completely全然 crazy, when you actually其實
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但這些真的很瞎掰 --- 一旦你
03:23
remember記得 your sense of proportion比例.
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記起尺長寸短的話。
03:25
You know, these are arguments參數; these are things that
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你知道的,這些是議論辯詞,這些是
03:29
would be legitimate合法 to be concerned關心 about.
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理應關心的事情。
03:31
But the question is, are they so dangerous危險 --
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但問題是,這些真有那麼危險嗎? ---
03:34
these risks風險 of doing something about aging老化 --
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這些對抗老化的風險 ---
03:36
that they outweigh超過 the downside缺點 of doing the opposite對面,
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會比不對抗老化——即對老化不聞不問帶來的
03:40
namely亦即, leaving離開 aging老化 as it is?
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缺點更嚴重嗎?
03:42
Are these so bad that they outweigh超過
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這些風險比
03:44
condemning譴責 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily不必要的 early death死亡?
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每天對十萬人判決無謂的早死更嚴重嗎?
03:50
You know, if you haven't沒有 got an argument論據 that's that strong強大,
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要知道,若是沒比這更有力的理由,
03:52
then just don't waste浪費 my time, is what I say.
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那麼就別浪費我的時間了。
03:55
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:56
Now, there is one argument論據
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好,那麼現在是有這麼一個觀點
03:57
that some people do think really is that strong強大, and here it is.
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有些人的確覺得它非常有理,那就是
03:59
People worry擔心 about overpopulation人口過剩; they say,
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"我們擔心人口氾濫," 他們說。
04:01
"Well, if we fix固定 aging老化, no one's那些 going to die to speak說話 of,
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"我們治好衰老的話,就沒有人會死了,
04:03
or at least最小 the death死亡 toll收費 is going to be much lower降低,
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死亡人數至少會大幅減少,
04:06
only from crossing路口 St. Giles賈爾斯 carelessly不經意.
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除了那些過馬路不小心的。
04:08
And therefore因此, we're not going to be able能夠 to have many許多 kids孩子,
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這樣一來,我們就不能多生小孩,
04:10
and kids孩子 are really important重要 to most people."
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而小孩對大部分人來說又很重要。”
04:12
And that's true真正.
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說的對。
04:14
And you know, a lot of people try to fudge做傻事 this question,
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要知道,很多人都想把這個問題蒙混過去,
04:17
and give answers答案 like this.
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給些這樣的答覆。
04:18
I don't agree同意 with those answers答案. I think they basically基本上 don't work.
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我不同意這些說法。我覺得這些說法基本上是不通的。
04:21
I think it's true真正, that we will face面對 a dilemma困境 in this respect尊重.
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我想,我們是得面對這方面的兩難問題。
04:24
We will have to decide決定 whether是否 to have a low birth分娩 rate,
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我們將必須決定,是要選擇生育率低,
04:28
or a high death死亡 rate.
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還是死亡率高。
04:30
A high death死亡 rate will, of course課程, arise出現 from simply只是 rejecting拒絕 these therapies治療,
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死亡率高,可以簡單地由拒絕接受這些治療來達成,
04:33
in favor偏愛 of carrying攜帶 on having a lot of kids孩子.
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要偏好繼續多生小孩的話。
04:37
And, I say that that's fine --
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我說那也可以 ----
04:39
the future未來 of humanity人性 is entitled標題 to make that choice選擇.
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未來的人類是有權做這個選擇的。
04:42
What's not fine is for us to make that choice選擇 on behalf代表 of the future未來.
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但,不應該的是由我們來代替未來人作此決定。
04:46
If we vacillate動搖, hesitate遲疑,
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我們要是舉棋不定,優柔寡斷,
04:48
and do not actually其實 develop發展 these therapies治療,
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然後不好好著手研發這些治療技術的話,
04:51
then we are condemning譴責 a whole整個 cohort隊列 of people --
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那我們即是判了一大幫人的死刑 --
04:55
who would have been young年輕 enough足夠 and healthy健康 enough足夠
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他們原可在夠年輕夠健康的時候
04:57
to benefit效益 from those therapies治療, but will not be,
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得益于接受治療,但沒機會了,
04:59
because we haven't沒有 developed發達 them as quickly很快 as we could --
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就因我們沒盡責儘速研究開發這些治療技術 ---
05:01
we'll be denying否認 those people an indefinite不定 life span跨度,
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我們等於是剝奪了那些人的無限壽命,
05:03
and I consider考慮 that that is immoral不道德.
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我認為那是不道德的。
05:05
That's my answer回答 to the overpopulation人口過剩 question.
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這就是我對於人口氾濫這個問題的答案。
05:08
Right. So the next下一個 thing is,
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好,那下一個題目是,
05:10
now why should we get a little bit more active活性 on this?
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我們為什麼得在這方面更積極呢?
05:12
And the fundamental基本的 answer回答 is that
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而我的主要答案是
05:14
the pro-aging親老化 trance發呆 is not as dumb as it looks容貌.
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麻木接受衰老並非如其表面看來那麼傻。
05:17
It's actually其實 a sensible明智 way of coping應對 with the inevitability必然性 of aging老化.
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這其實是一種合理方法,用來應付衰老的必然性。
05:21
Aging老化 is ghastly陰森, but it's inevitable必然, so, you know,
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衰老是恐怖的,但又是必然的,那,只好
05:25
we've我們已經 got to find some way to put it out of our minds頭腦,
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得找個方法來讓我們別去想它,
05:27
and it's rational合理的 to do anything that we might威力 want to do, to do that.
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而且不論用什麼方式來不想它都合理。
05:31
Like, for example, making製造 up these ridiculous荒謬 reasons原因
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就像,舉例,編出這麼些無稽的理由,
05:34
why aging老化 is actually其實 a good thing after all.
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要辯解說衰老退化最終還是件好事。
05:36
But of course課程, that only works作品 when we have both of these components組件.
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不過,那也當然是只有在這兩項因素都成立的前提下才行得通。
05:40
And as soon不久 as the inevitability必然性 bit becomes a little bit unclear不明 --
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一旦必然性方面不再那麼清楚,變得有點模糊,
05:43
and we might威力 be in range範圍 of doing something about aging老化 --
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那我們也許就在對衰老問題能有所行動了,
05:45
this becomes part部分 of the problem問題.
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這又成為問題的一部份。
05:47
This pro-aging親老化 trance發呆 is what stops停止 us from agitating攪拌 about these things.
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接受衰老為宿命的麻木認同正是阻止我們對此些事著急的原因。
05:51
And that's why we have to really talk about this a lot --
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而那也正是為什麼我們需要多提此事 ---
05:55
evangelize傳福音, I will go so far as to say, quite相當 a lot --
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像傳福音一樣,我會甚至這樣比喻 ---
05:57
in order訂購 to get people's人們 attention注意, and make people realize實現
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為了讓人關注,讓人醒悟
06:00
that they are in a trance發呆 in this regard看待.
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原來在這方面他們一直逃避於麻木中。
06:02
So that's all I'm going to say about that.
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那麼這些就是我對這方面所有要講的內容了。
06:04
I'm now going to talk about feasibility可行性.
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現在我要講可行性。
06:07
And the fundamental基本的 reason原因, I think, why we feel that aging老化 is inevitable必然
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我想基本上,我們為何感到老化是無法避免的
06:11
is summed總結 up in a definition定義 of aging老化 that I'm giving here.
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可以綜述於我下面要解說的,對老化的定義。
06:14
A very simple簡單 definition定義.
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一個非常簡單的定義。
06:15
Aging老化 is a side effect影響 of being存在 alive in the first place地點,
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老化,是從生命一開始就有的副作用。
06:18
which哪一個 is to say, metabolism代謝.
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也就是說,新陳代謝。
06:20
This is not a completely全然 tautological同義反复 statement聲明;
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這不是全然同義重覆的說詞;
06:23
it's a reasonable合理 statement聲明.
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而是合理的說法。
06:24
Aging老化 is basically基本上 a process處理 that happens發生 to inanimate老成 objects對象 like cars汽車,
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老化基本上是一個發生在沒有生命的物件如汽車上的過程,
06:28
and it also happens發生 to us,
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也在我們身上發生,
06:30
despite儘管 the fact事實 that we have a lot of clever聰明 self-repair自我修復 mechanisms機制,
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雖然我們有很多精巧的自我修復機制,
06:33
because those self-repair自我修復 mechanisms機制 are not perfect完善.
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但還是因為那些自我修復機制不完美。
06:35
So basically基本上, metabolism代謝, which哪一個 is defined定義 as
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所以簡單講,新陳代謝,即定義為
06:37
basically基本上 everything that keeps保持 us alive from one day to the next下一個,
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基本上所有維持我們日復一日活命的每件事,
06:40
has side effects效果.
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都有副作用。
06:42
Those side effects效果 accumulate積累 and eventually終於 cause原因 pathology病理.
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那些副作用經年累月累積成病變。
06:44
That's a fine definition定義. So we can put it this way:
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那是個不錯的定義。所以我們可以這樣說:
06:46
we can say that, you know, we have this chain of events事件.
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我們可以說,這是一串互連的作用。
06:48
And there are really two games遊戲 in town,
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在延緩老化這個領域,
06:50
according根據 to most people, with regard看待 to postponing推遲 aging老化.
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大多數人所知,有兩種方式。
06:53
They're what I'm calling調用 here the "gerontology老年病學 approach途徑" and the "geriatrics老年病學 approach途徑."
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在這裡我分別稱他們為:老年學方式和老人醫學方式。
06:57
The geriatrician老年病學 will intervene干預 late晚了 in the day,
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老人醫學家在時日為晚之際才做干涉介入性治療,
06:59
when pathology病理 is becoming變得 evident明顯,
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在病變情況趨於明顯時,
07:01
and the geriatrician老年病學 will try and hold保持 back the sands沙灘 of time,
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老人醫學家會試圖阻撓病魔拖延時間漏沙,
07:04
and stop the accumulation積累 of side effects效果
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並致力阻止副作用的持續累積
07:07
from causing造成 the pathology病理 quite相當 so soon不久.
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來阻止過早引發病變。
07:09
Of course課程, it's a very short-term-ist短期-IST strategy戰略; it's a losing失去 battle戰鬥,
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當然這是一種非常短期主義的策略,在打敗仗,
07:12
because the things that are causing造成 the pathology病理
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因為那些致病因素
07:15
are becoming變得 more abundant豐富 as time goes on.
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會不斷的隨時間氾濫為患。
07:17
The gerontology老年病學 approach途徑 looks容貌 much more promising有希望 on the surface表面,
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老年學方式表面上看來前景似乎樂觀許多,
07:21
because, you know, prevention預防 is better than cure治愈.
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因為,大家都知道預防勝於治療。
07:24
But unfortunately不幸 the thing is that we don't understand理解 metabolism代謝 very well.
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但很遺憾的我們對新陳代謝瞭解不多。
07:27
In fact事實, we have a pitifully可憐 poor較差的 understanding理解 of how organisms生物 work --
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甚至可以說,我們對生物體如何工作所知少得可憐 ---
07:30
even cells細胞 we're not really too good on yet然而.
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我們連細胞都還沒能算是真正的弄懂。
07:32
We've我們已經 discovered發現 things like, for example,
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我們所發現的東西,例如,
07:34
RNARNA interference干擾 only a few少數 years年份 ago,
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RNA核糖核酸干擾現象,僅僅是近幾年來的事,
07:37
and this is a really fundamental基本的 component零件 of how cells細胞 work.
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而且這是一個細胞如何運行的非常基礎的部分。
07:39
Basically基本上, gerontology老年病學 is a fine approach途徑 in the end結束,
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本質上,老年學方式還算是個不錯的途徑,
07:42
but it is not an approach途徑 whose誰的 time has come
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不過它不適用於那些時日已至的人,
07:44
when we're talking about intervention介入.
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若我們講的是介入性的醫療手法。
07:46
So then, what do we do about that?
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那麼,我們對這個要怎麼辦?
07:49
I mean, that's a fine logic邏輯, that sounds聲音 pretty漂亮 convincing使人信服,
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我是說,這邏輯不錯,聽起來是足以令人信服地,
07:51
pretty漂亮 ironclad鐵定, doesn't it?
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穩紮鐵定,是不是?
07:53
But it isn't.
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但並非也。
07:55
Before I tell you why it isn't, I'm going to go a little bit
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我在告訴你為什麼它不是之前,要首先進入
07:58
into what I'm calling調用 step two.
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我稱之為第二步驟的話題。
08:00
Just suppose假設, as I said, that we do acquire獲得 --
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假設,如我所說過的,我們真能得到 ---
08:04
let's say we do it today今天 for the sake清酒 of argument論據 --
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今天這麼做就算是為了方便討論吧 ----
08:06
the ability能力 to confer授予 30 extra額外 years年份 of healthy健康 life
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有能力將額外三十年的健康生命附加予
08:10
on people who are already已經 in middle中間 age年齡, let's say 55.
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已入中年的人,我們說55歲好了。
08:13
I'm going to call that "robust強大的 human人的 rejuvenation復興." OK.
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我將稱之為人類健康回春 。好的。
08:16
What would that actually其實 mean
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這有什麼實質上的意義呢
08:17
for how long people of various各個 ages年齡 today今天 --
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對於現今各種不同歲數的人們來說 ---
08:20
or equivalently等效, of various各個 ages年齡 at the time that these therapies治療 arrive到達 --
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或相當於,在這些療法來臨之際的各個年齡層的人們---
08:24
would actually其實 live生活?
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真正可以活多久?
08:26
In order訂購 to answer回答 that question -- you might威力 think it's simple簡單,
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為了要回答這個問題… 也許你覺得這很簡單,
08:28
but it's not simple簡單.
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但其實它不簡單。
08:29
We can't just say, "Well, if they're young年輕 enough足夠 to benefit效益 from these therapies治療,
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我們不能就說: “那麼,若他們在足夠年輕的時候從這些療法中受益,
08:32
then they'll他們會 live生活 30 years年份 longer."
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那他們就會再活多個三十年。”
08:33
That's the wrong錯誤 answer回答.
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這是錯的答案。
08:35
And the reason原因 it's the wrong錯誤 answer回答 is because of progress進展.
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答錯的原因呢,是因為技術的進步。
08:37
There are two sorts排序 of technological技術性 progress進展 really,
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科技進展可以分為兩種
08:39
for this purpose目的.
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以此話題來講。
08:40
There are fundamental基本的, major重大的 breakthroughs突破,
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有基礎級的重要突破,
08:43
and there are incremental增加的 refinements改進 of those breakthroughs突破.
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另有在那些突破基礎上逐步的精修改良。
08:47
Now, they differ不同 a great deal合同
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那麼,在對時間框架的預估上,
08:49
in terms條款 of the predictability預測 of time frames.
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這兩種科技進步區別很大。
08:52
Fundamental基本的 breakthroughs突破:
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基礎性突破:
08:53
very hard to predict預測 how long it's going to take
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非常難預測需要多久時間
08:55
to make a fundamental基本的 breakthrough突破.
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才能達成一個基礎性突破
08:56
It was a very long time ago that we decided決定 that flying飛行 would be fun開玩笑,
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我們從很久以前,就已經認定飛翔會很有趣,
08:59
and it took us until直到 1903 to actually其實 work out how to do it.
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然後我們拖到1903年才發明出實踐方法。
09:02
But after that, things were pretty漂亮 steady穩定 and pretty漂亮 uniform制服.
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但在那之後,一切就滿穩定滿按部就班的了。
09:06
I think this is a reasonable合理 sequence序列 of events事件 that happened發生
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我想在動力飛行技術發展過程中,
09:09
in the progression級數 of the technology技術 of powered動力 flight飛行.
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這個是合理的事件發生順序。
09:13
We can think, really, that each one is sort分類 of
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我們可以把這想成是,每一步都似乎是
09:17
beyond the imagination想像力 of the inventor發明者 of the previous以前 one, if you like.
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超越前項發明者的想像力
09:20
The incremental增加的 advances進步 have added添加 up to something
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這漸階式進步是在
09:24
which哪一個 is not incremental增加的 anymore.
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某樣非漸階式即突破性發展的基礎上產生的。
09:26
This is the sort分類 of thing you see after a fundamental基本的 breakthrough突破.
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那是在基礎性大突破之後才會看見的發展。
09:29
And you see it in all sorts排序 of technologies技術.
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而且你會在各種各樣的科學技術裡發現這樣的情況。
09:31
Computers電腦: you can look at a more or less parallel平行 time line,
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電腦發展的時間線和飛機差不多,
09:34
happening事件 of course課程 a bit later後來.
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當然發生時間是稍晚些。
09:35
You can look at medical care關心. I mean, hygiene衛生, vaccines疫苗, antibiotics抗生素 --
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你可以看醫療保健,如個人衛生,疫苗,抗生素 --
09:38
you know, the same相同 sort分類 of time frame.
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你看,其發展過程是同類型的時間結構。
09:40
So I think that actually其實 step two, that I called a step a moment時刻 ago,
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所以我想事實上第二步驟,我剛剛稱之為步驟的
09:44
isn't a step at all.
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根本不是個步驟。
09:45
That in fact事實, the people who are young年輕 enough足夠
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這些人,若他夠年輕還來得及
09:48
to benefit效益 from these first therapies治療
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從第一代治療技術中獲益,
09:50
that give this moderate中等 amount of life extension延期,
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得到這適量的延壽年數,
09:52
even though雖然 those people are already已經 middle-aged中年 when the therapies治療 arrive到達,
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即使那些人在治療技術來臨時已屆中年
09:56
will be at some sort分類 of cusp風口浪尖.
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他們會處於某種先鋒期優勢。
09:58
They will mostly大多 survive生存 long enough足夠 to receive接收 improved改善 treatments治療
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他們大多會活得足夠久以接受更進步的治療
10:02
that will give them a further進一步 30 or maybe 50 years年份.
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而可額外延續30或也許50年的壽命。
10:04
In other words, they will be staying ahead of the game遊戲.
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也就是說,他們會一直保持領先。
10:07
The therapies治療 will be improving提高 faster更快 than
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那些治療技術的進步會快於
10:10
the remaining其餘 imperfections缺陷 in the therapies治療 are catching up with us.
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治療技術殘留缺點追趕上我們壽命的速度。
10:14
This is a very important重要 point for me to get across橫過.
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這是我要特別強調的重點。
10:16
Because, you know, most people, when they hear
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因為,大部分人一聽到
10:18
that I predict預測 that a lot of people alive today今天 are going to live生活 to 1,000 or more,
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我預估說有很多今天活著的人將活到一千歲以上
10:23
they think that I'm saying that we're going to invent發明 therapies治療 in the next下一個 few少數 decades幾十年
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他們就以為我講的是,我們會在幾十年內發明
10:27
that are so thoroughly eliminating消除 aging老化
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能徹底消除老化現象的治療技術,
10:30
that those therapies治療 will let us live生活 to 1,000 or more.
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以使我們活到一千歲以上。
10:33
I'm not saying that at all.
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我根本不是這麼說。
10:35
I'm saying that the rate of improvement起色 of those therapies治療
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我說的是速率,光靠這些技術進步的速度
10:37
will be enough足夠.
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就夠了。
10:38
They'll他們會 never be perfect完善, but we'll be able能夠 to fix固定 the things
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它們永遠不會完美,但我們能在還沒有人活到兩百歲之前,
10:41
that 200-year-olds- 年的孩子 die of, before we have any 200-year-olds- 年的孩子.
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先解決那些導致兩百歲人的死亡原因。
10:44
And the same相同 for 300 and 400 and so on.
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依此類推,到三百,四百... 等等。
10:46
I decided決定 to give this a little name名稱,
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我給這起了個小名
10:49
which哪一個 is "longevity長壽 escape逃逸 velocity速度."
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叫做 "延壽用逃逸速度"
10:51
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:53
Well, it seems似乎 to get the point across橫過.
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反正,大概就是這個意思。
10:56
So, these trajectories軌跡 here are basically基本上 how we would expect期望 people to live生活,
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那麼,這幾曲綫基本代表我們期望人們活多久,
11:01
in terms條款 of remaining其餘 life expectancy期待,
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以剩餘壽命期望值而計,
11:03
as measured測量 by their health健康,
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照他們健康狀況來衡量,
11:05
for given特定 ages年齡 that they were at the time that these therapies治療 arrive到達.
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以這些技術問世時他們當時的年齡為準。
11:08
If you're already已經 100, or even if you're 80 --
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若你已經一百歲了,或甚至你是八十歲 ----
11:10
and an average平均 80-year-old-歲,
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那麼,一個平常的八十歲的人
11:12
we probably大概 can't do a lot for you with these therapies治療,
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用這些治療技術大概幫不了你什麼
11:14
because you're too close to death's死亡的 door
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因為你已經離死亡的大門太近了
11:16
for the really initial初始, experimental試驗 therapies治療 to be good enough足夠 for you.
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這種剛萌芽的實驗期療法對你而言效果會不夠好。
11:20
You won't慣於 be able能夠 to withstand經受 them.
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你會無法承受它們。
11:21
But if you're only 50, then there's a chance機會
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但若你只有五十歲,那就有一線希望
11:23
that you might威力 be able能夠 to pull out of the dive潛水 and, you know --
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你也許能從生命的俯衝線抽脫,然後 ---
11:26
(Laughter笑聲) --
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(笑聲)
11:27
eventually終於 get through通過 this
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終究熬過這關。
11:30
and start開始 becoming變得 biologically生物 younger更年輕 in a meaningful富有意義的 sense,
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然後開始在生理上真正地變得更加年輕,
11:33
in terms條款 of your youthfulness青春, both physical物理 and mental心理,
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在身體和心理兩方面都變得更加年輕,
11:35
and in terms條款 of your risk風險 of death死亡 from age-related年齡相關 causes原因.
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還有因年老相關的死亡風險也會降低。
11:37
And of course課程, if you're a bit younger更年輕 than that,
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若你比這還年輕一點,
11:39
then you're never really even going
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那你甚至永遠不會
11:41
to get near to being存在 fragile脆弱 enough足夠 to die of age-related年齡相關 causes原因.
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衰弱到會死於老年相關的死因。
11:44
So this is a genuine真正 conclusion結論 that I come to, that the first 150-year-old-歲 --
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所以,我得出的這個結論是真實可靠的:第一位150歲的人 ----
11:49
we don't know how old that person is today今天,
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我們不知道那個人現今是幾歲,
11:51
because we don't know how long it's going to take
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因為我們不知道要多久
11:53
to get these first-generation第一代 therapies治療.
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才會有這些第一代治療技術。
11:55
But irrespective不管 of that age年齡,
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但無關於他是幾歲
11:57
I'm claiming自稱 that the first person to live生活 to 1,000 --
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我斷言第一位活到一千歲的人 ---
12:01
subject學科 of course課程, to, you know, global全球 catastrophes災難 --
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當然這會受像世界大浩劫等影響 ---
12:04
is actually其實, probably大概, only about 10 years年份 younger更年輕 than the first 150-year-old-歲.
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是極有可能只比第一位150歲的人年輕個十歲左右。
12:08
And that's quite相當 a thought.
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這是值得好好思索的。
12:10
Alright好的, so finally最後 I'm going to spend the rest休息 of the talk,
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好,那我接下來終於要用
12:13
my last seven-and-a-half七和半 minutes分鐘, on step one;
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我最後的這七分半鐘,講第一步驟:
12:16
namely亦即, how do we actually其實 get to this moderate中等 amount of life extension延期
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就是,我們要怎麼來適度增長壽命
12:21
that will allow允許 us to get to escape逃逸 velocity速度?
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使我們可抵達逃逸速度?
12:24
And in order訂購 to do that, I need to talk about mice老鼠 a little bit.
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為此我必須講一點點白鼠。
12:28
I have a corresponding相應 milestone里程碑 to robust強大的 human人的 rejuvenation復興.
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我對人類強健回春設立了相應的里程碑。
12:31
I'm calling調用 it "robust強大的 mouse老鼠 rejuvenation復興," not very imaginatively想像力.
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我叫它老鼠強健回春,沒什麼想像力。
12:34
And this is what it is.
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那就是這樣。
12:36
I say we're going to take a long-lived長壽命 strain應變 of mouse老鼠,
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我說,我們用一隻長壽品種的老鼠,
12:38
which哪一個 basically基本上 means手段 mice老鼠 that live生活 about three years年份 on average平均.
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通常平均壽命是大約三年。
12:41
We do exactly究竟 nothing to them until直到 they're already已經 two years年份 old.
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我們完全不碰牠們,直到他們已兩歲後。
12:44
And then we do a whole整個 bunch of stuff東東 to them,
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屆時我們就對牠們做許多實驗,
12:46
and with those therapies治療, we get them to live生活,
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且經由這些治療技術讓牠們活到
12:48
on average平均, to their fifth第五 birthday生日.
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平均來說,第五歲生日時。
12:50
So, in other words, we add two years年份 --
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也就是說,我們加了兩年 ---
12:52
we treble三重 their remaining其餘 lifespan壽命,
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將牠們餘壽增至三倍
12:54
starting開始 from the point that we started開始 the therapies治療.
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從我們開始治療的時間點算起。
12:56
The question then is, what would that actually其實 mean for the time frame
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問題是,這對我之前談到關於人類的里程碑而言,
12:59
until直到 we get to the milestone里程碑 I talked about earlier for humans人類?
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在我們到達它之前,意味著什麽?
13:02
Which哪一個 we can now, as I've explained解釋,
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如我已經解釋過的,現在我們可同樣稱其為
13:04
equivalently等效 call either robust強大的 human人的 rejuvenation復興 or longevity長壽 escape逃逸 velocity速度.
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人類強健回春或延壽用逃逸速度。
13:08
Secondly其次, what does it mean for the public's公眾的 perception知覺
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第二,這會如何影響大眾觀念,就是
13:11
of how long it's going to take for us to get to those things,
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由測試白鼠時開始算起,
13:13
starting開始 from the time we get the mice老鼠?
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我們還要多久才能達到這些目標呢?
13:15
And thirdly第三, the question is, what will it do
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第三,問題是,這能夠怎樣影響
13:17
to actually其實 how much people want it?
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人們對此渴求的程度?
13:19
And it seems似乎 to me that the first question
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在我看來第一個問題
13:21
is entirely完全 a biology生物學 question,
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純粹是生物學上的問題,
13:22
and it's extremely非常 hard to answer回答.
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而且極難回答。
13:24
One has to be very speculative投機,
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要做許多不切實的理論性猜測,
13:26
and many許多 of my colleagues同事 would say that we should not do this speculation推測,
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那我很多同事會警告我們別做這種推論,
13:29
that we should simply只是 keep our counsel法律顧問 until直到 we know more.
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要我們最好是別出聲,知道得多點再說。
13:33
I say that's nonsense廢話.
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我說那是無稽之談。
13:34
I say we absolutely絕對 are irresponsible不負責任 if we stay silent無聲 on this.
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我認為對此避口不提才絕對是不負責任。
13:37
We need to give our best最好 guess猜測 as to the time frame,
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我們應盡所能做最佳猜測,提出一個理論性的時間範圍,
13:40
in order訂購 to give people a sense of proportion比例
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讓人們至少能對此大體衡量下,
13:43
so that they can assess評估 their priorities優先.
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好讓他們可以自己做評估。
13:45
So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance機會
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我說,我們有50:50的機率
13:48
of reaching到達 this RHRRHR milestone里程碑,
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從達到老鼠強健回春算起
13:50
robust強大的 human人的 rejuvenation復興, within 15 years年份 from the point
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在十五年以內,
13:53
that we get to robust強大的 mouse老鼠 rejuvenation復興.
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達到這個RHR (人類強健回春) 的里程碑。
13:55
15 years年份 from the robust強大的 mouse老鼠.
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在那隻健全不朽老鼠成功後十五年即可。
13:58
The public's公眾的 perception知覺 will probably大概 be somewhat有些 better than that.
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大眾觀點可能比這還要樂觀一些。
14:01
The public上市 tends趨向 to underestimate低估 how difficult scientific科學 things are.
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民眾通常傾向于低估科學研究的艱難程度。
14:03
So they'll他們會 probably大概 think it's five years年份 away.
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所以他們可能會想成是五年後。
14:05
They'll他們會 be wrong錯誤, but that actually其實 won't慣於 matter too much.
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雖然他們會錯,但是那其實不太重要。
14:07
And finally最後, of course課程, I think it's fair公平 to say
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當然,最後我想可以這麼說,
14:10
that a large part部分 of the reason原因 why the public上市 is so ambivalent矛盾 about aging老化 now
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導致目前民眾們對於衰老意見矛盾的一大原因
14:14
is the global全球 trance發呆 I spoke about earlier, the coping應對 strategy戰略.
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是我先前提到的對衰老的全球性麻木狀態,那種應付策略。
14:16
That will be history歷史 at this point,
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屆時將成為歷史,
14:18
because it will no longer be possible可能 to believe that aging老化 is inevitable必然 in humans人類,
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因為人們不再可能繼續相信人類的老化是必然的,
14:21
since以來 it's been postponed延期 so very effectively有效 in mice老鼠.
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因為屆時在白鼠上會已取得非常有效地延遲作用。
14:24
So we're likely容易 to end結束 up with a very strong強大 change更改 in people's人們 attitudes態度,
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這樣一來民眾的觀點應該會有極大的轉變,
14:28
and of course課程 that has enormous巨大 implications啟示.
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這當然有極重要的含意。
14:31
So in order訂購 to tell you now how we're going to get these mice老鼠,
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為了說明我們要如何在這些白鼠上實驗,
14:34
I'm going to add a little bit to my description描述 of aging老化.
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我對衰退老化現象加了一個形容用詞。
14:36
I'm going to use this word "damage損傷"
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我要使用 "損害" 這個詞
14:38
to denote表示 these intermediate中間 things that are caused造成 by metabolism代謝
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來代表新陳代謝所引起的這些過渡性的東西,
14:42
and that eventually終於 cause原因 pathology病理.
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其最終引起病變。
14:44
Because the critical危急 thing about this
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因為這個關鍵的地方是
14:46
is that even though雖然 the damage損傷 only eventually終於 causes原因 pathology病理,
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就算這些損害只是最終才造成病變,
14:48
the damage損傷 itself本身 is caused造成 ongoing-ly正在進行-LY throughout始終 life, starting開始 before we're born天生.
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這個損害本身是持續性地發生,在我們出生前就已開始。
14:53
But it is not part部分 of metabolism代謝 itself本身.
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但它並不是新陳代謝過程的一部份。
14:56
And this turns out to be useful有用.
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那麼,這點變得很有用。
14:57
Because we can re-draw重新抽籤 our original原版的 diagram this way.
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因為這樣一來我們就可以將原來的機理重新設計。
15:00
We can say that, fundamentally從根本上, the difference區別 between之間 gerontology老年病學 and geriatrics老年病學
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可以說,基本上,老年學和老年醫學的差別
15:03
is that gerontology老年病學 tries嘗試 to inhibit抑制 the rate
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是老年學試圖抑制
15:05
at which哪一個 metabolism代謝 lays樂事 down this damage損傷.
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新陳代謝造成損害的速度。
15:07
And I'm going to explain說明 exactly究竟 what damage損傷 is
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我稍後會清楚說明 "損害"
15:09
in concrete具體 biological生物 terms條款 in a moment時刻.
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在具體生物學來講到底是什麼。
15:12
And geriatricians老年病學 try to hold保持 back the sands沙灘 of time
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那麼,老人醫學家試圖通過阻止損害轉成病變
15:14
by stopping停止 the damage損傷 converting轉換 into pathology病理.
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來抵抗時間的漏沙。
15:16
And the reason原因 it's a losing失去 battle戰鬥
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這將會失敗的原因
15:18
is because the damage損傷 is continuing繼續 to accumulate積累.
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是因為損害持續累積增加。
15:20
So there's a third第三 approach途徑, if we look at it this way.
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那還另有第三種途徑,我們來這樣看。
15:23
We can call it the "engineering工程 approach途徑,"
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我們可以稱之為工程途徑,
15:25
and I claim要求 that the engineering工程 approach途徑 is within range範圍.
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我先聲明這工程途徑是在可實現範圍之內的。
15:28
The engineering工程 approach途徑 does not intervene干預 in any processes流程.
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工程途徑不介入任何過程中。
15:31
It does not intervene干預 in this process處理 or this one.
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它不介入這個過程,或這個
15:33
And that's good because it means手段 that it's not a losing失去 battle戰鬥,
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而那也不錯,因為這樣就表示沒在打敗仗,
15:36
and it's something that we are within range範圍 of being存在 able能夠 to do,
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且它是在我們所能做到的範圍之內,
15:39
because it doesn't involve涉及 improving提高 on evolution演化.
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因為它不牽涉對生物進化過程作出改進。
15:42
The engineering工程 approach途徑 simply只是 says,
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工程途徑就是很簡單地說,
15:44
"Let's go and periodically定期 repair修理 all of these various各個 types類型 of damage損傷 --
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“我們來定期的修補這些不同類型的損害 ---
15:48
not necessarily一定 repair修理 them completely全然, but repair修理 them quite相當 a lot,
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並不一定全要修到好,但修補了算滿多,
15:52
so that we keep the level水平 of damage損傷 down below下面 the threshold
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讓我們將損害的程度維持在臨界值以下,
15:55
that must必須 exist存在, that causes原因 it to be pathogenic."
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這個臨界值是必然存在的,即能剛好引起病變的損害。“
15:58
We know that this threshold exists存在,
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我們知道這個臨界值是存在的,
16:00
because we don't get age-related年齡相關 diseases疾病 until直到 we're in middle中間 age年齡,
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因為我們在未到中年以前,不會得與年老相關的疾病,
16:03
even though雖然 the damage損傷 has been accumulating積累 since以來 before we were born天生.
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就算是這些損害從我們在胎中就已經開始累積。
16:06
Why do I say that we're in range範圍? Well, this is basically基本上 it.
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我為什麼說我們在可實現範圍之內呢? 這個…基本上就是這樣。
16:10
The point about this slide滑動 is actually其實 the bottom底部.
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這張幻燈片的要點其實是下面這個。
16:13
If we try to say which哪一個 bits of metabolism代謝 are important重要 for aging老化,
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我們若試圖分辨新陳代謝的哪些是對老化有影響的,
16:16
we will be here all night, because basically基本上 all of metabolism代謝
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那會要花整個晚上,因為基本上整個新陳代謝
16:19
is important重要 for aging老化 in one way or another另一個.
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都對衰老現象起這樣或那樣的作用。
16:21
This list名單 is just for illustration插圖; it is incomplete殘缺.
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這個列單僅是用來做個展示,它還不完整。
16:24
The list名單 on the right is also incomplete殘缺.
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右邊的這列單也還不完整。
16:26
It's a list名單 of types類型 of pathology病理 that are age-related年齡相關,
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這個列單列出幾種與年老相關的疾病,
16:29
and it's just an incomplete殘缺 list名單.
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而且它不是完整的。
16:31
But I would like to claim要求 to you that this list名單 in the middle中間 is actually其實 complete完成 --
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但我要指出,這個中間的列單確是完整的,
16:34
this is the list名單 of types類型 of thing that qualify修飾 as damage損傷,
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它列出那些可以算作是損害的種類的東西,
16:37
side effects效果 of metabolism代謝 that cause原因 pathology病理 in the end結束,
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即新陳代謝的副作用,其最終將導致病變,
16:40
or that might威力 cause原因 pathology病理.
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或可能導致病變。
16:42
And there are only seven of them.
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一共只有七個。
16:45
They're categories類別 of things, of course課程, but there's only seven of them.
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當然,它們是按類別分的,但是僅有七個而已。
16:48
Cell細胞 loss失利, mutations突變 in chromosomes染色體, mutations突變 in the mitochondria線粒體 and so on.
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細胞損失、染色體突變、線粒體內突變等等。
16:53
First of all, I'd like to give you an argument論據 for why that list名單 is complete完成.
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首先呢,我要告訴你們為何這列清單是完整的理由。
16:58
Of course課程 one can make a biological生物 argument論據.
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當然我們可以從生物學角度來討論。
17:00
One can say, "OK, what are we made製作 of?"
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我們可以問,好,那我們是什麼組成的?
17:02
We're made製作 of cells細胞 and stuff東東 between之間 cells細胞.
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我們是細胞和細胞之間的東西組成的。
17:04
What can damage損傷 accumulate積累 in?
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損害可以在什麼地方累積?
17:07
The answer回答 is: long-lived長壽命 molecules分子,
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答案是,壽命久的分子,
17:09
because if a short-lived短命 molecule分子 undergoes經歷 damage損傷, but then the molecule分子 is destroyed銷毀 --
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因為若要是一個短壽的分子受到損害,但隨後這個分子很快就消亡了 ---
17:12
like by a protein蛋白 being存在 destroyed銷毀 by proteolysis蛋白水解 -- then the damage損傷 is gone走了, too.
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就像一個蛋白質受到水解作用而分解 --- 那麼這個損害也沒了。
17:16
It's got to be long-lived長壽命 molecules分子.
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這麼來就一定是長壽分子。
17:18
So, these seven things were all under discussion討論 in gerontology老年病學 a long time ago
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其實,這七項很久前都曾在老年學中討論過,
17:21
and that is pretty漂亮 good news新聞, because it means手段 that,
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這是個好消息,因為這表示,
17:25
you know, we've我們已經 come a long way in biology生物學 in these 20 years年份,
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你想,我們這二十年來在生物學上進步了很多,
17:27
so the fact事實 that we haven't沒有 extended擴展 this list名單
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而我們並未在這清單增加項目,
17:29
is a pretty漂亮 good indication跡象 that there's no extension延期 to be doneDONE.
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這一事實是個很好的跡象,意味著沒有需要增加的項目了。
17:33
However然而, it's better than that; we actually其實 know how to fix固定 them all,
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不過,更好的消息是,我們甚至知道,理論上,在白鼠身上怎麼修復
17:35
in mice老鼠, in principle原理 -- and what I mean by in principle原理 is,
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所有這些項目 --- 而我所說的理論上的意思是,
17:38
we probably大概 can actually其實 implement實行 these fixes修復 within a decade.
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我們可能在十年內能夠實踐這些補修措施。
17:41
Some of them are partially部分 implemented實施 already已經, the ones那些 at the top最佳.
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這其中有些已經部分實施了,上面這些
17:45
I haven't沒有 got time to go through通過 them at all, but
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我不夠時間每項講完,但
17:48
my conclusion結論 is that, if we can actually其實 get suitable適當 funding資金 for this,
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我的結論是,如果我們真的可以為此得著適當的資金,
17:52
then we can probably大概 develop發展 robust強大的 mouse老鼠 rejuvenation復興 in only 10 years年份,
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那我們很可能在僅僅十年內就研發出全民大眾強健回春,
17:56
but we do need to get serious嚴重 about it.
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但我們是需要對此事認真了。
17:59
We do need to really start開始 trying.
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我們是需要真的開始著手嘗試。
18:01
So of course課程, there are some biologists生物學家 in the audience聽眾,
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當然,觀眾之間有一些生物學家
18:04
and I want to give some answers答案 to some of the questions問題 that you may可能 have.
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讓我要回答一些你們可能會有的問題。
18:07
You may可能 have been dissatisfied不滿意 with this talk,
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你也許對這演說不滿意,
18:09
but fundamentally從根本上 you have to go and read this stuff東東.
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但基本上這些是需要你去研讀的。
18:11
I've published發表 a great deal合同 on this;
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我在這方面有發表很多的文刊;
18:13
I cite引用 the experimental試驗 work on which哪一個 my optimism樂觀 is based基於,
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我舉引出那些實驗研究為我樂觀的依據基礎,
18:16
and there's quite相當 a lot of detail詳情 there.
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那裡面有滿多細節的。
18:18
The detail詳情 is what makes品牌 me confident信心
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這些細節正是讓我有信心做出
18:20
of my rather aggressive侵略性 time frames that I'm predicting預測 here.
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我這些算是滿激進的時間範圍預言。
18:22
So if you think that I'm wrong錯誤,
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所以要是你認為我錯了,
18:24
you'd better damn該死的 well go and find out why you think I'm wrong錯誤.
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你最好好好找出為什麼你認為我是錯的。
18:28
And of course課程 the main主要 thing is that you shouldn't不能 trust相信 people
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當然主要是你不應相信那些
18:31
who call themselves他們自己 gerontologists老年醫學專家 because,
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稱自己作老年學家的人因為
18:33
as with any radical激進 departure離開 from previous以前 thinking思維 within a particular特定 field領域,
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猶如在任何一個領域中徹底地脫離舊有思想的情況一樣,
18:37
you know, you expect期望 people in the mainstream主流 to be a bit resistant
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你自然預期主流學派的那些人會有點排斥,
18:41
and not really to take it seriously認真地.
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而並不把它當回事。
18:43
So, you know, you've got to actually其實 do your homework家庭作業,
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那麼,其實,你是必須得做該做的功課,
18:45
in order訂購 to understand理解 whether是否 this is true真正.
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才能瞭解這個是不是真的。
18:46
And we'll just end結束 with a few少數 things.
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再下來我們即將以幾點做完結。
18:48
One thing is, you know, you'll你會 be hearing聽力 from a guy in the next下一個 session會議
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其中一點是,你下場會聽的是,一個之前曾聲稱
18:51
who said some time ago that he could sequence序列 the human人的 genome基因組 in half no time,
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自己可以排列出人類基因組合的傢伙,
18:55
and everyone大家 said, "Well, it's obviously明顯 impossible不可能."
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那時每個人都說,“那很明顯的是不可能的呀。”
18:57
And you know what happened發生.
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你知道接下來發生了什麼。
18:58
So, you know, this does happen發生.
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所以這是會發生的。
19:02
We have various各個 strategies策略 -- there's the Methuselah瑪土撒拉 Mouse老鼠 Prize,
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我們有不同的策略 --- 有瑪士撒拉鼠標獎
19:04
which哪一個 is basically基本上 an incentive激勵 to innovate創新,
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就是基本上一個給創新發展的獎勵,
19:07
and to do what you think is going to work,
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做你認為可行的項目,
19:10
and you get money for it if you win贏得.
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若成功的話,你就會得獎金。
19:13
There's a proposal提案 to actually其實 put together一起 an institute研究所.
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還有個提案是要正式的成立一間研究所。
19:16
This is what's going to take a bit of money.
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這才是要花不少錢的地方。
19:18
But, I mean, look -- how long does it take to spend that on the war戰爭 in Iraq伊拉克?
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但說真的 --- 同樣的錢花在伊拉克戰爭上夠用幾天?
19:21
Not very long. OK.
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沒幾天。好。
19:22
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
19:23
It's got to be philanthropic慈善, because profits利潤 distract轉移 biotech生物技術,
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那這必須是慈善性地,因為追求利潤會干擾生物科技的發展,
19:26
but it's basically基本上 got a 90 percent百分 chance機會, I think, of succeeding下一 in this.
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但我想,在這方面成功的機率,大致上有90%。
19:30
And I think we know how to do it. And I'll stop there.
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還有,我認為我們知道如何做到。那麼,我就在這裡結束。
19:33
Thank you.
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謝謝你們。
19:34
(Applause掌聲)
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(鼓掌)
19:39
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: OK. I don't know if there's going to be any questions問題
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克立斯‧安德生:好,我不曉得會不會有任何問題
19:42
but I thought I would give people the chance機會.
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但我想應該給大家一個機會發問
19:44
Audience聽眾: Since以來 you've been talking about aging老化 and trying to defeat打敗 it,
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觀眾:既然你談到衰老還有嘗試擊敗它
19:48
why is it that you make yourself你自己 appear出現 like an old man?
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為什麼你把自己弄成老頭子的模樣?
19:52
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
19:56
AGAG: Because I am an old man. I am actually其實 158.
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AG:因為我是個老頭。我實際上已經158歲了
19:59
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
20:00
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
20:03
Audience聽眾: Species種類 on this planet行星 have evolved進化 with immune免疫的 systems系統
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觀眾:這顆行星上的生物的免疫系統,在他們進化過程中,
20:07
to fight鬥爭 off all the diseases疾病 so that individuals個人 live生活 long enough足夠 to procreate生育.
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幫助他們抵抗所有疾病,使個體能活得足夠久,以便繁衍後代。
20:11
However然而, as far as I know, all the species種類 have evolved進化 to actually其實 die,
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不過,據我所知,所有的生物種類都是以死亡為目地衍變進化,
20:16
so when cells細胞 divide劃分, the telomerase端粒酶 get shorter, and eventually終於 species種類 die.
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當細胞分裂時,端粒酶會縮短,最終生物滅亡。
20:21
So, why does -- evolution演化 has -- seems似乎 to have selected against反對 immortality不朽,
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那麼,為何自然進化看來是選擇反對永生不朽呢?
20:26
when it is so advantageous有利, or is evolution演化 just incomplete殘缺?
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既然那麼有利的話。還是自然進化還未完善?
20:30
AGAG: Brilliant輝煌. Thank you for asking a question
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AG: 太棒了。謝謝你提問的這個問題,
20:32
that I can answer回答 with an uncontroversial沒有爭議 answer回答.
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我可以用一個無爭議性的答案來回覆。
20:34
I'm going to tell you the genuine真正 mainstream主流 answer回答 to your question,
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我對你的問題有個正統的主流答案,
20:37
which哪一個 I happen發生 to agree同意 with,
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恰是與我意見相同的。
20:39
which哪一個 is that, no, aging老化 is not a product產品 of selection選擇, evolution演化;
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那就是,不,老化不是自然選擇的產物;
20:42
[aging老化] is simply只是 a product產品 of evolutionary發展的 neglect忽略.
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進化簡單說是一個進化時疏忽的產物。
20:45
In other words, we have aging老化 because it's hard work not to have aging老化;
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也就是說,我們會有老化是因為不老是件困難的事;
20:50
you need more genetic遺傳 pathways途徑, more sophistication詭辯 in your genes基因
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你需要更多遺傳途徑,更精密的基因,
20:52
in order訂購 to age年齡 more slowly慢慢地,
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才能老化得慢些,
20:54
and that carries攜帶 on being存在 true真正 the longer you push it out.
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而你想活得越久,上述的條件要求就越高。
20:57
So, to the extent程度 that evolution演化 doesn't matter,
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在某種程度上可以這麼說,進化不介意,
21:02
doesn't care關心 whether是否 genes基因 are passed通過 on by individuals個人,
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也不管基因通過什麽方式被個體傳遞下去,
21:04
living活的 a long time or by procreation生殖,
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不管是通過長壽的方式還是生殖的方式,
21:07
there's a certain某些 amount of modulation調製 of that,
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進化在一定程度上對此有所調節,
21:09
which哪一個 is why different不同 species種類 have different不同 lifespans壽命,
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這也是為什麼不同生物種類有不同的壽命,
21:12
but that's why there are no immortal不朽 species種類.
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但上述這些就是沒有長生不死的生物種類的緣故。
21:15
CACA: The genes基因 don't care關心 but we do?
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CA:基因不管,但我們管?
21:17
AGAG: That's right.
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AG: 是的。
21:19
Audience聽眾: Hello你好. I read somewhere某處 that in the last 20 years年份,
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觀眾:你好,我在某處讀到在過去20年
21:24
the average平均 lifespan壽命 of basically基本上 anyone任何人 on the planet行星 has grown長大的 by 10 years年份.
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在地球上基本上任何人的平均壽命都已經增加10年
21:29
If I project項目 that, that would make me think
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若我以這個做比例,那我會想說
21:32
that I would live生活 until直到 120 if I don't crash緊急 on my motorbike摩托車.
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如果我騎車摩托車不撞車的話,則我可以活到120歲。
21:37
That means手段 that I'm one of your subjects主題 to become成為 a 1,000-year-old-歲?
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那是不是意味著我成為你千歲人的研究對象之一嘍?
21:42
AGAG: If you lose失去 a bit of weight重量.
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AG:要是你減一點體重的話。
21:44
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
21:47
Your numbers數字 are a bit out.
483
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你的數字有點過時了。
21:50
The standard標準 numbers數字 are that lifespans壽命
484
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標準數據是,每十年
21:53
have been growing生長 at between之間 one and two years年份 per decade.
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人的壽命延長一到兩年。
21:56
So, it's not quite相當 as good as you might威力 think, you might威力 hope希望.
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所以,沒有你想得那麼好,也許你會這麼期望。
22:00
But I intend打算 to move移動 it up to one year per year as soon不久 as possible可能.
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但我的意願是,要儘快將這個數據每年增加一年。
22:03
Audience聽眾: I was told that many許多 of the brain cells細胞 we have as adults成年人
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觀眾:有人告訴我說,我們成年人的許多腦細胞
22:06
are actually其實 in the human人的 embryo,
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早在胚胎期就存在了,
22:08
and that the brain cells細胞 last 80 years年份 or so.
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而這些腦細胞能維持80年左右。
22:10
If that is indeed確實 true真正,
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若這是真的話,
22:12
biologically生物 are there implications啟示 in the world世界 of rejuvenation復興?
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從生物學的角度講,會否對新生抗老領域造成影響?
22:15
If there are cells細胞 in my body身體 that live生活 all 80 years年份,
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是否在我身體內也有細胞會活整整80年,
22:18
as opposed反對 to a typical典型, you know, couple一對 of months個月?
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而非通常情況下,只活幾個月?
22:20
AGAG: There are technical技術 implications啟示 certainly當然.
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AG: 那是確實有技術上的影響。
22:22
Basically基本上 what we need to do is replace更換 cells細胞
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基本上我們需要做的是在大腦的少數部位
22:26
in those few少數 areas of the brain that lose失去 cells細胞 at a respectable可敬 rate,
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將一些消亡速度較快的細胞換成新的,
22:29
especially特別 neurons神經元, but we don't want to replace更換 them
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尤其是神經元細胞,但我們不想讓更換速度
22:32
any faster更快 than that -- or not much faster更快 anyway無論如何,
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超過消亡速度--- 或至少不能超過太快,
22:34
because replacing更換 them too fast快速 would degrade降級 cognitive認知 function功能.
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因為換新的速度太快會降低認知功能。
22:38
What I said about there being存在 no non-aging不老化 species種類 earlier on
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我之前說到有關沒有不老化的生物種類,
22:41
was a little bit of an oversimplification簡單化.
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這個說法有點太簡單化了。
22:43
There are species種類 that have no aging老化 -- Hydra水潤 for example --
503
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其實是有生物是不會老化的 --- 例如水螅
22:47
but they do it by not having a nervous緊張 system系統 --
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但它們做到這點是因為它們沒有神經系統,
22:49
and not having any tissues組織 in fact事實 that rely依靠 for their function功能
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並且沒有任何需要仰賴
22:51
on very long-lived長壽命 cells細胞.
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長壽細胞才能夠運作的生物組織。
Translated by Rosa Lin
Reviewed by Yujian Li

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Aubrey de Grey - Crusader against aging
Aubrey de Grey, British researcher on aging, claims he has drawn a roadmap to defeat biological aging. He provocatively proposes that the first human beings who will live to 1,000 years old have already been born.

Why you should listen

A true maverick, Aubrey de Grey challenges the most basic assumption underlying the human condition -- that aging is inevitable. He argues instead that aging is a disease -- one that can be cured if it's approached as "an engineering problem." His plan calls for identifying all the components that cause human tissue to age, and designing remedies for each of them — forestalling disease and eventually pushing back death. He calls the approach Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS).

With his astonishingly long beard, wiry frame and penchant for bold and cutting proclamations, de Grey is a magnet for controversy. A computer scientist, self-taught biogerontologist and researcher, he has co-authored journal articles with some of the most respected scientists in the field.

But the scientific community doesn't know what to make of him. In July 2005, the MIT Technology Review challenged scientists to disprove de Grey's claims, offering a $20,000 prize (half the prize money was put up by de Grey's Methuselah Foundation) to any molecular biologist who could demonstrate that "SENS is so wrong that it is unworthy of learned debate." The challenge remains open; the judging panel includes TEDsters Craig Venter and Nathan Myhrvold. It seems that "SENS exists in a middle ground of yet-to-be-tested ideas that some people may find intriguing but which others are free to doubt," MIT's judges wrote. And while they "don't compel the assent of many knowledgeable scientists," they're also "not demonstrably wrong."

More profile about the speaker
Aubrey de Grey | Speaker | TED.com