TED@BCG San Francisco
Marco Annunziata: Welcome to the age of the industrial internet
Marko Anuncijata (Marco Annunziata): Dobro došli u doba industrijskog interneta
Filmed:
Readability: 5.3
1,509,709 views
Svi govore o "Internetu objekata" (Internet of Things), ali šta to tačno znači za našu budućnost? U ovom promišljenom govoru, ekonomista Marko Anunciata posmatra kako tehnologija preobražava industrijski sektor, stvarajući mašine koje mogu da vide, osećaju , shvataju i reaguju – pa se njima može upravljati daleko efikasnije. Pomislite: delovi aviona koji šalju upozorenja kada im je potreban servis ili vetrenjače koje komuniciraju jedna sa drugom da bi proizvele više struje. To je budućnost sa uzbudljivim posledicama za sve nas.
Marco Annunziata - Economist
The Chief Economist at General Electric, Marco Annunziata is a financial virtuoso with a passion for technology. Full bio
The Chief Economist at General Electric, Marco Annunziata is a financial virtuoso with a passion for technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Einstein said that
0
1057
1440
Ajnštajn je rekao:
00:14
"I never think about the future —
it comes soon enough."
it comes soon enough."
1
2497
3457
"Nikada ne razmišljam o budućnosti -
dovoljno brzo stiže."
dovoljno brzo stiže."
00:17
And he was right, of course.
2
5954
1701
Naravno, bio je u pravu.
00:19
So today, I'm here to ask you to think of
3
7655
2544
Danas sam tu
da vas zamolim da razmislite
da vas zamolim da razmislite
00:22
how the future is happening now.
4
10199
2860
kako se budućnost dešava sada.
00:25
Over the past 200 years, the world has experienced
5
13059
2763
Tokom proteklih 200 godina,
svet je iskusio
svet je iskusio
00:27
two major waves of innovation.
6
15822
1930
dva glavna talasa inovacija.
00:29
First, the Industrial Revolution
7
17752
2229
Prvo nam je industrijska revolucija
00:31
brought us machines and factories, railways,
8
19981
2521
donela mašine i fabrike, pruge,
00:34
electricity, air travel,
9
22502
2330
struju, putovanja avionom
00:36
and our lives have never been the same.
10
24832
2320
i naši životi nikada više nisu bili isti.
00:39
Then the Internet revolution
11
27152
2426
Zatim nam je internet revolucija
00:41
brought us computing power, data networks,
12
29578
3233
donela kompjutersku moć,
mreže podataka,
mreže podataka,
00:44
unprecedented access
13
32811
2335
pristup bez presedana
00:47
to information and communication,
14
35146
2353
informacijama i komunikaciji
00:49
and our lives have never been the same.
15
37499
3275
i naši životi su se zauvek promenili.
00:52
Now we are experiencing
16
40774
1613
Sada se suočavamo
00:54
another metamorphic change:
17
42387
1764
sa drugom metamorfičnom promenom:
00:56
the industrial Internet.
18
44151
2187
sa industrijskim internetom.
00:58
It brings together intelligent machines,
19
46338
2975
On spaja inteligentne mašine,
01:01
advanced analytics,
20
49313
1540
naprednu analitiku
01:02
and the creativity of people at work.
21
50853
2366
i kreativnost ljudi na poslu.
01:05
It's the marriage of minds and machines.
22
53219
3200
To je brak umova i mašina.
01:08
And our lives will never be the same.
23
56419
2556
I naši životi nikada više neće biti isti.
01:10
In my current role, I see up close
24
58975
2993
U svojoj trenutnoj ulozi, vidim izbliza
01:13
how technology is beginning to transform
25
61968
2833
kako tehnologija počinje da preobražava
01:16
industrial sectors that play a huge role
26
64801
2531
industrijske sektore
od ogromnog značaja
od ogromnog značaja
01:19
in our economy and in our lives:
27
67332
2393
za našu privredu i živote:
01:21
energy, aviation, transportation, health care.
28
69725
4687
energiju, avijaciju, transport,
zdravstvenu zaštitu.
zdravstvenu zaštitu.
01:26
For an economist, this is highly unusual,
29
74412
2291
Za ekonomiste je to vrlo neobično
01:28
and it's extremely exciting,
30
76703
1539
i izuzetno uzbudljivo,
01:30
because this is a transformation
31
78242
1889
jer je ovaj preobražaj
01:32
as powerful as the Industrial Revolution and more,
32
80131
4022
snažan kao industrijska revolucija i više,
01:36
and before the Industrial Revolution,
33
84153
1459
a pre industrijske revolucije
01:37
there was no economic growth to speak of.
34
85612
2950
se nije govorilo o privrednom rastu.
01:40
So what is this industrial Internet?
35
88562
3355
Šta je taj industrijski internet?
01:43
Industrial machines are being equipped
36
91917
1863
Industrijske mašine su opremljene
01:45
with a growing number of electronic sensors
37
93780
2260
sve većim brojem elektronskih senzora
01:48
that allow them to see, hear, feel
38
96040
3449
koji će im omogućiti da vide,
čuju, osećaju
čuju, osećaju
01:51
a lot more than ever before,
39
99489
1706
mnogo više nego ikad pre,
01:53
generating prodigious amounts of data.
40
101195
3071
stvarajući iscrpne količine podataka.
01:56
Increasingly sophisticated analytics
41
104266
1967
Sve sofisticiranije raščlanjavanje,
01:58
then sift through the data,
42
106233
1841
zatim ispitivanje svih podataka,
02:00
providing insights that allow us
43
108074
2756
daje uvid koji nam omogućava
02:02
to operate the machines in entirely new ways,
44
110830
3034
da upravljamo mašinama
na potpuno nove načine,
na potpuno nove načine,
02:05
a lot more efficiently.
45
113864
1906
mnogo efikasnije.
02:07
And not just individual machines,
46
115770
1989
I to ne samo pojedine mašine,
02:09
but fleets of locomotives, airplanes,
47
117759
2785
već flote lokomotiva, aviona,
02:12
entire systems like power grids, hospitals.
48
120544
3172
celokupnih sistema kao što su
energetske mreže, bolnice.
energetske mreže, bolnice.
02:15
It is asset optimization and system optimization.
49
123716
4226
To je optimizacija imovine
i optimizacija sistema.
i optimizacija sistema.
02:19
Of course, electronic sensors
50
127942
2010
Naravno, elektronski senzori
02:21
have been around for some time,
51
129952
1705
su tu već neko vreme,
02:23
but something has changed:
52
131657
1912
ali nešto se promenilo:
02:25
a sharp decline in the cost of sensors
53
133569
2851
oštar pad cene senzora
02:28
and, thanks to advances in cloud computing,
54
136420
2477
i zahvaljujući napretku
računarstva u oblaku
računarstva u oblaku
02:30
a rapid decrease in the cost of storing
55
138897
3016
rapidno su se smanjili
troškovi skladištenja
troškovi skladištenja
02:33
and processing data.
56
141913
2367
i obrade podataka.
02:36
So we are moving to a world
57
144280
1710
Dakle, selimo se u svet
02:37
where the machines we work with
58
145990
1793
u kome su mašine sa kojim radimo
02:39
are not just intelligent; they are brilliant.
59
147783
4241
ne samo inteligentne, već brilijantne.
02:44
They are self-aware, they are predictive,
60
152024
2758
One su samosvesne, predskazujuće,
02:46
reactive and social.
61
154782
3359
reaktivne i društvene.
02:50
It's jet engines, locomotives, gas turbines,
62
158141
3958
To su mlazni motori,
lokomotive, gasne turbine,
lokomotive, gasne turbine,
02:54
medical devices, communicating seamlessly
63
162099
2781
medicinski uređaji,
koji s lakoćom komuniciraju
koji s lakoćom komuniciraju
02:56
with each other and with us.
64
164880
2325
jedni s drugima i sa nama.
02:59
It's a world where information itself
65
167205
2004
U tom svetu sama informacija
03:01
becomes intelligent and comes to us
66
169209
2187
postaje inteligentna i dolazi nam
03:03
automatically when we need it
67
171396
1929
automatski kad nam je potrebna
03:05
without having to look for it.
68
173325
3198
bez potrebe da je tražimo.
03:08
We are beginning to deploy
69
176523
1527
Počinjemo da primenjujemo
03:10
throughout the industrial system
70
178050
2455
širom industrijskog sistema
03:12
embedded virtualization,
71
180505
2045
ugrađenu virtualizaciju,
03:14
multi-core processor technology,
72
182550
2202
višejezgarne procesore,
03:16
advanced cloud-based communications,
73
184752
3440
napredne komunikacije iz oblaka,
03:20
a new software-defined machine infrastructure
74
188192
2742
novu, softverski definisanu
mašinsku infrastrukturu
mašinsku infrastrukturu
03:22
which allows machine functionality
75
190934
2744
koja omogućava da mašinska funkcionalnost
03:25
to become virtualized in software,
76
193678
2574
postane virtualizirana u softveru,
03:28
decoupling machine software from hardware,
77
196252
3162
razdvajanjem mašinskog softvera
od hardvera
od hardvera
03:31
and allowing us to remotely and automatically
78
199414
3607
i dopušta nam da daljinski i automatski
03:35
monitor, manage and upgrade industrial assets.
79
203021
5324
pratimo, upravljamo i nadograđujemo
industrijska postrojenja.
industrijska postrojenja.
03:40
Why does any of this matter at all?
80
208345
3134
Zašto bi nas se bilo šta od toga
uopšte ticalo?
uopšte ticalo?
03:43
Well first of all, it's already allowing us
81
211479
2471
Pa, pre svega, to nam već dopušta
03:45
to shift towards preventive,
82
213950
2201
pomak prema preventivnom,
03:48
condition-based maintenance,
83
216151
1878
održavanju po potrebi,
03:50
which means fixing machines
84
218029
1962
što znači popravljanje mašina
03:51
just before they break,
85
219991
2288
neposredno pre nego što se pokvare,
03:54
without wasting time
86
222279
2016
bez gubljenja vremena
03:56
servicing them on a fixed schedule.
87
224295
2328
za servisiranje prema utvrđenom rasporedu.
03:58
And this, in turn, is pushing us towards
88
226623
3637
A to nas dalje vodi prema
04:02
zero unplanned downtime,
89
230260
1855
nuli neplaniranih ispada,
04:04
which means there will be no more power outages,
90
232115
2865
što znači da neće biti
nijednog nestanka struje,
nijednog nestanka struje,
04:06
no more flight delays.
91
234980
2040
niti zakasnelog leta.
04:09
So let me give you a few examples
92
237020
1644
Dopustite mi
da vam dam nekoliko primera
da vam dam nekoliko primera
04:10
of how these brilliant machines work,
93
238664
1879
kako ove brilijantne mašine rade,
04:12
and some of the examples may seem trivial,
94
240543
2298
iako neki od primera
mogu izgledati trivijalno,
mogu izgledati trivijalno,
04:14
some are clearly more profound,
95
242841
1996
neki su očigledno dublji,
04:16
but all of them are going to
have a very powerful impact.
have a very powerful impact.
96
244837
4125
ali će svi
imati vrlo snažan uticaj.
imati vrlo snažan uticaj.
04:20
Let's start with aviation.
97
248962
1954
Počnimo sa avijacijom.
04:22
Today, 10 percent of all flights
98
250916
2268
Danas 10 posto svih
04:25
cancellations and delays
99
253184
2118
otkazanih i zakasnelih letova
04:27
are due to unscheduled maintenance events.
100
255302
2701
nastaje usled
nepredvidljivosti u održavanju.
nepredvidljivosti u održavanju.
04:30
Something goes wrong unexpectedly.
101
258003
2032
Neočekivano nešto krene loše.
04:32
This results in eight billion dollars in costs
102
260035
3196
Rezultat toga je
8 milijardi dolara troškova
8 milijardi dolara troškova
04:35
for the airline industry globally every year,
103
263231
2412
za avio industriju na globalnom nivou
svake godine,
svake godine,
04:37
not to mention the impact on all of us:
104
265643
2302
da ne spominjem uticaj na sve nas:
04:39
stress, inconvenience,
105
267945
2085
stres, neprijatnosti,
04:42
missed meetings as we sit helplessly
106
270030
2895
propušteni sastanci dok bespomoćno sedimo
04:44
in an airport terminal.
107
272925
1909
na aerodromu.
04:46
So how can the industrial Internet help here?
108
274834
3418
Kako može industrijski internet
ovde pomoći?
ovde pomoći?
04:50
We've developed a preventive maintenance system
109
278252
2635
Razvili smo preventivni sistem
za održavanje
za održavanje
04:52
which can be installed on any aircraft.
110
280887
1990
koji se može instalirati na svaki avion.
04:54
It's self-learning and able to predict issues
111
282877
3251
On se sam uči i može da predvidi pitanja
04:58
that a human operator would miss.
112
286128
2956
koja bi čovek propustio.
05:01
The aircraft, while in flight,
113
289084
2354
Dok je avion u letu
05:03
will communicate with technicians on the ground.
114
291438
2350
komuniciraće sa tehničarima na terenu.
05:05
By the time it lands, they will already know
115
293788
1960
Do sletanja oni će već znati
05:07
if anything needs to be serviced.
116
295748
2486
ako nešto treba da se servisira.
05:10
Just in the U.S., a system like this can prevent
117
298234
3616
Samo u SAD-u ovakav sistem
može da spreči
može da spreči
05:13
over 60,000 delays and cancellations every year,
118
301850
3707
više od 60.000 kašnjenja i otkazivanja
svake godine,
svake godine,
05:17
helping seven million passengers
119
305557
1962
pomažući da 7 miliona putnika
05:19
get to their destinations on time.
120
307519
2536
stigne do svojih odredišta na vreme.
05:22
Or take healthcare.
121
310055
1653
Ili uzmimo zdravstvo.
05:23
Today, nurses spend an average
122
311708
1731
Danas, medicinske sestre prosečno potroše
05:25
of 21 minutes per shift
123
313439
2643
21 minut po smeni
05:28
looking for medical equipment.
124
316082
1693
u potrazi za medicinskom opremom.
05:29
That seems trivial, but it's less time spent
125
317775
4383
To izgleda trivijalno,
ali to je manje vremena
ali to je manje vremena
05:34
caring for patients.
126
322158
2709
posvećenog pacijentima.
05:36
St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston, Texas,
127
324867
2874
Medicinski centar Svetog Luke
u Hjustonu u Teksasu,
u Hjustonu u Teksasu,
05:39
which has deployed industrial Internet technology
128
327741
2927
koji je primenio industrijsku
internetsku tehnologiju
internetsku tehnologiju
05:42
to electronically monitor and connect
129
330668
2065
za elektronski nadzor i povezivanje
05:44
patients, staff and medical equipment,
130
332733
3199
pacijenata, osoblja i medicinske opreme,
05:47
has reduced bed turnaround times
131
335932
2310
smanjio je vreme smenjivanja kreveta
05:50
by nearly one hour.
132
338242
1735
za skoro jedan sat.
05:51
If you need surgery, one hour matters.
133
339977
2810
Ako vam je operacija potrebna,
jedan sat je bitan.
jedan sat je bitan.
05:54
It means more patients can be treated,
134
342787
2327
To znači da se više pacijenata
može lečiti
može lečiti
05:57
more lives can be saved.
135
345114
1990
i više života spasiti.
05:59
Another medical center, in Washington state,
136
347104
2964
Drugi medicinski centar,
u državi Vašington,
u državi Vašington,
06:02
is piloting an application that allows
137
350068
1888
isprobava aplikaciju kojom
06:03
medical images from city scanners and MRIs
138
351956
3093
se medicinski snimci
iz gradskih skenera i magnetne rezonance
iz gradskih skenera i magnetne rezonance
06:07
to be analyzed in the cloud,
139
355049
2115
analiziraju u oblaku
06:09
developing better analytics
140
357164
2637
da bi se razvijala bolja analitika
06:11
at a lower cost.
141
359801
2561
po nižoj ceni.
06:14
Imagine a patient
142
362362
1624
Zamislite pacijenta
06:15
who has suffered a severe trauma,
143
363986
1434
koji je pretrpeo tešku traumu,
06:17
and needs the attention of several specialists:
144
365420
2755
i potrebna mu je pažnja
nekoliko stručnjaka:
nekoliko stručnjaka:
06:20
a neurologist, a cardiologist,
145
368175
1809
neurologa, kardiologa
06:21
an orthopedic surgeon.
146
369984
1611
i hirurga ortopedije.
06:23
If all of them can have instantaneous
and simultaneous access
and simultaneous access
147
371595
3326
Ako svi oni mogu momentalno
i simultano da pristupe
i simultano da pristupe
06:26
to scans and images as they are taken,
148
374921
2786
skenerima i snimcima,
06:29
they will be able to deliver better healthcare faster.
149
377707
4697
moći će da pruže
bolju zdravstvenu zaštitu brže.
bolju zdravstvenu zaštitu brže.
06:34
So all of this translates into better health outcomes,
150
382405
3078
Dakle, sve to se pretvara
u bolje zdravstvene ishode,
u bolje zdravstvene ishode,
06:37
but it can also deliver substantial economic benefits.
151
385483
3440
ali takođe doprinosi
znatnim ekonomskim koristima.
znatnim ekonomskim koristima.
06:40
Just a one-percent reduction in existing inefficiencies
152
388923
3486
Ako bi se samo za 1 posto smanjile
postojeće neefikasnosti
postojeće neefikasnosti
06:44
could yield savings of over 60 billion dollars
153
392409
3506
moglo bi se uštedeti
više od 60 milijardi dolara
više od 60 milijardi dolara
06:47
to the healthcare industry worldwide,
154
395915
2797
u svetskoj zdravstvenoj industriji,
06:50
and that is just a drop in the sea
155
398712
2359
a to je samo kap u moru
06:53
compared to what we need to do to make healthcare
156
401071
2736
upoređujući sa onim šta bi trebalo
da uradimo da bi zdravstvo
da uradimo da bi zdravstvo
06:55
affordable on a sustainable basis.
157
403807
2421
bilo pristupačno na održivoj osnovi.
06:58
Similar advances are happening in energy,
158
406228
2258
Sličan napredak se događa u energetici,
07:00
including renewable energy.
159
408486
2470
uključujući obnovljive energije.
07:02
Wind farms equipped with new
remote monitorings and diagnostics
remote monitorings and diagnostics
160
410966
4693
Vetroelektrane opremljene novim
daljinskim praćenjima i dijagnostikama
daljinskim praćenjima i dijagnostikama
07:07
that allow wind turbines to talk to each other
161
415659
2595
koje omogućavaju turbinama da
razgovaraju jedna s drugom
razgovaraju jedna s drugom
07:10
and adjust the pitch of their
blades in a coordinated way,
blades in a coordinated way,
162
418254
3849
i da koordinirano prilagođavaju
visinu svojih lopatica,
visinu svojih lopatica,
07:14
depending on how the wind is blowing,
163
422103
2119
u zavisnosti od toga kako vetar duva,
07:16
can now produce electricity at a cost
164
424222
1976
sada proizvode struju po ceni
07:18
of less than five cents per kilowatt/hour.
165
426198
3178
nižoj od 5 centi po kilovatu na sat.
07:21
Ten years ago, that cost was 30 cents,
166
429376
2017
Pre 10 godina
je taj trošak bio 30 centi,
je taj trošak bio 30 centi,
07:23
six times as much.
167
431393
1952
šest puta viši.
07:25
The list goes on, and it will grow fast,
168
433345
2904
Spisak se produžava i narašće brzo,
07:28
because industrial data are
now growing exponentially.
now growing exponentially.
169
436249
2701
jer industrijski podaci
sada rastu eksponencijalno
sada rastu eksponencijalno
07:30
By 2020, they will account for over 50 percent
170
438950
2852
i do 2020. će iznositi
preko 50 posto
preko 50 posto
07:33
of all digital information.
171
441802
2228
od svih digitalnih informacija.
07:36
But this is not just about data, so let me switch gears
172
444030
3179
No, ne radi se samo o podacima,
pa ću se prebaciti
pa ću se prebaciti
07:39
and tell you how this is impacting already
173
447209
2841
i reći vam kako to već sad utiče
07:42
the jobs we do every day,
174
450050
1443
na svakodnevne poslove,
07:43
because this new wave of innovation
175
451493
1721
jer ovaj novi talas inovacija
07:45
is bringing about new tools and applications
176
453214
3116
donosi nove alate i aplikacije
07:48
that will allow us to collaborate
177
456330
2516
koje će nam omogućiti saradnju
07:50
in a smarter and faster way,
178
458846
1570
na pametniji i brži način,
07:52
making our jobs not just more efficient
179
460416
3133
čineći naše poslove ne samo efikasnijim
07:55
but more rewarding.
180
463549
1789
već i smislenijim.
07:57
Imagine a field engineer arriving at the wind farm
181
465338
2904
Zamislite odgovarajućeg inženjera
koji u vetroelektrani
koji u vetroelektrani
08:00
with a handheld device telling her
182
468242
1686
sa ručnog uređaja govori
08:01
which turbines need servicing.
183
469928
2298
koje turbine je potrebno servisirati.
08:04
She already has all the spare parts,
184
472226
1478
Na njoj već postoje rezervni delovi,
08:05
because the problems were diagnosed in advanced.
185
473704
2542
jer su problemi
bili dijagnostikovani unapred.
bili dijagnostikovani unapred.
08:08
And if she faces an unexpected issue,
186
476246
2474
Ukoliko joj se pojavi
neočekivani problem,
neočekivani problem,
08:10
the same handheld device will allow her to
187
478720
2603
isti ručni uređaj će joj omogućiti
08:13
communicate with colleagues at the service center,
188
481323
2508
komuniciranje s kolegama na servisu,
08:15
let them see what she sees,
189
483831
2100
predočiće im ono što ona vidi,
08:17
transmit data that they can run through diagnostics,
190
485931
2755
prenoseći podatke koji rade
preko dijagnostike,
preko dijagnostike,
08:20
and they can stream videos that will guide her,
191
488686
2297
a oni mogu da emituju video snimke
koji će je voditi,
koji će je voditi,
08:22
step by step, through whatever complex procedure
192
490983
2368
korak po korak,
kroz bilo kakav složen postupak,
kroz bilo kakav složen postupak,
08:25
is needed to get the machines back up and running.
193
493351
2462
potreban da se mašine vrate u pogon.
08:27
And their interaction gets documented
194
495813
2016
Njihova interakcija se dokumentuje
08:29
and stored in a searchable database.
195
497829
4402
i čuva u pretraživoj bazi podataka.
08:34
Let's stop and think about this for a minute,
196
502246
1755
Zaustavimo se
i promislimo o tome za minutu,
i promislimo o tome za minutu,
08:36
because this is a very important point.
197
504001
1721
jer je to vrlo važna stvar.
08:37
This new wave of innovation is fundamentally
198
505722
2226
Ovaj novi talas inovacija iz temelja
08:39
changing the way we work.
199
507948
2470
menja način na koji radimo.
08:42
And I know that many of you will be concerned
about the impact that innovation might have on jobs.
about the impact that innovation might have on jobs.
200
510427
5200
I znam da će mnoge od vas zabrinuti
mogući uticaj inovacije na poslove.
mogući uticaj inovacije na poslove.
08:47
Unemployment is already high,
201
515627
1497
Nezaposlenost je već visoka,
08:49
and there is always a fear
that innovation will destroy jobs.
that innovation will destroy jobs.
202
517124
3236
a uvek postoji strah
da će inovacija uništiti radna mesta.
da će inovacija uništiti radna mesta.
08:52
And innovation is disruptive.
203
520360
2131
Inovacija je ta što remeti.
08:54
But let me stress two things here.
204
522491
2453
No, dopustite mi
da naglasim dve stvari.
da naglasim dve stvari.
08:56
First, we've already lived through
205
524944
1931
Prvo, već smo preživeli
08:58
mechanization of agriculture,
automation of industry,
automation of industry,
206
526875
2763
mehanizaciju poljoprivrede,
automatizaciju industrije
automatizaciju industrije
09:01
and employment has gone up,
207
529638
2025
i zapošljavanje je poraslo,
09:03
because innovation is fundamentally about growth.
208
531663
2293
jer je inovacija vezana za rast.
09:05
It makes products more affordable.
209
533956
1893
Ona čini proizvode pristupačnijim.
09:07
It creates new demand, new jobs.
210
535849
2660
Stvara novu potražnju,
nova radna mesta.
nova radna mesta.
09:10
Second, there is a concern that in the future,
211
538509
2582
Drugo, postoji bojazan
da će u budućnosti
da će u budućnosti
09:13
there will only be room for engineers,
212
541091
2156
biti prostora samo za inženjere,
09:15
data scientists, and other highly-specialized workers.
213
543247
3020
naučnike podataka
i druge visoko-specijalizovane radnike.
i druge visoko-specijalizovane radnike.
09:18
And believe me, as an economist, I am also scared.
214
546267
3569
Verujte mi da sam se kao ekonomista
takođe uplašio.
takođe uplašio.
09:21
But think about it:
215
549836
1719
Ali razmislite:
09:23
Just as a child can easily figure out
216
551555
2619
baš kao što dete može lako da shvati
09:26
how to operate an iPad,
217
554174
1756
kako radi Ajped,
09:27
so a new generation of mobile and intuitive
218
555930
2125
tako će nova generacija
mobilnih i intuitivnih
mobilnih i intuitivnih
09:30
industrial applications will make life easier
219
558055
2724
industrijskih aplikacija olakšati život
09:32
for workers of all skill levels.
220
560779
2419
radnicima svih nivoa veštine.
09:35
The worker of the future will be more like Iron Man
221
563198
3202
Radnik će u budućnosti biti
više nalik "Ajron menu"
više nalik "Ajron menu"
09:38
than the Charlie Chaplin of "Modern Times."
222
566400
3126
nego Čarliju Čaplinu
iz "Modernog vremena".
iz "Modernog vremena".
09:41
And to be sure, new high-skilled jobs will be created:
223
569526
3044
I sigurno će se pojaviti
novi visoko-kvalifikovani poslovi:
novi visoko-kvalifikovani poslovi:
09:44
mechanical digital engineers who understand
224
572570
1876
mehanički digitalni inženjeri koji razumeju
09:46
both the machines and the data;
225
574446
2132
i mašine i podatke;
09:48
managers who understand their industry
226
576578
2283
menadžeri koji razumeju
svoju industriju
svoju industriju
09:50
and the analytics and can reorganize the business
227
578861
2861
i analitiku i koji mogu da reorganizuju
poslovanje
poslovanje
09:53
to take full advantage of the technology.
228
581722
3122
i najviše pridobiju tehnologijom.
09:56
But now let's take a step back.
229
584844
2316
No, vratimo se korak nazad.
09:59
Let's look at the big picture.
230
587160
2044
Pogledajmo širu sliku.
10:01
There are people who argue that today's innovation
231
589204
2423
Postoje ljudi koji tvrde
da je današnja inovacija
da je današnja inovacija
10:03
is all about social media and silly games,
232
591627
2349
vezana za društvene medije i glupe igre,
10:05
with nowhere near the transformational power
233
593976
1890
sa snagom preobražaja
koja nije ni blizu onoj
koja nije ni blizu onoj
10:07
of the Industrial Revolution.
234
595866
2079
industrijske revolucije.
10:09
They say that all the growth-enhancing innovations
235
597945
2755
Kažu da su sve inovacije
za povećanje rasta
za povećanje rasta
10:12
are behind us.
236
600700
1426
iza nas.
10:14
And every time I hear this, I can't help thinking that
237
602126
3314
I svaki put kad to čujem,
ne mogu se oteti dojmu
ne mogu se oteti dojmu
10:17
even back in the Stone Age,
238
605440
1968
da je čak i u kameno doba,
10:19
there must have been a group of cavemen
239
607408
2289
morala postojati grupa pećinskih ljudi
10:21
sitting around a fire one day
240
609697
1879
koji su sedeći oko vatre jednog dana,
10:23
looking very grumpy,
241
611576
1526
vrlo prgavog izgleda,
10:25
and looking disapprovingly
at another group of cavemen
at another group of cavemen
242
613102
2726
gledali sa neodobravanjem
na drugu grupu pećinskih ljudi
na drugu grupu pećinskih ljudi
10:27
rolling a stone wheel up and down a hill,
243
615828
2169
koji su kotrljali kameni točak
uz i niz breg,
uz i niz breg,
10:29
and saying to each other,
244
617997
1809
govoreći jedni drugima:
10:31
"Yeah, this wheel thing,
245
619806
2281
"Da, taj točak jeste
10:34
cool toy, sure, but compared to fire,
246
622087
2791
kul igračka, ali u poređenju sa vatrom,
10:36
it will have no impact.
247
624878
2116
neće imati uticaja.
10:38
The big discoveries are all behind us."
248
626994
2324
Velika otkrića su iza nas ".
10:41
(Laughter)
249
629318
1887
(Smeh)
10:43
This technological revolution
250
631205
1548
Ova tehnološka revolucija
10:44
is as inspiring and transformational
251
632753
2528
je jednako inspirativna i preobražajna
10:47
as anything we have ever seen.
252
635281
2013
kao bilo šta što smo ikada videli.
10:49
Human creativity and innovation
have always propelled us forward.
have always propelled us forward.
253
637294
3390
Ljudska kreativnost i inovativnost
su nas uvek gonile napred.
su nas uvek gonile napred.
10:52
They've created jobs.
254
640684
1447
Kreirale su radna mesta.
10:54
They've raised living standards.
255
642131
1389
Podigle su životne standarde.
10:55
They've made our lives
256
643520
1803
Učinile su naše živote
10:57
healthier and more rewarding.
257
645323
2060
zdravijim i vrednijim.
10:59
And the new wave of innovation
258
647383
1243
A novi talas inovacija
11:00
which is beginning to sweep through industry
259
648626
2350
koji počinje da se širi industrijom
11:02
is no different.
260
650976
1622
nije drukčiji.
11:04
In the U.S. alone, the industrial Internet
261
652598
2016
Samo u SAD-u bi industrijski internet
11:06
could raise average income by 25 to 40 percent
262
654614
3940
mogao podići prosečne prihode
za 25 do 40 posto
za 25 do 40 posto
11:10
over the next 15 years,
263
658554
1692
u idućih 15 godina,
11:12
boosting growth to rates we
haven't seen in a long time,
haven't seen in a long time,
264
660246
2669
podsticanjem rasta po stopama
neviđenim već dugo vremena,
neviđenim već dugo vremena,
11:14
and adding between 10 and 15
trillion dollars to global GDP.
trillion dollars to global GDP.
265
662915
3944
i dodavanjem između 10 i 15
biliona dolara globalnom BDP-u.
biliona dolara globalnom BDP-u.
11:18
That is the size of the entire U.S. economy today.
266
666859
4253
To je iznos celokupne
današnje američke privrede.
današnje američke privrede.
11:23
But this is not a foregone conclusion.
267
671112
2511
Ali ovo nije preuranjen zaključak.
11:25
We are just at the beginning of this transformation,
268
673623
1995
Tek smo na početku ove transformacije
11:27
and there will be barriers to break,
269
675618
1856
i biće prepreka za probijanje,
11:29
obstacles to overcome.
270
677474
1686
smetnji za savlađivanje.
11:31
We will need to invest in the new technologies.
271
679160
2541
Moraćemo ulagati u nove tehnologije
11:33
We will need to adapt organizations
and managerial practices.
and managerial practices.
272
681701
3709
i prilagoditi organizacije
i menadžerske prakse.
i menadžerske prakse.
11:37
We will need a robust cybersecurity approach
273
685410
2894
Trebaće nam robustan pristup
sajber obezbeđenju
sajber obezbeđenju
11:40
that protects sensitive information
and intellectual property
and intellectual property
274
688304
3743
koji štiti osetljive informacije
i intelektualnu svojinu
i intelektualnu svojinu
11:44
and safeguards critical infrastructure
from cyberattacks.
from cyberattacks.
275
692047
3240
i daje zaštitu kritičnoj infrastrukturi
od sajber napada.
od sajber napada.
11:47
And the education system will need to evolve
276
695287
2237
I obrazovni sistem će morati da se razvija
11:49
to ensure students are equipped with the right skills.
277
697524
3208
da bi opremio studente pravim veštinama.
11:52
It's not going to be easy,
278
700732
1735
To neće biti lako,
11:54
but it is going to be worth it.
279
702467
2647
ali će biti toga vredno.
11:57
The economic challenges facing us are hard,
280
705114
3548
Ekonomski izazovi s kojima
se suočavamo su teški,
se suočavamo su teški,
12:00
but when I walk the factory floor,
281
708662
2096
ali dok prolazim fabrikom
12:02
and I see how humans and brilliant machines
282
710758
2588
i vidim kako ljudi i brilijantne mašine
12:05
are becoming interconnected,
283
713346
1718
postaju međusobno povezani
12:07
and I see the difference this makes
284
715064
2074
i kakva je to razlika
12:09
in a hospital, in an airport,
285
717138
2566
u bolnici, na aerodromu,
12:11
in a power generation plant, I'm not just optimistic,
286
719704
2681
u elektroenergetskom postrojenju,
nisam samo optimističan,
nisam samo optimističan,
12:14
I'm enthusiastic.
287
722385
1608
već i entuzijastičan.
12:15
This new technological revolution is upon us.
288
723993
3454
Ova nova tehnološka revolucija
je pred nama.
je pred nama.
12:19
So think about the future —
it will be here soon enough.
it will be here soon enough.
289
727447
3194
Dakle, razmišljajte o budućnosti -
biće ovde uskoro.
biće ovde uskoro.
12:22
Thank you.
290
730641
2685
Hvala vam.
12:25
(Applause)
291
733326
4093
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Marco Annunziata - EconomistThe Chief Economist at General Electric, Marco Annunziata is a financial virtuoso with a passion for technology.
Why you should listen
Marco Annunziata is the Chief Economist of General Electric, responsible for the global economic analysis that guides GE’s business strategy. A member of the European Central Bank's Shadow Council and of the European Council of Economists, Annunziata has been featured on Bloomberg, CNBC, and in The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal.
Annunziata arrived at GE in 2011 with a long track record in the financial sector, previously working at Unicredit, Deutsche Bank and the International Monetary Fund, where he researched emerging markets and the Eurozone. Annunziata confesses that he is "childishly proud" of his first book, The Economics of the Financial Crisis (Palgrave MacMillan, 2011). The book traces the global fiscal crisis back to a failure of common sense, in which so many of us played a part, and offers guidance for learning the right lessons from the outcomes.
Marco Annunziata | Speaker | TED.com