TED2015
Paul Tudor Jones II: Why we need to rethink capitalism
Pol Tjudor Džouns (Paul Tudor Jones): Zašto treba da preispitamo kapitalizam
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Pol Tjudor Džouns II voli kapitalizam. To je sistem koji mu je išao na ruku poslednjih nekoliko decenija. Ipak, ovaj menadžer hedž fonda i filantrop je zabrinut da isključivi fokus na zaradi, kako on kaže, „preti samim temeljima društva“. U ovom promišljenom, strastvenom govoru, on ukratko iznosi svoju planiranu kontraofanzivu koja ima za središte koncept „pravednosti“.
Paul Tudor Jones II - Investor
Paul Jones is founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and an active philanthropist. Full bio
Paul Jones is founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and an active philanthropist. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
This is a story about capitalism.
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Ovo je priča o kapitalizmu.
00:16
It's a system I love
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To je sistem koji volim
00:18
because of the successes and opportunities
it's afforded me and millions of others.
it's afforded me and millions of others.
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zbog uspeha i prilika koji je pružio
meni i milionima drugih.
meni i milionima drugih.
00:23
I started in my 20s trading commodities,
cotton in particular, in the pits,
cotton in particular, in the pits,
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Počeo sam u svojim 20-im da trgujem robom,
pamukom naročito, na dnu,
pamukom naročito, na dnu,
a ako je ikada postojalo slobodno tržište
koje je slobodno za sve, to je bilo to,
koje je slobodno za sve, to je bilo to,
00:30
and if there was ever a free market
free-for-all, this was it,
free-for-all, this was it,
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gde su se muškarci koji su nosili kravate,
ali se ponašali kao gladijatori
ali se ponašali kao gladijatori
00:33
where men wearing ties
but acting like gladiators
but acting like gladiators
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borili bukvalno i fizički za zaradu.
00:37
fought literally
and physically for a profit.
and physically for a profit.
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Srećom, išlo mi je dovoljno dobro
da sam do svoje 30. godine
da sam do svoje 30. godine
00:41
Fortunately, I was good enough
that by the time I was 30,
that by the time I was 30,
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00:44
I was able to move into the upstairs
world of money management,
world of money management,
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mogao da se popnem
u svet upravljanja novcem
u svet upravljanja novcem
gde sam proveo naredne tri decenije
kao globalni makro trgovac.
kao globalni makro trgovac.
00:48
where I spent the next three decades
as a global macro trader.
as a global macro trader.
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00:51
And over that time, I've seen
a lot of crazy things in the markets,
a lot of crazy things in the markets,
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Za to vreme sam video
mnogo ludih stvari na tržištima
mnogo ludih stvari na tržištima
00:54
and I've traded a lot of crazy manias.
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i trgovao sam kroz mnogo ludih manija.
00:59
And unfortunately,
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Nažalost,
sa žaljenjem izveštavam
da smo možda u kandžama
da smo možda u kandžama
01:01
I'm sad to report that right now
we might be in the grips
we might be in the grips
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01:04
of one of the most disastrous,
certainly of my career,
certainly of my career,
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jedne od najrazornijih
zasigurno u mojoj karijeri,
zasigurno u mojoj karijeri,
01:08
and one consistent takeaway is
manias never end well.
manias never end well.
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a dosledno dokazana pouka
je da se manije nikada ne završe dobro.
je da se manije nikada ne završe dobro.
01:12
Now, over the past 50 years,
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Tokom proteklih 50 godina,
01:15
we as a society have come to view
our companies and corporations
our companies and corporations
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kao društvo, došli smo do sagledavanja
naših kompanija i korporacija
naših kompanija i korporacija
01:21
in a very narrow, almost
monomaniacal fashion
monomaniacal fashion
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na vrlo ograničen,
gotovo monomanijakalni način
gotovo monomanijakalni način
u pogledu načina na koji ih vrednujemo,
01:26
with regard to how we value them,
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01:30
and we have put
so much emphasis on profits,
so much emphasis on profits,
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a toliko smo stavili naglaska na profit,
01:33
on short-term quarterly
earnings and share prices,
earnings and share prices,
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na kratkoročne kvartalne zarade
i cene akcija,
i cene akcija,
da smo isključili sve ostalo.
01:36
at the exclusion of all else.
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Kao da smo istrgli čovečnost
iz naših kompanija.
iz naših kompanija.
01:39
It's like we've ripped the humanity
out of our companies.
out of our companies.
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01:44
Now, we don't do that --
conveniently reduce something
conveniently reduce something
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Mi to ne radimo -
nećemo nešto prikladno svesti
nećemo nešto prikladno svesti
na skup brojeva sa kojima se možemo igrati
poput Lego kockica -
poput Lego kockica -
01:48
to a set of numbers that you
can play with like Lego toys --
can play with like Lego toys --
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to ne radimo u našem ličnom životu.
01:51
we don't do that in our individual life.
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Ne tretiramo osobu niti je cenimo
01:53
We don't treat somebody or value them
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01:57
based on their monthly income
or their credit score,
or their credit score,
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na osnovu njenog mesečnog prihoda
ili kreditnih poena,
ili kreditnih poena,
ali imamo dvostruki standard
02:01
but we have this double standard
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kada je u pitanju način
na koji vrednujemo naše firme,
na koji vrednujemo naše firme,
02:03
when it comes to the way
that we value our businesses,
that we value our businesses,
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a znate šta?
02:05
and you know what?
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To preti samim temeljima našeg društva.
02:07
It's threatening the very
underpinnings of our society.
underpinnings of our society.
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Evo kako ćete to uvideti.
02:10
And here's how you'll see.
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Na ovom grafikonu su prikazane
korporativne profitne marže
korporativne profitne marže
02:11
This chart is corporate profit margins
going back 40 years
going back 40 years
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40 godina unazad kao procenat prihoda
02:16
as a percentage of revenues,
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i možete videti da se nalazimo
na 40-godišnjem vrhuncu od 12,5 procenata.
na 40-godišnjem vrhuncu od 12,5 procenata.
02:18
and you can see that we're
at a 40-year high of 12.5 percent.
at a 40-year high of 12.5 percent.
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Ura ako ste vlasnik akcija,
02:22
Now, hooray if you're a shareholder,
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02:26
but if you're the other side of that,
and you're the average American worker,
and you're the average American worker,
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ali ako se nalazite na drugoj strani,
ako ste prosečan američki radnik,
ako ste prosečan američki radnik,
02:30
then you can see it's not
such a good thing.
such a good thing.
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onda možete videti
da to nije tako dobra stvar.
da to nije tako dobra stvar.
02:33
["U.S. Share of Income Going to Labor vs.
CEO-to-Worker Compensation Ratio"]
CEO-to-Worker Compensation Ratio"]
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[„Udeo prihoda koji ide radnicima u SAD
u odnosu na naknade rukovodiocima“]
u odnosu na naknade rukovodiocima“]
Veće profitne marže
ne povećavaju društveno bogatstvo.
ne povećavaju društveno bogatstvo.
02:37
Now, higher profit margins
do not increase societal wealth.
do not increase societal wealth.
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02:40
What they actually do is they
exacerbate income inequality,
exacerbate income inequality,
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One zapravo pogoršavaju
nejednakost prihoda,
nejednakost prihoda,
02:45
and that's not a good thing.
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a to nije dobra stvar.
Ipak, intuitivno, to ima smisla, zar ne?
02:48
But intuitively, that makes sense, right?
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Ako 10 procenata
američkih porodica na vrhu
američkih porodica na vrhu
02:50
Because if the top 10 percent
of American families
of American families
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02:54
own 90 percent of the stocks,
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poseduje 90 posto akcija,
dok one uzimaju veći deo
korporativnih profita,
korporativnih profita,
02:56
as they take a greater share
of corporate profits,
of corporate profits,
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02:59
then there's less wealth left
for the rest of society.
for the rest of society.
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onda manje bogatstva ostaje
za ostatak društva.
za ostatak društva.
03:03
Again, income inequality
is not a good thing.
is not a good thing.
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Opet, nejednakost prihoda
nije dobra stvar.
nije dobra stvar.
Sledeći grafikon
koji je napravio Fond ravnopravnosti
koji je napravio Fond ravnopravnosti
03:06
This next chart,
made by The Equality Trust,
made by The Equality Trust,
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03:08
shows 21 countries from Austria
to Japan to New Zealand.
to Japan to New Zealand.
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pokazuje 21 zemlju, od Austrije
preko Japana do Novog Zelanda.
preko Japana do Novog Zelanda.
Na horizontalnoj osi
je nejednakost u visini dohotka.
je nejednakost u visini dohotka.
03:13
On the horizontal axis
is income inequality.
is income inequality.
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Što dalje idete desno,
veća je nejednakost u visini dohotka.
veća je nejednakost u visini dohotka.
03:16
The further to the right you go,
the greater the income inequality.
the greater the income inequality.
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03:20
On the vertical axis
are nine social and health metrics.
are nine social and health metrics.
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Na vertikalnoj osi je dato
devet socijalnih i zdravstvenih merila.
devet socijalnih i zdravstvenih merila.
03:23
The more you go up that,
the worse the problems are,
the worse the problems are,
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Što više idete gore, gori su problemi,
a ta merila obuhvataju
a ta merila obuhvataju
03:26
and those metrics include life expectancy,
teenage pregnancy, literacy,
teenage pregnancy, literacy,
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očekivani životni vek,
trudnoću u tinejdžerskom dobu, pismenost,
trudnoću u tinejdžerskom dobu, pismenost,
03:31
social mobility, just to name a few.
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društvenu pokretljivost,
da navedemo samo neke.
da navedemo samo neke.
03:34
Now, those of you in the audience
who are Americans may wonder,
who are Americans may wonder,
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Oni među vama u publici
koji su Amerikanci se možda pitaju
koji su Amerikanci se možda pitaju
03:37
well, where does the United States rank?
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na kom rangu se nalaze Sjedinjene Države.
03:39
Where does it lie on that chart?
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Gde leže na ovom grafikonu?
Pogodite šta?
03:41
And guess what?
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Bukvalno smo van grafikona.
03:43
We're literally off the chart.
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Da, to smo mi,
03:45
Yes, that's us,
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sa najvećom nejednakošću u visini dohotka
03:47
with the greatest income inequality
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03:49
and the greatest social problems,
according to those metrics.
according to those metrics.
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i najvećim društvenim problemima
prema tim merilima.
prema tim merilima.
03:54
Now, here's a macro forecast
that's easy to make,
that's easy to make,
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Evo makro prognoze koju je lako sačiniti,
03:56
and that's, that gap between
the wealthiest and the poorest,
the wealthiest and the poorest,
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a to je da će taj jaz
između najbogatijih i najsiromašnijih
između najbogatijih i najsiromašnijih
04:00
it will get closed.
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biti zatvoren.
04:02
History always does it.
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Istorija to uvek čini.
To se tipično dogodi
na jedan od tri načina:
na jedan od tri načina:
04:04
It typically happens in one of three ways:
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04:06
either through revolution,
higher taxes, or wars.
higher taxes, or wars.
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kroz revoluciju, veće poreze ili ratove.
Ništa od toga nije na mojoj listi želja.
04:12
None of those are on my bucket list.
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04:14
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Postoji još jedan način da se to uradi,
04:16
Now, there's another way to do it,
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a to je povećanjem pravednosti
u korporativnom ponašanju,
u korporativnom ponašanju,
04:18
and that's by increasing justness
in corporate behavior,
in corporate behavior,
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04:22
but the way that we're
operating right now,
operating right now,
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ali imajući u vidu način
na koji sada poslujemo,
na koji sada poslujemo,
04:24
that would require
a tremendous change in behavior,
a tremendous change in behavior,
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to bi zahtevalo
ogromne promene u ponašanju,
ogromne promene u ponašanju,
04:28
and like an addict trying to kick a habit,
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i kao zavisnik koji pokušava
da se otarasi navike,
da se otarasi navike,
04:32
the first step is to acknowledge
that you have a problem.
that you have a problem.
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prvi korak je priznati da imate problem.
04:36
And let me just say,
this profits mania that we're on
this profits mania that we're on
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I dozvolite mi da kažem,
ova profitna manija u kojoj se nalazimo
ova profitna manija u kojoj se nalazimo
04:40
is so deeply entrenched
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je toliko duboko ukorenjena
da čak ni ne shvatamo
kako škodimo društvu.
kako škodimo društvu.
04:42
that we don't even realize
how we're harming society.
how we're harming society.
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Evo malog, ali iznenađujućeg primera
o tome kako tačno to radimo.
o tome kako tačno to radimo.
04:45
Here's a small but startling example
of exactly how we're doing that:
of exactly how we're doing that:
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Ovaj grafikon pokazuje
korporativna davanja
korporativna davanja
04:49
this chart shows corporate giving
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kao procenat profita, a ne prihoda,
tokom poslednjih 30 godina.
tokom poslednjih 30 godina.
04:52
as a percentage of profits,
not revenues, over the last 30 years.
not revenues, over the last 30 years.
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Uporedite to sa prethodnim grafikonom
korporativnih profitnih marži
korporativnih profitnih marži
04:57
Juxtapose that to the earlier chart
of corporate profit margins,
of corporate profit margins,
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05:03
and I ask you, does that feel right?
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i pitam vas, da li se to čini ispravno?
05:08
In all fairness, when I
started writing this, I thought,
started writing this, I thought,
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Iskreno, kada sam počeo
da pišem ovo, pomislio sam:
da pišem ovo, pomislio sam:
„O, vau, šta moja kompanija čini,
šta Tjudor čini?“
šta Tjudor čini?“
05:11
"Oh wow, what does my company,
what does Tudor do?"
what does Tudor do?"
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i shvatio sam da dajemo
jedan procenat korporativnih profita
jedan procenat korporativnih profita
05:14
And I realized we give one percent
of corporate profits
of corporate profits
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u dobrotvorne svrhe svake godine.
05:19
to charity every year.
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05:21
And I'm supposed to be a philanthropist.
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A ja bi trebalo da budem filantrop.
05:25
When I realized that, I literally
wanted to throw up.
wanted to throw up.
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Kada sam to shvatio,
bukvalno sam hteo da povratim.
bukvalno sam hteo da povratim.
Poenta je da je ova manija
toliko duboko ukorenjena
toliko duboko ukorenjena
05:31
But the point is, this mania
is so deeply entrenched
is so deeply entrenched
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05:34
that well-intentioned people like myself
don't even realize that we're part of it.
don't even realize that we're part of it.
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da dobronamerni ljudi poput mene
čak ni ne shvataju da su deo toga.
čak ni ne shvataju da su deo toga.
E, sad, nećemo izmeniti
korporativno ponašanje
korporativno ponašanje
05:39
Now, we're not going
to change corporate behavior
to change corporate behavior
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jednostavnim povećanjem filantropije
u korporacijama ili dobrotvornih priloga.
u korporacijama ili dobrotvornih priloga.
05:42
by simply increasing corporate
philanthropy or charitable contributions.
philanthropy or charitable contributions.
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05:47
And oh, by the way,
we've since quadrupled that,
we've since quadrupled that,
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Uzgred, od tada smo to učetvorostručili,
05:50
but -- (Applause) -- Please.
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ali - (Aplauz) - molim vas.
05:54
But we can do it by driving
more just behavior.
more just behavior.
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Možemo to učiniti
podsticanjem pravednog ponašanja.
podsticanjem pravednog ponašanja.
05:58
And one way to do it is actually trusting
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Jedan način za to je verovati
06:01
the system that got us
here in the first place,
here in the first place,
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sistemu koji nas je ovde prvobitno doveo,
a to je sistem slobodnog tržišta.
06:04
and that's the free market system.
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Pre oko godinu dana,
neki moji prijatelji i ja
neki moji prijatelji i ja
06:06
About a year ago,
some friends of mine and I
some friends of mine and I
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započeli smo neprofitnu organizaciju
pod imenom Pravedni kapital.
pod imenom Pravedni kapital.
06:08
started a not-for-profit
called Just Capital.
called Just Capital.
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Njena misija je vrlo jednostavna:
06:12
Its mission is very simple:
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06:13
to help companies and corporations
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da pomogne kompanijama
i korporacijama da nauče
i korporacijama da nauče
06:15
learn how to operate in a more just
fashion by using the public's input
fashion by using the public's input
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kako da posluju na pravedniji način
koristeći podatke dobijene od javnosti
koristeći podatke dobijene od javnosti
06:21
to define exactly what the criteria are
for just corporate behavior.
for just corporate behavior.
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da bi definisali koji su tačno kriterijumi
za pravedno korporativno ponašanje.
za pravedno korporativno ponašanje.
U ovom trenutku ne postoji
široko prihvaćeni standard
široko prihvaćeni standard
06:27
Now, right now, there's
no widely accepted standard
no widely accepted standard
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06:29
that a company or corporation can follow,
and that's where Just Capital comes in,
and that's where Just Capital comes in,
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koji kompanija ili korporacija
može slediti,
može slediti,
a upravo tu nastupa Pravedni kapital,
jer počevši od ove godine i svake naredne
ćemo sprovoditi nacionalno istraživanje
ćemo sprovoditi nacionalno istraživanje
06:34
because beginning this year and every year
we'll be conducting a nationwide survey
we'll be conducting a nationwide survey
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06:39
of a representative sample
of 20,000 Americans
of 20,000 Americans
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na reprezentativnom uzorku
od 20 000 Amerikanaca
od 20 000 Amerikanaca
da bismo otkrili tačno šta misle
06:43
to find out exactly what they think
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da su kriterijumi pravednosti
u korporativnom ponašanju.
u korporativnom ponašanju.
06:46
are the criteria for justness
in corporate behavior.
in corporate behavior.
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06:50
Now, this is a model that's going
to start in the United States
to start in the United States
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To je model koji će otpočeti
u Sjedinjenim Državama,
u Sjedinjenim Državama,
ali se može proširiti bilo gde na planeti,
06:53
but can be expanded
anywhere around the globe,
anywhere around the globe,
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i možda ćemo otkriti
06:56
and maybe we'll find out
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da je najvažnija stvar za javnost
06:58
that the most important
thing for the public
thing for the public
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07:00
is that we create living wage jobs,
or make healthy products,
or make healthy products,
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da stvorimo poslove sa minimalnom satnicom
ili da napravimo zdrave proizvode,
ili da napravimo zdrave proizvode,
07:06
or help, not harm, the environment.
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ili da pomognemo životnoj sredini
umesto da joj nanosimo štetu.
umesto da joj nanosimo štetu.
07:09
At Just Capital, we don't know,
and it's not for us to decide.
and it's not for us to decide.
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U Pravednom kapitalu, mi to ne znamo,
i nije na nama da odlučimo.
i nije na nama da odlučimo.
Mi samo prenosimo poruku,
07:13
We're but messengers,
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ali imamo 100 posto poverenja
i vere u američku javnost
i vere u američku javnost
07:15
but we have 100 percent confidence
and faith in the American public
and faith in the American public
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07:19
to get it right.
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da će se to razumeti kako treba.
Objavićemo zaključke
prvi put ovog septembra,
prvi put ovog septembra,
07:21
So we'll release the findings
this September for the first time,
this September for the first time,
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a zatim ćemo sledeće godine
ponoviti anketu
ponoviti anketu
07:25
and then next year, we'll poll again,
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07:27
and we'll take the additive step this time
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i tada ćemo načiniti dodatne korake
07:30
of ranking the 1,000
largest U.S. companies
largest U.S. companies
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rangirajući 1 000 najvećih kompanija u SAD
07:33
from number one to number 1,000
and everything in between.
and everything in between.
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od broja jedan do broja 1 000
i sve između.
i sve između.
07:37
We're calling it the Just Index,
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To nazivamo Pravedni indeks,
i upamtite, mi smo nezavisna
neprofitna organizacija bez predrasuda
neprofitna organizacija bez predrasuda
07:40
and remember, we're an independent
not-for-profit with no bias,
not-for-profit with no bias,
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07:45
and we will be giving
the American public a voice.
the American public a voice.
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i davaćemo glas američkoj javnosti.
Možda ćemo vremenom otkriti da,
kako ljudi budu dolazili do saznanja
kako ljudi budu dolazili do saznanja
07:50
And maybe over time, we'll find out
that as people come to know
that as people come to know
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07:55
which companies are the most just,
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koje kompanije su najpravednije,
ljudski i ekonomski resursi
će biti usmereni ka njima,
će biti usmereni ka njima,
07:57
human and economic resources
will be driven towards them,
will be driven towards them,
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postaće najuspešnije
08:01
and they'll become the most prosperous
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i pomoći će našoj zemlji
da bude najuspešnija.
da bude najuspešnija.
08:03
and help our country
be the most prosperous.
be the most prosperous.
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Kapitalizam je odgovoran
za svaku veću inovaciju
za svaku veću inovaciju
08:07
Now, capitalism has been responsible
for every major innovation
for every major innovation
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koja je učinila ovaj svet inspirativnijim
i divnijim mestom za život.
i divnijim mestom za život.
08:11
that's made this world a more inspiring
and wonderful place to live in.
and wonderful place to live in.
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Kapitalizam mora biti zasnovan na pravdi.
08:16
Capitalism has to be based on justice.
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Mora da bude, a sada više nego ikada,
08:19
It has to be, and now more than ever,
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sa ekonomskim podelama
koje svakodnevno postaju sve veće.
koje svakodnevno postaju sve veće.
08:21
with economic divisions
growing wider every day.
growing wider every day.
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Procenjuje se da se 47 posto
američkih radnika
američkih radnika
08:25
It's estimated that 47 percent
of American workers
of American workers
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može ukloniti u narednih 20 godina.
08:28
can be displaced in the next 20 years.
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Nisam protiv napretka.
08:31
I'm not against progress.
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Želim auto bez vozača i raketni pojas
baš kao i svi ostali,
baš kao i svi ostali,
08:33
I want the driverless car and the jet pack
just like everyone else.
just like everyone else.
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ali zalažem se za prepoznavanje
da uz povećano bogatstvo i profite
da uz povećano bogatstvo i profite
08:38
But I'm pleading for recognition
that with increased wealth and profits
that with increased wealth and profits
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mora da ide veća korporativna
društvena odgovornost.
društvena odgovornost.
08:44
has to come greater
corporate social responsibility.
corporate social responsibility.
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„Ako se pravda ukloni“,
rekao je Adam Smit, otac kapitalizma,
rekao je Adam Smit, otac kapitalizma,
08:49
"If justice is removed," said Adam Smith,
the father of capitalism,
the father of capitalism,
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„veliko, neizmerno tkivo
ljudskog društva se mora u trenutku
ljudskog društva se mora u trenutku
08:55
"the great, the immense fabric
of human society must in a moment
of human society must in a moment
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raspasti na atome.“
09:01
crumble into atoms."
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09:05
Now, when I was young,
and there was a problem,
and there was a problem,
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Kada sam bio mlad
i postojao je neki problem,
i postojao je neki problem,
moja mama bi uvek uzdahnula,
odmahnula glavom i rekla:
odmahnula glavom i rekla:
09:09
my mama used to always
sigh and shake her head and say,
sigh and shake her head and say,
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„Imaj milosti, imaj milosti.“
09:13
"Have mercy, have mercy."
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Sada nije vreme da im mi,
ostatak nas, pokažemo milost.
ostatak nas, pokažemo milost.
09:17
Now's not the time for us,
for the rest of us to show them mercy.
for the rest of us to show them mercy.
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Vreme je da im pokažemo ispravnost,
09:22
The time is now for us
to show them fairness,
to show them fairness,
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a mi to možemo, vi i ja,
09:25
and we can do that, you and I,
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09:27
by starting where we work,
in the businesses that we operate in.
in the businesses that we operate in.
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počevši od mesta na kome radimo,
od firmi u kojima poslujemo,
od firmi u kojima poslujemo,
a kada stavimo pravednost
rame uz rame sa profitom,
rame uz rame sa profitom,
09:33
And when we put justness
on par with profits,
on par with profits,
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09:36
we'll get the most wonderful thing
in all the world.
in all the world.
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dobićemo najdivniju stvar na svetu -
povratićemo našu čovečnost.
09:40
We'll take back our humanity.
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09:43
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
(Aplauz)
09:46
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Tudor Jones II - InvestorPaul Jones is founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and an active philanthropist.
Why you should listen
Paul Tudor Jones II started to work on Wall Street in 1976. "If there was ever a free market free-for-all, this was it," he says. "Men wearing ties but acting like gladiators fought literally and physically for a profit." Jones emerged victorious, and as founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and other companies within the Tudor Group, he engages in trading in the fixed income, equity, currency and commodity markets. Headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut, Tudor manages some $13.7 billion and employs almost 400 people.
Jones is an active philanthropist, including founding the Robin Hood Foundation and the Excellence Charter School, and he sits on the Boards of Just Capital, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Everglades Foundation, and Sonima Foundation. He is also a trustee of NYU's Langone Medical Center.
Paul Tudor Jones II | Speaker | TED.com