TED2018
César Hidalgo: A bold idea to replace politicians
Cezar Idalgo (César Hidalgo): Odvažna ideja da se zamene političari
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Cezar Idalgo ima radikalan predlog za popravljanje našeg manjkavog političkog sistema: automatizujmo ga! U ovom provokativnom govoru, opisuje hrabru ideju da se zaobiđu političari, osnaživanjem građana da stvaraju personalizovane zastupnike veštačke inteligencije koji će direktno da učestvuju u demokratskim odlukama. Istražite novi način donošenja kolektivnih odluka i proširite svoje razumevanje demokratije.
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00:13
Is it just me,
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Da li je do mene,
00:15
or are there other people here
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ili ovde ima i drugih ljudi
00:17
that are a little bit
disappointed with democracy?
disappointed with democracy?
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koji su malo razočarani u demokratiju?
00:20
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
00:24
So let's look at a few numbers.
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Pogledajmo neke brojke.
00:26
If we look across the world,
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Ako pogledamo širom sveta,
00:29
the median turnout
in presidential elections
in presidential elections
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prosečna izlaznost
na predsedničkim izborima
na predsedničkim izborima
00:33
over the last 30 years
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u proteklih 30 godina
00:34
has been just 67 percent.
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je bila svega 67 procenata.
00:38
Now, if we go to Europe
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Ako pođemo do Evrope
00:40
and we look at people that participated
in EU parliamentary elections,
in EU parliamentary elections,
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i pogledamo ljude koji su učestvovali
na parlamentarnim izborima EU,
na parlamentarnim izborima EU,
00:44
the median turnout in those elections
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prosečna izlaznost na tim izborima
00:46
is just 42 percent.
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je svega 42 procenta.
00:50
Now let's go to New York,
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Pođimo sad u Njujork,
00:51
and let's see how many people voted
in the last election for mayor.
in the last election for mayor.
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i pogledajmo koliko je ljudi glasalo
na poslednjim izborima za gradonačelnika.
na poslednjim izborima za gradonačelnika.
00:56
We will find that only
24 percent of people showed up to vote.
24 percent of people showed up to vote.
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Otkrićemo da se svega 24 procenta
ljudi pojavilo na glasanju.
ljudi pojavilo na glasanju.
01:01
What that means is that,
if "Friends" was still running,
if "Friends" was still running,
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To znači da kad bi se i dalje
prikazivali „Prijatelji”,
prikazivali „Prijatelji”,
01:04
Joey and maybe Phoebe
would have shown up to vote.
would have shown up to vote.
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Džoi i možda Fibi
bi se pojavili na glasanju.
bi se pojavili na glasanju.
01:07
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:09
And you cannot blame them
because people are tired of politicians.
because people are tired of politicians.
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I ne možete da ih krivite,
jer je ljudima dosta političara.
jer je ljudima dosta političara.
01:13
And people are tired of other people
using the data that they have generated
using the data that they have generated
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I ljudima je dosta drugih ljudi
koji koriste podatke koje su oni stvorili
koji koriste podatke koje su oni stvorili
01:17
to communicate with
their friends and family,
their friends and family,
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da bi razgovarali
sa prijateljima i porodicom,
sa prijateljima i porodicom,
01:20
to target political propaganda at them.
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kako bi usmeravali
političku propagandu na njih.
političku propagandu na njih.
01:22
But the thing about this
is that this is not new.
is that this is not new.
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Međutim, radi se o tome
da ovo nije novina.
da ovo nije novina.
01:25
Nowadays, people use likes
to target propaganda at you
to target propaganda at you
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Danas ljudi koriste lajkove
radi ciljane propagande ka vama,
radi ciljane propagande ka vama,
01:28
before they use your zip code
or your gender or your age,
or your gender or your age,
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a nekad su koristili poštanski broj,
vaš pol ili vaš uzrast,
vaš pol ili vaš uzrast,
01:31
because the idea of targeting people
with propaganda for political purposes
with propaganda for political purposes
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jer je ideja ciljanja ljudi
u svrhe političke propagande
u svrhe političke propagande
01:35
is as old as politics.
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stara koliko i politika.
01:37
And the reason why that idea is there
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A razlog zašto je ta ideja prisutna
01:39
is because democracy
has a basic vulnerability.
has a basic vulnerability.
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je zato što demokratija
ima osnovnu ranjivost.
ima osnovnu ranjivost.
01:43
This is the idea of a representative.
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A radi se o ideji zastupnika.
01:46
In principle, democracy is the ability
of people to exert power.
of people to exert power.
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U principu, demokratija je mogućnost
da ljudi vrše vlast.
da ljudi vrše vlast.
01:50
But in practice, we have to delegate
that power to a representative
that power to a representative
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U praksi, međutim, moramo
da delegiramo tu moć zastupniku
da delegiramo tu moć zastupniku
01:53
that can exert that power for us.
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koji može da vrši vlast za nas.
01:56
That representative is a bottleneck,
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Taj zastupnik je usko grlo,
01:58
or a weak spot.
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ili slaba tačka.
01:59
It is the place that you want to target
if you want to attack democracy
if you want to attack democracy
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To je mesto koje biste ciljali,
ako želite da napadnete demokratiju,
ako želite da napadnete demokratiju,
02:03
because you can capture democracy
by either capturing that representative
by either capturing that representative
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jer možete da kontrolišete demokratiju
bilo kontrolisanjem tog zastupnika
bilo kontrolisanjem tog zastupnika
02:07
or capturing the way
that people choose it.
that people choose it.
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ili kontrolisanjem načina
na koji ga ljudi biraju.
na koji ga ljudi biraju.
Veliko pitanje glasi:
02:10
So the big question is:
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02:11
Is this the end of history?
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da li je ovo kraj istorije?
02:13
Is this the best that we can do
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Da li je ovo najbolje što možemo
02:17
or, actually, are there alternatives?
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ili zapravo postoje alternative?
02:22
Some people have been thinking
about alternatives,
about alternatives,
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Neki ljudi su razmišljali o alternativama,
02:24
and one of the ideas that is out there
is the idea of direct democracy.
is the idea of direct democracy.
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a jedna od zamisli u opticaju
je zamisao o direktnoj demokratiji.
je zamisao o direktnoj demokratiji.
02:28
This is the idea of bypassing
politicians completely
politicians completely
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Radi se o zamisli zaobilaženja
političara u potpunosti,
političara u potpunosti,
02:31
and having people vote directly on issues,
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gde ljudi direktno glasaju o pitanjima,
02:33
having people vote directly on bills.
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direktno glasaju za predloge zakona.
02:36
But this idea is naive
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Međutim, ova ideja je naivna,
02:37
because there's too many things
that we would need to choose.
that we would need to choose.
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jer ima previše stvari
koje bismo morali da biramo.
koje bismo morali da biramo.
02:40
If you look at the 114th US Congress,
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Ako pogledate 114. kongres SAD-a,
02:43
you will have seen that
the House of Representatives
the House of Representatives
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videćete da je Predstavnički dom
02:46
considered more than 6,000 bills,
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razmatrao preko 6 000 predloga zakona,
02:49
the Senate considered
more than 3,000 bills
more than 3,000 bills
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Senat je razmatrao
preko 3 000 predloga zakona,
preko 3 000 predloga zakona,
02:51
and they approved more than 300 laws.
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a odobrili su preko 300 zakona.
02:54
Those would be many decisions
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To bi bile brojne odluke
02:56
that each person would have to make a week
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koje bi svaka osoba morala
nedeljno da donese,
nedeljno da donese,
02:58
on topics that they know little about.
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o temama o kojima malo znaju.
03:01
So there's a big cognitive
bandwidth problem
bandwidth problem
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Dakle, imamo veliki problem
sa kognitivnim opsegom
sa kognitivnim opsegom
03:03
if we're going to try to think about
direct democracy as a viable alternative.
direct democracy as a viable alternative.
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ako ćemo da razmišljamo o direktnoj
demokratiji kao mogućoj alternativi.
demokratiji kao mogućoj alternativi.
03:08
So some people think about the idea
of liquid democracy, or fluid democracy,
of liquid democracy, or fluid democracy,
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Pa neki ljudi razmatraju ideju
tečne demokratije ili fluidne demokratije,
tečne demokratije ili fluidne demokratije,
03:12
which is the idea that you endorse
your political power to someone,
your political power to someone,
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a to je ideja da date punomoć
za vašu političku moć nekome,
za vašu političku moć nekome,
03:16
who can endorse it to someone else,
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ko može tu punomoć dati nekom drugom,
03:18
and, eventually, you create
a large follower network
a large follower network
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da biste na kraju stvorili
veliku mrežu pratilaca
veliku mrežu pratilaca
03:20
in which, at the end, there's a few people
that are making decisions
that are making decisions
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u kojoj se na kraju nalazi
nekolicina ljudi koja donosi odluke,
nekolicina ljudi koja donosi odluke,
03:24
on behalf of all of their followers
and their followers.
and their followers.
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u ime svih njihovih pratilaca
i pratilaca tih pratilaca.
i pratilaca tih pratilaca.
03:28
But this idea also doesn't solve
the problem of the cognitive bandwidth
the problem of the cognitive bandwidth
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Međutim, ni ova ideja ne rešava
problem kognitivnog opsega,
problem kognitivnog opsega,
03:32
and, to be honest, it's also quite similar
to the idea of having a representative.
to the idea of having a representative.
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i iskreno, prilično je slična
ideji da imate zastupnika.
ideji da imate zastupnika.
03:36
So what I'm going to do today is
I'm going to be a little bit provocative,
I'm going to be a little bit provocative,
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Zato ću ja danas da budem
malo provokativan,
malo provokativan,
pa ću vas pitati:
03:40
and I'm going to ask you, well:
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03:42
What if, instead of trying
to bypass politicians,
to bypass politicians,
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šta ako bismo umesto pokušavanja
da zaobiđemo političare,
da zaobiđemo političare,
03:49
we tried to automate them?
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pokušali da ih automatizujemo?
03:57
The idea of automation is not new.
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Ideja automatizacije nije nova.
04:00
It was started more than 300 years ago,
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Pokrenuta je pre više od 300 godina,
04:02
when French weavers decided
to automate the loom.
to automate the loom.
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kada su francuski tkači
odlučili da automatizuju razboj.
odlučili da automatizuju razboj.
04:06
The winner of that industrial war
was Joseph-Marie Jacquard.
was Joseph-Marie Jacquard.
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Pobednik tog industrijskog rata
je bio Žozef-Mari Žakard.
je bio Žozef-Mari Žakard.
04:11
He was a French weaver and merchant
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On je bio francuski tkalac i trgovac
04:12
that married the loom
with the steam engine
with the steam engine
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koji je spojio razboj sa parnim motorom
04:15
to create autonomous looms.
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kako bi napravio automatski razboj.
04:17
And in those autonomous looms,
he gained control.
he gained control.
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Sa tim automatskim razbojima
on je pridobio kontrolu.
on je pridobio kontrolu.
04:20
He could now make fabrics that were
more complex and more sophisticated
more complex and more sophisticated
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Sada je mogao da pravi materijale
koji su složeniji i prefinjeniji
koji su složeniji i prefinjeniji
04:24
than the ones they
were able to do by hand.
were able to do by hand.
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od onih koji su pravljeni ručno.
04:27
But also, by winning that industrial war,
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Međutim, pobedom u tom industrijskom ratu
04:29
he laid out what has become
the blueprint of automation.
the blueprint of automation.
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postavio je i temelje nečemu
što će postati obrazac automatizacije.
što će postati obrazac automatizacije.
04:34
The way that we automate things
for the last 300 years
for the last 300 years
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Način na koji automatizujemo stvari
u proteklih 300 godina
u proteklih 300 godina
04:37
has always been the same:
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je oduvek bio isti:
04:39
we first identify a need,
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prvo identifikujemo potrebu,
04:41
then we create a tool
to satisfy that need,
to satisfy that need,
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potom napravimo oruđe
da zadovoljimo potrebu,
da zadovoljimo potrebu,
04:44
like the loom, in this case,
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poput razboja u ovom slučaju,
04:46
and then we study how people use that tool
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a potom izučavamo
kako ljudi koriste to oruđe
kako ljudi koriste to oruđe
04:49
to automate that user.
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da bismo automatizovali korisnika.
04:51
That's how we came
from the mechanical loom
from the mechanical loom
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Tako smo prešli sa mehaničkog razboja
04:54
to the autonomous loom,
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na automatski razboj,
04:56
and that took us a thousand years.
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a za to nam je bilo potrebno
hiljadu godina.
hiljadu godina.
04:58
Now, it's taken us only a hundred years
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Bilo nam je potrebno svega sto godina
05:00
to use the same script
to automate the car.
to automate the car.
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da korstimo isti scenario
da automatizujemo automobil.
da automatizujemo automobil.
05:05
But the thing is that, this time around,
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Međutim, radi se o tome da je ovaj put
05:07
automation is kind of for real.
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automatizacije nekako stvarna.
05:09
This is a video that a colleague of mine
from Toshiba shared with me
from Toshiba shared with me
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Ovo je snimak koji je moj kolega
iz Tošibe podelio sa mnom.
iz Tošibe podelio sa mnom.
05:13
that shows the factory
that manufactures solid state drives.
that manufactures solid state drives.
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On pokazuje fabriku
koja proizvodi poluprovodničke diskove.
koja proizvodi poluprovodničke diskove.
05:16
The entire factory is a robot.
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Čitava fabrika je robot.
05:18
There are no humans in that factory.
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Nema ljudi u fabrici.
05:21
And the robots are soon
to leave the factories
to leave the factories
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A roboti će uskoro da napuste fabrike
05:23
and become part of our world,
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i da postanu deo našeg sveta,
05:25
become part of our workforce.
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deo naše radne snage.
05:27
So what I do in my day job
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Dakle, moj dnevni posao
05:28
is actually create tools that integrate
data for entire countries
data for entire countries
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je zapravo stvaranje oruđa koja integrišu
podatke celokupnih država
podatke celokupnih država
05:32
so that we can ultimately have
the foundations that we need
the foundations that we need
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kako bismo na kraju imali potrebne osnove
05:36
for a future in which we need
to also manage those machines.
to also manage those machines.
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za budućnost u kojoj moramo
i da upravljamo tim mašinama.
i da upravljamo tim mašinama.
05:41
But today, I'm not here
to talk to you about these tools
to talk to you about these tools
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Međutim, danas nisam ovde
da vam pričam o tim oruđima
da vam pričam o tim oruđima
05:44
that integrate data for countries.
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koja integrišu državne podatke,
05:46
But I'm here to talk to you
about another idea
about another idea
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nego sam ovde da govorim
o jednoj drugoj ideji
o jednoj drugoj ideji
05:49
that might help us think about how to use
artificial intelligence in democracy.
artificial intelligence in democracy.
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koja bi nam mogla pomoći u razmišljanju
kako da koristimo
veštačku inteligenciju u demokratiji.
veštačku inteligenciju u demokratiji.
05:53
Because the tools that I build
are designed for executive decisions.
are designed for executive decisions.
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Jer su oruđa koja sam napravio
dizajnirana za izvršne odluke.
dizajnirana za izvršne odluke.
05:58
These are decisions that can be cast
in some sort of term of objectivity --
in some sort of term of objectivity --
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To su odluke koje mogu da se donesu
u nekom obliku objektivnosti -
u nekom obliku objektivnosti -
06:02
public investment decisions.
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odluke o javnim investicijama.
06:04
But there are decisions
that are legislative,
that are legislative,
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Međutim, postoje zakonodavne odluke,
06:07
and these decisions that are legislative
require communication among people
require communication among people
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a te zakonodavne odluke
zahtevaju komunikaciju među ljudima
zahtevaju komunikaciju među ljudima
06:11
that have different points of view,
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koji imaju različite tačke gledišta,
06:13
require participation, require debate,
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zahtevaju učešće, debatu,
06:15
require deliberation.
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zahtevaju razmatranje.
06:18
And for a long time,
we have thought that, well,
we have thought that, well,
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Dugo vremena smo smatrali da,
kako bismo unapredili demokratiju,
zapravo nam je potrebno više komunikacije.
zapravo nam je potrebno više komunikacije.
06:21
what we need to improve democracy
is actually more communication.
is actually more communication.
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06:24
So all of the technologies that we have
advanced in the context of democracy,
advanced in the context of democracy,
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Pa su sve tehnologije koje smo unapredili
u tom kontekstu demokratije,
u tom kontekstu demokratije,
bilo da se radi o novinama
ili društvenim mrežama,
ili društvenim mrežama,
06:28
whether they are newspapers
or whether it is social media,
or whether it is social media,
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06:31
have tried to provide us
with more communication.
with more communication.
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pokušale da nam obezbede
više komunikacije.
više komunikacije.
06:34
But we've been down that rabbit hole,
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Ali već smo prošli tu zamku
i znamo da to neće da reši problem.
06:35
and we know that's not
what's going to solve the problem.
what's going to solve the problem.
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Jer se ne radi o problemu u komunikaciji,
06:38
Because it's not a communication problem,
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radi se o problemu kognitivnog opsega.
06:40
it's a cognitive bandwidth problem.
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06:42
So if the problem is one
of cognitive bandwidth,
of cognitive bandwidth,
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Ako se radi o problemu
kognitivnog opsega,
kognitivnog opsega,
06:44
well, adding more communication to people
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dodavanje više komunikacije među ljudima
06:47
is not going to be
what's going to solve it.
what's going to solve it.
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neće rešiti problem.
06:50
What we are going to need instead
is to have other technologies
is to have other technologies
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Umesto toga će nam biti
potrebne nove tehnologije,
potrebne nove tehnologije,
06:53
that help us deal with
some of the communication
some of the communication
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koje će nam pomoći da se rešimo
dela ove komunikacije
dela ove komunikacije
06:56
that we are overloaded with.
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kojom smo zatrpani.
06:58
Think of, like, a little avatar,
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Zamislite na primer, malog avatara,
07:00
a software agent,
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softverskog agenta,
07:01
a digital Jiminy Cricket --
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digitalnog cvrčka iz Pinokija, Džiminija -
07:03
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:05
that basically is able
to answer things on your behalf.
to answer things on your behalf.
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koji je u stanju da odgovara u vaše ime.
07:09
And if we had that technology,
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Ako bismo imali tu tehnologiju,
07:11
we would be able to offload
some of the communication
some of the communication
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bili bismo u stanju da se oslobodimo
dela te komunikacije,
dela te komunikacije,
07:14
and help, maybe, make better decisions
or decisions at a larger scale.
or decisions at a larger scale.
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i možda pomognemo donošenju
boljih odluka ili odluka većeg obima.
boljih odluka ili odluka većeg obima.
07:18
And the thing is that the idea
of software agents is also not new.
of software agents is also not new.
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Stvar je u tome da ideja
o softverskim agentima nije nova.
o softverskim agentima nije nova.
07:22
We already use them all the time.
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Već ih stalno koristimo.
07:25
We use software agents
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Koristimo softverske agente
07:26
to choose the way that we're going
to drive to a certain location,
to drive to a certain location,
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da odlučimo put kojim ćemo
da vozimo do određene lokacije,
da vozimo do određene lokacije,
07:31
the music that we're going to listen to
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koju ćemo muziku slušati,
07:33
or to get suggestions
for the next books that we should read.
for the next books that we should read.
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ili da nam preporuče sledeću knjigu
koju bi trebalo da pročitamo.
koju bi trebalo da pročitamo.
07:37
So there is an obvious idea
in the 21st century
in the 21st century
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Dakle, postoji očigledna ideja u 21. veku
07:40
that was as obvious as the idea
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koja je jednako očigledna kao i ideja
07:43
of putting together a steam engine
with a loom at the time of Jacquard.
with a loom at the time of Jacquard.
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da se sastave parni motor
i razboj u Žakardovo vreme.
i razboj u Žakardovo vreme.
07:49
And that idea is combining
direct democracy with software agents.
direct democracy with software agents.
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A ta ideja je kombinovanje direktne
demokratije i softverskih agenata.
demokratije i softverskih agenata.
07:54
Imagine, for a second, a world
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Zamislite za trenutak svet
07:56
in which, instead of having
a representative that represents you
a representative that represents you
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u kome, umesto što imate
zastupnika koji zastupa
zastupnika koji zastupa
08:00
and millions of other people,
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vas i milione drugih ljudi,
08:01
you can have a representative
that represents only you,
that represents only you,
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možete da imate zastupnika
koji zastupa samo vas,
koji zastupa samo vas,
08:05
with your nuanced political views --
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sa vašim nijansiranim
političkim stavovima -
političkim stavovima -
08:07
that weird combination
of libertarian and liberal
of libertarian and liberal
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tu čudnu kombinaciju
libertarijanca i liberala,
libertarijanca i liberala,
08:11
and maybe a little bit
conservative on some issues
conservative on some issues
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i možda po nekim pitanjima
malo konzervativca,
malo konzervativca,
a po nekim drugim, vrlo progresivnog.
08:13
and maybe very progressive on others.
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08:15
Politicians nowadays are packages,
and they're full of compromises.
and they're full of compromises.
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Današnji političari su paketi
i puni su kompromisa.
i puni su kompromisa.
08:18
But you might have someone
that can represent only you,
that can represent only you,
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Međutim, možete da imate nekoga
ko može da predstavlja samo vas,
ko može da predstavlja samo vas,
08:22
if you are willing to give up the idea
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ako ste spremni da odustanete od ideje
08:24
that that representative is a human.
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da je zastupnik ljudsko biće.
08:27
If that representative
is a software agent,
is a software agent,
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Da je taj zastupnik softverski agent,
08:29
we could have a senate that has
as many senators as we have citizens.
as many senators as we have citizens.
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mogli bismo da imamo senat koji bi imao
onoliko senatora koliko imamo stanovnika.
onoliko senatora koliko imamo stanovnika.
08:33
And those senators are going to be able
to read every bill
to read every bill
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A ti senatori bi bili u stanju
da čitaju svaki predlog zakona,
da čitaju svaki predlog zakona,
08:36
and they're going to be able
to vote on each one of them.
to vote on each one of them.
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i da glasaju o svakom od njih.
08:39
So there's an obvious idea
that maybe we want to consider.
that maybe we want to consider.
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Dakle, imamo očiglednu ideju
koju bismo možda želeli da razmotrimo.
koju bismo možda želeli da razmotrimo.
08:42
But I understand that in this day and age,
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Međutim, razumem da u današnje vreme
08:45
this idea might be quite scary.
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ova ideja može biti prilično zastrašujuća.
08:48
In fact, thinking of a robot
coming from the future
coming from the future
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U stvari, razmišljati o robotu
koji dolazi iz budućnosti
koji dolazi iz budućnosti
08:51
to help us run our governments
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da nam pomogne da vodimo države
08:53
sounds terrifying.
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zvuči zastrašujuće.
08:56
But we've been there before.
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Međutim, već smo to doživeli.
08:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:59
And actually he was quite a nice guy.
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I zapravo je bio prilično fin momak.
09:03
So what would the Jacquard loom
version of this idea look like?
version of this idea look like?
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Kako bi Žakardova ideja razboja
u ovoj verziji izgledala?
u ovoj verziji izgledala?
09:10
It would be a very simple system.
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To bi bio veoma jednostavan sistem.
09:12
Imagine a system that you log in
and you create your avatar,
and you create your avatar,
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Zamislite sistem u koji se ulogujete
i napravite svoj avatar,
i napravite svoj avatar,
09:15
and then you're going
to start training your avatar.
to start training your avatar.
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a potom počinjete
da obučavate svog avatara.
da obučavate svog avatara.
09:18
So you can provide your avatar
with your reading habits,
with your reading habits,
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Možete da prenesete na vaš avatar
soptvene čitalačke skolonosti,
soptvene čitalačke skolonosti,
09:20
or connect it to your social media,
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ili da ga povežete
sa vašim društvenim mrežama,
sa vašim društvenim mrežama,
09:22
or you can connect it to other data,
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ili da ga povežete s drugim podacima,
09:25
for example by taking
psychological tests.
psychological tests.
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na primer, rešavajući psihološke testove.
09:27
And the nice thing about this
is that there's no deception.
is that there's no deception.
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Dobra stvar kod ovoga
je ta što nema obmane.
je ta što nema obmane.
09:30
You are not providing data to communicate
with your friends and family
with your friends and family
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Ne dajete podatke kako biste komunicirali
sa prijateljima i porodicom,
sa prijateljima i porodicom,
09:33
that then gets used in a political system.
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a da se to kasnije koristi
u političkom sistemu.
u političkom sistemu.
09:36
You are providing data to a system
that is designed to be used
that is designed to be used
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Pružate podatke sistemu
koji je osmišljen da se koristi
koji je osmišljen da se koristi
09:40
to make political decisions
on your behalf.
on your behalf.
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kako bi donosio
političke odluke u vaše ime.
političke odluke u vaše ime.
09:43
Then you take that data and you choose
a training algorithm,
a training algorithm,
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Potom uzmete te podatke
i odaberete algoritam za obuku,
i odaberete algoritam za obuku,
09:47
because it's an open marketplace
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jer se radi o otvorenom tržištu,
09:48
in which different people
can submit different algorithms
can submit different algorithms
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u kome različiti ljudi
mogu da prilože različite algoritme
mogu da prilože različite algoritme
09:51
to predict how you're going to vote,
based on the data you have provided.
based on the data you have provided.
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kako bi predvideli kako ćete da glasate
na osnovu podataka koje ste ponudili.
na osnovu podataka koje ste ponudili.
09:56
And the system is open,
so nobody controls the algorithms;
so nobody controls the algorithms;
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A sistem je otvoren,
dakle, niko ne kontroliše algoritme;
dakle, niko ne kontroliše algoritme;
09:59
there are algorithms
that become more popular
that become more popular
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tu su algoritmi koji će biti popularniji
i drugi koji će da budu manje popularni.
i drugi koji će da budu manje popularni.
10:01
and others that become less popular.
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Naposletku, možete da revidirate sistem.
10:03
Eventually, you can audit the system.
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10:05
You can see how your avatar is working.
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Možete da vidite
kako vaš avatar funkcioniše.
kako vaš avatar funkcioniše.
10:07
If you like it,
you can leave it on autopilot.
you can leave it on autopilot.
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Ako vam se dopada,
stavite ga na sistem autopilota.
stavite ga na sistem autopilota.
10:09
If you want to be
a little more controlling,
a little more controlling,
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Ako želite da imate malo veću kontrolu,
10:11
you can actually choose that they ask you
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možete zapravo da odaberete da vas pitaju
kad god treba da donesu neku odluku,
kad god treba da donesu neku odluku,
10:13
every time they're going
to make a decision,
to make a decision,
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ili možete da budete negde u sredini.
10:15
or you can be anywhere in between.
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Jedan od razloga zašto
tako malo koristimo demokratiju
tako malo koristimo demokratiju
10:17
One of the reasons
why we use democracy so little
why we use democracy so little
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je možda taj što demokratija
ima veoma loš korisnički pristup.
ima veoma loš korisnički pristup.
10:19
may be because democracy
has a very bad user interface.
has a very bad user interface.
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10:23
And if we improve the user
interface of democracy,
interface of democracy,
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Ako bismo unapredili
korisnički pristup demokratije,
korisnički pristup demokratije,
10:25
we might be able to use it more.
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možda bismo mogli da je više koristimo.
10:28
Of course, there's a lot of questions
that you might have.
that you might have.
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Naravno, verovatno imate gomilu pitanja.
10:32
Well, how do you train these avatars?
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Kako da obučavate ove avatare?
10:34
How do you keep the data secure?
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Kako da vaši podaci budu bezbedni?
10:36
How do you keep the systems
distributed and auditable?
distributed and auditable?
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Kako da vaš sistem bude
raspodeljen i podložan reviziji?
raspodeljen i podložan reviziji?
10:39
How about my grandmother,
who's 80 years old
who's 80 years old
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Šta je sa mojom bakom koja ima 80 godina
10:41
and doesn't know how to use the internet?
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i ne zna kako da koristi internet?
10:44
Trust me, I've heard them all.
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Verujte mi, sva ta pitanja sam čuo.
10:46
So when you think about an idea like this,
you have to beware of pessimists
you have to beware of pessimists
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Kada razmišljate o ovakvoj ideji,
morate da se pazite pesimista,
morate da se pazite pesimista,
10:51
because they are known to have
a problem for every solution.
a problem for every solution.
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jer su poznati po tome što imaju
problem za svako rešenje.
problem za svako rešenje.
10:55
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:57
So I want to invite you to think
about the bigger ideas.
about the bigger ideas.
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Želim da vas pozovem
da razmišljate o većim idejama.
da razmišljate o većim idejama.
11:00
The questions I just showed you
are little ideas
are little ideas
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Pitanja koja sam vam
upravo pokazao su male ideje,
upravo pokazao su male ideje,
11:03
because they are questions
about how this would not work.
about how this would not work.
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jer se radi o pitanjima
zašto ovo ne bi funkcionisalo.
zašto ovo ne bi funkcionisalo.
11:07
The big ideas are ideas of:
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1981
Velike ideje su:
11:09
What else can you do with this
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šta još možemo da uradimo s ovim,
11:11
if this would happen to work?
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ukoliko bi ovo funkcionisalo?
11:13
And one of those ideas is,
well, who writes the laws?
well, who writes the laws?
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A jedna od tih ideja je: ko piše zakone?
11:17
In the beginning, we could have
the avatars that we already have,
the avatars that we already have,
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U početku bismo mogli da imamo
avatare koje već imamo,
avatare koje već imamo,
11:22
voting on laws that are written
by the senators or politicians
by the senators or politicians
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koji glasaju za zakone koje su pisali
senatori ili političari
senatori ili političari
11:25
that we already have.
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koje već imamo.
11:27
But if this were to work,
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Međutim, ako bi ovo proradilo,
11:29
you could write an algorithm
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mogli biste da napišete algoritam
11:32
that could try to write a law
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koji bi pokušao da napiše zakon
11:34
that would get a certain
percentage of approval,
percentage of approval,
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koji bi dobio određen procenat podrške,
11:36
and you could reverse the process.
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i mogli biste da obrnete proces.
11:38
Now, you might think that this idea
is ludicrous and we should not do it,
is ludicrous and we should not do it,
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Možda smatrate da je ova ideja smešna
i da ne bi trebalo to da radimo,
i da ne bi trebalo to da radimo,
11:42
but you cannot deny that it's an idea
that is only possible
that is only possible
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ali ne možete da negirate
da je ova ideja jedino moguća
da je ova ideja jedino moguća
11:45
in a world in which direct democracy
and software agents
and software agents
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u svetu u kome su direktna demokratija
i softverski agenti
i softverski agenti
11:48
are a viable form of participation.
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održivi oblici učešća.
11:52
So how do we start the revolution?
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Kako da otpočnemo revoluciju?
11:56
We don't start this revolution
with picket fences or protests
with picket fences or protests
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Ne započinjemo ovu revoluciju
tarabama ili protestima,
tarabama ili protestima,
11:59
or by demanding our current politicians
to be changed into robots.
to be changed into robots.
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ili zahtevajući od trenutnih političara
da se pretvore u robote.
da se pretvore u robote.
12:03
That's not going to work.
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To neće funkcionisati.
12:05
This is much more simple,
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Ovo je mnogo jednostavnije,
12:06
much slower
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mnogo sporije
12:08
and much more humble.
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i mnogo skromnije.
12:09
We start this revolution by creating
simple systems like this in grad schools,
simple systems like this in grad schools,
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Počinjemo revoluciju stvarajući
proste sisteme poput ovog na fakultetima,
proste sisteme poput ovog na fakultetima,
12:13
in libraries, in nonprofits.
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ili u bibliotekama,
neprofitnim organizacijama.
neprofitnim organizacijama.
12:16
And we try to figure out
all of those little questions
all of those little questions
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I pokušavamo da shvatimo
sva ta mala pitanja,
sva ta mala pitanja,
12:18
and those little problems
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te male probleme,
12:20
that we're going to have to figure out
to make this idea something viable,
to make this idea something viable,
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koje ćemo morati da rešimo
da bi ova ideja postala održiva,
da bi ova ideja postala održiva,
12:23
to make this idea something
that we can trust.
that we can trust.
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kako bi ova ideja postala
nešto čemu možemo verovati.
nešto čemu možemo verovati.
12:26
And as we create those systems that have
a hundred people, a thousand people,
a hundred people, a thousand people,
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Kako stvaramo ove sisteme
sa stotinama, hiljadama,
sa stotinama, hiljadama,
12:29
a hundred thousand people voting
in ways that are not politically binding,
in ways that are not politically binding,
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stotinama hiljada ljudi koji glasaju
na načine koji nisu politički obavezujući,
na načine koji nisu politički obavezujući,
12:33
we're going to develop trust in this idea,
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2018
izgradićemo poverenje u ovu ideju,
12:35
the world is going to change,
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svet će se promeniti,
12:37
and those that are as little
as my daughter is right now
as my daughter is right now
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a oni koji su mladi, kao moja ćerka danas,
12:40
are going to grow up.
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će odrasti.
12:42
And by the time my daughter is my age,
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A kad moja ćerka bude mojih godina,
12:44
maybe this idea, that I know
today is very crazy,
today is very crazy,
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možda će ova ideja, za koju znam
da danas zvuči sumanuto,
da danas zvuči sumanuto,
12:49
might not be crazy to her
and to her friends.
and to her friends.
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njoj i njenim prijateljima
neće biti sumanuta.
neće biti sumanuta.
12:53
And at that point,
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A u tom trenutku,
12:55
we will be at the end of our history,
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mi ćemo biti na kraju naše istorije,
12:58
but they will be
at the beginning of theirs.
at the beginning of theirs.
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ali oni će biti na početku njihove.
13:01
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
13:02
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
César Hidalgo - PhysicistCésar Hidalgo studies how teams, cities and nations learn.
Why you should listen
César A. Hidalgo leads the Collective Learning group at The MIT Media Lab and is an associate professor of media arts and sciences at MIT. Hidalgo's work focuses on understanding how teams, organizations, cities and nations learn. At the Collective Learning group, Hidalgo develops software tools to facilitate learning in organizations. His academic publications have been cited more than 10,000 times, and his online systems, including the Observatory of Economic Complexity and DataUSA, have received more than 100 million views and numerous awards.
Hidalgo's latest book, Why Information Grows (2015), has been translated into 10+ languages. He is also the co-author of The Atlas of Economic Complexity (2014) and a co-founder of Datawheel LLC, a company that has professionalized the creation of large data visualization engines.
César Hidalgo | Speaker | TED.com