Mission Blue Voyage
Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline
丹尼尔.保利：海洋的变动基准线
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鱼越变越小的现象表明，在我们这个时代，海洋的状况已恶化。而丹尼尔.保利告诉我们，每次基准线下降，我们就把它说成是新的“常态”。究竟到何时，我们才停止往下降低标准。
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean. Full bio
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm going to speak
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我要讲的是
00:14
about a tiny, little idea.
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一个很小概念
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And this is about shifting baseline.
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与基准线的变动有关
00:21
And because the idea can be explained in one minute,
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这个概念一分钟就能讲完了
00:25
I will tell you three stories before
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所以我先讲三个故事
00:28
to fill in the time.
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来混时间
00:30
And the first story
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第一个故事
00:32
is about Charles Darwin, one of my heroes.
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讲的是达尔文 我的偶像之一
00:35
And he was here, as you well know, in '35.
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他曾来过这里 大家都知道 那是1935年
00:38
And you'd think he was chasing finches,
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你们可能以为他在追鸟雀
00:40
but he wasn't.
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其实不是
00:42
He was actually collecting fish.
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他是在捕鱼
00:44
And he described one of them
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他说一条鱼
00:46
as very "common."
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很”常见“
00:48
This was the sailfin grouper.
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这是一种石斑鱼
00:50
A big fishery was run on it
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这种鱼被大量捕捉
00:52
until the '80s.
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到八十年代
00:55
Now the fish is on the IUCN Red List.
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现在 这种鱼已经被列入国际自然保护联盟的红色名录
00:58
Now this story,
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这个故事
01:00
we have heard it lots of times
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我们已经听过很多遍了
01:03
on Galapagos and other places,
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在加拉帕戈斯群岛和其他地方都听过
01:05
so there is nothing particular about it.
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没什么新鲜的
01:08
But the point is, we still come to Galapagos.
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问题在于 我们现在还会去加拉帕戈斯群岛
01:11
We still think it is pristine.
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还认为那是还是原生态
01:14
The brochures still say
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旅游宣传册上还说
01:17
it is untouched.
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这里未经开发
01:19
So what happens here?
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这里究竟是什么情况
01:22
The second story, also to illustrate another concept,
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第二个故事 讲的是另一个概念
01:25
is called shifting waistline.
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叫做变动的"腰准线"
01:27
(Laughter)
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（众人笑）
01:30
Because I was there in '71,
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1971年的时候 我在那里
01:32
studying a lagoon in West Africa.
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考察西非的一片西湖
01:34
I was there because I grew up in Europe
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我去那里是因为我在欧洲长大
01:37
and I wanted later to work in Africa.
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我想以后到非洲工作
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And I thought I could blend in.
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我以为我可以融入当地社会
01:41
And I got a big sunburn,
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我还被晒伤了一大块
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and I was convinced that I was really not from there.
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结果我发现我的确不是非洲来的
01:46
This was my first sunburn.
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那是我第一次被晒伤
01:48
And the lagoon
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这片泻湖
01:51
was surrounded by palm trees,
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被棕榈树环绕
01:53
as you can see, and a few mangrove.
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你们可以看到一些红树
01:55
And it had tilapia
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这里有罗非鱼
01:57
about 20 centimeters,
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大概20厘米长
01:59
a species of tilapia called blackchin tilapia.
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这种罗非鱼叫黑颚罗非鱼
02:01
And the fisheries for this tilapia
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人们捕捞罗非鱼
02:03
sustained lots of fish and they had a good time
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这让许多鱼存活了下来 它们活得很好
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and they earned more than average
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渔业的收入在加纳
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in Ghana.
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高出平均水平
02:10
When I went there 27 years later,
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二十七年之后 我回到那里
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the fish had shrunk to half of their size.
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这种鱼的大小缩减了一半
02:16
They were maturing at five centimeters.
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它们成年时只有五厘米长
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They had been pushed genetically.
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它们的发育在遗传上被改变了
02:20
There were still fishes.
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那里还有鱼
02:22
They were still kind of happy.
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它们还是活得不错
02:24
And the fish also were happy to be there.
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鱼儿们也很喜欢生活在那里
02:29
So nothing has changed,
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似乎没什么变化
02:31
but everything has changed.
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但其实 一切都改变了
02:33
My third little story
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第三个故事讲的是
02:35
is that I was an accomplice
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将拖网捕捞
02:37
in the introduction of trawling
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引入非洲东南部的
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in Southeast Asia.
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有我一份
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In the '70s -- well, beginning in the '60s --
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在七十年代--其实是六十年代初期--
02:44
Europe did lots of development projects.
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欧洲进行了许多发展项目
02:47
Fish development
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渔业发展
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meant imposing on countries
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意味着强迫
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that had already 100,000 fishers
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渔民人数在达十万人的国家
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to impose on them industrial fishing.
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进行工业捕鱼
02:57
And this boat, quite ugly,
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这艘船 挺难看的
02:59
is called the Mutiara 4.
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叫Mutiara 4号
03:01
And I went sailing on it,
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我乘上这艘船
03:03
and we did surveys
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我们一路做调查
03:06
throughout the southern South China sea
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沿着中国南海
03:09
and especially the Java Sea.
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尤其是爪哇海
03:11
And what we caught,
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我们捕捞到了
03:13
we didn't have words for it.
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叫不出名字的东西
03:15
What we caught, I know now,
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现在我知道了 我们捞到的
03:18
is the bottom of the sea.
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是海底的生物
03:20
And 90 percent of our catch
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百分之九十
03:22
were sponges,
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是海绵
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other animals that are fixed on the bottom.
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以及其他固定在海底的动物
03:27
And actually most of the fish,
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实际上 大多数鱼
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they are a little spot on the debris,
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就是那堆杂物中的小点
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the piles of debris, were coral reef fish.
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它们是生活在珊瑚礁中的鱼
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Essentially the bottom of the sea came onto the deck
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海底被端上了甲板
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and then was thrown down.
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后来又被扔下去
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And these pictures are extraordinary
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这些照片意义非凡
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because this transition is very rapid.
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因为这个变化过程非常快
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Within a year, you do a survey
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不到一年 你再进行调查
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and then commercial fishing begins.
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接着渔业又开始了
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The bottom is transformed
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海底发生了变化
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from, in this case, a hard bottom or soft coral
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坚硬的海底或柔软的珊瑚
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into a muddy mess.
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变成了一滩泥泞
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This is a dead turtle.
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这是一只死了的海龟
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They were not eaten, they were thrown away because they were dead.
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它们没有被吃掉 而是因为死了而被扔掉的
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And one time we caught a live one.
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有一次 我们捉到一只活的
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It was not drowned yet.
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它还没有淹死
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And then they wanted to kill it because it was good to eat.
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他们想杀掉它 因为海龟肉很美味
04:09
This mountain of debris
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这堆积如山的杂物
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is actually collected by fishers
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是渔民们捞上来的
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every time they go
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他们每次进入未经捕捞的海域
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into an area that's never been fished.
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都能捞到这些东西
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But it's not documented.
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而这并没有被记录在案
04:21
We transform the world,
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我们改变了世界
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but we don't remember it.
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但却不认账
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We adjust our baseline
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我们把基准线
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to the new level,
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调整到一个新水平
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and we don't recall what was there.
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而把之前的水平抛在脑后
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If you generalize this,
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归纳一下
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something like this happens.
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就会出现这样的情况
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You have on the y axis some good thing:
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Y轴代表美好的事物
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biodiversity, numbers of orca,
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生物多样性 逆戟鲸的数量
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the greenness of your country, the water supply.
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你的国家的绿化 水资源供应
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And over time it changes --
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随着时间的变化而变化
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it changes
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之所以变化
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because people do things, or naturally.
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是因为人们的活动或自然的变化
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Every generation
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每代人
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will use the images
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都会
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that they got at the beginning of their conscious lives
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以他们有意识之初的画面
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as a standard
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作为标准
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and will extrapolate forward.
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并往前推测
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And the difference then,
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所产生的差距
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they perceive as a loss.
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他们视为一种损失
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But they don't perceive what happened before as a loss.
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但他们没有把之前发生的事情视为一种损失
05:11
You can have a succession of changes.
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一系列变化发生了
05:13
At the end you want to sustain
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最后你希望
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miserable leftovers.
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保住最后可怜的幸存者
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And that, to a large extent, is what we want to do now.
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而这在很大程度上 就是我们现在要做的
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We want to sustain things that are gone
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我们想要保护那些消失殆尽的东西
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or things that are not the way they were.
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或者那些发生了变化的东西
05:29
Now one should think
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现在人们应当认为
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this problem affected people
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在一个弱肉强食的社会中
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certainly when in predatory societies,
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这个问题当然会对人产生影响
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they killed animals
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他们捕杀动物
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and they didn't know they had done so
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而直到几代人之后
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after a few generations.
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才意识到他们的所作所为
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Because, obviously,
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因为 很显然
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an animal that is very abundant,
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在一种动物灭绝
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before it gets extinct,
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或濒临灭绝前
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it becomes rare.
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这种动物的数量还是很多的
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So you don't lose abundant animals.
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所以你不会失去数量多的动物物种
06:00
You always lose rare animals.
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你失去的是珍稀动物
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And therefore they're not perceived
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所以这些动物的消失
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as a big loss.
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不会被视为重大损失
06:06
Over time,
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随着时间推移
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we concentrate on large animals,
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我们关注大型动物
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and in a sea that means the big fish.
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在海洋中 这指的是大型鱼类
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They become rarer because we fish them.
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我们捕捞鱼类致使它们的数量越来越少
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Over time we have a few fish left
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一段时间时候 我们只剩下少数鱼了
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and we think this is the baseline.
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我们就把这个数量看做基准线
06:20
And the question is,
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问题是
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why do people accept this?
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人们为什么对此安之若素呢
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Well because they don't know that it was different.
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这是因为他们不知道情况变化了
06:30
And in fact, lots of people, scientists,
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事实上 许多人 尤其是科学家
06:33
will contest that it was really different.
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反对这种意见
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And they will contest this
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他们反对
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because the evidence
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是因为
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presented in an earlier mode
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早前的分析模型中所呈现的证据方式
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is not in the way
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并不是
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they would like the evidence presented.
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他们想要的呈现方式
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For example,
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举个例子
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the anecdote that some present,
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有人讲了一个故事
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as Captain so-and-so
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说某某船长
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observed lots of fish in this area
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发现这个地区有很多鱼
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cannot be used
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这个故事不能拿来当证据
07:00
or is usually not utilized by fishery scientists,
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渔业科学家通常也不会采纳这个故事
07:03
because it's not "scientific."
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因为它不够“科学”
07:05
So you have a situation
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这就造成了一个情况：
07:07
where people don't know the past,
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人们对过去一无所知
07:10
even though we live in literate societies,
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尽管 我们生活在文明社会中
07:13
because they don't trust
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因为他们不相信
07:15
the sources of the past.
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关于过去的信息来源
07:18
And hence, the enormous role
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他们也不了解
07:21
that a marine protected area can play.
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一个海洋保护区域的重大角色
07:23
Because with marine protected areas,
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因为 我们实际上是通过海洋保护区
07:26
we actually recreate the past.
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来重塑过去
07:30
We recreate the past that people cannot conceive
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我们重塑了过去 让人们无法设想过去的情况
07:33
because the baseline has shifted
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因为基准线变动了
07:35
and is extremely low.
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变得极低
07:37
That is for people
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这适用于
07:39
who can see a marine protected area
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那些看到一片海洋保护区的人
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and who can benefit
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和那些
07:46
from the insight that it provides,
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从其中的深层意义获益的人
07:49
which enables them to reset their baseline.
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这让他们有能力重置他们的基准线
07:53
How about the people who can't do that
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那么那些没有能力这么做的人呢
07:55
because they have no access --
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他们没法知道
07:57
the people in the Midwest for example?
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例如中西部地区的人们
08:00
There I think
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我想
08:02
that the arts and film
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艺术作品和电影
08:04
can perhaps fill the gap,
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可以填补这个空缺
08:06
and simulation.
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还有原态模拟
08:08
This is a simulation of Chesapeake Bay.
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这是切萨皮克湾的原态模拟
08:11
There were gray whales in Chesapeake Bay a long time ago --
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很久以前 有灰鲸生活在切萨皮克湾
08:13
500 years ago.
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那是五百年前
08:15
And you will have noticed that the hues and tones
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你会注意到上面的色调
08:18
are like "Avatar."
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酷似“阿凡达”
08:20
(Laughter)
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（众人笑）
08:22
And if you think about "Avatar,"
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一想到“阿凡达”
08:24
if you think of why people were so touched by it --
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一想到人们为何会为之动容
08:27
never mind the Pocahontas story --
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风中奇缘的故事就不说了
08:31
why so touched by the imagery?
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为何人们会被里面的画面所打动
08:35
Because it evokes something
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这是因为它激发了
08:38
that in a sense has been lost.
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我们遗失了的某样东西
08:40
And so my recommendation,
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我建议
08:42
it's the only one I will provide,
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这也是我唯一的建议
08:44
is for Cameron to do "Avatar II" underwater.
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希望卡梅隆的“阿凡达2”能在水下拍摄
08:49
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢大家
08:51
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologistDaniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.
Why you should listen
Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.
Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com