Mission Blue Voyage
Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline
丹尼爾．保立：海洋基準線的改變
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在我們有生之年，海洋生態系統逐漸衰退，魚的平均長度逐漸變小可以證明這一點。而如同丹尼爾．保立在藍色任務演講描述的，每當海洋基準線下降，我們就稱它為新的「正常」基準線。什麼時候我們才會停止向下調整這個基準線？
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean. Full bio
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm going to speak
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我將要談論
00:14
about a tiny, little idea.
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一個極細微的想法
00:17
And this is about shifting baseline.
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也就是關於海洋基準線的改變
00:21
And because the idea can be explained in one minute,
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因為這個想法可在一分鐘就講完
00:25
I will tell you three stories before
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所以我會先講三個故事
00:28
to fill in the time.
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來拖延時間
00:30
And the first story
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第一個故事
00:32
is about Charles Darwin, one of my heroes.
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與我心目中的英雄達爾文有關
00:35
And he was here, as you well know, in '35.
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如你們所知，1835年他在加拉帕戈斯群島進行研究
00:38
And you'd think he was chasing finches,
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你們以為他在追蹤雀類
00:40
but he wasn't.
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但事實並非如此
00:42
He was actually collecting fish.
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其實他是在收集魚類
00:44
And he described one of them
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有一個他紀錄為
00:46
as very "common."
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「常見」的物種
00:48
This was the sailfin grouper.
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帆鰭石斑（sailfin grouper）
00:50
A big fishery was run on it
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這種魚一直都是漁獲量大宗
00:52
until the '80s.
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至少在 1980 年代以前
00:55
Now the fish is on the IUCN Red List.
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現在，這種魚已被列在世界自然保護聯盟的瀕危物種紅色名單
00:58
Now this story,
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這個故事
01:00
we have heard it lots of times
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我們已經在加拉帕戈斯群島和其他地方
01:03
on Galapagos and other places,
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聽過很多次
01:05
so there is nothing particular about it.
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所以沒什麼特別的
01:08
But the point is, we still come to Galapagos.
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但重點是，我們仍前往加拉帕戈斯群島
01:11
We still think it is pristine.
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我們仍然認為它是原始的
01:14
The brochures still say
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旅遊折頁也說
01:17
it is untouched.
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這裡的生態未曾改變
01:19
So what happens here?
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所以到底發生什麼事了？
01:22
The second story, also to illustrate another concept,
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第二個故事，也可以用來說明另一個概念
01:25
is called shifting waistline.
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叫做腰圍變化
01:27
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
01:30
Because I was there in '71,
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我在 1971 年前往西非
01:32
studying a lagoon in West Africa.
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研究一個潟湖
01:34
I was there because I grew up in Europe
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我會到那裡去是因為我在歐洲長大
01:37
and I wanted later to work in Africa.
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希望之後能到非洲工作
01:39
And I thought I could blend in.
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我想我可以融入那個地方
01:41
And I got a big sunburn,
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但我遭受嚴重的曬傷
01:43
and I was convinced that I was really not from there.
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才明白原來自己並非來自那裡
01:46
This was my first sunburn.
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這是我第一次被曬傷
01:48
And the lagoon
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至於那個潟湖
01:51
was surrounded by palm trees,
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四周被棕櫚樹圍繞
01:53
as you can see, and a few mangrove.
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就像你們看到的，還有一些紅樹林
01:55
And it had tilapia
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潟湖裡有吳郭魚（非洲鯽魚）
01:57
about 20 centimeters,
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體長大約二十公分
01:59
a species of tilapia called blackchin tilapia.
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其中一種稱為黑頰非鯽
02:01
And the fisheries for this tilapia
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這種非洲鯽魚漁業
02:03
sustained lots of fish and they had a good time
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有段時期能維持大量捕撈，人們日子過的不錯
02:06
and they earned more than average
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他們收入高於
02:08
in Ghana.
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迦納平均所得
02:10
When I went there 27 years later,
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27 年後，我重訪當地
02:13
the fish had shrunk to half of their size.
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卻發現這種魚的體型縮減了一半
02:16
They were maturing at five centimeters.
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成魚的長度只有五公分
02:18
They had been pushed genetically.
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牠們已受基因演化的推動而改變
02:20
There were still fishes.
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潟湖中仍有魚類
02:22
They were still kind of happy.
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人們仍快樂地捕魚
02:24
And the fish also were happy to be there.
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魚也快樂地生活在那裡
02:29
So nothing has changed,
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什麼也沒變
02:31
but everything has changed.
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但其實一切都不同了
02:33
My third little story
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第三個小故事
02:35
is that I was an accomplice
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是關於我如何變成
02:37
in the introduction of trawling
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將拖網引進
02:39
in Southeast Asia.
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東南亞的共犯
02:41
In the '70s -- well, beginning in the '60s --
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在 70 年代，不，60 年代開始
02:44
Europe did lots of development projects.
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歐洲進行許多開發計畫
02:47
Fish development
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例如漁業開發
02:49
meant imposing on countries
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其實就是對於
02:51
that had already 100,000 fishers
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已有十萬漁民的國家施壓
02:54
to impose on them industrial fishing.
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強迫他們進行工業化的捕漁方式
02:57
And this boat, quite ugly,
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這艘醜醜的船
02:59
is called the Mutiara 4.
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名為「慕蒂亞拉4號」
03:01
And I went sailing on it,
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我搭乘這艘船出海
03:03
and we did surveys
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進行調查
03:06
throughout the southern South China sea
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範圍涵蓋南中國海的南部
03:09
and especially the Java Sea.
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特別是爪哇海
03:11
And what we caught,
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我們對於當時所捕獲到的
03:13
we didn't have words for it.
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毫無概念
03:15
What we caught, I know now,
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而我現在知道
03:18
is the bottom of the sea.
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我們所捕獲的其實是海洋底層
03:20
And 90 percent of our catch
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我們撈到的東西
03:22
were sponges,
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有九成是海綿
03:24
other animals that are fixed on the bottom.
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及其他附著於海底的動物
03:27
And actually most of the fish,
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事實上大多數魚類
03:29
they are a little spot on the debris,
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只佔這些殘渣的極小部份
03:31
the piles of debris, were coral reef fish.
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堆積如山的殘骸中有一些珊瑚礁魚類
03:34
Essentially the bottom of the sea came onto the deck
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基本上這等於將海底搬上甲板
03:36
and then was thrown down.
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然後隨意丟棄
03:38
And these pictures are extraordinary
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這些圖片相當驚人
03:41
because this transition is very rapid.
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因為轉變非常快
03:44
Within a year, you do a survey
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你在一年內做了一項調查
03:47
and then commercial fishing begins.
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然後開始進行商業性捕魚
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The bottom is transformed
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海底開始發生改變
03:51
from, in this case, a hard bottom or soft coral
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以這裡來說，一片堅硬的海底或軟質珊瑚
03:54
into a muddy mess.
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變成一灘爛泥
03:57
This is a dead turtle.
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這是一隻死去的海龜
03:59
They were not eaten, they were thrown away because they were dead.
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不是被捕食，而是因為已經死去便被丟棄
04:02
And one time we caught a live one.
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有一次我們抓到一隻活的
04:04
It was not drowned yet.
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牠還沒被淹死
04:06
And then they wanted to kill it because it was good to eat.
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人們想把美味的海龜殺來吃
04:09
This mountain of debris
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這些堆積如山的殘骸
04:12
is actually collected by fishers
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是由漁民收集的
04:15
every time they go
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每次出海
04:17
into an area that's never been fished.
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到尚未捕撈過的區域帶回來
04:19
But it's not documented.
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但從未被記錄下來
04:21
We transform the world,
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我們改變了世界
04:23
but we don't remember it.
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但卻不記得這些事
04:25
We adjust our baseline
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我們調整基準線
04:28
to the new level,
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到新的水平
04:30
and we don't recall what was there.
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但我們不記得過去曾經存在什麼
04:34
If you generalize this,
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如果你將這些做個總結
04:36
something like this happens.
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就會像這樣
04:38
You have on the y axis some good thing:
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Y軸是一些正面的事情
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biodiversity, numbers of orca,
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生物多樣性、虎鯨個數
04:44
the greenness of your country, the water supply.
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國家的綠化程度、水資源供給
04:47
And over time it changes --
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隨著時間推移
04:49
it changes
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情況發生改變
04:51
because people do things, or naturally.
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因為人們理所當然的行為而改變
04:53
Every generation
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每一代的人們
04:55
will use the images
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會用那些
04:57
that they got at the beginning of their conscious lives
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他們有感知的生命初始時的印象
05:00
as a standard
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作為基準
05:02
and will extrapolate forward.
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然後向前推論
05:04
And the difference then,
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將其中差異
05:06
they perceive as a loss.
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視為一項損失
05:08
But they don't perceive what happened before as a loss.
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但人們並沒有意識到在損失以前發生什麼事
05:11
You can have a succession of changes.
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你可以看到一個持續的變化
05:13
At the end you want to sustain
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到了最後你希望能保存
05:16
miserable leftovers.
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那些所剩無幾的剩餘物種
05:19
And that, to a large extent, is what we want to do now.
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就大方向來說，這就是我們正想做的
05:22
We want to sustain things that are gone
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我們想保存已消失
05:25
or things that are not the way they were.
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或不復原貌的事物
05:29
Now one should think
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我們應該思考
05:31
this problem affected people
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這個問題如何影響那些
05:33
certainly when in predatory societies,
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在獵食性社會的人
05:37
they killed animals
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他們捕獵動物
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and they didn't know they had done so
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而沒有意識到他們做了什麼
05:41
after a few generations.
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對後幾個世代造成了什麼改變
05:43
Because, obviously,
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因為，很明顯的
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an animal that is very abundant,
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每個物種的數量總是相當龐大
05:51
before it gets extinct,
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在牠們遭到滅絕
05:54
it becomes rare.
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變得稀有以前
05:57
So you don't lose abundant animals.
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所以數量豐富的動物不會消失
06:00
You always lose rare animals.
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會消失的總是稀有動物
06:02
And therefore they're not perceived
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所以人們也不會意識到
06:04
as a big loss.
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這個巨大損失
06:06
Over time,
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某一段時期
06:08
we concentrate on large animals,
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我們將注意力放在大型動物
06:10
and in a sea that means the big fish.
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在海洋中這意味著大型魚類
06:12
They become rarer because we fish them.
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大魚因我們的捕撈而越來越稀少
06:15
Over time we have a few fish left
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不久後，海裡只剩一點點魚
06:17
and we think this is the baseline.
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然後我們會以這個數量重訂基準線
06:20
And the question is,
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但問題是
06:22
why do people accept this?
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為什麼人們可以接受這種觀點
06:27
Well because they don't know that it was different.
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那是因為人們無法區分其中的差異
06:30
And in fact, lots of people, scientists,
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事實上，很多人，尤其是科學家
06:33
will contest that it was really different.
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會爭論那差異是很大的
06:35
And they will contest this
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他們會如此爭論
06:37
because the evidence
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是因為以早期模式
06:39
presented in an earlier mode
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提出的證據
06:44
is not in the way
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並不是他們希望的
06:47
they would like the evidence presented.
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證據呈現方式
06:49
For example,
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例如
06:51
the anecdote that some present,
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有些軼事說
06:53
as Captain so-and-so
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船長某某人
06:55
observed lots of fish in this area
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曾在這個區域觀察到大量魚類
06:58
cannot be used
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這樣的訊息無法被採用
07:00
or is usually not utilized by fishery scientists,
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或通常不會被魚類科學家採用
07:03
because it's not "scientific."
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因為那並不「科學」
07:05
So you have a situation
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所以現在的狀況是
07:07
where people don't know the past,
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人們對過去毫無所知
07:10
even though we live in literate societies,
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即使是生活在有文化的社會
07:13
because they don't trust
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因為他們不信任
07:15
the sources of the past.
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過去的訊息來源
07:18
And hence, the enormous role
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因此，在這裡
07:21
that a marine protected area can play.
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海洋保護區的角色就顯得很重要
07:23
Because with marine protected areas,
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一但有了海洋保護區
07:26
we actually recreate the past.
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我們可以重現過去
07:30
We recreate the past that people cannot conceive
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重現人們無法想像的過去
07:33
because the baseline has shifted
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因為現在的基準線已經改變
07:35
and is extremely low.
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轉移到極低的標準
07:37
That is for people
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這是為了讓可以
07:39
who can see a marine protected area
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看見海洋保護區的人們
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and who can benefit
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及藉由它提供的見識
07:46
from the insight that it provides,
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而獲益的人們
07:49
which enables them to reset their baseline.
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使他們能重設他們的基準線
07:53
How about the people who can't do that
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對於那些沒有機會
07:55
because they have no access --
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接近保護區的人們
07:57
the people in the Midwest for example?
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例如住在美國中西部的人們呢？
08:00
There I think
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我認為
08:02
that the arts and film
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透過藝術和電影
08:04
can perhaps fill the gap,
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或許可以彌補空缺
08:06
and simulation.
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甚至是模擬技術
08:08
This is a simulation of Chesapeake Bay.
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這是柴斯比克灣的模擬圖
08:11
There were gray whales in Chesapeake Bay a long time ago --
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顯示灰鯨在很久很久以前曾經生活在那裡
08:13
500 years ago.
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大約五百年前
08:15
And you will have noticed that the hues and tones
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然後你會發現這個色彩與色調
08:18
are like "Avatar."
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跟「阿凡達」的世界很像
08:20
(Laughter)
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（大笑）
08:22
And if you think about "Avatar,"
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讓我們想想「阿凡達」
08:24
if you think of why people were so touched by it --
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思考為何大家會對它深受感動
08:27
never mind the Pocahontas story --
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即使故事像風中奇緣一樣
08:31
why so touched by the imagery?
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為何人們看到這些景象還是如此感動
08:35
Because it evokes something
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因為那喚起了人們
08:38
that in a sense has been lost.
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對已經失去的事物的感受
08:40
And so my recommendation,
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所以我建議
08:42
it's the only one I will provide,
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我唯一要提供的建議是
08:44
is for Cameron to do "Avatar II" underwater.
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請卡麥隆在水底拍阿凡達第二集
08:49
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位
08:51
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologistDaniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.
Why you should listen
Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.
Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com