TEDGlobal 2012
Marc Goodman: A vision of crimes in the future
马克·古德曼：展望未来犯罪
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这个世界正变得越来越开放，这既令人憧憬，却也潜藏威胁。马克·古德曼为我们描绘了一个形势严峻的未来图景，在那里，科技的迅猛发展可能会放任犯罪进一步恶化。
Marc Goodman - Global Security Futurist
Marc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented. Full bio
Marc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I study the future
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我研究的是
00:19
of crime and terrorism,
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犯罪和恐怖主义的未来。
00:23
and frankly, I'm afraid.
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坦白地说，我感到害怕。
00:25
I'm afraid by what I see.
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我对我在研究中了解到的事情感到害怕。
00:27
I sincerely want to believe
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我真诚地希望自己能够相信
00:29
that technology can bring us
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科技可以带给我们
00:32
the techno-utopia that we've been promised,
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对我们的承诺中的科技乌托邦
00:35
but, you see,
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但是，你们看，
00:37
I've spent a career in law enforcement,
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我曾经度过了一段与执法有关的职业生涯，
00:40
and that's informed my perspective on things.
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而这让我对事物的看法有了新的认识。
00:43
I've been a street police officer,
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我曾经做过巡街警察，
00:44
an undercover investigator,
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卧底侦探，
00:46
a counter-terrorism strategist,
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反恐战略师，
00:48
and I've worked in more than 70 countries
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也曾经在全球超过70个国家
00:51
around the world.
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工作过。
00:52
I've had to see more than my fair share
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我不得不经历了比我应该遇到的更多的
00:54
of violence and the darker underbelly of society,
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暴力和社会阴暗面，
00:57
and that's informed my opinions.
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而正是这些影响了我的观点。
01:01
My work with criminals and terrorists
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我的工作会与罪犯和恐怖分子打交道
01:03
has actually been highly educational.
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这实际上是非常有教育意义的。
01:05
They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able
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他们教会了我很多，而我希望可以
01:08
to share some of these observations with you.
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与你们分享一些我所观察到的东西。
01:12
Today I'm going to show you the flip side
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今天我将展现给你们
01:14
of all those technologies that we marvel at,
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那些让我们感到惊奇的
01:18
the ones that we love.
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我们所爱的科技的另一面
01:20
In the hands of the TED community,
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如果科技由TDE社区掌控
01:22
these are awesome tools which will bring about
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那么它无疑是可以给我们的世界带来巨大改变的
01:25
great change for our world,
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不可思议的工具，
01:28
but in the hands of suicide bombers,
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但是当科技被握于人肉炸弹袭击者的手中，
01:31
the future can look quite different.
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我们的未来就非常不一样了。
01:34
I started observing
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当我还是一个年轻的巡逻警察时，
01:37
technology and how criminals were using it
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我便开始观察科技以及
01:38
as a young patrol officer.
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罪犯们利用科技的方式。
01:40
In those days, this was the height of technology.
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在那个时代，这就是科技的高度了。
01:45
Laugh though you will,
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你们尽管笑吧，
01:46
all the drug dealers and gang members
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所有我对付过的毒贩和帮派成员
01:48
with whom I dealt had one of these
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都远比我认识的任何一位警察
01:50
long before any police officer I knew did.
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更早地拥有了其中一样。
01:54
Twenty years later, criminals are still using
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20年过去了，罪犯们仍然在使用
01:57
mobile phones, but they're also building
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移动电话。但与此同时，他们也在建造
02:01
their own mobile phone networks,
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属于他们自己的移动电话网络，
02:03
like this one, which has been deployed
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比如这一个，就已经被贩毒团伙部署在了
02:06
in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.
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墨西哥全部的31个州之中。
02:09
They have a national encrypted
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他们还拥有一套全国性的加密的
02:12
radio communications system.
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无线电通信系统。
02:15
Think about that.
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大家可以认真想想。
02:17
Think about the innovation that went into that.
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想想投注于这个系统中的创造革新。
02:20
Think about the infrastructure to build it.
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想想构建这个系统所需的基础设施。
02:23
And then think about this:
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然后再想想这个：
02:25
Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)
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为什么我在旧金山收不到手机信号呢？（笑声）
02:29
How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)
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这怎么可能呢？（笑声）这完全没有道理啊。（掌声）
02:34
We consistently underestimate
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我们一直低估了
02:35
what criminals and terrorists can do.
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罪犯和恐怖分子能做到的事情。
02:38
Technology has made our world
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科技已经让我们的世界
02:40
increasingly open, and for the most part,
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越来越开放。当然，在大多数情况下，
02:42
that's great, but all of this openness
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这是好事，但是这个开放性
02:44
may have unintended consequences.
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也可能会造成始料未及的后果。
02:46
Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.
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想想看2008年发生在孟买的恐怖袭击吧。
02:51
The men that carried that attack out were armed
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那些实施了那次恐怖袭击的人
02:54
with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.
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都装备着AK-47s，炸药和手榴弹。
02:58
They threw these hand grenades
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他们把这些手榴弹
03:00
at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes
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投向了那些正在咖啡馆里就餐
03:03
and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.
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和下班后正在等着赶火车回家的无辜的平民。
03:08
But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.
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但是在恐怖活动当中，重型火炮早已屡见不鲜。
03:11
Guns and bombs are nothing new.
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枪支和炸弹更是毫无新意了。
03:13
What was different this time
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这次恐怖袭击的特殊之处在于
03:15
is the way that the terrorists used
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恐怖分子利用
03:17
modern information communications technologies
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现代信息通信技术
03:20
to locate additional victims and slaughter them.
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查明额外的受害者的身份并且屠杀他们的方式。
03:25
They were armed with mobile phones.
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这些袭击者配备了移动电话。
03:28
They had BlackBerries.
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他们拥有黑莓手机。
03:29
They had access to satellite imagery.
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他们可以使用卫星地图。
03:31
They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.
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他们拥有卫星电话，甚至夜视眼镜。
03:36
But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.
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但是他们最大的创新之处也许是这个：
03:39
We've all seen pictures like this
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我们都在电视上或者新闻里看到过
03:41
on television and in the news. This is an operations center.
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像这样的图片。这是一个操控中心。
03:45
And the terrorists built their very own op center
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这些恐怖分子建立了完全属于他们自己的
03:47
across the border in Pakistan,
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跨越巴基斯坦边境的操控中心
03:51
where they monitored the BBC,
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在那里，他们可以监控英国广播公司，
03:52
al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.
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半岛电视台，美国有线电视，以及印度当地的地方电台。
03:57
They also monitored the Internet and social media
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他们还可以通过监测网络和社会化媒体
04:02
to monitor the progress of their attacks
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来监控他们的袭击的进展
04:04
and how many people they had killed.
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以及他们已经屠杀了多少人
04:06
They did all of this in real time.
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他们实时进行着一切行动。
04:09
The innovation of the terrorist operations center
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恐怖分子在操控中心上的创新
04:13
gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness
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为他们提供了前所未有的现场情景感知
04:16
and tactical advantage over the police
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以及远胜过警察和政府的
04:19
and over the government.
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战术优势
04:21
What did they do with this?
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他们利用它做了什么呢？
04:23
They used it to great effect.
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他们利用它发挥了重大的作用。
04:25
At one point during the 60-hour siege,
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在60个小时的恐怖袭击过程中，
04:27
the terrorists were going room to room
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这些恐怖分子曾一度闯入一间又一间的房间，
04:28
trying to find additional victims.
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试图寻找更多的受害者。
04:31
They came upon a suite on the top floor
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他们在酒店的顶层偶然发现一间套房，
04:33
of the hotel, and they kicked down the door
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接着他们踢开了房门，
04:35
and they found a man hiding by his bed.
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而且找到了一个正躲在床边的男人。
04:38
And they said to him, "Who are you,
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他们问这个男人：“你是谁，
04:40
and what are you doing here?"
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你在这里干什么？”
04:41
And the man replied,
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这个男人回答道：
04:43
"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."
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“我只是一名无辜的学校老师。”
04:47
Of course, the terrorists knew
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当然，这些恐怖分子非常清楚
04:49
that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.
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印度的学校老师不可能住得起泰姬玛哈酒店的套房。
04:53
They picked up his identification,
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他们捡起了他的身份证件，
04:54
and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,
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并且打电话将他的名字告知了恐怖活动操控中心，
04:58
where the terrorist war room Googled him,
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而操控中心的恐怖分子在谷歌上搜索了他的名字，
05:01
and found a picture and called their operatives
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找到了一张照片，然后把电话打回给在套房现场的
05:03
on the ground and said,
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恐怖分子，并且问他们：
05:04
"Your hostage, is he heavyset?
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你们的人质是不是身材壮硕？
05:09
Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"
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他的前额是不是秃顶？他是不是戴着眼镜？”
05:14
"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.
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“没错！”现场的恐怖分子回答道。
05:18
The op center had found him and they had a match.
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操控中心找到了他，并且对他的身份进行了匹配确认。
05:20
He was not a schoolteacher.
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他的确不是学校老师。
05:22
He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,
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事实上，他是印度财富排名第二的商人，
05:25
and after discovering this information,
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而在发现了这一信息之后，
05:27
the terrorist war room gave the order
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操控中心给孟买现场的恐怖分子
05:30
to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.
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下了一道命令。
05:33
("Kill him.")
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（“杀了他。”）
05:36
We all worry about our privacy settings
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我们都为我们在Facebook上的隐私设置
05:39
on Facebook,
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感到烦恼，
05:41
but the fact of the matter is,
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但是问题的实际情况在于，
05:43
our openness can be used against us.
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我们的坦率可能会被用来伤害我们自己。
05:47
Terrorists are doing this.
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恐怖分子正在这样做。
05:49
A search engine can determine
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一个搜索引擎可以决定
05:52
who shall live and who shall die.
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谁可以活着，而谁必须死。
05:56
This is the world that we live in.
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这就是我们所生活的世界。
05:59
During the Mumbai siege,
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在孟买恐怖袭击的过程中，
06:01
terrorists were so dependent on technology
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恐怖分子是如此依赖科技
06:03
that several witnesses reported that
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以至于有几个目击证人曾提到
06:06
as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,
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当恐怖分子用一只手射杀人质的时候，
06:09
they were checking their mobile phone messages
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他们还在用另一只手检查他们的
06:11
in the very other hand.
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移动电话上的信息。
06:13
In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded
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最终，共有300人受了重伤，
06:17
and over 172 men, women and children
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而超过172位男子，女子和小孩，
06:21
lost their lives that day.
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在那一天失去了生命。
06:25
Think about what happened.
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让我们想一想究竟发生了什么。
06:27
During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,
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在孟买的60个小时的恐怖袭击中，
06:30
10 men armed not just with weapons,
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不仅仅装备着武器，更装备着科技的
06:34
but with technology,
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10个恐怖分子，
06:36
were able to bring a city of 20 million people
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能够使一座容纳了2000万人的城市
06:39
to a standstill.
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陷入停滞。
06:42
Ten people brought 20 million people
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10个人使2000万人
06:44
to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.
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陷入停滞，并将这份停滞传染至世界各国。
06:48
This is what radicals can do with openness.
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这就是激进分子利用公开性所能做到的事。
06:54
This was done nearly four years ago.
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这件事发生在大约4年之前。
06:57
What could terrorists do today
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那么如今恐怖分子能够利用
06:58
with the technologies available that we have?
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我们所拥有的现有科技做些什么呢？
07:01
What will they do tomorrow?
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他们未来又会做些什么？
07:04
The ability of one to affect many
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一个人通过自己的行为影响很多人的能力
07:07
is scaling exponentially,
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正在呈指数级地增长，
07:09
and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.
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它既为正义而蓬勃，也为邪恶而蔓延。
07:13
It's not just about terrorism, though.
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尽管它并不仅仅关于恐怖主义。
07:16
There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.
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这里也存在着一个犯罪领域的巨大的范式转变。
07:18
You see, you can now commit more crime as well.
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你们看，你们现在也能进行更多的犯罪活动了。
07:22
In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.
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很久以前，罪犯的犯罪工具只有刀和枪。
07:25
Then criminals moved to robbing trains.
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之后，罪犯转而抢劫火车。
07:27
You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.
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你能在一列火车上抢劫200个人，这是一个极大的革新。
07:31
Moving forward, the Internet
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随着历史的前进，网络
07:32
allowed things to scale even more.
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让事情更具规模化。
07:35
In fact, many of you will remember
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实际上，你们中的很多人将会牢牢记住
07:36
the recent Sony PlayStation hack.
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最近索尼公司的PlayStation网络遭遇黑客入侵的事件。
07:38
In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.
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在那次事件中，超过1亿用户的信息资料被劫取了。
07:44
Think about that.
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大家可以想一想。
07:46
When in the history of humanity
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在人类漫长的历史中，
07:48
has it ever been possible for one person
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何曾出现过1个人
07:50
to rob 100 million?
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抢劫1亿人的可能性？
07:55
Of course, it's not just about stealing things.
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当然，不单单是偷取东西。
07:57
There are other avenues of technology
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还有很多的科技途径
07:59
that criminals can exploit.
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可供罪犯开发。
08:01
Many of you will remember this super cute video
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你们中的很多人将会铭记这段在最近的TED里
08:04
from the last TED,
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播放的非常可爱的视频，
08:06
but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.
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然而不是所有的四轴飞行器群都如此美好可爱。
08:11
They don't all have drumsticks.
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他们并非都有鼓槌。
08:14
Some can be armed with HD cameras
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其中有一些可能被安装了高清摄像头
08:15
and do countersurveillance on protesters,
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而且能针对反对者进行反侦察伪装，
08:18
or, as in this little bit of movie magic,
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或者，正如在这段简短的电影魔法中展现的，
08:21
quadcopters can be loaded with firearms
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四轴飞行器可以被装置上火器，
08:24
and automatic weapons.
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以及自动武器。
08:28
Little robots are cute when they play music to you.
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当小机器人为你弹奏音乐时，他们的确很可爱。
08:31
When they swarm and chase you down the block
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但是当它们蜂拥而至，在街区追逐你并不停地
08:34
to shoot you, a little bit less so.
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向你射击时，可就没那么可爱了。
08:37
Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first
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当然，罪犯和恐怖分子并非最先
08:39
to give guns to robots. We know where that started.
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将武器安置在机器人身上。我们都知道这从何开始。
08:42
But they're adapting quickly.
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但是，他们适应得非常快。
08:43
Recently, the FBI arrested
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最近，美国联邦调查局逮捕了
08:45
an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,
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一位潜于美国的基地组织成员，
08:47
who was planning on using these remote-controlled
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他正计划利用这些远程遥控的
08:49
drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives
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无人驾驶飞机携带C4炸药
08:52
into government buildings in the United States.
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飞入美国的政府大楼。
08:55
By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.
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顺便提一下，它们的飞行时速超过600英里。
09:00
Every time a new technology is being introduced,
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每当一项新的科技被介绍引进，
09:02
criminals are there to exploit it.
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罪犯就开始开发利用它。
09:05
We've all seen 3D printers.
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我们都看过3D打印机，
09:06
We know with them that you can print
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我们都知道利用这种打印机，我们可以通过
09:08
in many materials ranging from plastic
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从塑料到巧克力，到金属，甚至混凝土
09:11
to chocolate to metal and even concrete.
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等多种材料进行打印。
09:15
With great precision
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实际上，凭借极高的精度，
09:17
I actually was able to make this
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我在不久前的一天
09:19
just the other day, a very cute little ducky.
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制造了一只非常可爱的小鸭子。
09:25
But I wonder to myself,
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但是我追问自己，
09:27
for those people that strap bombs to their chests
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对于那些将炸弹捆绑在自己的胸前，
09:34
and blow themselves up,
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然后让自己爆炸的恐怖分子来说，
09:35
how might they use 3D printers?
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他们可能会如何使用3D打印机？
09:39
Perhaps like this.
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有可能像这样。
09:43
You see, if you can print in metal,
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你们看，如果你们能够用金属打印，
09:45
you can print one of these,
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你们就能打印出这其中的一个，
09:49
and in fact
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而且事实上，
09:55
you can also print one of these too.
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你们也能打印出这其中的一个。
10:01
The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.
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据我所知，英国制定了一些非常严厉的关于火器的法律。
10:05
You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.
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你们再也不需要将枪带入英国了。
10:08
You just bring the 3D printer
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你们只需要带一台3D打印机
10:09
and print the gun while you're here,
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当你们在这里之后打印一支枪，
10:12
and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.
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当然，还有子弹夹。
10:15
But as these get bigger in the future,
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但是当这些东西在未来变得越来愈庞大，
10:17
what other items will you be able to print?
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你们将能打印哪些其他的物体呢？
10:19
The technologies are allowing bigger printers.
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科技将会为更庞大的打印机开路。
10:22
As we move forward,
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随着人类社会向前发展
10:24
we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.
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我们也会见证很多新科技的诞生，比如物联网。
10:26
Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives
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我们日复一日地将越来越多的个人生活
10:28
to the Internet, which means
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与网络相连，这就意味着
10:31
that the Internet of Things will soon be
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物联网将很快成为
10:35
the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.
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等待被黑之物的互联网。
10:37
All of the physical objects in our space
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我们生活空间里存在的所有的有形物体
10:39
are being transformed into information technologies,
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都正在被转换为信息技术，
10:42
and that has a radical implication for our security,
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而这对我们的安全具有根本性的暗示，
10:45
because more connections to more devices
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因为与更多的设备产生更多的联系
10:48
means more vulnerabilities.
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就意味着出现更多的可供攻击的漏洞。
10:51
Criminals understand this.
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罪犯清楚这一点。
10:53
Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.
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恐怖分子清楚这一点。黑客清楚这一点。
10:54
If you control the code, you control the world.
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只要你能控制代码，你就能控制整个世界。
10:58
This is the future that awaits us.
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这就是等待着我们的未来。
11:02
There has not yet been an operating system
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到现在为止还没有一个操作系统
11:05
or a technology that hasn't been hacked.
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或者一项技术没有遭到过黑客入侵。
11:08
That's troubling, since the human body itself
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这非常令人担忧，因为人体本身
11:10
is now becoming an information technology.
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正在逐渐成为一项信息技术。
11:14
As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.
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正如我们在这里看到的，我们正在将自己转换为电子人。
11:17
Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,
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每一年都有成千上万的人工耳蜗，
11:20
diabetic pumps, pacemakers
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胰岛素泵，心脏起搏器，
11:22
and defibrillators are being implanted in people.
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心脏除颤器被移植入人类的身体。
11:24
In the United States, there are 60,000 people
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在美国，一共有6万人
11:27
who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.
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拥有连接到网络的心脏起搏器。
11:30
The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance
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而心脏除颤器也使得千里之外的内科医生
11:33
to give a shock to a heart
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能够在患者需要的时候
11:35
in case a patient needs it.
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对他的心脏进行一次电击。
11:37
But if you don't need it,
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但是如果你不需要它，
11:39
and somebody else gives you the shock,
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而让其他人为你做一次电击，
11:41
it's not a good thing.
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这就不是一件好事了。
11:45
Of course, we're going to go even deeper than the human body.
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当然，我们的科技发展将不会止步于人体。
11:48
We're going down to the cellular level these days.
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目前，我们的科技正慢慢深入细胞层面。
11:50
Up until this point, all the technologies
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到现在为止，我所谈论到的
11:53
I've been talking about have been silicon-based, ones and zeroes,
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所有技术都以硅为基础，以0和1为序码，
11:56
but there's another operating system out there:
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但是现在又出现了另一套操作系统：
11:59
the original operating system, DNA.
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即最本原的操作系统，DNA。
12:04
And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system
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对黑客来说，DNA只不过是另一套等着被入侵的
12:08
waiting to be hacked.
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操作系统罢了。
12:10
It's a great challenge for them.
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这对他们来说是一个巨大的挑战。
12:12
There are people already working on hacking the software of life,
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甚至有很多人早已从事于开发这套生命软件，
12:15
and while most of them are doing this to great good
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虽然其中的绝大部分是为了公众的福祉，
12:18
and to help us all,
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是为了帮助我们所有人，
12:19
some won't be.
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但总有一部分人心存恶毒。
12:23
So how will criminals abuse this?
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那么罪犯将如何滥用这项技术呢？
12:25
Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.
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利用合成生物学，你能做一些相当优雅的事情。
12:27
For example, I predict that we will move away
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例如，我预测我们将会离开这个
12:30
from a plant-based narcotics world
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植物配方毒品的时代而进入
12:33
to a synthetic one. Why do you need the plants anymore?
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合成毒品的时代。那么你们为什么还需要植物呢？
12:36
You can just take the DNA code from marijuana
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你们可以仅仅从大麻或者罂粟或者古柯叶里
12:39
or poppies or coca leaves
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提取DNA编码，
12:44
and cut and past that gene
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接着剪切并复制那段基因，
12:46
and put it into yeast,
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继而将它放入酵母中，
12:49
and you can take those yeast
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然后你可以取出那些酵母
12:50
and make them make the cocaine for you,
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并且用它们来为你们制造可卡因，
12:54
or the marijuana, or any other drug.
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或者大麻，或者其他任何毒品。
12:58
So how we use yeast in the future
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可见，我们在未来如何运用酵母
12:59
is going to be really interesting.
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将会变得相当有趣。
13:01
In fact, we may have some really interesting bread and beer
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实际上，当我们进入下一个世纪，我们可能会拥有
13:04
as we go into this next century.
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一些非常有意思的面包和啤酒。
13:07
The cost of sequencing the human genome is dropping precipitously.
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对人类基因进行排序的费用正在迅速下降。
13:11
It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,
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它过去一直按照摩尔定律的速度进行，
13:14
but then in 2008, something changed.
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但是到了2008年，有一些事情改变了。
13:16
The technologies got better,
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科技变得更加先进，
13:17
and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace
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现在进行DNA排序的速度已经达到了
13:21
five times that of Moore's Law.
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摩尔定律的五倍。
13:24
That has significant implications for us.
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这对我们而言有着极为重大的影响。
13:28
It took us 30 years to get from
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我们花了30年时间从
13:31
the introduction of the personal computer
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个人电脑的引进发展到
13:33
to the level of cybercrime we have today,
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我们今天达到的网络犯罪的程度，
13:35
but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,
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但是看看生物学技术发展得多么迅猛，
13:39
and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,
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并像我一样了解罪犯和恐怖分子，
13:41
we may get there a lot faster
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我们在未来也许可以利用生物犯罪
13:43
with biocrime in the future.
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更快地达成目的。
13:45
It will be easy for anybody to go ahead
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对任何人来说，着手行动，
13:47
and print their own bio-virus,
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打印他们自己的生物病毒，
13:49
enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,
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强化埃博拉病毒、炭疽病、武器化流感的变体，
13:52
weaponized flu.
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都将轻而易举。
13:54
We recently saw a case where some researchers
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我们最近观察到一个案例，发现一些研究员
13:57
made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.
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将H5N1禽流感病毒变得更强效。
14:02
It already has a 70 percent mortality rate
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如果你受它感染，你的死亡概率已经会
14:05
if you get it, but it's hard to get.
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达到70%，但是它并不轻易传染。
14:07
Engineers, by moving around a small number
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工程师们通过来回移动少量的
14:09
of genetic changes,
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基因变化，
14:11
were able to weaponize it
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能够将它武器化
14:13
and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,
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并使它更容易传染给人类
14:16
so that not thousands of people would die,
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如此一来，死去的人将何止成千上万，
14:18
but tens of millions.
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恐怕将以数千万计。
14:20
You see, you can go ahead and create
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你们看，你们可以赶紧行动并创造
14:22
new pandemics, and the researchers who did this
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新的全球性疫情，而那些从事了上述工作的研究员
14:24
were so proud of their accomplishments,
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将会为他们的非凡成就而深感自豪，
14:26
they wanted to publish it openly
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他们会希望将这一技术公开发表，
14:28
so that everybody could see this
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从而让每一个人了解这些，
14:30
and get access to this information.
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并能够利用这些信息。
14:34
But it goes deeper than that.
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但是事情远不止这么简单。
14:36
DNA researcher Andrew Hessel
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一位名为Andrew Hessel的DNA研究员
14:38
has pointed out quite rightly
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已经非常准确地指明
14:39
that if you can use cancer treatments,
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如果你们能够利用癌症疗法，
14:41
modern cancer treatments,
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现代癌症疗法，
14:43
to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells
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去获取一个细胞，同时让其周围的其他细胞
14:46
around it intact,
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保持原状，
14:47
then you can also go after any one person's cell.
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那么之后你们也可能获取任何一个人的细胞。
14:51
Personalized cancer treatments
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1978
个性化的癌症疗法
14:53
are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,
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正是个性化的生物武器的另一面，
14:56
which means you can attack any one individual,
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这就意味着你可以攻击任何一个人，
14:59
including all the people in this picture.
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包括这张图片里的所有人。
15:04
How will we protect them in the future?
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那么未来我们要如何保护他们？
15:08
What to do? What to do about all this?
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我们下一步该怎么办？关于这一切，我们该做什么？
15:10
That's what I get asked all the time.
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这是我一直以来被追问的问题。
15:13
For those of you who follow me on Twitter,
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对于你们中的那些在Twitter上跟随我的人，
15:15
I will be tweeting out the answer later on today. (Laughter)
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我将会在今天的晚些时候公布答案。（笑声）
15:19
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,
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实际上，事情比这要更复杂一些，
15:22
and there are no magic bullets.
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而且我们没有灵丹妙药。
15:24
I don't have all the answers,
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1712
我并不知道所有的答案，
15:26
but I know a few things.
329
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但是我知道一些事情。
15:27
In the wake of 9/11,
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在9·11事件之后，
15:30
the best security minds
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最具安保才智的精英们
15:33
put together all their innovation
332
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1984
将他们所有的创新凝聚在一起
15:35
and this is what they created for security.
333
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而这正是他们为保护我们的安全所创造的。
15:39
If you're expecting the people who built this to protect you
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如果你指望建造了这个的精英能够从未来的机器人启示录
15:43
from the coming robopocalypse — (Laughter)
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之中穿越而出来保护你—（笑声）
15:47
— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)
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—嗯，你大概想要一个后备计划。（笑声）
15:49
Just saying. Just think about that. (Applause)
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只是说一说。只是想一想。（掌声）
15:56
Law enforcement is currently a closed system.
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执法活动在当下仍属一个封闭的系统。
15:59
It's nation-based, while the threat is international.
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它虽以国家为基础，但威胁是国际性的。
16:01
Policing doesn't scale globally. At least, it hasn't,
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警察并不具有全球性的规模。至少现在还没有，
16:05
and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences
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4283
而我们现行的枪支，边防，大门和围栏的体系制度
16:10
are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.
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完全不能适应我们正将迈入的新时代。
16:13
So how might we prepare for some of these specific threats,
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所以我们应该如何准备应对这些特定的威胁，
16:15
like attacking a president or a prime minister?
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比如袭击一位总统或者首相？
16:17
This would be the natural government response,
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政府理所当然会采取的应对措施是
16:20
to hide away all our government leaders
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将我们的政府领导人全都藏在
16:22
in hermetically sealed bubbles.
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密封保护的泡沫之中。
16:24
But this is not going to work.
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但是这并不会奏效。
16:25
The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.
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对DNA进行排序的费用将会低得微不足道。
16:29
Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.
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在未来，任何人都将拥有它，我们都将掌握它。
16:32
So maybe there's a more radical way that we can look at this.
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因此也许有一个更彻底的方式，我们看看这个。
16:35
What happens if we were to take
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如果我们得到总统的DNA，
16:37
the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,
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或者国王或王后的DNA，然后将它提供给
16:40
and put it out to a group of a few hundred
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一个由几百位可信赖的研究员组成的团队，
16:43
trusted researchers so they could
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使他们能够研究这个DNA，并且对它
16:45
study that DNA and do penetration testing against it
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进行入侵性的渗透测试，以作为帮助我们的领导人的
16:48
as a means of helping our leaders?
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一种方式，那么将会发生什么呢？
16:50
Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?
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或者如果我们将它提供给几千人将会怎么样呢？
16:52
Or, controversially, and not without its risks,
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或者，即使颇具争议，也不是没有风险，
16:55
what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?
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如果我们将它提供给全社会将会发生什么？
16:58
Then we could all be engaged in helping.
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然后我们都能够投身于帮助他人。
17:01
We've already seen examples of this working well.
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关于这项工作，我们已经看到了一些实例。
17:04
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
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有组织犯罪和腐败报告项目
17:07
is staffed by journalists and citizens
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配备了记者和公民，
17:08
where they are crowd-sourcing
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他们集思广益群策群力
17:10
what dictators and terrorists are doing
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找出独裁者和恐怖分子所做的活动，
17:13
with public funds around the world,
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并得到了来自世界各地的公共基金支持，
17:14
and, in a more dramatic case,
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此外还有一个更具戏剧性的例子，
17:16
we've seen in Mexico,
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是我们在墨西哥了解到的，
17:18
a country that has been racked
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这个国家在过去的六年里
17:20
by 50,000 narcotics-related murders
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发生了5万件与毒品有关的谋杀，
17:24
in the past six years.
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并为此饱受折磨。
17:26
They're killing so many people
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他们杀害了这么多的人，
17:27
they can't even afford to bury them all
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甚至负担不起将他们全部好生入葬的费用，
17:29
in anything but these unmarked graves
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而只能将他们埋入这些无名坟墓，
17:31
like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.
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比如华雷斯城外的这个地方。
17:35
What can we do about this? The government has proven ineffective.
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我们能为此做些什么呢？政府已经被证明毫无效用。
17:38
So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,
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因此在墨西哥，公民们自身冒着极大的危险
17:41
are fighting back to build an effective solution.
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为了建立一套有效的方案而坚持反击。
17:45
They're crowd-mapping the activities of the drug dealers.
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他们以生命之血构建人群地图记录了毒贩的所有活动。
17:49
Whether or not you realize it,
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不论你们是否意识到，
17:51
we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,
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我们即将迎来一场科技军备竞赛，
17:55
an arms race between people
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这场军备竞赛的双方
17:56
who are using technology for good
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是运用科技行善的一方
17:58
and those who are using it for ill.
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和滥用科技作恶的一方
18:00
The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now.
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这次威胁相当严峻，而全力备战的时间正是现在。
18:05
I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.
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我可以向你们保证恐怖分子和罪犯正在加紧准备。
18:08
My personal belief is that,
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我个人的信仰是，
18:10
rather than having a small, elite force
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与其依靠一支由训练有素的政府人员
18:12
of highly trained government agents
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组成的小规模精英部队
18:14
here to protect us all,
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来保护我们所有人，
18:16
we're much better off
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还不如让
18:18
having average and ordinary citizens
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普通公民团结为整体
18:20
approaching this problem as a group
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来解决这个问题，并且看看
18:22
and seeing what we can do.
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我们能做什么要好得多。
18:23
If we all do our part,
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如果我们都能够尽绵薄之力，
18:25
I think we'll be in a much better space.
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我相信我们将会拥有更美好的生活。
18:27
The tools to change the world
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改变世界的工具
18:29
are in everybody's hands.
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在我们每一个人手中。
18:30
How we use them is not just up to me,
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我们如何利用这些工具绝不仅取决于我，
18:33
it's up to all of us.
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更取决于我们所有人的努力。
18:36
This was a technology I would frequently deploy
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这是我在做警察的时候经常
18:38
as a police officer.
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应用的科技。
18:40
This technology has become outdated in our current world.
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这项技术在我们现处的时代已经过气了。
18:44
It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,
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它不具规模，不能运用于全世界，
18:47
and it surely doesn't work virtually.
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在虚拟空间更是一无是处
18:49
We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.
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我们已经看到了犯罪和恐怖主义的范式改革。
18:52
They call for a shift to a more open form
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他们呼吁改革至一个更为开放的形态，
18:56
and a more participatory form of law enforcement.
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和一个更注重参与的执法模式。
19:01
So I invite you to join me.
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因此我邀请你加入我们。
19:04
After all, public safety is too important to leave to the professionals.
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毕竟，公众安全事关重大，不能仅限于专业人员参加。
19:09
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢大家。（掌声）
19:12
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Marc Goodman - Global Security FuturistMarc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented.
Why you should listen
Marc Goodman imagines the future crime and terrorism challenges we will all face as a result of advancing technologies. He thinks deeply about the disruptive security implications of robotics, artificial intelligence, social data, virtual reality and synthetic biology. Technology, he says, is affording exponentially growing power to non-state actors and rogue players, with significant consequences for our common global security. How to respond to these threats? The crime-fighting solution might just lie in crowdsourcing.
Goodman heads the Future Crimes Institute, a think tank and clearinghouse that researches and advises on the security and risk implications of emerging technologies. He also serves as the Global Security Advisor and Chair for Policy and Law at Singularity University.
Marc Goodman | Speaker | TED.com