TEDGlobal 2012
Marc Goodman: A vision of crimes in the future
Marc Goodman: Vizija kriminala u budućnosti
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
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Svijet postaje sve otvoreniji i to ima ne samo pozitivne implikacije, već i one opasne. Marc Goodman donosi sliku teške budućnosti u kojoj bi brzi napredak tehnologije mogao donijeti pogoršanje kod kriminala.
Marc Goodman - Global Security Futurist
Marc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented. Full bio
Marc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I study the future
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Bavim se proučavanjem budućnosti
00:19
of crime and terrorism,
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kriminala i terorizma
00:23
and frankly, I'm afraid.
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i iskreno, strah me je.
00:25
I'm afraid by what I see.
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Strah me je onoga što vidim.
00:27
I sincerely want to believe
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Najiskrenije želim vjerovati
00:29
that technology can bring us
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da će nam tehnologija donijeti
00:32
the techno-utopia that we've been promised,
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tehnološku utopiju koja nam je obećana,
00:35
but, you see,
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ali, vidite,
00:37
I've spent a career in law enforcement,
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proveo sam cijelu karijeru u policiji
00:40
and that's informed my perspective on things.
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i na tome se temelji moje shvaćanje stvari.
00:43
I've been a street police officer,
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Bio sam prometni policajac,
00:44
an undercover investigator,
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prikriveni istražitelj,
00:46
a counter-terrorism strategist,
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anti-teroristički strateg,
00:48
and I've worked in more than 70 countries
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i radio sam u više od 70 zemalja
00:51
around the world.
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diljem svijeta.
00:52
I've had to see more than my fair share
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Morao sam vidjeti više nego što je potrebno od
00:54
of violence and the darker underbelly of society,
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nasilja i mračne strane društva,
00:57
and that's informed my opinions.
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i to je oblikovalo moje mišljenje.
01:01
My work with criminals and terrorists
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Moj rad s kriminalcima i teroristima
01:03
has actually been highly educational.
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je u biti bio veoma edukativan.
01:05
They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able
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Naučili su me mnogočemu i voli bih da mogu
01:08
to share some of these observations with you.
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podijeliti neka od tih opažanja s vama.
01:12
Today I'm going to show you the flip side
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Danas ću vam pokazati drugu stranu medalje
01:14
of all those technologies that we marvel at,
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svih onih tehnologija kojima se divimo,
01:18
the ones that we love.
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koje volimo.
01:20
In the hands of the TED community,
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U rukama TED zajednice,
01:22
these are awesome tools which will bring about
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ovo su nevjerojatni alati koji će dovesti do velikih
01:25
great change for our world,
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promjena u našem svijetu,
01:28
but in the hands of suicide bombers,
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ali u rukama bombaša samoubojica,
01:31
the future can look quite different.
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budućnost može izgledati poprilično drugačije.
01:34
I started observing
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Počeo sam promatrati
01:37
technology and how criminals were using it
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tehnologiju i način na koji je kriminalci upotrebljavaju
01:38
as a young patrol officer.
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kao mladi prometni policajac.
01:40
In those days, this was the height of technology.
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U tim danima, ovo je bio vrhunac tehnologije.
01:45
Laugh though you will,
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Možete se smijati koliko želite,
01:46
all the drug dealers and gang members
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ali svi dileri i članovi bandi
01:48
with whom I dealt had one of these
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s kojima sam imao posla su imali jedan takav
01:50
long before any police officer I knew did.
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davno prije svih policajaca koje sam poznavao.
01:54
Twenty years later, criminals are still using
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Dvadeset godina kasnije, kriminalci i dalje koriste
01:57
mobile phones, but they're also building
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mobilne telefone, ali isto tako grade i
02:01
their own mobile phone networks,
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vlastite mobilne mreže
02:03
like this one, which has been deployed
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poput ove koja je postavljena od strane narko bandi
02:06
in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.
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u sve 31 savezne države Meksika.
02:09
They have a national encrypted
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Posjeduju nacionalni kriptirani
02:12
radio communications system.
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radio komunikacijski sustav.
02:15
Think about that.
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Razmislite o tome.
02:17
Think about the innovation that went into that.
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Razmislite o inovacijama koje su korištene u tome.
02:20
Think about the infrastructure to build it.
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Razmislite o potrebnoj infrastrukturi.
02:23
And then think about this:
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A zatim razmislite o sljedećem:
02:25
Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)
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Zašto ne mogu dobiti signal na svojem mobitelu u San Franciscu? (Smijeh)
02:29
How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)
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Kako je to moguće? (Smijeh)
To nema smisla. (Pljesak)
To nema smisla. (Pljesak)
02:34
We consistently underestimate
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Neprestano podcjenjujemo
02:35
what criminals and terrorists can do.
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sposobnost kriminalaca i terorista.
02:38
Technology has made our world
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Tehnologija je doprinijela da se svijet
02:40
increasingly open, and for the most part,
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neprestano otvara, i većinom
02:42
that's great, but all of this openness
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je to odlično, ali sva ta otvorenost
02:44
may have unintended consequences.
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može imati neplanirane posljedice.
02:46
Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.
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Razmotrite teroristički napad iz 2008. u Mumbaiju.
02:51
The men that carried that attack out were armed
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Ljudi koji su izveli taj napad bili su naoružani
02:54
with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.
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s kalašnjikovima, eksplozivima i ručnim bombama.
02:58
They threw these hand grenades
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Bacali su te ručne bombe
03:00
at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes
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na nedužne ljude koji su sjedili u kafićima
03:03
and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.
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i čekali na vlakove koje će ih odvesti kući s posla.
03:08
But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.
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Ali teška artiljerija nije ništo novo u terorističkim operacijama.
03:11
Guns and bombs are nothing new.
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Puške i bombe nisu ništa novo.
03:13
What was different this time
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Ono što je bilo drugačije ovaj put
03:15
is the way that the terrorists used
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jest način na koji su teroristi koristili
03:17
modern information communications technologies
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moderne informacijeske tehnologije
03:20
to locate additional victims and slaughter them.
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kako bi locirali dodatne žrtve i ubili ih.
03:25
They were armed with mobile phones.
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Bili su naoružani mobilnim telefonima.
03:28
They had BlackBerries.
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Imali su BlackBerry-je.
03:29
They had access to satellite imagery.
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Imali su pristup satelitskim snimkama.
03:31
They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.
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Imali su satelitske telefone i čak su imali i naočale za noćni vid.
03:36
But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.
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Ali možda je njihova najveća inovacija bila ova.
03:39
We've all seen pictures like this
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Svi smo mi vidjeli slike poput ove
03:41
on television and in the news. This is an operations center.
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na televiziji i u vijestima. Ovo je operativni centar.
03:45
And the terrorists built their very own op center
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A teroristi su sagradili vlastiti operativni centar
03:47
across the border in Pakistan,
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preko granice u Pakistanu
03:51
where they monitored the BBC,
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gdje su pratili BBC,
03:52
al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.
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al-Jazeeru, CNN i indijske lokalne stanice.
03:57
They also monitored the Internet and social media
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Također su pratili internet i društvene medije
04:02
to monitor the progress of their attacks
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kako bi pratili napredak svojih napada
04:04
and how many people they had killed.
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i koliko su ljudi ubili.
04:06
They did all of this in real time.
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Sve su to radili u realnom vremenu.
04:09
The innovation of the terrorist operations center
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Inovacija terorističkog operativnog centra
04:13
gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness
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je pružila teroristima do sada nepoznatu preglednost nad situacijom
04:16
and tactical advantage over the police
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i taktičku prednost nad policijom
04:19
and over the government.
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i vladom.
04:21
What did they do with this?
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Što su oni činili s time?
04:23
They used it to great effect.
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Iskoristili su ga s velikom učinkovitošću.
04:25
At one point during the 60-hour siege,
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U jednom trenutku tijekom 60-satne okupacije,
04:27
the terrorists were going room to room
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teroristi su pretraživali sobu za sobom
04:28
trying to find additional victims.
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pokušavajući pronaći dodatne žrtve.
04:31
They came upon a suite on the top floor
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Došli su do apartmana na posljednjem katu hotela,
04:33
of the hotel, and they kicked down the door
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srušili vrata
04:35
and they found a man hiding by his bed.
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i pronašli čovjeka koji se sakrivao ispod kreveta.
04:38
And they said to him, "Who are you,
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Zatim su ga upitali: "Tko si ti,
04:40
and what are you doing here?"
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i što radiš ovdje?",
04:41
And the man replied,
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na što je čovjek odgovorio:
04:43
"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."
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"Nedužni sam učitelj."
04:47
Of course, the terrorists knew
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Naravno, teroristi su znali
04:49
that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.
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da ni jedan indijski učitelj ne odsjeda u apartmanu u Taj-u.
04:53
They picked up his identification,
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Uzeli su njegovu osobnu iskaznicu,
04:54
and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,
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i prenijeli njegovo ime teroristima u zapovjednoj sobi
04:58
where the terrorist war room Googled him,
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gdje su teroristi potražili njegovo ime na Google-u
05:01
and found a picture and called their operatives
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i pronašli njegovu sliku nakon čega su nazvali operativce
05:03
on the ground and said,
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na terenu i rekli:
05:04
"Your hostage, is he heavyset?
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"Vaš zatočenik, je li krupnije građe?
05:09
Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"
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Je li proćelav odsprijeda? Nosi li naočale?"
05:14
"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.
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"Da, da, da.", stigao je odgovor.
05:18
The op center had found him and they had a match.
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Operativni centar ga je pronašao i otkrio njegov identitet.
05:20
He was not a schoolteacher.
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On nije bio učitelj.
05:22
He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,
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Bio je drugi najbogatiji poduzetnik u Indiji
05:25
and after discovering this information,
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i nakon što su otkrili te informacije,
05:27
the terrorist war room gave the order
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teroristička zapovjedna soba je izdala zapovijed
05:30
to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.
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teroristima na terenu u Mumbaiju.
05:33
("Kill him.")
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("Ubijte ga.")
05:36
We all worry about our privacy settings
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Svi mi se brinemo o postavkama sigurnosti
05:39
on Facebook,
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na Facebook-u,
05:41
but the fact of the matter is,
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ali u stvarnosti
05:43
our openness can be used against us.
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se naša otvorenost može koristiti i protiv nas.
05:47
Terrorists are doing this.
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Teroristi to čine.
05:49
A search engine can determine
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Pretraživač može odrediti
05:52
who shall live and who shall die.
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tko će živjeti a tko će umrijeti.
05:56
This is the world that we live in.
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To je svijet u koje živimo.
05:59
During the Mumbai siege,
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Tijekom okupacije u Mumbaiju,
06:01
terrorists were so dependent on technology
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teroristi su bili toliko ovisni o tehnologiji
06:03
that several witnesses reported that
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da je nekoliko svjedoka posvjedočilo
06:06
as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,
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da su teroristi, dok su jednom rukom pucali na taoce,
06:09
they were checking their mobile phone messages
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drugom slobodnom rukom
06:11
in the very other hand.
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provjeravali poruke na svojim mobitelima.
06:13
In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded
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Naposljetku, 300 ljudi je bilo ozbiljno ozlijeđeno,
06:17
and over 172 men, women and children
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a preko 172 muškaraca, žena i djece
06:21
lost their lives that day.
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je izgubilo život taj dan.
06:25
Think about what happened.
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Razmislite o tome što se dogodilo.
06:27
During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,
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Tijekom 60-satne okupacije u Mumbaiju,
06:30
10 men armed not just with weapons,
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10 ljudi naoružanih ne samo oružjem,
06:34
but with technology,
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već i tehnologijom,
06:36
were able to bring a city of 20 million people
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uspjelo je dovesti grad s 20 milijuna stanovnika
06:39
to a standstill.
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u zastoj.
06:42
Ten people brought 20 million people
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10 ljudi je dovelo 20 milijuna ljudi
06:44
to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.
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u zastoj, i taj čin je obišao svijet.
06:48
This is what radicals can do with openness.
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To je ono što radikali mogu učiniti s otvorenošću.
06:54
This was done nearly four years ago.
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To se dogodilo prije gotovo četiri godine.
06:57
What could terrorists do today
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Što bi teroristi mogli napraviti danas
06:58
with the technologies available that we have?
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s tehnologijom koja nam je sada dostupna?
07:01
What will they do tomorrow?
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Što će učiniti sutra?
07:04
The ability of one to affect many
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Sposobnost da jedan utječe na mnoge
07:07
is scaling exponentially,
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raste eksponencijalno
07:09
and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.
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i taj se rast odnosi na dobro kao i na zlo.
07:13
It's not just about terrorism, though.
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Iako, nije to samo s terorizmom.
07:16
There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.
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Dogodio se i veliki pomak u konceptu zločina.
07:18
You see, you can now commit more crime as well.
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Vidite, danas se također može obaviti i veći broj zločina.
07:22
In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.
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U stara vremena, postojao je samo nož i pištolj.
07:25
Then criminals moved to robbing trains.
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Zatim su kriminalci prešli na pljačkanje vlakova.
07:27
You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.
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Mogli ste orobiti 200 ljudi u vlaku, velika inovacija.
07:31
Moving forward, the Internet
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Nadalje, internet je omogućio
07:32
allowed things to scale even more.
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daljnje povećanje mjerila.
07:35
In fact, many of you will remember
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U biti, mnogi od vas će se mogu sjetiti
07:36
the recent Sony PlayStation hack.
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nedavnog hakiranja Sony PlayStationa.
07:38
In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.
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U tom incidentu, pokradeno je više od 100 milijuna ljudi.
07:44
Think about that.
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Razmislite o tome.
07:46
When in the history of humanity
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Kada je u ljudskoj povijesti
07:48
has it ever been possible for one person
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bilo moguće da jedna osoba
07:50
to rob 100 million?
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opljačka 100 milijuna ljudi?
07:55
Of course, it's not just about stealing things.
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Naravno, nije sve u krađama predmeta.
07:57
There are other avenues of technology
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Postoje razne grane tehnologije
07:59
that criminals can exploit.
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koje kriminalci mogu iskoristiti.
08:01
Many of you will remember this super cute video
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Mnogi od vas će se prisjetiti dražesnog videa
08:04
from the last TED,
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sa zadnjeg TED-a,
08:06
but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.
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ali nisu svi rojevi kvadrikoptera tako dražesni i dobri.
08:11
They don't all have drumsticks.
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Nemaju svi palice za bubnjeve.
08:14
Some can be armed with HD cameras
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Neki mogu biti naoružani HD kamerama
08:15
and do countersurveillance on protesters,
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i sprječavati nadzor nad prosvjednicima,
08:18
or, as in this little bit of movie magic,
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ili, kao u ovom djeliću filmske čarolije,
08:21
quadcopters can be loaded with firearms
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kvadrikopteri mogu biti opremljeni vatrenim oružjem
08:24
and automatic weapons.
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i automatskim puškama.
08:28
Little robots are cute when they play music to you.
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Mali roboti su dražesni kada vam sviraju glazbu.
08:31
When they swarm and chase you down the block
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Kada se grupiraju u rojeve i love vas ulicom
08:34
to shoot you, a little bit less so.
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da bi vas upucali, ipak su malo manje dražesni.
08:37
Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first
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Naravno, kriminalci i teroristi nisu bili prvi
08:39
to give guns to robots. We know where that started.
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koji su dali oružje robotima. Svi znamo gdje je to počelo.
08:42
But they're adapting quickly.
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Ali prilagođavaju se brzo.
08:43
Recently, the FBI arrested
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Nedavno je FBI uhitio
08:45
an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,
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osobu povezanu s al Qaeda-om u SAD-u,
08:47
who was planning on using these remote-controlled
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koja je planirala koristiti ove bespilotne letjelice
08:49
drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives
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na daljinsko upravljanje kako bi prenio C4 eksploziv
08:52
into government buildings in the United States.
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na vladine zgrade u SAD-u.
08:55
By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.
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Usput, ove mogu letjeti brzinama od preko 960 km/h.
09:00
Every time a new technology is being introduced,
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Svaki put kad se uvodi nova tehnologija,
09:02
criminals are there to exploit it.
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kriminalci su tu da je iskoriste.
09:05
We've all seen 3D printers.
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Svi smo vidjeli 3D printere.
09:06
We know with them that you can print
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Znamo da za printanje mogu koristiti
09:08
in many materials ranging from plastic
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različite materijale od plastike
09:11
to chocolate to metal and even concrete.
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pa sve do čokolade i metala pa čak i betona.
09:15
With great precision
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S velikom sam preciznošću
09:17
I actually was able to make this
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zapravo uspio nekidan napraviti ovu
09:19
just the other day, a very cute little ducky.
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veoma dražesnu patkicu.
09:25
But I wonder to myself,
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Ali zapitao sam se
09:27
for those people that strap bombs to their chests
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kako bi ljudi koji postavljaju bombe na sebe
09:34
and blow themselves up,
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i dižu se u zrak,
09:35
how might they use 3D printers?
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mogli iskoristiti 3D printere.
09:39
Perhaps like this.
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Možda na ovaj način.
09:43
You see, if you can print in metal,
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Vidite, ukoliko možete printati metal,
09:45
you can print one of these,
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možete isprintati jedan ovakav
09:49
and in fact
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i, u biti,
09:55
you can also print one of these too.
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možete isprintati i jedan ovakav.
10:01
The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.
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Velika Britanija kakvu poznajem ima neke veoma striktne zakone u vezi vatrenog oružja.
10:05
You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.
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Više ne moraš unijeti oružje u Veliku Britaniju.
10:08
You just bring the 3D printer
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Samo doneseš 3D printer
10:09
and print the gun while you're here,
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i isprintaš si pištolj dok si ondje
10:12
and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.
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i, naravno, spremnik za metke.
10:15
But as these get bigger in the future,
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Ali kako će se povećavati njihova veličina s vremenom,
10:17
what other items will you be able to print?
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koje će se sve stvari moći printati?
10:19
The technologies are allowing bigger printers.
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Tehnologije omogućavaju veće printere.
10:22
As we move forward,
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I kako idemo naprijed,
10:24
we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.
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vidjet ćemo i nove stvari, poput Interneta za stvari.
10:26
Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives
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Svakodnevno povezujemo život sve više i više
10:28
to the Internet, which means
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s internetom, što znači
10:31
that the Internet of Things will soon be
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da će Internet stvari uskoro biti
10:35
the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.
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internet stvari za hakiranje.
10:37
All of the physical objects in our space
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Svi fizički objekti u našem prostoru
10:39
are being transformed into information technologies,
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se transformiraju u informacijske tehnologije,
10:42
and that has a radical implication for our security,
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i to predstavlja radikalne implikacije za našu sigurnost,
10:45
because more connections to more devices
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zato što veći broj veza prema uređajima
10:48
means more vulnerabilities.
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označava i veću ranjivost.
10:51
Criminals understand this.
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Kriminalci to razumiju.
10:53
Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.
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Teroristi to razumiju. Hakeri to razumiju.
10:54
If you control the code, you control the world.
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Ukoliko kontroliraš kod, kontroliraš i svijet.
10:58
This is the future that awaits us.
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To je budućnost koja nas čeka.
11:02
There has not yet been an operating system
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Do sada nije postojao operativni sustav
11:05
or a technology that hasn't been hacked.
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ili tehnologija koja nije bila hakirana.
11:08
That's troubling, since the human body itself
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To je zabrinjavajuće zato što samo ljudsko tijelo
11:10
is now becoming an information technology.
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danas postaje informacijskom tehnologijom.
11:14
As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.
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Kao što smo vidjeli, mi transformiramo naša tijela u kiborge.
11:17
Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,
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Svake godine, tisuće umjetnih pužnica,
11:20
diabetic pumps, pacemakers
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dijabetičkih pumpi, pacemakera
11:22
and defibrillators are being implanted in people.
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i defibrilatora se implantira u ljude.
11:24
In the United States, there are 60,000 people
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U SAD-u 60,000 ljudi
11:27
who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.
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ima pacemakere koji se spajaju na internet.
11:30
The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance
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Defibrilatori omogućuju doktorima da na daljinu
11:33
to give a shock to a heart
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daju impuls srcu
11:35
in case a patient needs it.
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ukoliko je to pacijentu potrebno.
11:37
But if you don't need it,
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Ali ako ne trebate impuls,
11:39
and somebody else gives you the shock,
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a netko drugi vam ga da,
11:41
it's not a good thing.
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to nije dobra stvar.
11:45
Of course, we're going to go even deeper than the human body.
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Naravno, ići ćemo i dalje od ljudskog tijela.
11:48
We're going down to the cellular level these days.
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Ovih dana ćemo dostići i razinu stanica.
11:50
Up until this point, all the technologies
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Sve do ovog trena, sve tehnologije
11:53
I've been talking about have been silicon-based, ones and zeroes,
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o kojima sam pričao su bazirane na siliciju, jedinicama i nulama,
11:56
but there's another operating system out there:
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ali postoji i jedan drugi operativni sustav:
11:59
the original operating system, DNA.
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originalni operativni sustav, DNK.
12:04
And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system
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A hakerima je DNK samo još jedan operativni sustav
12:08
waiting to be hacked.
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koji čeka da bude hakiran.
12:10
It's a great challenge for them.
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To im predstavlja veliki izazov.
12:12
There are people already working on hacking the software of life,
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Već postoje ljudi koji rade na hakiranju programa života,
12:15
and while most of them are doing this to great good
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2957
i dok većina to radi za opće dobro,
12:18
and to help us all,
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i kako bi svima nama pomogli,
12:19
some won't be.
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neki neće raditi za taj cilj.
12:23
So how will criminals abuse this?
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Kako će onda kriminalci zlouporabiti to?
12:25
Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.
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Pa, sa sintetičkom biologijom mogu se raditi poprilično zgodne stvari.
12:27
For example, I predict that we will move away
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Naprimjer, predviđam da ćemo se udaljiti
12:30
from a plant-based narcotics world
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od narkotika baziranih na biljkama
12:33
to a synthetic one. Why do you need the plants anymore?
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prema sintetičkima. Zašto nam uopće i treba više biljka?
12:36
You can just take the DNA code from marijuana
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Možemo jednostavno uzeti DNK marihuane,
12:39
or poppies or coca leaves
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maka ili lišća od koke
12:44
and cut and past that gene
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i kopirati te prenijeti taj gen
12:46
and put it into yeast,
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u kvasac,
12:49
and you can take those yeast
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koji ćemo zatim iskoristiti
12:50
and make them make the cocaine for you,
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da radi kokain za nas,
12:54
or the marijuana, or any other drug.
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ili marihuanu, ili bilo koju drugu drogu.
12:58
So how we use yeast in the future
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Načini na koji ćemo koristiti kvasac u budućnosti
12:59
is going to be really interesting.
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bit će zbilja zanimljivi.
13:01
In fact, we may have some really interesting bread and beer
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U biti, možda ćemo imati stvarno zanimljiv kruh i pivo
13:04
as we go into this next century.
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kada budemo kročili kroz sljedeće stoljeće.
13:07
The cost of sequencing the human genome is dropping precipitously.
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Cijena sekvenciranja ljudskog genoma se strahovito smanjuje.
13:11
It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,
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Nekoć je pratila krivulju Moorovog zakona,
13:14
but then in 2008, something changed.
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ali se onda u 2008. nešto promjenilo.
13:16
The technologies got better,
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Tehnologije su se poboljšale
13:17
and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace
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i sada se sekvenciranje DNK vrši po krivulji
13:21
five times that of Moore's Law.
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pet puta bržoj od one od Moorovog zakona.
13:24
That has significant implications for us.
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To ima važne implikacije za nas.
13:28
It took us 30 years to get from
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Trebalo je proći 30 godina
13:31
the introduction of the personal computer
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od uvođenja osobnog kompjutera
13:33
to the level of cybercrime we have today,
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do razine cyber kriminala koji imamo danas,
13:35
but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,
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ali pogledajte kako se brzo biologija razvija,
13:39
and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,
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a poznavajući kriminalce i teroriste kako ih ja poznajem,
13:41
we may get there a lot faster
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mogli bismo se susresti puno brže
13:43
with biocrime in the future.
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s bio-kriminalom u budućnosti.
13:45
It will be easy for anybody to go ahead
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Za svakogaće biti lakše
13:47
and print their own bio-virus,
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isprintati svoji bio-virus,
13:49
enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,
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poboljšanu verziju ebole ili antraksa,
13:52
weaponized flu.
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gripe kao biološkog oružja.
13:54
We recently saw a case where some researchers
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Nedavno smo svjedočili slučaju gdje su neki istraživaći
13:57
made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.
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pojačali virus ptičje gripe H5N1.
14:02
It already has a 70 percent mortality rate
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Već sada ima stopu smrtnosti od 70%,
14:05
if you get it, but it's hard to get.
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ako se zarazite, ali teško se zaraziti.
14:07
Engineers, by moving around a small number
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Inžinjeri su, radeći male preinake
14:09
of genetic changes,
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u genetskom kodu,
14:11
were able to weaponize it
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mogli napraviti oružje od njega
14:13
and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,
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na način da se ljudi puno lakše zaraze njime,
14:16
so that not thousands of people would die,
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tako da ne bi doveo do smrti tisuće ljudi,
14:18
but tens of millions.
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već desetaka milijuna.
14:20
You see, you can go ahead and create
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Vidite, možete stvoriti
14:22
new pandemics, and the researchers who did this
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1981
nove pandemije, i istraživači koji su ovo učinili
14:24
were so proud of their accomplishments,
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1512
bili su jako ponosni na svoja postignuća,
14:26
they wanted to publish it openly
306
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1889
željeli su to objaviti javno
14:28
so that everybody could see this
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2103
tako da svi to mogu mogu vidjeti
14:30
and get access to this information.
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i dobiti informacije o tome.
14:34
But it goes deeper than that.
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Ali ide i dublje od toga.
14:36
DNA researcher Andrew Hessel
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1942
DNK istraživač Andrew Hessel
14:38
has pointed out quite rightly
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je s pravom skrenuo pozornost
14:39
that if you can use cancer treatments,
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na činjenicu da ukoliko se može koristiti liječenje raka,
14:41
modern cancer treatments,
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moderno liječenje raka,
14:43
to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells
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2949
gdje se napadaju stanice raka ne dirajući sve
14:46
around it intact,
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1656
ostale okolne stanice,
14:47
then you can also go after any one person's cell.
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4144
tada se mogu ciljati i samo stanice određene osobe.
14:51
Personalized cancer treatments
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1978
Personalizirajuće liječenje raka
14:53
are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,
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2614
je samo druga strana medalje personalizirajućih biooružja,
14:56
which means you can attack any one individual,
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3386
što znači da se može napasti bilo koja osoba,
14:59
including all the people in this picture.
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uključujući sve osobe s ove slike.
15:04
How will we protect them in the future?
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4128
Kako ćemo ih obraniti u budućnosti?
15:08
What to do? What to do about all this?
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Što učiniti? Što učiniti oko svega ovoga?
15:10
That's what I get asked all the time.
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Takva pitanja mi stalno postavljaju.
15:13
For those of you who follow me on Twitter,
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Za one koji me prate na Twitteru,
15:15
I will be tweeting out the answer later on today. (Laughter)
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4530
postavit ću odgovor kasnije popodne. (Smijeh)
15:19
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,
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2635
U biti, stvar je malo kompleksnija od toga
15:22
and there are no magic bullets.
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2079
i ne postoji čarobni napitak.
15:24
I don't have all the answers,
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1712
Ne posjedujem sve odgovore,
15:26
but I know a few things.
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1664
ali znam nekoliko stvari.
15:27
In the wake of 9/11,
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Odmah nakon 11. rujna,
15:30
the best security minds
331
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2790
najbolji sigurnosni mozgovi,
15:33
put together all their innovation
332
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1984
sakupili su sve svoje inovacije
15:35
and this is what they created for security.
333
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4139
i ovo je ono što su stvorili za sigurnost.
15:39
If you're expecting the people who built this to protect you
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4021
Ukoliko očekuješ da će te ljudi koji su stvorili ovo
15:43
from the coming robopocalypse — (Laughter)
335
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3716
obraniti od nadolazeće roboapokalipse - (Smijeh)
15:47
— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)
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2952
- bolje ti je da imaš rezervni plan. (Smijeh)
15:49
Just saying. Just think about that. (Applause)
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6199
Samo kažem. Razmislite o tome. (Pljesak)
15:56
Law enforcement is currently a closed system.
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Provođenje zakona je trenutno zatvoreni sustav.
15:59
It's nation-based, while the threat is international.
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Nacionalno je baziran, dok je prijetnja internacionalna.
16:01
Policing doesn't scale globally. At least, it hasn't,
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3948
Policija ne djeluje globalno. Barem nije do sada,
16:05
and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences
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4283
i trenutni sustavi oružja, granične kontrole, velikih vrata i ograda
16:10
are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.
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3111
su zastarjeli u odnosu na svijet prema kojemu se krećemo.
16:13
So how might we prepare for some of these specific threats,
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Kako se možemo pripremiti na neke od ovih specifičnih prijetnji,
16:15
like attacking a president or a prime minister?
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poput napada na predsjednika ili premijera?
16:17
This would be the natural government response,
345
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2137
Ovo bi bila normalna reakcija vlade,
16:20
to hide away all our government leaders
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2277
sakriti negdje sve vladine vođe
16:22
in hermetically sealed bubbles.
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1811
u hermetički zatvorene balone.
16:24
But this is not going to work.
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1832
Ali to neće funkcionirati.
16:25
The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.
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Trošak sekvenciranja DNK će biti trivijalan.
16:29
Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.
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Svi će ga raditi i svi ćemo ga imati u budućnosti.
16:32
So maybe there's a more radical way that we can look at this.
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3453
Dakle, možda postoji radikalniji pristup kako gledati na sve to.
16:35
What happens if we were to take
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Što bi se dogodilo kada bismo uzeli
16:37
the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,
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3200
DNK predsjednika, ili kralja ili kraljice,
16:40
and put it out to a group of a few hundred
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2336
i dali ga na raspolaganje grupi od nekoliko stotina
16:43
trusted researchers so they could
355
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1896
istraživača od povjerenja kako bi ga mogli
16:45
study that DNA and do penetration testing against it
356
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2936
istražiti i izvršiti testiranja na njemu
16:48
as a means of helping our leaders?
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2208
kao pomoć našim vođama?
16:50
Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?
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2257
A što da ga damo tisućama?
16:52
Or, controversially, and not without its risks,
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Ili, kontroverznije, i ne bez rizika,
16:55
what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?
360
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2859
što bi se dogodilo kada bismo ga dali cijeloj javnosti?
16:58
Then we could all be engaged in helping.
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3565
Tada bismo svi bili uključeni u pomaganje.
17:01
We've already seen examples of this working well.
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Već smo vidjeli primjere kada je to funkcioniralo.
17:04
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
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Projekt za izvještavanje o organiziranom kriminalu i korupciji,
17:07
is staffed by journalists and citizens
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na kojemu rade novinari i građani
17:08
where they are crowd-sourcing
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koji dobivaju podatke od velikih grupa ljudi
17:10
what dictators and terrorists are doing
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o tome što diktatori i teroristi rade
17:13
with public funds around the world,
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s javnim sredstvima diljem svijeta.
17:14
and, in a more dramatic case,
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Dramatičniji slučaj
17:16
we've seen in Mexico,
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vidjeli smo u Meksiku,
17:18
a country that has been racked
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zemlji koja je izmučena
17:20
by 50,000 narcotics-related murders
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od 50,000 ubojstava povezanim s narkoticima
17:24
in the past six years.
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u posljednjih šest godina.
17:26
They're killing so many people
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Ubijaju toliko ljudi
17:27
they can't even afford to bury them all
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da si ne mogu ni priuštiti da ih sve sahrane
17:29
in anything but these unmarked graves
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u bilo čemu osim u neobilježenim grobovima
17:31
like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.
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kao što su ovi izvan Ciudad Juareza.
17:35
What can we do about this? The government has proven ineffective.
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Što možemo napraviti u vezi toga? Vlada se pokazala neučinkovitom.
17:38
So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,
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Tako u Meksiku, građani, stavljajući sebe u veliki rizik,
17:41
are fighting back to build an effective solution.
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uzvraćaju udarac kako bi izgradili efektivno rješenje.
17:45
They're crowd-mapping the activities of the drug dealers.
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Grupno mapiraju aktivnosti dilera drogom.
17:49
Whether or not you realize it,
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Shvaćate li vi to ili ne,
17:51
we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,
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nalazimo se u praskozorju utrke za tehnološkim naoružanjem,
17:55
an arms race between people
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utrke u naoružanju između ljudi
17:56
who are using technology for good
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koji koriste tehnologiju za dobro
17:58
and those who are using it for ill.
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i onih koji je koriste za loše.
18:00
The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now.
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Prijetnja je ozbiljna, a vrijeme za pripremu je sad.
18:05
I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.
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Mogu vam jamčiti da su teroristi i kriminalci već spremni.
18:08
My personal belief is that,
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Moje osobno mišljenje jest
18:10
rather than having a small, elite force
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da umjesto da imamo malu, elitnu jedinicu
18:12
of highly trained government agents
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visoko istreniranih vladinih agenata
18:14
here to protect us all,
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koji su tu da nam pomognu,
18:16
we're much better off
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bilo bi nam puno bolje
18:18
having average and ordinary citizens
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da imamo prosječne i obične građane
18:20
approaching this problem as a group
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koji pristupaju problemu kao grupa
18:22
and seeing what we can do.
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i vide što mi možemo učiniti.
18:23
If we all do our part,
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Ukoliko svatko od nas radi svoj dio,
18:25
I think we'll be in a much better space.
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vjerujem da ćemose naći na puno boljem mjestu.
18:27
The tools to change the world
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Alati za promjenu svijeta
18:29
are in everybody's hands.
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nalaze se u rukama svih nas.
18:30
How we use them is not just up to me,
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Kako ćemo ih koristiti nije samo do mene,
18:33
it's up to all of us.
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nego do svih nas.
18:36
This was a technology I would frequently deploy
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Ovo je bila tehnologija koju bih često koristio
18:38
as a police officer.
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kao policijski službenik.
18:40
This technology has become outdated in our current world.
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Ta tehnologija je postala zastarjela u trenutnom svijetu.
18:44
It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,
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Ne povećava se, ne djeluje globalno,
18:47
and it surely doesn't work virtually.
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i definitivno ne funkcionira virtualno.
18:49
We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.
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Svjedočili smo pomaku u obrascima zločina i terorizma.
18:52
They call for a shift to a more open form
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Oni zovu na promjene prema otvorenijim oblicima
18:56
and a more participatory form of law enforcement.
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i prema participativnijim oblicima policije.
19:01
So I invite you to join me.
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Tako da vas zovem da mi se priključite.
19:04
After all, public safety is too important to leave to the professionals.
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Naposljetku, javna zaštita je previše važna da je se prepusti profesionalcima.
19:09
Thank you. (Applause)
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Hvala Vam. (Pljesak)
19:12
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Marc Goodman - Global Security FuturistMarc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented.
Why you should listen
Marc Goodman imagines the future crime and terrorism challenges we will all face as a result of advancing technologies. He thinks deeply about the disruptive security implications of robotics, artificial intelligence, social data, virtual reality and synthetic biology. Technology, he says, is affording exponentially growing power to non-state actors and rogue players, with significant consequences for our common global security. How to respond to these threats? The crime-fighting solution might just lie in crowdsourcing.
Goodman heads the Future Crimes Institute, a think tank and clearinghouse that researches and advises on the security and risk implications of emerging technologies. He also serves as the Global Security Advisor and Chair for Policy and Law at Singularity University.
Marc Goodman | Speaker | TED.com