TEDGlobal 2012
Marc Goodman: A vision of crimes in the future
馬克 顧德曼：對未來犯罪的一個看法
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Readability: 4.3
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世界越來越開放，有好的影響也有危險的影響。馬克 顧德曼描繪出一個很不好的未來，由於科技的快速演進，讓犯罪有機會把我們的世界變的更混亂。
Marc Goodman - Global Security Futurist
Marc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented. Full bio
Marc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I study the future
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我研究犯罪與恐怖主義
00:19
of crime and terrorism,
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未來的發展
00:23
and frankly, I'm afraid.
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坦白說，我蠻害怕的
00:25
I'm afraid by what I see.
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我看到的將來，讓我很擔心
00:27
I sincerely want to believe
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我真心希望
00:29
that technology can bring us
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科技能帶我們到
00:32
the techno-utopia that we've been promised,
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科技烏托邦的願景
00:35
but, you see,
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但，這麼說吧
00:37
I've spent a career in law enforcement,
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我一生都在執法單位
00:40
and that's informed my perspective on things.
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讓我發展出相關看法
00:43
I've been a street police officer,
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我做過基層警員
00:44
an undercover investigator,
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也做過臥底調查員
00:46
a counter-terrorism strategist,
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參與反恐策略的規劃
00:48
and I've worked in more than 70 countries
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我曾在70幾個國家做過相關工作
00:51
around the world.
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遍佈全世界
00:52
I've had to see more than my fair share
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我見識夠多
00:54
of violence and the darker underbelly of society,
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暴力，以及陰暗的社會下層
00:57
and that's informed my opinions.
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我的看法因之成形
01:01
My work with criminals and terrorists
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和罪犯及恐怖份子交手的經驗
01:03
has actually been highly educational.
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非常有教育性
01:05
They have taught me a lot, and I'd like to be able
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我學到許多，在此讓我和大家分享
01:08
to share some of these observations with you.
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我的部分觀察
01:12
Today I'm going to show you the flip side
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今天，我要和各位分享，讓我們嘖嘖稱奇的科技
01:14
of all those technologies that we marvel at,
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也有我們意料不到的另一面
01:18
the ones that we love.
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一樣是我們喜愛的科技
01:20
In the hands of the TED community,
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在TED 社區成員手裡
01:22
these are awesome tools which will bring about
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它們都是很棒的工具
01:25
great change for our world,
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可以給世界帶來很大改變
01:28
but in the hands of suicide bombers,
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但在自殺炸彈客手中
01:31
the future can look quite different.
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卻會讓我們的將來卻完全走樣
01:34
I started observing
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當我年輕時，還是在街上值勤的基層警員時
01:37
technology and how criminals were using it
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我就開始觀察罪犯們如何運用科技
01:38
as a young patrol officer.
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幫助他們犯罪
01:40
In those days, this was the height of technology.
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那時，這些就是最好的科技產品
01:45
Laugh though you will,
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當然你會笑
01:46
all the drug dealers and gang members
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但我碰過的藥頭和幫派份子
01:48
with whom I dealt had one of these
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卻是人手一機
01:50
long before any police officer I knew did.
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比所有我認識的警察都要早
01:54
Twenty years later, criminals are still using
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二十年後，罪犯們
01:57
mobile phones, but they're also building
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還是用手機，但他們也已經建構了
02:01
their own mobile phone networks,
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專屬的私人行動電話網路
02:03
like this one, which has been deployed
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就像各位在此看到的這些
02:06
in all 31 states of Mexico by the narcos.
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在墨西哥全國31省都有，全由毒梟打造建構
02:09
They have a national encrypted
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他們的無線通訊系統
02:12
radio communications system.
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及於全國，所有通訊全部加密
02:15
Think about that.
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想想
02:17
Think about the innovation that went into that.
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想想所需的創新科技
02:20
Think about the infrastructure to build it.
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想想要這需要多龐大基層結構
02:23
And then think about this:
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然後再想想：
02:25
Why can't I get a cell phone signal in San Francisco? (Laughter)
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為什麼在我的手機在舊金山還有訊號的死角
（笑聲）
（笑聲）
02:29
How is this possible? (Laughter) It makes no sense. (Applause)
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這怎麼搞的？（笑聲）一點道理都沒有（掌聲）
02:34
We consistently underestimate
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我們一直都低估
02:35
what criminals and terrorists can do.
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罪犯和恐怖份子的能力
02:38
Technology has made our world
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科技讓我們的世界
02:40
increasingly open, and for the most part,
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越來越開放，大致來說
02:42
that's great, but all of this openness
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這是好事，但我們的的開放
02:44
may have unintended consequences.
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也帶來意想不到的後果
02:46
Consider the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai.
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想想２００８年發生於孟買的恐怖攻擊
02:51
The men that carried that attack out were armed
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恐怖份子配備有
02:54
with AK-47s, explosives and hand grenades.
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AK47步槍，炸藥，以及手榴彈
02:58
They threw these hand grenades
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他們把手榴彈
03:00
at innocent people as they sat eating in cafes
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扔到餐廳吃東西的無辜民眾群中
03:03
and waited to catch trains on their way home from work.
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扔到等火車回家的乘客們當中
03:08
But heavy artillery is nothing new in terrorist operations.
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恐怖行動裡用重軍火並不稀奇
03:11
Guns and bombs are nothing new.
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槍枝和炸彈已屢見不鮮
03:13
What was different this time
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為什麼這一次不一樣
03:15
is the way that the terrorists used
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因為恐怖份子使用
03:17
modern information communications technologies
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現代資訊傳訊科技
03:20
to locate additional victims and slaughter them.
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幫他們找出更多的受害者，殺害他們
03:25
They were armed with mobile phones.
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他們都帶了手機
03:28
They had BlackBerries.
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他們用黑梅機
03:29
They had access to satellite imagery.
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他們能透過衛星接收照片
03:31
They had satellite phones, and they even had night vision goggles.
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他們用衛星電話，甚至用夜視鏡
03:36
But perhaps their greatest innovation was this.
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但他們最厲害的創新是這個：
03:39
We've all seen pictures like this
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我們都看過這樣的相片
03:41
on television and in the news. This is an operations center.
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在電視上，新聞報導裡。這是行動中控中心
03:45
And the terrorists built their very own op center
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恐怖份子也建構自己的中控中心
03:47
across the border in Pakistan,
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設在邊界的另一端，巴基斯坦
03:51
where they monitored the BBC,
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在那裡監視ＢＢＣ的新聞
03:52
al Jazeera, CNN and Indian local stations.
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半島電台，ＣＮＮ，還有印度當地的廣播
03:57
They also monitored the Internet and social media
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他們也監視網際網路，以及社會媒體
04:02
to monitor the progress of their attacks
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掌控他們攻擊的進展
04:04
and how many people they had killed.
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統計他們殺害的人數
04:06
They did all of this in real time.
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全部都是即時掌控
04:09
The innovation of the terrorist operations center
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恐怖份子使用行動中控中心這項創新
04:13
gave terrorists unparalleled situational awareness
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讓他們對事件當場的狀況精準掌握
04:16
and tactical advantage over the police
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享有遠優於警方，政府的戰術優勢
04:19
and over the government.
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這前所未見
04:21
What did they do with this?
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他們怎麼用這些科技呢？
04:23
They used it to great effect.
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非常有效果。
04:25
At one point during the 60-hour siege,
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在60小時僵持中，有一度
04:27
the terrorists were going room to room
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恐怖份子逐房搜索
04:28
trying to find additional victims.
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要找更多的受害者
04:31
They came upon a suite on the top floor
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他們到了旅館頂樓的一間套房
04:33
of the hotel, and they kicked down the door
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破門而入
04:35
and they found a man hiding by his bed.
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找到一個躲在床邊的男人
04:38
And they said to him, "Who are you,
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他們問他: "你是誰
04:40
and what are you doing here?"
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你到這裡做什麼？"
04:41
And the man replied,
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這人回答，
04:43
"I'm just an innocent schoolteacher."
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"我只是個無辜的老師"
04:47
Of course, the terrorists knew
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當然，這些恐怖份子知道
04:49
that no Indian schoolteacher stays at a suite in the Taj.
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印度的老師不可能住的起Taj的頂樓套房
04:53
They picked up his identification,
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他們拿他的身份證件
04:54
and they phoned his name in to the terrorist war room,
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打電話到他們的中控中心通報這男子的名字
04:58
where the terrorist war room Googled him,
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中控中心的人用Google搜索
05:01
and found a picture and called their operatives
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找到一張照片，然後回電給
05:03
on the ground and said,
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在旅館的恐怖份子，問他：
05:04
"Your hostage, is he heavyset?
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"你抓的人，是不是胖胖的,
05:09
Is he bald in front? Does he wear glasses?"
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前額微禿？他戴眼鏡嗎？"
05:14
"Yes, yes, yes," came the answers.
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他回答："是，對，有"
05:18
The op center had found him and they had a match.
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中控中心知道他是誰了
05:20
He was not a schoolteacher.
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他不是老師
05:22
He was the second-wealthiest businessman in India,
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他是印度第二富有的商人
05:25
and after discovering this information,
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有了這項消息後
05:27
the terrorist war room gave the order
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中控中心下令
05:30
to the terrorists on the ground in Mumbai.
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對在孟買現場的恐怖份子下令
05:33
("Kill him.")
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（"把他殺了")
05:36
We all worry about our privacy settings
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我們對我們在臉書上
05:39
on Facebook,
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隱私權設定都非常在意
05:41
but the fact of the matter is,
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但這裡的問題在
05:43
our openness can be used against us.
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我們的開放，可以被人拿來對付我們
05:47
Terrorists are doing this.
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恐怖份子就這麼幹
05:49
A search engine can determine
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搜索引擎可以決定
05:52
who shall live and who shall die.
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我們的生死
05:56
This is the world that we live in.
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這就是我們世界的現實
05:59
During the Mumbai siege,
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在孟買事件裡
06:01
terrorists were so dependent on technology
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恐怖份子非常依賴科技
06:03
that several witnesses reported that
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幾個目擊者描述
06:06
as the terrorists were shooting hostages with one hand,
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這些恐怖份子一手用槍殺人
06:09
they were checking their mobile phone messages
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另一手拿著手機
06:11
in the very other hand.
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檢查收到的訊息
06:13
In the end, 300 people were gravely wounded
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最後，300人重傷
06:17
and over 172 men, women and children
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超過172人，男的，女的，小孩
06:21
lost their lives that day.
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喪失了生命
06:25
Think about what happened.
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想想
06:27
During this 60-hour siege on Mumbai,
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在孟買的60個凶險小時
06:30
10 men armed not just with weapons,
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10個人，配備了不只是武器
06:34
but with technology,
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還配備了科技
06:36
were able to bring a city of 20 million people
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能夠把一個2千萬人口的城市
06:39
to a standstill.
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陷入停滯
06:42
Ten people brought 20 million people
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10個人，讓2千萬人
06:44
to a standstill, and this traveled around the world.
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完全停滯，全世界都看到了
06:48
This is what radicals can do with openness.
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激進份子這般利用我們的開放
06:54
This was done nearly four years ago.
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這是將近四年前發生的事
06:57
What could terrorists do today
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今天的恐怖份子
06:58
with the technologies available that we have?
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又會如何利用最新的科技呢？
07:01
What will they do tomorrow?
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他們明天會怎麼做？
07:04
The ability of one to affect many
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一個人能影響許多人
07:07
is scaling exponentially,
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這種影響能力正以等比級數方式增加
07:09
and it's scaling for good and it's scaling for evil.
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不管是好事，或是壞事，都一樣
07:13
It's not just about terrorism, though.
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這也不光只限於恐怖主義
07:16
There's also been a big paradigm shift in crime.
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犯罪模式也產生變化
07:18
You see, you can now commit more crime as well.
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犯罪規模也變大了
07:22
In the old days, it was a knife and a gun.
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過去，我們用刀用槍
07:25
Then criminals moved to robbing trains.
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然後發展到搶火車
07:27
You could rob 200 people on a train, a great innovation.
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能一次搶火車上200名乘客，這是一大創新
07:31
Moving forward, the Internet
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繼續到今日，有了網際網路
07:32
allowed things to scale even more.
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規模變的更大
07:35
In fact, many of you will remember
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其實，你們大都記得
07:36
the recent Sony PlayStation hack.
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最近發生的索尼PlayStation被駭事件
07:38
In that incident, over 100 million people were robbed.
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超過1億的人被搶了
07:44
Think about that.
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想想
07:46
When in the history of humanity
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人類歷史上
07:48
has it ever been possible for one person
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什麼時候有過這種事
07:50
to rob 100 million?
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一個人搶1億個人？
07:55
Of course, it's not just about stealing things.
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當然，也不全只是偷東西
07:57
There are other avenues of technology
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還有其他科技
07:59
that criminals can exploit.
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罪犯們可以運用
08:01
Many of you will remember this super cute video
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你們大都記上次TED大會時
08:04
from the last TED,
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有段超Q的影片
08:06
but not all quadcopter swarms are so nice and cute.
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但並非所有四螺旋槳直昇機都這麼和善，這麼可愛
08:11
They don't all have drumsticks.
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有些配備的可不是打鼓棒
08:14
Some can be armed with HD cameras
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有些可以配備高解析度（HD）攝影機
08:15
and do countersurveillance on protesters,
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對抗議的人做反情搜
08:18
or, as in this little bit of movie magic,
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或者如這段影片顯示的
08:21
quadcopters can be loaded with firearms
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有些可配備槍械
08:24
and automatic weapons.
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自動武器
08:28
Little robots are cute when they play music to you.
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會播放音樂的小機器人很可愛
08:31
When they swarm and chase you down the block
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但當它們蜂擁而至，追著你在街上跑
08:34
to shoot you, a little bit less so.
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對你射擊，就不那麼可愛了
08:37
Of course, criminals and terrorists weren't the first
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當然，罪犯和恐怖主義份子沒有發明在機器人上裝置武器
08:39
to give guns to robots. We know where that started.
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我們都知道誰是始作俑者
08:42
But they're adapting quickly.
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但他們學的很快
08:43
Recently, the FBI arrested
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最近，聯邦調查局（FBI）在美國逮捕了
08:45
an al Qaeda affiliate in the United States,
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一個凱達組織成員
08:47
who was planning on using these remote-controlled
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他計畫用這些遙控模型飛機
08:49
drone aircraft to fly C4 explosives
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裝上C4塑膠炸藥
08:52
into government buildings in the United States.
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攻擊美國的政府辦公大樓
08:55
By the way, these travel at over 600 miles an hour.
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對了，這些飛機時速高達每小時600英里
09:00
Every time a new technology is being introduced,
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每當任何新科技發明了
09:02
criminals are there to exploit it.
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罪犯就想運用它們
09:05
We've all seen 3D printers.
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我們都看過3D列印裝置
09:06
We know with them that you can print
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用這些裝置
09:08
in many materials ranging from plastic
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配上不同材料，包括塑膠
09:11
to chocolate to metal and even concrete.
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巧克力，金屬，甚至混凝土
09:15
With great precision
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只要夠精細
09:17
I actually was able to make this
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我真的做出了這玩意
09:19
just the other day, a very cute little ducky.
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幾天前剛做的，非常可愛的小鴨
09:25
But I wonder to myself,
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但我進一步想
09:27
for those people that strap bombs to their chests
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對那些把炸彈綁在胸前
09:34
and blow themselves up,
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把自己炸死的炸彈客
09:35
how might they use 3D printers?
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他們會怎麼運用這些3D列表機
09:39
Perhaps like this.
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也許做這玩意
09:43
You see, if you can print in metal,
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看吧，只要能用金屬原料
09:45
you can print one of these,
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你就可以印出這個
09:49
and in fact
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其實
09:55
you can also print one of these too.
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你也可以印出這個東西
10:01
The UK I know has some very strict firearms laws.
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英國的槍械管制法很嚴密
10:05
You needn't bring the gun into the UK anymore.
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你不需要帶枝槍到英國
10:08
You just bring the 3D printer
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只要帶3D列印機
10:09
and print the gun while you're here,
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在英國當地印製即可
10:12
and, of course, the magazines for your bullets.
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當然，也可以印製彈匣
10:15
But as these get bigger in the future,
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將來，這些裝置越來越大
10:17
what other items will you be able to print?
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他們可能會印製些什麼？
10:19
The technologies are allowing bigger printers.
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科技發展讓3D列印機越來越大
10:22
As we move forward,
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我們還在進步
10:24
we'll see new technologies also, like the Internet of Things.
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一直會有更新的科技，就像在網路上的發展
10:26
Every day we're connecting more and more of our lives
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每天都有新東西讓
10:28
to the Internet, which means
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我們的生活和網際網路連結更緊密
10:31
that the Internet of Things will soon be
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這也就是說，這些網際網路的發明
10:35
the Internet of Things To Be Hacked.
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很快也會被「駭」
10:37
All of the physical objects in our space
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我們生活周遭的具體事物
10:39
are being transformed into information technologies,
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都被轉化成為資訊科技
10:42
and that has a radical implication for our security,
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這對我們的安全有非常不同的意涵
10:45
because more connections to more devices
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因為我們連結的東西越多
10:48
means more vulnerabilities.
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代表越多的弱點
10:51
Criminals understand this.
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罪犯們懂
10:53
Terrorists understand this. Hackers understand this.
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恐怖主義份子懂。駭客也懂
10:54
If you control the code, you control the world.
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只要控制程式，你就控制世界
10:58
This is the future that awaits us.
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這是我們的將來
11:02
There has not yet been an operating system
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任何科技，任何作業系統
11:05
or a technology that hasn't been hacked.
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沒有不被「駭」過的
11:08
That's troubling, since the human body itself
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這讓人煩惱，因為人的身體
11:10
is now becoming an information technology.
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也變成了資訊科技
11:14
As we've seen here, we're transforming ourselves into cyborgs.
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就像這裡顯示的，我們把自己一步一步變成了生化機器人
11:17
Every year, thousands of cochlear implants,
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每年都有數以千計的人把內耳助聽器
11:20
diabetic pumps, pacemakers
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胰島素幫浦，心律調整器
11:22
and defibrillators are being implanted in people.
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以及心律復甦電擊器，植入身體
11:24
In the United States, there are 60,000 people
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在美國，有6萬人裝有和網路相連的
11:27
who have a pacemaker that connects to the Internet.
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心律調整器
11:30
The defibrillators allow a physician at a distance
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必要時，醫生可以在遠端
11:33
to give a shock to a heart
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用這些電擊復甦器
11:35
in case a patient needs it.
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電擊人們的心臟
11:37
But if you don't need it,
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但假如你不需要電擊
11:39
and somebody else gives you the shock,
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但有人卻故意電擊你呢？
11:41
it's not a good thing.
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這可不妙
11:45
Of course, we're going to go even deeper than the human body.
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當然，我們越來越深入人體
11:48
We're going down to the cellular level these days.
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最近，我們還進到了人體細胞的層次
11:50
Up until this point, all the technologies
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一直到現在為止，我討論的
11:53
I've been talking about have been silicon-based, ones and zeroes,
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都是有關電子科技，0與1
11:56
but there's another operating system out there:
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但還有另一種作業系統
11:59
the original operating system, DNA.
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人類原來的作業系統，DNA
12:04
And to hackers, DNA is just another operating system
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對駭客而言，DNA只是另一個作業系統
12:08
waiting to be hacked.
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等著他們「駭」
12:10
It's a great challenge for them.
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對他們是不小的挑戰
12:12
There are people already working on hacking the software of life,
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已經有人在研究如何「駭」入生命的程式
12:15
and while most of them are doing this to great good
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雖然大部分的研究都是為了人類好
12:18
and to help us all,
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幫助全人類
12:19
some won't be.
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但有些可不
12:23
So how will criminals abuse this?
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那罪犯們會如何濫用這些？
12:25
Well, with synthetic biology you can do some pretty neat things.
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用合成生物方法，可以做出相當厲害的的東西
12:27
For example, I predict that we will move away
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舉例來說，我預測我們將不再依賴
12:30
from a plant-based narcotics world
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以植物做出的麻醉藥品
12:33
to a synthetic one. Why do you need the plants anymore?
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而改用人工合成。那你還需要植物幹啥？
12:36
You can just take the DNA code from marijuana
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你只要把大麻的DNA序列
12:39
or poppies or coca leaves
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或罌粟花，可可葉的DNA
12:44
and cut and past that gene
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只要複製這些基因
12:46
and put it into yeast,
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放到酵母裡
12:49
and you can take those yeast
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你就可以用這些酵母
12:50
and make them make the cocaine for you,
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做出古柯鹼
12:54
or the marijuana, or any other drug.
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大麻，或其他毒品
12:58
So how we use yeast in the future
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所以，將來人們如何使用酵母
12:59
is going to be really interesting.
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會非常有趣
13:01
In fact, we may have some really interesting bread and beer
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其實，我們已有些很不一樣的麵包，啤酒
13:04
as we go into this next century.
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當我們步入21世紀
13:07
The cost of sequencing the human genome is dropping precipitously.
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人類基因排序的成本大幅滑落
13:11
It was proceeding at Moore's Law pace,
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過去進展的速度和半導體業的摩爾定律預測的一樣快
13:14
but then in 2008, something changed.
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但在2008，發生了改變
13:16
The technologies got better,
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科技變的更好
13:17
and now DNA sequencing is proceeding at a pace
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現在DNA排序解讀的速度
13:21
five times that of Moore's Law.
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正以摩爾定律的五倍速度進行
13:24
That has significant implications for us.
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這對我們有很重要的影響
13:28
It took us 30 years to get from
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自個人電腦發明
13:31
the introduction of the personal computer
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到今天的網路犯罪
13:33
to the level of cybercrime we have today,
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走了30年
13:35
but looking at how biology is proceeding so rapidly,
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但生物科技進展這麼快速
13:39
and knowing criminals and terrorists as I do,
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根據我對罪犯及恐怖份子的了解
13:41
we may get there a lot faster
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我們走到將來生物犯罪
13:43
with biocrime in the future.
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的速度要快的多
13:45
It will be easy for anybody to go ahead
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將來任何人都可以
13:47
and print their own bio-virus,
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隨意製造他們發明的生物病毒
13:49
enhanced versions of ebola or anthrax,
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更進階的依波拉病毒，炭疽病毒
13:52
weaponized flu.
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把流感變成武器
13:54
We recently saw a case where some researchers
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最近，我們也看到有研究人員
13:57
made the H5N1 avian influenza virus more potent.
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合成了更有殺傷力的H5N1的禽流感病毒
14:02
It already has a 70 percent mortality rate
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可以造成7成的死亡率
14:05
if you get it, but it's hard to get.
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只要你能拿到。當然，這不容易拿到。
14:07
Engineers, by moving around a small number
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工程師只要小規模地
14:09
of genetic changes,
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操弄改變基因
14:11
were able to weaponize it
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就可以把它們變成武器
14:13
and make it much more easy for human beings to catch,
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讓這些病毒更容易為人感染
14:16
so that not thousands of people would die,
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這樣就不只是幾千人的傷亡
14:18
but tens of millions.
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1713
而是幾千萬人的傷亡了
14:20
You see, you can go ahead and create
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所以，你可以製造新的瘟疫
14:22
new pandemics, and the researchers who did this
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1981
這些研究人員
14:24
were so proud of their accomplishments,
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對他們的成就感到很驕傲
14:26
they wanted to publish it openly
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1889
他們想要把他們的研究公開
14:28
so that everybody could see this
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讓大眾都可以看到
14:30
and get access to this information.
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也可以接觸這些研究資料
14:34
But it goes deeper than that.
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但現在已經又更進一步了
14:36
DNA researcher Andrew Hessel
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研究DNA的專家，安得魯 黑賽爾
14:38
has pointed out quite rightly
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也很有理由地指出了
14:39
that if you can use cancer treatments,
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只要能以治療癌症的方法
14:41
modern cancer treatments,
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現代癌症治療方法
14:43
to go after one cell while leaving all the other cells
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只針對特定細胞，而不影響這細胞
14:46
around it intact,
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周邊的其他細胞
14:47
then you can also go after any one person's cell.
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當然你也可以針對任何特定人士的細胞
14:51
Personalized cancer treatments
317
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讓癌症治療「個人化」
14:53
are the flip side of personalized bioweapons,
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是「個人化的生化武器」的對立面
14:56
which means you can attack any one individual,
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意味你可以攻擊任意個人
14:59
including all the people in this picture.
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包括這相片中的每一個人
15:04
How will we protect them in the future?
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你在未來要怎麼保護顯要人物？
15:08
What to do? What to do about all this?
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怎麼辦呀？該怎麼辦？
15:10
That's what I get asked all the time.
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一直都有人問我這個問題
15:13
For those of you who follow me on Twitter,
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假如你有用推特
15:15
I will be tweeting out the answer later on today. (Laughter)
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4530
我今天稍晚會把答案發在推特上。
（笑聲）
（笑聲）
15:19
Actually, it's a bit more complex than that,
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2635
其實，這也沒那麼簡單
15:22
and there are no magic bullets.
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也沒有特效藥
15:24
I don't have all the answers,
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1712
我不是萬事通，對所有事情都有解
15:26
but I know a few things.
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但我知道
15:27
In the wake of 9/11,
330
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2697
9/11發生後
15:30
the best security minds
331
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2790
最棒的維安專家
15:33
put together all their innovation
332
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1984
把他們所想到的創意兜在一起
15:35
and this is what they created for security.
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搞出了這種維安系統
15:39
If you're expecting the people who built this to protect you
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假如你想靠弄出這套系統的這些「專家」保護你
15:43
from the coming robopocalypse — (Laughter)
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3716
來逃過未來「機器人滅亡人類」的慘劇 -- （笑聲）
15:47
— uh, you may want to have a backup plan. (Laughter)
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-- 嗯，你或許該準備個逃命備案
（笑聲）
（笑聲）
15:49
Just saying. Just think about that. (Applause)
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我只是說說罷了。你們可以想想。 （掌聲）
15:56
Law enforcement is currently a closed system.
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執法機關目前還是封閉體系
15:59
It's nation-based, while the threat is international.
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以國家為單位，但安全的威脅是全球性的
16:01
Policing doesn't scale globally. At least, it hasn't,
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3948
警察運作沒全球化，至少，目前還沒有。
16:05
and our current system of guns, border guards, big gates and fences
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既有體系中的武器，巡邊員，關卡，以及藩籬
16:10
are outdated in the new world into which we're moving.
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在我們即將進入的新世界中都落伍了
16:13
So how might we prepare for some of these specific threats,
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那我們該如何應付這些威脅？
16:15
like attacking a president or a prime minister?
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像是針對單一總統，首相的攻擊？
16:17
This would be the natural government response,
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政府的自然反應會把
16:20
to hide away all our government leaders
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所有的政府領袖全藏起來
16:22
in hermetically sealed bubbles.
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藏在封閉的與世隔離的泡泡中
16:24
But this is not going to work.
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但這沒用
16:25
The cost of doing a DNA sequence is going to be trivial.
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DNA序列解碼的成本越來越低
16:29
Anybody will have it and we will all have them in the future.
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任何人都負擔的起DNA序列解碼，每個人未來都有自己的DNA碼
16:32
So maybe there's a more radical way that we can look at this.
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那也許我們可以用更極端的方法來處理這問題
16:35
What happens if we were to take
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假如我們把
16:37
the President's DNA, or a king or queen's,
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3200
總統的 DNA 或哪個國王或女王的DNA，
16:40
and put it out to a group of a few hundred
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提供給幾百個
16:43
trusted researchers so they could
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我們信任的研究人員，讓他們
16:45
study that DNA and do penetration testing against it
356
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研究，並做之實驗各項攻擊的可能
16:48
as a means of helping our leaders?
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作為幫助我們保護領袖的方法，這會怎樣？
16:50
Or what if we sent it out to a few thousand?
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或者，如果我們把DNA發給幾千個研究人員？
16:52
Or, controversially, and not without its risks,
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或許，不管爭議多大，風險多大
16:55
what happens if we just gave it to the whole public?
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我們把DNA公布給大眾會怎樣？
16:58
Then we could all be engaged in helping.
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那我們都可以動手幫忙囉
17:01
We've already seen examples of this working well.
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這樣作，很成功的例子也有
17:04
The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project
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「組織犯罪及貪腐報告計畫」
17:07
is staffed by journalists and citizens
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成員包括記者和公民
17:08
where they are crowd-sourcing
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他們藉由群眾提供的情報
17:10
what dictators and terrorists are doing
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揭露全球獨裁者和恐怖份子
17:13
with public funds around the world,
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如何濫用公共資金
17:14
and, in a more dramatic case,
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有一個更具戲劇性的例子，
17:16
we've seen in Mexico,
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墨西哥在過去6年間
17:18
a country that has been racked
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受五萬件和毒品
17:20
by 50,000 narcotics-related murders
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有關的謀殺案
17:24
in the past six years.
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荼毒。
17:26
They're killing so many people
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他們殺死那麼多人
17:27
they can't even afford to bury them all
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甚至來不及把死者好好安葬
17:29
in anything but these unmarked graves
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好多人都被埋在亂葬岡成了無名墓
17:31
like this one outside of Ciudad Juarez.
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就像這些埋在蘇達 華芮茲外的墳場的這些墓
17:35
What can we do about this? The government has proven ineffective.
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我們能做些什麼？連政府都已證明沒用。
17:38
So in Mexico, citizens, at great risk to themselves,
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墨西哥的公民們，冒著極大風險
17:41
are fighting back to build an effective solution.
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展開反擊，建立一個有效的解決方案。
17:45
They're crowd-mapping the activities of the drug dealers.
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他們利用群眾找出毒販們的行蹤
17:49
Whether or not you realize it,
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不管你是否意識到，
17:51
we are at the dawn of a technological arms race,
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我們處於了科技軍備競賽的初期階段
17:55
an arms race between people
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這場軍備競賽的兩方
17:56
who are using technology for good
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一邊想用科技做好事
17:58
and those who are using it for ill.
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一邊則是要用科技行惡
18:00
The threat is serious, and the time to prepare for it is now.
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我們面對嚴重威脅，此時正該戮力準備
18:05
I can assure you that the terrorists and criminals are.
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我向你保證，恐怖分子和罪犯們也正在準備
18:08
My personal belief is that,
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我個人認為
18:10
rather than having a small, elite force
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與其部署為數不多，訓練有素
18:12
of highly trained government agents
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的政府菁英武力
18:14
here to protect us all,
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來保護我們
18:16
we're much better off
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不如
18:18
having average and ordinary citizens
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由我們一般公民
18:20
approaching this problem as a group
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一起來面對處理這個問題
18:22
and seeing what we can do.
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找出我們能做的事
18:23
If we all do our part,
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假如我們都盡一分力
18:25
I think we'll be in a much better space.
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我相信我們的處境會更好
18:27
The tools to change the world
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改變世界的工具
18:29
are in everybody's hands.
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在我們每個人的手上。
18:30
How we use them is not just up to me,
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我們怎麼用這些工具，不是我一個人說了算
18:33
it's up to all of us.
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我們一起說了才算
18:36
This was a technology I would frequently deploy
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這是一個老科技，我當警察時
18:38
as a police officer.
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經常使用
18:40
This technology has become outdated in our current world.
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在當前的世界裡，這項科技已經過時了
18:44
It doesn't scale, it doesn't work globally,
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無法大規模運用，也無法全球運用
18:47
and it surely doesn't work virtually.
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在虛擬世界裡，更是沒用武之地
18:49
We've seen paradigm shifts in crime and terrorism.
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我們已經看到罪犯，恐怖份子改變作案方式
18:52
They call for a shift to a more open form
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我們需要更開放的形式
18:56
and a more participatory form of law enforcement.
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一種大眾都參與的執法方式
19:01
So I invite you to join me.
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所以我邀請你與我攜手合作
19:04
After all, public safety is too important to leave to the professionals.
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畢竟，公共安全太重要了，光由專業人士來扛是不夠的
19:09
Thank you. (Applause)
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謝謝。（掌聲）
19:12
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Marc Goodman - Global Security FuturistMarc Goodman works to prevent future crimes and acts of terrorism, even those security threats not yet invented.
Why you should listen
Marc Goodman imagines the future crime and terrorism challenges we will all face as a result of advancing technologies. He thinks deeply about the disruptive security implications of robotics, artificial intelligence, social data, virtual reality and synthetic biology. Technology, he says, is affording exponentially growing power to non-state actors and rogue players, with significant consequences for our common global security. How to respond to these threats? The crime-fighting solution might just lie in crowdsourcing.
Goodman heads the Future Crimes Institute, a think tank and clearinghouse that researches and advises on the security and risk implications of emerging technologies. He also serves as the Global Security Advisor and Chair for Policy and Law at Singularity University.
Marc Goodman | Speaker | TED.com