TED2013
Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of growth
罗伯特·戈登: 创新的死亡，增长的结束。
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,198,030 views
过去两个世纪，美国经济迅速增长。我们目前是否到了经济增长的尽头？经济学家罗伯特·戈登 举出了四个美国经济增长速度下滑的原因，并详细讲述了原因例如大量贷款和不断增长的不平等现象。这些使得经济出现停滞，人类无法创造出更伟大的发明。建议同时观看来自埃里克·布吕诺尔夫松的对立观点。
Robert J. Gordon - Economist
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy. Full bio
Robert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
That's how we traveled in the year 1900.
0
713
2709
1900年，人们是这样出行的。
00:15
That's an open buggy. It doesn't have heating.
1
3422
2369
这是一个敞篷车，它没有供暖设备，
00:17
It doesn't have air conditioning.
2
5791
1629
没有空调，
00:19
That horse is pulling it along
3
7420
2057
只有马拉着。
00:21
at one percent of the speed of sound,
4
9477
2298
以百分之一的光速向前行驶。
00:23
and the rutted dirt road
5
11775
1752
一旦下雨，这布满车辙与尘土路
00:25
turns into a quagmire of mud anytime it rains.
6
13527
4382
将变成充满烂泥的沼泽地。
00:29
That's a Boeing 707.
7
17909
2745
这是一架波音707，
00:32
Only 60 years later, it travels
8
20654
2301
仅仅60年之后，
00:34
at 80 percent of the speed of sound,
9
22955
2217
它以80%的光速飞行。
00:37
and we don't travel any faster today
10
25172
2633
这是迄今为止人类能达到的最快速度。
00:39
because commercial supersonic air travel
11
27805
3139
著名的超音速商业旅游公司
00:42
turned out to be a bust.
12
30944
1969
如今也已破产，
00:44
So I started wondering and pondering,
13
32913
2552
这不禁让我思考：
00:47
could it be that the best years of American economic growth
14
35465
3022
美国经济的繁荣年代
00:50
are behind us?
15
38487
1659
是否已成为历史了呢？
00:52
And that leads to the suggestion, maybe economic growth
16
40146
4479
这个疑问引出了一个细微的迹象：
00:56
is almost over.
17
44625
2227
或许经济增长已经停止了。
00:58
Some of the reasons for this are not really very controversial.
18
46852
3762
得出此结论的一部分原因无可置否。
01:02
There are four headwinds that are just hitting
19
50614
2374
美国经济正遭遇着四个方面的打压。
01:04
the American economy in the face.
20
52988
2385
它们分别是：
01:07
They're demographics, education, debt and inequality.
21
55373
4658
人口，教育，债务以及不平等。
01:12
They're powerful enough to cut growth in half.
22
60031
3633
这些问题严峻到能使经济增长速度减半。
01:15
So we need a lot of innovation to offset this decline.
23
63664
4658
我们需要大量创新来抵抗经济衰落，
01:20
And here's my theme: Because of the headwinds,
24
68322
2768
这也就引出了我今天演讲的主题：面临当前的不利形势，
01:23
if innovation continues to be as powerful as it has been
25
71090
2681
如果创新的力量仍和过去150年一样强大，
01:25
in the last 150 years, growth is cut in half.
26
73771
3867
经济增长速度也只能是减半，
01:29
If innovation is less powerful,
27
77638
2711
如果创新程度弱于以往，
01:32
invents less great, wonderful things,
28
80349
2454
无法创造出更伟大更美好的事物，
01:34
then growth is going to be even lower than half of history.
29
82803
4010
那么经济增长速度连过去的一半都达不到。
01:38
Now here's eight centuries of economic growth.
30
86813
3155
这是八世纪的经济增长图，
01:41
The vertical axis is just percent per year of growth,
31
89968
3664
纵坐标显示每年经济增长的百分点，
01:45
zero percent a year, one percent a year, two percent a year.
32
93632
3123
第一年零增长，1%增长率，2%增长率
01:48
The white line is for the U.K., and then the U.S.
33
96755
2900
白色的线代表英国，然后美国
01:51
takes over as the leading nation in the year 1900,
34
99655
2531
超过英国成为20世纪的领先强国。
01:54
when the line switches to red.
35
102186
1491
当线条转为红色时，
01:55
You'll notice that, for the first four centuries,
36
103677
1986
你会发现前四个世纪
01:57
there's hardly any growth at all, just 0.2 percent.
37
105663
3870
经济几乎没有增长，只有可怜的0.2%增长率，
02:01
Then growth gets better and better.
38
109533
1619
在这之后经济越来越好。
02:03
It maxes out in the 1930s, '40s and '50s,
39
111152
2978
在20世纪30.40.和50年代出现经济增长高峰，
02:06
and then it starts slowing down, and here's a cautionary note.
40
114130
3757
在这之后，增长速度减慢。值得注意的是，
02:09
That last downward notch in the red line
41
117887
2496
红色线条中最后的下降曲线
02:12
is not actual data.
42
120383
2231
并非真实的数据，
02:14
That is a forecast that I made six years ago
43
122614
3140
那只是我在六年前对经济的预测，
02:17
that growth would slow down to 1.3 percent.
44
125754
2629
我那时估计经济增长速度会减缓到1.3%
02:20
But you know what the actual facts are?
45
128383
2010
但真实数据是如何呢？
02:22
You know what the growth in per-person income has been
46
130393
1813
在场有谁知道在过去的六年内美国人均收入
02:24
in the United States in the last six years?
47
132206
2892
增长了多少呢？
02:27
Negative.
48
135098
2340
答案是负增长。
02:29
This led to a fantasy.
49
137438
2271
这便导致了一场幻觉。
02:31
What if I try to fit a curved line to this historical record?
50
139709
5246
如果我要在这个历史记录中安置一条曲线结果会怎么样呢？
02:36
I can make the curved line end anywhere I wanted,
51
144955
3968
我能将曲线终止在任何地方，
02:40
but I decided I would end it at 0.2,
52
148923
2794
但我估计会降到0.2%
02:43
just like the U.K. growth for the first four centuries.
53
151717
4825
就像英国在前四世纪的增长速度一样。
02:48
Now the history that we've achieved is that we've grown
54
156542
3364
从1891年到2007年，美国经济
02:51
at 2.0 percent per year over the whole period,
55
159906
4061
的年增长率
02:55
1891 to 2007,
56
163967
3188
是2.0%
02:59
and remember it's been a little bit negative since 2007.
57
167155
3624
请记住，2007年以后，经济就出现了负增长，
03:02
But if growth slows down,
58
170779
2305
但如果经济增长速度减慢，
03:05
instead of doubling our standard of living every generation,
59
173084
3983
结果将不是生活水平比以前翻一番。
03:09
Americans in the future can't expect to be twice as well off as their parents,
60
177067
4838
未来的美国人民不能期待生活水平比上一代好一倍，
03:13
or even a quarter [more well off than] their parents.
61
181905
2970
或者只是好上四分之一。
03:16
Now we're going to change and look at the level of per capita income.
62
184875
4365
现在我们转来看看人均收入水平。
03:21
The vertical axis now is thousands of dollars in today's prices.
63
189240
3364
纵轴代表以千为单位的美元，
03:24
You'll notice that in 1891, over on the left,
64
192604
2576
你会发现，在1891年，此图的左半边，
03:27
we were at about 5,000 dollars.
65
195180
1730
美国人均年收入为5000美元。
03:28
Today we're at about 44,000 dollars of total output
66
196910
2905
如今美国人均年收入为
03:31
per member of the population.
67
199815
2667
44000美元。
03:34
Now what if we could achieve that historic
68
202482
2418
如果在1891年后的70年内，
03:36
two-percent growth for the next 70 years?
69
204900
2983
经济年增长率为2%，
03:39
Well, it's a matter of arithmetic.
70
207883
1332
这是一个算法问题。
03:41
Two-percent growth quadruples your standard of living in 70 years.
71
209215
4140
2%的经济增长率会让你的生活水平在70年后翻两番。
03:45
That means we'd go from 44,000 to 180,000.
72
213355
3701
这就意味着到2031年,美国人均年收入将从44000美元增长到180000美元。
03:49
Well, we're not going to do that,
73
217056
2451
然而，我们并不能达到这个目标，
03:51
and the reason is the headwinds.
74
219507
1826
原因就在于经济逆风。
03:53
The first headwind is demographics.
75
221333
1641
第一阵经济逆风就是人口。
03:54
It's a truism that your standard of living
76
222974
2338
众所周知，你的生活水平增长速度要快于生产率，
03:57
rises faster than productivity, rises faster than output per hour,
77
225312
3512
也会快于每小时产量
04:00
if hours per person increased.
78
228824
2610
如果人均工时增加，
04:03
And we got that gift back in the '70s and '80s
79
231434
2502
在二十世纪七十年代和八十年代，当女性加入劳动市场，
04:05
when women entered the labor force.
80
233936
2518
我们的确尝到了甜头。
04:08
But now it's turned around.
81
236454
2237
但是如今形势却出现逆转，
04:10
Now hours per person are shrinking,
82
238691
2200
人均工时不断缩水，
04:12
first because of the retirement of the baby boomers,
83
240891
2874
原因之一是五六十年代婴儿潮出生的人目前已面临退休，
04:15
and second because there's been a very significant
84
243765
4154
原因之二是青壮年男性劳动力的比例
04:19
dropping out of the labor force of prime age adult males
85
247919
3997
大幅度下降，
04:23
who are in the bottom half of the educational distribution.
86
251916
3938
他们是教育分布的下半部。
04:27
The next headwind is education.
87
255854
2161
第二场经济逆风是教育。
04:30
We've got problems all over our educational system
88
258015
2645
我们的教育体系存在大量问题，
04:32
despite Race to the Top.
89
260660
1521
这是除了种族问题之外最严峻的问题
04:34
In college, we've got cost inflation in higher education
90
262181
4082
大学里，高等教育的成本增长不断增长，
04:38
that dwarfs cost inflation in medical care.
91
266263
2912
这种增长使医疗保健中的成本增长显得相形见绌。
04:41
We have in higher education a trillion dollars of student debt,
92
269175
4256
高等教育里，学生欠债高达一万亿美元。
04:45
and our college completion rate
93
273431
2987
而大学完成率却
04:48
is 15 points, 15 percentage points below Canada.
94
276418
6951
低于加拿大15%
04:55
We have a lot of debt.
95
283369
2107
我们欠了大量的债务。
04:57
Our economy grew from 2000 to 2007
96
285476
4982
2000到2007年间的经济增长
05:02
on the back of consumers massively overborrowing.
97
290458
3232
是源于消费者的大量过度借贷。
05:05
Consumers paying off that debt is one of the main reasons
98
293690
2936
消费者将钱用于还债，
05:08
why our economic recovery is so sluggish today.
99
296626
2736
就是如今我们经济萧条的主要原因之一。
05:11
And everybody of course knows
100
299362
1586
众所周知，
05:12
that the federal government debt is growing
101
300948
2129
作为GDP的一部分，
05:15
as a share of GDP at a very rapid rate,
102
303077
3329
联邦政府的贷款正在迅速增加，
05:18
and the only way that's going to stop is some combination
103
306406
3162
而阻止其增长的唯一方式就是
05:21
of faster growth in taxes or slower growth in entitlements,
104
309568
5077
加快税收增长以及减缓津贴增长，
05:26
also called transfer payments.
105
314645
2085
这也被称作转移支付。
05:28
And that gets us down from the 1.5,
106
316730
2169
若将此种方法付诸实际，
05:30
where we've reached for education, down to 1.3.
107
318899
3401
就能将我们的教育 百分比从1.5%降到1.3%。
05:34
And then we have inequality.
108
322300
2418
除此之外，我们还面临不平等这一问题。
05:36
Over the 15 years before the financial crisis,
109
324718
2753
在经济危机发生之前的15年内，
05:39
the growth rate of the bottom 99 percent
110
327471
3266
收入分布底层的99%的增长速度
05:42
of the income distribution was half a point slower
111
330737
3123
比之前我们所讲的平均值
05:45
than the averages we've been talking about before.
112
333860
2776
降低了0.5%。
05:48
All the rest went to the top one percent.
113
336636
2286
剩下的就是顶层的1%。
05:50
So that brings us down to 0.8.
114
338922
2352
平均一下，就是0.8%。
05:53
And that 0.8 is the big challenge.
115
341274
3375
0.8%这个数字对我们来说是个巨大的挑战。
05:56
Are we going to grow at 0.8?
116
344649
2214
我们的经济会以0.8%的速度增长么？
05:58
If so, that's going to require that our inventions
117
346863
2455
要做到这点，我们必须保证今后的发明
06:01
are as important as the ones that happened
118
349318
2347
会与150年前的发明
06:03
over the last 150 years.
119
351665
2918
具有同等的重要意义。
06:06
So let's see what some of those inventions were.
120
354583
4039
让我们先来看看过去有哪些发明：
06:10
If you wanted to read in 1875 at night,
121
358622
3502
在1875年，人们想在晚上读书的话，
06:14
you needed to have an oil or a gas lamp.
122
362124
3322
需要煤油灯或者煤气灯。
06:17
They created pollution, they created odors,
123
365446
2157
这些灯会污染环境，也会散发臭味，
06:19
they were hard to control, the light was dim,
124
367603
2405
这种灯很难控制，光线也比较昏暗，
06:22
and they were a fire hazard.
125
370008
2148
同时也是火灾隐患。
06:24
By 1929, electric light was everywhere.
126
372156
5095
1929年，电灯在美国已经随处可见了。
06:29
We had the vertical city, the invention of the elevator.
127
377251
4149
城市高楼耸立，这个时代又出现了电梯。
06:33
Central Manhattan became possible.
128
381400
2985
曼哈顿中央区成为可能。
06:36
And then, in addition to that, at the same time,
129
384385
3247
与此同时，
06:39
hand tools were replaced by massive electric tools
130
387632
3496
手工操作被大量机械操作取代，
06:43
and hand-powered electric tools,
131
391128
2708
手动的电动工具
06:45
all achieved by electricity.
132
393836
2858
通过电力实现。
06:48
Electricity was also very helpful in liberating women.
133
396694
4213
电力同时也解放了妇女。
06:52
Women, back in the late 19th century,
134
400907
2688
在十九世纪，
06:55
spent two days a week doing the laundry.
135
403595
2656
妇女每个星期要花两天的时间洗衣服。
06:58
They did it on a scrub board.
136
406251
1715
她们首先要在搓衣板上刷衣服，
06:59
Then they had to hang the clothes out to dry.
137
407966
2068
然后将衣服挂起来晾干，
07:02
Then they had to bring them in.
138
410034
1532
然后再把晒干的衣服带回家。
07:03
The whole thing took two days out of the seven-day week.
139
411566
2953
整个过程要花费2天的时间。
07:06
And then we had the electric washing machine.
140
414519
3587
然后，人类发明了电动洗衣机。
07:10
And by 1950, they were everywhere.
141
418106
3074
1950年，洗衣机在美国随处可见
07:13
But the women still had to shop every day,
142
421180
3028
但是妇女每天要买菜，
07:16
but no they didn't, because electricity
143
424208
2292
现在，她们不需要为此操劳了，
07:18
brought us the electric refrigerator.
144
426500
2901
因为现在有了电冰箱。
07:21
Back in the late 19th century, the only source of heat in most homes
145
429401
3192
在19世纪，大多数家庭里唯一的热源是
07:24
was a big fireplace in the kitchen that was used for cooking and heating.
146
432593
4529
厨房里用来烧饭和加热的火堆。
07:29
The bedrooms were cold. They were unheated.
147
437122
2316
房间冰冷，没有热源。
07:31
But by 1929, certainly by 1950,
148
439438
2680
但到了1929年，尤其到了1950年，
07:34
we had central heating everywhere.
149
442118
3892
中央供暖在美国随处可见。
07:38
What about the internal combustion engine,
150
446010
2592
1879年，
07:40
which was invented in 1879?
151
448602
2340
人类发明了内燃机。
07:42
In America, before the motor vehicle,
152
450942
3818
在出现汽车之前
07:46
transportation depended entirely on the urban horse,
153
454760
3972
美国的交通完全依赖马匹。
07:50
which dropped, without restraint,
154
458732
2886
由于没有限制，
07:53
25 to 50 pounds of manure on the streets every day
155
461618
3805
这些马匹每天在街上要排放25磅至50磅（约11.36公斤至22.73公斤）的粪便，
07:57
together with a gallon of urine.
156
465423
1924
还有1加仑（约3.8升）的尿液。
07:59
That comes out at five to 10 tons daily
157
467347
3213
这就意味着每天，城市每平方英尺（约9.29平方米）内
08:02
per square mile in cities.
158
470560
2433
就有5到10吨的马排泄物。
08:04
Those horses also ate up fully one quarter of American agricultural land.
159
472993
5941
这些马吃的草占了美国农业土地四分之一。
08:10
That's the percentage of American agricultural land
160
478934
2398
整整25%的美国农业土地
08:13
it took to feed the horses.
161
481332
2193
居然都用来喂马了。
08:15
Of course, when the motor vehicle was invented,
162
483525
3962
当然，当汽车出现后
08:19
and it became almost ubiquitous by 1929,
163
487487
3204
尤其是在1929年汽车遍布全国各地的时候，
08:22
that agricultural land could be used for human consumption
164
490691
3095
农业土地被用来供人类消费
08:25
or for export.
165
493786
1534
或者出口。
08:27
And here's an interesting ratio: Starting from zero in 1900,
166
495320
3640
这是个有趣的比例：1900年，没有一个家庭拥有汽车；
08:30
only 30 years later, the ratio of motor vehicles to the number of households
167
498960
4916
仅仅三十年之后，
08:35
in the United States reached 90 percent in just 30 years.
168
503876
6584
90%的美国家庭都拥有了汽车。
08:42
Back before the turn of the century,
169
510460
2811
19世纪末期，
08:45
women had another problem.
170
513271
1401
妇女还有一个亟待解决的问题：
08:46
All the water for cooking, cleaning and bathing
171
514672
4595
生活用水（例如烧饭，清洁，洗澡），
08:51
had to be carried in buckets and pails in from the outside.
172
519267
4670
必须从外面一桶一桶地提回来。
08:55
It's a historical fact that in 1885,
173
523937
2475
在1885年，
08:58
the average North Carolina housewife
174
526412
2314
北卡罗来纳州的家庭妇女
09:00
walked 148 miles a year carrying 35 tons of water.
175
528726
5370
平均每年要走148英里的路，挑35吨的水。
09:06
But by 1929, cities around the country
176
534096
4404
但到了1929年，每个城市
09:10
had put in underground water pipes.
177
538500
3015
都安装了地下水管。
09:13
They had put in underground sewer pipes,
178
541515
3426
也安装了污水管。
09:16
and as a result, one of the great scourges of the late 19th century,
179
544941
5182
因为这一发明，19世纪末的一大灾难---
09:22
waterborne diseases like cholera, began to disappear.
180
550123
4246
水传疾病例如霍乱，开始逐渐消失。
09:26
And an amazing fact for techno-optimists
181
554369
3602
还有一个让技术乐观主义者高兴的事实：
09:29
is that in the first half of the 20th century,
182
557971
2572
在20世纪前半期，
09:32
the rate of improvement of life expectancy
183
560543
2712
人类寿命的增长速度
09:35
was three times faster than it was
184
563255
2801
是19世纪后半期
09:38
in the second half of the 19th century.
185
566056
2871
寿命增长速度的三倍。
09:40
So it's a truism that things can't be more than 100 percent of themselves.
186
568927
5086
众所周知，任何事物的增长速度不能超过100%。
09:46
And I'll just give you a few examples.
187
574013
2182
在这里我给大家举几个例子：
09:48
We went from one percent to 90 percent of the speed of sound.
188
576195
3268
光速从1%提高到90%，
09:51
Electrification, central heat, ownership of motor cars,
189
579463
3608
电力，中央供暖，汽车拥有量，
09:55
they all went from zero to 100 percent.
190
583071
2363
它们都从0增长到100%。
09:57
Urban environments make people more productive than on the farm.
191
585434
3650
相比农场环境，城市环境提高了人类的生产力。
10:01
We went from 25 percent urban to 75 percent
192
589084
2842
二战后期，
10:03
by the early postwar years.
193
591926
4128
城市化从25%增长到75%。
10:08
What about the electronic revolution?
194
596054
2243
那么电子革命又是如何呢？
10:10
Here's an early computer.
195
598297
2121
这是一台早期的电脑。
10:12
It's amazing. The mainframe computer was invented in 1942.
196
600418
3310
电脑的主架产于1942年，
10:15
By 1960 we had telephone bills, bank statements
197
603728
4553
到了1960年，人类有了电话账单，银行对账单，
10:20
were being produced by computers.
198
608281
1771
这些都是由电脑打印出来的。
10:22
The earliest cell phones, the earliest personal computers
199
610052
2864
最早的手机，个人电脑
10:24
were invented in the 1970s.
200
612916
2915
都出现于1970年代。
10:27
The 1980s brought us Bill Gates, DOS,
201
615831
3255
1980年代出现了比尔盖茨，磁盘操作系统(DOS)，
10:31
ATM machines to replace bank tellers,
202
619086
2785
自动取款机取代了银行出纳员，
10:33
bar code scanning to cut down on labor in the retail sector.
203
621871
3893
条纹扫描削减了销售行业的劳动力。
10:37
Fast forward through the '90s,
204
625764
1867
到了90年代，
10:39
we had the dotcom revolution
205
627631
1568
我们有了网络革命。
10:41
and a temporary rise in productivity growth.
206
629199
3124
在生产率有了短暂的提高。
10:44
But I'm now going to give you an experiment.
207
632323
2452
但现在我要给大家展现一个实验，
10:46
You have to choose either option A or option B.
208
634775
3088
你只能选择A或者B
10:49
(Laughter)
209
637863
2515
（笑声）
10:52
Option A is you get to keep everything invented up till 10 years ago.
210
640378
3341
A选项是：你拥有十年前的所有发明，
10:55
So you get Google, you get Amazon,
211
643719
2910
其中包括谷歌，亚马逊网站，
10:58
you get Wikipedia, and you get running water and indoor toilets.
212
646629
3087
维基百科，自来水，室内洗手间。
11:01
Or you get everything invented to yesterday,
213
649716
1829
B选项是：你拥有直到昨天之前历史上的所有发明，
11:03
including Facebook and your iPhone,
214
651545
2076
这其中包括：脸谱网，苹果手机，
11:05
but you have to give up, go out to the outhouse,
215
653621
2359
但是你必须舍弃一些，你只能到屋外上厕所，
11:07
and carry in the water.
216
655980
2864
必须要自己挑水。
11:10
Hurricane Sandy caused a lot of people to lose the 20th century,
217
658844
3450
台风桑迪使许多人好几天都
11:14
maybe for a couple of days,
218
662294
1523
无法使用20世纪的新发明，
11:15
in some cases for more than a week,
219
663817
2126
在受灾更为严重的地区估计要忍受一个多礼拜，
11:17
electricity, running water, heating, gasoline for their cars,
220
665943
3540
电力，自来水，暖气，汽车所需的汽油
11:21
and a charge for their iPhones.
221
669483
2916
苹果手机的充电器。
11:24
The problem we face is that all these great inventions,
222
672399
3511
我们所面临的的问题是：所有这些伟大的发明
11:27
we have to match them in the future,
223
675910
3004
都给未来的创新带来挑战。
11:30
and my prediction that we're not going to match them
224
678914
2588
我的预测就是：我们不能研制出比这些还要伟大的发明，
11:33
brings us down from the original two-percent growth
225
681502
3195
这就使得我们从2%的增长速度
11:36
down to 0.2, the fanciful curve that I drew you at the beginning.
226
684697
5070
拉回到0.2%的增长速度，也就是我最开始的时候所画的那条曲线。
11:41
So here we are back to the horse and buggy.
227
689767
3007
所以，我们又回到了最开始的马和敞篷车。
11:44
I'd like to award an Oscar
228
692774
2321
我想给20世纪的所有发明家
11:47
to the inventors of the 20th century,
229
695095
3653
颁发奥斯卡奖，
11:50
the people from Alexander Graham Bell
230
698748
2741
这些伟人包括亚历山大·格雷厄姆·贝尔（电话发明者）
11:53
to Thomas Edison to the Wright Brothers,
231
701489
1703
一直到托马斯·爱迪生，一直到怀特兄弟。
11:55
I'd like to call them all up here,
232
703192
1723
我想把他们都邀请到台上来，
11:56
and they're going to call back to you.
233
704915
1870
然后他们将向你们发问：
11:58
Your challenge is, can you match what we achieved?
234
706785
3663
你们的发明能比得过我们的发明么？
12:02
Thank you.
235
710448
1534
谢谢。
12:03
(Applause)
236
711982
5031
掌声。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert J. Gordon - EconomistRobert J. Gordon is among the most influential macroeconomists in the world. And the big picture he sees is not altogether rosy.
Why you should listen
Robert J. Gordon has written prolifically about the problems facing contemporary economic growth, casting a sobering doubt on the ability of our current innovations (what he calls the "third industrial revolution," including all our fancy gadgets) to power the economy the way previous waves of invention. In a recent paper, he suggests that the repeated doubling of economic growth that characterized the 20th century and was arguably the bedrock for modern society may be decelerating at an alarming rate -- especially for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution. While innovation is continuing apace, he sees the economy buffeted by six headwinds, and a different mix of obstacles for the US economy than for Canada and Europe.
Over the past four decades, he's also done fascinating work on the economics of the airline industry. He's authored hundreds of scholarly articles and five books, including his most recent, Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment: The Collected Essays of Robert J. Gordon, as well as the textbook Macroeconomics, now in its 12th edition. Two key papers to start: "Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds," NBER Working Paper 18315; and “Why Innovation Won’t Save Us,” from the Wall Street Journal.
Robert J. Gordon | Speaker | TED.com