TED@State Street Boston
Michael Metcalfe: We need money for aid. So let’s print it.
迈克·梅特卡夫: 我们需要钱来进行援助，那么就来印钞吧
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在金融危机期间，美国，英国和日本的中央银行共创造了3.7万亿美金用以购置资产，和鼓励投资者购置资产。麦克·梅特卡夫提出了一个惊人的想法：这些中央银行能印刷钞票以确保成功完成国际援助的目标？并且不用冒通货膨胀的风险？
Michael Metcalfe - Financial expert
A senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research. Full bio
A senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Thirteen years ago,
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十三年前
00:15
we set ourselves a goal to end poverty.
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我们设了一个目标，
要结束贫困
要结束贫困
00:21
After some success,
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在取得一些小成功后
00:24
we've hit a big hurdle.
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我们遇到了瓶颈
00:27
The aftermath of the financial crisis
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财政危机的后果
00:29
has begun to hit aid payments,
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开始冲击救助款项
00:32
which have fallen for two consecutive years.
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而且连续两年都在减少
00:37
My question is whether the lessons learned
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我的问题就是，
从挽救财政系统中
从挽救财政系统中
00:41
from saving the financial system
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得到的这些教训
00:45
can be used to help us overcome that hurdle
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能否用来帮助我们克服这瓶颈
00:48
and help millions.
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也帮助数以百万的人民
00:51
Can we simply print money for aid?
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我们是否能直接印钞以提供救助呢？
00:58
"Surely not."
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“当然不可以。”
01:00
It's a common reaction.
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这是人们正常的反应
01:02
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:03
It's a quick talk.
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这是一个短对话
01:05
Others channel John McEnroe.
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人们和约翰·麦肯罗的对话
01:10
"You cannot be serious!"
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“你开玩笑的吧！”
01:12
Now, I can't do the accent, but I am serious,
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我没办法模仿他的口音，
但我是认真的
但我是认真的
01:17
thanks to these two children,
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多亏了这两个孩子
01:21
who, as you'll learn, are very much at the heart
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等下你们就会知道，
他们是我这个演讲
他们是我这个演讲
01:25
of my talk.
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的中心
01:27
On the left, we have Pia.
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左边这个女孩，名叫皮娅
01:30
She lives in England.
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她住在英格兰
01:32
She has two loving parents,
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她的双亲都很和蔼可亲
01:35
one of whom is standing right here.
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其中一个，就站在这里
01:40
Dorothy, on the right,
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桃乐茜，右边的孩子
01:42
lives in rural Kenya.
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住在肯尼亚农村
01:45
She's one of 13,000 orphans
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她是一万三千孤儿
01:48
and vulnerable children
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和弱势儿童中的一员
01:49
who are assisted by a charity that I support.
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她在接受我所资助的
一个慈善机构的帮助
一个慈善机构的帮助
01:54
I do that because I believe
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我这么做，是因为我相信
01:57
that Dorothy, like Pia,
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桃乐茜，像皮娅一样
02:00
deserves the best life chances
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值得拥有我们能给予她的
02:03
that we can afford to give her.
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最好的生活条件
02:05
You'll all agree with me, I'm sure.
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我相信你们会同意我的话的
02:08
The U.N. agrees too.
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联合国也这么认为
02:11
Their overriding aim
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他们对于国际援助
02:13
for international aid
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的最高目标
02:15
is to strive for a life of dignity for all.
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就是为所有人争取生命的尊严
02:21
But -- and here's that hurdle --
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但，这儿出现了瓶颈
02:26
can we afford our aid aspirations?
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我们能负担得起这样的援助渴望吗？
02:30
History suggests not.
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历史告诉我们，不能
02:34
In 1970, governments set themselves a target
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在1970年，政府们给自己定了个目标
02:39
to increase overseas aid payments
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要增加海外的救助款项
02:42
to 0.7 percent
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增加到占国民收入
02:44
of their national income.
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的0.7%
02:45
As you can see, a big gap opens up
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在这里你能看到，
在实际救助和目标之间
在实际救助和目标之间
02:50
between actual aid and that target.
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出现了一个大的空缺
02:54
But then come the Millennium Development Goals,
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接着，出来了“千年发展目标”
02:59
eight ambitious targets
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要在2015年前
03:01
to be met by 2015.
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要完成八大目标
03:05
If I tell you that just one of those targets
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如果我告诉你们，其中一个目标
03:08
is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty,
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就是要消除极度饥饿和贫困
03:12
you get a sense of the ambition.
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你们会觉得这雄心勃勃
03:15
There's also been some success.
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还是取得一些成功的
03:18
The number of people living
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每天生活费低于1.25美金的人数
03:20
on less than $1.25 a day has halved.
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已经减少了一半
03:26
But a lot remains to be done in two years.
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当然未来的两年还有很多的事要做
03:29
One in eight remain hungry.
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还有八分之一的人口处于饥饿的水平
03:33
In the context of this auditorium,
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拿这个讲厅打个比方
03:36
the front two rows aren't going to get any food.
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前两排的观众将得不到任何食物
03:40
We can't settle for that,
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这点我们没法满足
03:42
which is why the concern about the eighth goal,
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这就是为什么第八个目标
03:47
which relates to funding,
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是如此的麻烦
03:49
which I said at the beginning is falling,
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因为它涉及到资金
03:52
is so troubling.
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就是我开头说的开始在减少的资金
03:56
So what can be done?
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那么，我们能做什么呢？
03:58
Well, I work in financial markets,
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嗯，我从事金融市场工作
04:01
not development.
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不是发展研究
04:04
I study the behavior of investors,
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我研究投资者的行为
04:07
how they react to policy and the economy.
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研究他们如何应对政策和经济
04:12
It gives me a different angle on the aid issue.
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这在救助问题上给我新的启迪
04:17
But it took an innocent question
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但是当时我年仅四岁的女儿
04:19
from my then-four-year-old daughter
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问的一个童真的问题
04:22
to make me appreciate that.
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让我对此心有感激
04:26
Pia and I were on the way to a local cafe
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当时皮娅和我正在去
当地一家咖啡厅的路上
当地一家咖啡厅的路上
04:29
and we passed a man collecting for charity.
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我们经过了一个
为慈善募捐的男人身边
为慈善募捐的男人身边
04:34
I didn't have any change to give him,
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我当时没有给他零钱
04:35
and she was disappointed.
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她就有些失望了
04:38
Once in the cafe, Pia takes out her coloring book
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到了咖啡厅，
皮娅拿出她的图画本
皮娅拿出她的图画本
04:42
and starts scribbling.
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开始涂画
04:43
After a little while, I ask her what she's doing,
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过了一会儿，
我问她在干什么
我问她在干什么
04:47
and she shows me a drawing
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她给我看了她画的
04:50
of a £5 note
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一张5欧元的钞票
04:52
to give to the man outside.
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要给外面的那个男子
04:54
It's so sweet,
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非常温馨
04:55
and more generous than Dad would have been.
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远比她爸爸要慷慨得多
04:58
But of course I explained to her,
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当然我跟她解释
05:00
"You can't do that; it's not allowed."
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“你不能这么做，这行不通得。”
05:03
To which I get the classic four-year-old response:
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结果我得到的是四岁小孩经典的回答：
05:08
"Why not?"
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“为什么啊？”
05:10
Now I'm excited, because I actually think
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现在我有点激动了，
因为我觉得
因为我觉得
05:12
I can answer this time.
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我现在可以回答这个问题了
05:14
So I launch into an explanation of how
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所以我开始解释
05:17
an unlimited supply of money
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无限量供应的货币
05:21
chasing a limited number of goods
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去购买限量供应的商品
05:24
sends prices to the moon.
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是会把价格抬高到离谱的地步的
05:31
Something about that exchange stuck with me,
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这次的交流让我久久不能忘怀
05:35
not because of the look of relief
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并不是因为在我快要结束的时候
05:37
on Pia's face when I finally finished,
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皮娅脸上露出安心的表情
05:39
but because it related
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而是因为
05:44
to the sanctity of the money supply,
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它涉及到货币供应的神圣性
05:49
a sanctity that had been challenged and questioned
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这种神圣性一直被中央银行
05:53
by the reaction of central banks
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对财政危机的反应
05:56
to the financial crisis.
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所挑战和质疑
05:59
To reassure investors,
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为了使投资方安心
06:01
central banks began buying assets
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中央银行开始购置资产
06:06
to try and encourage investors to do the same.
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尝试鼓励投资者也这么做
06:11
They funded these purchases
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他们用他们自己造出来的钱
06:15
with money they created themselves.
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去投资这些购置
06:18
The money wasn't actually physically printed.
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而这些钱并没有真正被印刷出来
06:22
It's still sort of locked away
in the banking system today.
in the banking system today.
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在今天这笔钱仍处于
被“锁”在银行系统的状态
被“锁”在银行系统的状态
06:25
But the amount created was unprecedented.
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但造出来的这笔钱的数量却是空前的
06:30
Together, the central banks of the U.S.,
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各国的中央银行，美国
06:34
U.K and Japan
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英国和日本
06:36
increased the stock of money in their economies
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都一起增加了各自经济的货币存量
06:39
by 3.7 trillion dollars.
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增加了3.7万亿美金
（人民币约22.2万亿元）
（人民币约22.2万亿元）
06:43
That's three times, in fact
that's more than three times,
that's more than three times,
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这是三倍，其实不止三倍
06:47
the total physical stock of dollar notes in circulation.
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实际流通中的美金货币存量总和
06:51
Three times!
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三倍啊！
06:56
Before the crisis,
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在经济危机之前
06:58
this would have been utterly unthinkable,
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这是完全不能想像的
07:03
yet it was accepted remarkably quickly.
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但它还是非常快就被接受了
07:10
The price of gold,
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黄金的价格
07:12
an asset thought to protect against inflation,
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黄金是被当作用来抵御通货膨胀的
07:15
did jump,
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确实下跌了
07:18
but investors bought other assets
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但投资者购买了其他的资产
07:20
that offered little protection from inflation.
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而这些资产却基本无法抵制通货膨胀
07:23
They bought fixed income securities, bonds.
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他们购买固定收益证券，债卷
07:27
They bought equities too.
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他们也买普通股
07:29
For all the scare stories,
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对于那些吓人的报道
07:32
the actual actions of investors
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投资者真正的行为
07:35
spoke of rapid acceptance and confidence.
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显示出快速的接受和信心
07:42
That confidence was based on two pillars.
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这种信心建立在两个支柱上
07:47
The first was that, after years
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第一个就是
07:50
of keeping inflation under control,
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在控制通货膨胀的多年后
07:53
central banks were trusted
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中央银行被人们所信任
07:56
to take the money-printing away
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如果通货膨胀构成威胁时
07:59
if inflation became a threat.
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他们可以停止钞票的印刷
08:03
Secondly, inflation simply never became a threat.
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第二，通货膨胀单纯来说时不会成为威胁的
08:09
As you can see, in the United States,
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正如你所见到的，在美国
08:11
inflation for most of this period
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这个阶段大部分时间的通货膨胀
08:13
remained below average.
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都低于平均数
08:16
It was the same elsewhere.
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在别的地方也一样
08:20
So how does all this relate to aid?
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那么所有的这一切是怎么
和救助这个事儿挂钩的呢？
和救助这个事儿挂钩的呢？
08:23
Well, this is where Dorothy
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这就是桃乐茜
08:27
and the Mango Tree charity
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和资助她的芒果树慈善机构
08:29
that supports her comes in.
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开始出现
08:32
I was at one of their fundraising events
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在今年年初的时候
08:34
earlier this year,
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我在一个募捐活动上
08:35
and I was inspired to give a one-off donation
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我当时受到了鼓舞，捐了一笔捐款
08:39
when I remembered that my firm
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然后我想起我的公司
08:42
offers to match the charitable contributions
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答应会根据自己员工捐款的数额
08:45
its employees make.
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再捐同样的数额
08:48
So think of this:
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所以这么想：
08:50
Instead of just being able to help Dorothy
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我不单能帮助到桃乐茜
08:53
and four of her classmates
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还有她的四个同学
08:55
to go through secondary school for a few years,
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帮助他们完成中学几年的学业
08:58
I was able to double my contribution.
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我能够让我的贡献翻倍
09:02
Brilliant.
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这真是太棒了
09:04
So following that conversation with my daughter,
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所以想着我和女儿的对话
09:10
and seeing the absence of inflation
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看着面临钞票印刷时
09:13
in the face of money-printing,
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消失的通货膨胀
09:15
and knowing that international aid payments
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以及知道国际救助款项
09:18
were falling at just the wrong time,
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在不恰当的时间被减少了
09:21
this made me wonder:
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这让我好奇：
09:25
Could we match
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我们能否
09:27
but just on a much grander scale?
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在规模上提高一个等级？
09:34
Let's call this scheme "Print Aid."
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让我们把这个计划成为“印救”
09:38
And here's how it might work.
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下面解释一下它的运作
09:41
Provided it saw little inflation risk from doing so,
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假设这样做基本没什么通货膨胀的风险
09:46
the central bank would be mandated
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中央银行需被强制采取措施
09:48
to match the government's overseas aid payments
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以达到政府的海外救助款项
09:51
up to a certain limit.
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所设定的一个限度
09:54
Governments have been aiming to get aid
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政府这几年来都试图
09:56
to 0.7 percent for years,
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让救助款项达到0.7%的数额
09:58
so let's set the limit at half of that,
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那么我们就把限制定在一半吧
10:01
0.35 percent of their income.
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就是收入的0.35%
10:05
So it would work like this: If in a given year
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所以它会这样运作：如果在某一年
10:07
the government gave 0.2 percent of its income
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政府把收入的0.2%
10:09
to overseas aid,
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拨给海外救助
10:11
the central bank would simply top it up
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那么中央银行只要把它的款项
10:12
with a further 0.2 percent.
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提高多0.2％就可以了
10:15
So far so good.
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目前感觉还不错吧
10:19
How risky is this?
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这样做的风险有多大？
10:22
Well, this involves the creation of money
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它其实涉及到制造货币
10:26
to buy goods, not assets.
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去购买商品，而非资产
10:29
It sounds more inflationary already, doesn't it.
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听起来有点通货膨胀了，对吧
10:32
But there are two important mitigating factors here.
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但这里有两个重要的缓解因素
10:37
The first is that by definition,
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第一个，就是从定义上说
10:40
this money printed would be spent overseas.
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印制出来的钞票会被投放到海外
10:45
So it's not obvious how it leads to inflation
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所以印刷钞票对国内而言
10:49
in the country doing the actual printing
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不大可能会导致通货膨胀
10:53
unless it leads to a currency
depreciation of that country.
depreciation of that country.
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除非它导致了这个国家的货币贬值
10:58
That is unlikely for the second reason:
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这也不大可能出现，因为有第二个原因：
11:01
the scale of the money that would be printed
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取决于在这个计划下
11:04
under this scheme.
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印刷钞票的规模
11:07
So let's think of an example
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举个例子
11:10
where Print Aid was in place
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比如“印救”计划在
11:14
in the U.S., U.K. and Japan.
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美国，英国和日本实施
11:18
To match the aid payments made
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为了达到政府们在过去四年里
11:20
by those governments over the last four years,
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在救助款项达到的数目
11:23
Print Aid would have generated
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“印救”会提供
11:25
200 billion dollars' worth of extra aid.
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额外的两千亿美金给救助款项
11:30
What would that look like
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会出现怎样的情况？
11:32
in the context of the increase in the money stock
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当这些国家
11:36
that had already happened in those countries
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为了拯救财政系统
11:38
to save the financial system?
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已提高货币储存量
11:40
Are you read for this?
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准备好听答案了吗？
11:43
You might struggle to see that at the back,
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在后面你可能会看不清
11:45
because the gap is quite small.
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因为这个空缺很小
11:49
So what we're saying here
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所以我们这里说的
11:51
is that we took a $3.7 trillion gamble
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是我们拿了3.7万亿美金孤注一掷
11:55
to save our financial systems,
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去缓解我们的财政系统压力
11:57
and you know what, it paid off.
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结果呢，它见成效了
11:59
There was no inflation.
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没有通货膨胀
12:02
Are we really saying that it's not worth the risk
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那么，为了救援而额外印多2千亿钞票
12:05
to print an extra 200 billion for aid?
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这样的风险真的不值得去承担吗？
12:10
Would the risks really be that different?
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这些风险真的会有很大区别吗？
12:12
To me, it's not that clear.
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对我来说，这是比较模糊的概念
12:14
What is clear is the impact on aid.
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而对救援产生的影响则是清晰的
12:17
Even though this is the printing
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哪怕印钞仅仅只是
12:20
of just three central banks,
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三家中央银行的事
12:21
the global aid that's given
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但是这个阶段给出的国籍援助
12:25
over this period is up by almost 40 percent.
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也已经上升了接近40个百分点
12:30
Aid as a proportion of national income
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援助作为国民收入的一部分
12:32
all of a sudden is at a 40-year high.
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突然就上升到了40年来的最高点
12:36
Now, we don't get to 0.7 percent.
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那么，假设我们没有达到0.7%那个点
12:39
Governments are still incentivized to give.
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政府也会被要求付诸行动
12:42
But you know what, that's the
point of a matching scheme.
point of a matching scheme.
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但你们知道吗，那个点就是和计划匹配的点
12:46
So I think what we've learned
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所以我觉得，我们了解到的是
12:50
is that the risks from this money creation scheme
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这个印钞计划中潜在的风险
12:54
are quite modest,
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是相当温和的
12:57
but the benefits
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但是收益呢
13:00
are potentially huge.
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则是非常庞大
13:02
Imagine what we could do
with 40 percent more funding.
with 40 percent more funding.
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想像一下这多出来的40%的资金，
我们能做多少事情
我们能做多少事情
13:06
We might be able to feed the front row.
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我们估计可以养得起
前排的观众了
前排的观众了
13:11
The thing that I fear, the only thing that I fear,
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我担心的事情，
且唯一担心的事情
且唯一担心的事情
13:13
apart from the fact that I've run out of time,
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除了我已经没什么时间这个事实外
13:15
is that the window of opportunity for this idea
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就是实施这个想法的时间机会
13:20
is a short one.
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非常短暂
13:23
Today, money creation by central banks
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今天，中央银行的货币创造
13:27
is an accepted policy tool.
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是一个公认的政策工具
13:29
That may not always be the case.
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但这并不是一直都这样
13:32
Today there are universally agreed aims
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如今在国际援助上
13:36
for international aid.
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我们有世界普遍认可的目标
13:38
That may not always be the case.
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但这也并不是一直都这样
13:42
Today might be the only time
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现在可能是这两种事物
13:44
that these two things coincide,
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同时被认可实行的唯一时机
13:47
such that we can afford the aid
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这样我们就能负担起这些援助
13:51
that we've always aspired to give.
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这些我们一直都很想给予的援助
13:55
So, can we print money for international aid?
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所以，我们能为国籍援助而印刷钞票吗？
14:03
I seriously believe the question should be,
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我坚决相信这是可行的
14:07
why not?
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为什么不呢？
14:09
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢
14:12
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Metcalfe - Financial expertA senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research.
Why you should listen
Michael Metcalfe leads State Street Global Markets Macro Strategy team, focusing on how the behavior of investors and online retailers can help with investment decisions. In this role, he regularly consults with many of the world’s largest institutional investors as well as policy makers. He develops tools to help analyze markets, and regularly advises portfolio managers from some of the world’s largest pension and hedge funds.
Michael Metcalfe | Speaker | TED.com