EG 2007
Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web
凯文·凯利（Kevin Kelly）谈未来5000天后的网络世界
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凯文·凯利（Kevin Kelly）在2007年EG会议的演讲中说，大家现在所熟悉的万维网(World Wide Web)，其实也才不过5000天的岁月而已。那么在未来的5000天后，网络会变成什么样子呢？
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
The Internet, the Web as we know it,
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互联网，又称网络，
00:18
the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about --
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我们所说的网络，
00:21
is already less than 5,000 days old.
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其历史还不到5000天。
00:25
So all of the things that we've seen come about,
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这期间发生的所有事情，
00:29
starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth,
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比如整个地球的卫星图片，
00:32
which we couldn't even imagine happening before,
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都是你以前无法想象的，
00:35
all these things rolling into our lives,
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这些闯入我们生活的所有东西，
00:39
just this abundance of things that are right before us,
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这些多彩多姿的东西，就在我们眼前，
00:44
sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop.
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在笔记本电脑或是桌面电脑上。
00:46
This kind of cornucopia of stuff
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这样的东西像聚宝盆一样，
00:48
just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed.
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永远不会枯竭，真是令人惊讶，但我们好像并不觉得惊奇。
00:54
It's really amazing that all this stuff is here.
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真地很神奇，所有东西都在这儿。
00:58
(Laughter)
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（笑）
00:59
It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come.
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在短短的5000天之内，所有东西都出现了。
01:03
And I know that 10 years ago,
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如果我在10年前告诉你，
01:06
if I had told you that this was all coming,
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这些东西将要到来，
01:08
you would have said that that's impossible.
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你会说，这是不可能的。
01:11
There's simply no economic model that that would be possible.
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原因很简单，没有任何一套经济模型能支持它的存在。
01:16
And if I told you it was all coming for free,
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如果我又说，它会是免费的。
01:18
you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming.
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你会回答，你在做梦。
01:20
You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist.
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你是加利福尼亚空想家。你是狂热的乐观主义者。
01:24
And yet it's here.
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然而，它已出现在我们面前。
01:26
The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago,
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我们知道的另一件事，是在10年前
01:30
as I looked at what even Wired was talking about,
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我看到Wired（连线杂志）上说，
01:33
we thought it was going to be TV, but better.
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我们认为下一个将会是电视，但会更好。
01:36
That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting
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它已经是典范，
01:40
was going to be coming.
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所以大家都认为它会来临。
01:42
And it turns out that that's not what it was.
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结果，却不是大家所想象的那样。
01:45
First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was.
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第一，它不可能；第二，它以前没发生过。
01:48
And so one of the things that I think we're learning --
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我想我们学到的经验之一就是——
01:49
if you think about, like, Wikipedia,
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想象维基百科，
01:51
it's something that was simply impossible.
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就是个‘不可能’的例子——
01:53
It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice.
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理论上不可行，但实际上却可行。
01:57
And if you take all these things that are impossible,
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如果你能接受这些不可能，
01:58
I think one of the things that we're learning from this era,
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从这个世纪、从过去10年里，
02:02
from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible,
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我们学到的东西之一就是，我们最好接受不可能的事，
02:06
because we're unprepared for it.
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因为我们还没准备好。
02:09
So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days.
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因此我对于未来5000天感到好奇。
02:12
But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days,
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看看过去5000天发生的事，
02:14
what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days?
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下一个5000天会有什么事发生呢？
02:17
So, I have a kind of a simple story,
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我有一个简单的报道，
02:20
and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making,
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它提示我们应该好好思考，在下个5000天里，
02:23
this thing that has happened in 5,000 days --
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我们将制造出什么，将发生什么事。
02:25
that's all these computers, all these handhelds,
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到时，所有电脑、掌上设备、
02:28
all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers --
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手机、笔记本电脑、伺服器...等
02:32
basically what we're getting out of all these connections
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简单地说，所有的连接，
02:36
is we're getting one machine.
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都将形成一部机器。
02:38
If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices
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“唯一”的一部机器，我们的掌上设备，
02:42
are actually just little windows into those machines,
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不过是个小小视窗
02:44
but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.
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我们正在建造的是一部唯一涵盖全球的机器。
02:50
And so I began to think about that.
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我发觉到
02:52
And it turned out that this machine happens to be
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这部机器正是人类
02:55
the most reliable machine that we've ever made.
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有史以来创造过的最可靠的机器。
02:58
It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted.
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它从不宕机，它永不停止运算，
03:00
And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made
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比起我们制造过的任何机器
03:03
that runs the number of hours, the number of days.
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工作时数、工作天数，都要持久。
03:07
5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable.
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5000天不间断地运行，真是难以置信。
03:10
And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days;
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当然因特网的历史超过5000天，
03:12
the Web is only 5,000 days.
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我是指Web不过5000天历史
03:14
So, I was trying to basically make measurements.
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所以我试着测量这部机器，
03:20
What are the dimensions of this machine?
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它到底有多大
03:23
And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are
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我开始计算全世界的电脑上，
03:27
all around the globe on all the computers.
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总共发生几次鼠标点击。
03:30
And there is a 100 billion clicks per day.
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结果是1天1千亿次点击。
03:32
And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.
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全世界网页之间有55万亿个连接。
03:38
And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions,
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因此，我领悟到它是另一种规模。
03:41
and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer,
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我做了一个清单，摄影家克里斯·乔丹说过，
03:46
talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless?
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当数字太过巨大时，就失去意义了。
03:50
Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell,
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就是这个清单，不是很好阅读。
03:52
but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet,
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如果把网络上，所有电脑上的所有晶片都算在内的话，
03:56
if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet.
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网络上共有10亿颗电脑晶片。
03:58
There's two million emails per second.
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每秒有2百万封电子邮件产生。
04:00
So it's a very big number.
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这是一个极大的数字。
04:02
It's just a huge machine,
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它是一个极大的机器。
04:04
and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet.
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它还用掉地球上5%的电力。
04:08
So here's the specifications,
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这是其明细信息。
04:09
just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it:
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如果画成一张规格表的话，
04:11
170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links,
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它拥有170千兆电晶体、55兆个连接，
04:15
emails running at two megahertz itself,
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电子邮件以每秒2百万赫传送，
04:17
31 kilohertz text messaging,
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短信已每秒3万1千赫传送，
04:20
246 exabyte storage. That's a big disk.
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拥有246hexabutes（10的18次方）储存空间。这可是一个很大的光盘。
04:24
That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM.
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有很多存储空间，内存为9 hexabytes。
04:27
And the total traffic on this
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它的流量
04:31
is running at seven terabytes per second.
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为每秒7兆位元组（TB）。
04:34
Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes.
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布鲁斯特提过，美国国会图书馆拥有大约20兆位元组（TB）的资料。
04:37
So every second, half of the Library of Congress
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也就是说，每秒就有半个国会图书馆多的资料在这部机器周转了一遍，
04:40
is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.
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这是一部超大机器。
04:44
So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day,
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我还发现，1天1千亿次鼠标点击
04:48
55 trillion links is almost the same
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和五万五千亿个连接，几乎就是
04:51
as the number of synapses in your brain.
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大脑突触的数量。
04:53
A quadrillion transistors is almost the same
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1千兆颗电晶体，
04:55
as the number of neurons in your brain.
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几乎等同于大脑的神经数量。
04:57
So to a first approximation, we have these things --
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这部机器每秒产生
05:00
twenty petahertz synapse firings.
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20千兆赫兹突触激发。
05:02
Of course, the memory is really huge.
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想当然的，记忆空间相当庞大。
05:04
But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size --
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从刚刚的数据看来，这部机器的规格
05:10
and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain.
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与复杂度可以说是等同于人脑。
05:15
Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works.
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因为人类大脑的运作方式和网络的运作方式差不多，
05:19
However, your brain isn't doubling every two years.
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只不过，人脑不会每2年成倍增长。
05:23
So if we say this machine right now that we've made
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假设我们制造的这部机器
05:28
is about one HB, one human brain,
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现在等于1个人脑。
05:31
if we look at the rate that this is increasing,
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以它的成长速率，
05:34
30 years from now, there'll be six billion HBs.
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在30年后，它会等于60亿个人脑。
05:39
So by the year 2040, the total processing of this machine
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也就是说，到了2040年，这部机器，
05:43
will exceed a total processing power of humanity,
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处理原始资料的能力将超过人类。
05:46
in raw bits and stuff. And this is, I think, where
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我想这就是，
05:49
Ray Kurzweil and others get this little chart saying that we're going to cross.
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Ray kurzweil 和其他一些人想用上图表来表达的。
05:54
So, what about that? Well, here's a couple of things.
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那这又说明什么呢？这里我想谈几点。
06:00
I have three kind of general things
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我觉得总得来说是3点
06:03
I would like to say, three consequences of this.
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我想说是3项推论。
06:07
First, that basically what this machine is doing is embodying.
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第一，这部机器正在实体化
06:12
We're giving it a body. And that's what we're going to do
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在下一个5000天，我们将会
06:14
in the next 5,000 days -- we're going to give this machine a body.
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赋予这部机器一个实体。
06:17
And the second thing is, we're going to restructure its architecture.
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第二，我们将重组它的构造。
06:20
And thirdly, we're going to become completely codependent upon it.
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第三，我们将要完全地与之共存。
06:24
So let me go through those three things.
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让我一一说明。
06:26
First of all, we have all these things in our hands.
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第一，我们手上握着不少东西，
06:29
We think they're all separate devices,
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我们认为它们是独立的
06:31
but in fact, every screen in the world
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但事实上，世界上
06:34
is looking into the one machine.
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所有的屏幕都进入这一步机器查询。
06:37
These are all basically portals into that one machine.
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基本上，这些屏幕是入口。
06:40
The second thing is that -- some people call this the cloud,
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第二，人们所说的云计算。
06:44
and you're kind of touching the cloud with this.
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要接触云网络，
06:46
And so in some ways, all you really need is a cloudbook.
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只需要一台通云电脑（cloudbook），
06:50
And the cloudbook doesn't have any storage.
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上面没有任何储存空间，
06:53
It's wireless. It's always connected.
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永远保持着无线链接
06:56
There's many things about it. It becomes very simple,
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结构非常简单。
06:58
and basically what you're doing is you're just touching the machine,
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基本上，你只要触摸这部机器，
07:00
you're touching the cloud and you're going to compute that way.
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云网络就能进行运算，
07:03
So the machine is computing.
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这部机器就会计算。
07:05
And in some ways, it's sort of back
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有点像是回到
07:06
to the kind of old idea of centralized computing.
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从前的中央电脑概念。
07:09
But everything, all the cameras, and the microphones,
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而且所有东西，所有摄影机、麦克风、
07:13
and the sensors in cars
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汽车感应器等等，
07:17
and everything is connected to this machine.
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都连接到这部机器。
07:19
And everything will go through the Web.
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每一样都会经过网络。
07:21
And we're seeing that already with, say, phones.
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我们已经使用手机连网，
07:23
Right now, phones don't go through the Web,
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现在手机还没经过web，
07:25
but they are beginning to, and they will.
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但它们将要，也一定会经过网络。
07:28
And if you imagine what, say, just as an example, what Google Labs has
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你可以想象。以谷歌实验室（Google Lab）为例，
07:32
in terms of experiments with Google Docs, Google Spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah --
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谷歌文件、谷歌计算器等等，
07:36
all these things are going to become Web based.
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这些东西都建立与网络之上。
07:39
They're going through the machine.
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它们都会经过这部机器。
07:41
And I am suggesting that every bit will be owned by the Web.
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我想每一个位元都将属于网络。
07:46
Right now, it's not. If you do spreadsheets and things at work,
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现在还不是这样，如果你工作中做了表格、
07:49
a Word document, they aren't on the Web,
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Word文档等等，它们目前还不在，
07:52
but they are going to be. They're going to be part of this machine.
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但将会在网站上。它们将会成为这部机器的一部分。
07:54
They're going to speak the Web language.
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它们会使用网站语言。
07:56
They're going to talk to the machine.
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它们会和这部机器交谈。
07:58
The Web, in some sense, is kind of like a black hole
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网络就像黑洞，
08:01
that's sucking up everything into it.
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把一切都吸进去。
08:04
And so every thing will be part of the Web.
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每一件东西都成为网络的一部分。
08:08
So every item, every artifact that we make, will have embedded in it
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将来我们制造的每一件东西，
08:13
some little sliver of Web-ness and connection,
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都会嵌入一片小小的网络连接器，
08:16
and it will be part of this machine,
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每件东西都将成为这机器的一部分。
08:18
so that our environment -- kind of in that ubiquitous computing sense --
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这机器会无时无刻地运算，
08:21
our environment becomes the Web. Everything is connected.
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我们的周遭变成网络，每一样东西都互相连接。
08:26
Now, with RFIDs and other things -- whatever technology it is,
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到那个时候，我们使用无线射频辨识系统（RFID）
08:29
it doesn't really matter. The point is that everything
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但用什么技术都无妨。关键是
08:32
will have embedded in it some sensor connecting it to the machine,
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每一样东西都将内建连接到这部机器，
08:35
and so we have, basically, an Internet of things.
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于是，我们就基本上拥有了实体互联网
08:38
So you begin to think of a shoe as a chip with heels,
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你可以这么想，鞋子是一个有鞋跟的晶片；
08:42
and a car as a chip with wheels,
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车子是一个有轮子的晶片。
08:45
because basically most of the cost of manufacturing cars
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车子的大半成本将来自于
08:48
is the embedded intelligence and electronics in it, and not the materials.
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它内嵌的智慧和电子设备，而不是原材料。
08:54
A lot of people think about the new economy
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很多人认为新的经济结构
08:56
as something that was going to be a disembodied,
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将会是脱离现实的，
08:58
alternative, virtual existence,
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另一种虚拟存在，
09:01
and that we would have the old economy of atoms.
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过去的经济结构是原子。
09:04
But in fact, what the new economy really is
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但事实上，新的经济结构应该是
09:07
is the marriage of those two, where we embed the information,
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这两种的结合，我们把资讯
09:11
and the digital nature of things into the material world.
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和数位格式的东西放入物质世界。
09:13
That's what we're looking forward to. That is where we're going --
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这才是我们期待的。这才是我们
09:17
this union, this convergence of the atomic and the digital.
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前进的目标，是一个结合一个原子与数位的转化。
09:24
And so one of the consequences of that, I believe,
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所以我相信结论会是，
09:26
is that where we have this sort of spectrum of media right now --
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现有的媒体、
09:30
TV, film, video -- that basically becomes one media platform.
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电视、电影、录像等等，将会转变成一种平台。
09:33
And while there's many differences in some senses,
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无论它们之间有多少差异，
09:35
they will share more and more in common with each other.
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在某种程度上，它们将会拥有越来越多的共同点。
09:38
So that the laws of media, such as the fact that copies have no value,
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所以一些媒体定律象是：“复制没有价值”，
09:43
the value's in the uncopiable things,
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“价值来自无法复制的东西”，
09:45
the immediacy, the authentication, the personalization.
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象是即时性、认证、个性化
09:50
The media wants to be liquid.
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“媒体希望能流通”，
09:53
The reason why things are free is so that you can manipulate them,
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它们之所以是“自由”的，是为了让你能随意使用，
09:56
not so that they are "free" as in "beer," but "free" as in "freedom."
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在此free不是指“免费”使用，而是指“自由”使用。
10:00
And the network effects rule,
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还有“网络效应规则”，
10:02
meaning that the more you have, the more you get.
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意思是，越多人使用，价值越高。
10:04
The first fax machine -- the person who bought the first fax machine
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举例来说，第一台传真机，买下第一台传真机的人
10:07
was an idiot, because there was nobody to fax to.
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是笨蛋吗？因为没有其他人可以接收传真呀！
10:12
But here she became an evangelist, recruiting others
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于是他/她成为一个传播者，号召其他人
10:16
to get the fax machines because it made their purchase more valuable.
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也购买传真机，因为这样就能使传真机更有价值。
10:19
Those are the effects that we're going to see.
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这些就是我们将要看到的影响力。
10:21
Attention is the currency.
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“注意力就是货币”。
10:23
So those laws are going to kind of spread throughout all media.
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这些定律将会遍布所有媒体。
10:28
And the other thing about this embodiment
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另一件关于实体化的事是，
10:30
is that there's kind of what I call the McLuhan reversal.
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类似我们说的，麦克虚汉转化（McLuhan Reversal）。
10:33
McLuhan was saying, "Machines are the extensions of the human senses."
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他说，机器是人类感官（意识）的延伸。
10:35
And I'm saying, "Humans are now going to be
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但我说，某种程度上人类将成为
10:37
the extended senses of the machine," in a certain sense.
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机器的延伸感官（意识）。
10:40
So we have a trillion eyes, and ears, and touches,
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因此，透过所有数码照片和相机，
10:44
through all our digital photographs and cameras.
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我们拥有1千万双眼睛、耳朵和触觉。
10:47
And we see that in things like Flickr,
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就像Flickr
10:52
or Photosynth, this program from Microsoft
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或Photosynth，一款微软出品的程式，
10:55
that will allow you to assemble a view of a touristy place
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可以将上千张游客们拍下的照片，
10:59
from the thousands of tourist snapshots of it.
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拼贴（还原）成景点的样貌。
11:03
In a certain sense, the machine is seeing through the pixels of individual cameras.
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某种程度上说，这部机器正看着，每一台相机后的每一个像素。
11:09
Now, the second thing that I want to talk about was this idea of restructuring,
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第二，我想谈谈重建的概念，
11:13
that what the Web is doing is restructuring.
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网络正在重建。
11:15
And I have to warn you, that what we'll talk about is --
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我先声明，接下来
11:17
I'm going to give my explanation of a term you're hearing, which is a "semantic Web."
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我要为语义网（semantic web）下个定义。
11:21
So first of all, the first stage that we've seen
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第一阶段，我们过去看到的
11:24
of the Internet was that it was going to link computers.
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因特网是把电脑连接起来。
11:27
And that's what we called the Net; that was the Internet of nets.
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也就是我们说的网络，
11:30
And we saw that, where you have all the computers of the world.
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那是“Internet of Net”（把网链接起来）。
11:33
And if you remember, it was a kind of green screen with cursors,
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如果你还记得当时的电脑，荧屏上都是绿色的字还有游标，
11:37
and there was really not much to do, and if you wanted to connect it,
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不能做太多事，如果想要连接，
11:39
you connected it from one computer to another computer.
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就要从一台电脑连到另一台电脑
11:42
And what you had to do was -- if you wanted to participate in this,
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如果想要参与，
11:44
you had to share packets of information.
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就要分享一份资料封包。
11:48
So you were forwarding on. You didn't have control.
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然后你需要传递过去，你不能控制什么，
11:50
It wasn't like a telephone system where you had control of a line:
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不像电话系统，你可以控制电话的另一端，
11:52
you had to share packets.
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你只是分享封包。
11:54
The second stage that we're in now is the idea of linking pages.
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第二阶段，也就是现在的连接网页的概念。
11:59
So in the old one, if I wanted to go on to an airline Web page,
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过去，如果要到航空公司的网页，
12:02
I went from my computer, to an FTP site, to another airline computer.
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我得先从自己的电脑连到FTP站，再连到航空公司的电脑。
12:06
Now we have pages -- the unit has been resolved into pages,
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现在，我们有网页，单位变成网页
12:11
so one page links to another page.
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从一页连到其他页。
12:13
And if I want to go in to book a flight,
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如果我想订机位，
12:16
I go into the airline's flight page, the website of the airline,
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就连到航班的页面，航空公司的网站，
12:21
and I'm linking to that page.
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我们之间分享的就是连接。
12:23
And what we're sharing were links, so you had to be kind of open with links.
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你得打开连接。
12:27
You couldn't deny -- if someone wanted to link to you,
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你不能拒绝连接过来的人，
12:29
you couldn't stop them. You had to participate in this idea
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无法阻止，你得参与这个概念，
12:33
of opening up your pages to be linked by anybody.
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就是打开你的页面，让任何人都能连进来。
12:36
So that's what we were doing.
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这就是我们现在做的。
12:38
We're now entering to the third stage, which is what I'm talking about,
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现在我们要进入第三阶段，
12:42
and that is where we link the data.
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我们连接资料的地方。
12:44
So, I don't know what the name of this thing is.
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我不知道这个东西的名字，
12:46
I'm calling it the one machine. But we're linking data.
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先叫它”同一机器“, 我们开始连结资料。
12:48
So we're going from machine to machine,
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从机器连接机器
12:50
from page to page, and now data to data.
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到网页连接网页，现在是资料连接资料。
12:52
So the difference is, is that rather than linking from page to page,
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不同点在于，现在我们并非连接页面，
12:56
we're actually going to link from one idea on a page
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而是连接网页上的一个概念
13:00
to another idea, rather than to the other page.
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到另一个概念，而不是连到另一个网页。
13:02
So every idea is basically being supported --
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所以基本上，每一个概念
13:05
or every item, or every noun -- is being supported by the entire Web.
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或每一个项目或每一个名词，都会受到整个网络的支持。
13:08
It's being resolved at the level of items, or ideas, or words, if you want.
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它已经能解析到项目，或概念，或单字的程度，
13:14
So besides physically coming out again into this idea
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它除了从概念里走出来之外，
13:18
that it's not just virtual, it's actually going out to things.
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它不再只是虚拟，而是会实际地连接到物件。
13:22
So something will resolve down to the information
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它会一直向下解析
13:25
about a particular person, so every person will have a unique ID.
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解析到一个人的资讯，每一个人都有一个独一无二的ID。
13:29
Every person, every item will have a something
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每一个物件都
13:31
that will be very specific, and will link
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有明确的标识，而且会被连接到
13:33
to a specific representation of that idea or item.
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它特定的标徽。
13:37
So now, in this new one, when I link to it,
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所以在这个阶段里，我可以连接到
13:40
I would link to my particular flight, my particular seat.
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特定的航班、特定的座次，
13:46
And so, giving an example of this thing,
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举例来说，
13:49
I live in Pacifica, rather than -- right now Pacifica
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我住在Pacifica,现在Pacifica
13:51
is just sort of a name on the Web somewhere.
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它不过是网络上的一个名字。
13:54
The Web doesn't know that that is actually a town,
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网络并不知道它是一个城市，
13:56
and that it's a specific town that I live in,
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且正是我住的地方。
13:58
but that's what we're going to be talking about.
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但这正是我们即将要提到的。
14:01
It's going to link directly to --
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它将会直接连接，
14:03
it will know, the Web will be able to read itself
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网络将能够自行解读。
14:06
and know that that actually is a place,
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它会知道这是个地名。
14:08
and that whenever it sees that word, "Pacifica,"
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以后只要看到Pacifica，
14:10
it knows that it actually has a place,
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它就知道这是一个地方，
14:11
latitude, longitude, a certain population.
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还知道维度、精度、人口数等信息。
14:14
So here are some of the technical terms, all three-letter things,
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这里有几个科技名词，都由3个字母组成。
14:17
that you'll see a lot more of.
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你应该还看过更多。
14:19
All these things are about enabling this idea of linking to the data.
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这些东西都与实现“资料连接”的概念有关。
14:24
So I'll give you one kind of an example.
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我要举一个例子，
14:27
There's like a billion social sites on the Web.
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网络上有10亿个社群网站。
14:31
Each time you go into there, you have to tell it again who you are
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你每进一个就要再写一次你的资料，你是某某某，
14:34
and all your friends are.
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你的朋友有谁谁谁。
14:35
Why should you be doing that? You should just do that once,
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为什么要这么做？应该做一次就行了。
14:37
and it should know who all your friends are.
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它就应该要知道你的所有朋友。
14:40
So that's what you want, is all your friends are identified,
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这就是你要的，所有朋友都能辨认出来，
14:42
and you should just carry these relationships around.
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你就可以把人际关系带着走。
14:44
All this data about you should just be conveyed,
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所有关于你的资料都应该被传送，
14:47
and you should do it once and that's all that should happen.
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你只需要做一次，就这样。
14:50
And you should have all the networks
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你应该要有这些资料之间的关系网络。
14:52
of all the relationships between those pieces of data.
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这些资料之间的关系网络。
14:54
That's what we're moving into -- where it sort of knows these things down to that level.
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这是我们的下一步，网络要能理解到这种程度。
14:59
A semantic Web, Web 3.0, giant global graph --
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语义网（Semantic Web）、Web 3.0、Giant Global Graph
15:02
we're kind of trying out what we want to call this thing.
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我们还在思考应该怎么称呼它。
15:05
But what's it's doing is sharing data.
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它主要是分享资料。
15:07
So you have to be open to having your data shared, which is a much bigger step
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所以你要开放你的资料，
15:12
than just sharing your Web page, or your computer.
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比起分享网页或电脑，对人类而言是很大的一步。
15:14
And all these things that are going to be on this
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上面的东西，
15:18
are not just pages, they are things.
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不只是网页而是物件。
15:21
Everything we've described, every artifact or place,
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所有谈论的东西、所有产品、所有地点
15:25
will be a specific representation,
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都会是一个特定额表征，
15:27
will have a specific character that can be linked to directly.
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都会有一个特定的字符让我们直接连接，
15:32
So we have this database of things.
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我们会有一个“物品资料库”。
15:34
And so there's actually a fourth thing that we have not get to,
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事实上，还有第四阶段，是我们还没有到达的，
15:38
that we won't see in the next 10 years, or 5,000 days,
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即使在下一个5000天或下一个10年，也都还看不到。
15:40
but I think that's where we're going to. And as the Internet of things --
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不过我想我们终将走到事物的互连的阶段。
15:45
where I'm linking directly to the particular things of my seat on the plane --
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我可以直接我自己和飞机座位上的一样具体的东向联系起来
15:49
that that physical thing becomes part of the Web.
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这样实际的东西会成为网络的一部分。
15:52
And so we are in the middle of this thing
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所以，我们处在一个
15:54
that's completely linked, down to every object
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“完全连接”的世界，
15:57
in the little sliver of a connection that it has.
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每一个物件都内嵌连接。
15:59
So, the last thing I want to talk about is this idea
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最后一个概念是，
16:01
that we're going to be codependent.
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相互依存。
16:04
It's always going to be there, and the closer it is, the better.
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它永远都在，越近越好。
16:08
If you allow Google to, it will tell you your search history.
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如果你授权谷歌，它可以给你，你的搜索记录。
16:11
And I found out by looking at it
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我看着搜索记录，
16:13
that I search most at 11 o'clock in the morning.
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发现今天早上11点我查了不少东西。
16:16
So I am open, and being transparent to that.
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原来我是开放的，我是透明的。
16:19
And I think total personalization in this new world will require total transparency.
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我想在这个世界里，完全地个人化，需要你全然地透明。
16:25
That is going to be the price.
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那将付出代价。
16:27
If you want to have total personalization,
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如果你要完全地个人化，
16:28
you have to be totally transparent.
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你将需要彻底透明，
16:30
Google. I can't remember my phone number, I'll just ask Google.
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如果忘记自己的电话号码，我可以查谷歌。
16:33
We're so dependent on this that I have now gotten to the point
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我们是多么地依赖它，以至于到了那个时候
16:35
where I don't even try to remember things --
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我不再需要记住任何事。
16:37
I'll just Google it. It's easier to do that.
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我只要查谷歌就好了。简单多了。
16:39
And we kind of object at first, saying, "Oh, that's awful."
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我们或许会反感，会说“那可真没劲”。
16:42
But if we think about the dependency that we have on this other technology,
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但想想，我们不也依赖着
16:45
called the alphabet, and writing,
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字母和书写？
16:47
we're totally dependent on it, and it's transformed culture.
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我们完全地依赖它们，这不过是种转变。
16:50
We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing.
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我们无法想象没有字母和书写的日子。
16:54
And so in the same way, we're going to not imagine ourselves
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同样的，我们无法想象
16:57
without this other machine being there.
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没有这部机器。
16:59
And what is happening with this is
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它正在发展一种
17:02
some kind of AI, but it's not the AI in conscious AI,
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人工智慧，并不是拥有个人意识的人工智慧。
17:04
as being an expert, Larry Page told me
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这是拉瑞·佩吉（谷歌的创办人之一）告诉我的
17:07
that that's what they're trying to do,
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这是他们正在努力的方向。
17:08
and that's what they're trying to do.
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这是他们正在努力的方向。
17:10
But when six billion humans are Googling,
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但是当60亿人同时搜索时，
17:13
who's searching who? It goes both ways.
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是谁在查谁呢？是双向的。
17:15
So we are the Web, that's what this thing is.
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意即，我们就是网络。这就是真相。
17:19
We are going to be the machine.
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我们将会成为这部机器。
17:21
So the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the Web and only better.
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所以，在下一个5000天，它不会是网络，而会是某个更好的东西。
17:26
Just like it wasn't TV and only better.
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就像不是电视是比电视更好的东西。
17:28
The next 5,000 days, it's not just going to be the Web
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在下一个5000天，它不会是网络
17:31
but only better -- it's going to be something different.
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而会是某个更好的东西，它会是个不一样的东西。
17:33
And I think it's going to be smarter.
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我想，它会更聪明，它会有智慧。
17:37
It'll have an intelligence in there, that's not, again, conscious.
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不是拥有个人意识的人工智慧，
17:41
But it'll anticipate what we're doing, in a good sense.
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而是能在合理的范围内预测我们的行为。
17:45
Secondly, it's become much more personalized.
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第二，它会更加人性化。
17:48
It will know us, and that's good.
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它会了解我们，这是好事。
17:50
And again, the price of that will be transparency.
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但代价是，我们必须透明化。
17:54
And thirdly, it's going to become more ubiquitous
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第三，它会更无所不在，
17:56
in terms of filling your entire environment, and we will be in the middle of it.
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充斥四周，我们身在其中。
18:01
And all these devices will be portals into that.
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我们手上的装置会是进入它的入口。
18:04
So the single idea that I wanted to leave with you
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我要给你们的一个观念就是，
18:07
is that we have to begin to think about this as not just "the Web, only better,"
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我们必须开始了解它不会是web，而会是某个更好的东西。
18:13
but a new kind of stage in this development.
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一个全新的阶段和发展，
18:16
It looks more global. If you take this whole thing,
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更全球化
18:19
it is a very big machine, very reliable machine,
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它是个极大的机器，非常可靠，
18:22
more reliable than its parts.
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比它自己的零件可靠，
18:24
But we can also think about it as kind of a large organism.
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可以把它想做是一个巨大的有机体。
18:27
So we might respond to it more as if this was a whole system,
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我们可与之互动，它甚至超越一个系统，
18:32
more as if this wasn't a large organism
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超越一个与我们互动的巨大有机体，
18:34
that we are going to be interacting with. It's a "One."
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它是”一“。
18:38
And I don't know what else to call it, than the One.
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除了”一“，我不知道还能怎么称呼它。
18:41
We'll have a better word for it.
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我们终会给它一个更好的名字。
18:42
But there's a unity of some sort that's starting to emerge.
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重点是，它渐渐形成一种单一性。
18:45
And again, I don't want to talk about consciousness,
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再次强调，我不是谈论个人意识，
18:48
I want to talk about it just as if it was a little bacteria,
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我把它看做想个细菌
18:50
or a volvox, which is what that organism is.
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或藻类的东西，也就是我们所说的有机体。
18:53
So, to do, action, take-away. So, here's what I would say:
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最后，我留下几个字给大家：
18:59
there's only one machine, and the Web is its OS.
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"世上只有一部机器，网络是它的作业系统"
19:03
All screens look into the One. No bits will live outside the Web.
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“所有屏幕都通向它，每个位元都在其中”
19:07
To share is to gain. Let the One read it.
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“分享就能获取，让the ONE看懂”
19:11
It's going to be machine-readable.
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你会弄些这部机器
19:12
You want to make something that the machine can read.
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看得懂的东西。
19:15
And the One is us. We are in the One.
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“那个一就是我们，我们就是那个一”
19:20
I appreciate your time.
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谢谢大家。
19:22
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionaryThere may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology.
Why you should listen
Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at Wired magazine (which he co-founded, and where he now holds the title of Senior Maverick), founder of visionary nonprofits and writer on biology, business and “cool tools.” He’s renounced all material things save his bicycle (which he then rode 3,000 miles), founded an organization (the All-Species Foundation) to catalog all life on Earth, championed projects that look 10,000 years into the future (at the Long Now Foundation), and more. He’s admired for his acute perspectives on technology and its relevance to history, biology and society. His new book, The Inevitable, just published, explores 12 technological forces that will shape our future.
Kevin Kelly | Speaker | TED.com