EG 2007
Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web
Kevin Kelly o slijedećih 5000 dana weba
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Na 2007 EG konferenciji, Kevin Kelly je podijelio zabavnu statistiku: World Wide Web kakvog znamo je samo 5000 dana star. I sada se Kelly pita kako ćemo predvidjeti što dolazi u slijedećih 5000 dana.
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionary
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
There may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
The Internet, the Web as we know it,
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Internet, mreža kakvu znamo,
00:18
the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about --
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u obliku kakvog znamo -- stvari o kojima svi mi govorimo --
00:21
is already less than 5,000 days old.
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nije starija od 5000 dana.
00:25
So all of the things that we've seen come about,
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Sve stvari kojima svjedočimo,
00:29
starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth,
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počevši sa, recimo, satelitskim snimkama cijele Zemlje,
00:32
which we couldn't even imagine happening before,
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koje nismo mogli prije niti zamisliti --
00:35
all these things rolling into our lives,
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sve te stvari koje se pojavljuju u našim životima,
00:39
just this abundance of things that are right before us,
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naprosto to mnoštvo stvari, koje se nalaze doslovce ispred nas,
00:44
sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop.
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kada sjedimo pred laptopom ili stolnim računalom...
00:46
This kind of cornucopia of stuff
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... takvo izobilje stvari,
00:48
just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed.
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koje neprestano dolaze bez naznake kraju, je zadivljujuće, a mi uopće nismo zadivljeni.
00:54
It's really amazing that all this stuff is here.
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Stvarno je impresivno da su sve te stvari ovdje.
00:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:59
It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come.
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I to se sve pojavilo u tih 5000 dana.
01:03
And I know that 10 years ago,
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I znam, da kada bih vam prije 10 godina
01:06
if I had told you that this was all coming,
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rekao što sve dolazi,
01:08
you would have said that that's impossible.
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vi biste rekli da je to nemoguće.
01:11
There's simply no economic model that that would be possible.
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Da jednostavno ne postoji ekonomski model koji bi to omogućio.
01:16
And if I told you it was all coming for free,
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I ako bi vam rekao da to sve dolazi besplatno,
01:18
you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming.
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jednostavno bi rekli: "Ti sanjaš."
01:20
You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist.
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"Ti si kalifornijski utopist." "Ti si lakovjeran optimist."
01:24
And yet it's here.
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A ipak je ovdje.
01:26
The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago,
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Druga stvar koja nam je poznata, za koju smo prije deset godina,
01:30
as I looked at what even Wired was talking about,
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o čemu je čak i Wired pisao,
01:33
we thought it was going to be TV, but better.
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mislili da će biti kao televizija, samo bolje.
01:36
That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting
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To je bio model; to je bilo ono za što su svi pretpostavljali
01:40
was going to be coming.
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da je ono što nadolazi.
01:42
And it turns out that that's not what it was.
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I pokazalo se da to nije ono što se desilo.
01:45
First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was.
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Kao prvo, bilo je nemoguće... i nije ono što se desilo.
01:48
And so one of the things that I think we're learning --
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Tako da je jedna od stvari, koju mislim da učimo --
01:49
if you think about, like, Wikipedia,
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ako pomislite npr. na Wikipediju,
01:51
it's something that was simply impossible.
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to nešto što je bilo jednostavno nezamislivo.
01:53
It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice.
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Nemoguće je u teoriji, ali moguće u praksi.
01:57
And if you take all these things that are impossible,
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I ako uzmete sve te stvari koje su nemoguće,
01:58
I think one of the things that we're learning from this era,
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mislim da je jedna od stvari koje učimo od ove ere,
02:02
from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible,
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od ovog posljednjeg desetljeća, jest da trebamo postati dobri u vjerovanje u nemoguće,
02:06
because we're unprepared for it.
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jer nismo spremni na takvo nešto.
02:09
So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days.
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Tako da sam znatiželjan što će se dogoditi u slijedećih 5000 dana.
02:12
But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days,
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Ali ako se ovo sve dogodilo u proteklih 5000 dana,
02:14
what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days?
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što li će se tek dogoditi u slijedećih 5000 dana?
02:17
So, I have a kind of a simple story,
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Dakle, imam nešto poput jednostavne priče,
02:20
and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making,
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koja nagoviještava da je ono o čemu želimo razmišljati, zapravo ono što sada radimo,
02:23
this thing that has happened in 5,000 days --
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ova stvar koja se dogodila u proteklih 5000 dana.
02:25
that's all these computers, all these handhelds,
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To su sva ova računala, svi ovi ručni uređaji,
02:28
all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers --
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svi ovi mobiteli, svi ovi laptopi i svi ovi serveri --
02:32
basically what we're getting out of all these connections
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u biti svi ovi uređaji koji su međusobno povezani
02:36
is we're getting one machine.
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postaju jedan stroj.
02:38
If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices
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Ako postoji samo jedno računalo -- naši mali ručni uređaji i sprave
02:42
are actually just little windows into those machines,
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su zapravo samo mali prozori u taj stroj.
02:44
but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.
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Mi u biti stvaramo jedan, globalan stroj.
02:50
And so I began to think about that.
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I tako sam počeo razmišljati o tome.
02:52
And it turned out that this machine happens to be
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I pokazalo se da je taj stroj
02:55
the most reliable machine that we've ever made.
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najpouzdaniji stroj kojeg smo ikad napravili.
02:58
It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted.
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Nikad se nije srušio, i radi neprekidno.
03:00
And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made
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Gotovo da nema drugog stroja koji smo napravili,
03:03
that runs the number of hours, the number of days.
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a da radi bez prekida toliko sati, toliko dana.
03:07
5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable.
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5000 dana bez prekida -- to je gotovo nevjerojatno.
03:10
And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days;
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I naravno, Internet je stariji od samo 5000 dana --
03:12
the Web is only 5,000 days.
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samo Web je star 5000 dana.
03:14
So, I was trying to basically make measurements.
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Stoga sam pokušao izvršiti neka mjerenja.
03:20
What are the dimensions of this machine?
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Koje su zapravo dimenzije ovog stroja?
03:23
And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are
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Počeo sam računajući koliko milijardi klikova ima
03:27
all around the globe on all the computers.
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na svim računalima širom planeta.
03:30
And there is a 100 billion clicks per day.
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I to je ukupno 100 milijardi klikova po danu.
03:32
And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.
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Postoji 55 bilijuna linkova između svih Web stranica na svijetu.
03:38
And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions,
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Pa sam počeo razmišljati o drugim oblicima dimenzija,
03:41
and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer,
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i napravio sam kratku listu -- je li Chris Jordan, fotograf, bio taj
03:46
talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless?
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koji je govorio o tome da li tako velike brojke postaju besmislene?
03:50
Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell,
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Dakle, ovdje je cijeli popis. Teško je sa sigurnošću reći,
03:52
but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet,
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ali trenutno je milijardu PC čipova spojeno na Internet,
03:56
if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet.
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ako prebrojimo sve čipove u svim računalima koja su trenutno priključena na Internet.
03:58
There's two million emails per second.
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Svake sekunde pošalje se dva milijuna e-mailova.
04:00
So it's a very big number.
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To je zaista vrlo velik broj.
04:02
It's just a huge machine,
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To je samo ogroman stroj,
04:04
and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet.
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koji koristi 5 posto ukupne električne energije na planetu.
04:08
So here's the specifications,
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I ovdje su specifikacije,
04:09
just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it:
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baš kao da radimo tehnički opis za taj stroj:
04:11
170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links,
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170 bilijardi tranzistora, 55 bilijuna veza,
04:15
emails running at two megahertz itself,
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e-mailovi rade na 2 MHz,
04:17
31 kilohertz text messaging,
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slanje tekstualnih poruka na 31 kHz,
04:20
246 exabyte storage. That's a big disk.
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Prostor za pohranu podataka od 246 heksabajta. To je veliki disk.
04:24
That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM.
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To je puno podataka -- RAM od 9 heksabajta.
04:27
And the total traffic on this
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I kompletan promet na njemu
04:31
is running at seven terabytes per second.
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je sedam terabajta u sekundi.
04:34
Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes.
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Prema Brewsteru Kongresna knjižnica je veličine dvadeset terabajta.
04:37
So every second, half of the Library of Congress
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Tako da svake sekunde pola Kongresne knjižnice
04:40
is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.
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prolazi ovim strojem. To je velik stroj.
04:44
So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day,
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I tako sam napravio nešto drugo. Izračunao sam da je 100 milijardi klikova na dan,
04:48
55 trillion links is almost the same
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55 bilijuna linkova je gotovo jednako
04:51
as the number of synapses in your brain.
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broju sinapsi u vašem mozgu.
04:53
A quadrillion transistors is almost the same
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Bilijarda tranzistora gotovo je jednaka
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as the number of neurons in your brain.
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broju neurona u vašem mozgu.
04:57
So to a first approximation, we have these things --
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I tako prema prvim procjenama, ova stvar ima --
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twenty petahertz synapse firings.
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20 PHz korištenja sinapsi.
05:02
Of course, the memory is really huge.
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Naravno memorija je stvarno ogromna.
05:04
But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size --
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Ali ovaj stroj je u prvoj aproksimaciji, spram svoje veličine
05:10
and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain.
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i kompleksnosti, poput -- vašeg mozga.
05:15
Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works.
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Jer zapravo, tako radi vaš mozak -- otprilike na sličan način kao i Web.
05:19
However, your brain isn't doubling every two years.
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Međutim, vaš mozak se ne udvostručuje svake dvije godine.
05:23
So if we say this machine right now that we've made
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I ako kažemo da je trenutno taj stroj kojeg smo napravili
05:28
is about one HB, one human brain,
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veličine jednog ljudskog mozga,
05:31
if we look at the rate that this is increasing,
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i ako pogledamo brzinu kojom se povećava,
05:34
30 years from now, there'll be six billion HBs.
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za trideset godina će biti velik poput šest milijardi ljudskih mozgova.
05:39
So by the year 2040, the total processing of this machine
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Prema tome će do 2040. godine, ukupna procesorska snaga tog stroja
05:43
will exceed a total processing power of humanity,
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nadići procesorsku snagu čovječanstva,
05:46
in raw bits and stuff. And this is, I think, where
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u sirovim bitovima i slično. I mislim da o tome
05:49
Ray Kurzweil and others get this little chart saying that we're going to cross.
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Ray Kurzweil i ostali govore kao stvarima s kojima ćemo se susretati.
05:54
So, what about that? Well, here's a couple of things.
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Dakle, što je sa tim? Pa, ovdje je nekoliko stvari.
06:00
I have three kind of general things
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U biti tri općenite stvari.
06:03
I would like to say, three consequences of this.
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Želio bi reći; tri posljedice toga.
06:07
First, that basically what this machine is doing is embodying.
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Kao prvo, mislim da taj stroj dobiva oblik --
06:12
We're giving it a body. And that's what we're going to do
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dajemo mu tijelo. I to je ono što ćemo napraviti
06:14
in the next 5,000 days -- we're going to give this machine a body.
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u slijedećih 5000 dana - dat ćemo tom stroju oblik.
06:17
And the second thing is, we're going to restructure its architecture.
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Druga stvar je, da ćemo restrukturirati njegovu arhitekturu.
06:20
And thirdly, we're going to become completely codependent upon it.
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A treća stvar je, da ćemo postati u potpunosti ovisni o njemu.
06:24
So let me go through those three things.
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Dozvolite mi da detaljno objasnim te tri stvari.
06:26
First of all, we have all these things in our hands.
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Kao prvo, imamo sve te stvari u našim rukama.
06:29
We think they're all separate devices,
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Mislimo da su sve to različiti uređaji,
06:31
but in fact, every screen in the world
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ali u biti svaki ekran na svijetu
06:34
is looking into the one machine.
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gleda u samo jedan stroj.
06:37
These are all basically portals into that one machine.
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Sve su to zapravo samo prozori u taj stroj.
06:40
The second thing is that -- some people call this the cloud,
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Druga stvar je da to - neki ljudi to zovu oblakom,
06:44
and you're kind of touching the cloud with this.
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i mi na neki način dodirujemo taj oblak.
06:46
And so in some ways, all you really need is a cloudbook.
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Na neki način, sve što vam treba je uređaj za oblak ("cloudbook").
06:50
And the cloudbook doesn't have any storage.
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I taj uređaj ne treba nikakav disk.
06:53
It's wireless. It's always connected.
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On je bežićan. Uvijek je povezan.
06:56
There's many things about it. It becomes very simple,
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Ima puno stvari o njemu. Postaje jako jednostavno,
06:58
and basically what you're doing is you're just touching the machine,
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i u osnovi sve što radite je samo dodirivanje stroja,
07:00
you're touching the cloud and you're going to compute that way.
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dodirujete oblak i na taj način radite.
07:03
So the machine is computing.
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Tako da taj stroj radi.
07:05
And in some ways, it's sort of back
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I na neki način, to je
07:06
to the kind of old idea of centralized computing.
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povratak stare ideje o centraliziranom računalu.
07:09
But everything, all the cameras, and the microphones,
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Ali sve, sve kamere, i svi mikrofoni,
07:13
and the sensors in cars
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i senzori u automobilima,
07:17
and everything is connected to this machine.
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sve je to povezano s tim strojem.
07:19
And everything will go through the Web.
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I sve ići preko Mreže.
07:21
And we're seeing that already with, say, phones.
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To već danas možemo vidjeti na primjeru telefona.
07:23
Right now, phones don't go through the Web,
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Još uvijek ne rade svi preko Mreže,
07:25
but they are beginning to, and they will.
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ali počinju i uskoro hoće.
07:28
And if you imagine what, say, just as an example, what Google Labs has
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I ako zamislite, samo kao primjer, što sve Google Labs sadrži;
07:32
in terms of experiments with Google Docs, Google Spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah --
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eksperimentiranje s Google dokumentima, Google tablicama, ...
07:36
all these things are going to become Web based.
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Sve te stvari postaju prilagođene za web.
07:39
They're going through the machine.
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Sve prolazi kroz stroj.
07:41
And I am suggesting that every bit will be owned by the Web.
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Pretpostavljam da će svaki bit biti na Webu.
07:46
Right now, it's not. If you do spreadsheets and things at work,
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Za sada nije -- ako radite s tabličnim kalkulacijama,
07:49
a Word document, they aren't on the Web,
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ili Word dokumentom, oni još nisu na webu,
07:52
but they are going to be. They're going to be part of this machine.
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ali će uskoro biti. Oni će biti dio ovog stroja.
07:54
They're going to speak the Web language.
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Oni će govoriti jezik Web-a.
07:56
They're going to talk to the machine.
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Oni će pričati sa strojem.
07:58
The Web, in some sense, is kind of like a black hole
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Web je, u nekom smislu, poput crne rupe,
08:01
that's sucking up everything into it.
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koja uvlači sve u sebe.
08:04
And so every thing will be part of the Web.
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I sve će biti dio weba.
08:08
So every item, every artifact that we make, will have embedded in it
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Svaki predmet, svaka stvar koju smo izradili biti će
08:13
some little sliver of Web-ness and connection,
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pomalo protkana nitima Mreže
08:16
and it will be part of this machine,
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i biti će dio tog stroja,
08:18
so that our environment -- kind of in that ubiquitous computing sense --
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tako da naše okruženje -- u smislu sveprisutnog računala --
08:21
our environment becomes the Web. Everything is connected.
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postaje Web. Sve je povezano.
08:26
Now, with RFIDs and other things -- whatever technology it is,
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Bilo sa RFID-ovima ili drugim stvarima -- koja god tehnologija bila,
08:29
it doesn't really matter. The point is that everything
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zapravo nije ni važno, poanta je da će sve
08:32
will have embedded in it some sensor connecting it to the machine,
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na neki način biti povezana sa strojem,
08:35
and so we have, basically, an Internet of things.
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tako da ćemo zapravo imati Internet stvari.
08:38
So you begin to think of a shoe as a chip with heels,
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I tako da ćemo poćeti gledati na cipele kao na čip s petama,
08:42
and a car as a chip with wheels,
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a aute kao čip sa kotačima.
08:45
because basically most of the cost of manufacturing cars
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Zato je u osnovi većina troškova proizvodnje auta
08:48
is the embedded intelligence and electronics in it, and not the materials.
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u uključenoj inteligenciji i elektronici u njemu, a ne u materijalima.
08:54
A lot of people think about the new economy
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Veliki broj ljudi razmišlja o novoj ekonomiji
08:56
as something that was going to be a disembodied,
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kao o nečemu što će biti bez oblika,
08:58
alternative, virtual existence,
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alternativno virtualno postojanje,
09:01
and that we would have the old economy of atoms.
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i imat ćemo staru ekonomiju atoma.
09:04
But in fact, what the new economy really is
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Ali će zapravo nova ekonomija biti
09:07
is the marriage of those two, where we embed the information,
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spoj tih dvaju, gdje su informacije,
09:11
and the digital nature of things into the material world.
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i digitalne prirode stvari uklopljeni u materijalni svijet.
09:13
That's what we're looking forward to. That is where we're going --
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To je ono ćemu se nadamo. To je ono prema ćemu idemo -
09:17
this union, this convergence of the atomic and the digital.
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ta unija, spoj atomskog i digitalnog.
09:24
And so one of the consequences of that, I believe,
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I jedna od posljedica toga će, vjerujem biti,
09:26
is that where we have this sort of spectrum of media right now --
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ono što sad imamo kao spektar medija --
09:30
TV, film, video -- that basically becomes one media platform.
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TV, film, video - to će postati jedna medjiska platforma.
09:33
And while there's many differences in some senses,
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I dok postoji još mnogo razlika na neki način,
09:35
they will share more and more in common with each other.
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oni će imati sve više i više zajedničkog.
09:38
So that the laws of media, such as the fact that copies have no value,
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I takav će biti zakon medija: činjenica da kopije neće imati neku vrijednost.
09:43
the value's in the uncopiable things,
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Vrijednost je u stvarima koje se neće moći kopirati.
09:45
the immediacy, the authentication, the personalization.
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Neposrednost, autentičnost, personalizacija --
09:50
The media wants to be liquid.
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mediji žele biti tekući;
09:53
The reason why things are free is so that you can manipulate them,
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razlog zašto su stvari besplatne je tako da možemo manipulirati s njima,
09:56
not so that they are "free" as in "beer," but "free" as in "freedom."
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i ne tako "besplatne" kao "besplatno pivo", nego besplatne u smislu slobode.
10:00
And the network effects rule,
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I sada mrežni sustavi vladaju -
10:02
meaning that the more you have, the more you get.
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znači da što više imaš, to više dobivaš.
10:04
The first fax machine -- the person who bought the first fax machine
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Prvi telefaks -- osoba koja je kupila prvi telefaks
10:07
was an idiot, because there was nobody to fax to.
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je bila idiot, zato jer nije imala kome slati faksove.
10:12
But here she became an evangelist, recruiting others
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Ali je s tim postala poslanik, regrutirajući druge
10:16
to get the fax machines because it made their purchase more valuable.
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da nabave telefaks uređaje jer će onda njegova postati vrijednija.
10:19
Those are the effects that we're going to see.
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To su efekti koje ćemo vidjeti.
10:21
Attention is the currency.
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Pažnja je valuta.
10:23
So those laws are going to kind of spread throughout all media.
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I tako će se ti zakoni širiti preko medija.
10:28
And the other thing about this embodiment
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I druga stvar u vezi ovog dobivanja oblika
10:30
is that there's kind of what I call the McLuhan reversal.
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je ono što zovem McLuhanov preobrat.
10:33
McLuhan was saying, "Machines are the extensions of the human senses."
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McLuhan je rekao, "Strojevi su produžetak ljudskih osjetila"
10:35
And I'm saying, "Humans are now going to be
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I ja kažem, "Ljudi će biti
10:37
the extended senses of the machine," in a certain sense.
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produžena osjetila strojeva", na neki način.
10:40
So we have a trillion eyes, and ears, and touches,
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Imat ćemo bilijune očiju, ušiju i dodira,
10:44
through all our digital photographs and cameras.
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sve preko naših digitalnih fotografija i kamera.
10:47
And we see that in things like Flickr,
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I sad vidimo stvari poput Flickra,
10:52
or Photosynth, this program from Microsoft
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ili Photosyntha, Microsoftovog programa
10:55
that will allow you to assemble a view of a touristy place
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koji će vam omogućiti da sastavite izgled turističkog mjesta
10:59
from the thousands of tourist snapshots of it.
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od tisuća različitih turističkih fotografija.
11:03
In a certain sense, the machine is seeing through the pixels of individual cameras.
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Na neki način, stroj gleda kroz pixele individualnih kamera.
11:09
Now, the second thing that I want to talk about was this idea of restructuring,
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Druga stvar o kojoj želim pričati je ideja o restrukturiranju --
11:13
that what the Web is doing is restructuring.
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to je ono što sad web radi.
11:15
And I have to warn you, that what we'll talk about is --
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I moram vas upozoriti da je ono o ćemu čemo govoriti --
11:17
I'm going to give my explanation of a term you're hearing, which is a "semantic Web."
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ono o čemu ću vam dati vlastito objašnjenje termina "semantički web".
11:21
So first of all, the first stage that we've seen
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Kao prvo, početna razina onoga što smo vidjeli
11:24
of the Internet was that it was going to link computers.
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od Interneta je međusobno povezivanje računala.
11:27
And that's what we called the Net; that was the Internet of nets.
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I to je ono što zovemo Mreža -- to je Internet sastavljen od mreža.
11:30
And we saw that, where you have all the computers of the world.
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I vidjeli smo kako je ako sva računala na svijetu -
11:33
And if you remember, it was a kind of green screen with cursors,
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i ako se sjećate, nekad su bili zeleni ekrani s kursorima,
11:37
and there was really not much to do, and if you wanted to connect it,
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i nije se baš moglo puno raditi, i ako ste ih željeli umrežiti,
11:39
you connected it from one computer to another computer.
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spojili ste jedno računalo s drugim
11:42
And what you had to do was -- if you wanted to participate in this,
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I ono što ste trebali činiti, ako ste htjeli sudjelovati u tome,
11:44
you had to share packets of information.
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je dijeljenje paketa informacija.
11:48
So you were forwarding on. You didn't have control.
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Samo ste ih proslijeđivali. Niste imali nikakvu kontrolu.
11:50
It wasn't like a telephone system where you had control of a line:
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Nije bilo poput telefonskog sustava gdje ste imali kontrolu linije -
11:52
you had to share packets.
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morali ste dijeliti pakete.
11:54
The second stage that we're in now is the idea of linking pages.
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Druga faza razvoja je bila ideja o povezivanju stranica.
11:59
So in the old one, if I wanted to go on to an airline Web page,
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I prije, ako ste željeli otići na stranicu avio prijevoznika,
12:02
I went from my computer, to an FTP site, to another airline computer.
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morali ste se spojiti s računala na FTP, i onda na drugo računalo avio prijevoznika.
12:06
Now we have pages -- the unit has been resolved into pages,
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I sada imamo stranice -- cjelina je razložena na stranice,
12:11
so one page links to another page.
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tako da se jedna stranica povezuje na drugu.
12:13
And if I want to go in to book a flight,
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I ako želim rezervirati let,
12:16
I go into the airline's flight page, the website of the airline,
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Idem na stranice letova avionske kompanije, web sajt avionskog prijevoznika,
12:21
and I'm linking to that page.
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i povezujem se na tu stranicu.
12:23
And what we're sharing were links, so you had to be kind of open with links.
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I ono što dijelimo su linkovi, s kojima ste prisiljeni biti na neki način javni.
12:27
You couldn't deny -- if someone wanted to link to you,
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Ne možete odbiti -- ako se netko želi povezati na vas,
12:29
you couldn't stop them. You had to participate in this idea
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ne možete ih zaustaviti; morate sudjelovati u toj ideji
12:33
of opening up your pages to be linked by anybody.
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otvaranja vaših stranica kako bi mogle biti povezane od bilo koga.
12:36
So that's what we were doing.
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I to je ono što radimo.
12:38
We're now entering to the third stage, which is what I'm talking about,
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I sad ulazimo u treću fazu, to je ona o kojoj sad pričam,
12:42
and that is where we link the data.
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to je kad povezujemo sve podatke.
12:44
So, I don't know what the name of this thing is.
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Neznam kako se ta stvar zove.
12:46
I'm calling it the one machine. But we're linking data.
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Ja je zovem "jedan stroj". Ali mi povezujemo podatke.
12:48
So we're going from machine to machine,
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I tako idemo od stroja do stroja,
12:50
from page to page, and now data to data.
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od stranice do stranice do stranice, i sada od podatka do podatka.
12:52
So the difference is, is that rather than linking from page to page,
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I tako razlika je, da ćemo umjesto povezivanja od stranice do stranice,
12:56
we're actually going to link from one idea on a page
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zapravo povezati jednu ideju na stranici
13:00
to another idea, rather than to the other page.
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s drugom idejom, na nekoj drugoj stranici.
13:02
So every idea is basically being supported --
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Tako je u osnovi svaka ideja podržana --
13:05
or every item, or every noun -- is being supported by the entire Web.
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svaka stvar, svaki pojam -- su podržani na webu.
13:08
It's being resolved at the level of items, or ideas, or words, if you want.
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Sve se rješava na razini pojmova, ideja ili riječi.
13:14
So besides physically coming out again into this idea
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Osim što fizički pristupamo toj ideji,
13:18
that it's not just virtual, it's actually going out to things.
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koja nije samo virtualna, ona zapravo poseže za fizičkim stvarima.
13:22
So something will resolve down to the information
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Tako će nešto moći doći do informacija
13:25
about a particular person, so every person will have a unique ID.
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o nekoj određenoj osobi i svaka će osoba imati jedinstveni identifikator.
13:29
Every person, every item will have a something
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Svaka osoba, svaka stvar, će imati nešto
13:31
that will be very specific, and will link
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što će biti vrlo specifično, i povezivat će
13:33
to a specific representation of that idea or item.
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na specifičnu reprezentaciju te ideje ili stvari.
13:37
So now, in this new one, when I link to it,
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Tako sada u ovom novom, kad se povežem na njega,
13:40
I would link to my particular flight, my particular seat.
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povezet ću se na moj određen let, na točno moje sjedalo.
13:46
And so, giving an example of this thing,
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I -- sad ću vam dati primjer te stvari --
13:49
I live in Pacifica, rather than -- right now Pacifica
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Živim u Pacifici -- i sada je Pacifica
13:51
is just sort of a name on the Web somewhere.
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samo ime negdje na webu.
13:54
The Web doesn't know that that is actually a town,
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Web nezna da je zapravo u pitanju grad,
13:56
and that it's a specific town that I live in,
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i to točno onaj grad u kojem živim ja,
13:58
but that's what we're going to be talking about.
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a to je točno to o ćemu ću vam pričati.
14:01
It's going to link directly to --
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Povezati će vas direktno na --
14:03
it will know, the Web will be able to read itself
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web će bit u mogućnosti čitati samog sebe
14:06
and know that that actually is a place,
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i znati će da je to zapravo mjesto,
14:08
and that whenever it sees that word, "Pacifica,"
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i gdje god vidi riječ "Pacifica",
14:10
it knows that it actually has a place,
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zna da to mjesto zapravo ima
14:11
latitude, longitude, a certain population.
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točne koordinate i određenu populaciju.
14:14
So here are some of the technical terms, all three-letter things,
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I ovdje su neki tehnički izrazi, sve stvari od tri slova,
14:17
that you'll see a lot more of.
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i od toga ćete vidjeti mnogo više.
14:19
All these things are about enabling this idea of linking to the data.
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I sve te stvari koje omogućuju ideju povezivanja podataka.
14:24
So I'll give you one kind of an example.
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Dati ću vam primjer.
14:27
There's like a billion social sites on the Web.
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Trenutno je hrpa društvenih stranica na webu.
14:31
Each time you go into there, you have to tell it again who you are
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I svaki put dok idete na neku novu, morate ispočetka reći
14:34
and all your friends are.
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tko ste i tko su vaši prijatelji.
14:35
Why should you be doing that? You should just do that once,
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Zašto bi to trebali raditi ? Trebali bi to napraviti samo jednom
14:37
and it should know who all your friends are.
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i svi bi trebali znati tko su vaši prijatelji.
14:40
So that's what you want, is all your friends are identified,
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I to je ono što želite, da su svi vaši prijatelji identificirani,
14:42
and you should just carry these relationships around.
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i da odnose s njima samo prenositi.
14:44
All this data about you should just be conveyed,
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Svi ti podaci o vama bi trebali biti prenosivi,
14:47
and you should do it once and that's all that should happen.
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i trebali bi ih samo jednom unjeti.
14:50
And you should have all the networks
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I trebali bi imati sve mreže
14:52
of all the relationships between those pieces of data.
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svih odnosa između tih dijelova podataka.
14:54
That's what we're moving into -- where it sort of knows these things down to that level.
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To je ono prema ćemu idemo - gdje se znaju te stvari do te razine.
14:59
A semantic Web, Web 3.0, giant global graph --
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Sematički web, Web 3.0, divovski globalni grafikon --
15:02
we're kind of trying out what we want to call this thing.
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pokušavamo odlučiti kako ćemo zvati tu stvari.
15:05
But what's it's doing is sharing data.
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Ali ono što će raditi je dijeljenje podataka.
15:07
So you have to be open to having your data shared, which is a much bigger step
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Tako na ćete morati biti otvoreni prema dijeljenju svojih informacija, što je mnogo veća stvar
15:12
than just sharing your Web page, or your computer.
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nego samo dijeliti web stranicu ili vaše računalo.
15:14
And all these things that are going to be on this
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I sve te stvari će biti na tome
15:18
are not just pages, they are things.
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ne samo stranice, to su stvari.
15:21
Everything we've described, every artifact or place,
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Sve što smo opisali, svaka stvar ili mjesto,
15:25
will be a specific representation,
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će biti specifična reprezentacija,
15:27
will have a specific character that can be linked to directly.
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i imati će specifično značenje na koje će biti direktno povezana.
15:32
So we have this database of things.
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Tako ćemo imati bazu tih stvari.
15:34
And so there's actually a fourth thing that we have not get to,
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I to je zapravo četvrta stvar kojoj idemo,
15:38
that we won't see in the next 10 years, or 5,000 days,
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koju nećemo vidjeti u slijedećih deset godina, ili 5,000 dana,
15:40
but I think that's where we're going to. And as the Internet of things --
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ali ja mislim da idemo prema tome. I kao što Internet stvari --
15:45
where I'm linking directly to the particular things of my seat on the plane --
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gdje se direktno povezujem na konkretne stvari mog sjedala u avionu --
15:49
that that physical thing becomes part of the Web.
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koje fizički postaju dijelom Mreže.
15:52
And so we are in the middle of this thing
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I tako smo sada usred te stvari
15:54
that's completely linked, down to every object
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koja je potpuno povezana, do zadnjeg objekata
15:57
in the little sliver of a connection that it has.
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protkanog nitima poveznicama.
15:59
So, the last thing I want to talk about is this idea
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I tako, zadnja stvar o kojoj želim pričati je ta ideja
16:01
that we're going to be codependent.
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da ćemo svi biti međusobno zavisni.
16:04
It's always going to be there, and the closer it is, the better.
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Stalno će biti tamo, i što bliže, to bolje.
16:08
If you allow Google to, it will tell you your search history.
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Ako dopustite Googlu, reći će vam vašu povijest pretraživanja.
16:11
And I found out by looking at it
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I ja sam saznao
16:13
that I search most at 11 o'clock in the morning.
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da najviše pretražujem u 11 sati u jutro.
16:16
So I am open, and being transparent to that.
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Dakle, ja sam otvoren i transparentan.
16:19
And I think total personalization in this new world will require total transparency.
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I mislim da će potpuna personalizacija u ovom novom svijetu zahtjevati potpunu transparentnost.
16:25
That is going to be the price.
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To će biti cijena.
16:27
If you want to have total personalization,
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Ako želite potpunu personalizaciju,
16:28
you have to be totally transparent.
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morat ćete biti u potpunosti transparentni.
16:30
Google. I can't remember my phone number, I'll just ask Google.
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Google. Ako se ne mogu sjetiti svojeg telefonskog broja, samo ću pitati Google.
16:33
We're so dependent on this that I have now gotten to the point
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Postajemo toliko ovisti o tome da sam došao do točke
16:35
where I don't even try to remember things --
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gdje više ne moram pamtiti stvari --
16:37
I'll just Google it. It's easier to do that.
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Samo ih "guglam". To je jednostavnije.
16:39
And we kind of object at first, saying, "Oh, that's awful."
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I isprva se protivimo tome, govoreći: "To je užasno".
16:42
But if we think about the dependency that we have on this other technology,
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Ali ako razmislimo koliko smo ovisni o drugim tehnologijama,
16:45
called the alphabet, and writing,
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koje zovemo abeceda, i pisanje --
16:47
we're totally dependent on it, and it's transformed culture.
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u potpunosti ovisimo o njima, i promjenile su kulturu.
16:50
We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing.
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Ne možemo se zamisliti bez abecede ili pisanja.
16:54
And so in the same way, we're going to not imagine ourselves
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I na isti način se nećemo moći zamisliti
16:57
without this other machine being there.
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bez tog drugog stroja pokraj nas.
16:59
And what is happening with this is
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I ono što se dešava s tim
17:02
some kind of AI, but it's not the AI in conscious AI,
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je neka vrsta umjetne inteligencije, ali ne svjesne
17:04
as being an expert, Larry Page told me
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-- kao što mi je kao stručnjak Larry Page rekao,
17:07
that that's what they're trying to do,
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da je to ono što pokušavaju napraviti,
17:08
and that's what they're trying to do.
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i to ono što pokušavaju napraviti.
17:10
But when six billion humans are Googling,
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Ali kada šest milijardi ljudi "gugla",
17:13
who's searching who? It goes both ways.
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tko pretražuje koga? To vrijedi obostrano.
17:15
So we are the Web, that's what this thing is.
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Dakle mi smo Mreža, to je ono što predstavlja ta stvar.
17:19
We are going to be the machine.
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Mi ćemo biti stroj.
17:21
So the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the Web and only better.
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Dakle slijedećih 5,000 dana -- to neće biti Mreža, ali samo bolja.
17:26
Just like it wasn't TV and only better.
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Isto kao što nije bio samo TV, ali nešto bolji.
17:28
The next 5,000 days, it's not just going to be the Web
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Slijedećih 5,000 dana -- neće biti samo Mreža,
17:31
but only better -- it's going to be something different.
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ali malo bolja; biti će nešto sasvim drugačije.
17:33
And I think it's going to be smarter.
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I mislim da će biti pametnije.
17:37
It'll have an intelligence in there, that's not, again, conscious.
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Imat će inteligenciju, naravno ne svjesnu.
17:41
But it'll anticipate what we're doing, in a good sense.
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Ali anticipirat će naše ponašanje, u dobrom smislu.
17:45
Secondly, it's become much more personalized.
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Kao drugo, postat će mnogo više personaliziran.
17:48
It will know us, and that's good.
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Poznat će nas, i to je dobra stvar.
17:50
And again, the price of that will be transparency.
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Ali opet, cijena toga biti će transparentnost.
17:54
And thirdly, it's going to become more ubiquitous
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Kao treće, postat će sveprisutan
17:56
in terms of filling your entire environment, and we will be in the middle of it.
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i biti svugdje u vašem okruženju, a mi ćemo biti u njegovoj sredini.
18:01
And all these devices will be portals into that.
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I svi uređaji će biti portali u njega.
18:04
So the single idea that I wanted to leave with you
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I tako, jedna ideja koju sam vam želio ostaviti
18:07
is that we have to begin to think about this as not just "the Web, only better,"
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je da moramo početi misliti o tome na način da neće biti "samo web, ali bolji",
18:13
but a new kind of stage in this development.
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već sasvim nova razina u ovom razvoju.
18:16
It looks more global. If you take this whole thing,
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Izgleda više globalno -- ako pogledate tu stvar,
18:19
it is a very big machine, very reliable machine,
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to je jako velik stroj, jako pouzdan stroj,
18:22
more reliable than its parts.
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mnogo pouzdaniji nego njegovi dijelovi.
18:24
But we can also think about it as kind of a large organism.
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Ali ga također možemo zamisliti kao neku vrst velikog organizma.
18:27
So we might respond to it more as if this was a whole system,
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Možda ćemo bolje reagirati na njega kao na cijeli sustav,
18:32
more as if this wasn't a large organism
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bolje nego kao na veliki oraganizam
18:34
that we are going to be interacting with. It's a "One."
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s kojim ćemo komunicirati. To je "Jedan".
18:38
And I don't know what else to call it, than the One.
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I neznam kako drugačije da ga zovem nego "Jedan".
18:41
We'll have a better word for it.
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Imati ćemo bolju riječ za njega.
18:42
But there's a unity of some sort that's starting to emerge.
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Ali dolazi do neke vrste jedinstva.
18:45
And again, I don't want to talk about consciousness,
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I opet, ne želim pričati o svijesti,
18:48
I want to talk about it just as if it was a little bacteria,
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želim pričat o tome kao da je bakterija,
18:50
or a volvox, which is what that organism is.
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ili papučica, što taj organizam zapravo i jest.
18:53
So, to do, action, take-away. So, here's what I would say:
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Kao sažetak rekao bih ovo:
18:59
there's only one machine, and the Web is its OS.
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postoji samo jedan stroj i njegov operacijski sustav je Mreža.
19:03
All screens look into the One. No bits will live outside the Web.
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Svi ekrani gledaju u Jednog. Bitovi neće neće živjeti van Mreže.
19:07
To share is to gain. Let the One read it.
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Dijeljenjem dobivamo. Dajmo Jednome da čita.
19:11
It's going to be machine-readable.
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Sve će biti čitljivo od strane stroja;
19:12
You want to make something that the machine can read.
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sve ćemo prilagoditi tako da stroj može čitati.
19:15
And the One is us. We are in the One.
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I Jedan smo mi -- mi smo u Jednome.
19:20
I appreciate your time.
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Hvala na vašem vremenu.
19:22
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Kelly - Digital visionaryThere may be no one better to contemplate the meaning of cultural change than Kevin Kelly, whose life story reads like a treatise on the value and impacts of technology.
Why you should listen
Kelly has been publisher of the Whole Earth Review, executive editor at Wired magazine (which he co-founded, and where he now holds the title of Senior Maverick), founder of visionary nonprofits and writer on biology, business and “cool tools.” He’s renounced all material things save his bicycle (which he then rode 3,000 miles), founded an organization (the All-Species Foundation) to catalog all life on Earth, championed projects that look 10,000 years into the future (at the Long Now Foundation), and more. He’s admired for his acute perspectives on technology and its relevance to history, biology and society. His new book, The Inevitable, just published, explores 12 technological forces that will shape our future.
Kevin Kelly | Speaker | TED.com