TED2006
Burt Rutan: The real future of space exploration
伯特 鲁坦 预见太空未来
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
2,412,936 views
在这篇热情洋溢的演讲中，传奇的宇宙飞船设计者伯特 鲁坦鞭笞美国停滞政府资助的空间探索项目，并呼吁企业家重拾这个美国国家宇航局中断的项目。
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism. Full bio
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem.
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我想从这里开始，休斯顿，我们有个问题。
00:30
We're entering a second generation of no progress
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我们已经有二十年没有进展了
00:34
in terms of human flight in space. In fact, we've regressed.
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在人类太空飞行方面。事实上，我们退步了。
00:39
We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth
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我们非常有可能失去鼓励年轻人的能力，
00:45
to go out and continue this very important thing
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让他们走出去，继续做这非常重要的事情
00:48
that we as a species have always done.
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做我们人类已经做了的事情。
00:50
And that is, instinctively we've gone out
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那就是，我们已经本能地走出去
00:53
and climbed over difficult places, went to more hostile places,
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翻过困难之地，去往更加困难的地方，
00:59
and found out later, maybe to our surprise, that that's the reason we survived.
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之后发现，也许会令我们吃惊，这些就是我们生存下来的理由。
01:05
And I feel very strongly
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我强烈的感觉到
01:07
that it's not good enough for us to have generations of kids
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这不太好，如果我们世代的后辈
01:11
that think that it's OK to look forward to a better version
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只想着要一个更好
01:15
of a cell phone with a video in it.
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带录像的手机。
01:18
They need to look forward to exploration; they need to look forward to colonization;
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他们要渴望探索，他们要渴望征服，
01:22
they need to look forward to breakthroughs.
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他们要渴望突破。他们需要这些。
01:26
We need to inspire them, because they need to lead us
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我们要鼓励他们，因为他们将来要领导我们
01:30
and help us survive in the future.
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帮助我们生存。
01:33
I'm particularly troubled that what NASA's doing right now with this new Bush doctrine
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我特别担心，美国国家宇航局现在根据新的布什政府的原则所做的
01:39
to -- for this next decade and a half -- oh shoot, I screwed up.
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--因为在未来十五年--哦 天呢，我错了。
01:45
We have real specific instructions here not to talk about politics.
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在这里我们有非常明确的规定，不可以谈政治。
01:50
(Laughter)
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（笑）
01:51
What we're looking forward to is --
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我们所期待的是--
01:54
(Applause)
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（掌声）
01:55
what we're looking forward to
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我们所期待的
01:58
is not only the inspiration of our children,
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是不止鼓励我们的孩子
02:01
but the current plan right now is not really even allowing
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但我们现行的政策甚至不允许
02:06
the most creative people in this country -- the Boeing's and Lockheed's
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这个国家最有创造力的--波音航空公司和洛克希德导弹与航天公司的
02:10
space engineers -- to go out and take risks and try new stuff.
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航天工程师走出去，承担风险，尝试新装置。
02:16
We're going to go back to the moon ... 50 years later?
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我们将要回到月球--50年以后--
02:22
And we're going to do it very specifically planned to not learn anything new.
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我们正准备仔细地计划这件事情，学习任何新知识。
02:28
I'm really troubled by that. But anyway that's --
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我因此非常担心。但无论如何，那是--
02:32
the basis of the thing that I want to share with you today, though,
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我今天想和你们分享的事情的基础，尽管如此
02:36
is that right back to where we inspire people
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就回到了我们要鼓励人们
02:40
who will be our great leaders later.
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鼓励日后会成为我们伟大领导的人们。
02:42
That's the theme of my next 15 minutes here.
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那是我在这里接下来15分钟的主题。
02:46
And I think that the inspiration begins when you're very young:
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我认为在你们小的时候就开始被鼓励：
02:50
three-year-olds, up to 12-, 14-year-olds.
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从三岁的婴儿直到12，14岁的小孩。
02:54
What they look at is the most important thing.
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我们--最重要的事情是他们看到了什么。
02:58
Let's take a snapshot at aviation.
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让我们迅速回览一下航空工业。
03:01
And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period
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曾有四年短暂的美好时期
03:04
when marvelous things happened.
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那时发生了许多奇迹。
03:07
It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said,
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那段时期开始于1908年，当怀特兄弟在巴黎飞行，每个人都说，
03:11
"Ooh, hey, I can do that." There's only a few people that have flown
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“哦，嘿！我能做这个。”只有极少的人曾飞过
03:15
in early 1908. In four years, 39 countries had hundreds of airplanes,
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在1908年初。四年里，39个国家有了上百架飞机，
03:20
thousand of pilots. Airplanes were invented by natural selection.
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上千名飞行员。飞机通过自然选择被发明了出来。
03:24
Now you can say that intelligent design designs our airplanes of today,
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现在你可以说聪明的设计设计了我们今天的飞机，
03:28
but there was no intelligent design really designing those early airplanes.
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但没有聪明的设计真正设计了那些早期的飞机。
03:32
There were probably at least 30,000 different things tried,
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可能至少有3000种不同的尝试，
03:37
and when they crash and kill the pilot, don't try that again.
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如果飞行器坠毁，飞行员身亡，就不再尝试此种飞行器。
03:41
The ones that flew and landed OK
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能够飞行和着陆的就是好的，
03:44
because there were no trained pilots
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因为没有训练有素的飞行员
03:45
who had good flying qualities by definition.
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没有真正有好的飞行素质之人。
03:49
So we, by making a whole bunch of attempts, thousands of attempts,
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所以我们，通过做一大堆尝试，几千次的尝试，
03:54
in that four-year time period, we invented the concepts
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在那四年里，我们发明了
03:57
of the airplanes that we fly today. And that's why they're so safe,
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我们今天飞行所用的飞机。这就是为什么我们这么安全，
04:00
as we gave it a lot of chance to find what's good.
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因为我们给了自己很多机会去发现什么是好的。
04:04
That has not happened at all in space flying.
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在宇宙飞行领域，我们没有给自己一点儿机会。
04:06
There's only been two concepts tried -- two by the U.S. and one by the Russians.
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只尝试了两个想法 -- 美国尝试了两个，俄罗斯尝试了一个。
04:10
Well, who was inspired during that time period?
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那么，在这段时期，谁被鼓舞了？
04:12
Aviation Week asked me to make a list of who I thought
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《航空周刊》让我列一个表，列出我认为
04:15
were the movers and shakers of the first 100 years of aviation.
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这一百年的航空事业的推动者。
04:18
And I wrote them down and I found out later that every one of them
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我把他们写了出来，之后发现他们每一个人
04:22
was a little kid in that wonderful renaissance of aviation.
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在航天事业的奇妙复兴之时都是小孩子。
04:29
Well, what happened when I was a little kid was -- some pretty heavy stuff too.
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那么，当我小的时候发生了什么-- 也是非常重大的事件。
04:33
The jet age started: the missile age started. Von Braun was on there
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喷气式飞机时代开始了，导弹时代开始了。冯 布劳恩在那里
04:38
showing how to go to Mars -- and this was before Sputnik.
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展示如何登上火星 -- 这些事早于人造地球卫星的制造。
04:40
And this was at a time when Mars was a hell of a lot more interesting
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那时火星是一个非常令人感兴趣的地方
04:44
than it is now. We thought there'd be animals there;
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比现在有趣得多。我们曾以为那里有动物存在，
04:46
we knew there were plants there; the colors change, right?
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我们知道那里有植物，有色彩变幻，不是吗？
04:50
But, you know, NASA screwed that up because they've sent these robots
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但是，你知道，美国国家宇航局搞砸了这事情，因为他们派遣了这些机器人
04:53
and they've landed it only in the deserts.
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而他们只着陆在了沙漠里。
04:56
(Laughter)
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（笑）
05:00
If you look at what happened -- this little black line is as fast as man ever flew,
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如果你看一看发生了什么 -- 这条小黑线和人们曾经飞行的速度一样快，
05:07
and the red line is top-of-the-line military fighters
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这条红线代表军队里速度最快的飞行员
05:10
and the blue line is commercial air transport.
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蓝色代表商业飞机运输。
05:13
You notice here's a big jump when I was a little kid --
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你注意这里有一个大的跳跃。当我还是一个小孩时--
05:15
and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage
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我认为曾有些事给予我勇气
05:19
to go out and try something that other people weren't having the courage to try.
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走出去，尝试其他人没勇气去做的事。
05:24
Well, what did I do when I was a kid?
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那么，我小时候做了什么？
05:26
I didn't do the hotrods and the girls and the dancing
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我那时没有玩车，交女朋友，没有跳舞。
05:29
and, well, we didn't have drugs in those days. But I did competition model airplanes.
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并且，那时我也没有吸毒。我做了些比赛用的飞机模型。
05:34
I spent about seven years during the Vietnam War
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越战时，我花了七年时间
05:36
flight-testing airplanes for the Air Force.
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为空军做飞机飞行测试。
05:39
And then I went in and I had a lot of fun building airplanes
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后来，我涉猎飞机制造，并从中的到甚多乐趣
05:41
that people could build in their garages.
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那些飞机是人们可以在自家车库里制造的。
05:44
And some 3,000 of those are flying. Of course, one of them
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这些里面有约有3000架正在飞行。当然，它们中的一架
05:47
is around the world Voyager. I founded another company in '82,
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是可以环游世界的航行者号（Voyager）。我在1982年建立了另一家公司，
05:51
which is my company now.
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就是我现在的公司。
05:53
And we have developed more than one new type of airplane every year since 1982.
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从1982年起，我们公司每年研发不只一种飞机，
06:00
And there's a lot of them that I actually can't show you on this chart.
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有许多飞机我无法在这张图上介绍给大家。
06:04
The most impressive airplane ever, I believe, was designed
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最令人印象深刻的飞机，我相信，是那架
06:08
only a dozen years after the first operational jet.
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在第一架喷气式飞机制造出后，仅过了十二年就设计出的飞机。
06:12
Stayed in service till it was too rusty to fly, taken out of service.
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它一直在飞行，直到锈迹斑斑才不再服役。
06:16
We retreated in '98 back to something that was developed in '56. What?
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我们1998年的研发水平倒退至1956年。什么？
06:23
The most impressive spaceship ever, I believe,
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史上最震撼人心的宇宙飞船，我相信，
06:26
was a Grumman Lunar Lander. It was a -- you know, it landed on the moon,
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是格鲁曼公司（Grumman）所做的登月艇。它是一艘--你知道，它在月球着陆，
06:31
take off of the moon, didn't need any maintenance guys --
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从月球起飞，无需人员维护--
06:33
that's kind of cool.
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那有点儿酷。
06:35
We've lost that capability. We abandoned it in '72.
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我们已经丧失了能力。我们在1972年放弃了它。
06:38
This thing was designed three years after Gagarin first flew in space in 1961.
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这架飞船在前苏联宇航员加加林（Gagarin）1961年首次宇宙飞行的三年后被设计出来。
06:43
Three years, and we can't do that now. Crazy.
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三年，而我们现在做不到了。
06:48
Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow,
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疯狂。简短地谈一下发明创造的周期，周期发展时
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have a lot of activity; they die out when they're replaced by something else.
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会衍生许多活动，当这些活动被其他活动取代，此周期就灭亡了。
06:57
These things tend to happen every 25 years.
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这样的周期每25年出现一次。
07:00
40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement
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持续40年的时间，有些周期相互交叠。你可以将此观点
07:04
on all kinds of different technologies. The interesting thing --
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放至不同的科技。这有趣的事情--
07:07
by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel
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顺便一提，这里的速度，不好意思，高速旅行
07:10
is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here.
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是这些发明创造周期的标题。这里没有一个。
07:16
These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958.
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这两架飞机与1958年制造的DC8速度相同。
07:24
Here's the biggie, and that is, you don't have innovation cycles
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这是件大事，那就是，你没有发明创造周期
07:27
if the government develops and the government uses it.
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如果政府研发并应用其研发成果。
07:30
You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net.
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你知道，一个好的例子，当然就是DARPA网。
07:34
Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS.
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电脑首先应用于炮兵部队，然后是美国国税局（IRS）。
07:37
But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity,
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但当我们得到它时，现在你拥有所有活动的级别，
07:40
all the benefit from it. Private sector has to do it.
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所有由它而来的利益。私营部门不得不这么做。
07:44
Keep that in mind. I put down innovation --
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记住它。我提出发明创新--
07:47
I've looked for innovation cycles in space; I found none.
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我期待看到宇宙空间的发明创新周期，但我什么也没发现。
07:50
The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space,
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在最初的那一年，从加加林和
07:54
and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned
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和几周后阿兰 谢巴德进入太空开始，世界上有五次人造
07:57
space flights in the world -- the very first year.
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飞船航行；在最初的那一年。
08:00
In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed.
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2003年，美国的送入太空的每个人都牺牲了。
08:09
There were only three or four flights in 2003.
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2003年只有三或四次飞行。
08:11
In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights
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2004年，只有两次飞行：两次俄罗斯联盟号飞船飞行
08:18
to the international manned station. And I had to fly three in Mojave
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至国际空间站。而我不得不在莫哈维沙漠起飞三次
08:22
with my little group of a couple dozen people
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和我的两队人马一起
08:24
in order to get to a total of five,
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为了达到5次飞行的总数，
08:26
which was the number the same year back in 1961.
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这是1961年的数字。
08:31
There is no growth. There's no activity. There's no nothing.
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没有进步。没有活动。什么也没有。
08:36
This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne.
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这张照片取自一号太空飞船。
08:39
This is a picture here taken from orbit.
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这张照片取自轨道。
08:41
Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that.
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我们的目标是拍下这些照片，这样大家就能看到它，真正地喜欢它。
08:47
We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough --
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我们知道如何为亚轨道飞行拍照片，非常安全地做这件事--
08:51
at least as safe as the early airlines -- so that can be done.
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至少像早期的航线一样安全--所以可以做。
08:55
And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage
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我认为我想了点儿为什么我们有勇气
09:00
to go out and try that as a small company.
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尝试飞到太空，我们是个小公司。
09:07
Well, first of all, what's going to happen next?
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那么，首先，接下来会发生什么？
09:10
The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players.
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第一产业将会数量巨大，参与者众多。
09:14
There's another one announced just last week.
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上周有另一个公司宣布它们可以。
09:17
And it will be sub-orbital. And the reason it has to be sub-orbital
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这次飞行将会是亚轨道。亚轨道的原因
09:23
is, there is not solutions for adequate safety
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是，没有保证充分安全的方法
09:26
to fly the public to orbit. The governments have been doing this --
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可以带领大众飞至轨道。一些国家的政府正在这样做--
09:31
three governments have been doing this for 45 years,
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有三个政府已经这么做了45年，
09:33
and still four percent of the people that have left the atmosphere have died.
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仍然有百分之四十的人命丧太空。
09:37
That's -- You don't want to run a business with that kind of a safety record.
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那是--你不想经营一项有这种安全记录的事业。
09:42
It'll be very high volume; we think 100,000 people will fly by 2020.
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它的量会变得很大；我们认为到2020年将会有100000人进行太空飞行。
09:48
I can't tell you when this will start,
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我不能告诉你太空旅行何时开始，
09:50
because I don't want my competition to know my schedule.
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因为我不想我的竞争者知道我的计划。
09:53
But I think once it does, we will find solutions,
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但我认为一旦开始，我们将会找到解决方案。
09:58
and very quickly, you'll see those resort hotels in orbit.
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并且很快，你将在轨道上看到旅游旅店。
10:01
And that real easy thing to do, which is a swing around the moon
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去月球上绕一圈是非常容易做到的事情，
10:04
so you have this cool view. And that will be really cool.
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因为你能看到非常酷的景象。那确实会很酷。
10:08
Because the moon doesn't have an atmosphere --
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因为月球没有大气层环绕--
10:10
you can do an elliptical orbit and miss it by 10 feet if you want.
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如果你愿意，你可以绕误差在10英尺的椭圆形轨道飞行。
10:13
Oh, it's going to be so much fun.
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噢，那会非常有趣。
10:15
(Laughter)
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（笑）
10:17
OK. My critics say, "Hey, Rutan's just spending
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好。批评我的人说，“嘿，鲁坦，只是花着”
10:21
a lot of these billionaires' money for joyrides for billionaires.
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这些亿万富翁的钱，为其创造游览飞行。
10:26
What's this? This is not a transportation system; it's just for fun."
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这是什么？这不是运输系统，它只是用于消遣。“
10:31
And I used to be bothered by that, and then I got to thinking,
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我过去常常因此而困扰，后来我开始思考。
10:34
well, wait a minute. I bought my first Apple computer in 1978
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那么，等一下。我带来了我的第一台1978年的苹果电脑
10:39
and I bought it because I could say, "I got a computer at my house and you don't.
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我把它带来因为我可以说，“我在家里有一台电脑，而你没有。
10:45
'What do you use it for?' Come over. It does Frogger." OK.
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‘用它做什么？’过来。它能玩青蛙过街。”好吧。
10:50
(Laughter)
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（笑）
10:51
Not the bank's computer or Lockheed's computer,
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不是银行的电脑或洛克希德导弹与航天公司的电脑，
10:54
but the home computer was for games.
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家用电脑是用于游戏的。
10:57
For a whole decade it was for fun -- we didn't even know what it was for.
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对于整整一代来说，它是用于消遣--我们甚至不知道它是用于做什么的。
11:01
But what happened, the fact that we had this big industry,
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但是发生了什么，我们有了这个巨大的产业，
11:05
big development, big improvement and capability and so on,
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巨大的发展，巨大的进步和能力等等，
11:09
and they get out there in enough homes -- we were ripe for a new invention.
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他们被许多的家庭所知，我们的新发明变得成熟。
11:14
And the inventor is in this audience.
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而发明者就坐在观众席里。
11:16
Al Gore invented the Internet and because of that,
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阿尔 戈尔发明了互联网，因此，
11:20
something that we used for a whole year -- excuse me --
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互联网--我们用了一整年--不好意思，
11:23
a whole decade for fun, became everything -- our commerce, our research,
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整整一代用其消遣，变成了每一件事情--我们的商业，我们的研究，
11:29
our communication and, if we let the Google guys
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我们的交流而且，如果我们让谷歌的人
11:33
think for another couple weekends, we can add a dozen more things to the list. (Laughter)
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再想连个周末，我们能在此表上再加上许多条。
11:37
And it won't be very long before you won't be able to convince kids
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要不了多久，孩子们就不会相信
11:40
that we didn't always have computers in our homes.
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我们的家里电脑曾经并不普及。
11:45
So fun is defendable.
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所以乐趣是应该被保护的。
11:48
OK, I want to show you kind of a busy chart,
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好，我想展示给大家一张复杂的表，
11:53
but in it is my prediction with what's going to happen.
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里面是我对未来会发生什么的预言。
11:56
And in it also brings up another point, right here.
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里面也提出了另一个观点，就在这。
12:00
There's a group of people that have come forward --
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有一群人已经前进--
12:04
and you don't know all of them -- but the ones that have come forward
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你不认识他们所有人--但那些已经前进的人
12:07
were inspired as young children, this little three- to 15-year-old age,
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像3至15岁的年轻孩子一样被我们鼓励
12:14
by us going to orbit and going to the moon here,
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他们将飞向轨道，飞向月亮，
12:17
right in this time period.
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就在这个时期。
12:19
Paul Allen, Elan Musk, Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, the Ansari family,
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保罗 艾伦，艾伦 莫斯克，理查德 布兰森，杰夫 贝佐斯，安萨里家族，
12:29
which is now funding the Russians' sub-orbital thing,
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他们现在资助俄罗斯的亚轨道航行，
12:34
Bob Bigelow, a private space station, and Carmack.
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鲍勃 比洛奇，一个私人空间站，和卡马克。
12:38
These people are taking money and putting it in an interesting area,
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这些人把钱投入一个有趣的领域，
12:44
and I think it's a lot better than they put it in an area
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而我认为这笔把钱
12:47
of a better cell phone or something -- but they're putting it in very --
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花在买一个更好的手机或其他事情上要好得多--但他们把钱投入到非常[模糊的]
12:51
areas and this will lead us into this kind of capability,
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区域，而这将会引导我们获得这种能力，
12:55
and it will lead us into the next really big thing
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这将会引导我们进入下一个真正大的事件
12:57
and it will allow us to explore. And I think eventually
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这会让我们探索。而我认为最终
13:01
it will allow us to colonize and to keep us from going extinct.
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这会让我们能够得到地盘，使我们远离灭亡。
13:05
They were inspired by big progress. But look at the progress that's going on after that.
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他们被巨大的进程所鼓舞。但看看那之后的进程。
13:11
There were a couple of examples here.
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这里有两个例子。
13:13
The military fighters had a -- highest-performance military airplane
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军事战斗机有一架最高性能的空军飞机
13:17
was the SR71. It went a whole life cycle, got too rusty to fly,
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是SR71.它走过了整个生命周期，直到锈迹斑斑才停滞飞行，
13:22
and was taken out of service. The Concorde doubled the speed for airline travel.
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退出服役。协和式飞机使空军旅行速度翻倍。
13:27
It went a whole life cycle without competition,
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它飞过了整个生命周期，没有遇到任何竞争；
13:30
took out of service. And we're stuck back here
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然后停飞。而我们就此卡住
13:33
with the same kind of capability for military fighters
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拥有这样的军事战斗机
13:36
and commercial airline travel that we had back in the late '50s.
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和商业航空旅行，我们回到了50年代末期。
13:40
But something is out there to inspire our kids now.
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但现在出现了一些事情去鼓舞我们的孩子。
13:44
And I'm talking about if you've got a baby now,
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我是说如果你现在有一个婴儿，
13:46
or if you've got a 10-year-old now.
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或你有一个10岁的孩子。
13:47
What's out there is there's something really interesting going to happen here.
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外面正在发生一些非常有趣的事情。
13:53
Relatively soon, you'll be able to buy a ticket
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不就，你就能买张票
13:55
and fly higher and faster than the highest-performance
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然后飞地比最高性能的军事作战飞机更高、更快。
14:00
military operational airplane. It's never happened before.
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这在之前从未发生过。
14:04
The fact that they have stuck here with this kind of performance
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事实是它们拥有着这种性能的飞行器却止步不前，
14:09
has been, well, you know, you win the war in 12 minutes;
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那么，你知道，你在12分钟之内赢得了这场战争，
14:12
why do you need something better?
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为什么你需要更好的东西？
14:13
But I think when you guys start buying tickets and flying
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但我认为当你们开始卖票，开始
14:16
sub-orbital flights to space, very soon -- wait a minute,
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亚轨道飞行，通往太空，很快--稍等，
14:21
what's happening here, we'll have military fighters
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这里发生了什么，我们将拥有军事战斗机
14:24
with sub-orbital capability, and I think very soon this.
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这些战斗机拥有沿亚轨道飞行的能力，我认为这很快就会发生。
14:27
But the interesting thing about it is the commercial guys are going to go first.
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但有趣的是，商业飞行器现具有这种能力。
14:31
OK, I look forward to a new "capitalist's space race," let's call it.
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好，我期待一场新的资本主义太空竞赛，让我们呼唤它。
14:37
You remember the space race in the '60s was for national prestige,
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你们还记得60年代的太空竞赛是为了国家的声誉，
14:41
because we lost the first two milestones.
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因为我们丢失了最初的两个里程碑。
14:44
We didn't lose them technically. The fact that we had the hardware
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我们不是因为技术而丢失了它们。事实是我们有硬件
14:48
to put something in orbit when we let Von Braun fly it --
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当我们让冯 布劳恩飞行时，我们能够把一些东西送上轨道，
14:53
you can argue that's not a technical loss.
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你可以认为那不是科技的失败。
14:55
Sputnik wasn't a technical loss, but it was a prestige loss.
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史波尼克人造卫星不是科技上的失败，但它有损声誉。
14:59
America -- the world saw America as not being the leader in technology,
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美国--世界看到美国不是科技的主宰，
15:06
and that was a very strong thing.
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那时非常重要的事情。
15:08
And then we flew Alan Shepherd weeks after Gagarin,
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然后我们在加加林之后几周让艾伦 谢巴德太空飞行，
15:13
not months or decades, or whatever. So we had the capability.
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不是在几个月或几十年之后，或不管多长时间。所以，我们有能力。
15:18
But America lost. We lost. And because of that, we made a big jump to recover it.
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但美国失败了，我们失败了。因为那，我们向前跳跃一大步以弥补它。
15:27
Well, again, what's interesting here is we've lost
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那么，再次，有趣的是我们已经输给了
15:30
to the Russians on the first couple of milestones already.
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俄国在前两次里程碑前。
15:33
You cannot buy a ticket commercially to fly into space in America --
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在美国，你不能买一张票飞去太空--
15:38
can't do it. You can buy it in Russia.
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不能这么做。你可以在俄国买到票。
15:43
You can fly with Russian hardware. This is available
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你乘坐俄国的飞行器飞行。这是可以的
15:46
because a Russian space program is starving,
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因为苏联的太空计划缺乏资金。
15:49
and it's nice for them to get 20 million here and there to take one of the seats.
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一个座位可以得到两千万美金，对他们来说很不错。
15:54
It's commercial. It can be defined as space tourism. They are also offering a trip
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它是商业的。它可被定义为空间旅行。他们也能提供
16:01
to go on this whip around the moon, like Apollo 8 was done.
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绕月旅行，像阿波罗八号飞船所做的。
16:05
100 million bucks -- hey, I can go to the moon.
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一亿美金--嘿，我能去月球。
16:08
But, you know, would you have thought back in the '60s,
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但是，你知道，退回到60年代，你会想到这个吗,
16:11
when the space race was going on,
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那时太空竞赛正在继续，
16:13
that the first commercial capitalist-like thing to do
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第一个商业资本家似的事情，像是
16:19
to buy a ticket to go to the moon would be in Russian hardware?
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买张票就可以去月球，这会是苏联的硬件设施吗？
16:23
And would you have thought, would the Russians have thought,
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那时你会想到吗，苏联人会想到吗，
16:26
that when they first go to the moon in their developed hardware,
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当他们第一次乘坐他们开发的飞船去月球时，
16:30
the guys inside won't be Russians? Maybe it'll probably be a Japanese
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里面的乘客不是俄国人？也许，会是日本的
16:34
or an American billionaire? Well, that's weird: you know, it really is.
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或是美国的亿万富翁？好，有点儿奇怪，你知道，但确实如此。
16:38
But anyway, I think we need to beat them again.
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但无论如何，我想我们需要再次打击他们。
16:42
I think what we'll do is we'll see a successful, very successful,
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我认为我们要做的会让我们看到成功的，非常成功的
16:49
private space flight industry. Whether we're first or not really doesn't matter.
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私人太空飞船行业。无论我们是否是第一个真的并不重要。
16:54
The Russians actually flew a supersonic transport before the Concorde.
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苏联人实际上在飞协和式飞机前就飞过超音速飞机。
17:00
And then they flew a few cargo flights, and took it out of service.
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他们飞过一些货物航班，然后退役。
17:04
I think you kind of see the same kind of parallel
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我想你们见到过相同的平行
17:07
when the commercial stuff is offered.
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当提供商业活动时。
17:11
OK, we'll talk just a little bit about commercial development for human space flight.
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好，我们就谈论一点儿人类太空飞行的商业发展。
17:15
This little thing says here: five times
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这张小投影片说飞了五次
17:17
what NASA's doing by 2020. I want to tell you, already
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这是美国国家宇航局到2020年做的。我想要告诉你，已经
17:25
there's about 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion
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有大约十点五亿至十点七亿
17:29
investment in private space flight that is not government at all --
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投资用于私人太空飞行，这些投资完全不是来自政府；
17:35
already, worldwide. If you read -- if you Google it,
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而是来自全世界。如果你读到它--如果你搜索一下它，
17:40
you'll find about half of that money, but there's twice of that
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你会发现一半的资金，但有两倍
17:43
being committed out there -- not spent yet, but being committed
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正准备投入那里的资金--还没有花，但正准备投入
17:47
and planned for the next few years. Hey, that's pretty big.
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计划到未来几年。嘿，那数目非常大。
17:50
I'm predicting, though, as profitable as this industry is going to be --
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我正在预测，尽管，这个工业的收益会很客观
17:55
and it certainly is profitable when you fly people at 200,000 dollars
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并且它确实是收益的，当你花200000美元让你的朋友乘飞船旅行时
17:59
on something that you can actually operate at a tenth of that cost,
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事实上你可以只花费十分之一，
18:03
or less -- this is going to be very profitable.
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或更少--这收入会非常客观。
18:07
I predict, also, that the investment that will flow into this
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我还预测，会注入此项事业的投资
18:10
will be somewhere around half of what the U.S. taxpayer
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将会有相当于美国税收的一半之多
18:14
spends for NASA's manned spacecraft work.
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这些投资会用于美国国家宇航局的人造宇宙飞船工作。
18:18
And every dollar that flows into that will be spent more efficiently
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注入此项事业的每一美元都会被更有效地利用
18:23
by a factor of 10 to 15. And what that means is before we know it,
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大约相差10到15。这意味着在我们之前就知道，
18:31
the progress in human space flight, with no taxpayer dollars,
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人类太空飞行的进程，没有用纳税人的钱，
18:38
will be at a level of about five times as much
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将会比现在美国国家宇航局的预算多五倍
18:44
as the current NASA budgets for human space flight.
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该预算用于人类太空飞行。
18:49
And that is because it's us. It's private industry.
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那是因为是我们。它是私人的行业。
18:57
You should never depend on the government to do this sort of stuff --
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你从不应该依赖政府去做这种事业--
19:03
and we've done it for a long time. The NACA, before NASA,
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而且我们已经从事了很长时间。美国航空资讯委员会，在美国国家宇航局之前，
19:06
never developed an airliner and never ran an airline.
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从未开发过客机，而且从未运营过航空线。
19:10
But NASA is developing the space liner, always has,
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但美国国家宇航局正在开发太空货机，总是拥有
19:14
and runs the only space line, OK. And we've shied away from it
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并且运营这唯一的太空航线，好吧。我们避开它
19:21
because we're afraid of it. But starting back in June of 2004,
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因为我们害怕它。但是从2004年六月开始，
19:27
when I showed that a little group out there actually can do it,
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当我展示在外太空的一个小组实际上能做到时，
19:32
can get a start with it, everything changed after that time.
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我们能够从它开始，从现在起改变每一件事情。
19:35
OK, thank you very much.
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好吧，非常感谢大家。
19:37
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineerIn 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism.
Why you should listen
Burt Rutan is widely regarded as one of the world's most important industrial designers, and his prolific contributions to air- and spacecraft design have driven the industry forward for decades. His two companies, Rutan Aircraft Factory and Scaled Composites, have developed and flight-tested more new types of aircraft than the rest of the US industry combined. He has himself designed hundreds of aircraft, including the famous Voyager, which his brother piloted on a record-breaking nine-day nonstop flight around the world.
Rutan might also be the person to make low-cost space tourism a reality: He's one of the major players promoting entrepreneurial approaches to space exploration, and his collaboration with Virgin Galactic is the most promising of these efforts. SpaceShipTwo, a collaboration between Richard Branson and Rutan completed its first "captive carry" in March of 2010, marking the beginning of the era of commercial space exploration.
Ever the maverick, Rutan is known for both his bold proclamations and his criticism of the aerospace industry. Witness the opening line of his presentation at TED2006: "Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space."
Burt Rutan | Speaker | TED.com