TED2006
Burt Rutan: The real future of space exploration
伯特●魯坦(Burt Rutan)眼中太空的未來
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
2,412,936 views
在這個充滿熱情的演講，傳奇的太空船設計家伯特●魯坦(Burt Rutan)嚴詞指責美國政府成立的太空計劃遲滯不前，同時鼓勵企業家們繼續美國太空總署(NASA)所停止的計畫。
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism. Full bio
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I want to start off by saying, Houston, we have a problem.
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我要用一句話來開場「休士頓～我們有麻煩了」
00:30
We're entering a second generation of no progress
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我們已經沒有進展長達二十年了
00:34
in terms of human flight in space. In fact, we've regressed.
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針對人類的太空飛行而言，事實上我們倒退了
00:39
We stand a very big chance of losing our ability to inspire our youth
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我們正承受著遺失去啟發年輕人改變的能力
00:45
to go out and continue this very important thing
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去做和延續這些重要的事情
00:48
that we as a species have always done.
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而這是人類一直在進行的事情
00:50
And that is, instinctively we've gone out
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而這正是我們逐漸消失的本能
00:53
and climbed over difficult places, went to more hostile places,
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像是登上困難的高峰、到達人煙罕至的地方
00:59
and found out later, maybe to our surprise, that that's the reason we survived.
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後來不經意的察覺，這些是為什麼我們存活的原因
01:05
And I feel very strongly
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我非常強烈的感覺
01:07
that it's not good enough for us to have generations of kids
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這對我們的下一代來說是非常的不足
01:11
that think that it's OK to look forward to a better version
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對於期待著進步是一件好事
01:15
of a cell phone with a video in it.
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像手機可以有影像的功能
01:18
They need to look forward to exploration; they need to look forward to colonization;
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他們必須要去探索，必須要往前去開拓
01:22
they need to look forward to breakthroughs.
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他們必須往前去突破，他們必須這麼做
01:26
We need to inspire them, because they need to lead us
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我們應該要去啟發他們，因為將來的世界將由他們主導
01:30
and help us survive in the future.
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來幫助我們在未來存活
01:33
I'm particularly troubled that what NASA's doing right now with this new Bush doctrine
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我特別感到困擾的就是美國太空總署(NASA)現在執行的布希政策
01:39
to -- for this next decade and a half -- oh shoot, I screwed up.
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在未來的十～十五年 -- 哎呀～我搞砸了
01:45
We have real specific instructions here not to talk about politics.
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我們這裏有幾個特別指示，不可以談到政治
01:50
(Laughter)
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笑聲
01:51
What we're looking forward to is --
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我們真正希望前往的未來是 --
01:54
(Applause)
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掌聲
01:55
what we're looking forward to
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我們所要的未來是
01:58
is not only the inspiration of our children,
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不只是啟發我們的孩子
02:01
but the current plan right now is not really even allowing
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不過現在的規劃甚至不允許我們這麼做
02:06
the most creative people in this country -- the Boeing's and Lockheed's
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國內最具有創意的那群人 -- 波音公司與洛克希德公司
02:10
space engineers -- to go out and take risks and try new stuff.
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太空工程師們去冒險、嘗試新的東西
02:16
We're going to go back to the moon ... 50 years later?
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我們將回到月球 -- 五十年後
02:22
And we're going to do it very specifically planned to not learn anything new.
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而且我們非常確切的計畫著不學習任何新事物
02:28
I'm really troubled by that. But anyway that's --
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我非常的被這樣的狀況所困擾，不管怎麼說
02:32
the basis of the thing that I want to share with you today, though,
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這基本的事情跟我今天所要與各位分享的有關
02:36
is that right back to where we inspire people
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就是回到該怎麼去啟發人們
02:40
who will be our great leaders later.
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那些將來會成為我們偉大領袖的人
02:42
That's the theme of my next 15 minutes here.
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那正是在未來的十五分鐘，我所要講的主題
02:46
And I think that the inspiration begins when you're very young:
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而我想這些啟發開始於各位年紀非常小的時候
02:50
three-year-olds, up to 12-, 14-year-olds.
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三歲直到12～14歲
02:54
What they look at is the most important thing.
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什麼是我們 -- 什麼是他們認為最重要的事
02:58
Let's take a snapshot at aviation.
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讓我們回顧一下飛行的歷史
03:01
And there was a wonderful little short four-year time period
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有一個美妙的四年階段
03:04
when marvelous things happened.
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當不可思議的事件發生
03:07
It started in 1908, when the Wright brothers flew in Paris, and everybody said,
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一切開始於1908年，當萊特兄弟飛到巴黎
03:11
"Ooh, hey, I can do that." There's only a few people that have flown
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很多人說：「喔～嘿！我也可以這樣做」，當時只有少數一些人真的飛行過
03:15
in early 1908. In four years, 39 countries had hundreds of airplanes,
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在1908年早期，過了四年之後，有39個國家擁有上百架的飛機
03:20
thousand of pilots. Airplanes were invented by natural selection.
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上千位的飛行員，多種飛機被一般大眾設計出來
03:24
Now you can say that intelligent design designs our airplanes of today,
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現在各位可以說今天的飛機都是由專精的設計師所為
03:28
but there was no intelligent design really designing those early airplanes.
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但是沒有一個專精的設計師去設計那些早期的飛機
03:32
There were probably at least 30,000 different things tried,
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可能有三萬件不同的事件被嘗試出來
03:37
and when they crash and kill the pilot, don't try that again.
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而當他們的飛機墜毀、飛行員喪生，就停止再用那個東西
03:41
The ones that flew and landed OK
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如果有一架飛機可以飛行、降落就是OK的
03:44
because there were no trained pilots
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因為當時也沒有受過訓練的飛行員
03:45
who had good flying qualities by definition.
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可以被定位為擁有良好的飛行的技術
03:49
So we, by making a whole bunch of attempts, thousands of attempts,
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因此我們藉由千百次的嘗試
03:54
in that four-year time period, we invented the concepts
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在四年的時間裡，我們發明了飛機概念
03:57
of the airplanes that we fly today. And that's why they're so safe,
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就是我們現在飛機，這也說明了他為什麼這麼的安全
04:00
as we gave it a lot of chance to find what's good.
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因此我們一直不斷的修改，以尋找出什麼事最好的
04:04
That has not happened at all in space flying.
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太空飛行領域上還沒看到這樣的嘗試
04:06
There's only been two concepts tried -- two by the U.S. and one by the Russians.
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只有兩個概念被嘗試 -- 美國做了兩個、前蘇聯做了一個
04:10
Well, who was inspired during that time period?
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那麼～什麼人在那時被啟發了呢？
04:12
Aviation Week asked me to make a list of who I thought
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飛行週刊雜誌請我列出一個表
04:15
were the movers and shakers of the first 100 years of aviation.
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在100年的飛行歷史中舉足輕重的事件
04:18
And I wrote them down and I found out later that every one of them
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我把心目中的列表，後來我發現它們每一個
04:22
was a little kid in that wonderful renaissance of aviation.
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都有點像是飛行史上的文藝復興
04:29
Well, what happened when I was a little kid was -- some pretty heavy stuff too.
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當我還是個小孩的時候有件非常重要的事情發生了
04:33
The jet age started: the missile age started. Von Braun was on there
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噴射機時代的來臨，飛彈時代的來臨，馮布朗(Von Braun)在那時代
04:38
showing how to go to Mars -- and this was before Sputnik.
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展示出怎麼樣可以去火星 -- 而當時史波尼克衛星(Sputnik)尚未發明
04:40
And this was at a time when Mars was a hell of a lot more interesting
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跟現在相比火星在當時是多麼的引起大家的興趣
04:44
than it is now. We thought there'd be animals there;
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我們當時還相信那兒有生物
04:46
we knew there were plants there; the colors change, right?
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我們知道那兒有植物，因為顏色會改變。對吧？
04:50
But, you know, NASA screwed that up because they've sent these robots
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不過你知道太空總署(NASA)搞砸了，因為他們現在送去的機器人
04:53
and they've landed it only in the deserts.
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而他們卻只降落在沙漠地區
04:56
(Laughter)
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笑聲
05:00
If you look at what happened -- this little black line is as fast as man ever flew,
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如果你注意著過去發生的事情 -- 這條小黑線是過去飛得最快的人
05:07
and the red line is top-of-the-line military fighters
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這條紅線是軍隊裡飛得最快的戰鬥飛行員
05:10
and the blue line is commercial air transport.
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藍線代表了商業飛行的交通工具
05:13
You notice here's a big jump when I was a little kid --
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你會注意到這個劇烈的變化，當我還是個小孩
05:15
and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage
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我想：如果有什麼事情給了我勇氣
05:19
to go out and try something that other people weren't having the courage to try.
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讓我去外面嘗試新事物而其他的小孩沒有勇氣去試
05:24
Well, what did I do when I was a kid?
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那麼我小時候都在做什麼呢？
05:26
I didn't do the hotrods and the girls and the dancing
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我沒有去玩車和女孩鬼混以及去跳舞
05:29
and, well, we didn't have drugs in those days. But I did competition model airplanes.
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此外，我們那個年代也沒禁藥。我參加了模型飛機的比賽
05:34
I spent about seven years during the Vietnam War
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越戰時期我花了將近七年
05:36
flight-testing airplanes for the Air Force.
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為空軍測試各式飛機
05:39
And then I went in and I had a lot of fun building airplanes
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然後我開始讓我得到許多樂趣的打造飛機的事業
05:41
that people could build in their garages.
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開始試那種在家裏的車庫就可以建造的那種
05:44
And some 3,000 of those are flying. Of course, one of them
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現在有三千架還在飛行。當然，還包括了
05:47
is around the world Voyager. I founded another company in '82,
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環遊世界不加油的航行者號(Voyager)在1982年我成立了另一家公司
05:51
which is my company now.
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也是我現在的公司
05:53
And we have developed more than one new type of airplane every year since 1982.
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自從1982年開始我們每年都推出新的飛機設計
06:00
And there's a lot of them that I actually can't show you on this chart.
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有很多的飛機我無法在這張圖上面介紹給大家
06:04
The most impressive airplane ever, I believe, was designed
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最令人讚賞的飛機設計，我相信是在大約
06:08
only a dozen years after the first operational jet.
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噴射機成功後的十二年之間做出來的
06:12
Stayed in service till it was too rusty to fly, taken out of service.
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一直服役到它實在生鏽得太厲害才退休
06:16
We retreated in '98 back to something that was developed in '56. What?
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我們從1998年到退到1956年所發展的技術是怎麼了？
06:23
The most impressive spaceship ever, I believe,
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最傑出的太空船，我相信是
06:26
was a Grumman Lunar Lander. It was a -- you know, it landed on the moon,
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格魯曼(Grumman)公司所做的登月小艇，他曾經 --你知道的降落在月球上
06:31
take off of the moon, didn't need any maintenance guys --
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無需地勤人員的協助再從月球起飛
06:33
that's kind of cool.
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我覺得很酷
06:35
We've lost that capability. We abandoned it in '72.
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我們已經喪失了這樣的能力，在1972年代我們就放棄了
06:38
This thing was designed three years after Gagarin first flew in space in 1961.
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這是在前蘇聯太空人加加林(Yuri Gagrin)1961年第一次飛上太空後三年內設計出來的
06:43
Three years, and we can't do that now. Crazy.
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三年，而我們現在做不到
06:48
Talk very briefly about innovation cycles, things that grow,
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世代發展有許多的活動產生，但談到創新的這一部分，已經被其他東西取代了。
06:53
have a lot of activity; they die out when they're replaced by something else.
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這樣的事情每二十五年發生一次
06:57
These things tend to happen every 25 years.
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四十年很長，就算是有重疊，你可以把這樣的陳述
07:00
40 years long, with an overlap. You can put that statement
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放在其他任何一個科技，有趣的是
07:04
on all kinds of different technologies. The interesting thing --
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順便提一下，這速度～對不起，更高速的旅行
07:07
by the way, the speed here, excuse me, higher-speed travel
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在這些創新的區塊裏，根本就不存在
07:10
is the title of these innovation cycles. There is none here.
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這兩架飛機根本上與在1958年完成的DC8有著同樣的速度
07:16
These two new airplanes are the same speed as the DC8 that was done in 1958.
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這有件大事 這就是說你根本不需要創新的區塊
07:24
Here's the biggie, and that is, you don't have innovation cycles
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如果政府開發和政府使用他
07:27
if the government develops and the government uses it.
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你知道，一個很好的例子，當然就是DARPA網
07:30
You know, a good example, of course, is the DARPA net.
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電腦當初是先設計給火砲，後來IRS
07:34
Computers were used for artillery first, then IRS.
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當我們拿到他的時候，你現在可以把它應用在各種活動上
07:37
But when we got it, now you have all the level of activity,
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所有的好處，將他用在私人用途
07:40
all the benefit from it. Private sector has to do it.
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請你記住，我把創新提出來
07:44
Keep that in mind. I put down innovation --
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我希望太空有創新的東西，而我卻找不到
07:47
I've looked for innovation cycles in space; I found none.
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在最初的一年，當加加林進入太空
07:50
The very first year, starting when Gagarin went in space,
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幾個禮拜後艾倫●薛菲爾德，那兒有五艘由人操控的
07:54
and a few weeks later Alan Shepherd, there were five manned
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太空船在世界上，在最初的那一年
07:57
space flights in the world -- the very first year.
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在2003由美國政府送上太空的幾位太空人殉職了
08:00
In 2003, everyone that the United States sent to space was killed.
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2003只有三、四趟太空飛行
08:09
There were only three or four flights in 2003.
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在2004只有兩次太空飛行，兩次蘇俄Soyuz太空任務
08:11
In 2004, there were only two flights: two Russian Soyuz flights
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飛行到國際太空站，而我在Mojave沙漠飛行了三次
08:18
to the international manned station. And I had to fly three in Mojave
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跟我那十幾個人的小團隊
08:22
with my little group of a couple dozen people
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只要達成五次
08:24
in order to get to a total of five,
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那就跟1691年太空飛行的總數相當
08:26
which was the number the same year back in 1961.
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這根本沒長進，根本沒有活動，根本什麼都沒有
08:31
There is no growth. There's no activity. There's no nothing.
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這張照片是從SpaceShipOne號上拍攝的
08:36
This is a picture here taken from SpaceShipOne.
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這照片拍攝的地點在地球軌道上
08:39
This is a picture here taken from orbit.
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我們的目標是讓大家可以看到這樣的照片並且喜愛他
08:41
Our goal is to make it so that you can see this picture and really enjoy that.
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我們現在知道如何安全的做次軌道飛行
08:47
We know how to do it for sub-orbital flying now, do it safe enough --
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最起碼跟最初的民航機一樣安全，而這些已經完成
08:51
at least as safe as the early airlines -- so that can be done.
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我想聊一下有關我們之所有會有這樣的勇氣
08:55
And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage
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雖然我們只是一家小公司，卻勇於嘗試
09:00
to go out and try that as a small company.
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首先，想到將來會發生什麼事？
09:07
Well, first of all, what's going to happen next?
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快速的工業化，很多的競爭者
09:10
The first industry will be a high volume, a lot of players.
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上週已經有另一家公司宣布他們也可以做到
09:14
There's another one announced just last week.
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將會是次軌道飛行，之所以是次軌道飛行
09:17
And it will be sub-orbital. And the reason it has to be sub-orbital
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是因為現在還沒有安全的配套
09:23
is, there is not solutions for adequate safety
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將大眾飛行到軌道上面，而政府已經這麼做
09:26
to fly the public to orbit. The governments have been doing this --
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三個國家的政府已經這樣做了45五年了
09:31
three governments have been doing this for 45 years,
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仍然有百分之四的人，在太空喪命
09:33
and still four percent of the people that have left the atmosphere have died.
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當然，你不會以這樣的風險來經營你的事業
09:37
That's -- You don't want to run a business with that kind of a safety record.
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將來會有大量的人飛行，我想在2020年約有十萬人次
09:42
It'll be very high volume; we think 100,000 people will fly by 2020.
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我不能告訴你什麼時候會開始
09:48
I can't tell you when this will start,
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因為我不願意讓我的競爭對手知道我的排程
09:50
because I don't want my competition to know my schedule.
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不過我想一旦成形，我們會提出解決方案
09:53
But I think once it does, we will find solutions,
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而且非常快速的，你會看到軌道上的休閒旅館
09:58
and very quickly, you'll see those resort hotels in orbit.
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而去月球繞一圈則是非常容易做的事情。
10:01
And that real easy thing to do, which is a swing around the moon
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如果你也有這樣酷的眼界，那就真的太好了
10:04
so you have this cool view. And that will be really cool.
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因為在月球上並沒有大氣層
10:08
Because the moon doesn't have an atmosphere --
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你可以做誤差約十英呎的橢圓軌道飛行
10:10
you can do an elliptical orbit and miss it by 10 feet if you want.
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喔～那會是多麼的好玩
10:13
Oh, it's going to be so much fun.
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笑聲
10:15
(Laughter)
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好啦～批評我的人說：「嘿，魯坦你就花這些」
10:17
OK. My critics say, "Hey, Rutan's just spending
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「億萬富翁的錢，幫他們弄個億萬富翁之旅好了」
10:21
a lot of these billionaires' money for joyrides for billionaires.
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「這是什麼東西，這不是交通工具，這只是個玩具」
10:26
What's this? This is not a transportation system; it's just for fun."
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我以前非常受這個困擾，後來我開始想
10:31
And I used to be bothered by that, and then I got to thinking,
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等等，我在1978年買了我第一台蘋果電腦
10:34
well, wait a minute. I bought my first Apple computer in 1978
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而我買的原因是因為我可以說：「我家有一台電腦，你卻沒有」
10:39
and I bought it because I could say, "I got a computer at my house and you don't.
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「你能拿它用來幹嘛」？「過來嘛，它可以玩青蛙過街」好嗎
10:45
'What do you use it for?' Come over. It does Frogger." OK.
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笑聲
10:50
(Laughter)
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不是那個銀行的電腦或者是洛克希德公司的電腦
10:51
Not the bank's computer or Lockheed's computer,
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家庭的電腦是要拿來玩遊戲的
10:54
but the home computer was for games.
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十幾年來它都是為了娛樂 -- 我們甚至不知道要拿它來做什麼？
10:57
For a whole decade it was for fun -- we didn't even know what it was for.
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不過後來發生的事情，事實上我們創造了這龐大的工業
11:01
But what happened, the fact that we had this big industry,
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大研發、大進步和能力的大提昇...等等
11:05
big development, big improvement and capability and so on,
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我們將這樣的創新放進了很多人的家裡
11:09
and they get out there in enough homes -- we were ripe for a new invention.
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發明家可能就在現場聽眾裏
11:14
And the inventor is in this audience.
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愛爾●高爾(Al Gore)因此而發明了網際網路
11:16
Al Gore invented the Internet and because of that,
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什麼 -- 我們整年都在使用的東西 -- 對不起
11:20
something that we used for a whole year -- excuse me --
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一整個十年我們都在玩樂，成了任何事情 -- 我們的商業、我們的研發
11:23
a whole decade for fun, became everything -- our commerce, our research,
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我們的通訊，如果我們讓Google那些人
11:29
our communication and, if we let the Google guys
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想上幾個週末，我們可能要在剛才的清單上多加上幾項
11:33
think for another couple weekends, we can add a dozen more things to the list. (Laughter)
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不用太久的時間，你就不太能說服你的孩子
11:37
And it won't be very long before you won't be able to convince kids
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我們家裡不一定要有電腦
11:40
that we didn't always have computers in our homes.
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這麼好玩的東西值得我們力爭
11:45
So fun is defendable.
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好啦，我來給大家看一張複雜的圖
11:48
OK, I want to show you kind of a busy chart,
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在我的預測中會發生的事情
11:53
but in it is my prediction with what's going to happen.
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也在此提出了另一個思考
11:56
And in it also brings up another point, right here.
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有一群人走向前來
12:00
There's a group of people that have come forward --
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你不一定全認識，不過那走向前來的
12:04
and you don't know all of them -- but the ones that have come forward
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是受到啟發的孩子，從3歲到15歲
12:07
were inspired as young children, this little three- to 15-year-old age,
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跟著我們去軌道和去月球
12:14
by us going to orbit and going to the moon here,
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在同一個時代
12:17
right in this time period.
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保羅●艾倫、艾倫●莫斯克、李察●布蘭森、傑夫●貝周斯
12:19
Paul Allen, Elan Musk, Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, the Ansari family,
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安薩里家族現在正贊助俄國的次軌道計畫
12:29
which is now funding the Russians' sub-orbital thing,
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包伯●畢吉羅一個私人的太空站和卡麥克
12:34
Bob Bigelow, a private space station, and Carmack.
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這些人把他們的錢放在一個有趣的地方
12:38
These people are taking money and putting it in an interesting area,
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而我覺得真的比他們放在其他
12:44
and I think it's a lot better than they put it in an area
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像是更好的行動電話還是什麼的好 -- 但是他們放得很不明顯
12:47
of a better cell phone or something -- but they're putting it in very --
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而這讓我們有了不同的能力
12:51
areas and this will lead us into this kind of capability,
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這將會引領我們來到下一件大事情
12:55
and it will lead us into the next really big thing
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它將讓我們可以探索，而我認為這是一定會發生的
12:57
and it will allow us to explore. And I think eventually
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它會讓我們有能力去別的地方建立殖民地而不致於絕滅
13:01
it will allow us to colonize and to keep us from going extinct.
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他們這些人都被大事情啟發，那我們來看看這些發展的後續
13:05
They were inspired by big progress. But look at the progress that's going on after that.
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這裏有幾個例子
13:11
There were a couple of examples here.
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軍方的戰鬥機飛行員有最高性能的戰機
13:13
The military fighters had a -- highest-performance military airplane
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像SR71它已經壽終正寢銹得太厲害而停飛
13:17
was the SR71. It went a whole life cycle, got too rusty to fly,
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因此從軍隊設備終退役了，協和號商用飛機縮短了飛航時間的一半
13:22
and was taken out of service. The Concorde doubled the speed for airline travel.
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它沒有任何競爭的飛到了壽命到期
13:27
It went a whole life cycle without competition,
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停飛了，然後我們就卡在這裏
13:30
took out of service. And we're stuck back here
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擁有這樣能力的軍用飛機
13:33
with the same kind of capability for military fighters
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這樣優秀的商用飛機是從50年代末期就有了
13:36
and commercial airline travel that we had back in the late '50s.
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但是有什麼事情啟發了現在的小孩呢
13:40
But something is out there to inspire our kids now.
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我在說如果現在你懷孕呢
13:44
And I'm talking about if you've got a baby now,
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如果你有個十歲大的小孩
13:46
or if you've got a 10-year-old now.
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外界到底有什麼有趣的大事情發生在他們周圍
13:47
What's out there is there's something really interesting going to happen here.
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不久的將來，你將可以買張票
13:53
Relatively soon, you'll be able to buy a ticket
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飛得比軍用戰鬥機更高更快
13:55
and fly higher and faster than the highest-performance
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這是以前從沒發生過的事情
14:00
military operational airplane. It's never happened before.
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事實上是他們在那樣的性能就停止發展
14:04
The fact that they have stuck here with this kind of performance
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既然在12分鐘之內就可以打贏戰爭
14:09
has been, well, you know, you win the war in 12 minutes;
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那你為什麼還需要更好的呢？
14:12
why do you need something better?
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不過我認為很快的人們會開始買票飛行
14:13
But I think when you guys start buying tickets and flying
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次軌道的太空之旅 -- 等等
14:16
sub-orbital flights to space, very soon -- wait a minute,
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發生了什麼事情，我們軍用戰鬥機
14:21
what's happening here, we'll have military fighters
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有次軌道的能力嗎？我相信很快就會有了
14:24
with sub-orbital capability, and I think very soon this.
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不過有趣的事情是商用的飛行器將先具有這樣的能力
14:27
But the interesting thing about it is the commercial guys are going to go first.
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好吧～我期待一個...我們叫他 -- 新的太空競賽吧
14:31
OK, I look forward to a new "capitalist's space race," let's call it.
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你記得在六零年代，太空競賽是國家的尊嚴
14:37
You remember the space race in the '60s was for national prestige,
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因為我們並沒拿下第一、第二個里程碑
14:41
because we lost the first two milestones.
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在科技上我們並不輸他們，事實上我們也擁有硬體
14:44
We didn't lose them technically. The fact that we had the hardware
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當馮●布朗試飛時就可以放東西在軌道上
14:48
to put something in orbit when we let Von Braun fly it --
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你可以爭辯那不是科技上輸人
14:53
you can argue that's not a technical loss.
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史波尼克衛星並不試科技上的挫敗，而是尊嚴上的失敗
14:55
Sputnik wasn't a technical loss, but it was a prestige loss.
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美國 -- 世界不認為美國是科技上的領導者
14:59
America -- the world saw America as not being the leader in technology,
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而那是非常強烈的指控
15:06
and that was a very strong thing.
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後來我們讓艾倫●薛菲爾德落後加加林幾週後飛上天
15:08
And then we flew Alan Shepherd weeks after Gagarin,
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不是幾個月或是幾十年後，所以我們有那個能力
15:13
not months or decades, or whatever. So we had the capability.
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不過美國輸了，我們輸了，因為如此我們大幅躍進去彌補
15:18
But America lost. We lost. And because of that, we made a big jump to recover it.
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再一次，這有趣的地方是我們輸了
15:27
Well, again, what's interesting here is we've lost
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輸給俄國前幾個里程碑
15:30
to the Russians on the first couple of milestones already.
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你不能在美國買到商業的太空飛行
15:33
You cannot buy a ticket commercially to fly into space in America --
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做不到，你可以在俄國買到
15:38
can't do it. You can buy it in Russia.
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你可以利用俄國的硬體飛行，它已經可以取得了
15:43
You can fly with Russian hardware. This is available
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因為俄國的太空計劃非常缺乏經費
15:46
because a Russian space program is starving,
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一個座位可以賣兩千萬美金對他們來說還真不錯
15:49
and it's nice for them to get 20 million here and there to take one of the seats.
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這是商業化，可以被定義為太空旅遊，他們甚至還有旅遊規劃
15:54
It's commercial. It can be defined as space tourism. They are also offering a trip
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可以去月球繞一圈，就像是阿波羅八號曾經做的
16:01
to go on this whip around the moon, like Apollo 8 was done.
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一億美金，嘿～我可以去月球
16:05
100 million bucks -- hey, I can go to the moon.
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不過，你如果在六零年代就想到這個
16:08
But, you know, would you have thought back in the '60s,
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當太空競賽還正進行當中
16:11
when the space race was going on,
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這商業化的太空飛行
16:13
that the first commercial capitalist-like thing to do
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買張票去月球會是用俄國的硬體嗎？
16:19
to buy a ticket to go to the moon would be in Russian hardware?
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你會想到嗎，俄國人會想到嗎
16:23
And would you have thought, would the Russians have thought,
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利用他們開發的硬體第一個到月球的
16:26
that when they first go to the moon in their developed hardware,
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在太空船裏的不是俄國人，可能會是日本人
16:30
the guys inside won't be Russians? Maybe it'll probably be a Japanese
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或者是美國的富豪？這真的很怪，知道嗎？那真的是
16:34
or an American billionaire? Well, that's weird: you know, it really is.
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我認為我們應該要再一次贏過他們
16:38
But anyway, I think we need to beat them again.
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我相信我們所做的會成功，非常成功
16:42
I think what we'll do is we'll see a successful, very successful,
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私人的太空飛行工業，我們是不是第一個並不重要
16:49
private space flight industry. Whether we're first or not really doesn't matter.
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俄國人事實上比協和式客機更早做出超音速客機
16:54
The Russians actually flew a supersonic transport before the Concorde.
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後來他們又飛了幾次運送貨物，而後將他退役
17:00
And then they flew a few cargo flights, and took it out of service.
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我想你也可以看得到這平行發展
17:04
I think you kind of see the same kind of parallel
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如果商業飛行也可以提供服務
17:07
when the commercial stuff is offered.
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我們只略微談到人類商業太空飛行的發展
17:11
OK, we'll talk just a little bit about commercial development for human space flight.
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這張投影片說飛了五次
17:15
This little thing says here: five times
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我已經告訴你太空總署2020年將做的
17:17
what NASA's doing by 2020. I want to tell you, already
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那將是10.5億到10.7億
17:25
there's about 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion
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對於私人太空計劃的投資，卻不跟政府有任何相關
17:29
investment in private space flight that is not government at all --
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發生在全球，如果你閱讀 -- 如果你在網路上搜尋
17:35
already, worldwide. If you read -- if you Google it,
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你可以找到大約一半的經費，但是那只有一半
17:40
you'll find about half of that money, but there's twice of that
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已經投入發展的，雖然還沒花到這麼多，但已經投入
17:43
being committed out there -- not spent yet, but being committed
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而且在未來幾年繼續發展，嘿～這很龐大
17:47
and planned for the next few years. Hey, that's pretty big.
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我推測，這個工業將獲利豐厚
17:50
I'm predicting, though, as profitable as this industry is going to be --
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當你用每個人二十萬美元飛行將是非常有利潤的
17:55
and it certainly is profitable when you fly people at 200,000 dollars
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事實上你可以控制在十分之一的費用來經營
17:59
on something that you can actually operate at a tenth of that cost,
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甚至更少 -- 這將會非常有獲利空間
18:03
or less -- this is going to be very profitable.
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我推測，這些投資也同樣的會受益
18:07
I predict, also, that the investment that will flow into this
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將會比美國納稅人所付的約一半的費用
18:10
will be somewhere around half of what the U.S. taxpayer
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相較於美國太空總署花在他們的太空計劃
18:14
spends for NASA's manned spacecraft work.
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每一分錢會使得這個計畫更有效率的運作
18:18
And every dollar that flows into that will be spent more efficiently
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大約相差10到15，這意味著在我們事前就知道
18:23
by a factor of 10 to 15. And what that means is before we know it,
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沒有納稅人的錢，我們載人太空計劃
18:31
the progress in human space flight, with no taxpayer dollars,
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將多出五倍的人數
18:38
will be at a level of about five times as much
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比較起太空總署當前預算所飛行的人數
18:44
as the current NASA budgets for human space flight.
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那是因為我們私人的企業
18:49
And that is because it's us. It's private industry.
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你不應該依賴政府幫你做這一類的事情
18:57
You should never depend on the government to do this sort of stuff --
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我們會長久經營，在NACA之前的NASA
19:03
and we've done it for a long time. The NACA, before NASA,
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從來沒有規劃過要做商業的機隊，也從未想要一個機隊
19:06
never developed an airliner and never ran an airline.
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不過NASA開發了太空的貨機，他們一向如此
19:10
But NASA is developing the space liner, always has,
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而且只經營太空貨機，好嗎，我們就避開吧
19:14
and runs the only space line, OK. And we've shied away from it
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因為我們很怕這個，不過在2004年的六月
19:21
because we're afraid of it. But starting back in June of 2004,
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我展示一個小組實際上可以做得到
19:27
when I showed that a little group out there actually can do it,
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可以開始這麼做，所有的事情都在那一刻改變了
19:32
can get a start with it, everything changed after that time.
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好啦～非常謝謝大家
19:35
OK, thank you very much.
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掌聲
19:37
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineerIn 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism.
Why you should listen
Burt Rutan is widely regarded as one of the world's most important industrial designers, and his prolific contributions to air- and spacecraft design have driven the industry forward for decades. His two companies, Rutan Aircraft Factory and Scaled Composites, have developed and flight-tested more new types of aircraft than the rest of the US industry combined. He has himself designed hundreds of aircraft, including the famous Voyager, which his brother piloted on a record-breaking nine-day nonstop flight around the world.
Rutan might also be the person to make low-cost space tourism a reality: He's one of the major players promoting entrepreneurial approaches to space exploration, and his collaboration with Virgin Galactic is the most promising of these efforts. SpaceShipTwo, a collaboration between Richard Branson and Rutan completed its first "captive carry" in March of 2010, marking the beginning of the era of commercial space exploration.
Ever the maverick, Rutan is known for both his bold proclamations and his criticism of the aerospace industry. Witness the opening line of his presentation at TED2006: "Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space."
Burt Rutan | Speaker | TED.com