ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism.

Why you should listen

Burt Rutan is widely regarded as one of the world's most important industrial designers, and his prolific contributions to air- and spacecraft design have driven the industry forward for decades. His two companies, Rutan Aircraft Factory and Scaled Composites, have developed and flight-tested more new types of aircraft than the rest of the US industry combined. He has himself designed hundreds of aircraft, including the famous Voyager, which his brother piloted on a record-breaking nine-day nonstop flight around the world. 

Rutan might also be the person to make low-cost space tourism a reality: He's one of the major players promoting entrepreneurial approaches to space exploration, and his collaboration with Virgin Galactic is the most promising of these efforts. SpaceShipTwo, a collaboration between Richard Branson and Rutan completed its first "captive carry" in March of 2010, marking the beginning of the era of commercial space exploration.

Ever the maverick, Rutan is known for both his bold proclamations and his criticism of the aerospace industry. Witness the opening line of his presentation at TED2006: "Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space."

More profile about the speaker
Burt Rutan | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Burt Rutan: The real future of space exploration

伯特●魯坦(Burt Rutan)眼中太空的未來

Filmed:
2,412,936 views

在這個充滿熱情的演講,傳奇的太空船設計家伯特●魯坦(Burt Rutan)嚴詞指責美國政府成立的太空計劃遲滯不前,同時鼓勵企業家們繼續美國太空總署(NASA)所停止的計畫。
- Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
I want to start開始 off by saying, Houston休斯頓, we have a problem問題.
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我要用一句話來開場「休士頓~我們有麻煩了」
00:30
We're entering進入 a second第二 generation of no progress進展
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我們已經沒有進展長達二十年了
00:34
in terms條款 of human人的 flight飛行 in space空間. In fact事實, we've我們已經 regressed回歸.
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針對人類的太空飛行而言,事實上我們倒退了
00:39
We stand a very big chance機會 of losing失去 our ability能力 to inspire啟發 our youth青年
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我們正承受著遺失去啟發年輕人改變的能力
00:45
to go out and continue繼續 this very important重要 thing
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去做和延續這些重要的事情
00:48
that we as a species種類 have always doneDONE.
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而這是人類一直在進行的事情
00:50
And that is, instinctively本能 we've我們已經 gone走了 out
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而這正是我們逐漸消失的本能
00:53
and climbed爬上 over difficult places地方, went to more hostile敵對 places地方,
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像是登上困難的高峰、到達人煙罕至的地方
00:59
and found發現 out later後來, maybe to our surprise, that that's the reason原因 we survived倖存.
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後來不經意的察覺,這些是為什麼我們存活的原因
01:05
And I feel very strongly非常
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我非常強烈的感覺
01:07
that it's not good enough足夠 for us to have generations of kids孩子
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這對我們的下一代來說是非常的不足
01:11
that think that it's OK to look forward前鋒 to a better version
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對於期待著進步是一件好事
01:15
of a cell細胞 phone電話 with a video視頻 in it.
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像手機可以有影像的功能
01:18
They need to look forward前鋒 to exploration勘探; they need to look forward前鋒 to colonization定植;
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他們必須要去探索,必須要往前去開拓
01:22
they need to look forward前鋒 to breakthroughs突破.
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他們必須往前去突破,他們必須這麼做
01:26
We need to inspire啟發 them, because they need to lead us
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我們應該要去啟發他們,因為將來的世界將由他們主導
01:30
and help us survive生存 in the future未來.
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來幫助我們在未來存活
01:33
I'm particularly尤其 troubled苦惱 that what NASA's美國航空航天局 doing right now with this new Bush襯套 doctrine教義
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我特別感到困擾的就是美國太空總署(NASA)現在執行的布希政策
01:39
to -- for this next下一個 decade and a half -- oh shoot射擊, I screwed up.
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在未來的十~十五年 -- 哎呀~我搞砸了
01:45
We have real真實 specific具體 instructions說明 here not to talk about politics政治.
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我們這裏有幾個特別指示,不可以談到政治
01:50
(Laughter笑聲)
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笑聲
01:51
What we're looking forward前鋒 to is --
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我們真正希望前往的未來是 --
01:54
(Applause掌聲)
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掌聲
01:55
what we're looking forward前鋒 to
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我們所要的未來是
01:58
is not only the inspiration靈感 of our children孩子,
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不只是啟發我們的孩子
02:01
but the current當前 plan計劃 right now is not really even allowing允許
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不過現在的規劃甚至不允許我們這麼做
02:06
the most creative創作的 people in this country國家 -- the Boeing's波音公司 and Lockheed's洛克希德·馬丁公司
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國內最具有創意的那群人 -- 波音公司與洛克希德公司
02:10
space空間 engineers工程師 -- to go out and take risks風險 and try new stuff東東.
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太空工程師們去冒險、嘗試新的東西
02:16
We're going to go back to the moon月亮 ... 50 years年份 later後來?
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我們將回到月球 -- 五十年後
02:22
And we're going to do it very specifically特別 planned計劃 to not learn學習 anything new.
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而且我們非常確切的計畫著不學習任何新事物
02:28
I'm really troubled苦惱 by that. But anyway無論如何 that's --
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我非常的被這樣的狀況所困擾,不管怎麼說
02:32
the basis基礎 of the thing that I want to share分享 with you today今天, though雖然,
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這基本的事情跟我今天所要與各位分享的有關
02:36
is that right back to where we inspire啟發 people
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就是回到該怎麼去啟發人們
02:40
who will be our great leaders領導者 later後來.
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那些將來會成為我們偉大領袖的人
02:42
That's the theme主題 of my next下一個 15 minutes分鐘 here.
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那正是在未來的十五分鐘,我所要講的主題
02:46
And I think that the inspiration靈感 begins開始 when you're very young年輕:
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而我想這些啟發開始於各位年紀非常小的時候
02:50
three-year-olds三歲的孩子, up to 12-, 14-year-olds- 年的孩子.
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三歲直到12~14歲
02:54
What they look at is the most important重要 thing.
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什麼是我們 -- 什麼是他們認為最重要的事
02:58
Let's take a snapshot快照 at aviation航空.
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讓我們回顧一下飛行的歷史
03:01
And there was a wonderful精彩 little short four-year四年 time period
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有一個美妙的四年階段
03:04
when marvelous奇妙 things happened發生.
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當不可思議的事件發生
03:07
It started開始 in 1908, when the Wright賴特 brothers兄弟 flew in Paris巴黎, and everybody每個人 said,
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一切開始於1908年,當萊特兄弟飛到巴黎
03:11
"Ooh, hey, I can do that." There's only a few少數 people that have flown飛行
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很多人說:「喔~嘿!我也可以這樣做」,當時只有少數一些人真的飛行過
03:15
in early 1908. In four years年份, 39 countries國家 had hundreds數以百計 of airplanes飛機,
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在1908年早期,過了四年之後,有39個國家擁有上百架的飛機
03:20
thousand of pilots飛行員. Airplanes飛機 were invented發明 by natural自然 selection選擇.
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上千位的飛行員,多種飛機被一般大眾設計出來
03:24
Now you can say that intelligent智能 design設計 designs設計 our airplanes飛機 of today今天,
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現在各位可以說今天的飛機都是由專精的設計師所為
03:28
but there was no intelligent智能 design設計 really designing設計 those early airplanes飛機.
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但是沒有一個專精的設計師去設計那些早期的飛機
03:32
There were probably大概 at least最小 30,000 different不同 things tried試著,
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可能有三萬件不同的事件被嘗試出來
03:37
and when they crash緊急 and kill the pilot飛行員, don't try that again.
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而當他們的飛機墜毀、飛行員喪生,就停止再用那個東西
03:41
The ones那些 that flew and landed登陸 OK
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如果有一架飛機可以飛行、降落就是OK的
03:44
because there were no trained熟練 pilots飛行員
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因為當時也沒有受過訓練的飛行員
03:45
who had good flying飛行 qualities氣質 by definition定義.
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可以被定位為擁有良好的飛行的技術
03:49
So we, by making製造 a whole整個 bunch of attempts嘗試, thousands數千 of attempts嘗試,
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因此我們藉由千百次的嘗試
03:54
in that four-year四年 time period, we invented發明 the concepts概念
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在四年的時間裡,我們發明了飛機概念
03:57
of the airplanes飛機 that we fly today今天. And that's why they're so safe安全,
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就是我們現在飛機,這也說明了他為什麼這麼的安全
04:00
as we gave it a lot of chance機會 to find what's good.
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因此我們一直不斷的修改,以尋找出什麼事最好的
04:04
That has not happened發生 at all in space空間 flying飛行.
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太空飛行領域上還沒看到這樣的嘗試
04:06
There's only been two concepts概念 tried試著 -- two by the U.S. and one by the Russians俄羅斯.
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只有兩個概念被嘗試 -- 美國做了兩個、前蘇聯做了一個
04:10
Well, who was inspired啟發 during that time period?
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那麼~什麼人在那時被啟發了呢?
04:12
Aviation航空 Week asked me to make a list名單 of who I thought
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飛行週刊雜誌請我列出一個表
04:15
were the movers搬運工 and shakers振動篩 of the first 100 years年份 of aviation航空.
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在100年的飛行歷史中舉足輕重的事件
04:18
And I wrote them down and I found發現 out later後來 that every一切 one of them
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我把心目中的列表,後來我發現它們每一個
04:22
was a little kid孩子 in that wonderful精彩 renaissance再生 of aviation航空.
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都有點像是飛行史上的文藝復興
04:29
Well, what happened發生 when I was a little kid孩子 was -- some pretty漂亮 heavy stuff東東 too.
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當我還是個小孩的時候有件非常重要的事情發生了
04:33
The jet噴射 age年齡 started開始: the missile導彈 age年齡 started開始. Von Braun布勞恩 was on there
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噴射機時代的來臨,飛彈時代的來臨,馮布朗(Von Braun)在那時代
04:38
showing展示 how to go to Mars火星 -- and this was before Sputnik人造地球衛星.
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展示出怎麼樣可以去火星 -- 而當時史波尼克衛星(Sputnik)尚未發明
04:40
And this was at a time when Mars火星 was a hell地獄 of a lot more interesting有趣
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跟現在相比火星在當時是多麼的引起大家的興趣
04:44
than it is now. We thought there'd這紅色 be animals動物 there;
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我們當時還相信那兒有生物
04:46
we knew知道 there were plants植物 there; the colors顏色 change更改, right?
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我們知道那兒有植物,因為顏色會改變。對吧?
04:50
But, you know, NASANASA screwed that up because they've他們已經 sent發送 these robots機器人
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不過你知道太空總署(NASA)搞砸了,因為他們現在送去的機器人
04:53
and they've他們已經 landed登陸 it only in the deserts沙漠.
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而他們卻只降落在沙漠地區
04:56
(Laughter笑聲)
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笑聲
05:00
If you look at what happened發生 -- this little black黑色 line is as fast快速 as man ever flew,
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如果你注意著過去發生的事情 -- 這條小黑線是過去飛得最快的人
05:07
and the red line is top-of-the-line頂級的所述線 military軍事 fighters戰士
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這條紅線是軍隊裡飛得最快的戰鬥飛行員
05:10
and the blue藍色 line is commercial廣告 air空氣 transport運輸.
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藍線代表了商業飛行的交通工具
05:13
You notice注意 here's這裡的 a big jump when I was a little kid孩子 --
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你會注意到這個劇烈的變化,當我還是個小孩
05:15
and I think that had something to do with giving me the courage勇氣
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我想:如果有什麼事情給了我勇氣
05:19
to go out and try something that other people weren't having the courage勇氣 to try.
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讓我去外面嘗試新事物而其他的小孩沒有勇氣去試
05:24
Well, what did I do when I was a kid孩子?
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那麼我小時候都在做什麼呢?
05:26
I didn't do the hotrodshotrods and the girls女孩 and the dancing跳舞
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我沒有去玩車和女孩鬼混以及去跳舞
05:29
and, well, we didn't have drugs毒品 in those days. But I did competition競爭 model模型 airplanes飛機.
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此外,我們那個年代也沒禁藥。我參加了模型飛機的比賽
05:34
I spent花費 about seven years年份 during the Vietnam越南 War戰爭
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越戰時期我花了將近七年
05:36
flight-testing飛行測試 airplanes飛機 for the Air空氣 Force.
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為空軍測試各式飛機
05:39
And then I went in and I had a lot of fun開玩笑 building建造 airplanes飛機
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然後我開始讓我得到許多樂趣的打造飛機的事業
05:41
that people could build建立 in their garages車庫.
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開始試那種在家裏的車庫就可以建造的那種
05:44
And some 3,000 of those are flying飛行. Of course課程, one of them
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現在有三千架還在飛行。當然,還包括了
05:47
is around the world世界 Voyager航海家. I founded成立 another另一個 company公司 in '82,
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環遊世界不加油的航行者號(Voyager)在1982年我成立了另一家公司
05:51
which哪一個 is my company公司 now.
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也是我現在的公司
05:53
And we have developed發達 more than one new type類型 of airplane飛機 every一切 year since以來 1982.
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自從1982年開始我們每年都推出新的飛機設計
06:00
And there's a lot of them that I actually其實 can't show顯示 you on this chart圖表.
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有很多的飛機我無法在這張圖上面介紹給大家
06:04
The most impressive有聲有色 airplane飛機 ever, I believe, was designed設計
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最令人讚賞的飛機設計,我相信是在大約
06:08
only a dozen years年份 after the first operational操作 jet噴射.
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噴射機成功後的十二年之間做出來的
06:12
Stayed沉祥福 in service服務 till直到 it was too rusty生疏 to fly, taken採取 out of service服務.
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一直服役到它實在生鏽得太厲害才退休
06:16
We retreated撤退 in '98 back to something that was developed發達 in '56. What?
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我們從1998年到退到1956年所發展的技術是怎麼了?
06:23
The most impressive有聲有色 spaceship飛船 ever, I believe,
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最傑出的太空船,我相信是
06:26
was a Grumman格魯曼公司 Lunar太陰 Lander著陸器. It was a -- you know, it landed登陸 on the moon月亮,
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格魯曼(Grumman)公司所做的登月小艇,他曾經 --你知道的降落在月球上
06:31
take off of the moon月亮, didn't need any maintenance保養 guys --
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無需地勤人員的協助再從月球起飛
06:33
that's kind of cool.
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我覺得很酷
06:35
We've我們已經 lost丟失 that capability能力. We abandoned it in '72.
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我們已經喪失了這樣的能力,在1972年代我們就放棄了
06:38
This thing was designed設計 three years年份 after Gagarin加加林 first flew in space空間 in 1961.
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這是在前蘇聯太空人加加林(Yuri Gagrin)1961年第一次飛上太空後三年內設計出來的
06:43
Three years年份, and we can't do that now. Crazy.
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三年,而我們現在做不到
06:48
Talk very briefly簡要地 about innovation革新 cycles週期, things that grow增長,
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世代發展有許多的活動產生,但談到創新的這一部分,已經被其他東西取代了。
06:53
have a lot of activity活動; they die out when they're replaced更換 by something else其他.
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這樣的事情每二十五年發生一次
06:57
These things tend趨向 to happen發生 every一切 25 years年份.
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四十年很長,就算是有重疊,你可以把這樣的陳述
07:00
40 years年份 long, with an overlap交疊. You can put that statement聲明
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放在其他任何一個科技,有趣的是
07:04
on all kinds of different不同 technologies技術. The interesting有趣 thing --
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順便提一下,這速度~對不起,更高速的旅行
07:07
by the way, the speed速度 here, excuse藉口 me, higher-speed更高速度 travel旅行
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在這些創新的區塊裏,根本就不存在
07:10
is the title標題 of these innovation革新 cycles週期. There is none沒有 here.
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這兩架飛機根本上與在1958年完成的DC8有著同樣的速度
07:16
These two new airplanes飛機 are the same相同 speed速度 as the DCDC8 that was doneDONE in 1958.
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這有件大事 這就是說你根本不需要創新的區塊
07:24
Here's這裡的 the biggie大不了, and that is, you don't have innovation革新 cycles週期
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如果政府開發和政府使用他
07:27
if the government政府 develops發展 and the government政府 uses使用 it.
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你知道,一個很好的例子,當然就是DARPA網
07:30
You know, a good example, of course課程, is the DARPADARPA net.
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電腦當初是先設計給火砲,後來IRS
07:34
Computers電腦 were used for artillery砲兵 first, then IRSIRS.
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當我們拿到他的時候,你現在可以把它應用在各種活動上
07:37
But when we got it, now you have all the level水平 of activity活動,
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所有的好處,將他用在私人用途
07:40
all the benefit效益 from it. Private私人的 sector扇形 has to do it.
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請你記住,我把創新提出來
07:44
Keep that in mind心神. I put down innovation革新 --
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我希望太空有創新的東西,而我卻找不到
07:47
I've looked看著 for innovation革新 cycles週期 in space空間; I found發現 none沒有.
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在最初的一年,當加加林進入太空
07:50
The very first year, starting開始 when Gagarin加加林 went in space空間,
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幾個禮拜後艾倫●薛菲爾德,那兒有五艘由人操控的
07:54
and a few少數 weeks later後來 Alan艾倫 Shepherd牧羊人, there were five manned載人
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太空船在世界上,在最初的那一年
07:57
space空間 flights航班 in the world世界 -- the very first year.
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在2003由美國政府送上太空的幾位太空人殉職了
08:00
In 2003, everyone大家 that the United聯合的 States狀態 sent發送 to space空間 was killed殺害.
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2003只有三、四趟太空飛行
08:09
There were only three or four flights航班 in 2003.
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在2004只有兩次太空飛行,兩次蘇俄Soyuz太空任務
08:11
In 2004, there were only two flights航班: two Russian俄語 Soyuz聯盟 flights航班
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飛行到國際太空站,而我在Mojave沙漠飛行了三次
08:18
to the international國際 manned載人 station. And I had to fly three in Mojave莫哈韋
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跟我那十幾個人的小團隊
08:22
with my little group of a couple一對 dozen people
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只要達成五次
08:24
in order訂購 to get to a total of five,
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那就跟1691年太空飛行的總數相當
08:26
which哪一個 was the number the same相同 year back in 1961.
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這根本沒長進,根本沒有活動,根本什麼都沒有
08:31
There is no growth發展. There's no activity活動. There's no nothing.
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這張照片是從SpaceShipOne號上拍攝的
08:36
This is a picture圖片 here taken採取 from SpaceShipOne太空船一號.
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這照片拍攝的地點在地球軌道上
08:39
This is a picture圖片 here taken採取 from orbit軌道.
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我們的目標是讓大家可以看到這樣的照片並且喜愛他
08:41
Our goal目標 is to make it so that you can see this picture圖片 and really enjoy請享用 that.
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我們現在知道如何安全的做次軌道飛行
08:47
We know how to do it for sub-orbital亞軌道 flying飛行 now, do it safe安全 enough足夠 --
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最起碼跟最初的民航機一樣安全,而這些已經完成
08:51
at least最小 as safe安全 as the early airlines航空公司 -- so that can be doneDONE.
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我想聊一下有關我們之所有會有這樣的勇氣
08:55
And I think I want to talk a little bit about why we had the courage勇氣
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雖然我們只是一家小公司,卻勇於嘗試
09:00
to go out and try that as a small company公司.
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首先,想到將來會發生什麼事?
09:07
Well, first of all, what's going to happen發生 next下一個?
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快速的工業化,很多的競爭者
09:10
The first industry行業 will be a high volume, a lot of players玩家.
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上週已經有另一家公司宣布他們也可以做到
09:14
There's another另一個 one announced公佈 just last week.
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將會是次軌道飛行,之所以是次軌道飛行
09:17
And it will be sub-orbital亞軌道. And the reason原因 it has to be sub-orbital亞軌道
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是因為現在還沒有安全的配套
09:23
is, there is not solutions解決方案 for adequate充足 safety安全
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將大眾飛行到軌道上面,而政府已經這麼做
09:26
to fly the public上市 to orbit軌道. The governments政府 have been doing this --
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三個國家的政府已經這樣做了45五年了
09:31
three governments政府 have been doing this for 45 years年份,
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仍然有百分之四的人,在太空喪命
09:33
and still four percent百分 of the people that have left the atmosphere大氣層 have died死亡.
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當然,你不會以這樣的風險來經營你的事業
09:37
That's -- You don't want to run a business商業 with that kind of a safety安全 record記錄.
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將來會有大量的人飛行,我想在2020年約有十萬人次
09:42
It'll它會 be very high volume; we think 100,000 people will fly by 2020.
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我不能告訴你什麼時候會開始
09:48
I can't tell you when this will start開始,
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因為我不願意讓我的競爭對手知道我的排程
09:50
because I don't want my competition競爭 to know my schedule時間表.
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不過我想一旦成形,我們會提出解決方案
09:53
But I think once一旦 it does, we will find solutions解決方案,
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而且非常快速的,你會看到軌道上的休閒旅館
09:58
and very quickly很快, you'll你會 see those resort採取 hotels酒店 in orbit軌道.
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而去月球繞一圈則是非常容易做的事情。
10:01
And that real真實 easy簡單 thing to do, which哪一個 is a swing搖擺 around the moon月亮
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如果你也有這樣酷的眼界,那就真的太好了
10:04
so you have this cool view視圖. And that will be really cool.
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因為在月球上並沒有大氣層
10:08
Because the moon月亮 doesn't have an atmosphere大氣層 --
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你可以做誤差約十英呎的橢圓軌道飛行
10:10
you can do an elliptical橢圓的 orbit軌道 and miss小姐 it by 10 feet if you want.
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喔~那會是多麼的好玩
10:13
Oh, it's going to be so much fun開玩笑.
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笑聲
10:15
(Laughter笑聲)
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好啦~批評我的人說:「嘿,魯坦你就花這些」
10:17
OK. My critics批評者 say, "Hey, Rutan's魯坦的 just spending開支
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「億萬富翁的錢,幫他們弄個億萬富翁之旅好了」
10:21
a lot of these billionaires'億萬富翁“ money for joyridesjoyrides for billionaires億萬富翁.
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「這是什麼東西,這不是交通工具,這只是個玩具」
10:26
What's this? This is not a transportation運輸 system系統; it's just for fun開玩笑."
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我以前非常受這個困擾,後來我開始想
10:31
And I used to be bothered困擾 by that, and then I got to thinking思維,
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等等,我在1978年買了我第一台蘋果電腦
10:34
well, wait a minute分鐘. I bought my first Apple蘋果 computer電腦 in 1978
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而我買的原因是因為我可以說:「我家有一台電腦,你卻沒有」
10:39
and I bought it because I could say, "I got a computer電腦 at my house and you don't.
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「你能拿它用來幹嘛」?「過來嘛,它可以玩青蛙過街」好嗎
10:45
'What do you use it for?' Come over. It does Frogger青蛙." OK.
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笑聲
10:50
(Laughter笑聲)
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不是那個銀行的電腦或者是洛克希德公司的電腦
10:51
Not the bank's銀行 computer電腦 or Lockheed's洛克希德·馬丁公司 computer電腦,
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家庭的電腦是要拿來玩遊戲的
10:54
but the home computer電腦 was for games遊戲.
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十幾年來它都是為了娛樂 -- 我們甚至不知道要拿它來做什麼?
10:57
For a whole整個 decade it was for fun開玩笑 -- we didn't even know what it was for.
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不過後來發生的事情,事實上我們創造了這龐大的工業
11:01
But what happened發生, the fact事實 that we had this big industry行業,
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大研發、大進步和能力的大提昇...等等
11:05
big development發展, big improvement起色 and capability能力 and so on,
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我們將這樣的創新放進了很多人的家裡
11:09
and they get out there in enough足夠 homes家園 -- we were ripe成熟 for a new invention發明.
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發明家可能就在現場聽眾裏
11:14
And the inventor發明者 is in this audience聽眾.
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愛爾●高爾(Al Gore)因此而發明了網際網路
11:16
Al Gore血塊 invented發明 the Internet互聯網 and because of that,
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什麼 -- 我們整年都在使用的東西 -- 對不起
11:20
something that we used for a whole整個 year -- excuse藉口 me --
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一整個十年我們都在玩樂,成了任何事情 -- 我們的商業、我們的研發
11:23
a whole整個 decade for fun開玩笑, became成為 everything -- our commerce商業, our research研究,
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我們的通訊,如果我們讓Google那些人
11:29
our communication通訊 and, if we let the Google谷歌 guys
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想上幾個週末,我們可能要在剛才的清單上多加上幾項
11:33
think for another另一個 couple一對 weekends週末, we can add a dozen more things to the list名單. (Laughter笑聲)
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不用太久的時間,你就不太能說服你的孩子
11:37
And it won't慣於 be very long before you won't慣於 be able能夠 to convince說服 kids孩子
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我們家裡不一定要有電腦
11:40
that we didn't always have computers電腦 in our homes家園.
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這麼好玩的東西值得我們力爭
11:45
So fun開玩笑 is defendable可防禦.
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好啦,我來給大家看一張複雜的圖
11:48
OK, I want to show顯示 you kind of a busy chart圖表,
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在我的預測中會發生的事情
11:53
but in it is my prediction預測 with what's going to happen發生.
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也在此提出了另一個思考
11:56
And in it also brings帶來 up another另一個 point, right here.
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有一群人走向前來
12:00
There's a group of people that have come forward前鋒 --
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你不一定全認識,不過那走向前來的
12:04
and you don't know all of them -- but the ones那些 that have come forward前鋒
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是受到啟發的孩子,從3歲到15歲
12:07
were inspired啟發 as young年輕 children孩子, this little three-三- to 15-year-old-歲 age年齡,
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跟著我們去軌道和去月球
12:14
by us going to orbit軌道 and going to the moon月亮 here,
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在同一個時代
12:17
right in this time period.
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保羅●艾倫、艾倫●莫斯克、李察●布蘭森、傑夫●貝周斯
12:19
Paul保羅 Allen艾倫, Elan義隆 Musk, Richard理查德 Branson布蘭森, Jeff傑夫 Bezos貝佐斯, the Ansari安薩里 family家庭,
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安薩里家族現在正贊助俄國的次軌道計畫
12:29
which哪一個 is now funding資金 the Russians'俄羅斯人 sub-orbital亞軌道 thing,
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包伯●畢吉羅一個私人的太空站和卡麥克
12:34
Bob短發 Bigelow畢格羅, a private私人的 space空間 station, and Carmack卡馬克.
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這些人把他們的錢放在一個有趣的地方
12:38
These people are taking服用 money and putting it in an interesting有趣 area,
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而我覺得真的比他們放在其他
12:44
and I think it's a lot better than they put it in an area
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像是更好的行動電話還是什麼的好 -- 但是他們放得很不明顯
12:47
of a better cell細胞 phone電話 or something -- but they're putting it in very --
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而這讓我們有了不同的能力
12:51
areas and this will lead us into this kind of capability能力,
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這將會引領我們來到下一件大事情
12:55
and it will lead us into the next下一個 really big thing
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它將讓我們可以探索,而我認為這是一定會發生的
12:57
and it will allow允許 us to explore探索. And I think eventually終於
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它會讓我們有能力去別的地方建立殖民地而不致於絕滅
13:01
it will allow允許 us to colonize拓殖 and to keep us from going extinct絕種.
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他們這些人都被大事情啟發,那我們來看看這些發展的後續
13:05
They were inspired啟發 by big progress進展. But look at the progress進展 that's going on after that.
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這裏有幾個例子
13:11
There were a couple一對 of examples例子 here.
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軍方的戰鬥機飛行員有最高性能的戰機
13:13
The military軍事 fighters戰士 had a -- highest-performance最高性能 military軍事 airplane飛機
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像SR71它已經壽終正寢銹得太厲害而停飛
13:17
was the SRSR71. It went a whole整個 life cycle週期, got too rusty生疏 to fly,
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因此從軍隊設備終退役了,協和號商用飛機縮短了飛航時間的一半
13:22
and was taken採取 out of service服務. The Concorde協和 doubled翻倍 the speed速度 for airline航空公司 travel旅行.
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它沒有任何競爭的飛到了壽命到期
13:27
It went a whole整個 life cycle週期 without competition競爭,
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停飛了,然後我們就卡在這裏
13:30
took out of service服務. And we're stuck卡住 back here
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擁有這樣能力的軍用飛機
13:33
with the same相同 kind of capability能力 for military軍事 fighters戰士
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這樣優秀的商用飛機是從50年代末期就有了
13:36
and commercial廣告 airline航空公司 travel旅行 that we had back in the late晚了 '50s.
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但是有什麼事情啟發了現在的小孩呢
13:40
But something is out there to inspire啟發 our kids孩子 now.
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我在說如果現在你懷孕呢
13:44
And I'm talking about if you've got a baby寶寶 now,
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如果你有個十歲大的小孩
13:46
or if you've got a 10-year-old-歲 now.
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外界到底有什麼有趣的大事情發生在他們周圍
13:47
What's out there is there's something really interesting有趣 going to happen發生 here.
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不久的將來,你將可以買張票
13:53
Relatively相對 soon不久, you'll你會 be able能夠 to buy購買 a ticket
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飛得比軍用戰鬥機更高更快
13:55
and fly higher更高 and faster更快 than the highest-performance最高性能
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這是以前從沒發生過的事情
14:00
military軍事 operational操作 airplane飛機. It's never happened發生 before.
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事實上是他們在那樣的性能就停止發展
14:04
The fact事實 that they have stuck卡住 here with this kind of performance性能
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既然在12分鐘之內就可以打贏戰爭
14:09
has been, well, you know, you win贏得 the war戰爭 in 12 minutes分鐘;
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那你為什麼還需要更好的呢?
14:12
why do you need something better?
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不過我認為很快的人們會開始買票飛行
14:13
But I think when you guys start開始 buying購買 tickets門票 and flying飛行
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次軌道的太空之旅 -- 等等
14:16
sub-orbital亞軌道 flights航班 to space空間, very soon不久 -- wait a minute分鐘,
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發生了什麼事情,我們軍用戰鬥機
14:21
what's happening事件 here, we'll have military軍事 fighters戰士
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有次軌道的能力嗎?我相信很快就會有了
14:24
with sub-orbital亞軌道 capability能力, and I think very soon不久 this.
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不過有趣的事情是商用的飛行器將先具有這樣的能力
14:27
But the interesting有趣 thing about it is the commercial廣告 guys are going to go first.
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好吧~我期待一個...我們叫他 -- 新的太空競賽吧
14:31
OK, I look forward前鋒 to a new "capitalist's資本主義的 space空間 race種族," let's call it.
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你記得在六零年代,太空競賽是國家的尊嚴
14:37
You remember記得 the space空間 race種族 in the '60s was for national國民 prestige聲望,
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因為我們並沒拿下第一、第二個里程碑
14:41
because we lost丟失 the first two milestones里程碑.
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在科技上我們並不輸他們,事實上我們也擁有硬體
14:44
We didn't lose失去 them technically技術上. The fact事實 that we had the hardware硬件
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當馮●布朗試飛時就可以放東西在軌道上
14:48
to put something in orbit軌道 when we let Von Braun布勞恩 fly it --
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你可以爭辯那不是科技上輸人
14:53
you can argue爭論 that's not a technical技術 loss失利.
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史波尼克衛星並不試科技上的挫敗,而是尊嚴上的失敗
14:55
Sputnik人造地球衛星 wasn't a technical技術 loss失利, but it was a prestige聲望 loss失利.
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美國 -- 世界不認為美國是科技上的領導者
14:59
America美國 -- the world世界 saw America美國 as not being存在 the leader領導 in technology技術,
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而那是非常強烈的指控
15:06
and that was a very strong強大 thing.
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後來我們讓艾倫●薛菲爾德落後加加林幾週後飛上天
15:08
And then we flew Alan艾倫 Shepherd牧羊人 weeks after Gagarin加加林,
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不是幾個月或是幾十年後,所以我們有那個能力
15:13
not months個月 or decades幾十年, or whatever隨你. So we had the capability能力.
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不過美國輸了,我們輸了,因為如此我們大幅躍進去彌補
15:18
But America美國 lost丟失. We lost丟失. And because of that, we made製作 a big jump to recover恢復 it.
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再一次,這有趣的地方是我們輸了
15:27
Well, again, what's interesting有趣 here is we've我們已經 lost丟失
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輸給俄國前幾個里程碑
15:30
to the Russians俄羅斯 on the first couple一對 of milestones里程碑 already已經.
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你不能在美國買到商業的太空飛行
15:33
You cannot不能 buy購買 a ticket commercially商業 to fly into space空間 in America美國 --
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做不到,你可以在俄國買到
15:38
can't do it. You can buy購買 it in Russia俄國.
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你可以利用俄國的硬體飛行,它已經可以取得了
15:43
You can fly with Russian俄語 hardware硬件. This is available可得到
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因為俄國的太空計劃非常缺乏經費
15:46
because a Russian俄語 space空間 program程序 is starving挨餓,
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一個座位可以賣兩千萬美金對他們來說還真不錯
15:49
and it's nice不錯 for them to get 20 million百萬 here and there to take one of the seats.
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這是商業化,可以被定義為太空旅遊,他們甚至還有旅遊規劃
15:54
It's commercial廣告. It can be defined定義 as space空間 tourism旅遊. They are also offering a trip
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可以去月球繞一圈,就像是阿波羅八號曾經做的
16:01
to go on this whip鞭子 around the moon月亮, like Apollo阿波羅 8 was doneDONE.
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一億美金,嘿~我可以去月球
16:05
100 million百萬 bucks雄鹿 -- hey, I can go to the moon月亮.
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不過,你如果在六零年代就想到這個
16:08
But, you know, would you have thought back in the '60s,
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當太空競賽還正進行當中
16:11
when the space空間 race種族 was going on,
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這商業化的太空飛行
16:13
that the first commercial廣告 capitalist-like資本主義樣 thing to do
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買張票去月球會是用俄國的硬體嗎?
16:19
to buy購買 a ticket to go to the moon月亮 would be in Russian俄語 hardware硬件?
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你會想到嗎,俄國人會想到嗎
16:23
And would you have thought, would the Russians俄羅斯 have thought,
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利用他們開發的硬體第一個到月球的
16:26
that when they first go to the moon月亮 in their developed發達 hardware硬件,
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在太空船裏的不是俄國人,可能會是日本人
16:30
the guys inside won't慣於 be Russians俄羅斯? Maybe it'll它會 probably大概 be a Japanese日本
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或者是美國的富豪?這真的很怪,知道嗎?那真的是
16:34
or an American美國 billionaire億萬富翁? Well, that's weird奇怪的: you know, it really is.
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我認為我們應該要再一次贏過他們
16:38
But anyway無論如何, I think we need to beat擊敗 them again.
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我相信我們所做的會成功,非常成功
16:42
I think what we'll do is we'll see a successful成功, very successful成功,
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私人的太空飛行工業,我們是不是第一個並不重要
16:49
private私人的 space空間 flight飛行 industry行業. Whether是否 we're first or not really doesn't matter.
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俄國人事實上比協和式客機更早做出超音速客機
16:54
The Russians俄羅斯 actually其實 flew a supersonic超音 transport運輸 before the Concorde協和.
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後來他們又飛了幾次運送貨物,而後將他退役
17:00
And then they flew a few少數 cargo貨物 flights航班, and took it out of service服務.
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我想你也可以看得到這平行發展
17:04
I think you kind of see the same相同 kind of parallel平行
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如果商業飛行也可以提供服務
17:07
when the commercial廣告 stuff東東 is offered提供.
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我們只略微談到人類商業太空飛行的發展
17:11
OK, we'll talk just a little bit about commercial廣告 development發展 for human人的 space空間 flight飛行.
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這張投影片說飛了五次
17:15
This little thing says here: five times
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我已經告訴你太空總署2020年將做的
17:17
what NASA's美國航空航天局 doing by 2020. I want to tell you, already已經
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那將是10.5億到10.7億
17:25
there's about 1.5 billion十億 to 1.7 billion十億
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對於私人太空計劃的投資,卻不跟政府有任何相關
17:29
investment投資 in private私人的 space空間 flight飛行 that is not government政府 at all --
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發生在全球,如果你閱讀 -- 如果你在網路上搜尋
17:35
already已經, worldwide全世界. If you read -- if you Google谷歌 it,
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你可以找到大約一半的經費,但是那只有一半
17:40
you'll你會 find about half of that money, but there's twice兩次 of that
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已經投入發展的,雖然還沒花到這麼多,但已經投入
17:43
being存在 committed提交 out there -- not spent花費 yet然而, but being存在 committed提交
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而且在未來幾年繼續發展,嘿~這很龐大
17:47
and planned計劃 for the next下一個 few少數 years年份. Hey, that's pretty漂亮 big.
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我推測,這個工業將獲利豐厚
17:50
I'm predicting預測, though雖然, as profitable有利可圖 as this industry行業 is going to be --
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當你用每個人二十萬美元飛行將是非常有利潤的
17:55
and it certainly當然 is profitable有利可圖 when you fly people at 200,000 dollars美元
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事實上你可以控制在十分之一的費用來經營
17:59
on something that you can actually其實 operate操作 at a tenth第十 of that cost成本,
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甚至更少 -- 這將會非常有獲利空間
18:03
or less -- this is going to be very profitable有利可圖.
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我推測,這些投資也同樣的會受益
18:07
I predict預測, also, that the investment投資 that will flow into this
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將會比美國納稅人所付的約一半的費用
18:10
will be somewhere某處 around half of what the U.S. taxpayer納稅人
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相較於美國太空總署花在他們的太空計劃
18:14
spends for NASA's美國航空航天局 manned載人 spacecraft宇宙飛船 work.
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每一分錢會使得這個計畫更有效率的運作
18:18
And every一切 dollar美元 that flows流動 into that will be spent花費 more efficiently有效率的
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大約相差10到15,這意味著在我們事前就知道
18:23
by a factor因子 of 10 to 15. And what that means手段 is before we know it,
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沒有納稅人的錢,我們載人太空計劃
18:31
the progress進展 in human人的 space空間 flight飛行, with no taxpayer納稅人 dollars美元,
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將多出五倍的人數
18:38
will be at a level水平 of about five times as much
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比較起太空總署當前預算所飛行的人數
18:44
as the current當前 NASANASA budgets預算 for human人的 space空間 flight飛行.
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那是因為我們私人的企業
18:49
And that is because it's us. It's private私人的 industry行業.
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你不應該依賴政府幫你做這一類的事情
18:57
You should never depend依靠 on the government政府 to do this sort分類 of stuff東東 --
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我們會長久經營,在NACA之前的NASA
19:03
and we've我們已經 doneDONE it for a long time. The NACANACA, before NASANASA,
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從來沒有規劃過要做商業的機隊,也從未想要一個機隊
19:06
never developed發達 an airliner客機 and never ran an airline航空公司.
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不過NASA開發了太空的貨機,他們一向如此
19:10
But NASANASA is developing發展 the space空間 liner襯墊, always has,
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而且只經營太空貨機,好嗎,我們就避開吧
19:14
and runs運行 the only space空間 line, OK. And we've我們已經 shied迴避 away from it
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因為我們很怕這個,不過在2004年的六月
19:21
because we're afraid害怕 of it. But starting開始 back in June六月 of 2004,
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我展示一個小組實際上可以做得到
19:27
when I showed顯示 that a little group out there actually其實 can do it,
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可以開始這麼做,所有的事情都在那一刻改變了
19:32
can get a start開始 with it, everything changed after that time.
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好啦~非常謝謝大家
19:35
OK, thank you very much.
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掌聲
19:37
(Applause掌聲)
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Translated by Eric Chen
Reviewed by Kai You LIU

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Burt Rutan - Aircraft engineer
In 2004, legendary spacecraft designer Burt Rutan won the $10M Ansari X-Prize for SpaceShipOne, the first privately funded craft to enter space twice in a two-week period. He's now collaborating with Virgin Galactic to build the first rocketship for space tourism.

Why you should listen

Burt Rutan is widely regarded as one of the world's most important industrial designers, and his prolific contributions to air- and spacecraft design have driven the industry forward for decades. His two companies, Rutan Aircraft Factory and Scaled Composites, have developed and flight-tested more new types of aircraft than the rest of the US industry combined. He has himself designed hundreds of aircraft, including the famous Voyager, which his brother piloted on a record-breaking nine-day nonstop flight around the world. 

Rutan might also be the person to make low-cost space tourism a reality: He's one of the major players promoting entrepreneurial approaches to space exploration, and his collaboration with Virgin Galactic is the most promising of these efforts. SpaceShipTwo, a collaboration between Richard Branson and Rutan completed its first "captive carry" in March of 2010, marking the beginning of the era of commercial space exploration.

Ever the maverick, Rutan is known for both his bold proclamations and his criticism of the aerospace industry. Witness the opening line of his presentation at TED2006: "Houston, we have a problem. We're entering a second generation of no progress in terms of human flight in space."

More profile about the speaker
Burt Rutan | Speaker | TED.com