ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2005

Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions

Dan Gilbert: 关于我们错误的期望值

Filmed:
5,287,085 views

Dan Gilbert 向我们展示他探索快乐过程中的研究成果,分享了很多引人入胜的小实验(你也可以自己试一下)。他的演讲最后有问答环节,我们可以看到TED里面许多熟悉的面孔
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
We all make decisions决定 every一切 day; we want to know
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大家每天都在做决定;谁都想知道
00:20
what the right thing is to do -- in domains from the financial金融
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如何做正确的事情--无论是金融、
00:23
to the gastronomic美食 to the professional专业的 to the romantic浪漫.
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烹饪,还是职业、爱情方面
00:27
And surely一定, if somebody could really tell us how to do
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那么,如果有人能指导我们
00:30
exactly究竟 the right thing at all possible可能 times,
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每次都做对
00:33
that would be a tremendous巨大 gift礼品.
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那将是一个非常了不起的才能
00:36
It turns out that, in fact事实, the world世界 was given特定 this gift礼品 in 1738
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其实,早在1738年世人就见识过了拥有这项才能的人
00:41
by a Dutch荷兰人 polymath博学 named命名 Daniel丹尼尔 Bernoulli伯努利.
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他是荷兰学者Daniel Bernoulli
00:44
And what I want to talk to you about today今天 is what that gift礼品 is,
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今天我们就来讲这是怎样一种才能
00:47
and I also want to explain说明 to you why it is
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我还会告诉你为什么即使知道其中的道理
00:50
that it hasn't有没有 made制作 a damn该死的 bit of difference区别.
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也不会事事顺利
00:53
Now, this is Bernoulli's伯努利 gift礼品. This is a direct直接 quote引用.
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这就是Bernoulli的思路,原始的表述
00:58
And if it looks容貌 like Greek希腊语 to you, it's because, well, it's Greek希腊语.
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如果这看起来像希腊字母一样,是因为,嗯,这确实是希腊字母。
01:02
But the simple简单 English英语 translation翻译 -- much less precise精确,
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翻译成英语--没有原文那样的精确
01:06
but it captures捕获 the gist要旨 of what Bernoulli伯努利 had to say -- was this:
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但基本上诠释了Bernoulli的主要思想,那就是
01:10
The expected预期 value of any of our actions行动 --
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我们任何行为的预估价值
01:12
that is, the goodness善良 that we can count计数 on getting得到 --
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或者说能得到的好处
01:16
is the product产品 of two simple简单 things:
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是两样东西的乘积
01:18
the odds可能性 that this action行动 will allow允许 us to gain获得 something,
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一个是成功的概率
01:22
and the value of that gain获得 to us.
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另一个是成功所带来的价值
01:25
In a sense, what Bernoulli伯努利 was saying is,
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从某种程度上说,Bernoulli想表达的是
01:27
if we can estimate估计 and multiply these two things,
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如果我们能预估这两个因素并将其相乘
01:30
we will always know precisely恰恰 how we should behave表现.
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我们总能知道怎样去做
01:33
Now, this simple简单 equation方程, even for those of you
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而这个简单的等式,即使对于你们中间
01:36
who don't like equations方程, is something that you're quite相当 used to.
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不喜欢等式的人来说,也是非常容易理解的
01:39
Here's这里的 an example: if I were to tell you, let's play
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举个例子:假如我告诉你
01:42
a little coin硬币 toss折腾 game游戏, and I'm going to flip翻动 a coin硬币,
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我们来猜硬币,我扔一枚硬币
01:45
and if it comes up heads, I'm going to pay工资 you 10 dollars美元,
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人头朝上,我输你10美元
01:48
but you have to pay工资 four dollars美元 for the privilege特权 of playing播放 with me,
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但你必须先付给我4美元来玩儿
01:52
most of you would say, sure, I'll take that bet赌注. Because you know
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很多人会说,好啊,我跟你玩。因为你知道
01:55
that the odds可能性 of you winning胜利 are one half, the gain获得 if you do is 10 dollars美元,
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你有50%的赢面,而赢了能得到10美元
02:00
that multiplies to five, and that's more
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两者相乘得5,要比你付的4美元多
02:02
than I'm charging充电 you to play. So, the answer回答 is, yes.
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所以当然要玩儿
02:06
This is what statisticians统计学家 technically技术上 call a damn该死的 fine bet赌注.
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统计学家们称之为“完美赌局”
02:10
Now, the idea理念 is simple简单 when we're applying应用 it to coin硬币 tosses,
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在丢硬币的游戏中道理是很简单的
02:13
but in fact事实, it's not very simple简单 in everyday每天 life.
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然而在日常生活中就没那么简单了
02:17
People are horrible可怕 at estimating估计 both of these things,
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人们估计这两件事情的水平都很差
02:21
and that's what I want to talk to you about today今天.
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这正是我今天要讲的
02:23
There are two kinds of errors错误 people make when trying to decide决定
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人们做决策时
02:26
what the right thing is to do, and those are
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会犯两种错误
02:28
errors错误 in estimating估计 the odds可能性 that they're going to succeed成功,
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即错误地估算成功的概率
02:31
and errors错误 in estimating估计 the value of their own拥有 success成功.
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和错误地估算成功的价值
02:35
Now, let me talk about the first one first.
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我们先说第一种错误
02:39
Calculating计算 odds可能性 would seem似乎 to be something rather easy简单:
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计算成功的概率貌似比较容易
02:41
there are six sides双方 to a die, two sides双方 to a coin硬币, 52 cards in a deck甲板.
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1个骰子6个面、一个硬币2个面,一叠扑克52张
02:45
You all know what the likelihood可能性 is of pulling the ace高手 of spades黑桃
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谁都知道抽到黑桃A的概率
02:49
or of flipping翻转 a heads.
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或者丢硬币人头朝上的概率
02:50
But as it turns out, this is not a very easy简单 idea理念 to apply应用
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然而事实证明,具体情况下似乎没有那么简单
02:55
in everyday每天 life. That's why Americans美国人 spend more --
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这也就是为什么美国人在赌博上的花费
02:58
I should say, lose失去 more -- gambling赌博
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更确切地说是赌博输掉的钱
03:01
than on all other forms形式 of entertainment娱乐 combined结合.
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比其它所有娱乐活动花费总和还多
03:06
The reason原因 is, this isn't how people do odds可能性.
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其原因就是,概率并不是人们计算的那样
03:09
The way people figure数字 odds可能性
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人们如何计算概率呢?
03:10
requires要求 that we first talk a bit about pigs.
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说到这里我们先要讨论一个关于猪的问题
03:13
Now, the question I'm going to put to you is whether是否 you think
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这个问题就是,你们觉得
03:15
there are more dogs小狗 or pigs on leashes牵引绳
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任意一天,在牛津镇上被链子拴着的狗更多
03:18
observed观察到的 in any particular特定 day in Oxford牛津.
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还是猪更多?
03:21
And of course课程, you all know that the answer回答 is dogs小狗.
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你们都会说:当然狗更多
03:23
And the way that you know that the answer回答 is dogs小狗 is
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大家得出这个狗比猪多的结论是因为
03:26
you quickly很快 reviewed回顾 in memory记忆 the times
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你们迅速回忆以前
03:28
you've seen看到 dogs小狗 and pigs on leashes牵引绳.
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曾经见过的被拴着的狗和猪
03:30
It was very easy简单 to remember记得 seeing眼看 dogs小狗,
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很容易就想起见过狗
03:33
not so easy简单 to remember记得 pigs. And each one of you assumed假定
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好像没怎么见过猪。所以便假设
03:36
that if dogs小狗 on leashes牵引绳 came来了 more quickly很快 to your mind心神,
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既然能快速地想起见过狗
03:40
then dogs小狗 on leashes牵引绳 are more probable可能.
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应该是被拴着的狗更多些
03:42
That's not a bad rule规则 of thumb拇指, except when it is.
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凭经验判断通常是对的,但这次你错了
03:47
So, for example, here's这里的 a word puzzle难题.
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再拿猜字游戏举个例子
03:49
Are there more four-letter四个字母 English英语 words
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哪种4个字母的单词更多?
03:51
with R in the third第三 place地点 or R in the first place地点?
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R在第三个还是R在第一个
03:55
Well, you check memory记忆 very briefly简要地, make a quick scan扫描,
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你又迅速回忆
03:58
and it's awfully非常 easy简单 to say to yourself你自己, Ring, Rang, Rung梯级,
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很容易想到 Ring,Rang,Rung
04:01
and very hard to say to yourself你自己, Pare削减, Park公园: they come more slowly慢慢地.
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很难回忆出,Pare, Park,至少要慢很多
04:08
But in fact事实, there are many许多 more words in the English英语 language语言
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但实际上,在英文中更多的是
04:10
with R in the third第三 than the first place地点.
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第三个字母是R的单词
04:13
The reason原因 words with R in the third第三 place地点 come slowly慢慢地 to your mind心神
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想到这些单词要慢一些
04:17
isn't because they're improbable难以置信, unlikely不会 or infrequent罕见的.
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并不是因为它们不重要、不常见
04:20
It's because the mind心神 recalls召回 words by their first letter.
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而是因为我们的大脑是根据首字母忆单词的
04:24
You kind of shout out the sound声音, S -- and the word comes.
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你发出一个S音,就能想起一大串单词来
04:27
It's like the dictionary字典;
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就像字典一样
04:28
it's hard to look things up by the third第三 letter.
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而根据第3个字母去查单词往往很难
04:31
So, this is an example of how this idea理念 that
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所以这是一个例子
04:33
the quickness速度 with which哪一个 things come to mind心神
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大脑的反应速度
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can give you a sense of their probability可能性 --
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能暗示你概率的大小
04:37
how this idea理念 could lead you astray走错. It's not just puzzles谜题, though虽然.
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这个结果将把你引向错误的道路。不仅仅是填字游戏
04:41
For example, when Americans美国人 are asked to estimate估计 the odds可能性
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例如,曾在美国人中做过调查,要求他们预测
04:44
that they will die in a variety品种 of interesting有趣 ways方法 --
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各种各样匪夷所思死法发生的几率
04:47
these are estimates估计 of number of deaths死亡 per year
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估计每年
04:50
per 200 million百万 U.S. citizens公民.
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每2亿美国人当中的死亡人数
04:52
And these are just ordinary普通 people like yourselves你自己 who are asked
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这些被调查者都是跟你我一样的普通人
04:54
to guess猜测 how many许多 people die from tornado龙卷风, fireworks烟花, asthma哮喘, drowning溺死, etc等等.
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猜测因为以下原因死亡:飓风、烟火、哮喘、溺水的人数
04:58
Compare比较 these to the actual实际 numbers数字.
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然后和真实发生的数据对比
05:01
Now, you see a very interesting有趣 pattern模式 here, which哪一个 is first of all,
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一个非常有意思的现象出现了,首先
05:04
two things are vastly大大 over-estimated高估, namely亦即 tornadoes龙卷风 and fireworks烟花.
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两项数据大大超过实际值:飓风和烟火
05:09
Two things are vastly大大 underestimated低估:
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两项数据又被大大地低估了
05:11
dying垂死 by drowning溺死 and dying垂死 by asthma哮喘. Why?
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即死于溺水和哮喘病,为什么呢?
05:14
When was the last time that you picked采摘的 up a newspaper报纸
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你什么时候在报纸的头版上读到过
05:17
and the headline标题 was, "Boy男孩 dies of Asthma哮喘?"
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“男童死于哮喘”?
05:20
It's not interesting有趣 because it's so common共同.
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这条新闻非常无趣因为它太常见了
05:23
It's very easy简单 for all of us to bring带来 to mind心神 instances实例
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而大家却很容易想起来
05:27
of news新闻 stories故事 or newsreels新闻影片 where we've我们已经 seen看到
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曾经看过的电视或者新闻中报道
05:30
tornadoes龙卷风 devastating破坏性的 cities城市, or some poor较差的 schmuck笨蛋
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飓风摧毁城市,或者某个倒霉鬼
05:32
who's谁是 blown his hands off with a firework焰火 on the Fourth第四 of July七月.
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在国庆日被烟火蹦掉了脑袋
05:36
Drownings溺水 and asthma哮喘 deaths死亡 don't get much coverage覆盖.
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因为对溺水、哮喘报道的不多
05:39
They don't come quickly很快 to mind心神, and as a result结果,
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在头脑中印象不深,所以
05:41
we vastly大大 underestimate低估 them.
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我们大大低估了这些东西
05:43
Indeed确实, this is kind of like the Sesame芝麻 Street game游戏
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实际上,这就好像“芝麻街”游戏中
05:45
of "Which哪一个 thing doesn't belong属于?" And you're right to say
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“以下哪个选项与其他不同?”的问题,你觉得
05:49
it's the swimming游泳的 pool that doesn't belong属于, because the swimming游泳的 pool
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游泳池跟其它的都不一样,因为游泳池
05:52
is the only thing on this slide滑动 that's actually其实 very dangerous危险.
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其实是最最危险的东西!
05:56
The way that more of you are likely容易 to die than the combination组合
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你们在游泳池中死亡的概率
05:58
of all three of the others其他 that you see on the slide滑动.
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比其它三个的总和还多
06:02
The lottery抽奖 is an excellent优秀 example, of course课程 -- an excellent优秀 test-case测试用例
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买彩票是一个绝佳案例—这是测试人们计算概率能力的
06:06
of people's人们 ability能力 to compute计算 probabilities概率.
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一个极好的例子
06:09
And economists经济学家 -- forgive原谅 me, for those of you who play the lottery抽奖 --
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经济学家--你们中间买彩票的人请原谅我这么说--
06:12
but economists经济学家, at least最小 among其中 themselves他们自己, refer参考 to the lottery抽奖
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至少经济学家们,认为买彩票是一种
06:15
as a stupidity糊涂事 tax, because the odds可能性 of getting得到 any payoff付清
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为愚蠢交的税,因为买彩票
06:20
by investing投资 your money in a lottery抽奖 ticket
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中大奖的几率
06:22
are approximately equivalent当量 to flushing冲洗 the money
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几乎和你直接用马桶
06:24
directly down the toilet厕所 -- which哪一个, by the way,
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把钱冲掉是一样的
06:26
doesn't require要求 that you actually其实 go to the store商店 and buy购买 anything.
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起码这样还不用你费力跑到商店去买一下
06:30
Why in the world世界 would anybody任何人 ever play the lottery抽奖?
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究竟为什么还有人买彩票呢?
06:33
Well, there are many许多 answers答案, but one answer回答 surely一定 is,
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有很多种解释,很显然,但其中有一个一定是
06:36
we see a lot of winners获奖者. Right? When this couple一对 wins the lottery抽奖,
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我们看到了很多赢家,对吗?有一对夫妇中了头彩
06:40
or Ed埃德 McMahon麦克马洪 shows节目 up at your door with this giant巨人 check --
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或者Ed McMahon在你家门口,拿着巨大的一张支票
06:43
how the hell地狱 do you cash现金 things that size尺寸, I don't know.
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你想怎么花这一大笔钱呢?
06:46
We see this on TV电视; we read about it in the paper.
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我们在电视里面看到过;在报纸上也看到过
06:49
When was the last time that you saw extensive广泛 interviews面试
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但你什么时候看到大规模采访
06:52
with everybody每个人 who lost丢失?
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买彩票输了的人?
06:54
Indeed确实, if we required需要 that television电视 stations run
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实际上,如果我们要求电视台
06:57
a 30-second interview访问 with each loser失败者
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在采访每个赢家的同时,对每位没有中彩的人来一个30秒的采访
06:59
every一切 time they interview访问 a winner优胜者, the 100 million百万 losers失败者
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那么这1亿位
07:03
in the last lottery抽奖 would require要求 nine-and-a-half九和半 years年份
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上一个彩票开奖后的输家将要花9.5年的时间
07:06
of your undivided一心一意 attention注意 just to watch them say,
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不间断地告诉你说:
07:09
"Me? I lost丢失." "Me? I lost丢失."
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“我,输了”,“我,输了”……
07:12
Now, if you watch nine-and-a-half九和半 years年份 of television电视 --
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如果你看了九年半的电视
07:14
no sleep睡觉, no potty便壶 breaks休息 -- and you saw loss失利 after loss失利 after loss失利,
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不休不眠--看到一个接一个的输家
07:19
and then at the end结束 there's 30 seconds of, "and I won韩元,"
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然后最后的30秒钟有一个“我,赢了!”
07:21
the likelihood可能性 that you would play the lottery抽奖 is very small.
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你买彩票的可能性就会小很多
07:24
Look, I can prove证明 this to you: here's这里的 a little lottery抽奖.
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现在我证明给你看:这里有一个彩票
07:27
There's 10 tickets门票 in this lottery抽奖.
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一共10张
07:29
Nine of them have been sold出售 to these individuals个人.
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其中的9张已经卖给了不同的人
07:32
It costs成本 you a dollar美元 to buy购买 the ticket and, if you win赢得,
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1张彩票1美元,如果你赢了
07:35
you get 20 bucks雄鹿. Is this a good bet赌注?
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你将得到20美元,这个赌局怎么样?
07:37
Well, Bernoulli伯努利 tells告诉 us it is.
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那么按照Bernoulli的逻辑
07:38
The expected预期 value of this lottery抽奖 is two dollars美元;
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这个彩票的期望回报是2美元
07:41
this is a lottery抽奖 in which哪一个 you should invest投资 your money.
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应该去买
07:44
And most people say, "OK, I'll play."
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而且大多数人都会说“嗯,我要买”
07:46
Now, a slightly different不同 version of this lottery抽奖:
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现在我稍稍改变一下条件
07:49
imagine想像 that the nine tickets门票 are all owned拥有的
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设想其它9张彩票都卖给了
07:51
by one fat脂肪 guy named命名 Leroy乐华.
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一个叫Leroy的胖子
07:53
Leroy乐华 has nine tickets门票; there's one left.
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Leroy有9张,还剩下1张
07:55
Do you want it? Most people won't惯于 play this lottery抽奖.
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你买不买?大多数人不会买
07:58
Now, you can see the odds可能性 of winning胜利 haven't没有 changed,
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其实赢的几率并没有变
08:00
but it's now fantastically飞驰 easy简单 to imagine想像 who's谁是 going to win赢得.
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但很更容易看出谁会赢
08:05
It's easy简单 to see Leroy乐华 getting得到 the check, right?
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显然Leroy会赢,对吗?
08:08
You can't say to yourself你自己, "I'm as likely容易 to win赢得 as anybody任何人,"
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你现在不敢说“我和其它人一样有机会赢”
08:10
because you're not as likely容易 to win赢得 as Leroy乐华.
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显然你的赢面不可能和Leroy一样
08:13
The fact事实 that all those tickets门票 are owned拥有的 by one guy
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所有彩票都被一个人买走的事实
08:15
changes变化 your decision决定 to play,
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改变了你的决定
08:17
even though虽然 it does nothing whatsoever任何 to the odds可能性.
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即使这对概率丝毫没有影响
08:20
Now, estimating估计 odds可能性, as difficult as it may可能 seem似乎, is a piece of cake蛋糕
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估算概率也许看起来比较复杂,但是相对于
08:25
compared相比 to trying to estimate估计 value:
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估算价值来说却是小巫见大巫了
08:27
trying to say what something is worth价值, how much we'll enjoy请享用 it,
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估算价值即试图说出某样东西的价值,我们有多喜欢它
08:30
how much pleasure乐趣 it will give us.
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它给我带来多少快乐
08:33
I want to talk now about errors错误 in value.
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我想多谈谈估值的误差
08:35
How much is this Big Mac苹果电脑 worth价值? Is it worth价值 25 dollars美元?
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麦当劳的一个“巨无霸”值多少钱?值25美元吗?
08:39
Most of you have the intuition直觉 that it's not --
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大家的直觉都是“不值”
08:42
you wouldn't不会 pay工资 that for it.
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你不会花那么多钱去买它
08:44
But in fact事实, to decide决定 whether是否 a Big Mac苹果电脑 is worth价值 25 dollars美元 requires要求
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然而,决定一个“巨无霸”是否值25美元的前提
08:48
that you ask one, and only one question, which哪一个 is:
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是你要问一个,只问一个问题:
08:51
What else其他 can I do with 25 dollars美元?
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我还能用这25美元做什么?
08:53
If you've ever gotten得到 on one of those long-haul长途 flights航班 to Australia澳大利亚
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如果你曾经坐过长时间飞机去澳大利亚
08:57
and realized实现 that they're not going to serve服务 you any food餐饮,
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而且你知道飞机上不提供食物
09:00
but somebody in the row in front面前 of you has just opened打开
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当坐在你前排的人打开了一个
09:02
the McDonald's麦当劳 bag, and the smell of golden金色 arches拱门
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麦当劳的盒子,那诱人的香味
09:05
is wafting飘出 over the seat座位, you think,
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飘过椅背传到你鼻子里,你会觉得
09:08
I can't do anything else其他 with this 25 dollars美元 for 16 hours小时.
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这16小时里25美元做不了其它事情
09:11
I can't even set it on fire -- they took my cigarette香烟 lighter打火机!
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我甚至不能把它烧掉——过安检的时候打火机被没收了:(
09:14
Suddenly突然, 25 dollars美元 for a Big Mac苹果电脑 might威力 be a good deal合同.
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突然间,花25美元买一个“巨无霸”汉堡是一笔划算的买卖
09:17
On the other hand, if you're visiting访问 an underdeveloped发育不全的 country国家,
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反过来,如果你去一个贫穷国家
09:19
and 25 dollars美元 buys购买 you a gourmet美食 meal膳食, it's exorbitant高昂 for a Big Mac苹果电脑.
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在那里25美元可以买一顿丰盛的晚餐,那么“巨无霸”汉堡就显得贵得离谱了
09:23
Why were you all sure that the answer回答 to the question was no,
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为什么大家在我说出特定条件之间
09:26
before I'd even told you anything about the context上下文?
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都认为答案应该是“不”呢?
09:29
Because most of you compared相比 the price价钱 of this Big Mac苹果电脑
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因为大家在比较
09:33
to the price价钱 you're used to paying付款. Rather than asking,
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从前买的“巨无霸”的价格,而不是问自己一个问题
09:36
"What else其他 can I do with my money," comparing比较 this investment投资
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“我还能用这些钱做什么”
09:39
to other possible可能 investments投资, you compared相比 to the past过去.
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与其它可能的消费比较,你比较的是“过去”
09:43
And this is a systematic系统的 error错误 people make.
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这是人们很容易犯的常规性错误
09:45
What you knew知道 is, you paid支付 three dollars美元 in the past过去; 25 is outrageous蛮横的.
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你心里想的是,你曾经花3美元买巨无霸,现在25美元简直是岂有此理
09:50
This is an error错误, and I can prove证明 it to you by showing展示
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这是错误的,我可以证明给大家
09:52
the kinds of irrationalities不合理 to which哪一个 it leads引线.
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这个错误所引致的非理性行为
09:54
For example, this is, of course课程,
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例如,当然了
09:57
one of the most delicious美味的 tricks技巧 in marketing营销,
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这是一个在市场营销中非常常见的把戏
09:59
is to say something used to be higher更高,
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告诉你一样东西曾经非常贵
10:01
and suddenly突然 it seems似乎 like a very good deal合同.
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然后马上这个东西就显得很值
10:04
When people are asked about these two different不同 jobs工作:
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我们做过一个试验,考察人们对两个工作的看法
10:07
a job工作 where you make 60K, then 50K, then 40K,
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一个工作承诺你第一年6万,然后5万,然后4万
10:10
a job工作 where you're getting得到 a salary薪水 cut each year,
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这个工作每年都会减薪
10:12
and one in which哪一个 you're getting得到 a salary薪水 increase增加,
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而另一个工作则承诺你加薪
10:14
people like the second第二 job工作 better than the first, despite尽管 the fact事实
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人们会更希望得到第二个工作,即使
10:18
they're all told they make much less money. Why?
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知道这个工作挣得少一些,为什呢?
10:21
Because they had the sense that declining下降 wages工资 are worse更差
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因为他们觉得减薪比加薪糟糕
10:25
than rising升起 wages工资, even when the total amount of wages工资 is higher更高
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即使减薪期间的总收入更高。
10:29
in the declining下降 period. Here's这里的 another另一个 nice不错 example.
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另外一个例子
10:33
Here's这里的 a $2,000 Hawaiian夏威夷 vacation假期 package; it's now on sale拍卖 for 1,600.
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有一个2000美元的夏威夷度假产品,现在只卖1600美元
10:38
Assuming假设 you wanted to go to Hawaii夏威夷, would you buy购买 this package?
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假设你想去夏威夷,你会不会买这个产品?
10:41
Most people say they would. Here's这里的 a slightly different不同 story故事:
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大多数人是会的。现在稍稍改变一下
10:45
$2,000 Hawaiian夏威夷 vacation假期 package is now on sale拍卖 for 700 dollars美元,
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2000美元的夏威夷度假产品现在只卖700美元
10:49
so you decide决定 to mull仔细考虑 it over for a week.
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你决定再考虑一个礼拜
10:51
By the time you get to the ticket agency机构, the best最好 fares票价 are gone走了 --
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后来你去旅行社的时候,最好的价格已经没有了
10:53
the package now costs成本 1,500. Would you buy购买 it? Most people say, no.
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现在需要1500美元。你会买么?很多人都会说:不会!
10:58
Why? Because it used to cost成本 700, and there's no way I'm paying付款 1,500
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为什么?因为曾经只卖700,而我绝不会花1500
11:02
for something that was 700 last week.
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买上周还是700的旅游产品
11:05
This tendency趋势 to compare比较 to the past过去
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这种”比较过去“的倾向
11:07
is causing造成 people to pass通过 up the better deal合同. In other words,
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使人们放弃了很多好交易,换句话说
11:11
a good deal合同 that used to be a great deal合同 is not nearly几乎 as good
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一个从前有更好价格的交易即使现在仍然是一个好交易,也不如
11:14
as an awful可怕 deal合同 that was once一旦 a horrible可怕 deal合同.
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一个从前有更差价格的差交易能打动人。
11:18
Here's这里的 another另一个 example of how comparing比较 to the past过去
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还有一个例子,说明“比较过去”如何
11:20
can befuddle醉人 our decisions决定.
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迷惑我们的眼睛
11:24
Imagine想像 that you're going to the theater剧院.
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假设你要去剧场看节目
11:26
You're on your way to the theater剧院.
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去剧场的路上
11:27
In your wallet钱包 you have a ticket, for which哪一个 you paid支付 20 dollars美元.
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你钱包里有一张票,是花20美元买的
11:29
You also have a 20-dollar-美元 bill法案.
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你还有一张20美金的纸币
11:31
When you arrive到达 at the theater剧院,
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当你到达剧场的时候
11:33
you discover发现 that somewhere某处 along沿 the way you've lost丢失 the ticket.
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发现票丢了
11:36
Would you spend your remaining其余 money on replacing更换 it?
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你会花剩下的钱再去买一张么?
11:39
Most people answer回答, no.
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很多人会说,不会!
11:42
Now, let's just change更改 one thing in this scenario脚本.
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现在,我只改变一个条件
11:45
You're on your way to the theater剧院,
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你在去剧场的路上
11:46
and in your wallet钱包 you have two 20-dollar-美元 bills票据.
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你钱包里有两张20美元
11:48
When you arrive到达 you discover发现 you've lost丢失 one of them.
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到达剧场的时候发现丢了一张
11:50
Would you spend your remaining其余 20 dollars美元 on a ticket?
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你会不会拿剩下的20美元去买票?
11:52
Well, of course课程, I went to the theater剧院 to see the play.
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当然会!我去剧院就是要看戏的。
11:55
What does the loss失利 of 20 dollars美元 along沿 the way have to do?
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跟我在路上丢没丢20美元没关系
11:58
Now, just in case案件 you're not getting得到 it,
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如果你还没明白我的意思
12:01
here's这里的 a schematic概要 of what happened发生, OK?
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还有另一种简单的解释
12:03
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
12:04
Along沿 the way, you lost丢失 something.
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在路上,你丢了一样东西
12:06
In both cases, it was a piece of paper.
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在两种情况下,这个东西都是一张纸
12:08
In one case案件, it had a U.S. president主席 on it; in the other case案件 it didn't.
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一种情况下,这张纸上有美国总统头像,另一张纸没有。
12:12
What the hell地狱 difference区别 should it make?
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这到底有什么区别?
12:14
The difference区别 is that when you lost丢失 the ticket you say to yourself你自己,
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区别就是,当你丢了票的时候,你会这样对自己说
12:17
I'm not paying付款 twice两次 for the same相同 thing.
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我不会为买样东西花双份的钱
12:19
You compare比较 the cost成本 of the play now -- 40 dollars美元 --
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你将现在的花费--40美元
12:22
to the cost成本 that it used to have -- 20 dollars美元 -- and you say it's a bad deal合同.
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和原来20美元相比,会觉得不值
12:27
Comparing对比 with the past过去 causes原因 many许多 of the problems问题
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比较过去会导致很多问题
12:31
that behavioral行为的 economists经济学家 and psychologists心理学家 identify鉴定
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行为经济学家和心理学家认为这些问题
12:34
in people's人们 attempts尝试 to assign分配 value.
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会影响人们对价值的估算。
12:36
But even when we compare比较 with the possible可能, instead代替 of the past过去,
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但即使不”比较过去“,而去比较其它的可能
12:41
we still make certain某些 kinds of mistakes错误.
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我们还是会犯类似的错误
12:43
And I'm going to show显示 you one or two of them.
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举几个例子
12:45
One of the things we know about comparison对照:
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“比较”有一个特点
12:48
that when we compare比较 one thing to the other, it changes变化 its value.
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当一样东西和另一样东西比较时,它的价值会改变
12:51
So in 1992, this fellow同伴, George乔治 Bush衬套, for those of us who were
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所以在1992年的时候,乔治布什,对于我们这些
12:55
kind of on the liberal自由主义的 side of the political政治 spectrum光谱,
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政治上站在自由主义一边的人来说
12:58
didn't seem似乎 like such这样 a great guy.
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他好像不是一个理想的人物
13:00
Suddenly突然, we're almost几乎 longing渴望 for him to return返回.
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突然间,我们又非常盼着他复出
13:04
(Laughter笑声)
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笑声
13:07
The comparison对照 changes变化 how we evaluate评估 him.
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比较改变了我们对他的看法
13:10
Now, retailers零售商 knew知道 this long before anybody任何人 else其他 did, of course课程,
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当然,零售商人们早就懂得这个道理
13:14
and they use this wisdom智慧 to help you --
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他们利用这一点使你
13:16
spare备用 you the undue过度的 burden负担 of money.
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花更多的钱
13:18
And so a retailer零售商, if you were to go into a wine红酒 shop
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当你走进一家红酒商店
13:21
and you had to buy购买 a bottle瓶子 of wine红酒,
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要买一瓶红酒
13:22
and you see them here for eight, 27 and 33 dollars美元, what would you do?
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你看到了红酒的价钱:8、27、33美元,你会怎样做?
13:26
Most people don't want the most expensive昂贵,
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大多数人不会买最贵的
13:28
they don't want the least最小 expensive昂贵.
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也不会买最便宜的
13:30
So, they will opt选择 for the item项目 in the middle中间.
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所以他们选择价格适中的
13:32
If you're a smart聪明 retailer零售商, then, you will put a very expensive昂贵 item项目
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如果你是一个聪明的零售商,你会放一个最贵的商品在架上
13:35
that nobody没有人 will ever buy购买 on the shelf,
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即使根本没人买
13:37
because suddenly突然 the $33 wine红酒 doesn't look as expensive昂贵 in comparison对照.
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因为相比之下33美元的红酒显得没那么贵了
13:43
So I'm telling告诉 you something you already已经 knew知道:
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其实这些你们早就知道了
13:44
namely亦即, that comparison对照 changes变化 the value of things.
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“比较”可以改变价值
13:48
Here's这里的 why that's a problem问题:
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但问题在哪里呢?
13:49
the problem问题 is that when you get that $33 bottle瓶子 of wine红酒 home,
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问题就出在:这瓶33美元的红酒带回家后
13:55
it won't惯于 matter what it used to be sitting坐在 on the shelf next下一个 to.
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他的价值跟原来放在旁边的酒没有关系
13:59
The comparisons对比 we make when we are appraising评价 value,
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当初为估量价值而做的比较
14:04
where we're trying to estimate估计 how much we'll like things,
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即我们试图决定我们有多喜欢一样东西
14:08
are not the same相同 comparisons对比 we'll be making制造 when we consume消耗 them.
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当我们消费或者使用这样东西的时候,当初的比较早已不复存在了
14:11
This problem问题 of shifting comparisons对比 can bedevil困扰
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这个“比较转移”的问题
14:15
our attempts尝试 to make rational合理的 decisions决定.
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影响了我们的理性决策
14:18
Let me just give you an example.
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再举一个例子
14:19
I have to show显示 you something from my own拥有 lab实验室, so let me sneak潜行 this in.
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我要给大家看一个实验
14:23
These are subjects主题 coming未来 to an experiment实验 to be asked
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这些实验对象们
14:25
the simplest简单 of all questions问题:
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问一个最简单的问题
14:27
How much will you enjoy请享用 eating potato土豆 chips芯片 one minute分钟 from now?
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一分钟之后你会多享受这包薯条?
14:31
They're sitting坐在 in a room房间 with potato土豆 chips芯片 in front面前 of them.
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实验对象坐在房间里,前面放着一些薯条
14:34
For some of the subjects主题, sitting坐在 in the far corner of a room房间
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对于一些实验对象,他们所在房间的另一个角落,有其它东西
14:37
is a box of GodivaGODIVA chocolates巧克力, and for others其他 is a can of Spam垃圾邮件.
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有的是一盒Godiva巧克力,有的是一罐Spam午餐肉
14:42
In fact事实, these items项目 that are sitting坐在 in the room房间 change更改
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事实上,这些角落里的东西改变了
14:46
how much the subjects主题 think they're going to enjoy请享用 the potato土豆 chips芯片.
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试验者对薯条的预期享受程度
14:49
Namely亦即, those who are looking at Spam垃圾邮件
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也就是说,这些看到午餐肉的人
14:51
think potato土豆 chips芯片 are going to be quite相当 tasty可口;
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会觉得薯条非常美味
14:53
those who are looking at GodivaGODIVA chocolate巧克力
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而看到巧克力的人
14:55
think they won't惯于 be nearly几乎 so tasty可口.
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觉得薯条不会很美味
14:57
Of course课程, what happens发生 when they eat the potato土豆 chips芯片?
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然而,他们吃薯条的时候会怎样呢?
14:59
Well, look, you didn't need a psychologist心理学家 to tell you that
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不需要心理学家告诉你
15:02
when you have a mouthful一口 of greasy, salty, crispy香脆, delicious美味的 snacks小吃,
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当你嘴里都是油炸的,脆脆的美味薯条的时候
15:06
what's sitting坐在 in the corner of the room房间
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在屋子的角落放着什么
15:07
makes品牌 not a damn该死的 bit of difference区别 to your gustatory味觉 experience经验.
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根本不会影响你的味觉
15:12
Nonetheless尽管如此, their predictions预测 are perverted变态 by a comparison对照
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然而在吃之前,人们对食物的预期被“比较”迷惑了
15:16
that then does not carry携带 through通过 and change更改 their experience经验.
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这种“比较”在我们吃的过程中,是完全不存在的
15:20
You've all experienced有经验的 this yourself你自己, even if you've never come
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大家都亲身经历过类似的事情,即使你以前没有
15:22
into our lab实验室 to eat potato土豆 chips芯片. So here's这里的 a question:
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来过我的实验室吃薯条。那我现在有一个问题:
15:25
You want to buy购买 a car汽车 stereo立体声.
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你想买一个汽车音响
15:27
The dealer零售商 near your house sells塞尔斯 this particular特定 stereo立体声 for 200 dollars美元,
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你家附近的经销商卖200美元
15:32
but if you drive驾驶 across横过 town, you can get it for 100 bucks雄鹿.
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如果你开车穿过市区,只要100美元买一个一样的
15:35
So would you drive驾驶 to get 50 percent百分 off, saving保存 100 dollars美元?
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你会开车去买这个五折的音响,从而节省100美元吗?
15:38
Most people say they would.
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多数人都会
15:40
They can't imagine想像 buying购买 it for twice两次 the price价钱
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他们不能想象多花一倍的钱
15:42
when, with one trip across横过 town, they can get it for half off.
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去买一个在城市的另一端只要半价的东西
15:46
Now, let's imagine想像 instead代替 you wanted to buy购买 a car汽车 that had a stereo立体声,
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现在我再假设你想买一辆有音响的车
15:50
and the dealer零售商 near your house had it for 31,000.
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你家旁边的经销商卖31000美元
15:52
But if you drove开车 across横过 town, you could get it for 30,900.
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同样开车穿过市区,只要30900
15:57
Would you drive驾驶 to get it? At this point, 0.003 savings -- the 100 dollars美元.
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你会去么?这次你节省了0.3%,也是100美元
16:01
Most people say, no, I'm going to schlep拖带 across横过 town
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很多人会说,不,我才不会开车穿过拥堵的市区
16:03
to save保存 100 bucks雄鹿 on the purchase采购 of a car汽车?
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就为了节省100美元去买一辆车
16:06
This kind of thinking思维 drives驱动器 economists经济学家 crazy, and it should.
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这种想法令经济学家们抓狂,而也确实应该这样
16:10
Because this 100 dollars美元 that you save保存 -- hello你好! --
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因为你节省下来的这100美元:拜托!
16:14
doesn't know where it came来了 from.
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根本不在乎从哪儿来的
16:16
It doesn't know what you saved保存 it on.
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它也不知道是买什么东西节省下来的
16:18
When you go to buy购买 groceries杂货 with it, it doesn't go,
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你去超市买东西的时候,它不会说
16:20
I'm the money saved保存 on the car汽车 stereo立体声, or,
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我是从汽车音响节省下来的,或者
16:23
I'm the dumb money saved保存 on the car汽车. It's money.
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我是一个笨蛋从买汽车里节省下来的。钱就是钱!
16:27
And if a drive驾驶 across横过 town is worth价值 100 bucks雄鹿, it's worth价值 100 bucks雄鹿
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如果开车穿过市区值100美元,就是值100美元
16:30
no matter what you're saving保存 it on. People don't think that way.
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不管你是通过什么方式节省下来的。可是人们并不这么认为。
16:33
That's why they don't know whether是否 their mutual相互 fund基金 manager经理
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这就是为什么人们不关心基金经理
16:35
is taking服用 0.1 percent百分 or 0.15 percent百分 of their investment投资,
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从他们的投资中拿0.1%还是0.15%佣金
16:40
but they clip coupons优惠券 to save保存 one dollar美元 off of toothpaste牙膏.
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但是他们会收集折扣券去少花1美元买牙膏
16:43
Now, you can see, this is the problem问题 of shifting comparisons对比,
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现在你看到了,也是“转移比较”的问题
16:46
because what you're doing is, you're comparing比较 the 100 bucks雄鹿
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因为你在比较100美元
16:49
to the purchase采购 that you're making制造,
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和你要买的东西之间的关系
16:51
but when you go to spend that money you won't惯于 be making制造 that comparison对照.
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而当你去花这笔钱的时候,你不会再做那样的比较
16:55
You've all had this experience经验.
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你们都有过这样的经历
16:57
If you're an American美国, for example, you've probably大概 traveled旅行 in France法国.
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举个例子,如果你是一个美国人,去法国旅游
17:01
And at some point you may可能 have met会见 a couple一对
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在法国的时候有可能会遇到一对夫妇
17:03
from your own拥有 hometown家乡, and you thought,
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他们也是从你的家乡过来旅游的,你会想
17:04
"Oh, my God, these people are so warm. They're so nice不错 to me.
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天哪!这些人真热情,对我太好了。
17:09
I mean, compared相比 to all these people who hate讨厌 me
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比起那些讨厌我试着说法语
17:11
when I try to speak说话 their language语言 and hate讨厌 me more when I don't,
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更讨厌我不说法语的当地人
17:14
these people are just wonderful精彩." And so you tour游览 France法国 with them,
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这对夫妇简直太好了,所以你和他们一起游历法国
17:17
and then you get home and you invite邀请 them over for dinner晚餐,
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之后你回到家,邀请这对夫妇来家里吃饭
17:19
and what do you find?
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现在的感觉呢?
17:20
Compared相比 to your regular定期 friends朋友,
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和你的其它朋友相比,
17:22
they are boring无聊 and dull平淡, right? Because in this new context上下文,
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他们又无聊又闷,对吗?处在新的环境里
17:26
the comparison对照 is very, very different不同. In fact事实, you find yourself你自己
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这种比较太不一样了。实际上你发现
17:30
disliking不喜欢 them enough足够 almost几乎 to qualify修饰 for French法国 citizenship国籍.
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他们的讨厌程度简直都够资格申请法国国籍了
17:34
Now, you have exactly究竟 the same相同 problem问题 when you shop for a stereo立体声.
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其实如果你去买音响也会遇上同样的问题
17:37
You go to the stereo立体声 store商店, you see two sets of speakers音箱 --
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你去到一个音响商店,你看到了两款扬声器
17:40
these big, boxy四四方方, monoliths巨石, and these little, sleek光滑 speakers音箱,
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一款是又大又方像石头的,一款是小巧玲珑的外表光滑的
17:44
and you play them, and you go, you know, I do hear a difference区别:
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然后你都试了一下,觉得确实听到了他们的区别
17:46
the big ones那些 sound声音 a little better.
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大的那个感觉好一些
17:48
And so you buy购买 them, and you bring带来 them home,
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于是你付了钱,把音响带回家
17:50
and you entirely完全 violate违反 the décorCOR of your house.
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根本不在乎彻底破坏了家里的装饰风格
17:53
And the problem问题, of course课程, is that this comparison对照 you made制作 in the store商店
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问题在于,你在音响商店做的“比较”
17:57
is a comparison对照 you'll你会 never make again.
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回家之后永远不可能再发生
17:59
What are the odds可能性 that years年份 later后来 you'll你会 turn on the stereo立体声 and go,
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你不会再回到那个音响商店说:
18:01
"Sounds声音 so much better than those little ones那些,"
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“大的听起来就是比那些小的好”
18:04
which哪一个 you can't even remember记得 hearing听力.
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具体是哪个“小的”你自己可能都不记得了
18:06
The problem问题 of shifting comparisons对比 is even more difficult
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“比较转移”的问题在跨越时间的
18:09
when these choices选择 are arrayed摆着 over time.
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某些情况下显得更复杂
18:12
People have a lot of trouble麻烦 making制造 decisions决定
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关于不同时间点发生的几件事
18:15
about things that will happen发生 at different不同 points in time.
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人们在做决策时往往显得尤其困难
18:18
And what psychologists心理学家 and behavioral行为的 economists经济学家 have discovered发现
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心理学家和行为经济学家发现
18:20
is that by and large people use two simple简单 rules规则.
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大体上来讲有两个简单的原则
18:23
So let me give you one very easy简单 problem问题, a second第二 very easy简单 problem问题
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现在我先给你一个非常简单的问题,然后是一个同样简单的问题
18:27
and then a third第三, hard, problem问题.
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最后是一个困难的问题
18:28
Here's这里的 the first easy简单 problem问题:
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第一个简单问题是:
18:31
You can have 60 dollars美元 now or 50 dollars美元 now. Which哪一个 would you prefer比较喜欢?
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现在得到$60或者$50,你要哪个?
18:34
This is what we call a one-item一个项目 IQ智商 test测试, OK?
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这个叫做单项智商测验
18:37
All of us, I hope希望, prefer比较喜欢 more money, and the reason原因 is,
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大家都想要更多的钱
18:40
we believe more is better than less.
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因为我们认为多比少好
18:43
Here's这里的 the second第二 problem问题:
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第二个问题来了
18:44
You can have 60 dollars美元 today今天 or 60 dollars美元 in a month. Which哪一个 would you prefer比较喜欢?
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你可以今天得到$60或者一个月之后得到$60,你选哪个?
18:48
Again, an easy简单 decision决定,
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同样的,非常简单的决策
18:50
because we all know that now is better than later后来.
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因为我们知道"现在"比"以后"好
18:54
What's hard in our decision-making做决定 is when these two rules规则 conflict冲突.
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当这两条规则相互冲突时,困难来了
18:57
For example, when you're offered提供 50 dollars美元 now or 60 dollars美元 in a month.
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例如,现在得到$50或者一个月后得到$60,你选哪个
19:01
This typifies典型代表 a lot of situations情况 in life in which哪一个 you will gain获得
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生活中有很多类似情况
19:04
by waiting等候, but you have to be patient患者.
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想得到就必须等待,还要有耐心
19:07
What do we know? What do people do in these kinds of situations情况?
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那么人们在这样的情形下会怎么做呢?
19:10
Well, by and large people are enormously巨大 impatient不耐烦.
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多数情况下,人们很缺乏耐心
19:14
That is, they require要求 interest利益 rates利率 in the hundred
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也就是说他们会要求很高的利息
19:17
or thousands数千 of percents百分比 in order订购 to delay延迟 gratification享乐
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才能推迟他们的满足感
19:21
and wait until直到 next下一个 month for the extra额外 10 dollars美元.
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而等到下个月去获得额外的10美元
19:25
Maybe that isn't so remarkable卓越, but what is remarkable卓越 is
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也许这个还不足为奇,但是奇怪的是
19:28
how easy简单 it is to make this impatience不耐烦 go away by simply只是 changing改变
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让人们有耐心是如此容易,只要改变一下
19:32
when the delivery交货 of these monetary货币 units单位 will happen发生.
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给钱的时间
19:36
Imagine想像 that you can have 50 dollars美元 in a year -- that's 12 months个月 --
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假设你可以一年之后获得50美元--那是12个月
19:39
or 60 dollars美元 in 13 months个月.
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或者13个月之后获得60美元
19:42
What do we find now?
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我们得到了什么结果?
19:43
People are gladly乐意 willing愿意 to wait: as long as they're waiting等候 12,
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人们开始愿意等待了,既然他们已经等了12个月
19:46
they might威力 as well wait 13.
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等13个月也无妨
19:48
What makes品牌 this dynamic动态 inconsistency前后矛盾 happen发生?
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是什么让决策不一致了呢?
19:51
Comparison对照. Troubling令人不安 comparison对照. Let me show显示 you.
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比较!麻烦的比较。我来给大家解释
19:55
This is just a graph图形 showing展示 the results结果 that I just suggested建议
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这是一个我刚刚提到的结果的演示图
19:58
you would show显示 if I gave you time to respond响应, which哪一个 is,
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如果我给大家足够时间去反应,你们会发现
20:00
people find that the subjective主观 value of 50 is higher更高
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人们发现主观上现在的50美元要比
20:03
than the subjective主观 value of 60 when they'll他们会 be delivered交付 in now
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未来的60美元更有价值
20:07
or one month, respectively分别 -- a 30-day-天 delay延迟 --
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虽然仅仅是30天的差别
20:09
but they show显示 the reverse相反 pattern模式 when you push the entire整个 decision决定
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然而当我们把决策时间推迟1年
20:13
off into the future未来 a year.
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他们表现出了完全相反的行为模式
20:16
Now, why in the world世界 do you get this pattern模式 of results结果?
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那么,为什么你会看到这样的结果呢?
20:20
These guys can tell us.
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这两个人可以给我们解释
20:21
What you see here are two lads小伙子,
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大家看到的是两个小伙子
20:24
one of them larger than the other: the fireman消防队员 and the fiddler小提琴手.
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其中一个比另外一个块头大些:救火队员和小提琴家
20:27
They are going to recede退 towards the vanishing消失 point in the horizon地平线,
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他们要往后退直到消失
20:30
and I want you to notice注意 two things.
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我希望大家注意两样东西
20:32
At no point will the fireman消防队员 look taller than the fiddler小提琴手. No point.
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这个救火队员是永远不可能比小提琴家小的,绝对不会
20:38
However然而, the difference区别 between之间 them seems似乎 to be getting得到 smaller.
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然而,他们之间的差距却是越来越小的
20:41
First it's an inch英寸 in your view视图, then it's a quarter-inch四分之一英寸,
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刚开始你看到一英寸的差距,然后是四分之三英寸
20:44
then a half-inch半英寸, and then finally最后 they go off the edge边缘 of the earth地球.
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然后是半英寸,最终他们从地平线上消失了
20:48
Here are the results结果 of what I just showed显示 you.
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这就是我刚刚给大家看的结果
20:51
This is the subjective主观 height高度 --
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这是主观高度
20:53
the height高度 you saw of these guys at various各个 points.
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即你在不同阶段看到的高度
20:56
And I want you to see that two things are true真正.
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现在我想让你看到,两样东西是真的
20:58
One, the farther更远 away they are, the smaller they look;
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第一,他们离我们越远,看起来越小
21:01
and two, the fireman消防队员 is always bigger than the fiddler小提琴手.
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第二,消防队员总是比小提琴师高。
21:03
But watch what happens发生 when we make some of them disappear消失. Right.
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但是当我们让一些东西消失之后发生了什么?
21:09
At a very close distance距离, the fiddler小提琴手 looks容貌 taller than the fireman消防队员,
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如果我们非常近距离观察,小提琴师要比消防队员更高大
21:12
but at a far distance距离
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但是如果离远了
21:14
their normal正常, their true真正, relations关系 are preserved罐头.
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他们正常的,真实的关系就出来了
21:17
As Plato柏拉图 said, what space空间 is to size尺寸, time is to value.
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就像柏拉图说的,时间对于价值的影响正如空间对于大小的影响一样
21:22
These are the results结果 of the hard problem问题 I gave you:
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这是刚才那道难题的答案
21:27
60 now or 50 in a month?
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现在拿50美元还是一个月后拿60?
21:29
And these are subjective主观 values,
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这些是主观的判断
21:30
and what you can see is, our two rules规则 are preserved罐头.
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大家可以看到的是,我们的两条定理都是成立的
21:32
People always think more is better than less:
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人们通常会觉得多比少好
21:34
60 is always better than 50,
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60美元永远比50美元好
21:36
and they always think now is better than later后来:
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人们还会觉得现在永远比将来好
21:38
the bars酒吧 on this side are higher更高 than the bars酒吧 on this side.
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这边的柱形图比那边的要高
21:41
Watch what happens发生 when we drop下降 some out.
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看看去掉几个图形时发生了什么
21:44
Suddenly突然 we have the dynamic动态 inconsistency前后矛盾 that puzzled困惑 us.
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现在突然有些困惑了,刚才比较的结果一下子反了过来
21:47
We have the tendency趋势 for people to go for 50 dollars美元 now
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我们看到人们更希望现在获得50元
21:51
over waiting等候 a month, but not if that decision决定 is far in the future未来.
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而不是去等一个月拿60,但是在更长的时间里,又会反过来决定
21:54
Notice注意 something interesting有趣 that this implies暗示 -- namely亦即, that
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我们看到了一个有趣的现象--那就是
21:58
when people get to the future未来, they will change更改 their minds头脑.
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人们会在未来改变主意
22:02
That is, as that month 12 approaches方法, you will say,
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当第12个月马上到了的时候,你会说
22:05
what was I thinking思维, waiting等候 an extra额外 month for 60 dollars美元?
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为什么还要为了那60块钱再等一个月呢?
22:08
I'll take the 50 dollars美元 now.
439
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我现在就想要这50块钱
22:11
Well, the question with which哪一个 I'd like to end结束 is this:
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那么,在结束的时候想问大家一个问题
22:14
If we're so damn该死的 stupid, how did we get to the moon月亮?
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如果我们都这么笨,人类是怎么登上月球的?
22:17
Because I could go on for about two hours小时 with evidence证据
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因为我可以在这里讲两个小时,举例子
22:20
of people's人们 inability无力 to estimate估计 odds可能性 and inability无力 to estimate估计 value.
443
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证明人类在估计概率和价值方面的无能表现
22:26
The answer回答 to this question, I think, is an answer回答 you've already已经 heard听说
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这个问题的答案,我想大家都已经知道了
22:28
in some of the talks会谈, and I dare say you will hear again:
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以前听过相关的演讲,我敢保证大家还会听到
22:30
namely亦即, that our brains大脑 were evolved进化 for a very different不同 world世界
446
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即是:我们的大脑是朝着一个完全不同的世界进化的
22:34
than the one in which哪一个 we are living活的.
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即是:我们的大脑是朝着一个完全不同的世界进化的
22:36
They were evolved进化 for a world世界
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在大脑为之进化的世界里
22:38
in which哪一个 people lived生活 in very small groups,
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人类生活在很小的群体当中
22:40
rarely很少 met会见 anybody任何人 who was terribly可怕 different不同 from themselves他们自己,
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周围都是和自己一样的人
22:43
had rather short lives生活 in which哪一个 there were few少数 choices选择
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人们的寿命非常短,选择也非常少
22:46
and the highest最高 priority优先 was to eat and mate伴侣 today今天.
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人们决定最重要的事情就是“今朝有酒今朝醉”
22:51
Bernoulli's伯努利 gift礼品, Bernoulli's伯努利 little formula, allows允许 us, it tells告诉 us
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Bernoulli的天赋,Bernoulli的小等式,告诉我们
22:56
how we should think in a world世界 for which哪一个 nature性质 never designed设计 us.
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在这个不符合自然规律的世界我们应该如何思考问题,
23:01
That explains说明 why we are so bad at using运用 it, but it also explains说明
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揭示了为什么我们思考问题这么差,也告诉我们
23:05
why it is so terribly可怕 important重要 that we become成为 good, fast快速.
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勤奋高效是如此重要
23:10
We are the only species种类 on this planet行星
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人类是这个星球上唯一的
23:12
that has ever held保持 its own拥有 fate命运 in its hands.
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将命运掌握在自己手中的物种
23:16
We have no significant重大 predators大鳄,
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我们没有主要的天敌
23:18
we're the masters主人 of our physical物理 environment环境;
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我们征服了大自然
23:20
the things that normally一般 cause原因 species种类 to become成为 extinct绝种
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通常导致物种灭绝的东西
23:23
are no longer any threat威胁 to us.
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已经不能对人类够成威胁
23:26
The only thing -- the only thing -- that can destroy破坏 us and doom厄运 us
463
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只有一样东西,唯一的东西可以毁灭我们
23:31
are our own拥有 decisions决定.
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那就是我们自己的决定
23:33
If we're not here in 10,000 years年份, it's going to be because
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如果在10000年之后人类灭亡了,原因就是
23:37
we could not take advantage优点 of the gift礼品 given特定 to us
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我们没能用好这个天赋
23:41
by a young年轻 Dutch荷兰人 fellow同伴 in 1738,
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那个荷兰人在1738年献给世界的礼物
23:44
because we underestimated低估 the odds可能性 of our future未来 pains辛劳
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因为我们低估了未来痛苦
23:48
and overestimated高估 the value of our present当下 pleasures乐趣.
469
1410000
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高估了眼前快乐的价值
23:52
Thank you.
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谢谢。
23:53
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
24:03
Chris克里斯 Anderson安德森: That was remarkable卓越.
472
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讲得太精彩了
24:06
We have time for some questions问题 for Dan Gilbert吉尔伯特. One and two.
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我们还有些时间向Dan Gilbert提问。这里第一个问题,这里第二个
24:11
Bill法案 Lyell莱尔: Would you say that this mechanism机制
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你是不是说这种思考模式
24:14
is in part部分 how terrorism恐怖主义 actually其实 works作品 to frighten吓唬 us,
475
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也是恐怖分子用来恐吓我们的一种手段
24:18
and is there some way that we could counteract抵消 that?
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有没有方法可以克服它呢?
24:22
Dan Gilbert吉尔伯特: I actually其实 was consulting咨询 recently最近
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实际上最近我正在做一个咨询项目
24:23
with the Department of Homeland家园 Security安全, which哪一个 generally通常 believes相信
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1445000
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和国土安全部合作,大概的内容就是
24:26
that American美国 security安全 dollars美元 should go to making制造 borders国界 safer更安全.
479
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美国的国防经费应该用在可以让边境更加安全的项目上
24:30
I tried试着 to point out to them that terrorism恐怖主义 was a name名称
480
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我试图告诉他们恐怖主义只是一个词
24:33
based基于 on people's人们 psychological心理 reaction反应 to a set of events事件,
481
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是人们对一系列的事件产生的心理反应
24:37
and that if they were concerned关心 about terrorism恐怖主义 they might威力 ask
482
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如果他们真的担心恐怖主义,他们应该问一个问题
24:39
what causes原因 terror恐怖 and how can we stop people from being存在 terrified,
483
1461000
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什么导致恐怖活动以及如何让人们不再恐惧
24:42
rather than -- not rather than, but in addition加成 to
484
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在此基础上
24:45
stopping停止 the atrocities暴行 that we're all concerned关心 about.
485
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再去制止我们所担心的暴行
24:48
Surely一定 the kinds of play that at least最小 American美国 media媒体 give to --
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事实上,美国媒体在这类事件上的报道
24:54
and forgive原谅 me, but in raw生的 numbers数字 these are very tiny accidents事故.
487
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请原谅我的直接,这些恐怖袭击的数量是非常小的
24:59
We already已经 know, for example, in the United联合的 States状态,
488
1481000
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我们已经知道,例如,在美国
25:01
more people have died死亡 as a result结果 of not taking服用 airplanes飞机 --
489
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更多的人因为没有坐飞机而死亡
25:05
because they were scared害怕 -- and driving主动 on highways公路,
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因为他们害怕坐飞机
25:07
than were killed杀害 in 9/11. OK?
491
1489000
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其实在高速公路上开车死的人比911要多
25:09
If I told you that there was a plague鼠疫
492
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如果我告诉你有一个瘟疫
25:11
that was going to kill 15,000 Americans美国人 next下一个 year,
493
1493000
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致使明年美国要死亡15000人
25:14
you might威力 be alarmed惊慌 if you didn't find out it was the flu流感.
494
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如果你不知道这是“感冒",你可能会非常惶恐
25:17
These are small-scale小型 accidents事故, and we should be wondering想知道
495
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这些小规模事件,我们应该反思
25:20
whether是否 they should get the kind of play,
496
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这些东西是否应该得到
25:22
the kind of coverage覆盖, that they do.
497
1504000
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这样多的报道
25:24
Surely一定 that causes原因 people to overestimate估计过高 the likelihood可能性
498
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显然导致人们过高地估计了
25:27
that they'll他们会 be hurt伤害 in these various各个 ways方法,
499
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这些事件的伤害程度
25:29
and gives power功率 to the very people who want to frighten吓唬 us.
500
1511000
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恰恰让那些企图恐吓我们的人达到目的
25:31
CACA: Dan, I'd like to hear more on this. So, you're saying
501
1513000
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Dan,我想再问几句。你的意思是说
25:33
that our response响应 to terror恐怖 is, I mean, it's a form形成 of mental心理 bug窃听器?
502
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我们对恐怖事件的反应,是一种精神上的缺陷吗?
25:37
Talk more about it.
503
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给我们讲讲好吗
25:38
DGDG: It's out-sized出大小. I mean, look.
504
1520000
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这个是被夸大了的。你看
25:41
If Australia澳大利亚 disappears消失 tomorrow明天,
505
1523000
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如果明天澳大利亚消失了
25:43
terror恐怖 is probably大概 the right response响应.
506
1525000
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大家的第一感觉可能就是恐怖袭击
25:45
That's an awful可怕 large lot of very nice不错 people. On the other hand,
507
1527000
5000
那么大的国家,那么善良的人民。但是另一方面
25:50
when a bus总线 blows打击 up and 30 people are killed杀害,
508
1532000
3000
当一辆公共汽车爆炸了,30个人遇难
25:53
more people than that were killed杀害
509
1535000
2000
而在同一个国家更多人
25:55
by not using运用 their seatbelts安全带 in the same相同 country国家.
510
1537000
3000
因为不系安全带死亡
25:58
Is terror恐怖 the right response响应?
511
1540000
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你觉得恐惧应该是正常的反应吗?
25:59
CACA: What causes原因 the bug窃听器? Is it the drama戏剧 of the event事件 --
512
1541000
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是什么导致这样的精神缺陷呢?是事件的震撼效果
26:03
that it's so spectacular壮观?
513
1545000
1000
对人们的触动太大了吗?
26:04
Is it the fact事实 that it's an intentional故意的 attack攻击 by, quote引用, outsiders外人?
514
1546000
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是因为那是一个由“外国人”发动的国际袭击吗?
26:07
What is it?
515
1549000
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或者是别的什么?
26:08
DGDG: Yes. It's a number of things, and you hit击中 on several一些 of them.
516
1550000
3000
是的,很多的因素,你说出了其中的一些
26:11
First, it's a human人的 agent代理人 trying to kill us --
517
1553000
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首先,是一个人类的组织试图杀死我们
26:13
it's not a tree falling落下 on us by accident事故.
518
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而不是一棵树倒下来意外地砸到我们
26:16
Second第二, these are enemies敌人 who may可能 want to strike罢工 and hurt伤害 us again.
519
1558000
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其次,我们的敌人也许会再次发动袭击伤害我们
26:19
People are being存在 killed杀害 for no reason原因 instead代替 of good reason原因 --
520
1561000
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人们是无缘无故地被杀害,而不是死于正常的原因
26:22
as if there's good reason原因, but sometimes有时 people think there are.
521
1564000
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就像真的有正常原因似的,但是有时候人们就是这样想的
26:25
So there are a number of things that together一起
522
1567000
2000
所以这是很多的因素集合在一起
26:27
make this seem似乎 like a fantastic奇妙 event事件, but let's not play down
523
1569000
3000
把这件事变成一个显著事件,但是我们不要忘了
26:30
the fact事实 that newspapers报纸 sell when people see something in it
524
1572000
4000
当人们读到想看的内容时,报纸的销售会比较好
26:34
they want to read. So there's a large role角色 here played发挥 by the media媒体,
525
1576000
3000
所以媒体在其中起了很大作用
26:37
who want these things to be
526
1579000
2000
他们希望这些事情
26:39
as spectacular壮观 as they possibly或者 can.
527
1581000
4000
越引人入胜越好
26:43
CACA: I mean, what would it take to persuade说服 our culture文化 to downplay淡化 it?
528
1585000
6000
我的意思是,怎样去降低这种情绪呢?
26:49
DGDG: Well, go to Israel以色列. You know,
529
1591000
1000
去以色列吧
26:50
go to Israel以色列. And a mall购物中心 blows打击 up,
530
1592000
2000
去以色列。发生了一起商场爆炸事件
26:52
and then everybody's每个人的 unhappy不快乐 about it, and an hour-and-a-half一个半小时 later后来 --
531
1594000
3000
所有人都非常气愤,一个半小时后
26:55
at least最小 when I was there, and I was 150 feet from the mall购物中心
532
1597000
3000
至少当我在场的时候,一个离我们150码的商场
26:58
when it blew自爆 up -- I went back to my hotel旅馆
533
1600000
2000
爆炸了--我回到了酒店
27:00
and the wedding婚礼 that was planned计划 was still going on.
534
1602000
3000
一个计划好的婚礼在照常进行
27:03
And as the Israeli以色列 mother母亲 said,
535
1605000
1000
就像一个以色列母亲所说的
27:04
she said, "We never let them win赢得 by stopping停止 weddings婚礼."
536
1606000
4000
她说,我们永远不会让他们得逞影响我们的婚礼
27:08
I mean, this is a society社会 that has learned学到了 --
537
1610000
1000
我的意思是,这是一个已经习惯了的社会
27:09
and there are others其他 too -- that has learned学到了 to live生活
538
1611000
2000
当然也有其它的社会--学会了如何在
27:11
with a certain某些 amount of terrorism恐怖主义 and not be quite相当 as upset烦乱 by it,
539
1613000
5000
有限的的恐怖主义威胁中生存,而且不会过分担心,被打扰
27:16
shall I say, as those of us who have not had many许多 terror恐怖 attacks攻击.
540
1618000
3000
就像我们中间那些没怎么经历过恐怖袭击的人一样
27:19
CACA: But is there a rational合理的 fear恐惧 that actually其实,
541
1621000
3000
但是这样的恐惧是不是理性的呢
27:22
the reason原因 we're frightened受惊 about this is because we think that
542
1624000
3000
我们我们之所以恐惧是因为
27:25
the Big One is to come?
543
1627000
1000
下一轮袭击可能更严重
27:26
DGDG: Yes, of course课程. So, if we knew知道 that this was the worst最差 attack攻击
544
1628000
4000
当然,如果我们知道这次袭击已经是最严重的了
27:30
there would ever be, there might威力 be more and more buses公共汽车 of 30 people --
545
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--当然,也许还会有更多的30人大巴爆炸--
27:34
we would probably大概 not be nearly几乎 so frightened受惊.
546
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我们很可能就没那么害怕了
27:36
I don't want to say -- please, I'm going to get quoted somewhere某处
547
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我并不是说-我要引用一句别人的话
27:38
as saying, "Terrorism恐怖主义 is fine and we shouldn't不能 be so distressed苦恼."
548
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“恐怖主义不可怕我们不应该那么紧张”
27:42
That's not my point at all.
549
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这决不是我的意思
27:44
What I'm saying is that, surely一定, rationally合理,
550
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我要说的是,理性地讲
27:46
our distress苦难 about things that happen发生, about threats威胁,
551
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我们对这些事实和威胁产生的恐惧心理
27:50
should be roughly大致 proportional成比例的 to the size尺寸 of those threats威胁
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应该和所面对的威胁
27:53
and threats威胁 to come.
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及将要到来的威胁的规模成比例
27:55
I think in the case案件 of terrorism恐怖主义, it isn't.
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我认为在对待恐怖主义这件事上,人们不是这样的
27:58
And many许多 of the things we've我们已经 heard听说 about from our speakers音箱 today今天 --
555
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今天我们听到那么多的演讲
28:00
how many许多 people do you know got up and said,
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有多少人站起来说
28:02
Poverty贫穷! I can't believe what poverty贫穷 is doing to us.
557
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贫穷!贫穷都给我们带来了什么!!!
28:06
People get up in the morning早上; they don't care关心 about poverty贫穷.
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人们早上起来;他们不关心贫穷
28:08
It's not making制造 headlines新闻头条, it's not making制造 news新闻, it's not flashy华而不实.
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贫穷不会被做成头条报道;因为它一点都不吸引人
28:10
There are no guns枪炮 going off.
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这里没有枪声
28:12
I mean, if you had to solve解决 one of these problems问题, Chris克里斯,
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我的意思是,如果你必须去解决其中的一个问题,
28:14
which哪一个 would you solve解决? Terrorism恐怖主义 or poverty贫穷?
562
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你会选哪个?恐怖主义还是贫穷?
28:16
(Laughter笑声)
563
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笑声
28:20
(Applause掌声)
564
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掌声
28:22
That's a tough强硬 one.
565
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这个问题很难
28:24
CACA: There's no question.
566
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毫无疑问
28:25
Poverty贫穷, by an order订购 of magnitude大小, a huge巨大 order订购 of magnitude大小,
567
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贫穷,从重要性上来讲无疑是优先的
28:29
unless除非 someone有人 can show显示 that there's, you know,
568
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除非什么人在这里可以证明
28:32
terrorists恐怖分子 with a nuke核弹 are really likely容易 to come.
569
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恐怖主义已经拥有了核武器
28:36
The latest最新 I've read, seen看到, thought
570
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我最近读到、看到、想到的
28:38
is that it's incredibly令人难以置信 hard for them to do that.
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核武器对于恐怖主义来说还是比较难获得的
28:42
If that turns out to be wrong错误, we all look silly愚蠢,
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如果那个判断是错误的,我们都很愚蠢
28:44
but with poverty贫穷 it's a bit --
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但是相对于贫穷,有那么一点儿……
28:46
DGDG: Even if that were true真正, still more people die from poverty贫穷.
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即使那是真的,还是有更多的人死于贫困
28:53
CACA: We've我们已经 evolved进化 to get all excited兴奋
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我们变得对恐怖袭击很兴奋
28:54
about these dramatic戏剧性 attacks攻击. Is that because in the past过去,
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那是因为
28:57
in the ancient past过去, we just didn't understand理解 things like disease疾病
577
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在古时候,我们不知道疾病
29:00
and systems系统 that cause原因 poverty贫穷 and so forth向前,
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和其他导致贫穷的原因
29:02
and so it made制作 no sense for us as a species种类 to put any energy能源
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所以不用投入太多精力
29:06
into worrying令人担忧 about those things?
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去担心这些事情
29:08
People died死亡; so be it.
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人们死去了,正常的
29:10
But if you got attacked袭击, that was something you could do something about.
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如果你被袭击了,是可以做些什么去应对的
29:12
And so we evolved进化 these responses回复.
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所以我们会有这样的反应
29:14
Is that what happened发生?
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是这个原因吗?
29:15
DGDG: Well, you know, the people who are most skeptical怀疑的
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你知道吗,那些对用进化论解释所有问题
29:18
about leaping跳跃 to evolutionary发展的 explanations说明 for everything
586
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持最大怀疑态度的人
29:20
are the evolutionary发展的 psychologists心理学家 themselves他们自己.
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恰恰是进化心理学者们自己
29:22
My guess猜测 is that there's nothing quite相当 that specific具体
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我的猜测是,从人类的进化史上看
29:25
in our evolutionary发展的 past过去. But rather, if you're looking for
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从来没有任何东西是特定的。然而,如果你去寻找
29:27
an evolutionary发展的 explanation说明, you might威力 say
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一个进化论的解释,你也许会说
29:29
that most organisms生物 are neo-phobic新恐惧 -- that is, they're a little scared害怕
591
1751000
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绝大多数的都有一种“恐新症”--他们害怕
29:33
of stuff东东 that's new and different不同.
592
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新的、不一样的东西
29:34
And there's a good reason原因 to be,
593
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一个充分的理由是
29:36
because old stuff东东 didn't eat you. Right?
594
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见过的东西不会吃你,对吗?
29:37
Any animal动物 you see that you've seen看到 before is less likely容易
595
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见过的动物都不可能
29:40
to be a predator捕食者 than one that you've never seen看到 before.
596
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比那些没见过的动物更可怕
29:43
So, you know, when a school学校 bus总线 is blown up and we've我们已经 never seen看到 this before,
597
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所以,当一个学校的校车爆炸,我们以前从来没有见过这样的事情
29:46
our general一般 tendency趋势 is to orient东方 towards
598
1768000
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这种恐惧新生事物的倾向
29:48
that which哪一个 is new and novel小说 is activated活性.
599
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就被激活了
29:53
I don't think it's quite相当 as specific具体 a mechanism机制
600
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我并不认为这是一种特别的机制在里面起作用
29:55
as the one you alluded暗示 to, but maybe a more fundamental基本的 one underlying底层 it.
601
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就像你刚才暗指的那样,但背后也许是更基础的原因
30:01
Jay松鸦 Walker助步车: You know, economists经济学家 love to talk about
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你知道,经济学家喜欢谈论
30:06
the stupidity糊涂事 of people who buy购买 lottery抽奖 tickets门票. But I suspect疑似
603
1788000
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那些买彩票的人的愚蠢程度。但是我怀疑
30:10
you're making制造 the exact精确 same相同 error错误 you're accusing指责 those people of,
604
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就在你指责这些人的时候,自己也犯了同样的错误
30:13
which哪一个 is the error错误 of value.
605
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也就是在估值上的错误
30:14
I know, because I've interviewed采访
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我这么说是因为在近几年中我曾经访谈过
30:15
about 1,000 lottery抽奖 buyers买家 over the years年份.
607
1797000
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大约1000个买彩票的人
30:17
It turns out that the value of buying购买 a lottery抽奖 ticket is not winning胜利.
608
1799000
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结果显示,购买彩票的价值并不是去中奖
30:21
That's what you think it is. All right?
609
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但这是你认为的价值,对吗?
30:23
The average平均 lottery抽奖 buyer买方 buys购买 about 150 tickets门票 a year,
610
1805000
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一个普通的彩民一年要买大约150张彩票
30:26
so the buyer买方 knows知道 full充分 well that he or she is going to lose失去,
611
1808000
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这个彩民其实完全知道他是会输掉的
30:30
and yet然而 she buys购买 150 tickets门票 a year. Why is that?
612
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可还是会每年买150张,为什么?
30:33
It's not because she is stupid or he is stupid.
613
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这并不是因为他(她)的脑子有问题
30:37
It's because the anticipation预期 of possibly或者 winning胜利
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而是因为中奖的预期
30:40
releases发布 serotonin血清素 in the brain, and actually其实 provides提供 a good feeling感觉
615
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在大脑中释放出一种胺,让人们产生快感
30:44
until直到 the drawing画画 indicates指示 you've lost丢失.
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一直持续到开奖的时候
30:46
Or, to put it another另一个 way, for the dollar美元 investment投资,
617
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换一种说法,投资1美元
30:49
you can have a much better feeling感觉 than flushing冲洗 the money
618
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可以获得比马桶冲钱好很多的快感
30:52
down the toilet厕所, which哪一个 you cannot不能 have a good feeling感觉 from.
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如果你真用马桶冲钱的话,你是不会有好的感觉的
30:55
Now, economists经济学家 tend趋向 to --
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现在,经济学家们都倾向于
30:57
(Applause掌声)
621
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掌声
31:00
-- economists经济学家 tend趋向 to view视图 the world世界
622
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经济学家们都试图用他们的有色眼镜
31:01
through通过 their own拥有 lenses镜头, which哪一个 is:
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看这个世界,结果是:
31:03
this is just a bunch of stupid people.
624
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看到一群愚蠢的人
31:05
And as a result结果, many许多 people look at economists经济学家 as stupid people.
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结果很多人觉得经济学家更愚蠢
31:09
And so fundamentally从根本上, the reason原因 we got to the moon月亮 is,
626
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总之,人类能登上月球
31:12
we didn't listen to the economists经济学家. Thank you very much.
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就是因为当初没有听经济学家的意见,谢谢。
31:15
(Applause掌声)
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掌声
31:20
DGDG: Well, no, it's a great point. It remains遗迹 to be seen看到
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好,你的观点很好。但是有件事还有待考察:
31:23
whether是否 the joy喜悦 of anticipation预期 is exactly究竟 equaled追平
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预期中奖的快乐是不是和
31:27
by the amount of disappointment失望 after the lottery抽奖. Because remember记得,
631
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开奖之后的“沮丧”的程度相等。请记住:
31:30
people who didn't buy购买 tickets门票 don't feel awful可怕 the next下一个 day either,
632
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不买彩票的人开奖后第二天不会觉得那么“沮丧”
31:33
even though虽然 they don't feel great during the drawing画画.
633
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即使在开奖的瞬间也不会感觉那么好
31:35
I would disagree不同意 that people know they're not going to win赢得.
634
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我不同意那些人知道自己肯定会输
31:37
I think they think it's unlikely不会, but it could happen发生,
635
1879000
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也许他们觉得可能性不大,但还是可能发生的
31:40
which哪一个 is why they prefer比较喜欢 that to the flushing冲洗.
636
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所以他们更愿意去买彩票而不是冲厕所
31:43
But certainly当然 I see your point: that there can be
637
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但是我也看到了你的观点:确实,
31:46
some utility效用 to buying购买 a lottery抽奖 ticket other than winning胜利.
638
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除了中奖之外买彩票是会给人们带来一定的效用的
31:50
Now, I think there's many许多 good reasons原因 not to listen to economists经济学家.
639
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其实还有很多很好的理由不听经济学家的
31:53
That isn't one of them, for me, but there's many许多 others其他.
640
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对我来说这不是其中一个,但确实还有很多别的理由
31:56
CACA: Last question.
641
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最后一个问题
31:58
Aubrey奥布里 de Grey灰色: My name's名字的 Aubrey奥布里 de Grey灰色, from Cambridge剑桥.
642
1900000
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我叫Aubrey de Grey,剑桥的
32:01
I work on the thing that kills杀死 more people than anything else其他 kills杀死 --
643
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我所研究的东西比其他所有东西都更能致人死亡
32:05
I work on aging老化 -- and I'm interested有兴趣 in doing something about it,
644
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我研究衰老--非常希望能在这个领域做些什么
32:07
as we'll all hear tomorrow明天.
645
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就像明天大家会听到的
32:08
I very much resonate谐振 with what you're saying,
646
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我很认同你的观点
32:11
because it seems似乎 to me that the problem问题
647
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因为在我看来
32:13
with getting得到 people interested有兴趣 in doing anything about aging老化
648
1915000
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人们之所以不太关心衰老的问题
32:16
is that by the time aging老化 is about to kill you it looks容貌 like cancer癌症
649
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是因为衰老在即将夺去生命的时候,它看起来像癌症
32:19
or heart disease疾病 or whatever随你. Do you have any advice忠告?
650
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或者心脏病什么的。你有什么建议吗?
32:22
(Laughter笑声)
651
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笑声
32:25
DGDG: For you or for them?
652
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建议是给你还是给他们?
32:26
AdGADG: In persuading说服 them.
653
1928000
1000
说服他们
32:27
DGDG: Ah, for you in persuading说服 them.
654
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如果让你说服他们
32:29
Well, it's notoriously臭名昭著 difficult to get people to be farsighted.
655
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让人们有远见是一件非常困难的事情
32:32
But one thing that psychologists心理学家 have tried试着 that seems似乎 to work
656
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但是,有一件事情心理学家试过,效果还不错
32:36
is to get people to imagine想像 the future未来 more vividly生动地.
657
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那就是让人们更生动、更真实地设想未来
32:39
One of the problems问题 with making制造 decisions决定 about the far future未来
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做未来的决策和当前决策的问题
32:42
and the near future未来 is that we imagine想像 the near future未来
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在于人们对当前的预期
32:45
much more vividly生动地 than the far future未来.
660
1947000
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要比未来生动、真实的多
32:47
To the extent程度 that you can equalize均衡 the amount of detail详情
661
1949000
4000
真实你可以找到很多细节
32:51
that people put into the mental心理 representations交涉
662
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帮助人们想象
32:53
of near and far future未来, people begin开始 to make decisions决定
663
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短期和长期的环境,人们开始用同样
32:55
about the two in the same相同 way.
664
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的方式对现在和未来做决定
32:57
So, would you like to have an extra额外 100,000 dollars美元 when you're 65
665
1959000
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你愿意在65随地时候得到额外的100000美元吗?
33:02
is a question that's very different不同 than,
666
1964000
1000
这个问题很复杂,当你设想
33:03
imagine想像 who you'll你会 be when you're 65: will you be living活的,
667
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你65岁的时候是什么人,是否还活着
33:07
what will you look like, how much hair头发 will you have,
668
1969000
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会喜欢什么东西,会留多少头发
33:09
who will you be living活的 with.
669
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和什么人生活在一起
33:10
Once一旦 we have all the details细节 of that imaginary假想 scenario脚本,
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一旦我们想清楚了所有未来情景下的细节
33:13
suddenly突然 we feel like it might威力 be important重要 to save保存
671
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我们会忽然感觉,攒钱是很重要的
33:15
so that that guy has a little retirement退休 money.
672
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所以退休的时候会有钱
33:18
But these are tricks技巧 around the margins利润率.
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但这也不能一概而论
33:20
I think in general一般 you're battling作战 a very fundamental基本的 human人的 tendency趋势,
674
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我感觉总的来说你在和最基本的人性做斗争
33:23
which哪一个 is to say, "I'm here today今天,
675
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那就是:我今天在这里
33:25
and so now is more important重要 than later后来."
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所以现在比未来更重要
33:28
CACA: Dan, thank you. Members会员 of the audience听众,
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谢谢你 Dan,谢谢大家
33:30
that was a fantastic奇妙 session会议. Thank you.
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这段演讲真是很精彩,谢谢大家。
33:31
(Applause掌声)
679
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掌声
Translated by tian zeng
Reviewed by Vivian Lee

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com