TED2003
Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor for the web's future
傑夫‧貝佐斯，談下個階段的網路創新
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網際網路的大起與大落常常拿來與淘金熱作比較，但是亞馬遜公司創始人傑夫.貝佐斯卻認為它比較像是早期的電器產業.
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.
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把復原能力跟科技連想在一起是件比較容易的事。
00:29
You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,
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據我所知，今天會有其他講師
00:32
who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,
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談一些傷筋動骨的東西
00:35
and, of course, with technology it never is.
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不過這在科技界是不會發生的。
00:37
So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.
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所以相對來說，科技是很容易具有復原能力的。
00:41
I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,
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如果回顧網際網路上發生的事 --
00:43
with such an incredible last half a dozen years,
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以過去六年來的驚人發展
00:47
that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.
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的確很難去找到可以對比的例子。
00:50
A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things
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我們如何做決定，如何對事情做出適當的反應
00:54
and what we're supposed to expect about the future
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跟我們對未來的展望，很多時候
00:56
depends on how we bucket things
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取決於我們對事物
00:58
and how we categorize them.
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分門別類的方式。
00:59
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust
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所以從我們剛剛經歷這大起大落的網際網路中
01:03
that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.
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我想到一個不盡相同的比喻：淘金熱。
01:07
It's easy to think of this analogy as very different
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相較其他可能的選擇
01:10
from some of the other things you might pick.
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這個比喻是與眾不同的。
01:12
For one thing, both were very real.
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其一，兩者都是真實發生的。
01:14
In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million
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在1849年的淘金熱中，人們從加州取走了
01:18
worth of gold out of California. It was very real.
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總值七億美元的黃金，這是實在的事。
01:20
The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to
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網際網路也是實實在在的變成了人們溝通的方式
01:24
communicate with each other. It's a big deal.
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這是一件重大的事。
01:27
Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.
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大起、大起、大落、大落
01:31
You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.
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再比較下去，兩者都是狂熱
01:34
I don't have to remind you of all the hype
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不需要我再提醒你有多狂熱吧
01:37
that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
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這是網路上的 -- 像是 GetRich.com(致富網)
01:40
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."
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淘金狂熱裡也找得到 "黃金！黃金！黃金！"
01:43
Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.
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波特蘭的小城出了68位富人！一堆堆的黃色金屬！
01:47
Some have 5,000. Many have more.
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有人淘到五千美元，更多的還比比皆是...
01:50
A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.
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有人賺到十萬美金。
01:54
People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.
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當人們讀到這些文章時馬上熱血沸騰。
01:57
"The Eldorado of the United States of America:
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美國的黃金城。
02:00
the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."
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在加州發現採之不盡的金礦？
02:06
And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.
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淘金熱跟網路熱兩者可相提併論。
02:10
So many people left what they were doing.
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接著人們離開現有的工作
02:13
And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
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淘金熱持續了幾年，接著
02:16
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,
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1849年美國東岸的人一開始聽到這消息時
02:20
they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."
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他們想 "啊，這是騙人的啦。"
02:22
But they keep hearing about people getting rich,
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可是陸續傳來有人一夜致富的消息
02:25
and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.
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到一年後1850，他們還是不相信
02:28
By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth
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直到1852年，他們想 "難道我是最蠢的人嗎？
02:33
by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.
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為何不去加州淘金？" 接著他們動了起來
02:37
These are community affairs, by the way.
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順便提一下，這些是社區事務
02:39
Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams
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東岸的地方社區們聚在一起，然後
02:42
of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,
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一、二十個人一起組團搭車橫跨美國
02:45
and they would form companies.
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而且他們也會組成公司。
02:47
These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,
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這些都不是單獨行動，而且不管你之前
02:50
if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,
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是律師或銀行家，人們放棄原有工作
02:53
no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
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不論他們原有的技能為何，全部都淘金去了。
02:57
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,
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左邊這傢伙是可爾醫師
03:00
he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.
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當時他住在費城，搭船下到巴拿馬
03:03
They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,
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橫越過巴拿馬地峽
03:06
and then take another ship north.
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然後再搭船往北。
03:08
This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.
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這位是圖蘭醫師，他搭貨運馬車到加州。
03:13
This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.
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醫師們相繼離開他們的病人
03:17
These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,
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這兩個當時都是非常成功的 -- 一位是內科
03:19
a surgeon in the other.
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另一位是外科醫師。
03:20
Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.
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同樣的事情也發生在網路上，DrKoop.com (醫酷網)
03:24
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:25
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.
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在淘金熱裡，人們常 "跳船"
03:28
The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak
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在舊金山港那時曾擠滿了600條船
03:35
because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon
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因為人們把船開到那裡以後
03:37
to go search for gold.
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所有船員都棄船淘金去了。
03:39
So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.
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所以六百條船上只剩六百個船長。
03:43
They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.
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他們把船變成了旅館，因為沒船員也開不了船。
03:46
You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.
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"網路熱" 相對於 "淘金熱"
03:51
And you saw some of the excesses
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更有甚者
03:53
that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.
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網路熱創造了同樣的事蹟
03:57
The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.
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當時舊金山防區有1300位士兵
04:01
Half of them deserted to go look for gold.
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有半數跑去找金子了
04:05
And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half
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當局不讓剩下的一半去找失蹤的士兵
04:08
because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
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因為怕像肉包子打狗(一去不回)
04:10
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:12
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:
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其中有個士兵在家書裡寫道:
04:15
"The struggle between right and six dollars a month
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"一個月賺6塊錢的「對」
04:19
and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."
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相較於一天進帳75塊的「錯」，真是很大的掙扎啊"
04:27
They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.
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淘金熱那時燒錢也很快
04:31
This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.
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這相片是當時克朗岱克淘金熱裡的懷特通道
04:35
They loaded up their mules and their horses.
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他們的馬和驢載滿了東西
04:39
And they didn't plan right.
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不過他們並沒有計劃好
04:43
And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,
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而且不曉得路途有多遠
04:46
and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.
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所以馬上面超載了上百公斤的東西
04:50
In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died
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以至於大部份的馬在沒到目的地
04:54
before they could get where they were going.
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就都過勞死了
04:56
It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
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因此後來這路也被叫做 "死馬通道"
04:58
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:
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當時加拿大的內政部記載：
05:02
"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,
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"數以千計的馬在途中死去，
05:05
sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,
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有時成堆的在懸崖下，
05:07
with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,
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身旁可見馬鞍與跟它們一起從山上掉落的包裹，
05:11
sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes
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有時扭曲的屍身，填補了泥坑
05:14
and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,
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為路上同樣可憐的貨運動物們鋪路，
05:17
often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,
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經常，我不情願說，很累，但是還活著，
05:21
a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches
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直到這些可憐的馬蹄倒下
05:24
turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.
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我們才意識到的一個事實
05:27
The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere
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一路上數不清
05:29
account for the myriads of ravens along the road.
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無眼白骨的動物屍骸
05:32
The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,
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這路上見證到的人性泯滅
05:34
the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,
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心碎和痛苦到讓很多人無法想像
05:37
cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."
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也無法用言語來形容。"
05:42
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,
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同樣的除了難聞的氣味之外
05:47
we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.
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網路熱裡有同樣的：超高的燒錢率。
05:52
I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.
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我接下來要播放其中一個所以你們會有印象
05:55
This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
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這是2000年超級盃中的一個廣告片
05:59
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.
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(影片):新娘#1: 你不是說你們有很多不同種的邀請卡嗎？ 店員: 是啊
06:03
Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?
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新娘#2: 那為什麼她的跟我一樣?
06:06
Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.
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旁白: 別人看起來的一件小事... 新娘#3: 你給我看好了.
06:11
Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?
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旁白: 對你來說可能是件大事。新郎#1: 那是你太太嗎？
06:15
Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.
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新郎#2: 15分鐘以後才是. 旁白: 重要的是, 今天是你特別的日子。
06:23
OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.
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OurBeginning.com (我們的開始.com) 結婚比命重, 向世界公佈吧.
06:26
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
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傑夫：很難看出來這在廣告些什麼？
06:30
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:33
But they spent three and a half million dollars
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但是他們花了三百五十萬美金
06:35
in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,
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在2000年的超級盃播放這廣告片
06:38
even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.
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即使他們當時一年只有一百萬的營收
06:44
Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,
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我們開始來談與淘金熱這個類比不同的地方
06:48
and I think rather severely.
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我認為是很大的分別
06:50
And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.
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就是在淘金熱裡，結束就結束了。
06:54
Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson
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這是一個傢伙寫的: "在達森這個地方，有很多人
06:57
at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.
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感到失望與落空
06:59
They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,
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他們冒了生命、健康與財產的風險行了數千里路
07:04
spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform
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辛辛苦苦的花了幾個月的勞力
07:07
and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch
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與很高很高的期待
07:10
have reached the coveted goal only to discover
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結果到頭來發現
07:12
the fact that there is nothing here for them."
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這裡什麼都沒有。"
07:16
And that was, of course, the very common story.
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當然這種故事在那時候很普遍
07:19
Because when you take out that last piece of gold --
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因為當你把最後一塊金子取走時...
07:21
and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --
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如果你回顧1849年的淘金熱，這事發生得很快
07:26
the entire American river region, within two years --
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整個美國河流區在兩年之內每塊石頭都被翻過了
07:29
every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies
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而在那之後只有一些大公司
07:33
who used more sophisticated mining technologies
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使用了比較複雜的開採技術
07:35
started to take gold out of there.
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才開始採到黃金。
07:38
So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic
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接著另一個對比會讓我們感到無比樂觀
07:44
and that analogy is the electric industry.
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就是電力產業
07:49
And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.
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網際網路與電力產業之間
07:53
With the electric industry you actually have to --
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有很多相似的地方
07:56
one of them is that they're both sort of thin,
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其中之一是兩者都算是薄的、
07:58
horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.
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水平的、可以啟動跨越不同產業的層面。
08:01
It's not a specific thing.
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它不只是單一個東西。
08:05
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.
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但是電力也是非常非常廣義的，所以你要把範圍縮小。
08:10
You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.
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它可以指轉移電力
08:14
It's an incredible means of coordinating,
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它也是代表一種協調
08:16
in a very fine-grained way, information flows.
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以一種非常精細的資訊流方式。
08:18
There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.
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電有很多有趣的事情
08:21
And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on
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我特別要大家注意的是
08:26
is sort of the golden age of appliances.
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家電的黄金時代
08:29
The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.
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讓世界進入家電時代的殺手級應用是燈泡
08:34
So the light bulb is what wired the world.
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所以說是燈炮連接了世界
08:36
And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.
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當時的人拉線連世界並沒有想到家電
08:40
They were really thinking about --
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他們真正想的
08:42
they weren't putting electricity into the home;
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並不是讓每個家裡有電
08:44
they were putting lighting into the home.
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他們想的是讓家裡有燈光
08:47
And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
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到後來花了很長的時間才轉移焦點到電。
08:51
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.
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你可以想像當時這是件大事，巨大的資金投入
08:55
All the streets had to be torn up.
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所有的路都被翻了起來
08:58
This is work going on down in lower Manhattan
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這相片是當時曼哈頓下城區的施工情況
09:02
where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.
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他們在蓋第一個發電站
09:06
And they're tearing up all the streets.
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他們把所有的街道拆了
09:08
The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,
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愛廸生電力公司，後來變成愛廸生通用電力，
09:11
which became General Electric,
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然後變成通用電力(GE)公司
09:13
paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.
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他們支付所有挖路的費用，那時是非常昴貴的。
09:19
But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.
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但這不是與網站最像的地方
09:26
Because, remember, the Web got to stand
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請記住，網站已經站在
09:28
on top of all this heavy infrastructure
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所有長途電話網站所建立的
09:30
that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.
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厚實的基礎之上了。
09:33
So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --
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因此所有拉線跟重大的基礎建設
09:36
I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,
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我要回到1994年的網路暴發
09:40
when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.
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當它一年成長 2300%
09:42
How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994
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它怎麼可能在1994年人們都還沒有
09:45
when people weren't really investing in the Web?
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真正投資在網路時成長2300%？
09:48
Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
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那是因為重大基礎建設所已經投下的。
09:52
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,
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所以燈泡打下了重大的基礎建設
09:55
and then home appliances started coming into being.
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然後家電開始變成主流。
09:58
And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --
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那是很大的事，首先是電扇 --
10:01
this was the 1890 electric fan.
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這是 1890 年的電扇
10:04
And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --
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而家電的黄金時期持續了 --
10:08
it depends how you want to measure it --
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要看你怎麼去估算它 --
10:10
but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.
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大概是 40 到 60 年，這持續了一段很長的時間。
10:13
It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.
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從 1890 年開始，電扇是個大成功。
10:19
The electric iron, also very big.
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電熨斗也是大成功。
10:22
By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
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順道一提，這是石棉訴訟的開始。
10:26
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:27
There's asbestos under that handle there.
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這手把下面有塊石棉。
10:32
This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,
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這是第一個吸塵器，1905年胡佛公司出產的
10:35
from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds
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這個吸塵器重達41.73公斤
10:40
and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.
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要兩個人才能運作，而且價錢是一台車的四分之一
10:45
So it wasn't a big seller.
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所以那時賣得不好
10:47
This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --
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這是真的早期試用者的產品
10:51
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:52
the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.
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這 1905 "使金美" 吸塵器
10:54
But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.
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但是三年後，1908年，它的重量下到18公斤。
10:59
Now, not all these things were highly successful.
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這些東西並不是每一樣都很成功。
11:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
11:05
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.
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這是領帶電熨斗，它也是失敗的產品。
11:08
People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.
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我猜大部份的人覺得領帶應該不會皺吧。
11:15
These never really caught on either:
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這些也都失敗了:
11:17
the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.
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這是烘鞋電把，也是沒有大賣
11:21
This came in, like, six different colors.
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它有六種不同顏色的款式
11:23
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
11:25
I don't know why. But I thought, you know,
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我也不知道為什麼，不過
11:28
sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;
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有時候可能發明的時間不對
11:32
maybe it's time to give this one another shot.
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再試一下也許會成也說不定。
11:35
So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.
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如果我們來做個超級盃廣告
11:39
We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --
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再找個贊助商 --
11:43
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
11:45
I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.
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這次成功的機率就大不同了吧。
11:49
Now, the toaster was huge
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烤吐司機當時是大發明
11:51
because they used to make toast on open fires,
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因為在那之前要用火來烤
11:54
and it took a lot of time and attention.
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要花很多時間去顧
11:56
I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.
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我要給你們看這個東西，你們知道這是什麼吧。
12:02
They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.
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那時還沒發明電插座
12:05
So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.
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記得嗎，他們那時拉線到房子不是為了電
12:08
They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.
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而是為了燈，所以你的電器要接到
12:12
They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.
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每個房間天花板上的燈泡插座
12:15
And you'd plug it in there.
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你就把電器插到那插座上。
12:17
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World,
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如果曾去過廸士尼世界神奇樂園裡的 Carousel of Progress
12:20
you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.
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你會看到所有的電線是接到燈座上的。
12:24
All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb
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你要先把燈泡轉下來
12:28
if you wanted to plug in an appliance.
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再插上電器。
12:30
The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.
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接著洗衣機算是很大很大的事情。
12:35
Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.
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這東西才令大家趨之若鶩
12:38
Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.
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每個人都想要一台電動洗衣機。
12:41
On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.
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左手邊是肥皂水
12:43
And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.
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這裡有個轉輪 -- 這是旋轉馬達。
12:45
And it would clean your clothes.
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這東西會洗你的衣服。
12:47
This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here,
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這是清水區，你要把衣服拿到這裡
12:50
put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric ringer.
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然後你讓衣服通過這個電動圈圈。
12:54
And this was a big deal.
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在當時這是很重大的。
12:56
You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.
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因為它有點髒所以這東西通常會放在房子外的騎樓，
13:00
And you'd run a long cord into the house
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然後麻煩的是你要接一條很長的電線到房子裡面
13:03
where you could screw it into your light socket.
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特別是轉到燈泡插座上。
13:06
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:07
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation,
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事實上，這裡有一個重要的點
13:10
because they hadn't invented the off switch.
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因為那時"開關"還沒有發明
13:14
That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances --
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直到過了一陣子之後 -- 電器上的 "關" 才出現
13:17
because it didn't make any sense.
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因為那時不太合常理
13:19
I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.
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我是說，那時候你如果不用電器的話
13:22
So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.
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把插座轉下來就好了，沒必要擠一堆在燈座上。
13:25
That's what you did. You didn't turn it off.
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所以沒有所謂 "開/關" 的需要。
13:27
And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either,
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我之前也說過，那時還沒有發明電插座
13:31
so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device.
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所以洗衣機是很危險的設備
13:34
And there are --
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像是 -- 如果你研究一下
13:36
when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions
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你可以找到一些令人驚心動魄的陳述
13:39
of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices.
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有人的頭髮跟衣服被捲到機器裡面
13:44
And they couldn't yank the cord out
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然後他們沒辦法把電拔掉
13:46
because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
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因為插頭是轉到房子裡燈炮的插座上。
13:50
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:51
And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good.
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所以關不掉是個令人頭大的問題
13:56
And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors
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你可能會想把電插在燈座上面
14:00
to be plugging things into a light socket like this.
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我們的祖先們是不是太笨了。
14:03
But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors,
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不過，在我為我們的祖先辯解之前，
14:07
I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room.
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我想讓大家看看: 這是我的會議室。
14:10
This is a total kludge, if you ask me.
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如果你問我的話，這真是亂弄。
14:13
First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket --
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首先，這個裝得上下顛倒了，這個燈炮插座 --
14:16
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:17
and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
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插頭一直掉下來，所以我用膠帶貼著它。
14:19
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:21
This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one.
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別讓我開始，這還不是最糟的
14:25
This is what it looks like under my desk.
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這是我桌子底下的樣子
14:27
I took this picture just two days ago.
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我兩天前才照的相片。
14:30
So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
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所以你可以看到1908年到現在沒進步多少。
14:33
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:35
It's a total, total mess.
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糟透了。
14:37
And, you know, we think it's getting better,
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我們想事情可能越來越好，
14:40
but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
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可是你們有人試過自己裝802.11網路嗎？
14:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:45
I challenge you to try. It's very hard.
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喜歡挑戰的人可以試一下，很難。
14:47
I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science --
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我認識幾個專攻電腦的博士生 --
14:50
this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter)
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這個過程搞得他們真的欲哭無淚。
14:54
And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house.
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而且這還是假設你已經家裡有DSL了。
15:00
Try to get DSL installed in your house.
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試著在家裡裝 DSL。
15:03
The engineers who do it everyday can't do it.
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這些每天做的工程師也裝不起來
15:05
They have to -- typically, they come three times.
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他們要來家裡三次
15:08
And one friend of mine was telling me a story:
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我的一個朋友跟我講他的故事
15:10
not only did they get there and have to wait,
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不止要先等
15:13
but then the engineers, when they finally did get there,
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終於等到工程師三度光臨以後
15:16
for the third time, they had to call somebody.
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他們還要打電話找人
15:18
And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone
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他們還很高興那裡有免持聽筒的電話
15:21
because then they had to wait on hold for an hour
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因為他們要等上...
15:23
to talk to somebody to give them an access code
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足足一個小時
15:25
after they got there.
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才能拿到他們的存取碼。
15:27
So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
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所以我們自己也是很雜牌拼湊的啦。
15:31
By the way, DSL is a kludge.
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我認為，DSL像是個雜牌。
15:33
I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed
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這電話用的雙絞銅線
15:35
for the purpose it's being put to --
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不是設計用來傳輸資料的。
15:37
you know it's the whole thing --
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因此這整件事情
15:39
we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point.
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我們還在很早的草創期
15:43
Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush,
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因為回復力，如果你想到的是淘金熱的比喻，
15:47
then you'd be pretty depressed right now
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那你現在會很沮喪
15:49
because the last nugget of gold would be gone.
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因為最後一塊金子已經沒了。
15:52
But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget.
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好處是，有了創新就無所謂最後一塊金。
15:55
Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
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每個新的東西創造出兩個新問題與兩個新機會。
16:00
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are --
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如果你相信那個，你就會相信我們今天的處境是 --
16:04
this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge --
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我認為: 我相信我們今天的雜亂 --
16:08
and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web --
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我還沒談到網路上的使用者界面呢
16:12
but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff --
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然而因為這些雜亂跟可怕的東西，
16:15
we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet.
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網際網路就像是在1908年洗衣機的階段
16:19
That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it,
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這就是我們的所在，我們不怕頭髮被捲進去，
16:22
but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are.
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但是這混亂不明的時期
16:25
We're in 1908.
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我們在1908。
16:27
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996:
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如果你相信的話，像這樣的東西不會對你造成困擾。這是1996:
16:31
"All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble."
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"所有負面的麻煩加起來讓網路經驗變得不值一試"
16:35
1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb."
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1998: "亞馬遜.乾杯" 1999: "亞馬遜.炸彈"
16:41
My mom hates this picture.
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我媽很痛恨這張照片
16:43
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
16:47
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very,
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如果你真正相信這只是開頭
16:50
very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine,
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如果你相信這是1908年的洗衣機器
16:54
then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are.
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那你會無比的樂觀。而且我認為那是我們現今所在的地方。
16:57
And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us
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而且我想在我們前面的創新
17:00
than there is behind us.
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多過於我們已經創過的。
17:02
And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right.
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1917年喜而思電器城
17:07
This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917.
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這是1917年他們做的廣告
17:11
It says: "Use your electricity for more than light."
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上面說: "多用電而不只是燈。"
17:14
And I think that's where we are.
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而我想這是我們現在所在的
17:16
We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
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是非常非常早的階段。謝謝您們。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneerAs founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999.
Why you should listen
Jeff Bezos didn't invent online shopping, but he almost single-handedly turned it into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His Amazon.com began as a bookstore in 1994, and quickly expanded into dozens of product categories, forcing the world's biggest retailers to rethink their business models, and ultimately changing the way people shop.
But Amazon.com isn't just an internet success story. It's the standard by which all web businesses are now judged -- if not by their shareholders, then by their customers. Amazon set a high bar for reliability and customer service, and also introduced a wide range of online retail conventions -- from user reviews and one-click shopping to the tab interface and shopping cart icon -- so commonplace we no longer think of them as once having been innovations.
When the Internet bubble burst, Amazon.com took a hit with the other e-commerce pioneers, but the fundamentally sound company hung tough. It now sells more than $10 billion a year of goods, profitably, and its technology will influence the changes to business and media that will come next. Amazon recently released Kindle, a wireless digital reading device, giving the term "page turning" a completely new definition. Bezos, meanwhile, is one of the few early Web CEOs who still run the companies they founded. Outside of his work with Amazon, he recently founded Blue Origin, a space-flight startup.
Jeff Bezos | Speaker | TED.com