TEDSummit
Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it?
山姆‧哈里斯: 我們能打造不會失控的人工智慧？
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害怕超級人工智能嗎？你應該感到害怕，神經科學家、哲學家山姆哈里斯說——而且不只是從某種純理論角度出發。我們將會造出超人類機器，山姆哈里斯說，但我們尚未抓到問題，關於創造出一個會對待我們如同我們對待螞蟻的東西。
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopher
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I'm going to talk
about a failure of intuition
about a failure of intuition
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我要談一種我們很多人遭受的、直覺上的失誤。
00:15
that many of us suffer from.
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00:17
It's really a failure
to detect a certain kind of danger.
to detect a certain kind of danger.
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那其實是一種使你無法察覺到特定種類危險的失誤。
00:21
I'm going to describe a scenario
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我會描述一個情境
00:23
that I think is both terrifying
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是我認為很可怕
00:26
and likely to occur,
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而且很有機會發生的，
00:28
and that's not a good combination,
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這不是很好的組合，
00:30
as it turns out.
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一如預期。
00:32
And yet rather than be scared,
most of you will feel
most of you will feel
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然而比起感到害怕，大部分的人會覺得
00:34
that what I'm talking about
is kind of cool.
is kind of cool.
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我正在說的東西有點酷。
00:37
I'm going to describe
how the gains we make
how the gains we make
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我將會描述在人工智能領域我們的進展
00:40
in artificial intelligence
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00:42
could ultimately destroy us.
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如何能最終消滅我們。
00:43
And in fact, I think it's very difficult
to see how they won't destroy us
to see how they won't destroy us
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事實上，我認為很難看出他們為何不會消滅我們
或者驅使我們消滅自己。
00:47
or inspire us to destroy ourselves.
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00:49
And yet if you're anything like me,
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如果你是和我類似的人，
00:51
you'll find that it's fun
to think about these things.
to think about these things.
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你會發現思考這類事情很有趣。
00:53
And that response is part of the problem.
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那種反應也是問題的一部分。
00:57
OK? That response should worry you.
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對嗎？那種反應應該讓你感到擔心。
00:59
And if I were to convince you in this talk
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如果我是打算在這個裡演講說服你，
01:02
that we were likely
to suffer a global famine,
to suffer a global famine,
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我們很可能會遭受全球性的飢荒
01:06
either because of climate change
or some other catastrophe,
or some other catastrophe,
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無論是因為氣候變遷或某種大災難
01:09
and that your grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
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而你的孫子們或者孫子們的孫子們
01:12
are very likely to live like this,
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非常可能要這樣生活，
01:15
you wouldn't think,
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你不會覺得：
01:17
"Interesting.
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「有意思，
01:18
I like this TED Talk."
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我喜歡這個 TED 演講。」
01:21
Famine isn't fun.
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飢荒並不有趣。
01:23
Death by science fiction,
on the other hand, is fun,
on the other hand, is fun,
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另一方面來說，科幻式的死亡，是有趣的。
01:27
and one of the things that worries me most
about the development of AI at this point
about the development of AI at this point
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而現階段人工智能的發展讓最讓我擔心的是
01:31
is that we seem unable to marshal
an appropriate emotional response
an appropriate emotional response
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我們似乎無法組織出一個適當的情緒反應，
01:35
to the dangers that lie ahead.
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針對眼前的威脅。
01:37
I am unable to marshal this response,
and I'm giving this talk.
and I'm giving this talk.
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我無法組織出這個回應，所以我在這裡講這個。
01:42
It's as though we stand before two doors.
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就像我們站在兩扇門前面。
01:44
Behind door number one,
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一號門後面，
01:46
we stop making progress
in building intelligent machines.
in building intelligent machines.
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我們停止發展「製造有智能的機器」。
01:49
Our computer hardware and software
just stops getting better for some reason.
just stops getting better for some reason.
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我們的電腦硬體和軟體就因故停止變得更好。
01:53
Now take a moment
to consider why this might happen.
to consider why this might happen.
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現在花一點時間想想為什麼這會發生。
01:57
I mean, given how valuable
intelligence and automation are,
intelligence and automation are,
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我的意思是，人工智能和自動化如此有價值，
02:00
we will continue to improve our technology
if we are at all able to.
if we are at all able to.
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我們會持續改善我們的科技，只要我們有能力做。
02:05
What could stop us from doing this?
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有什麼東西能阻止我們這麼做呢？
02:07
A full-scale nuclear war?
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一場全面性的核子戰爭？
02:11
A global pandemic?
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一場全球性的流行病？
02:14
An asteroid impact?
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一次小行星撞擊地球？
02:17
Justin Bieber becoming
president of the United States?
president of the United States?
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小賈斯汀成為美國總統？
02:20
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:24
The point is, something would have to
destroy civilization as we know it.
destroy civilization as we know it.
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重點是：必須有什麼我們知道的東西會毀滅我們的文明。
02:29
You have to imagine
how bad it would have to be
how bad it would have to be
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你必須想像到底能有多糟
02:33
to prevent us from making
improvements in our technology
improvements in our technology
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才能阻止我們持續改善我們的科技，
02:37
permanently,
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永久地，
02:38
generation after generation.
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一代又一代人。
02:40
Almost by definition,
this is the worst thing
this is the worst thing
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幾乎從定義上，這就是
人類歷史上發生過的最糟的事。
02:42
that's ever happened in human history.
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所以唯一的替代選項，
02:44
So the only alternative,
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02:45
and this is what lies
behind door number two,
behind door number two,
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這是在二號門之後的東西，
是我們繼續改善我們的智能機器
02:48
is that we continue
to improve our intelligent machines
to improve our intelligent machines
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02:51
year after year after year.
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年復一年，年復一年。
02:53
At a certain point, we will build
machines that are smarter than we are,
machines that are smarter than we are,
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到某個時間點我們會造出比我們還聰明的機器，
02:58
and once we have machines
that are smarter than we are,
that are smarter than we are,
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而我們一旦造出比我們聰明的機器，
它們就會開始改善自己。
03:00
they will begin to improve themselves.
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03:02
And then we risk what
the mathematician IJ Good called
the mathematician IJ Good called
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然後我們承擔數學家 ij Good 稱為
「人工智能爆發」的風險，
03:05
an "intelligence explosion,"
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03:07
that the process could get away from us.
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那個過程會脫離我們的掌握。
03:10
Now, this is often caricatured,
as I have here,
as I have here,
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這時常被漫畫化，如我的這張圖，
03:12
as a fear that armies of malicious robots
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一種恐懼：充滿惡意的機械人軍團
03:16
will attack us.
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會攻擊我們。
03:17
But that isn't the most likely scenario.
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但這不是最可能發生的情境。
03:20
It's not that our machines
will become spontaneously malevolent.
will become spontaneously malevolent.
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並不是說我們的機器會變得自然地帶有敵意。
03:25
The concern is really
that we will build machines
that we will build machines
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問題在於我們將會造出
03:27
that are so much
more competent than we are
more competent than we are
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遠比我們更有競爭力的機器，
03:29
that the slightest divergence
between their goals and our own
between their goals and our own
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只要我們和他們的目標些微的歧異
03:33
could destroy us.
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就會讓我們被毀滅。
03:35
Just think about how we relate to ants.
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就想想我們和螞蟻的關係。
03:38
We don't hate them.
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我們不討厭牠們。
03:40
We don't go out of our way to harm them.
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我們不會特別去傷害牠們。
03:42
In fact, sometimes
we take pains not to harm them.
we take pains not to harm them.
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甚至有時我們為了不傷害牠們而承受痛苦。
03:44
We step over them on the sidewalk.
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我們在人行道跨越他們。
03:46
But whenever their presence
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但當他們的存在
03:48
seriously conflicts with one of our goals,
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和我們的目標嚴重衝突，
03:51
let's say when constructing
a building like this one,
a building like this one,
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譬如當我們要建造一棟和這裡一樣的建築物，
我們會毫無不安地除滅牠們。
03:53
we annihilate them without a qualm.
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03:56
The concern is that we will
one day build machines
one day build machines
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問題在於有一天我們會造出機器，
03:59
that, whether they're conscious or not,
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無論他們是有意識或的者沒有意識的，
04:02
could treat us with similar disregard.
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會對我們如螞蟻般的不予理會。
04:05
Now, I suspect this seems
far-fetched to many of you.
far-fetched to many of you.
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現在，我懷疑這對說法這裡大部分的人來說不著邊際。
04:09
I bet there are those of you who doubt
that superintelligent AI is possible,
that superintelligent AI is possible,
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我確信你們有些人懷疑超級人工智能出現的可能，
04:15
much less inevitable.
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更別說它必然出現。
04:17
But then you must find something wrong
with one of the following assumptions.
with one of the following assumptions.
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但接著你一點會發現接下來其中一個假設有點問題。
04:21
And there are only three of them.
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以下只有三個假設。
04:23
Intelligence is a matter of information
processing in physical systems.
processing in physical systems.
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智能是關於資訊在物質系統裡處理的過程。
04:29
Actually, this is a little bit more
than an assumption.
than an assumption.
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其實這個陳述稍微多於一個假設
04:31
We have already built
narrow intelligence into our machines,
narrow intelligence into our machines,
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我們已經在我們的機器裡安裝了有限的智能，
04:35
and many of these machines perform
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而很多這樣的機器已經表現出
04:37
at a level of superhuman
intelligence already.
intelligence already.
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某種程度的超人類智能。
04:40
And we know that mere matter
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而我們知道這個現象
04:43
can give rise to what is called
"general intelligence,"
"general intelligence,"
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可能導致被稱為「通用智能」的東西，
04:46
an ability to think flexibly
across multiple domains,
across multiple domains,
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一種能跨多個領域彈性地思考的能力，
04:49
because our brains have managed it. Right?
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因為我們的腦已經掌握了這個，對吧？
04:52
I mean, there's just atoms in here,
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我的意思是，裡面都只是原子，
04:56
and as long as we continue
to build systems of atoms
to build systems of atoms
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而只要我們繼續製造基於原子的系統
05:01
that display more and more
intelligent behavior,
intelligent behavior,
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越來越能表現智能的行為，
05:04
we will eventually,
unless we are interrupted,
unless we are interrupted,
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我們終究會，除非我們被打斷，
05:06
we will eventually
build general intelligence
build general intelligence
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我們終究會造出通用智能
05:10
into our machines.
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裝進我們的機器裡。
05:11
It's crucial to realize
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
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關鍵是理解到發展的速率無關緊要，
05:15
because any progress
is enough to get us into the end zone.
is enough to get us into the end zone.
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因為任何進展都足以帶我們到終結之境。
05:18
We don't need Moore's law to continue.
We don't need exponential progress.
We don't need exponential progress.
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我們不需要摩爾定律才能繼續。我們不需要指數型的發展。
05:22
We just need to keep going.
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我們只需要繼續前進。
05:25
The second assumption
is that we will keep going.
is that we will keep going.
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第二個假設是我們會繼續前進。
05:29
We will continue to improve
our intelligent machines.
our intelligent machines.
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我們會持續改善我們的智能機器。
05:33
And given the value of intelligence --
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而因為智能的價值——
05:37
I mean, intelligence is either
the source of everything we value
the source of everything we value
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我的意思是，智能是所有我們珍視的事物的源頭
05:40
or we need it to safeguard
everything we value.
everything we value.
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或者我們需要智能來保護我們珍視的事物。
05:43
It is our most valuable resource.
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智能是我們最珍貴的資源。
05:46
So we want to do this.
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所以我們想要這麼做。
05:47
We have problems
that we desperately need to solve.
that we desperately need to solve.
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我們有許多亟需解決的問題。
05:50
We want to cure diseases
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
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我們想要治癒疾病如阿茲海默症和癌症。
05:54
We want to understand economic systems.
We want to improve our climate science.
We want to improve our climate science.
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我們想要了解經濟系統。我們想要改進我們的氣候科學。
05:58
So we will do this, if we can.
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所以我們會這麼做，只要我們可以。
06:01
The train is already out of the station,
and there's no brake to pull.
and there's no brake to pull.
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火車已經出站，而沒有煞車可以拉。
06:05
Finally, we don't stand
on a peak of intelligence,
on a peak of intelligence,
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最後一點，我們不站在智能的巔峰，
06:11
or anywhere near it, likely.
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或者根本不在那附近。
06:13
And this really is the crucial insight.
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而這真的是一種重要的洞察。
06:15
This is what makes
our situation so precarious,
our situation so precarious,
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正是這個讓我們的處境如此危險可疑，
06:18
and this is what makes our intuitions
about risk so unreliable.
about risk so unreliable.
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這也讓我們對風險的直覺變得很不可靠。
06:23
Now, just consider the smartest person
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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現在，想想這世界上活過的最聰明的人。
06:26
On almost everyone's shortlist here
is John von Neumann.
is John von Neumann.
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每個人的清單上幾乎都會有 約翰·馮·諾伊曼 。
06:30
I mean, the impression that von Neumann
made on the people around him,
made on the people around him,
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我是指， 馮·諾伊曼 對他周圍的人造成的印象，
06:33
and this included the greatest
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
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而這包括和他同時代最棒的數學家和物理學家，
06:37
is fairly well-documented.
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被好好地記錄了。
06:39
If only half the stories
about him are half true,
about him are half true,
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只要有一半關於他的故事的一半是真的，
06:43
there's no question
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那毫無疑問
06:44
he's one of the smartest people
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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他是世界上活過的最聰明的人之一。
06:47
So consider the spectrum of intelligence.
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所以考慮智能的頻譜。
06:50
Here we have John von Neumann.
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約翰·馮·諾伊曼 在這裡。
06:53
And then we have you and me.
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然後你和我在這裡。
06:56
And then we have a chicken.
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然後雞在這裡。
06:57
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:59
Sorry, a chicken.
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抱歉，雞應該在那裡。
07:00
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:01
There's no reason for me to make this talk
more depressing than it needs to be.
more depressing than it needs to be.
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我實在無意把這個把這個演講弄得比它本身更讓人感到沮喪。
07:05
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:08
It seems overwhelmingly likely, however,
that the spectrum of intelligence
that the spectrum of intelligence
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智能的頻譜似乎勢不可擋地
07:11
extends much further
than we currently conceive,
than we currently conceive,
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往比我們能理解的更遠的地方延伸，
07:15
and if we build machines
that are more intelligent than we are,
that are more intelligent than we are,
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如果我們造出比我們更有智能的機器，
07:19
they will very likely
explore this spectrum
explore this spectrum
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他們很可能會探索這個頻譜，
07:21
in ways that we can't imagine,
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以我們無法想像的方式，
07:23
and exceed us in ways
that we can't imagine.
that we can't imagine.
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然後超越我們以我們無法想像的方式。
07:27
And it's important to recognize that
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
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重要的是認識到這說法僅因速度的優勢即為真。
07:31
Right? So imagine if we just built
a superintelligent AI
a superintelligent AI
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對吧？請想像如果我們造出了一個超級人工智能
07:36
that was no smarter
than your average team of researchers
than your average team of researchers
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它不比你一般在史丹佛或者 MIT 遇到的研究團隊聰明。
07:39
at Stanford or MIT.
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電子電路作用的速率比起生化作用快一百萬倍，
07:42
Well, electronic circuits
function about a million times faster
function about a million times faster
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07:45
than biochemical ones,
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07:46
so this machine should think
about a million times faster
about a million times faster
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所以這個機器思考應該比製造它的心智快一百萬倍。
07:49
than the minds that built it.
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07:51
So you set it running for a week,
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如果你設定讓它運行一星期，
07:53
and it will perform 20,000 years
of human-level intellectual work,
of human-level intellectual work,
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他會執行人類等級的智能要花兩萬年的工作，
07:58
week after week after week.
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一週接著一週接著一週。
08:01
How could we even understand,
much less constrain,
much less constrain,
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我們如何可能理解，較不嚴格地說，
08:04
a mind making this sort of progress?
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一個達成如此進展的心智？
08:08
The other thing that's worrying, frankly,
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另一個另人擔心的事，老實說，
08:11
is that, imagine the best case scenario.
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是想像最好的情況。
08:16
So imagine we hit upon a design
of superintelligent AI
of superintelligent AI
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想像我們想到一個沒有安全顧慮的超級人工智能的設計
08:20
that has no safety concerns.
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08:21
We have the perfect design
the first time around.
the first time around.
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我們第一次就做出了完美的設計。
08:24
It's as though we've been handed an oracle
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如同我們被給予了一個神諭，
08:27
that behaves exactly as intended.
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完全照我們的預期地動作。
08:29
Well, this machine would be
the perfect labor-saving device.
the perfect labor-saving device.
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這個機器會是完美的人力節約裝置。
08:33
It can design the machine
that can build the machine
that can build the machine
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它能設計一個機器，那機器能製造出能做任何人工的機器，
08:36
that can do any physical work,
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08:37
powered by sunlight,
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太陽能驅動，
08:39
more or less for the cost
of raw materials.
of raw materials.
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幾乎只需要原料的成本。
08:42
So we're talking about
the end of human drudgery.
the end of human drudgery.
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所以我們是在談人類苦役的終結。
08:45
We're also talking about the end
of most intellectual work.
of most intellectual work.
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我們也是在談大部分的智力工作的終結。
08:49
So what would apes like ourselves
do in this circumstance?
do in this circumstance?
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像我們一樣的猩猩在這種情況下會做什麼？
08:52
Well, we'd be free to play Frisbee
and give each other massages.
and give each other massages.
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我們可能可以自由地玩飛盤和互相按摩。
08:57
Add some LSD and some
questionable wardrobe choices,
questionable wardrobe choices,
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加上一點迷幻藥和可議的服裝選擇，
09:00
and the whole world
could be like Burning Man.
could be like Burning Man.
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整個世界都可以像在過火人祭典。
09:02
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:06
Now, that might sound pretty good,
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那聽起來也許很不錯，
09:09
but ask yourself what would happen
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但請問，在我們目前的經濟和政治秩序下，會發生什麼事情？
09:11
under our current economic
and political order?
and political order?
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09:14
It seems likely that we would witness
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我們很可能會見證
09:16
a level of wealth inequality
and unemployment
and unemployment
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一種我們從未見過的財富不均和失業程度。
09:21
that we have never seen before.
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缺乏一種意願來把這份新財富馬上
09:22
Absent a willingness
to immediately put this new wealth
to immediately put this new wealth
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09:25
to the service of all humanity,
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放在服務全人類，
09:27
a few trillionaires could grace
the covers of our business magazines
the covers of our business magazines
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少數幾個萬億富翁能登上我們的財經雜誌
09:31
while the rest of the world
would be free to starve.
would be free to starve.
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而其他人可以自由地選擇挨餓。
09:34
And what would the Russians
or the Chinese do
or the Chinese do
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而俄國和中國會怎麼做？
09:36
if they heard that some company
in Silicon Valley
in Silicon Valley
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當他們聽說矽谷的某個公司
09:39
was about to deploy a superintelligent AI?
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即將部署一個超級人工智能，
09:42
This machine would be capable
of waging war,
of waging war,
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這個機器能夠發動戰爭，
09:44
whether terrestrial or cyber,
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無論是領土侵略或者網路電子戰，
09:47
with unprecedented power.
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以前所未見的威力。
09:50
This is a winner-take-all scenario.
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這是個贏者全拿的劇本。
09:52
To be six months ahead
of the competition here
of the competition here
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在這個競爭領先六個月
09:55
is to be 500,000 years ahead,
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等於領先五十萬年，
09:57
at a minimum.
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最少。
09:59
So it seems that even mere rumors
of this kind of breakthrough
of this kind of breakthrough
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所以即使僅僅是這種突破的謠言
10:04
could cause our species to go berserk.
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都能使我們這個種族走向狂暴。
10:06
Now, one of the most frightening things,
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現在，最讓人驚恐的事情，
10:09
in my view, at this moment,
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在我的看法，在這個時刻，
10:12
are the kinds of things
that AI researchers say
that AI researchers say
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是人工智慧研究者說的那類話
10:16
when they want to be reassuring.
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當他們試著表現得讓人安心。
10:19
And the most common reason
we're told not to worry is time.
we're told not to worry is time.
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而最常用來告訴我們現在不要擔心的理由是時間。
10:22
This is all a long way off,
don't you know.
don't you know.
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這還有很長的路要走，你不知道嗎，
10:24
This is probably 50 or 100 years away.
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起碼還要 50 到 100 年。
10:27
One researcher has said,
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一個研究人員曾說，
10:29
"Worrying about AI safety
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「憂心人工智慧安全
10:30
is like worrying
about overpopulation on Mars."
about overpopulation on Mars."
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如同憂心火星人口爆炸。」
10:34
This is the Silicon Valley version
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這是矽谷版本的
10:35
of "don't worry your
pretty little head about it."
pretty little head about it."
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「別杞人憂天。」
（笑聲）
10:38
(Laughter)
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10:39
No one seems to notice
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似乎沒人注意到
10:41
that referencing the time horizon
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以時間當參考
10:44
is a total non sequitur.
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是一個不合理的推論。
10:46
If intelligence is just a matter
of information processing,
of information processing,
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如果智能只是關於資訊的處理，
10:49
and we continue to improve our machines,
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而我們持續改善我們的機器，
10:52
we will produce
some form of superintelligence.
some form of superintelligence.
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我們會製作出某種形式的超級智能。
10:56
And we have no idea
how long it will take us
how long it will take us
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而且我們不知道要花我們多長的時間
11:00
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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來創造安全地這麼做的條件。
11:04
Let me say that again.
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讓我再說一次，
11:05
We have no idea how long it will take us
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我們不知道要花我們多長的時間
11:09
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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來創造安全地這麼做的條件。
11:12
And if you haven't noticed,
50 years is not what it used to be.
50 years is not what it used to be.
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而且如果你還沒注意到， 50 年已經不像以前的概念。
11:16
This is 50 years in months.
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這是 50 年以月來表示
11:18
This is how long we've had the iPhone.
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這是我們有了 iPhone 的時間。
11:21
This is how long "The Simpsons"
has been on television.
has been on television.
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這是《辛普森家庭》在電視上播映的時間。
11:24
Fifty years is not that much time
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50 年不是那麼長的時間
11:27
to meet one of the greatest challenges
our species will ever face.
our species will ever face.
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來面對對我們這個種族來說最巨大的挑戰之一。
11:31
Once again, we seem to be failing
to have an appropriate emotional response
to have an appropriate emotional response
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再一次說，我們似乎無法產生適當的情緒反應
11:35
to what we have every reason
to believe is coming.
to believe is coming.
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對應我們有所有的理由相信將發生的事。
11:38
The computer scientist Stuart Russell
has a nice analogy here.
has a nice analogy here.
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資訊科學家斯圖亞特·羅素有個很好的比喻。
11:42
He said, imagine that we received
a message from an alien civilization,
a message from an alien civilization,
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他說，想像我們收到一則外星文明的訊息，
11:47
which read:
236
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寫道：
11:49
"People of Earth,
237
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「地球的人們，
11:50
we will arrive on your planet in 50 years.
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我們 50 年內會到達你們的星球。
11:53
Get ready."
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作好準備。」
11:55
And now we're just counting down
the months until the mothership lands?
the months until the mothership lands?
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而現在我們只是在倒數外星母艦還剩幾個月登陸？
11:59
We would feel a little
more urgency than we do.
more urgency than we do.
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我們會比我們現在稍微感到緊迫。
12:04
Another reason we're told not to worry
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另一個我們被告知不用擔心的原因
12:06
is that these machines
can't help but share our values
can't help but share our values
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是這些機器不得不和我們有一樣的價值觀
12:09
because they will be literally
extensions of ourselves.
extensions of ourselves.
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因為他們字面上只是我們的延伸。
12:12
They'll be grafted onto our brains,
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它們會被植入我們的大腦裡，
12:14
and we'll essentially
become their limbic systems.
become their limbic systems.
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而我們基本上變成他們大腦的邊緣系統。
12:17
Now take a moment to consider
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現在用一點時間想想
12:18
that the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
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這最安全而且唯一謹慎的往前的路，
12:21
recommended,
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被推薦的，
12:23
is to implant this technology
directly into our brains.
directly into our brains.
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是將這個科技植入我們的腦內。
12:26
Now, this may in fact be the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
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這也許的確是最安全而且唯一謹慎的往前的路，
12:30
but usually one's safety concerns
about a technology
about a technology
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但通常科技的安全性問題對一個人來說
12:33
have to be pretty much worked out
before you stick it inside your head.
before you stick it inside your head.
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應該在把東西插到你腦袋裡之前就該大部分解決了。
12:36
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:38
The deeper problem is that
building superintelligent AI on its own
building superintelligent AI on its own
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更深層的問題是，打造超級人工智能本身
12:44
seems likely to be easier
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似乎相對容易於
12:45
than building superintelligent AI
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「打造超級人工智慧
12:47
and having the completed neuroscience
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而且擁有完整的神經科學
12:49
that allows us to seamlessly
integrate our minds with it.
integrate our minds with it.
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讓我們可以把我們的心智無縫與之整合」。
12:52
And given that the companies
and governments doing this work
and governments doing this work
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而假設正在從事人工智能研發的許多公司和政府
12:56
are likely to perceive themselves
as being in a race against all others,
as being in a race against all others,
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很可能察覺他們正在和所有其他人競爭，
12:59
given that to win this race
is to win the world,
is to win the world,
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假設贏了這個競爭就是贏得世界，
13:02
provided you don't destroy it
in the next moment,
in the next moment,
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假設你在下一刻不會毀了世界，
13:05
then it seems likely
that whatever is easier to do
that whatever is easier to do
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那麼很可能比較容易做的事
13:08
will get done first.
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就會先被做完。
13:10
Now, unfortunately,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
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現在，很不幸地，我沒有這個問題的解決方法，
除了建議我們更多人思考這個問題。
13:13
apart from recommending
that more of us think about it.
that more of us think about it.
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我想我們需要類似曼哈頓計畫的東西，
13:16
I think we need something
like a Manhattan Project
like a Manhattan Project
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針對人工智能這個課題。
13:18
on the topic of artificial intelligence.
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不是因為我們不可避免地要這麼做而做，
13:20
Not to build it, because I think
we'll inevitably do that,
we'll inevitably do that,
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而是試著理解如何避免軍備競賽
13:23
but to understand
how to avoid an arms race
how to avoid an arms race
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13:26
and to build it in a way
that is aligned with our interests.
that is aligned with our interests.
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而且用一種符合我們利益的方式打造之。
13:30
When you're talking
about superintelligent AI
about superintelligent AI
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當你在談論能夠對其本身造成改變的超級人工智能
13:32
that can make changes to itself,
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13:34
it seems that we only have one chance
to get the initial conditions right,
to get the initial conditions right,
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這似乎說明我們只有一次機會把初始條件做對，
13:39
and even then we will need to absorb
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而且我們會必須承受
13:41
the economic and political
consequences of getting them right.
consequences of getting them right.
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為了將它們做對的經濟和政治的後果
13:45
But the moment we admit
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但一旦我們承認
13:47
that information processing
is the source of intelligence,
is the source of intelligence,
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資訊處理是智能的源頭，
13:52
that some appropriate computational system
is what the basis of intelligence is,
is what the basis of intelligence is,
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某些適當的電腦系統是智能的基礎，
13:58
and we admit that we will improve
these systems continuously,
these systems continuously,
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而且我們承認我們會持續改進這些系統，
14:03
and we admit that the horizon
of cognition very likely far exceeds
of cognition very likely far exceeds
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而且我們承認認知的極限有可能遠遠超越
14:07
what we currently know,
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我們目前所知，
14:10
then we have to admit
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然後我們必須承認
14:11
that we are in the process
of building some sort of god.
of building some sort of god.
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我們正在打造某種神明的過程裡
14:15
Now would be a good time
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現在是個好時機
14:17
to make sure it's a god we can live with.
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來確保那是個我們能夠與之共存的神明。
14:20
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家。
14:21
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopherSam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Why you should listen
Sam Harris is the author of five New York Times bestsellers. His books include The End of Faith, Letter to a Christian Nation, The Moral Landscape, Free Will, Lying, Waking Up and Islam and the Future of Tolerance (with Maajid Nawaz). The End of Faith won the 2005 PEN Award for Nonfiction. Harris's writing and public lectures cover a wide range of topics -- neuroscience, moral philosophy, religion, spirituality, violence, human reasoning -- but generally focus on how a growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Harris's work has been published in more than 20 languages and has been discussed in the New York Times, Time, Scientific American, Nature, Newsweek, Rolling Stone and many other journals. He has written for the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, The Economist, The Times (London), the Boston Globe, The Atlantic, The Annals of Neurology and elsewhere. Harris also regularly hosts a popular podcast.
Harris received a degree in philosophy from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in neuroscience from UCLA.
Sam Harris | Speaker | TED.com