TEDxMidAtlantic
Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
Ari Wallach: 3 måder at planlægge (meget) langsigtet
Filmed:
Readability: 3.6
2,384,369 views
Vi tager i øget grad beslutninger baseret på kortsigtede mål og gevinster -- en tilgang der gør fremtiden mere uvis og mindre sikker. Hvordan kan vi lære at tænke på og planlægge for en bedre fremtid på den lange-sigt ... som, børnebørn-skala lang sigt? Ari Wallach deler tre taktikker for at tænke udover det øjeblikkelige.
Ari Wallach - Futurist
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I've been "futuring,"
which is a term I made up --
which is a term I made up --
0
800
3376
Så jeg har "fremudsagt,"
hvilket er et udtryk jeg fandt på --
hvilket er et udtryk jeg fandt på --
00:16
(Laughter)
1
4200
1256
(Latter)
00:17
about three seconds ago.
2
5480
1216
for omkring tre sekunder siden.
00:18
I've been futuring for about 20 years,
3
6720
2816
Jeg har fremudsagt for omkring 20 år,
00:21
and when I first started,
I would sit down with people,
I would sit down with people,
4
9560
3336
og da jeg først begyndte,
ville jeg sætte mig ned med folk,
ville jeg sætte mig ned med folk,
00:24
and say, "Hey,
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
5
12920
2896
og sige,
"Hej, lad os tale 10, 20 år frem."
"Hej, lad os tale 10, 20 år frem."
00:27
And they'd say, "Great."
6
15840
1776
Og de ville sige, "Fedt."
00:29
And I've been seeing that time horizon
7
17640
2496
Og jeg har set den tidshorisont
00:32
get shorter and shorter
8
20160
2056
blive kortere og kortere
00:34
and shorter,
9
22240
1616
og kortere,
00:35
so much so that I met
with a CEO two months ago
with a CEO two months ago
10
23880
3376
så meget, at jeg mødtes med en CEO
to måneder siden,
to måneder siden,
00:39
and I said -- we started
our initial conversation.
our initial conversation.
11
27280
2376
og jeg sagde --
vi er påbegyndt vores første samtale.
vi er påbegyndt vores første samtale.
00:41
He goes, "I love what you do.
I want to talk about the next six months."
I want to talk about the next six months."
12
29680
3736
Han siger, "Jeg elsker hvad du gør.
Jeg vil gerne tale om de næste seks måneder."
Jeg vil gerne tale om de næste seks måneder."
00:45
(Laughter)
13
33440
1600
(Latter)
00:48
We have a lot of problems
that we are facing.
that we are facing.
14
36040
3136
Vi står overfor en masse problemer.
00:51
These are civilizational-scale problems.
15
39200
2720
Disse er problemer på civilisatorisk-skala.
00:55
The issue though is,
16
43520
1440
Problemet er dog,
00:57
we can't solve them
17
45600
1696
at vi ikke kan løse dem
00:59
using the mental models
that we use right now
that we use right now
18
47320
2576
ved at bruge de mentale modeller
vi bruger lige nu
vi bruger lige nu
01:01
to try and solve these problems.
19
49920
1576
for at prøve at løse disse problemer.
01:03
Yes, a lot of great
technical work is being done,
technical work is being done,
20
51520
2656
En masse teknisk arbejde bliver lavet,
01:06
but there is a problem that
we need to solve for a priori, before,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
21
54200
5376
men der er et problem vi bliver nødt
til at løse på forhånd,
til at løse på forhånd,
01:11
if we want to really
move the needle on those big problems.
move the needle on those big problems.
22
59600
2800
hvis vi gerne vil flytte på
de store problemer.
de store problemer.
01:15
"Short-termism."
23
63160
1736
"Kortsigtethed."
01:16
Right? There's no marches.
There's no bracelets.
There's no bracelets.
24
64920
2456
Ikke? Der er ingen marcher.
Der er ingen armbånd.
Der er ingen armbånd.
01:19
There's no petitions that you can sign
to be against short-termism.
to be against short-termism.
25
67400
3856
Der er ingen andragender du kan tegne
for at være imod kortsigtethed.
for at være imod kortsigtethed.
01:23
I tried to put one up, and no one signed.
26
71280
2816
Jeg prøvede at sætte en op,
men ingen underskrev.
men ingen underskrev.
01:26
It was weird.
27
74120
1216
Det var underligt.
01:27
(Laughter)
28
75360
1200
(Latter)
01:29
But it prevents us from doing so much.
29
77280
3016
Men det forhindrer os i at gøre så meget.
01:32
Short-termism, for many reasons,
30
80320
2696
Kortsigtethed, af mange årsager,
01:35
has pervaded every
nook and cranny of our reality.
nook and cranny of our reality.
31
83040
2896
har gennemtrængt hver en afkrog
af vores virkelighed.
af vores virkelighed.
01:37
I just want you to take a second
32
85960
1576
Jeg vil gerne ha at i tager et sekund
01:39
and just think about an issue
that you're thinking, working on.
that you're thinking, working on.
33
87560
3816
og bare tænke på et problem
i overvejer at arbejde på.
i overvejer at arbejde på.
01:43
It could be personal, it could be at work
34
91400
1976
Det kan være personligt,
det kan være på arbejdet
det kan være på arbejdet
01:45
or it could be
move-the-needle world stuff,
move-the-needle world stuff,
35
93400
2056
eller det kan være
verdenssituations problemer,
verdenssituations problemer,
01:47
and think about
how far out you tend to think
how far out you tend to think
36
95480
2336
og tænk på hvor langt ud
i kommer til at tænke,
i kommer til at tænke,
01:49
about the solution set for that.
37
97840
2520
omkring løsningen på det.
01:53
Because short-termism prevents the CEO
38
101920
4416
Fordi kortsigtethed forhindrer CEO'en
01:58
from buying really
expensive safety equipment.
expensive safety equipment.
39
106360
2640
i at købe virkelig dyrt sikkerhedsudstyr.
02:01
It'll hurt the bottom line.
40
109920
1976
Det vil gøre ondt på bundlinjen.
02:03
So we get the Deepwater Horizon.
41
111920
1800
Så vi får Dybvands Horisonten.
02:06
Short-termism prevents teachers
42
114400
2736
Kortsigtethed forhindrer lærere
02:09
from spending quality
one-on-one time with their students.
one-on-one time with their students.
43
117160
3536
i at bruge en-til-en kvalitetstid
med deres elever.
med deres elever.
02:12
So right now in America,
44
120720
2136
Så lige nu i Amerika,
02:14
a high school student
drops out every 26 seconds.
drops out every 26 seconds.
45
122880
2840
dropper en high school elev ud hvert 26. sekund.
02:19
Short-termism prevents Congress --
46
127360
2736
Kortsigtethed forhindrer Kongressen --
02:22
sorry if there's anyone
in here from Congress --
in here from Congress --
47
130120
2616
undskyld hvis der er nogen her
fra Kongressen --
fra Kongressen --
02:24
(Laughter)
48
132760
1536
(Latter)
02:26
or not really that sorry --
49
134320
2056
eller ikke så meget --
02:28
(Laughter)
50
136400
2216
(Latter)
02:30
from putting money
into a real infrastructure bill.
into a real infrastructure bill.
51
138640
3176
fra at putte penge ind i et rigtigt
infrastrukturalt lovforslag.
infrastrukturalt lovforslag.
02:33
So what we get
is the I-35W bridge collapse
is the I-35W bridge collapse
52
141840
2616
Så hvad vi får er I-35W bro-kollapset
02:36
over the Mississippi a few years ago,
53
144480
1816
over Misissippi-floden et par år tilbage,
02:38
13 killed.
54
146320
1200
13 døde.
02:40
It wasn't always like this.
We did the Panama Canal.
We did the Panama Canal.
55
148760
2760
Det har ikke altid været sådan her.
Vi byggede Panama Kanalen.
Vi byggede Panama Kanalen.
02:44
We pretty much
have eradicated global polio.
have eradicated global polio.
56
152600
2256
Vi har stort set udryddet global polio.
02:46
We did the transcontinental railroad,
the Marshall Plan.
the Marshall Plan.
57
154880
2800
Vi byggede den trans kontinentale jernbane,
Marshall Planen.
Marshall Planen.
02:50
And it's not just big, physical
infrastructure problems and issues.
infrastructure problems and issues.
58
158560
3800
Og det er ikke bare store, fysiske
infrastruktur problemer og udfordringer.
infrastruktur problemer og udfordringer.
02:54
Women's suffrage, the right to vote.
59
162920
1896
Kvinders valgret, retten til at stemme.
02:56
But in our short-termist time,
60
164840
2776
Men i vores kortsigtetheds tid,
02:59
where everything seems to happen right now
61
167640
2496
hvor alting virker til at ske lige nu,
03:02
and we can only think out
past the next tweet or timeline post,
past the next tweet or timeline post,
62
170160
4496
og hvor vi kun kan tænke frem til
det næste tweet eller forside-opslag,
det næste tweet eller forside-opslag,
03:06
we get hyper-reactionary.
63
174680
2016
så bliver hyper-reaktionær.
03:08
So what do we do?
64
176720
1280
Så hvad gør vi?
03:10
We take people who are fleeing
their war-torn country,
their war-torn country,
65
178880
3256
Vi tager folk som flygter fra deres
krigs-hærdede land,
krigs-hærdede land,
03:14
and we go after them.
66
182160
1256
og vi går efter dem.
03:15
We take low-level drug offenders,
and we put them away for life.
and we put them away for life.
67
183440
3616
Vi tager små kriminelle stof forbrydere
og sætter dem væk på livstid.
og sætter dem væk på livstid.
03:19
And then we build McMansions
without even thinking
without even thinking
68
187080
2376
Og så bygger vi kæmpe Mansions
uden overhovedet at tænke
uden overhovedet at tænke
03:21
about how people are going
to get between them and their job.
to get between them and their job.
69
189480
2866
på hvordan folk nogensinde får
råd til dem med deres job.
råd til dem med deres job.
03:24
It's a quick buck.
70
192370
1480
Det er en hurtig sorteper.
03:26
Now, the reality is,
for a lot of these problems,
for a lot of these problems,
71
194760
2336
Realiteten er,
at for mange af disse problemer,
at for mange af disse problemer,
03:29
there are some technical fixes,
72
197120
2776
der er nogle tekniske løsninger,
03:31
a lot of them.
73
199920
1216
mange af dem.
03:33
I call these technical fixes
sandbag strategies.
sandbag strategies.
74
201160
3536
Jeg kalder disse tekniske løsninger,
sandpose strategier.
sandpose strategier.
03:36
So you know there's a storm coming,
75
204720
1696
Så i ved at der er en storm på vej,
03:38
the levee is broken,
no one's put any money into it,
no one's put any money into it,
76
206440
2736
dæmningen er ødelagt,
ingen har kastet penge efter den,
ingen har kastet penge efter den,
03:41
you surround your home with sandbags.
77
209200
1816
i omgiver jeres hjem med sandposer.
03:43
And guess what? It works.
78
211040
1800
Og gæt hvad? Det virker.
03:46
Storm goes away,
the water level goes down,
the water level goes down,
79
214600
2016
Stormen forsvinder,
vandstanden går ned,
vandstanden går ned,
03:48
you get rid of the sandbags,
80
216640
1376
i skiller jer af med sandposerne,
03:50
and you do this storm
after storm after storm.
after storm after storm.
81
218040
2520
og i gør dette storm efter storm
efter storm.
efter storm.
03:53
And here's the insidious thing.
82
221920
1480
Og her er den lumske ting.
03:56
A sandbag strategy
83
224120
1896
En sandpose strategi
03:58
can get you reelected.
84
226040
1200
kan få dig genvalgt.
04:00
A sandbag strategy
85
228320
1376
En sandpose strategi
04:01
can help you make your quarterly numbers.
86
229720
1960
kan hjælpe dig med at nå dine kvartal numre.
04:06
Now, if we want to move forward
87
234240
2976
Så, hvis du gerne vil bevæge dig fremad
04:09
into a different future
than the one we have right now,
than the one we have right now,
88
237240
2776
ind i en anden fremtid end den vi har lige nu,
04:12
because I don't think we've hit --
89
240040
2056
for jeg tror ikke vi har ramt --
04:14
2016 is not peak civilization.
90
242120
1976
2016 er ikke top civilisationen.
04:16
(Laughter)
91
244120
1336
(Latter)
04:17
There's some more we can do.
92
245480
1776
Der er mere vi kan gøre.
04:19
But my argument is that unless we shift
our mental models and our mental maps
our mental models and our mental maps
93
247280
4616
Men mit argument er, at medmindre vi
ændre vores mentale modeller og vores mentale kort
ændre vores mentale modeller og vores mentale kort
04:23
on how we think about the short,
94
251920
2336
på hvordan vi tænker om kortsigtet,
04:26
it's not going to happen.
95
254280
1696
så sker det ikke.
04:28
So what I've developed
is something called "longpath,"
is something called "longpath,"
96
256000
2976
Så hvad jeg har udviklet er noget
der hedder "langbane,"
der hedder "langbane,"
04:31
and it's a practice.
97
259000
1736
og det er en øvelse.
04:32
And longpath isn't
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
98
260760
3936
Og langbane er ikke en slags
én gang-færdig øvelse.
én gang-færdig øvelse.
04:36
I'm sure everyone here
at some point has done an off-site
at some point has done an off-site
99
264720
2696
Jeg er sikker på, at alle her
på ét tidspunkt har lavet et off-site
på ét tidspunkt har lavet et off-site
04:39
with a lot of Post-It notes
and whiteboards,
and whiteboards,
100
267440
2096
med en masse Post-It noter og
tavler,
tavler,
04:41
and you do --
101
269560
2896
og i laver --
04:44
no offense to the consultants
in here who do that --
in here who do that --
102
272480
2456
ingen fornærmelse mod konsulenterne
herinde som gør det --
herinde som gør det --
04:46
and you do a long-term plan,
103
274960
1616
og i laver en lang-sigtet plan,
04:48
and then two weeks later,
everyone forgets about it.
everyone forgets about it.
104
276600
2440
og to uger efter,
glemmer alle om den.
glemmer alle om den.
04:52
Right? Or a week later.
If you're lucky, three months.
If you're lucky, three months.
105
280640
3200
Ikke? Eller en uge efter.
Hvis i er heldige, tre måneder.
Hvis i er heldige, tre måneder.
04:56
It's a practice because
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
106
284840
3576
Det er en øvelse for det er ikke
nødvendigvis en ting i gør.
nødvendigvis en ting i gør.
05:00
It's a process where you have
to revisit different ways of thinking
to revisit different ways of thinking
107
288440
3776
Det er en proces hvor du bliver nødt til
at blive ved med at tænke i forskellige baner
at blive ved med at tænke i forskellige baner
05:04
for every major decision
that you're working on.
that you're working on.
108
292240
2416
for hvér større beslutning du arbejder på.
05:06
So I want to go through
those three ways of thinking.
those three ways of thinking.
109
294680
2480
Så jeg vil gerne gennemgå disse tre måder
at tænke på.
at tænke på.
05:09
So the first: transgenerational thinking.
110
297960
2560
Den første: transgenerationel tænkning.
05:13
I love the philosophers:
111
301360
2216
Jeg elsker filosofferne:
05:15
Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.
112
303600
1816
Plato, Sokrates, Habermas, Heidegger.
05:17
I was raised on them.
113
305440
1200
Jeg er opdraget om dem.
05:20
But they all did one thing
114
308040
1936
Men de gjorde alle én ting
05:22
that didn't actually seem like a big deal
115
310000
1976
der faktisk ikke virkede som noget særligt
05:24
until I really started
kind of looking into this.
kind of looking into this.
116
312000
2336
indtil jeg virkelig begyndte
at grave ned i det.
at grave ned i det.
05:26
And they all took,
117
314360
1816
Og de tog alle,
05:28
as a unit of measure
for their entire reality
for their entire reality
118
316200
2896
som en måleenhed for hele deres virkelighed
05:31
of what it meant to be virtuous and good,
119
319120
1953
for hvad det betød at værre dydig og god,
05:33
the single lifespan,
120
321880
1200
den ene livstid,
05:35
from birth to death.
121
323960
1200
for fødsel til død.
05:37
But here's a problem with these issues:
122
325640
2056
Men her er et problem med
disse ploblemstillinger:
disse ploblemstillinger:
05:39
they stack up on top of us,
123
327720
1416
de stabler sig oven på os,
05:41
because the only way we know
how to do something good in the world
how to do something good in the world
124
329160
3136
fordi den eneste måde vi ved
hvordan man gør noget godt i verden
hvordan man gør noget godt i verden
05:44
is if we do it between
our birth and our death.
our birth and our death.
125
332320
2216
er hvis vi gør det imellem vores fødsel
og død
og død
05:46
That's what we're programmed to do.
126
334560
1696
Det er hvad vi er programmeret til.
05:48
If you go to the self-help section
in any bookstore,
in any bookstore,
127
336280
2456
Hvis du går til selv-hjælp sektionen
i enhver bog butik,
i enhver bog butik,
05:50
it's all about you.
128
338760
1240
det er alt omkring dig.
05:53
Which is great,
129
341400
1856
Hvilket er godt,
05:55
unless you're dealing
with some of these major issues.
with some of these major issues.
130
343280
2920
medmindre du har med nogle af disse
store problemstillinger at gøre.
store problemstillinger at gøre.
05:59
And so with transgenerational thinking,
131
347960
2440
Så med transgenerationel tænknin,
06:03
which is really kind of
transgenerational ethics,
transgenerational ethics,
132
351280
2656
hvilket virkelig er transgenerationel etik,
06:05
you're able to expand
how you think about these problems,
how you think about these problems,
133
353960
3616
du er istand til at udvide hvordan du
tænker omkring disse problemer,
tænker omkring disse problemer,
06:09
what is your role
in helping to solve them.
in helping to solve them.
134
357600
2760
hvad er din rolle
i at hjælpe med at løse dem.
i at hjælpe med at løse dem.
06:13
Now, this isn't something that just has to
be done at the Security Council chamber.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
135
361720
4160
Det er ikke noget der bare skal gøres
ved Sikkerhedsrådets afdeling.
ved Sikkerhedsrådets afdeling.
06:18
It's something that you can do
in a very kind of personal way.
in a very kind of personal way.
136
366480
3256
Det er noget du kan gøre
på meget personlig vis.
på meget personlig vis.
06:21
So every once in a while, if I'm lucky,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
137
369760
4416
Så i ny og næ, hvis jeg er heldig, tager
min kone og jeg ud og spiser,
min kone og jeg ud og spiser,
06:26
and we have three children
under the age of seven.
under the age of seven.
138
374200
3256
og vi har tre børn under syv år.
06:29
So you can imagine
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
139
377480
2429
Så i kan forestille jer, at det er et
fredfyldt, stille måltid.
fredfyldt, stille måltid.
06:31
(Laughter)
140
379933
1203
(Latter)
06:33
So we sit down and literally
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
141
381160
5576
Så vi sidder ned og bogstaveligt talt,
alt jeg vil er at spise og chille,
alt jeg vil er at spise og chille,
06:38
and my kids have a completely
and totally different idea
and totally different idea
142
386760
2656
og mine børn har en totalt og komplet
anden idé
anden idé
06:41
of what we're going to be doing.
143
389440
1576
af hvad vi skal lave.
06:43
And so my first idea
144
391040
2336
Så min første idé
06:45
is my sandbag strategy, right?
145
393400
1896
er min sandpose strategi, ikke?
06:47
It's to go into my pocket
and take out the iPhone
and take out the iPhone
146
395320
2336
Det er at gå ned i min lomme og tage
min Iphone frem
min Iphone frem
06:49
and give them "Frozen"
147
397680
1456
og give dem "Frozen"
06:51
or some other bestselling game thing.
148
399160
2960
eller nogle andre bedst-sælgende spil ting.
06:55
And then I stop
149
403240
3696
Og så stopper jeg
06:58
and I have to kind of put on
this transgenerational thinking cap.
this transgenerational thinking cap.
150
406960
4576
og jeg bliver nødt til at putte denne
transgenerationelle tænke kasket på.
transgenerationelle tænke kasket på.
07:03
I don't do this in the restaurant,
because it would be bizarre,
because it would be bizarre,
151
411560
2976
Jeg gør det ikke i restauranten, for det
ville være bizart,
ville være bizart,
07:06
but I have to --
152
414560
1296
men jeg bliver nødt --
07:07
I did it once, and that's how
I learned it was bizarre.
I learned it was bizarre.
153
415880
2616
Jeg gjorde det én gang og derfor lærte
jeg det var bizart.
jeg det var bizart.
07:10
(Laughter)
154
418520
1016
(Latter)
07:11
And you have to kind of think,
"OK, I can do this."
"OK, I can do this."
155
419560
4120
Og du bliver nødt til at tænke,
"OK, jeg kan gøre det."
"OK, jeg kan gøre det."
07:16
But what is this teaching them?
156
424440
1720
Men hvad lære det dem?
07:19
So what does it mean
if I actually bring some paper
if I actually bring some paper
157
427480
2616
Så hvad betyder det, hvis jeg faktisk
medbringer noget papir
medbringer noget papir
07:22
or engage with them in conversation?
158
430120
1736
eller engagerer med dem i en samtale?
07:23
It's hard. It's not easy,
and I'm making this very personal.
and I'm making this very personal.
159
431880
2856
Det svært. Det ikke nemt, og jeg gør det
meget personligt.
meget personligt.
07:26
It's actually more traumatic
160
434760
1376
Det faktisk mere traumatisk
07:28
than some of the big issues
that I work on in the world --
that I work on in the world --
161
436160
2736
end nogle af de store problemstillinger
jeg arbejder med i verden --
jeg arbejder med i verden --
07:30
entertaining my kids at dinner.
162
438920
1840
underholde mine børn ved bordet.
07:33
But what it does is it connects them
here in the present with me,
here in the present with me,
163
441560
3136
Men hvad det gør er at det forbinder dem
til nuet med mig,
til nuet med mig,
07:36
but it also --
164
444720
1256
men det gør også --
07:38
and this is the crux
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
165
446000
3456
og dette er kernen af transgenerationel
tænkning etik --
tænkning etik --
07:41
it sets them up to how they're
going to interact with their kids
going to interact with their kids
166
449480
3296
Det lære dem hvordan de skal
interagerer med deres børn
interagerer med deres børn
07:44
and their kids and their kids.
167
452800
2080
and deres børn og deres børn.
07:48
Second, futures thinking.
168
456360
1680
Anden, fremtids tænkning.
07:50
When we think about the future,
169
458680
1976
Når vi tænker på fremtiden,
07:52
10, 15 years out,
170
460680
1240
10, 15 år frem,
07:54
give me a vision of what the future is.
171
462920
1858
giv mig en vision af hvad fremtiden er.
07:58
You don't have to give it to me,
but think in your head.
but think in your head.
172
466000
2656
I behøver ikke give det til mig,
men tænk i dit hovedet.
men tænk i dit hovedet.
08:00
And what you're probably going to see
173
468680
2136
Og hvad du sikker vil se
08:02
is the dominant cultural lens
174
470840
1816
er den dominante kulturalle linse
08:04
that dominates our thinking
about the future right now:
about the future right now:
175
472680
3056
der dominerer vores tænkning
omkring fremtiden lige nu:
omkring fremtiden lige nu:
08:07
technology.
176
475760
1200
teknologi.
08:09
So when we think about the problems,
177
477840
1736
Så når vi tænker omkring problemerne,
08:11
we always put it through
a technological lens,
a technological lens,
178
479600
2176
vi tager det altid igennem en teknologisk
linse,
linse,
08:13
a tech-centric, a techno-utopia,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
179
481800
3256
a teknisk-centreret, en techno-utopisk,
og der er intet galt med det,
og der er intet galt med det,
08:17
but it's something that we have to
really think deeply about
really think deeply about
180
485080
3296
men det er noget vi virkelig
skal tænke dybt over
skal tænke dybt over
08:20
if we're going to move
on these major issues,
on these major issues,
181
488400
2856
hvis vi skal flytte på disse store
problemstillinger,
problemstillinger,
08:23
because it wasn't always like this. Right?
182
491280
2056
Fordi det har ikke altid været sådan her.
Right?
Right?
08:25
The ancients had their way of thinking
183
493360
2640
Oldtiden havde deres måde at tænke
08:28
about what the future was.
184
496840
1520
omkring hvad fremtiden var.
08:31
The Church definitely had their idea
of what the future could be,
of what the future could be,
185
499640
4896
Kirken havde bestemt deres idé
om hvad fremtiden kunne være,
om hvad fremtiden kunne være,
08:36
and you could actually pay your way
into that future. Right?
into that future. Right?
186
504560
2936
og du kunne faktisk betale din vej
ind i fremtiden. Right?
ind i fremtiden. Right?
08:39
And luckily for humanity,
187
507520
1936
Og heldigvis for menneskeheden,
08:41
we got the scientific revolution.
188
509480
2136
fik vi den videnskabelige revolution.
08:43
From there, we got the technology,
189
511640
1656
Derfra, vi fik teknologien,
08:45
but what has happened --
190
513320
1656
men hvad er der sket --
08:47
And by the way, this is not a critique.
191
515000
2360
Og forresten, dette er ikke en kritik.
08:50
I love technology.
192
518320
2376
Jeg elsker teknologi.
08:52
Everything in my house talks back to me,
193
520720
1935
Alt i mit hus snakker tilbage til mig,
08:54
from my children
to my speakers to everything.
to my speakers to everything.
194
522679
2177
fra mine børn til mine højtalere
til alting.
til alting.
08:56
(Laughter)
195
524880
2816
(Latter)
08:59
But we've abdicated the future
from the high priests in Rome
from the high priests in Rome
196
527720
5696
Men vi har fralagt fremtiden fra de høje
præster i Rom
præster i Rom
09:05
to the high priests of Silicon Valley.
197
533440
3080
til de høje præster af Silicon Valley.
09:09
So when we think, well,
how are we going to deal with climate
how are we going to deal with climate
198
537880
3336
Så når vi tænker, nå,
hvordan skal vi behandle klima
hvordan skal vi behandle klima
09:13
or with poverty or homelessness,
199
541240
1576
eller fattigdom eller hjemløshed,
09:14
our first reaction is to think about it
through a technology lens.
through a technology lens.
200
542840
3120
vores første reaktion er at tænke om det
gennem vores teknologiske linse.
gennem vores teknologiske linse.
09:19
And look, I'm not advocating
that we go to this guy.
that we go to this guy.
201
547080
4616
Og hør, jeg foreslår ikke at vi går til
denne fyr.
denne fyr.
09:23
I love Joel, don't get me wrong,
202
551720
1920
I jeg elsker Joel, misforstå mig ikke,
09:26
but I'm not saying we go to Joel.
203
554400
1656
men jeg siger ikke vi går til Joel.
09:28
What I'm saying is we have to rethink
204
556080
1816
Hvad jeg siger er at vi bliver nødt
til at gentænke
til at gentænke
09:29
our base assumption about
only looking at the future in one way,
only looking at the future in one way,
205
557920
4776
vores basale antagelse om kun at kigge
på fremtiden på en måde,
på fremtiden på en måde,
09:34
only looking at it
through the dominant lens.
through the dominant lens.
206
562720
2136
kun at kigge på det gennem den dominante
linse.
linse.
09:36
Because our problems
are so big and so vast
are so big and so vast
207
564880
2176
For vores problemer er så store og bredde
09:39
that we need to open ourselves up.
208
567080
2816
at vi bliver nødt til at åbne os op.
09:41
So that's why I do everything in my power
not to talk about the future.
not to talk about the future.
209
569920
3720
Så derfor gør jeg alting i min magt til
ikke at snakke om fremtiden.
ikke at snakke om fremtiden.
09:46
I talk about futures.
210
574320
1720
Jeg snakker om fremtider.
09:48
It opens the conversation again.
211
576920
1736
Det åbner samtalen igen.
09:50
So when you're sitting and thinking
212
578680
2456
Så når du sidder og tænker
09:53
about how do we move forward
on this major issue --
on this major issue --
213
581160
3176
om hvordan vi rykker fremad på
dette store problem --
dette store problem --
09:56
it could be at home,
214
584360
1536
det kunne være derhjemme,
09:57
it could be at work,
215
585920
1976
det kunne være på arbejde,
09:59
it could be again on the global stage --
216
587920
2856
det kunne igen være på en global scene --
10:02
don't cut yourself off from thinking
about something beyond technology as a fix
about something beyond technology as a fix
217
590800
4416
snyd ikke dig selv for at tænke udover
teknologien som en løsning
teknologien som en løsning
10:07
because we're more concerned
about technological evolution right now
about technological evolution right now
218
595240
3536
for vi er mere bekymrede om teknologisk
evolution lige nu
evolution lige nu
10:10
than we are about moral evolution.
219
598800
2136
end vi er om moral evolution.
10:12
And unless we fix for that,
220
600960
2016
Og med mindre vi fixer det,
10:15
we're not going to be able
to get out of short-termism
to get out of short-termism
221
603000
2576
bliver vi ikke istand til at komme ud af
kortsigtethed
kortsigtethed
10:17
and get to where we want to be.
222
605600
1816
og komme til hvor vi gerne vil være.
10:19
The final, telos thinking.
This comes from the Greek root.
This comes from the Greek root.
223
607440
2760
Den sidste, telos tænkning.
Dette kommer fra den Græske rod.
Dette kommer fra den Græske rod.
10:22
Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.
224
610680
2256
Ultimativ mål og ultimativ mening.
10:24
And it's really asking one question:
225
612960
2360
Og det er virkelig at spørge et spørgsmål:
10:28
to what end?
226
616120
1200
til hvilken ende?
10:30
When was the last time
you asked yourself: To what end?
you asked yourself: To what end?
227
618280
3016
Hvornår var sidste gang du spurgte
dig selv: Til hvilken ende?
dig selv: Til hvilken ende?
10:33
And when you asked yourself that,
how far out did you go?
how far out did you go?
228
621320
3800
Og da du spurgte dig selv det,
hvor langt ud gik du?
hvor langt ud gik du?
10:37
Because long isn't long enough anymore.
229
625640
3000
Forbi langt er ikke langt nok længere.
10:41
Three, five years doesn't cut it.
230
629560
1896
Tre, fem år gør det ikke.
10:43
It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
231
631480
2280
Det er 30, 40, 50, 100 år.
10:46
In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"
232
634800
2216
I Homer's epik, "The Odyssey."
10:49
Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."
233
637040
3056
Oddyseus havde svaret til hans
"hvilken ende."
"hvilken ende."
10:52
It was Ithaca.
234
640120
1400
Det var Ithaca.
10:53
It was this bold vision
of what he wanted --
of what he wanted --
235
641880
2096
Det var en dristig vision af hvad
han ville --
han ville --
10:56
to return to Penelope.
236
644000
1376
at returnerer til Penelope.
10:57
And I can tell you,
because of the work that I'm doing,
because of the work that I'm doing,
237
645400
2616
Og jeg kan fortælle jer,
på grund af det arbejde jeg laver,
på grund af det arbejde jeg laver,
11:00
but also you know it intuitively --
we have lost our Ithaca.
we have lost our Ithaca.
238
648040
2856
men i ved det også intuitivt --
vi har mistet vores Ithaca.
vi har mistet vores Ithaca.
11:02
We have lost our "to what end,"
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
239
650920
3536
Vi har mistet vores "til hvilken ende,"
så vi bliver i dette hamster hjul.
så vi bliver i dette hamster hjul.
11:06
And yes, we're trying
to solve these problems,
to solve these problems,
240
654480
2176
Og ja, vi prøver at løse disse problemer,
11:08
but what comes after we solve the problem?
241
656680
2840
Men hvad kommer efter vi løser problemet?
11:12
And unless you define what comes after,
people aren't going to move.
people aren't going to move.
242
660160
3240
Og medmindre du definerer hvad der kommer
efter, så rykker folk sig ikke.
efter, så rykker folk sig ikke.
11:16
The businesses --
this isn't just about business --
this isn't just about business --
243
664400
2416
Firmaerne --
dette er ikke bare omkring firmaerne --
dette er ikke bare omkring firmaerne --
11:18
but the businesses that do consistently,
who break out of short-termism
who break out of short-termism
244
666840
3336
men firmaerne der konsekvent bryder
ud af kortsigtethed
ud af kortsigtethed
11:22
not surprisingly
are family-run businesses.
are family-run businesses.
245
670200
2016
er ikke overraskende
familie-drevne firmaer.
familie-drevne firmaer.
11:24
They're transgenerational. They're telos.
They think about the futures.
They think about the futures.
246
672240
3576
De er transgenerationelle. De er telos.
De tænker på fremtiden.
De tænker på fremtiden.
11:27
And this is an ad for Patek Philippe.
They're 175 years old,
They're 175 years old,
247
675840
3696
Og dette er en reklame for Patek Philippe.
De er 175 år gamle,
De er 175 år gamle,
11:31
and what's amazing
is that they literally embody
is that they literally embody
248
679560
3056
og hvad der er fantastisk er at de
bogstaveligt legemliggør
bogstaveligt legemliggør
11:34
this kind of longpathian sense
in their brand,
in their brand,
249
682640
2816
denne form for langsigtet fornuft
i deres mærke,
i deres mærke,
11:37
because, by the way,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
250
685480
2896
fordi, forresten, så ejer du faktisk
aldrig en Patek Philippe,
aldrig en Patek Philippe,
11:40
and I definitely won't --
251
688400
1576
og jeg vil bestemt ikke --
11:42
(Laughter)
252
690000
1016
(Latter)
11:43
unless somebody wants to just
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
253
691040
3000
medmindre nogen bare vil kaste
25,000 dollars på scenen.
25,000 dollars på scenen.
11:46
You merely look after it
for the next generation.
for the next generation.
254
694064
3200
Du passer på det for den næste generation.
11:50
So it's important that we remember,
255
698840
2456
Så det er vigtigt at vi husker,
11:53
the future, we treat it like a noun.
256
701320
3136
fremtiden, vi behandler den som et navneord.
11:56
It's not. It's a verb.
257
704480
2256
Det er det ikke. Det er et udsagnsord.
11:58
It requires action.
258
706760
1256
Det kræver handling.
12:00
It requires us to push into it.
259
708040
1816
Det kræver vi skubber ind i det.
12:01
It's not this thing that washes over us.
260
709880
1936
Det er ikke denne ting der skyller
ind over os.
ind over os.
12:03
It's something that we
actually have total control over.
actually have total control over.
261
711840
2656
Det er noget vi faktisk har kontrol over.
12:06
But in a short-term society,
we end up feeling like we don't.
we end up feeling like we don't.
262
714520
2896
Men i et kortsigtet samfund, vi ender
med at føle vi ikke har.
med at føle vi ikke har.
12:09
We feel like we're trapped.
263
717440
1336
Vi føler som om vi er fanget.
12:10
We can push through that.
264
718800
1200
Vi kan komme over det.
12:14
Now I'm getting more comfortable
265
722000
2440
Nu bliver jeg mere komfortabel
12:17
in the fact that at some point
266
725200
2240
i det fact, at på et tidspunkt
12:20
in the inevitable future,
267
728360
1280
i den uundgåelige fremtid,
12:23
I will die.
268
731000
1200
vil jeg dø.
12:25
But because of these new ways
of thinking and doing,
of thinking and doing,
269
733240
4096
Men pga. disse nye måder at tænke og gøre,
12:29
both in the outside world
and also with my family at home,
and also with my family at home,
270
737360
3936
både i den ydre verden men også
med min familie derhjemme,
med min familie derhjemme,
12:33
and what I'm leaving my kids,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
I get more comfortable in that fact.
271
741320
3136
og hvad jeg forlader mine børn,
bliver jeg mere komfortabel i det faktum.
bliver jeg mere komfortabel i det faktum.
12:36
And it's something that a lot of us
are really uncomfortable with,
are really uncomfortable with,
272
744480
3136
Og det er noget mange af os har det
ubehageligt med,
ubehageligt med,
12:39
but I'm telling you,
273
747640
1200
men jeg siger jer,
12:41
think it through.
274
749840
1416
tænk det igennem.
12:43
Apply this type of thinking
and you can push yourself past
and you can push yourself past
275
751280
2736
Brug denne type tænkning og i kan skubbe
jer selv over
jer selv over
12:46
what's inevitably
very, very uncomfortable.
very, very uncomfortable.
276
754040
2056
hvad uundgåeligt er meget, meget ukomfortabelt.
12:48
And it all begins really
with yourself asking this question:
with yourself asking this question:
277
756120
3720
Og det begynder alt sammen med jer
der spørger dette spørgsmål:
der spørger dette spørgsmål:
12:52
What is your longpath?
278
760840
1760
Hvad er jeres langsigt?
12:55
But I ask you, when you ask yourself that
279
763880
2896
Men jeg spørger jer, når i spørger jer selv det
12:58
now or tonight or behind a steering wheel
280
766800
2256
nu eller i aften eller bag et rat
13:01
or in the boardroom or the situation room:
281
769080
3360
eller i bestyrelseslokalet eller situations lokalet:
13:06
push past the longpath,
282
774320
2176
Skub forbi den lange-bane,
13:08
quick, oh, what's my longpath
the next three years or five years?
the next three years or five years?
283
776520
3296
hurtigt, oh, hvad er min langsigt de næste
tre år eller fem år?
tre år eller fem år?
13:11
Try and push past your own life if you can
284
779840
3616
Prøv at skubbe forbi dit eget liv hvis du kan
13:15
because it makes you do things
a little bit bigger
a little bit bigger
285
783480
2376
fordi det får dig til at gøre ting
en smule større
en smule større
13:17
than you thought were possible.
286
785880
1680
end du havde tænkt muligt.
13:20
Yes, we have huge,
huge problems out there.
huge problems out there.
287
788800
3000
Ja, vi har store, store problemer derude.
13:25
With this process, with this thinking,
288
793800
2400
Med denne proces, med denne tænkning.
13:29
I think we can make a difference.
289
797120
1600
Jeg tror at vi kan gøre en forskel.
13:31
I think you can make a difference,
290
799240
2536
Jeg tror I kan gøre en forskel,
13:33
and I believe in you guys.
291
801800
1616
og jeg tror på jer.
13:35
Thank you.
292
803440
1216
Tak.
13:36
(Applause)
293
804680
5023
(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com