ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - Futurist
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.

Why you should listen

Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.

Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.

His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building. 

In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.

More profile about the speaker
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxMidAtlantic

Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term

Ari Wallach: 3 načina za (jako) dugoročno planiranje

Filmed:
2,384,369 views

Sve više donosimo odluke na temelju kratkoročnih ciljeva i dobitaka - pristup koji budućnost čini neizvjesnom i manje sigurnom. Kako možemo naučiti razmišljati i dugoročno planirati bolju budućnost ... dugoročno do razine naših unuka? Ari Wallach dijeli tri taktike za razmišljanje izvan trenutka.
- Futurist
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So I've been "futuringuzaludan,"
whichkoji is a termtermin I madenapravljen up --
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I tako, ja sam "budućirao",
što je izraz koji sam izmislio...
00:16
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
00:17
about threetri secondssekundi agoprije.
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prije otprilike 3 sekunde.
00:18
I've been futuringuzaludan for about 20 yearsgodina,
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Budućiram već 20 godina.
00:21
and when I first startedpočeo,
I would sitsjediti down with people,
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Kad sam prvi put počeo, sjeo bih s ljudima
00:24
and say, "Hey,
let's talk 10, 20 yearsgodina out."
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i rekao: "Hej, idemo pričati
što će biti za 10, 20 godina."
00:27
And they'doni bi say, "Great."
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I oni bi rekli: "Super."
00:29
And I've been seeingvidim that time horizonhorizont
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Ja bih promatrao kako je to
vremensko razdoblje
00:32
get shorterkraće and shorterkraće
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sve kraće i kraće
00:34
and shorterkraće,
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i kraće,
00:35
so much so that I metsastali
with a CEOIZVRŠNI DIREKTOR two monthsmjeseci agoprije
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toliko kratko da sam prije 2 mjeseca
upoznao direktora
00:39
and I said -- we startedpočeo
our initialpočetni conversationrazgovor.
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s kojim sam započeo prvi razgovor.
00:41
He goeside, "I love what you do.
I want to talk about the nextSljedeći sixšest monthsmjeseci."
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On je rekao: "Sviđa mi se to što
radiš, želim pričati o idućih 6 mjeseci."
00:45
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
00:48
We have a lot of problemsproblemi
that we are facingokrenut.
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Imamo mnogo problema
s kojima se suočavamo.
00:51
These are civilizational-scalecivilizacijska razmjera problemsproblemi.
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To su problemi cijele civilizacije.
00:55
The issueizdanje thoughiako is,
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Međutim, problem je u tome što
00:57
we can't solveriješiti them
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ih mi ne možemo riješiti
00:59
usingkoristeći the mentalmentalni modelsmodeli
that we use right now
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pomoću mentalnih sklopova
koje trenutačno koristimo
01:01
to try and solveriješiti these problemsproblemi.
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da probamo i riješimo te probleme.
01:03
Yes, a lot of great
technicaltehnička work is beingbiće doneučinio,
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Napravljen je velik tehnološki napredak,
01:06
but there is a problemproblem that
we need to solveriješiti for a prioripriori, before,
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ali postoji problem koji trebamo
najprije riješiti, a priori,
01:11
if we want to really
movepotez the needleigla on those bigvelika problemsproblemi.
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ako zaista želimo pomaknuti stvari
oko tih velikih problema.
01:15
"Short-termismKratki termism."
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"Kratkoročnost."
01:16
Right? There's no marchesmarševa.
There's no braceletsnarukvice.
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Jasno? Nema protesta. Nema hapšenja.
01:19
There's no petitionspeticije that you can signznak
to be againstprotiv short-termismkratkog termism.
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Nema peticija koje možete potpisati
za borbu protiv kratkoročnosti.
01:23
I triedpokušala to put one up, and no one signedpotpisan.
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Ja sam pokrenuo jednu,
nitko nije potpisao.
01:26
It was weirdčudan.
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Čudno!
01:27
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
01:29
But it preventssprječava us from doing so much.
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A to nas koči napraviti toliko puno toga.
01:32
Short-termismKratki termism, for manymnogi reasonsrazlozi,
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Kratkoročnost je, iz mnogih razloga,
01:35
has pervadedprožeto everysvaki
nookKutak and crannypukotinu of our realitystvarnost.
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prevladala svaki, i najmanji,
dio naše stvarnosti.
01:37
I just want you to take a seconddrugi
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Želim da stanete na sekundu
01:39
and just think about an issueizdanje
that you're thinkingmišljenje, workingrad on.
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i razmislite o problemu
o kojem razmišljate, na kojem radite.
01:43
It could be personalosobni, it could be at work
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Može biti osoban ili povezan s poslom
01:45
or it could be
move-the-needlepomicanje igle worldsvijet stuffstvari,
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ili može biti jedan od onih koji će
promijeniti svijet.
01:47
and think about
how fardaleko out you tendskloni to think
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Zamislite koliko daleko idete
da biste osmislili
01:49
about the solutionriješenje setset for that.
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rješenje za njega.
01:53
Because short-termismkratkog termism preventssprječava the CEOIZVRŠNI DIREKTOR
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Jer kratkoročnost sprečava direktore
01:58
from buyingkupovina really
expensiveskup safetysigurnosni equipmentoprema.
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da kupe vrlo skupu sigurnosnu opremu
02:01
It'llTo ćete hurtpovrijediti the bottomdno linecrta.
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jer će smanjiti profit.
02:03
So we get the DeepwaterDeepwater HorizonHorizont.
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Tako nastaju problemi s platformom
Deepwater Horizon.
02:06
Short-termismKratki termism preventssprječava teachersučitelji
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Kratkoročnost sprečava učitelje
02:09
from spendingtrošenje qualitykvaliteta
one-on-onejedan na jedan time with theirnjihov studentsstudenti.
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da provedu vrijeme radeći kvalitetno
s pojedinim učenicima.
02:12
So right now in AmericaAmerika,
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Trenutačno u SAD-u
02:14
a highvisok schoolškola studentstudent
dropsKapi out everysvaki 26 secondssekundi.
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jedan srednjoškolski učenik odustaje
svakih 26 sekundi.
02:19
Short-termismKratki termism preventssprječava CongressKongres --
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Kratkoročnost sprečava Kongres --
02:22
sorry if there's anyonebilo tko
in here from CongressKongres --
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žao mi je ako ovdje ima
nekog iz Kongresa --
02:24
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
02:26
or not really that sorry --
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i nije mi baš tako žao --
02:28
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
02:30
from puttingstavljanje moneynovac
into a realstvaran infrastructureinfrastruktura billračun.
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usmjeriti novac u zakon o infrastrukturi.
02:33
So what we get
is the I-35W bridgemost collapsekolaps
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Pa se sruši most I-35W
02:36
over the MississippiMississippi a fewnekoliko yearsgodina agoprije,
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na Mississippiju prije nekoliko godina.
02:38
13 killedubijen.
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13 mrtvih.
02:40
It wasn'tnije always like this.
We did the PanamaPanama CanalKanal.
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Nije uvijek bilo tako.
Sagradili smo Panamski kanal.
02:44
We prettyprilično much
have eradicatediskorijenjena globalglobalno poliodječja paraliza.
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Gotovo smo iskorijenili
dječju paralizu u svijetu.
02:46
We did the transcontinentaltranskontinentalne railroadželjeznica,
the MarshallMarshall PlanPlana.
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Sagradili smo transkontinentalnu
željeznicu. Marshallov plan.
02:50
And it's not just bigvelika, physicalfizička
infrastructureinfrastruktura problemsproblemi and issuespitanja.
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I ne radi se samo o velikim, fizičkim,
infrastrukturnim problemima i izazovima.
02:54
Women'sŽene suffragepravo glasa, the right to voteglasanje.
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Pravo glasa ženama.
02:56
But in our short-termistkratki TERMIST time,
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No, u naše kratkoročno vrijeme,
02:59
where everything seemsčini se to happendogoditi se right now
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gdje se čini da se sve dešava upravo sad
03:02
and we can only think out
pastprošlost the nextSljedeći tweetcvrkut or timelineKronologija postpošta,
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i možemo razmišljati samo tijekom
nekoliko poruka ili objava,
03:06
we get hyper-reactionaryHyper-reakcionarni.
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postajemo hiper-nazadni.
03:08
So what do we do?
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Što ćemo učiniti?
03:10
We take people who are fleeingbježeći
theirnjihov war-tornratom countryzemlja,
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Usmjerit ćemo se na izbjeglice
iz ratom razorenih zemalja
03:14
and we go after them.
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i istjerat ćemo ih.
03:15
We take low-levelniske razine drugdroga offendersprijestupnika,
and we put them away for life.
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Usmjerit ćemo se na sitne dilere droge
i osuditi ih na doživotnu.
03:19
And then we buildizgraditi McMansionsMcMansions
withoutbez even thinkingmišljenje
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Sagradit ćemo velike i ružne kuće
bez osmišljavanja
03:21
about how people are going
to get betweenizmeđu them and theirnjihov jobposao.
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kako će ljudi stići od njih do posla.
03:24
It's a quickbrz buckmužjak.
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To je lagano zarađen novac.
03:26
Now, the realitystvarnost is,
for a lot of these problemsproblemi,
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Stvarnost je, da za mnoge od tih problema,
03:29
there are some technicaltehnička fixespopravci,
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postoje neka tehnološka rješenja.
03:31
a lot of them.
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Mnogo njih.
03:33
I call these technicaltehnička fixespopravci
sandbagpijeska strategiesstrategije.
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Takva rješenja nazivam
strategijom vreće pijeska.
03:36
So you know there's a stormoluja comingdolazak,
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Znate da dolazi oluja,
03:38
the leveenasip is brokenslomljen,
no one'sjedan je put any moneynovac into it,
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nasip je probijen,
nitko nije ulagao u održavanje,
03:41
you surroundSurround your home with sandbagsvrećama pijeska.
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a vi okružite kuću vrećama pijeska.
03:43
And guessnagađati what? It worksdjela.
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I znate što? To funkcionira!
03:46
StormOluja goeside away,
the watervoda levelnivo goeside down,
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Oluja prođe, razina vode se spusti,
03:48
you get ridosloboditi of the sandbagsvrećama pijeska,
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vi se riješite vreća pijeska
03:50
and you do this stormoluja
after stormoluja after stormoluja.
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i to radite ponovno za svake oluje.
03:53
And here'sevo the insidiouspodmukao thing.
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Tu je i prava podmuklost.
03:56
A sandbagpijeska strategystrategija
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Pomoću strategije vreća pijeska
03:58
can get you reelectedponovno birati.
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možete pobijediti na izborima.
04:00
A sandbagpijeska strategystrategija
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Strategija vreća pijeska
04:01
can help you make your quarterlytromjesečni numbersbrojevi.
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vam može pomoći postići
kvartalne rezultate.
04:06
Now, if we want to movepotez forwardnaprijed
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Ako se želimo pomaknuti naprijed
04:09
into a differentdrugačiji futurebudućnost
than the one we have right now,
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u budućnost drugačiju od one
u kojoj smo sad,
04:12
because I don't think we'veimamo hithit --
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jer ne vjerujem da smo postigli
sve što je trebalo --
04:14
2016 is not peakvrh civilizationcivilizacija.
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2016. nije vrhunac civilizacije.
04:16
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
04:17
There's some more we can do.
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Mora biti nešto što možemo učiniti.
04:19
But my argumentargument is that unlessosim ako we shiftsmjena
our mentalmentalni modelsmodeli and our mentalmentalni mapskarata
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No, moj je argument da ako ne promijenimo
naše mentalne modele i mentalne mape
04:23
on how we think about the shortkratak,
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o tome kako razmišljamo o kratkom,
04:26
it's not going to happendogoditi se.
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to se neće dogoditi.
04:28
So what I've developedrazvijen
is something calledzvao "longpathLong Path,"
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Ono što smo razvili je nešto
što zovemo "dugoročnost",
04:31
and it's a practicepraksa.
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to je vještina.
04:32
And longpathLong Path isn't
a kindljubazan of one-and-donejedan-i-učinio exercisevježba.
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Dugoročnost nije vrsta vježbe
koju radite samo jednom.
04:36
I'm sure everyonesvatko here
at some pointtočka has doneučinio an off-siteoff-site
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Siguran sam da ju je svatko
od vas ovdje u nekom trenutku
04:39
with a lot of Post-ItPost-It notesbilješke
and whiteboardsbijele ploče,
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napravio uz puno Post-it bilježaka
i bijelih ploča,
04:41
and you do --
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tada ste napravili --
04:44
no offenseuvrede to the consultantskonzultanti
in here who do that --
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bez uvrede savjetnicima ovdje
koji to rade --
04:46
and you do a long-termdugoročno planplan,
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dugoročan plan,
04:48
and then two weeksTjedni laterkasnije,
everyonesvatko forgetszaboravlja about it.
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i dva tjedna kasnije
svi zaborave na njega.
04:52
Right? Or a weektjedan laterkasnije.
If you're luckysretan, threetri monthsmjeseci.
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Istina? ili tjedan kasnije.
Ako ste sretni, tri mjeseca.
04:56
It's a practicepraksa because
it's not necessarilyobavezno a thing that you do.
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To je vještina jer to nije nužno
nešto uobičajeno.
05:00
It's a processpostupak where you have
to revisitponovo differentdrugačiji waysnačine of thinkingmišljenje
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To je proces u kojem trebate primijeniti
različite načine razmišljanja
05:04
for everysvaki majorglavni decisionodluka
that you're workingrad on.
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za svaku važnu odluku na kojoj radite.
05:06
So I want to go throughkroz
those threetri waysnačine of thinkingmišljenje.
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Želim proći kroz ta tri
načina razmišljanja.
05:09
So the first: transgenerationaltransgeneracijska thinkingmišljenje.
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Prvi je međugeneracijsko razmišljanje.
05:13
I love the philosophersfilozofi:
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Volim filozofe:
05:15
PlatoPlaton, SocratesSokrat, HabermasHabermas, HeideggerHeidegger.
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Platon, Sokrat, Habermas, Heidegger.
05:17
I was raiseduzdignut on them.
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Odrastao sam s njima.
05:20
But they all did one thing
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Oni su svi radili jednu stvar
05:22
that didn't actuallyzapravo seemčiniti se like a bigvelika dealdogovor
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koja se, zapravo, nije činila jako važnom
05:24
untildo I really startedpočeo
kindljubazan of looking into this.
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dok se nisam zaista udubio u to.
05:26
And they all tookuzeo,
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Oni su kao jedinicu mjere
05:28
as a unitjedinica of measuremjera
for theirnjihov entirečitav realitystvarnost
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uzeli njihovu čitavu stvarnost
05:31
of what it meantznačilo to be virtuousvrli and good,
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o tome što je značilo biti
pun vrlina i dobar,
05:33
the singlesingl lifespanživotni vijek,
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tijekom cijelog života,
05:35
from birthrođenja to deathsmrt.
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od rođenja do smrti.
05:37
But here'sevo a problemproblem with these issuespitanja:
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Postoji problem s tim stvarima:
05:39
they stackstog up on topvrh of us,
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vise nam nad glavom,
05:41
because the only way we know
how to do something good in the worldsvijet
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jer je jedini način da znamo
kako napraviti nešto dobro u svijetu,
05:44
is if we do it betweenizmeđu
our birthrođenja and our deathsmrt.
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ako to napravimo između rođenja i smrti.
Za to smo napravljeni.
05:46
That's what we're programmedprogramiran to do.
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Ako odete do knjiga za samopomoć
u nekoj knjižari,
05:48
If you go to the self-helpSamopomoć sectionodjeljak
in any bookstoreknjižara,
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05:50
it's all about you.
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sve su one o vama.
05:53
WhichKoji is great,
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To je dobro,
05:55
unlessosim ako you're dealingbavljenje
with some of these majorglavni issuespitanja.
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osim ako se ne borite s nekim
od tih glavnih izazova.
05:59
And so with transgenerationaltransgeneracijska thinkingmišljenje,
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Dakle, transgeneracijsko mišljenje,
06:03
whichkoji is really kindljubazan of
transgenerationaltransgeneracijska ethicsetika,
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koje je zapravo vrsta
transgeneracijske etike,
06:05
you're ableu stanju to expandproširiti
how you think about these problemsproblemi,
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vam omogućava da proširite način
razmišljanja o tim stvarima,
06:09
what is your roleuloga
in helpingpomoć to solveriješiti them.
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koja je vaša uloga u njihovom rješavanju.
06:13
Now, this isn't something that just has to
be doneučinio at the SecuritySigurnost CouncilVijeća chamberkomora.
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To nije nešto što se mora napraviti
isključivo u dvoranih Vijeća sigurnosti UN-a.
06:18
It's something that you can do
in a very kindljubazan of personalosobni way.
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To je nešto što možete učiniti
na poseban i osoban način.
06:21
So everysvaki oncejednom in a while, if I'm luckysretan,
my wifežena and I like to go out to dinnervečera,
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Svako toliko, ako imam sreće, moja
supruga i ja iziđemo van na večeru.
06:26
and we have threetri childrendjeca
underpod the agedob of sevensedam.
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Imamo troje djece mlađe od sedam godina.
06:29
So you can imaginezamisliti
it's a very peacefulmirno, quietmiran mealobrok.
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Zamislite, to je vrlo mirna i tiha večera.
06:31
(LaughterSmijeh)
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1203
(Smijeh)
06:33
So we sitsjediti down and literallydoslovce
all I want to do is just eatjesti and chillstuden,
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Sjedili smo i jedino što sam želio
je jesti i uživati.
06:38
and my kidsdjeca have a completelypotpuno
and totallypotpuno differentdrugačiji ideaideja
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Moja djeca su imala potpuno
drugačiju ideju
o tome što ćemo raditi.
06:41
of what we're going to be doing.
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06:43
And so my first ideaideja
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Moja prva ideja je
06:45
is my sandbagpijeska strategystrategija, right?
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strategija vreće pijeska, zar ne?
06:47
It's to go into my pocketdžep
and take out the iPhoneiPhone
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Posegnuti u džep, izvući iPhone
06:49
and give them "FrozenZamrznuta"
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i pustiti im "Frozen"
06:51
or some other bestsellingnajprodavaniji gameigra thing.
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ili neku drugu popularnu igru.
06:55
And then I stop
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Zastao sam
06:58
and I have to kindljubazan of put on
this transgenerationaltransgeneracijska thinkingmišljenje capkapa.
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i stavio na glavu kapu
za međugeneracijsko razmišljanje.
07:03
I don't do this in the restaurantrestoran,
because it would be bizarrebizarno,
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Ne radim to u restoranima jer bi to
izgledalo bizarno
07:06
but I have to --
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ali moram --
07:07
I did it oncejednom, and that's how
I learnednaučeno it was bizarrebizarno.
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napravio sam to jednom
i tako naučio da je to bizarno.
07:10
(LaughterSmijeh)
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(Smijeh)
07:11
And you have to kindljubazan of think,
"OK, I can do this."
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I morate misliti: "Dobro, mogu ja to."
07:16
But what is this teachingnastava them?
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Ali što ih učim time?
07:19
So what does it mean
if I actuallyzapravo bringdonijeti some paperpapir
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Što znači ako izvučem neki tekst
07:22
or engageangažirati with them in conversationrazgovor?
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ili ih zabavim razgovorom?
07:23
It's hardteško. It's not easylako,
and I'm makingizrađivanje this very personalosobni.
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Teško je. Nije lako
i ja to radim vrlo osobno.
Zapravo je traumatičnije
07:26
It's actuallyzapravo more traumatictraumatičan
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nego neki veliki izazovi u svijetu
na kojima radim --
07:28
than some of the bigvelika issuespitanja
that I work on in the worldsvijet --
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zabavljati moju djecu tijekom večere.
07:30
entertainingzabavan my kidsdjeca at dinnervečera.
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07:33
But what it does is it connectsspaja them
here in the presentpredstaviti with me,
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No, ono što postižem je povezivanje
s njima u stvarnom vremenu
07:36
but it alsotakođer --
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i još --
07:38
and this is the cruxsrž
of transgenerationaltransgeneracijska thinkingmišljenje ethicsetika --
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a to je srž etike
transgeneracijskog razmišljanja --
07:41
it setssetovi them up to how they're
going to interactinterakcija with theirnjihov kidsdjeca
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učim ih kako će se oni ponašati
s njihovom djecom
07:44
and theirnjihov kidsdjeca and theirnjihov kidsdjeca.
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i djecom njihove djece.
07:48
SecondDrugi, futuresbudućnosti thinkingmišljenje.
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Drugo, razmišljanje o budućnosti.
07:50
When we think about the futurebudućnost,
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Kad razmišljamo o budućnosti,
07:52
10, 15 yearsgodina out,
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10, 15 godina unaprijed,
07:54
give me a visionvizija of what the futurebudućnost is.
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dobivam viziju što je budućnost.
07:58
You don't have to give it to me,
but think in your headglava.
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Ne trebate mi je prepričati,
samo zamišljajte u svojoj glavi.
08:00
And what you're probablyvjerojatno going to see
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Ono što ćete vjerojatno vidjeti
08:02
is the dominantdominantan culturalkulturni lensleće
174
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je prevladavajuće kulturno gledište
08:04
that dominatesdominira our thinkingmišljenje
about the futurebudućnost right now:
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koje trenutačno prevladava našim
razmišljanjem o budućnosti:
08:07
technologytehnologija.
176
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1200
tehnologija.
08:09
So when we think about the problemsproblemi,
177
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Kad razmišljamo o problemima,
08:11
we always put it throughkroz
a technologicaltehnološki lensleće,
178
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uvijek ih promatramo
kroz tehnološko gledište
08:13
a tech-centrictehnološki centrive, a techno-utopiatehno-utopije,
and there's nothing wrongpogrešno with that,
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481800
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usmjereno na tehnologiju, tražeći spas
u tehnologiji. I to je u redu,
08:17
but it's something that we have to
really think deeplyduboko about
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ali to je nešto o čemu se
moramo duboko zamisliti
08:20
if we're going to movepotez
on these majorglavni issuespitanja,
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ako želimo pomaknuti
te glavne probleme s mrtve točke
08:23
because it wasn'tnije always like this. Right?
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jer nije uvijek bilo tako, zar ne?
08:25
The ancientsDrevni had theirnjihov way of thinkingmišljenje
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Drevni ljudi su imali svoj
način razmišljanja
08:28
about what the futurebudućnost was.
184
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o tome što je budućnost.
08:31
The ChurchCrkva definitelydefinitivno had theirnjihov ideaideja
of what the futurebudućnost could be,
185
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Crkva je definitivno imala svoju ideju
kakva bi budućnost mogla biti
08:36
and you could actuallyzapravo payplatiti your way
into that futurebudućnost. Right?
186
504560
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i zapravo biste mogli sami održati
svoj put u tu budućnost. Zar ne?
08:39
And luckilysrećom for humanityčovječanstvo,
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Srećom po čovječanstvo,
08:41
we got the scientificznanstvena revolutionrevolucija.
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imamo znanstvenu revoluciju.
08:43
From there, we got the technologytehnologija,
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Iz nje je nastala tehnologija,
08:45
but what has happeneddogodilo --
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a ono što se dogodilo --
08:47
And by the way, this is not a critiquekritika.
191
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usput rečeno, to nije kritika.
08:50
I love technologytehnologija.
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Ja volim tehnologiju.
08:52
Everything in my housekuća talksrazgovori back to me,
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Sve u mojoj kući razgovara sa mnom,
08:54
from my childrendjeca
to my speakerszvučnici to everything.
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od djece do zvučnika i svega ostalog.
08:56
(LaughterSmijeh)
195
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(Smijeh)
08:59
But we'veimamo abdicatedabdicirao the futurebudućnost
from the highvisok priestssvećenici in RomeRome
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Odbacili smo budućnost kakvu su
zamislili visoki svećenici u Rimu
09:05
to the highvisok priestssvećenici of SiliconSilicij ValleyDolina.
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i prihvatili onu visokih svećenika
Silicijske doline.
09:09
So when we think, well,
how are we going to dealdogovor with climateklima
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Pa kad razmišljamo kako ćemo se nositi
s klimatskim promjenama
09:13
or with povertysiromaštvo or homelessnessbeskućništvo,
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ili siromaštvom ili beskućnicima,
09:14
our first reactionreakcija is to think about it
throughkroz a technologytehnologija lensleće.
200
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naša prva reakcija je gledati problem
kroz ono što nudi tehnologija.
09:19
And look, I'm not advocatingzagovaranje
that we go to this guy.
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Ne kažem da bismo trebali
otići do ovog čovjeka.
09:23
I love JoelJoel, don't get me wrongpogrešno,
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1920
Nemojte me krivo razumjeti,
meni se Joel sviđa,
09:26
but I'm not sayingizreka we go to JoelJoel.
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ali ne kažem da bismo trebali
otići k njemu.
09:28
What I'm sayingizreka is we have to rethinkpromisliti
204
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Trebali bismo ponovno razmisliti
09:29
our basebaza assumptionpretpostavka about
only looking at the futurebudućnost in one way,
205
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našu osnovnu pretpostavku o tome da
budućnost gledamo samo na jedan način,
09:34
only looking at it
throughkroz the dominantdominantan lensleće.
206
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2136
i to onaj dominantan.
09:36
Because our problemsproblemi
are so bigvelika and so vastogroman
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Naši problemi su tako veliki
i tako opsežni
09:39
that we need to openotvoren ourselvessebe up.
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da se moramo otvoriti
drugačijim razmišljanjima.
09:41
So that's why I do everything in my powervlast
not to talk about the futurebudućnost.
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Zato radim sve što je u mojoj moći
da ne govorim o budućnosti.
09:46
I talk about futuresbudućnosti.
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Ja govorim o budućnostima.
09:48
It opensotvara the conversationrazgovor again.
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To otvara mogućnosti u razgovoru.
09:50
So when you're sittingsjedenje and thinkingmišljenje
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Pa kad sjedite i razmišljate
09:53
about how do we movepotez forwardnaprijed
on this majorglavni issueizdanje --
213
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kako krenuti naprijed
u tom velikom problemu --
09:56
it could be at home,
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može biti dom,
09:57
it could be at work,
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1976
može biti posao,
09:59
it could be again on the globalglobalno stagefaza --
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može biti nešto na svjetskoj razini --
10:02
don't cutrez yourselfsami off from thinkingmišljenje
about something beyondIznad technologytehnologija as a fixpopraviti
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ne ograničavajte se od razmišljanja o
nečemu što tehnologija ne može popraviti
10:07
because we're more concernedzabrinut
about technologicaltehnološki evolutionevolucija right now
218
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jer mi smo trenutačno zabrinutiji za
tehnološki razvitak
10:10
than we are about moralmoralan evolutionevolucija.
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2136
nego za moralnu evoluciju.
10:12
And unlessosim ako we fixpopraviti for that,
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2016
I ako to ne promijenimo,
10:15
we're not going to be ableu stanju
to get out of short-termismkratkog termism
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nećemo biti u mogućnosti iskočiti
iz kratkoročnosti
10:17
and get to where we want to be.
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i doći tamo gdje želimo biti.
10:19
The finalkonačni, telosTelos thinkingmišljenje.
This comesdolazi from the Greekgrčki rootkorijen.
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Konačno, telos razmišljanje.
Riječ grčkog porijekla.
10:22
UltimateKonačan aimcilj and ultimateultimativno purposesvrha.
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Krajnji cilj i krajnja svrha.
10:24
And it's really askingtraži one questionpitanje:
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I postavlja zaista samo jedno pitanje:
10:28
to what endkraj?
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prema kakvom kraju?
10:30
When was the last time
you askedpitao yourselfsami: To what endkraj?
227
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3016
Kad ste se zadnji put upitali:
"Kamo idem?"
10:33
And when you askedpitao yourselfsami that,
how fardaleko out did you go?
228
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3800
I kad ste se to pitali,
koliko daleko ste bili spremni ići?
10:37
Because long isn't long enoughdovoljno anymoreviše.
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3000
Jer dugo više nije dovoljno dugo.
10:41
ThreeTri, fivepet yearsgodina doesn't cutrez it.
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Tri do pet godina je prekratko.
10:43
It's 30, 40, 50, 100 yearsgodina.
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Govorimo o 30, 40, 50, 100 godina.
10:46
In Homer'sHomer epicEP, "The OdysseyOdiseja,"
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U Homerovom epu "Odiseja",
10:49
OdysseusOdisej had the answerodgovor to his "what endkraj."
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Odisej je morao odgovoriti
na svoje "kamo idem?"
10:52
It was IthacaItaka.
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1400
Odgovor je Itaka.
10:53
It was this boldodvažan visionvizija
of what he wanted --
235
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To je bila njegova vizija onog
što je htio --
10:56
to returnpovratak to PenelopePenelope.
236
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vratiti se Penelopi.
10:57
And I can tell you,
because of the work that I'm doing,
237
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I mogu vam reći, jer se time bavim,
a i vi to intuitivno znate --
mi smo izgubili našu Itaku.
11:00
but alsotakođer you know it intuitivelyintuitivno --
we have lostizgubljen our IthacaItaka.
238
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11:02
We have lostizgubljen our "to what endkraj,"
so we stayboravak on this hamsterhrčak wheelkotač.
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3536
Mi smo izgubili to "kamo idem?"
i ostajemo u kotaču za hrčka.
11:06
And yes, we're tryingtežak
to solveriješiti these problemsproblemi,
240
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I pokušavamo riješiti te probleme,
11:08
but what comesdolazi after we solveriješiti the problemproblem?
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no što dolazi nakon što ih riješimo?
11:12
And unlessosim ako you definedefinirati what comesdolazi after,
people aren'tnisu going to movepotez.
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I dok ne odredite što dolazi nakon toga,
ljudi neće ni prstom maknuti.
11:16
The businessespoduzeća --
this isn't just about businessPoslovni --
243
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Poslovni svijet --
ne radi se samo o njima --
11:18
but the businessespoduzeća that do consistentlydosljedno,
who breakpauza out of short-termismkratkog termism
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poslovni svijet koji je dosljedan u tome,
koji prekida s kratkoročnošću je,
11:22
not surprisinglyiznenađujuče
are family-runobiteljski vođen businessespoduzeća.
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2016
to nije iznenađenje,
obiteljsko poduzetništvo.
11:24
They're transgenerationaltransgeneracijska. They're telosTelos.
They think about the futuresbudućnosti.
246
672240
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Oni su međugeneracijski. Oni su telos.
Oni smišljaju različite budućnosti.
11:27
And this is an adoglas for PatekPatek PhilippePhilippe.
They're 175 yearsgodina oldstar,
247
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Ovo je oglas za Patek Philippe.
Posluju već 175 godina
11:31
and what's amazingnevjerojatan
is that they literallydoslovce embodyutjeloviti
248
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i zapanjujuće je da oni
doslovno utjelovljuju
11:34
this kindljubazan of longpathianlongpathian senseosjećaj
in theirnjihov brandmarka,
249
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taj osjećaj dugoročnosti u svom brendu,
11:37
because, by the way,
you never actuallyzapravo ownvlastiti a PatekPatek PhilippePhilippe,
250
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2896
jer, zapravo, vi nikad niste vlasnik
Patek Philippea,
11:40
and I definitelydefinitivno won'tnavika --
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ja svakako nisam --
11:42
(LaughterSmijeh)
252
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1016
(Smijeh)
11:43
unlessosim ako somebodyneko wants to just
throwbacanje 25,000 dollarsdolara on the stagefaza.
253
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3000
osim ako sad netko ne dobaci
25.000 dolara na pozornicu.
11:46
You merelysamo look after it
for the nextSljedeći generationgeneracija.
254
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3200
Vi samo pazite na njega
za buduće generacije.
11:50
So it's importantvažno that we rememberzapamtiti,
255
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Važno je zapamtiti,
11:53
the futurebudućnost, we treatliječiti it like a nounimenica.
256
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da mi budućnost tretiramo kao imenicu.
11:56
It's not. It's a verbglagol.
257
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Ona to nije. Budućnost je glagol.
11:58
It requirestraži actionakcijski.
258
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Zahtijeva akciju,
12:00
It requirestraži us to pushgurnuti into it.
259
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zahtijeva da uronimo u nju.
12:01
It's not this thing that washespere over us.
260
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1936
To nije nešto što nas prelije.
12:03
It's something that we
actuallyzapravo have totalukupno controlkontrolirati over.
261
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To je nešto nad čim, zapravo,
imamo kontrolu.
Ali u kratkoročnom društvu, imamo
osjećaj da tu kontrolu nemamo.
12:06
But in a short-termkratkoročan societydruštvo,
we endkraj up feelingosjećaj like we don't.
262
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12:09
We feel like we're trappedzarobljena.
263
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Osjećamo se kao u zamci.
12:10
We can pushgurnuti throughkroz that.
264
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1200
Možemo izaći iz nje.
12:14
Now I'm gettinguzimajući more comfortableudobno
265
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Osjećam se malo ugodnije
12:17
in the factčinjenica that at some pointtočka
266
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s činjenicom da ću u nekom trenutku
12:20
in the inevitableneizbježan futurebudućnost,
267
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neizbježne budućnosti
12:23
I will dieumrijeti.
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umrijeti.
12:25
But because of these newnovi waysnačine
of thinkingmišljenje and doing,
269
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Ali s ovim novim načinom
razmišljanja i rada,
12:29
bothoba in the outsideizvan worldsvijet
and alsotakođer with my familyobitelj at home,
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3936
i u vanjskom svijetu i u mojoj obitelji,
12:33
and what I'm leavingnapuštanje my kidsdjeca,
I get more comfortableudobno in that factčinjenica.
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s onim što ostavljam svojoj djeci,
osjećam se ugodnije.
12:36
And it's something that a lot of us
are really uncomfortableneudoban with,
272
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3136
I to je ono zbog čega je
mnogima od nas neugodnije,
12:39
but I'm tellingreći you,
273
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1200
ali kažem vam,
12:41
think it throughkroz.
274
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promislite.
12:43
ApplyPrimijeniti this typetip of thinkingmišljenje
and you can pushgurnuti yourselfsami pastprošlost
275
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2736
Primijenite ovaj način razmišljanja
i možete se odmaknuti
12:46
what's inevitablyneizbježno
very, very uncomfortableneudoban.
276
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od nečeg što je vrlo, vrlo neugodno.
12:48
And it all beginspočinje really
with yourselfsami askingtraži this questionpitanje:
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Sve počinje time da se zapitate
samo jedno pitanje:
12:52
What is your longpathLong Path?
278
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Koji je moj put?
12:55
But I askpitati you, when you askpitati yourselfsami that
279
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Upozoravam vas, kad se to upitate
12:58
now or tonightvečeras or behindiza a steeringupravljanja wheelkotač
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sada ili večeras, dok vozite,
13:01
or in the boardroomupravnim odborima or the situationsituacija roomsoba:
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u sobi za rješavanje kriza
ili dvorani za sastanke:
13:06
pushgurnuti pastprošlost the longpathLong Path,
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usmjerite se na dugoročno,
13:08
quickbrz, oh, what's my longpathLong Path
the nextSljedeći threetri yearsgodina or fivepet yearsgodina?
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kamo idem sljedećih tri do pet godina?
13:11
Try and pushgurnuti pastprošlost your ownvlastiti life if you can
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Pokušajte i odmaknite se od sadašnjeg
načina življenja ako možete
13:15
because it makesmarke you do things
a little bitbit biggerveći
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jer će vam to omogućiti
da učinite malo veće stvari
13:17
than you thought were possiblemoguće.
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nego što ste mislili da možete.
13:20
Yes, we have hugeogroman,
hugeogroman problemsproblemi out there.
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Da, imamo zaista velike probleme oko nas.
13:25
With this processpostupak, with this thinkingmišljenje,
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Ovakvim procesom, načinom razmišljanja,
13:29
I think we can make a differencerazlika.
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mislim da možemo napraviti razliku.
13:31
I think you can make a differencerazlika,
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Mislim da vi možete napraviti razliku
13:33
and I believe in you guys.
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i vjerujem u vas.
13:35
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
13:36
(ApplausePljesak)
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(Pljesak)
Translated by Igor Pureta
Reviewed by Sanda Liker

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - Futurist
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.

Why you should listen

Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.

Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.

His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building. 

In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.

More profile about the speaker
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com

Data provided by TED.

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