Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
Ari Wallach: 3 manieren om voor (erg) lange termijn te plannen
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
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which is a term I made up --
een term die ik zelf bedacht --
werkte ik met mensen
I would sit down with people,
10, 20 jaar vooruit denken."
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
met een CEO samen zat
with a CEO two months ago
our initial conversation.
I want to talk about the next six months."
Laten we de komende 6 maanden bespreken."
that we are facing.
met vele problemen.
that we use right now
die we nu gebruiken
technical work is being done,
technisch werk verricht,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
eerst moeten aanpakken,
aan die grote problemen.
move the needle on those big problems.
There's no bracelets.
en verkopen geen armbanden,
to be against short-termism.
tegen korte-termijndenken.
maar niemand wilde tekenen.
nook and cranny of our reality.
van onze realiteit.
that you're thinking, working on.
waar je aan werkt.
move-the-needle world stuff,
how far out you tend to think
bij hoe ver vooruit je denkt
is wat de CEO ervan weerhoudt
aan te schaffen.
expensive safety equipment.
wat leraars tegenhoudt
one-on-one time with their students.
met elke leerling.
drops out every 26 seconds.
vroegtijdig de middelbare school.
wat het congres tegenhoudt
in here from Congress --
het congres zetelt --
into a real infrastructure bill.
plan rond infrastructuur.
is the I-35W bridge collapse
dertien doden.
We did the Panama Canal.
We maakten het Panama Kanaal.
have eradicated global polio.
the Marshall Plan.
het Marshall Plan.
infrastructure problems and issues.
infrastructurele problemen en kwesties.
lijkt te gebeuren,
past the next tweet or timeline post,
dan de volgende tweet of tijdlijn-post,
their war-torn country,
uit een oorlogsgebied,
and we put them away for life.
en we sluiten ze levenslang op.
without even thinking
to get between them and their job.
bij de toekomstige inwoners.
for a lot of these problems,
voor veel van deze problemen
'zandzak-strategieën'.
sandbag strategies.
no one's put any money into it,
want niemand investeerde erin,
the water level goes down,
het waterpeil zakt,
after storm after storm.
na storm, na storm.
than the one we have right now,
our mental models and our mental maps
onze mentale modellen en ideeën,
is something called "longpath,"
genaamd 'het lange pad',
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
in één, twee, drie.
at some point has done an off-site
al wel eens wat uitwerkte,
and whiteboards,
in here who do that --
die dat dus doen --
everyone forgets about it.
is iedereen het weer vergeten.
Als je geluk hebt, drie maanden.
If you're lucky, three months.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
het is niet een pure actie.
to revisit different ways of thinking
verschillende denkwijzes hanteert,
that you're working on.
waar je mee zit.
those three ways of thinking.
die drie manieren van denken.
kind of looking into this.
for their entire reality
how to do something good in the world
hoe iets goeds te doen,
our birth and our death.
tussen geboorte en dood.
in any bookstore,
om kwesties op grotere schaal.
with some of these major issues.
transgenerational ethics,
how you think about these problems,
over die problemen nadenkt,
in helping to solve them.
in de oplossing ervan.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
voor de Verenigde Naties.
in a very kind of personal way.
op een erg persoonlijke manier.
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
gaan mijn vrouw en ik uit eten.
under the age of seven.
jonger dan zeven jaar.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
hoe rustig zo'n diner is.
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
gewoon eten en ontspannen,
and totally different idea
and take out the iPhone
this transgenerational thinking cap.
trans-generatie-pet op.
because it would be bizarre,
in het restaurant,
I learned it was bizarre.
dat was bizar --
"OK, I can do this."
"Oké, ik zou dat kunnen doen."
if I actually bring some paper
wat papier voor hen meeneem
and I'm making this very personal.
En nu wordt het persoonlijk.
that I work on in the world --
waar ik aan werk:
here in the present with me,
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
in denken over generaties heen -
going to interact with their kids
hun eigen kinderen zullen omgaan,
but think in your head.
about the future right now:
a technological lens,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
en daar is niets mis mee,
really think deeply about
on these major issues,
of what the future could be,
van hoe de toekomst kon uitdraaien,
into that future. Right?
to my speakers to everything.
from the high priests in Rome
van de hogepriesters in Rome,
van Silicon Valley.
how are we going to deal with climate
hoe we met klimaatverandering
through a technology lens.
een technologische lens te kijken.
that we go to this guy.
zoals deze kerel moeten doen.
only looking at the future in one way,
door die dominante lens.
through the dominant lens.
are so big and so vast
om niet te praten over 'de' toekomst.
not to talk about the future.
on this major issue --
met die ene grote kwestie --
about something beyond technology as a fix
tot alleen technologische oplossingen,
about technological evolution right now
meer bezig met technologische evolutie
van het korte-termijndenken
to get out of short-termism
This comes from the Greek root.
Dit heeft Griekse roots.
you asked yourself: To what end?
dat je jezelf afvroeg: waarom?
how far out did you go?
of what he wanted --
van wat hij wou --
because of the work that I'm doing,
vanwege het werk dat ik doe,
we have lost our Ithaca.
we zijn ons Ithaca kwijt.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
dus we blijven maar rondjes draaien.
to solve these problems,
people aren't going to move.
mensen niet in actie schieten.
en dit draait niet alleen daar om --
this isn't just about business --
who break out of short-termism
het korte-termijn denken doorbreken,
are family-run businesses.
They think about the futures.
en overwegen verschillende toekomsten.
They're 175 years old,
Dat merk is 175 jaar oud.
is that they literally embody
in their brand,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
nooit écht een Patek Philippe --
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
op het podium wil gooien.
for the next generation.
voor de volgende generatie.
als een zelfstandig naamwoord.
Het is een werkwoord.
actually have total control over.
hebben we dat gevoel niet.
we end up feeling like we don't.
of thinking and doing,
van denken en doen,
and also with my family at home,
bij mijn familie,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
kom ik daarmee in het reine.
are really uncomfortable with,
velen niet mee om kunnen,
and you can push yourself past
ga je voorbij datgene
very, very uncomfortable.
with yourself asking this question:
met jezelf af te vragen:
the next three years or five years?
gedurende de komende 3 of 5 jaar?
te kijken, als dat lukt,
net wat grootser aan
a little bit bigger
huge problems out there.
gigantische problemen.
met deze denkwijze,
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com