TEDxMidAtlantic
Ari Wallach: 3 ways to plan for the (very) long term
阿里 · 华莱士: 用三种方法规划（非常）长远的未来
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当今，我们更多地基于短期目标和收益做出决定，然而这样的做法会使未来更加难以捉摸。我们怎样才能学会长远地思考，并规划一个更美好的未来？如何在未来的时光里守住这些美好？对此，阿里 · 华莱士（Ari Wallach）分享了三种超越当下的思维策略。
Ari Wallach - Futurist
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Ari Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
我一直在“未来”着，
好吧，这词是我编的。
好吧，这词是我编的。
00:12
So I've been "futuring,"
which is a term I made up --
which is a term I made up --
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（笑声）
00:16
(Laughter)
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3秒钟前刚编的。
00:17
about three seconds ago.
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我畅想未来已经有20年了，
00:18
I've been futuring for about 20 years,
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最开始的时候，我会坐在别人身旁，
00:21
and when I first started,
I would sit down with people,
I would sit down with people,
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说，“嗨，我们来聊聊
10年、20年后吧。”
10年、20年后吧。”
00:24
and say, "Hey,
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
let's talk 10, 20 years out."
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他们说，“好呀。”
00:27
And they'd say, "Great."
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后来我们聊的时间跨度
00:29
And I've been seeing that time horizon
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越来越短，
00:32
get shorter and shorter
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越来越短，
00:34
and shorter,
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就这样，2个月前我遇到一位CEO，
00:35
so much so that I met
with a CEO two months ago
with a CEO two months ago
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我还是说了之前的那套开场白。
00:39
and I said -- we started
our initial conversation.
our initial conversation.
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他说，“我喜欢你做的事情。
但我就想聊聊未来6个月的事情。”
但我就想聊聊未来6个月的事情。”
00:41
He goes, "I love what you do.
I want to talk about the next six months."
I want to talk about the next six months."
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（笑声）
00:45
(Laughter)
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00:48
We have a lot of problems
that we are facing.
that we are facing.
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我们常常面临着许多
位于人类文明的尺度上的问题。
00:51
These are civilizational-scale problems.
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00:55
The issue though is,
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关键在于，
00:57
we can't solve them
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我们无法解决它们，
仅仅依靠我们现有的思维方式
00:59
using the mental models
that we use right now
that we use right now
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是无法解决的。
01:01
to try and solve these problems.
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没错，许多技术性的
工作正在进行中，
工作正在进行中，
01:03
Yes, a lot of great
technical work is being done,
technical work is being done,
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但如果我们真的想前进，
01:06
but there is a problem that
we need to solve for a priori, before,
we need to solve for a priori, before,
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最先需要解决的问题是
01:11
if we want to really
move the needle on those big problems.
move the needle on those big problems.
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01:15
"Short-termism."
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“短视主义”。
对吧？你不能游行，
也没有（标志性的）手环。
也没有（标志性的）手环。
01:16
Right? There's no marches.
There's no bracelets.
There's no bracelets.
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不是说你签个请愿书，
就可以对抗短视主义。
就可以对抗短视主义。
01:19
There's no petitions that you can sign
to be against short-termism.
to be against short-termism.
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我曾起草过一个，然而并没有人签。
01:23
I tried to put one up, and no one signed.
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挺奇怪的。
01:26
It was weird.
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（笑声）
01:27
(Laughter)
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01:29
But it prevents us from doing so much.
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但它会阻碍我们做很多事。
短视主义，出于种种原因，
01:32
Short-termism, for many reasons,
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遍布在我们周围的各个角落。
01:35
has pervaded every
nook and cranny of our reality.
nook and cranny of our reality.
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我想请你们花几秒钟时间，
01:37
I just want you to take a second
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想想你正在思考的问题，
正在从事的事情。
正在从事的事情。
01:39
and just think about an issue
that you're thinking, working on.
that you're thinking, working on.
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可以是私人事物，可以是工作，
01:43
It could be personal, it could be at work
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也可以是世界性的大事情，
01:45
or it could be
move-the-needle world stuff,
move-the-needle world stuff,
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思考一下，你可以把解决方案
01:47
and think about
how far out you tend to think
how far out you tend to think
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考虑到多长远。
01:49
about the solution set for that.
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01:53
Because short-termism prevents the CEO
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CEO出于短视可能不愿意购买
非常昂贵的安全设备。
01:58
from buying really
expensive safety equipment.
expensive safety equipment.
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02:01
It'll hurt the bottom line.
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大问题就来了，
例如“深水地平线号”这样的事故。
02:03
So we get the Deepwater Horizon.
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02:06
Short-termism prevents teachers
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老师们出于短视而不愿意
花时间在一对一教学上。
02:09
from spending quality
one-on-one time with their students.
one-on-one time with their students.
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因此目前在美国，
02:12
So right now in America,
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每26秒就有一个高中生退学。
02:14
a high school student
drops out every 26 seconds.
drops out every 26 seconds.
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02:19
Short-termism prevents Congress --
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因为短视，国会——
如果有谁是在国会工作的，
我先说句抱歉——
我先说句抱歉——
02:22
sorry if there's anyone
in here from Congress --
in here from Congress --
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（笑声）
02:24
(Laughter)
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其实我也没那么抱歉——
02:26
or not really that sorry --
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（笑声）
02:28
(Laughter)
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没有通过一个基础设施议案，
02:30
from putting money
into a real infrastructure bill.
into a real infrastructure bill.
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从而导致数年前密西西比河上
02:33
So what we get
is the I-35W bridge collapse
is the I-35W bridge collapse
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I-35W桥梁的坍塌，
02:36
over the Mississippi a few years ago,
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造成了13人死亡。
02:38
13 killed.
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02:40
It wasn't always like this.
We did the Panama Canal.
We did the Panama Canal.
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但也有例外情况。
我们建造了巴拿马运河。
我们建造了巴拿马运河。
02:44
We pretty much
have eradicated global polio.
have eradicated global polio.
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我们基本在世界范围内
消灭了小儿麻痹症。
消灭了小儿麻痹症。
我们修建了横贯大陆的铁路，
实施了马歇尔计划。
实施了马歇尔计划。
02:46
We did the transcontinental railroad,
the Marshall Plan.
the Marshall Plan.
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02:50
And it's not just big, physical
infrastructure problems and issues.
infrastructure problems and issues.
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然而这样的计划并不限于大型的
实体基础设施问题。
实体基础设施问题。
还有女性的选举权、投票权等。
02:54
Women's suffrage, the right to vote.
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但在我们短视的时代，
02:56
But in our short-termist time,
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一切事情都感觉发生在当下，
02:59
where everything seems to happen right now
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我们想到的只有下一条推特
或者时间线上的帖子，
或者时间线上的帖子，
03:02
and we can only think out
past the next tweet or timeline post,
past the next tweet or timeline post,
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我们的反应过于迅速。
03:06
we get hyper-reactionary.
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我们都做了什么？
03:08
So what do we do?
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03:10
We take people who are fleeing
their war-torn country,
their war-torn country,
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对于躲避战乱的人，
我们追捕他们。
03:14
and we go after them.
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我们抓捕小毒贩，把他们终身监禁。
03:15
We take low-level drug offenders,
and we put them away for life.
and we put them away for life.
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我们不假思索地盖起独栋别墅，
03:19
And then we build McMansions
without even thinking
without even thinking
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却没有考虑人们将如何
从那里出发去上班。
从那里出发去上班。
03:21
about how people are going
to get between them and their job.
to get between them and their job.
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都想赚点快钱。
03:24
It's a quick buck.
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03:26
Now, the reality is,
for a lot of these problems,
for a lot of these problems,
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如今的现实是，对于许多类似的问题
都有技术层面的解决方案，
03:29
there are some technical fixes,
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真的很多。
03:31
a lot of them.
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而我将它们称为“沙袋策略”。
03:33
I call these technical fixes
sandbag strategies.
sandbag strategies.
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想象一下，风雨将至，
03:36
So you know there's a storm coming,
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由于没有经费进行维护，
防洪堤即将崩溃，
防洪堤即将崩溃，
03:38
the levee is broken,
no one's put any money into it,
no one's put any money into it,
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你只能用沙袋把家围起来
03:41
you surround your home with sandbags.
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你猜怎么着？它们还挺管用。
03:43
And guess what? It works.
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03:46
Storm goes away,
the water level goes down,
the water level goes down,
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等到暴风雨过去，水位下降，
你再把沙袋挪走，
03:48
you get rid of the sandbags,
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每当暴风雨来临你都这么干。
03:50
and you do this storm
after storm after storm.
after storm after storm.
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而危及也正潜藏于此。
03:53
And here's the insidious thing.
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03:56
A sandbag strategy
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沙袋策略
能让你继续当选。
03:58
can get you reelected.
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04:00
A sandbag strategy
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沙袋策略
可以让你的季度报表很漂亮。
04:01
can help you make your quarterly numbers.
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04:06
Now, if we want to move forward
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接下来，如果我们想要迈入
一个更美好的未来，
04:09
into a different future
than the one we have right now,
than the one we have right now,
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毕竟我并不觉得我们达到了——
04:12
because I don't think we've hit --
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2016年远不是人类文明的顶峰。
04:14
2016 is not peak civilization.
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（笑声）
04:16
(Laughter)
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我们还有很多事情可以做。
04:17
There's some more we can do.
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但我的观点是，只有当我们摆脱
在我们思维模型和
在我们思维模型和
04:19
But my argument is that unless we shift
our mental models and our mental maps
our mental models and our mental maps
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思维地图上的短视时，
04:23
on how we think about the short,
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我们才可能见证美好的来临。
04:26
it's not going to happen.
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因此我创立了名为“长路径”的理论，
04:28
So what I've developed
is something called "longpath,"
is something called "longpath,"
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这也是一种实践。
04:31
and it's a practice.
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注意 “长路径”并不是一个
一劳永逸的做法。
一劳永逸的做法。
04:32
And longpath isn't
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
a kind of one-and-done exercise.
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我相信在座的各位都曾经
04:36
I'm sure everyone here
at some point has done an off-site
at some point has done an off-site
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用即时贴和白板做过许多计划，
04:39
with a lot of Post-It notes
and whiteboards,
and whiteboards,
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你们制定出——
04:41
and you do --
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并不是针对你们中间做
咨询服务的啊——
咨询服务的啊——
04:44
no offense to the consultants
in here who do that --
in here who do that --
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你们也制定出长期计划，
04:46
and you do a long-term plan,
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然后两周之后就把它
抛到九霄云外。
抛到九霄云外。
04:48
and then two weeks later,
everyone forgets about it.
everyone forgets about it.
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04:52
Right? Or a week later.
If you're lucky, three months.
If you're lucky, three months.
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是吧？或者干脆一周就忘，
幸运的话持续三个月。
幸运的话持续三个月。
04:56
It's a practice because
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
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这些小事情，并不是非做不可，
但同时这也是一个你针对
每一个重大决定
每一个重大决定
05:00
It's a process where you have
to revisit different ways of thinking
to revisit different ways of thinking
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不断重温不同的思维方式的过程。
05:04
for every major decision
that you're working on.
that you're working on.
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我想总结以下3种思考方式。
05:06
So I want to go through
those three ways of thinking.
those three ways of thinking.
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05:09
So the first: transgenerational thinking.
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第一种是：跨代际的思考。
05:13
I love the philosophers:
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我热爱哲学家们：
柏拉图，苏格拉底，
哈贝马斯，海德格尔。
哈贝马斯，海德格尔。
05:15
Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.
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我从小就很喜欢他们。
05:17
I was raised on them.
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05:20
But they all did one thing
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但他们都做了一件
在我真正开始思考它之前
05:22
that didn't actually seem like a big deal
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看起来很不起眼的事。
05:24
until I really started
kind of looking into this.
kind of looking into this.
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他们都在寻找
05:26
And they all took,
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某种评价准则，
05:28
as a unit of measure
for their entire reality
for their entire reality
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来判断什么叫品德高尚，
05:31
of what it meant to be virtuous and good,
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究其一生，
05:33
the single lifespan,
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05:35
from birth to death.
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直至死亡。
05:37
But here's a problem with these issues:
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然而这些看似合乎情理的话题
存在一个问题，
05:39
they stack up on top of us,
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那就是，我们只有在
有生之年做出好事，
有生之年做出好事，
05:41
because the only way we know
how to do something good in the world
how to do something good in the world
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才能悟到如何做一件好事。
05:44
is if we do it between
our birth and our death.
our birth and our death.
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我们生来便被如此设定。
05:46
That's what we're programmed to do.
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当你来到任何一家自助书店，
05:48
If you go to the self-help section
in any bookstore,
in any bookstore,
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一切可以自己决定。
05:50
it's all about you.
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05:53
Which is great,
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这非常好，
除非你需要解决这样的大问题。
05:55
unless you're dealing
with some of these major issues.
with some of these major issues.
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05:59
And so with transgenerational thinking,
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拥有了跨代际的思维方式，
06:03
which is really kind of
transgenerational ethics,
transgenerational ethics,
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或者说实际上是跨代际的
伦理与准则，
伦理与准则，
你将能够扩展你对这些问题的看法，
06:05
you're able to expand
how you think about these problems,
how you think about these problems,
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明确你在解决它们的
过程中扮演的角色。
过程中扮演的角色。
06:09
what is your role
in helping to solve them.
in helping to solve them.
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06:13
Now, this isn't something that just has to
be done at the Security Council chamber.
be done at the Security Council chamber.
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这并不是只能在联合国安理会的
会议厅里解决的事情。
会议厅里解决的事情。
06:18
It's something that you can do
in a very kind of personal way.
in a very kind of personal way.
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你完全可以用个人的方式处理它。
幸运的话，每隔一段时间
我都会和妻子出去吃一顿饭，
我都会和妻子出去吃一顿饭，
06:21
So every once in a while, if I'm lucky,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
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我们有三个不到七岁的孩子。
06:26
and we have three children
under the age of seven.
under the age of seven.
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所以你能想得到那将是一顿
非常和平，安静的晚饭。
非常和平，安静的晚饭。
06:29
So you can imagine
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
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（笑声）
06:31
(Laughter)
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我们坐下来准备点餐，
我一心只想着能安静地吃东西，
我一心只想着能安静地吃东西，
06:33
So we sit down and literally
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
all I want to do is just eat and chill,
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然而对于我们的计划，
06:38
and my kids have a completely
and totally different idea
and totally different idea
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孩子们却有着完全不同的想法。
06:41
of what we're going to be doing.
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因此，我想到的第一个办法就是
06:43
And so my first idea
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“沙袋策略”，对吧？
06:45
is my sandbag strategy, right?
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其实就是从口袋里掏出iphone，
06:47
It's to go into my pocket
and take out the iPhone
and take out the iPhone
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让他们看《冰雪奇缘》，
06:49
and give them "Frozen"
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或是给他们玩畅销游戏。
06:51
or some other bestselling game thing.
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06:55
And then I stop
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然后我打住了，
接下来不得不在某种程度上
进入跨代际的思考状态。
进入跨代际的思考状态。
06:58
and I have to kind of put on
this transgenerational thinking cap.
this transgenerational thinking cap.
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我知道在餐馆里这样做很诡异，
07:03
I don't do this in the restaurant,
because it would be bizarre,
because it would be bizarre,
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然而我身不由己——
07:06
but I have to --
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我试了一次，对，我就是这样
发现了它有多么诡异的。
发现了它有多么诡异的。
07:07
I did it once, and that's how
I learned it was bizarre.
I learned it was bizarre.
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（笑声）
07:10
(Laughter)
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然后你得告诉自己，“我能做到”。
07:11
And you have to kind of think,
"OK, I can do this."
"OK, I can do this."
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07:16
But what is this teaching them?
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可是这能教会他们什么呢？
07:19
So what does it mean
if I actually bring some paper
if I actually bring some paper
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所以如果我真的带上纸笔，
或是与他们交谈，会发生什么呢？
07:22
or engage with them in conversation?
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这很困难，况且我在把它
搞得个人化。
搞得个人化。
07:23
It's hard. It's not easy,
and I'm making this very personal.
and I'm making this very personal.
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比起我在从事的
07:26
It's actually more traumatic
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世界上的大问题，
让孩子们在晚餐时娱乐
让孩子们在晚餐时娱乐
07:28
than some of the big issues
that I work on in the world --
that I work on in the world --
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可能带来更大的负面后果。
07:30
entertaining my kids at dinner.
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07:33
But what it does is it connects them
here in the present with me,
here in the present with me,
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但它的功用是，在此时此刻
将我和孩子们连结为一体，
将我和孩子们连结为一体，
而且——
07:36
but it also --
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这正是代际伦理思想的关键——
07:38
and this is the crux
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
of transgenerational thinking ethics --
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帮助他们认识到如何与孩子互动，
07:41
it sets them up to how they're
going to interact with their kids
going to interact with their kids
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子子孙孙，始终如此。
07:44
and their kids and their kids.
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07:48
Second, futures thinking.
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第二：面向未来思考。
07:50
When we think about the future,
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当我们以10年，15年的尺度，
去思考未来时，
07:52
10, 15 years out,
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07:54
give me a vision of what the future is.
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我们将得到一个未来的愿景。
07:58
You don't have to give it to me,
but think in your head.
but think in your head.
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不必说出来，但你可以想一想。
你将有可能
08:00
And what you're probably going to see
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透过它们观察世界，
08:02
is the dominant cultural lens
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并任之引领我们的想象的是：
08:04
that dominates our thinking
about the future right now:
about the future right now:
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科学技术。
08:07
technology.
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08:09
So when we think about the problems,
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当我们考虑问题时，
我们总是从科技的角度出发，
08:11
we always put it through
a technological lens,
a technological lens,
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以科技为核心，实现科技乌托邦，
这些并没有什么问题，
这些并没有什么问题，
08:13
a tech-centric, a techno-utopia,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
and there's nothing wrong with that,
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但如果我们要确实地解决这些大问题，
08:17
but it's something that we have to
really think deeply about
really think deeply about
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就需要三思而行，
08:20
if we're going to move
on these major issues,
on these major issues,
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毕竟没有万全之策，对吧？
08:23
because it wasn't always like this. Right?
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古人自有他们自己
08:25
The ancients had their way of thinking
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思考未来的方式。
08:28
about what the future was.
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08:31
The Church definitely had their idea
of what the future could be,
of what the future could be,
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教会一定也有它们对于未来的看法，
实际上你完全可以自己构想一下
未来的样子，对么？
未来的样子，对么？
08:36
and you could actually pay your way
into that future. Right?
into that future. Right?
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对于人类而言，幸运的是，
08:39
And luckily for humanity,
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我们迎来了科学革命。
08:41
we got the scientific revolution.
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由此我们获得了科学技术，
08:43
From there, we got the technology,
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但发生的事情是——
08:45
but what has happened --
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顺便澄清一下， 我无意批判。
08:47
And by the way, this is not a critique.
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08:50
I love technology.
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我爱科技。
我家的所有东西，从孩子到扬声器，
08:52
Everything in my house talks back to me,
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都可以跟我对话。
08:54
from my children
to my speakers to everything.
to my speakers to everything.
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（笑声）
08:56
(Laughter)
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然而我们只是把未来的掌控权
08:59
But we've abdicated the future
from the high priests in Rome
from the high priests in Rome
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从罗马教皇转移到了“硅谷教皇”。
09:05
to the high priests of Silicon Valley.
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09:09
So when we think, well,
how are we going to deal with climate
how are we going to deal with climate
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因此，当我们思考如何应对气候变化
或是贫困和无家可归问题，
09:13
or with poverty or homelessness,
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我们的第一反应是以科技为武器。
09:14
our first reaction is to think about it
through a technology lens.
through a technology lens.
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09:19
And look, I'm not advocating
that we go to this guy.
that we go to this guy.
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请注意，我并不是
在鼓动大家去投靠他。
在鼓动大家去投靠他。
我爱Joel，但别误会，
09:23
I love Joel, don't get me wrong,
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09:26
but I'm not saying we go to Joel.
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这并不代表我们都要投靠Joel。
我的意思是，我们需要质疑
09:28
What I'm saying is we have to rethink
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以单一视角看未来的大前提，
09:29
our base assumption about
only looking at the future in one way,
only looking at the future in one way,
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和被主流看法所左右的现状。
09:34
only looking at it
through the dominant lens.
through the dominant lens.
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我们面临的问题很大，
覆盖范围非常广，
覆盖范围非常广，
09:36
Because our problems
are so big and so vast
are so big and so vast
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因而我们需要开放的视角。
09:39
that we need to open ourselves up.
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这就是为什么，
我尽力不讨论单一的未来，
我尽力不讨论单一的未来，
09:41
So that's why I do everything in my power
not to talk about the future.
not to talk about the future.
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09:46
I talk about futures.
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而是未来的无限可能。
这样可以再度放开我们的对话。
09:48
It opens the conversation again.
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因此，你完全可以在家
09:50
So when you're sitting and thinking
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在上班的时候，
09:53
about how do we move forward
on this major issue --
on this major issue --
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以至在国际舞台上，
09:56
it could be at home,
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安静专注地
09:57
it could be at work,
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思考我们该如何解决这个问题，
09:59
it could be again on the global stage --
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发散你的思维，
尝试科技以外的事物吧，
尝试科技以外的事物吧，
10:02
don't cut yourself off from thinking
about something beyond technology as a fix
about something beyond technology as a fix
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因为相较于道德的发展，
10:07
because we're more concerned
about technological evolution right now
about technological evolution right now
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我们当今更容易关注的
是科技的发展。
是科技的发展。
10:10
than we are about moral evolution.
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当我们局限在科技视角时，
10:12
And unless we fix for that,
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我们将无法摆脱短视的把控
10:15
we're not going to be able
to get out of short-termism
to get out of short-termism
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以到达我们期待的目的地。
10:17
and get to where we want to be.
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第三种，则是目的论思维，
它起源于希腊。
它起源于希腊。
10:19
The final, telos thinking.
This comes from the Greek root.
This comes from the Greek root.
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旨在寻求终极的目的。
10:22
Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.
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它实际上就在不断提出问题：
10:24
And it's really asking one question:
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10:28
to what end?
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最后怎么样？
10:30
When was the last time
you asked yourself: To what end?
you asked yourself: To what end?
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最近一次你问自己“最后怎么样”
是什么时候了？
是什么时候了？
你又在何时问过自己
你已经走了多远？
你已经走了多远？
10:33
And when you asked yourself that,
how far out did you go?
how far out did you go?
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10:37
Because long isn't long enough anymore.
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3000
因为曾经的漫长，如今已不再漫长。
10:41
Three, five years doesn't cut it.
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1896
区区三五年已经远远不够了，
而是要放眼30，40，50，甚至100年。
10:43
It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
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10:46
In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"
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在荷马史诗《奥德赛》中，
奥德修斯对于“最后怎么样”
有自己的答案，
有自己的答案，
10:49
Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."
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是来到伊萨卡岛，
10:52
It was Ithaca.
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1400
来到美丽的帕尼罗珀身边
10:53
It was this bold vision
of what he wanted --
of what he wanted --
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这样大胆的设想。
10:56
to return to Penelope.
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然而经由我的工作经历，
10:57
And I can tell you,
because of the work that I'm doing,
because of the work that I'm doing,
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实际上你也可以直观地感受到
我们的”伊萨卡岛“已经沦陷。
我们的”伊萨卡岛“已经沦陷。
11:00
but also you know it intuitively --
we have lost our Ithaca.
we have lost our Ithaca.
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我们不再追问“最后怎么样”，因而
就好像被困在在的仓鼠轮上。
就好像被困在在的仓鼠轮上。
11:02
We have lost our "to what end,"
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
so we stay on this hamster wheel.
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确实，我们正在尝试解决这些问题，
11:06
And yes, we're trying
to solve these problems,
to solve these problems,
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但是当它们被解决后，
又会发生什么呢？
又会发生什么呢？
11:08
but what comes after we solve the problem?
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11:12
And unless you define what comes after,
people aren't going to move.
people aren't going to move.
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如果你不为下一步作出定义，
人们是不会行动的。
人们是不会行动的。
11:16
The businesses --
this isn't just about business --
this isn't just about business --
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就商业活动而言——
（而又不限于商业）
（而又不限于商业）
那些能够避免短视
而长久维系的企业
而长久维系的企业
11:18
but the businesses that do consistently,
who break out of short-termism
who break out of short-termism
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毫不意外的都是家族企业。
11:22
not surprisingly
are family-run businesses.
are family-run businesses.
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它们有跨时代的理念，
追根究底，并思考未来。
追根究底，并思考未来。
11:24
They're transgenerational. They're telos.
They think about the futures.
They think about the futures.
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这是瑞士百达翡丽手表的广告，
它已经有175年历史了，
它已经有175年历史了，
11:27
And this is an ad for Patek Philippe.
They're 175 years old,
They're 175 years old,
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但最令人惊异的是，
他们实际上在品牌中
他们实际上在品牌中
11:31
and what's amazing
is that they literally embody
is that they literally embody
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熔铸了这种“长路径’的意识，
11:34
this kind of longpathian sense
in their brand,
in their brand,
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因为，你实际上并不会真正地
拥有一块百达翡丽表，
拥有一块百达翡丽表，
11:37
because, by the way,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
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而我更是肯定不会有——
11:40
and I definitely won't --
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（笑声）
11:42
(Laughter)
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除非有人就想砸25000美金给我。
11:43
unless somebody wants to just
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
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在下一代当中没准你能找到。
11:46
You merely look after it
for the next generation.
for the next generation.
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11:50
So it's important that we remember,
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所以大家要记住的是，
我们总认为“未来”是一个名词。
11:53
the future, we treat it like a noun.
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然而并非如此，它是一个动词。
11:56
It's not. It's a verb.
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它需要我们付出行动，
11:58
It requires action.
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需要我们的推动力。
12:00
It requires us to push into it.
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它并不会如海浪般冲刷我们。
12:01
It's not this thing that washes over us.
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相反，它是可以被我们完全掌控的。
12:03
It's something that we
actually have total control over.
actually have total control over.
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但是身处一个短视的社会，我们开始
怀疑自己把握未来的能力。
怀疑自己把握未来的能力。
12:06
But in a short-term society,
we end up feeling like we don't.
we end up feeling like we don't.
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我们感到自己受到缚束。
12:09
We feel like we're trapped.
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实际上，我们可以实现超越。
12:10
We can push through that.
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12:14
Now I'm getting more comfortable
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现在我已经能够逐渐接受
12:17
in the fact that at some point
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在未来的某个时候
12:20
in the inevitable future,
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不可避免地，
12:23
I will die.
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我会死掉。
12:25
But because of these new ways
of thinking and doing,
of thinking and doing,
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但正是由于这些思考
和行动的新方法，
和行动的新方法，
无论是在家里还是外面的世界，
12:29
both in the outside world
and also with my family at home,
and also with my family at home,
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以及传授给孩子们的时候，
我实际上能收获更多的愉悦。
我实际上能收获更多的愉悦。
12:33
and what I'm leaving my kids,
I get more comfortable in that fact.
I get more comfortable in that fact.
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它是我们许多人并不喜欢的，
12:36
And it's something that a lot of us
are really uncomfortable with,
are really uncomfortable with,
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但我还是想劝告各位，
12:39
but I'm telling you,
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12:41
think it through.
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再来考虑一下。
应用这种思维方式，并从中
使自己获得超越的过程，
使自己获得超越的过程，
12:43
Apply this type of thinking
and you can push yourself past
and you can push yourself past
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存在着不可避免的不适感。
12:46
what's inevitably
very, very uncomfortable.
very, very uncomfortable.
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但你可以从质问自己
“长期目标是什么”
“长期目标是什么”
12:48
And it all begins really
with yourself asking this question:
with yourself asking this question:
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12:52
What is your longpath?
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来迈出第一步。
12:55
But I ask you, when you ask yourself that
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我希望你做到的是。
无论是在此刻或是今晚。
或者是在你开车的时候。
或者是在你开车的时候。
12:58
now or tonight or behind a steering wheel
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13:01
or in the boardroom or the situation room:
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在会议室，还是在指挥室：
13:06
push past the longpath,
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用前面所述的“长路径”思维，
确定你在接下来三到五年的规划。
13:08
quick, oh, what's my longpath
the next three years or five years?
the next three years or five years?
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尝试去超越自己过往的生活，
13:11
Try and push past your own life if you can
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因为这样将会帮助你
13:15
because it makes you do things
a little bit bigger
a little bit bigger
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做出以前力所不能及的事情。
13:17
than you thought were possible.
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13:20
Yes, we have huge,
huge problems out there.
huge problems out there.
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是的，我们需要面对
大得可怕的问题。
大得可怕的问题。
13:25
With this process, with this thinking,
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但经历了这样的思维过程，
13:29
I think we can make a difference.
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我认为我们能够做出改变。
13:31
I think you can make a difference,
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我相信你也可以，
我相信你们。
13:33
and I believe in you guys.
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谢谢。
13:35
Thank you.
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(掌声)
13:36
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ari Wallach - FuturistAri Wallach helps leaders more consciously and ethically shape tomorrow.
Why you should listen
Ari Wallach challenges the perception that "the future" is solely a technology-fueled project occurring at some far off point in time. By exploring the underpinnings of civilizational potential over the ages he shows the future is actually manifesting right now -- and that it is very much human.
Wallach founded Synthesis Corp. in 2008 with the belief that individuals, organizations and leaders have more power to shape what comes next than they realize. Synthesis Corp. has created and built full-scale future focused innovation labs and strategies for organizations ranging from CNN and the US State Department to Auburn Seminary and the Pew Research Center. Most recently, Wallach and his team created and launched the global innovation lab for the UN Refugee Agency as well as their US focused The Hive. As founder of Fast Company magazine's "FastCo Futures with Ari Wallach," Wallach convenes and hosts conversations with world-changing thinkers and doers focused on future-proofing their business.
His original Longpath essay in Wired magazine about the need to move beyond short-termism to ensure social progress brought Wallach to the forefront of conversations in the sustainability, urban planning and long-range forecasting sectors. As an adjunct Professor at Columbia University, Wallach lectures on the impact of technology on intertemporally resilient public policy and democratic institution building.
In the summer of 2017, Longpath will launch as a networked action-tank focused on helping individuals and organizational leaders make critical decisions that take into account transgenerational impact.
Ari Wallach | Speaker | TED.com