TED2012
Jean-Baptiste Michel: The mathematics of history
Jean-Baptiste Michel: Matematika povijesti
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Što matematika može reći o povijesti? Prema TED Fellowu Jean-Baptistu Michelu, dosta toga. Od jezičnih promjena do smrtonosnosti ratova, on pokazuje kako digitalizirana povijest tek počinje otkrivati duboke temeljne obrasce.
Jean-Baptiste Michel - Data researcher
Jean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world. Full bio
Jean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
So it turns out that mathematics is a very powerful language.
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Ispostavilo se da je matematika vrlo moćan jezik.
00:19
It has generated considerable insight in physics,
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Ostvarila je značajan uvid u fiziku,
00:21
in biology and economics,
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biologiju i ekonomiju,
00:23
but not that much in the humanities and in history.
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no baš i ne prevelik u humanističke znanosti i povijest.
00:26
I think there's a belief that it's just impossible,
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Mislim da postoji uvjerenje da je to naprosto nemoguće,
00:29
that you cannot quantify the doings of mankind,
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da ne možete kvantificirati ljudska djela,
00:31
that you cannot measure history.
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da ne možete mjeriti povijest.
00:34
But I don't think that's right.
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No ja ne mislim da je to točno.
00:35
I want to show you a couple of examples why.
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Želim vam pokazati nekoliko primjera zašto.
00:37
So my collaborator Erez and I were considering the following fact:
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Dakle, moj suradnik Erez i ja
razmatrali smo sljedeću činjenicu:
razmatrali smo sljedeću činjenicu:
00:40
that two kings separated by centuries
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dva će kralja razdvojena stoljećima
00:43
will speak a very different language.
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govoriti vrlo različitim jezikom.
00:45
That's a powerful historical force.
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To je snažna povijesna sila.
00:47
So the king of England, Alfred the Great,
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Tako će kralj Engleske Alfred Veliki
00:49
will use a vocabulary and grammar
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koristiti vokabular i gramatiku
00:50
that is quite different from the king of hip hop, Jay-Z.
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koji se prilično razlikuju od onih
kralja hip hopa, Jay-Z-ja.
kralja hip hopa, Jay-Z-ja.
00:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:56
Now it's just the way it is.
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To je naprosto tako.
00:58
Language changes over time, and it's a powerful force.
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Jezik se mijenja s vremenom i to je snažna sila.
01:00
So Erez and I wanted to know more about that.
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Erez i ja smo željeli saznati više o tome.
01:03
So we paid attention to a particular grammatical rule, past-tense conjugation.
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Pa smo obratili pozornost na posebno gramatičko pravilo, konjugaciju prošlog vremena.
01:06
So you just add "ed" to a verb at the end to signify the past.
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Znači, samo na kraj glagola dodate "ed" kako biste označili prošlost.
01:10
"Today I walk. Yesterday I walked."
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"Danas hodam. Jučer sam hodao."
01:11
But some verbs are irregular.
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No neki su glagoli nepravilni.
01:13
"Yesterday I thought."
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"Jučer sam mislio."
01:14
Now what's interesting about that
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Kod toga je zanimljivo
01:16
is irregular verbs between Alfred and Jay-Z have become more regular.
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to da su nepravilni glagoli između Alfreda i Jay-Z-a postali pravilniji.
01:20
Like the verb "to wed" that you see here has become regular.
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Tako je glagol "vjenčati" koji ovdje vidite postao pravilan.
01:22
So Erez and I followed the fate of over 100 irregular verbs
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Stoga smo Erez i ja pratili sudbinu više od 100 nepravilnih glagola
01:26
through 12 centuries of English language,
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tijekom 12 stoljeća postojanja engleskog jezika
01:28
and we saw that there's actually a very simple mathematical pattern
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i uvidjeli smo da postoji zapravo vrlo jednostavan matematički uzorak
01:31
that captures this complex historical change,
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koji obuhvaća tu složenu povijesnu promjenu,
01:34
namely, if a verb is 100 times more frequent than another,
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to jest, ako je neki glagol 100 puta učestaliji od drugih,
01:37
it regularizes 10 times slower.
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on postaje pravilan 10 puta sporije.
01:40
That's a piece of history, but it comes in a mathematical wrapping.
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To je djelić povijesti, no umotan u matematiku.
01:44
Now in some cases math can even help explain,
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U nekim slučajevima matematika može čak pomoći objasniti
01:48
or propose explanations for, historical forces.
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ili predložiti objašnjenja nekih povijesnih sila.
01:51
So here Steve Pinker and I
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Stoga smo Steve Pinker i ja
01:52
were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries.
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razmatrali opseg ratova tijekom posljednja dva stoljeća.
01:56
There's actually a well-known regularity to them
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Zapravo, za njih postoji poznata pravilnost
01:59
where the number of wars that are 100 times deadlier
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gdje je broj ratova koji su 100 puta smrtonosniji
02:02
is 10 times smaller.
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10 puta manji.
02:04
So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War,
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Dakle, postoji 30 ratova koji su jednako smrtonosni poput Šestodnevnog rata,
02:08
but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier --
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no samo četiri su rata 100 puta smrtonosnija -
02:10
like World War I.
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poput Prvog svjetskog rata.
02:12
So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that?
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Kakav povijesni mehanizam može to proizvesti?
02:15
What's the origin of this?
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Koje je porijeklo toga?
02:17
So Steve and I, through mathematical analysis,
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Tako da smo Steve i ja, putem matematičke analize,
02:19
propose that there's actually a very simple phenomenon at the root of this,
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predložili da je u korijenu toga zapravo vrlo jednostavan fenomen,
02:24
which lies in our brains.
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koji leži u našim mozgovima.
02:25
This is a very well-known feature
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To je poznata značajka
02:27
in which we perceive quantities in relative ways --
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prema kojoj spoznajemo količine na relativne načine -
02:30
quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound.
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količine poput jačine svjetlosti ili glasnoće zvuka.
02:34
For instance, committing 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot.
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Na primjer, poslati 10.000 vojnika u sljedeću bitku zvuči mnogo.
02:39
It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously.
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Relativno je ogromno ako ste već poslali 1000 vojnika.
02:43
But it doesn't sound so much,
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No to ne zvuči tako puno,
02:45
it's not relatively enough, it won't make a difference
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nije relativno dovoljno, neće ništa značiti
02:48
if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously.
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ako ste već poslali 100.000 vojnika.
02:51
So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities,
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Tako da vidite da zbog načina na koji doživljavamo količine,
02:54
as the war drags on,
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kako se rat oteže,
02:56
the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties
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broj vojnika poslanih u njega i žrtava
02:59
will increase not linearly --
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neće se povećavati linearno -
03:01
like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 --
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kao na primjer 10.000, 11.000, 12.000 -
03:03
but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000.
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nego eksponencijalno - 10.000, kasnije 20.000, zatim 40.000.
03:07
And so that explains this pattern that we've seen before.
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To objašnjava uzorak koji smo ranije vidjeli.
03:10
So here mathematics is able to link a well-known feature of the individual mind
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Tako matematika može povezati poznatu značajku pojedinog uma
03:16
with a long-term historical pattern
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s dugotrajnim povijesnim uzorkom
03:19
that unfolds over centuries and across continents.
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koji se odvija tijekom stoljeća i diljem kontinenata.
03:21
So these types of examples, today there are just a few of them,
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To su te vrste primjera, danas ih je samo nekolicina,
03:25
but I think in the next decade they will become commonplace.
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no mislim da će u sljedećem desetljeću postati uobičajeni.
03:28
The reason for that is that the historical record
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Razlog je tome to što povijesni zapisi
03:31
is becoming digitized at a very fast pace.
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postaju vrlo brzo digitalizirani.
03:33
So there's about 130 million books
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Postoji oko 130 milijuna knjiga
03:36
that have been written since the dawn of time.
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napisanih od prapočela vremena.
03:38
Companies like Google have digitized many of them --
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Tvrtke poput Googlea digitalizirale su mnoge od njih
03:40
above 20 million actually.
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zapravo, oko 20 milijuna.
03:42
And when the stuff of history is available in digital form,
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A kad je povijesna građa dostupna u digitalnom formatu,
03:46
it makes it possible for a mathematical analysis
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postaje moguće matematičkom analizom
03:48
to very quickly and very conveniently
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vrlo brzo i jednostavno
03:50
review trends in our history and our culture.
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pregledati trendove unutar naše povijesti i kulture.
03:53
So I think in the next decade,
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Mislim da će se u sljedećem desetljeću
03:56
the sciences and the humanities will come closer together
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prirodne i humanističke znanosti približiti jedne drugima
03:58
to be able to answer deep questions about mankind.
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kako bi mogle dati odgovore na značajna pitanja o čovječanstvu.
04:02
And I think that mathematics will be a very powerful language to do that.
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Mislim i da će matematika biti vrlo moćan jezik kojim će se to činiti.
04:06
It will be able to reveal new trends in our history,
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Moći će otkriti nove trendove unutar naše povijesti,
04:09
sometimes to explain them,
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katkad da bi ih objasnila,
04:11
and maybe even in the future to predict what's going to happen.
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možda čak i u budućnosti predvidjela što će se dogoditi.
04:14
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
04:16
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jean-Baptiste Michel - Data researcherJean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world.
Why you should listen
Jean-Baptiste Michel holds joint academic appointments at Harvard (FQEB Fellow) and Google (Visiting Faculty). His research focusses on using large volumes of data as tools that help better understand the world around us -- from the way diseases progress in patients over years, to the way cultures change in human societies over centuries. With his colleague Erez Lieberman Aiden, Jean-Baptiste is a Founding Director of Harvard's Cultural Observatory, where their research team pioneers the use of quantitative methods for the study of human culture, language and history. His research was featured on the covers of Science and Nature, on the front pages of the New York Times and the Boston Globe, in The Economist, Wired and many other venues. The online tool he helped create -- ngrams.googlelabs.com -- was used millions of times to browse cultural trends. Jean-Baptiste is an Engineer from Ecole Polytechnique (Paris), and holds an MS in Applied Mathematics and a PhD in Systems Biology from Harvard.
Jean-Baptiste Michel | Speaker | TED.com