TED2012
Jean-Baptiste Michel: The mathematics of history
Jean-Baptiste Michel: Matematika e historise
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,279,350 views
Cfare mund te tregoje matematika per historine? Sipas Jean-Baptiste Michel, shume. Nga ndryshimet e gjuhes deri tek numri i vdekjeve ne nje lufte, ai tregon si historia dixhitale po fillon te zbuloje trendet qe fshihen thelle mbas ketyre ngjarjeve.
Jean-Baptiste Michel - Data researcher
Jean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world. Full bio
Jean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
So it turns out that mathematics is a very powerful language.
0
0
3671
Pra del se matematika eshte nje gjuhe shume e fuqishme.
00:19
It has generated considerable insight in physics,
1
3671
2312
Ajo ka gjeneruar njohuri te konsiderueshme ne fizike,
00:21
in biology and economics,
2
5983
2100
ne biologji dhe ekonomi,
00:23
but not that much in the humanities and in history.
3
8083
2817
por jo edhe aq shume ne shkencat humane dhe ne histori.
00:26
I think there's a belief that it's just impossible,
4
10900
2283
Une mendoj qe njerezit besojne qe eshte e pamundur,
00:29
that you cannot quantify the doings of mankind,
5
13183
2646
qe nuk mund te masesh veprat e njerezimit,
00:31
that you cannot measure history.
6
15829
2519
qe nuk mundemi te matim historine.
00:34
But I don't think that's right.
7
18348
1527
Por une nuk mendoj qe kjo eshte e drejte.
00:35
I want to show you a couple of examples why.
8
19875
2042
Dua t`ju paraqes ca shembuj pse.
00:37
So my collaborator Erez and I were considering the following fact:
9
21917
2958
Bashkepuntori im Erez dhe une ishim duke e konsideruar faktin:
00:40
that two kings separated by centuries
10
24875
2729
qe 2 mbreter te ndare ne shekuj
00:43
will speak a very different language.
11
27604
1767
do te flasin nje gjuhe shume te ndryshme.
00:45
That's a powerful historical force.
12
29371
2304
Kjo eshte forca e fuqishme historike.
00:47
So the king of England, Alfred the Great,
13
31675
1773
Pra mbreti i Anglise,Alfredi i madh
00:49
will use a vocabulary and grammar
14
33448
1640
do te perdore nje gramatike dhe fjalor
00:50
that is quite different from the king of hip hop, Jay-Z.
15
35088
3700
qe eshte shume ndryshe nga ai i mbretit te hip hopit Jay-Z.
00:54
(Laughter)
16
38788
1666
Qeshje
00:56
Now it's just the way it is.
17
40454
2171
Tash eshte kjo menyre qe eshte.
00:58
Language changes over time, and it's a powerful force.
18
42625
2292
Gjuha ndryshon me kohen, dhe eshte force e fuqishme.
01:00
So Erez and I wanted to know more about that.
19
44917
2287
Pra Erez dhe un donim te dinim me shume per kete.
01:03
So we paid attention to a particular grammatical rule, past-tense conjugation.
20
47204
3657
Keshtu ne kushtuam vemendje te vecante rregullave te gramatikes, zgjedhimit te foljeve ne te shkuaren.
01:06
So you just add "ed" to a verb at the end to signify the past.
21
50861
3264
Pra vetem i shton nje mbarese foljes per te krijuar kohen e shkuar.
01:10
"Today I walk. Yesterday I walked."
22
54125
1927
"Sot une eci. Dje une eca."
01:11
But some verbs are irregular.
23
56052
1344
Por disa folje jane te parregullta.
01:13
"Yesterday I thought."
24
57396
1396
"Dje une i 'dhashe' mendjes para mbrapa."
01:14
Now what's interesting about that
25
58792
1666
Tash ajo qe eshte interesante ketu
01:16
is irregular verbs between Alfred and Jay-Z have become more regular.
26
60458
3830
eshte qe foljet e parregullta qe ndermjet Alfredit dhe Jay-Z jane bere te rregullta.
01:20
Like the verb "to wed" that you see here has become regular.
27
64288
2735
Sikur folja "te martohet" qe e shifni eshte bere e rregullt.
01:22
So Erez and I followed the fate of over 100 irregular verbs
28
67023
4022
Pra une dhe Erez ndoqem rrugen e me shume 100 foljeve te parregullta
01:26
through 12 centuries of English language,
29
71045
1919
gjate 12 shekujve te gjuhes angleze,
01:28
and we saw that there's actually a very simple mathematical pattern
30
72964
2911
dhe e kemi pare qe faktikisht eshte nje model shume i thjeshte matematikor
01:31
that captures this complex historical change,
31
75875
2542
qe shpjegon kete kompleks te ndryshimeve historike,
01:34
namely, if a verb is 100 times more frequent than another,
32
78417
3660
domethene, nese nje folje eshte 100 here me e shpeshte se tjetra,
01:37
it regularizes 10 times slower.
33
82077
2665
ajo behet e rregullt 10 here me ngadale.
01:40
That's a piece of history, but it comes in a mathematical wrapping.
34
84742
3935
Kjo eshte nje pjese e historise, por ajo vjen nen nje mbulese matematikore.
01:44
Now in some cases math can even help explain,
35
88677
3654
Tash ne disa raste matematika mund te ndihmoje edhe te shpjegoje,
01:48
or propose explanations for, historical forces.
36
92331
2879
ose te propozoje shpjegime per forcat historike.
01:51
So here Steve Pinker and I
37
95210
1832
Pra ketu Steve Pinker dhe une
01:52
were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries.
38
97042
3852
i dhame rendesi madhesise se lufterave gjate 2 shekujve te fundit.
01:56
There's actually a well-known regularity to them
39
100894
2495
Faktikisht eshte nje rregull i mirenjohur
01:59
where the number of wars that are 100 times deadlier
40
103389
3422
qe numri i lufterave qe jane 100 here me vdekjeprurese
02:02
is 10 times smaller.
41
106811
1952
eshte 10 here me i vogel.
02:04
So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War,
42
108763
3344
Pra jane 30 luftera qe jane po aq vdekjeprurese si Lufta e 6 diteve
02:08
but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier --
43
112107
2820
por jane vetem 4 luftera qe jane 100 here me vdekjeprurese
02:10
like World War I.
44
114927
1977
se Lufta e Pare Boterore.
02:12
So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that?
45
116904
2923
Pra cfare mekanizmi i historise mund te prodhoje ate?
02:15
What's the origin of this?
46
119827
2000
Cila eshte origjina e saj?
02:17
So Steve and I, through mathematical analysis,
47
121827
2265
Pra Steve dhe une, permes analizave matematikore,
02:19
propose that there's actually a very simple phenomenon at the root of this,
48
124092
4241
propozuam qe rrenjet e kesaj jane ne nje fenomen te thjeshte,
02:24
which lies in our brains.
49
128333
1690
qe gjendet ne trute tona.
02:25
This is a very well-known feature
50
130023
2019
Eshte nje tipar i mirenjohur
02:27
in which we perceive quantities in relative ways --
51
132042
2975
ne te cilin ne perceptojme sasite ne menyra relative
02:30
quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound.
52
135017
3716
sasite si intensiteti i drites ose lartesia e tingullit.
02:34
For instance, committing 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot.
53
138733
5309
Per shembull te vendosesh 10.000 ushtare per betejen e ardhshme, tingellon si shume.
02:39
It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously.
54
144042
3444
Eshte relativisht numer i madh nese ju keni vendosur 1000 ushtare ne betejat e shkuara
02:43
But it doesn't sound so much,
55
147486
1827
Por nuk tingellon shume,
02:45
it's not relatively enough, it won't make a difference
56
149313
3020
nuk eshte relativisht mjaftueshem, nuk do te beje ndryshim
02:48
if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously.
57
152333
2952
nqs me perpara ke vendosur 100,000.
02:51
So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities,
58
155285
3613
Pra e shikoni se per shkak te menyres si perceptojme sasite,
02:54
as the war drags on,
59
158898
1767
si lufterat vazhdojne,
02:56
the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties
60
160665
3085
numri i ushtareve te angazhuar ne te dhe viktimat
02:59
will increase not linearly --
61
163750
1683
nuk rriten ne menyre lineare --
03:01
like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 --
62
165433
1888
si 10,000 , 11,000 , 12,000
03:03
but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000.
63
167321
4275
por ne fuqi - 10,000 me vone 20,000 me vone 40,000 .
03:07
And so that explains this pattern that we've seen before.
64
171596
3085
Dhe kjo e shpjegon kete model qe ne e kemi pare me pare.
03:10
So here mathematics is able to link a well-known feature of the individual mind
65
174681
5498
Pra matematika eshte ne gjendje te lidhje nje funksion me mendjen e individit
03:16
with a long-term historical pattern
66
180179
2989
me terme te gjata historike
03:19
that unfolds over centuries and across continents.
67
183168
2857
qe shpalos shekujt dhe kontinentet.
03:21
So these types of examples, today there are just a few of them,
68
186025
4017
Pra keto tipe te shembujve, sot jane vetem disa prej tyre,
03:25
but I think in the next decade they will become commonplace.
69
190042
2689
por une mendoj se ne dekaden e ardhshme do te behen me te zakonshme.
03:28
The reason for that is that the historical record
70
192731
2392
Arsyeja e kesaj eshte nje incizim historik
03:31
is becoming digitized at a very fast pace.
71
195123
2460
eshte duke u bere i digjitalizuar ne ritem shume te shpejte.
03:33
So there's about 130 million books
72
197583
2610
Pra rreth 130 milione libra
03:36
that have been written since the dawn of time.
73
200193
2311
jane shkruar qe nga agimi i kohes.
03:38
Companies like Google have digitized many of them --
74
202504
2454
Kompanite si Google kane digjitalizuar shume prej tyre
03:40
above 20 million actually.
75
204958
1584
me shume se 20 milione.
03:42
And when the stuff of history is available in digital form,
76
206542
3578
Dhe kur gjerat e historise behen te dixhitalizuara,
03:46
it makes it possible for a mathematical analysis
77
210120
2380
eshte e mundur qe analizat e matematikes
03:48
to very quickly and very conveniently
78
212500
2375
te jene shume te shpejta dhe bindese
03:50
review trends in our history and our culture.
79
214875
2725
te analizojne trendet ne historine dhe kulturen tone.
03:53
So I think in the next decade,
80
217600
2721
Pra une mendoj ne dekaden e ardhshme,
03:56
the sciences and the humanities will come closer together
81
220321
2750
shkencat dhe humaniteti do te jene me te bashkuara
03:58
to be able to answer deep questions about mankind.
82
223071
3329
te jene ne gjendje t`ju pergjigjen pyetjeve rreth njerzimit.
04:02
And I think that mathematics will be a very powerful language to do that.
83
226400
4121
Dhe mendoj qe matematika do te jete nje gjuhe e fuqishme per te bere kete.
04:06
It will be able to reveal new trends in our history,
84
230521
3146
Do te jete ne gjendje te zbuloje trende te reje ne historine tone,
04:09
sometimes to explain them,
85
233667
1750
nganjehere ti shpjegoje ato,
04:11
and maybe even in the future to predict what's going to happen.
86
235417
3306
dhe ndoshta ne te ardhmen te parashikoje se cfare do te ndodhe.
04:14
Thank you very much.
87
238723
1491
Faleminderit shume.
04:16
(Applause)
88
240214
3678
(Duartrokitje)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jean-Baptiste Michel - Data researcherJean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world.
Why you should listen
Jean-Baptiste Michel holds joint academic appointments at Harvard (FQEB Fellow) and Google (Visiting Faculty). His research focusses on using large volumes of data as tools that help better understand the world around us -- from the way diseases progress in patients over years, to the way cultures change in human societies over centuries. With his colleague Erez Lieberman Aiden, Jean-Baptiste is a Founding Director of Harvard's Cultural Observatory, where their research team pioneers the use of quantitative methods for the study of human culture, language and history. His research was featured on the covers of Science and Nature, on the front pages of the New York Times and the Boston Globe, in The Economist, Wired and many other venues. The online tool he helped create -- ngrams.googlelabs.com -- was used millions of times to browse cultural trends. Jean-Baptiste is an Engineer from Ecole Polytechnique (Paris), and holds an MS in Applied Mathematics and a PhD in Systems Biology from Harvard.
Jean-Baptiste Michel | Speaker | TED.com