TED2012
Jean-Baptiste Michel: The mathematics of history
Žan-Batist Mišel (Jean-Baptiste Michel): Matematika istorije
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Šta matematika može da kaže o istoriji? Po rečima TEDFellow Žana-Batiste Mišela, prilično mnogo. Od promena, preko jezika do smrtonosnih ratova, on pokazuje kako digitalizovana istorija tek počinje da otkriva duboke obrasce u svojoj osnovi.
Jean-Baptiste Michel - Data researcher
Jean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world. Full bio
Jean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
So it turns out that mathematics is a very powerful language.
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Ispada da je matematika veoma moćan jezik.
00:19
It has generated considerable insight in physics,
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Ona ima značajno uporište u fizici,
00:21
in biology and economics,
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biologiji i ekonomiji,
00:23
but not that much in the humanities and in history.
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ali ne tako veliko u društvenim naukama i istoriji.
00:26
I think there's a belief that it's just impossible,
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Mislim da postoji verovanje da je upravo nemoguće,
00:29
that you cannot quantify the doings of mankind,
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da se ne može izmeriti količina ljudskih dela,
00:31
that you cannot measure history.
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niti izmeriti istorija.
00:34
But I don't think that's right.
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Ali ne mislim da je to tačno.
00:35
I want to show you a couple of examples why.
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Hoću da vam pokažem par primera zašto.
00:37
So my collaborator Erez and I were considering the following fact:
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Moj saradnik Erez i ja smo razmatrali sledeću činjenicu:
00:40
that two kings separated by centuries
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dva kralja razdvojena vekovima
00:43
will speak a very different language.
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će govoriti veoma različitim jezikom.
00:45
That's a powerful historical force.
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To je veoma snažna istorijska sila.
00:47
So the king of England, Alfred the Great,
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Tako će kralj Engleske, Alfred Veliki,
00:49
will use a vocabulary and grammar
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korisititi rečnik i gramatiku
00:50
that is quite different from the king of hip hop, Jay-Z.
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koji su vrlo različiti od kralja hip hopa, Džej Zija.
00:54
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:56
Now it's just the way it is.
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To je tako.
00:58
Language changes over time, and it's a powerful force.
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Jezik se menja u vremenu i to je snažna sila.
01:00
So Erez and I wanted to know more about that.
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Tako da smo Erez i ja hteli da saznamo više o tome.
01:03
So we paid attention to a particular grammatical rule, past-tense conjugation.
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Tako da smo obratili pažnju na posebno gramatičko pravilo, promenu glagola u prošlom vremenu (engleski jezik).
01:06
So you just add "ed" to a verb at the end to signify the past.
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Tako dodajemo "ed" glagolu da označimo prošlost.
01:10
"Today I walk. Yesterday I walked."
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"Danas hodam (walk). Juče sam hodao (walked)."
01:11
But some verbs are irregular.
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Ali neki glagoli su nepravilni.
01:13
"Yesterday I thought."
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"Juče sam mislio. (thought)"
01:14
Now what's interesting about that
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Sad, ono što je interesantno povodom toga
01:16
is irregular verbs between Alfred and Jay-Z have become more regular.
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je da su nepravilni glagoli između Alfreda i Džej Zija postali pravilniji.
01:20
Like the verb "to wed" that you see here has become regular.
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Kao glagol "venčati se" ("to wed") koji vidite ovde je postao pravilan.
01:22
So Erez and I followed the fate of over 100 irregular verbs
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Tako da smo Erez i ja posmatrali sudbinu preko 100 nepravilnih glagola
01:26
through 12 centuries of English language,
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kroz 12 vekova engleskog jezika,
01:28
and we saw that there's actually a very simple mathematical pattern
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i uočili smo da ustvari postoji veoma jednostavno matematičko pravilo
01:31
that captures this complex historical change,
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koje obuhvata ovu složenu istorijsku promenu,
01:34
namely, if a verb is 100 times more frequent than another,
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naime, ako je glagol 100 puta češći nego drugi,
01:37
it regularizes 10 times slower.
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on postaje pravilan 10 puta sporije.
01:40
That's a piece of history, but it comes in a mathematical wrapping.
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To je deo istorije, ali ima matematički opis.
01:44
Now in some cases math can even help explain,
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Sada, u nekim slučajevima matematika čak može pomoći da se opiše
01:48
or propose explanations for, historical forces.
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ili predloži objašnjenje za istorijske sile.
01:51
So here Steve Pinker and I
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Ovde smo Stiv Pinker i ja
01:52
were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries.
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razmatrali veličine ratova za vreme dva poslednja veka.
01:56
There's actually a well-known regularity to them
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Tu postoji u stvari dobro poznato pravilo
01:59
where the number of wars that are 100 times deadlier
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gde je broj ratova koji su 100 puta smrtonosniji
02:02
is 10 times smaller.
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10 puta manji.
02:04
So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War,
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Tako da ima 30 ratova koji su u stvari smrtonosni kao šestodnevni rat (rat Arapi-Izrael 1967),
02:08
but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier --
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ali ima samo četiri rata koji su 100 puta smrtonosniji --
02:10
like World War I.
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kao Prvi svetski rat.
02:12
So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that?
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Pa kakav istorijski mehanizam to može prouzrokovati?
02:15
What's the origin of this?
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Šta je poreklo ovoga?
02:17
So Steve and I, through mathematical analysis,
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Tako Stiv i ja, kroz matematičku analizu
02:19
propose that there's actually a very simple phenomenon at the root of this,
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predlažemo da postoji veoma jednostavan fenomen u korenu ovoga,
02:24
which lies in our brains.
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koji leži u našem umu.
02:25
This is a very well-known feature
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To je veoma dobro poznata osobina
02:27
in which we perceive quantities in relative ways --
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gde mi doživljavamo količine na relativan način --
02:30
quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound.
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količine kao intenzitet svetla ili jačinu zvuka.
02:34
For instance, committing 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot.
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Npr, angažovanje 10 000 vojnika u sledećoj bici, zvuči kao mnogo.
02:39
It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously.
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To je relativno veliki broj, ako ste već angažovali 1 000.
02:43
But it doesn't sound so much,
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Ali to ne izgleda tako mnogo,
02:45
it's not relatively enough, it won't make a difference
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nije relativno dovoljno, neće praviti razliku
02:48
if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously.
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ako ste ranije već angažovali 100 000 vojnika.
02:51
So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities,
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Tako da vidite zbog načina na koji mi doživljavamo količine,
02:54
as the war drags on,
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kako se ratovi nastavljaju,
02:56
the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties
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broj vojnika koji su uključeni u njih i žrtve
02:59
will increase not linearly --
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se neće povećavati linearno --
03:01
like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 --
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kao 10 000, 11 000, 12 000 --
03:03
but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000.
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već eksponencionalno -- 10 000, pa 20 000, pa 40 000.
03:07
And so that explains this pattern that we've seen before.
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I to objašnjava pravilo koje smo videli ranije.
03:10
So here mathematics is able to link a well-known feature of the individual mind
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Tako da ovde matematika može da poveže dobro poznatu osobinu pojedinačnog mišljenja
03:16
with a long-term historical pattern
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sa dugotrajnim istorijskim uzorkom
03:19
that unfolds over centuries and across continents.
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koji se otrkiva kroz vekove i kontinente.
03:21
So these types of examples, today there are just a few of them,
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Mislim da će ovakve vrste primera, kojih danas ima samo nekolicina,
03:25
but I think in the next decade they will become commonplace.
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u sledećoj deceniji postati uobičajene.
03:28
The reason for that is that the historical record
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Razlog za ovo je to što se istorjski zapisi
03:31
is becoming digitized at a very fast pace.
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veoma brzim tempom digitalizuju.
03:33
So there's about 130 million books
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Ima oko 130 miliona knjiga
03:36
that have been written since the dawn of time.
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koje su napisane od rađanja vremena.
03:38
Companies like Google have digitized many of them --
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Kompanije kao Google su digitalizovale mnoge od njih
03:40
above 20 million actually.
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ustvari preko 20 miliona.
03:42
And when the stuff of history is available in digital form,
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I kad su istorijske stvari dostupne u digitalnoj formi,
03:46
it makes it possible for a mathematical analysis
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to omogućava da se matematičkom analizom,
03:48
to very quickly and very conveniently
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veoma brzo i vrlo povoljno
03:50
review trends in our history and our culture.
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pregledaju trendovi u našoj istoriji i kulturi.
03:53
So I think in the next decade,
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Tako da mislim da će u sledećoj deceniji,
03:56
the sciences and the humanities will come closer together
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prirodne i društvene nauke postati bliskije
03:58
to be able to answer deep questions about mankind.
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i da će moći da odgovore na suštinska pitanja o ljudskoj vrsti.
04:02
And I think that mathematics will be a very powerful language to do that.
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I mislim da će jezik matematike biti veoma snažan jezik da to uradi.
04:06
It will be able to reveal new trends in our history,
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Moći će da otkrije nove trendove u našoj istoriji,
04:09
sometimes to explain them,
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ponekad da ih objasni
04:11
and maybe even in the future to predict what's going to happen.
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i možda čak da predvidi šta će se dogoditi.
04:14
Thank you very much.
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Hvala mnogo.
04:16
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jean-Baptiste Michel - Data researcherJean-Baptiste Michel looks at how we can use large volumes of data to better understand our world.
Why you should listen
Jean-Baptiste Michel holds joint academic appointments at Harvard (FQEB Fellow) and Google (Visiting Faculty). His research focusses on using large volumes of data as tools that help better understand the world around us -- from the way diseases progress in patients over years, to the way cultures change in human societies over centuries. With his colleague Erez Lieberman Aiden, Jean-Baptiste is a Founding Director of Harvard's Cultural Observatory, where their research team pioneers the use of quantitative methods for the study of human culture, language and history. His research was featured on the covers of Science and Nature, on the front pages of the New York Times and the Boston Globe, in The Economist, Wired and many other venues. The online tool he helped create -- ngrams.googlelabs.com -- was used millions of times to browse cultural trends. Jean-Baptiste is an Engineer from Ecole Polytechnique (Paris), and holds an MS in Applied Mathematics and a PhD in Systems Biology from Harvard.
Jean-Baptiste Michel | Speaker | TED.com