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Hannah Fry: The mathematics of love
Hannah Fry: Matematika ljubezni
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Iskanje pravega partnerja ni mačji kašelj - ampak a je sploh matematično verjetno? V očarljivem govoru matematičarka Hannah Fry pokaže vzorce, kako iščemo ljubezen, in poda tri najboljše nasvete (matematično preverjene!) za najdbo boljše polovice.
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today I want to talk to you
about the mathematics of love.
about the mathematics of love.
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Danes bi vam rada govorila
o matematiki ljubezni.
o matematiki ljubezni.
00:16
Now, I think that we can all agree
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Mislim, da se lahko vsi strinjamo,
00:18
that mathematicians
are famously excellent at finding love.
are famously excellent at finding love.
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da matematiki slovijo po tem,
da so odlični v iskanju ljubezni.
da so odlični v iskanju ljubezni.
00:23
But it's not just
because of our dashing personalities,
because of our dashing personalities,
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A ne le zaradi naših sijajnih osebnosti,
00:27
superior conversational skills
and excellent pencil cases.
and excellent pencil cases.
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superiornih pogovornih spretnosti
in odličnih peresnic za svinčnike.
in odličnih peresnic za svinčnike.
00:31
It's also because we've actually done
an awful lot of work into the maths
an awful lot of work into the maths
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Ampak tudi zato, ker smo dejansko
naredili ogromno dela glede matematike,
naredili ogromno dela glede matematike,
00:36
of how to find the perfect partner.
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kako najti popolnega partnerja.
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper
on the subject, which is entitled,
on the subject, which is entitled,
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V mojem najljubšem članku o tej temi,
ki nosi naslov:
ki nosi naslov:
00:41
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
(Laughter) --
(Laughter) --
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"Zakaj nimam punce" -
(smeh) -
(smeh) -
00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate
his chances of finding love.
his chances of finding love.
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Peter Backus poskuša oceniti
svoje možnosti, da najde ljubezen.
svoje možnosti, da najde ljubezen.
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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A Peter ni zelo pohlepen.
00:51
Of all of the available women in the U.K.,
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Med vsemi možnimi ženskami
v Združenem kraljestvu
v Združenem kraljestvu
00:53
all Peter's looking for
is somebody who lives near him,
is somebody who lives near him,
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Peter išče le takšno, ki živi blizu njega,
00:56
somebody in the right age range,
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ki je v pravem starostnem razponu,
00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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ki ima univerzitetno diplomo,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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s katero se bo verjetno lepo ujel,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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ki je verjetno privlačna,
01:05
somebody who's likely
to find him attractive.
to find him attractive.
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ki se ji bo on verjetno zdel privlačen.
01:08
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
01:11
And comes up with an estimate
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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Oceni, da je v celotnem
Združenem kraljestvu 26 takšnih žensk.
Združenem kraljestvu 26 takšnih žensk.
01:17
It's not looking very good,
is it Peter?
is it Peter?
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To pa ni preveč obetavno, kaj Peter?
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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Če to postavimo v perspektivo,
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer
than the best estimates
than the best estimates
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je to približno 400-krat manj,
kot so najboljše ocene,
kot so najboljše ocene,
01:24
of how many intelligent
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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koliko inteligentnih
izvenzemeljskih oblik življenja obstaja.
izvenzemeljskih oblik življenja obstaja.
01:28
And it also gives Peter
a 1 in 285,000 chance
a 1 in 285,000 chance
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Petru pa da tudi možnost 1 proti 285.000,
01:33
of bumping into any one
of these special ladies
of these special ladies
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da se bo zaletel v eno od teh posebnih dam
01:35
on a given night out.
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v določeni noči, ko gre ven.
01:37
I'd like to think
that's why mathematicians
that's why mathematicians
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Mislim, da je to razlog,
zakaj se matematiki
zakaj se matematiki
01:39
don't really bother
going on nights out anymore.
going on nights out anymore.
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v resnici več ne trudijo,
da bi hodili ven.
da bi hodili ven.
01:42
The thing is that I personally
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A v bistvu se jaz osebno
01:44
don't subscribe
to such a pessimistic view.
to such a pessimistic view.
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ne strinjam s tako pesimističnim pogledom.
01:47
Because I know,
just as well as all of you do,
just as well as all of you do,
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Ker vem, tako dobro, kot vsi vi,
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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da ljubezen v resnici ne deluje tako.
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered
and rational and easily predictable.
and rational and easily predictable.
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Človeško čustvo ni lepo urejeno
in razumsko in enostavno predvidljivo.
in razumsko in enostavno predvidljivo.
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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Hkrati pa vem, da to ne pomeni,
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something
that it can offer us
that it can offer us
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da matematika nima ničesar,
kar bi nam lahko ponudila,
kar bi nam lahko ponudila,
02:03
because, love, as with most of life,
is full of patterns
is full of patterns
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ker je ljubezen, kot večina življenja,
polna vzorcev
polna vzorcev
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately,
all about the study of patterns.
all about the study of patterns.
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in matematika je konec koncev
proučevanje vzorcev.
proučevanje vzorcev.
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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Od vzorcev napovedovanja vremena
do nihanj na trgu vrednostnih papirjev,
do nihanj na trgu vrednostnih papirjev,
02:15
to the movement of the planets
or the growth of cities.
or the growth of cities.
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gibanja planetov ali rasti mest.
02:18
And if we're being honest,
none of those things
none of those things
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In če smo pošteni, nič od tega
02:21
are exactly neatly ordered
and easily predictable, either.
and easily predictable, either.
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prav tako ni ravno lepo urejeno
in enostavno predvidljivo.
in enostavno predvidljivo.
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics
is so powerful that it has the potential
is so powerful that it has the potential
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Ker verjamem, da je matematika tako močna,
da ima potencial,
da ima potencial,
02:29
to offer us a new way of looking
at almost anything.
at almost anything.
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da nam ponudi nov pogled na skoraj vse.
02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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Tudi na nekaj tako skrivnostnega
kot je ljubezen.
kot je ljubezen.
02:37
And so, to try to persuade you
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Da bi vas torej prepričala,
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent
and relevant mathematics is,
and relevant mathematics is,
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kako popolnoma osupljiva, odlična
in pomembna je matematika,
in pomembna je matematika,
02:43
I want to give you my top three
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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vam želim dati tri najboljše matematično
preverljive nasvete za ljubezen.
preverljive nasvete za ljubezen.
02:51
Okay, so Top Tip #1:
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Prav, torej najboljši nasvet št. 1:
02:53
How to win at online dating.
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Kako zmagati v spletnih zmenkarijah.
02:58
So my favorite online dating
website is OkCupid,
website is OkCupid,
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Moja najljubša spletna stran za zmenkarije
je OkCupid,
je OkCupid,
03:02
not least because it was started
by a group of mathematicians.
by a group of mathematicians.
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med drugim zato,
ker jo je ustvarila skupina matematikov.
ker jo je ustvarila skupina matematikov.
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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Ker so matematiki,
03:07
they have been collecting data
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so zbirali podatke
03:09
on everybody who uses their site
for almost a decade.
for almost a decade.
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o vseh, ki uporabljajo njihovo stran,
skoraj desetletje.
skoraj desetletje.
03:11
And they've been trying
to search for patterns
to search for patterns
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Poskušali so iskati vzorce
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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v tem, kako govorimo o sebi
03:16
and the way that we
interact with each other
interact with each other
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in v tem, kako medsebojno komuniciramo
03:18
on an online dating website.
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na spletni strani za zmenkarije.
03:19
And they've come up with some
seriously interesting findings.
seriously interesting findings.
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Tako so prišli do nekaterih
resnično zanimivih odkritij.
resnično zanimivih odkritij.
03:22
But my particular favorite
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A moje najljubše je to,
03:24
is that it turns out
that on an online dating website,
that on an online dating website,
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da se izkaže,
da na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
da na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
03:27
how attractive you are
does not dictate how popular you are,
does not dictate how popular you are,
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to, kako privlačen si,
ne odloča o tvoji priljubljenosti,
ne odloča o tvoji priljubljenosti,
03:33
and actually, having people
think that you're ugly
think that you're ugly
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in pravzaprav vam mišljenje ljudi,
da ste grdi,
da ste grdi,
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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lahko celo pomaga.
03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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Naj vam pokažem, kako to deluje.
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary
section of OkCupid,
section of OkCupid,
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V k sreči prostovoljnem delu
strani OkCupid
strani OkCupid
03:46
you are allowed to rate
how attractive you think people are
how attractive you think people are
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lahko ocenjujete,
kako privlačni se vam zdijo ljudje,
kako privlačni se vam zdijo ljudje,
03:49
on a scale between 1 and 5.
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na lestvici od 1 do 5.
03:52
Now, if we compare this score,
the average score,
the average score,
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Če primerjate to oceno, povprečno oceno,
03:55
to how many messages a
selection of people receive,
selection of people receive,
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s številom sporočil,
ki jih izbrani ljudje dobijo,
ki jih izbrani ljudje dobijo,
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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lahko pričnete dobivati občutek,
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity
on an online dating website.
on an online dating website.
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kako je privlačnost povezana s
priljubljenostjo na strani za zmenkarije.
priljubljenostjo na strani za zmenkarije.
04:03
This is the graph that the OkCupid guys
have come up with.
have come up with.
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To je grafikon,
ki so ga dobili fantje z OkCupida.
ki so ga dobili fantje z OkCupida.
04:07
And the important thing to notice
is that it's not totally true
is that it's not totally true
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Pomembno je, da opazimo,
da ne drži popolnoma,
da ne drži popolnoma,
04:10
that the more attractive you are,
the more messages you get.
the more messages you get.
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da bolj kot ste privlačni,
več sporočil dobite.
več sporočil dobite.
04:13
But the question arises then
of what is it about people up here
of what is it about people up here
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Vendar se potem postavi vprašanje,
kaj je takšnega na ljudeh tu zgoraj,
kaj je takšnega na ljudeh tu zgoraj,
04:16
who are so much more popular
than people down here,
than people down here,
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ki so toliko bolj priljubljeni
od ljudi tu spodaj,
od ljudi tu spodaj,
04:21
even though they have the
same score of attractiveness?
same score of attractiveness?
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čeprav imajo enako oceno privlačnosti?
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just
straightforward looks that are important.
straightforward looks that are important.
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Razlog je v tem, da ni pomemben
samo videz sam po sebi.
samo videz sam po sebi.
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their
findings with an example.
findings with an example.
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Naj vam njihova odkritja
prikažem skozi primer.
prikažem skozi primer.
04:31
So if you take someone like
Portia de Rossi, for example,
Portia de Rossi, for example,
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Če na primer vzamete nekoga,
kot je Portia de Rossi,
kot je Portia de Rossi,
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi
is a very beautiful woman.
is a very beautiful woman.
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se vsi strinjajo, da je Portia de Rossi
zelo lepa ženska.
zelo lepa ženska.
04:40
Nobody thinks that she's ugly,
but she's not a supermodel, either.
but she's not a supermodel, either.
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Nikomur se ne zdi grda,
a tudi supermodel ni.
a tudi supermodel ni.
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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Če primerjate Portio de Rossi
z nekom, kot je Sarah Jessica Parker,
z nekom, kot je Sarah Jessica Parker,
04:48
now, a lot of people,
myself included, I should say,
myself included, I should say,
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mnogi, tudi jaz, moram reči,
04:51
think that Sarah Jessica Parker
is seriously fabulous
is seriously fabulous
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menijo, da je Sarah Jessica Parker
resnično čudovita
resnično čudovita
04:56
and possibly one of the
most beautiful creatures
most beautiful creatures
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in verjetno ena od najlepših bitij,
04:58
to have ever have walked
on the face of the Earth.
on the face of the Earth.
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ki so kadarkoli hodile po Zemlji.
05:01
But some other people,
i.e., most of the Internet,
i.e., most of the Internet,
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Nekateri drugi,
na primer večina interneta,
na primer večina interneta,
05:07
seem to think that she looks
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
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pa so zgleda mnenja,
da izgleda kot konj. (smeh)
da izgleda kot konj. (smeh)
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people
how attractive they thought
how attractive they thought
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Mislim, da če bi vprašali ljudi,
kako privlačni se jim zdita
kako privlačni se jim zdita
05:17
Sarah Jessica Parker
or Portia de Rossi were,
or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sarah Jessica Parker ali Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give
them a score between 1 and 5,
them a score between 1 and 5,
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in naj ju ocenijo od 1 do 5,
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out
to have roughly the same score.
to have roughly the same score.
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domnevam, da bi v povprečju imeli
približno enako oceno.
približno enako oceno.
05:25
But the way that people would vote
would be very different.
would be very different.
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Vendar bi bil način,
na katerega bi glasovali, zelo različen.
na katerega bi glasovali, zelo različen.
05:27
So Portia's scores would
all be clustered around the 4
all be clustered around the 4
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Ocene za Portio bi bile zgoščene okoli 4,
05:30
because everybody agrees
that she's very beautiful,
that she's very beautiful,
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ker se vsi strinjajo, da je zelo lepa,
05:32
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker
completely divides opinion.
completely divides opinion.
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medtem ko so za Sarah Jessico Parker
mnenja zelo deljena.
mnenja zelo deljena.
05:35
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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Njene ocene bi bile zelo razpršene.
05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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A pravzaprav ravno ta razpršenost šteje.
05:40
It's this spread
that makes you more popular
that makes you more popular
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Ta razpršenost te naredi
bolj priljubljenega
bolj priljubljenega
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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na spletni strani za zmenkarije.
05:45
So what that means then
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To torej pomeni,
05:46
is that if some people
think that you're attractive,
think that you're attractive,
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da če nekateri ljudje menijo,
da ste privlačni,
da ste privlačni,
05:48
you're actually better off
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je za vas bolje,
05:50
having some other people
think that you're a massive minger.
think that you're a massive minger.
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če nekateri drugi menijo,
da ste grdi kot smrt.
da ste grdi kot smrt.
05:55
That's much better
than everybody just thinking
than everybody just thinking
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To je veliko bolje, kot da vsi mislijo,
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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da ste luštna punca iz soseske.
05:59
Now, I think this begins
makes a bit more sense
makes a bit more sense
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Mislim, da to dobi več smisla,
06:02
when you think in terms of the people
who are sending these messages.
who are sending these messages.
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ko razmišljate kot ljudje,
ki pošiljajo ta sporočila.
ki pošiljajo ta sporočila.
06:05
So let's say that you think
somebody's attractive,
somebody's attractive,
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Recimo, da se vam nekdo zdi privlačen,
06:07
but you suspect that other people
won't necessarily be that interested.
won't necessarily be that interested.
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vendar sumite, da drugi
ne bodo nujno tako zainteresirani.
ne bodo nujno tako zainteresirani.
06:11
That means there's
less competition for you
less competition for you
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To pomeni, da imate manj konkurence
06:14
and it's an extra incentive
for you to get in touch.
for you to get in touch.
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in to je dodatna vzpodbuda,
da vzpostavite stik.
da vzpostavite stik.
06:16
Whereas compare that
to if you think somebody is attractive
to if you think somebody is attractive
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Primerjajte to s tem,
da se vam nekdo zdi privlačen,
da se vam nekdo zdi privlačen,
06:19
but you suspect that everybody
is going to think they're attractive.
is going to think they're attractive.
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vendar sumite,
da se bo vsem zdel privlačen.
da se bo vsem zdel privlačen.
06:23
Well, why would you bother
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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Če smo pošteni,
zakaj bi se trudili, da se ponižate?
zakaj bi se trudili, da se ponižate?
06:26
Here's where the really
interesting part comes.
interesting part comes.
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Tu pa pride resnično zanimiv del.
06:28
Because when people choose the pictures
that they use on an online dating website,
that they use on an online dating website,
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Ko ljudje izbirajo slike, ki jih uporabijo
na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
na spletni strani za zmenkarije,
06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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pogosto poskušajo zmanjšati stvari,
06:35
that they think some people
will find unattractive.
will find unattractive.
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za katere mislijo,
da bi se komu zdele neprivlačne.
da bi se komu zdele neprivlačne.
06:39
The classic example is people
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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Klasičen primer je, ko ljudje,
ki so morda nekoliko pretežki,
ki so morda nekoliko pretežki,
06:43
deliberately choosing
a very cropped photo,
a very cropped photo,
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namenoma izberejo zelo obrezano sliko,
06:46
or bald men, for example,
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ali pa plešasti moški, na primer,
06:48
deliberately choosing pictures
where they're wearing hats.
where they're wearing hats.
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namenoma izberejo slike,
na katerih nosijo klobuke.
na katerih nosijo klobuke.
06:51
But actually this is the opposite
of what you should do
of what you should do
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A v resnici je to nasprotno od tega,
kar bi morali početi,
kar bi morali početi,
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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če želite biti uspešni.
06:55
You should really, instead, play up to
whatever it is that makes you different,
whatever it is that makes you different,
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Namesto tega bi resnično morali poudariti,
karkoli je tisto, kar vas dela drugačnega,
karkoli je tisto, kar vas dela drugačnega,
07:00
even if you think that some people
will find it unattractive.
will find it unattractive.
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četudi se vam zdi,
da se boste nekaterim zdeli neprivlačni.
da se boste nekaterim zdeli neprivlačni.
07:04
Because the people who fancy you
are just going to fancy you anyway,
are just going to fancy you anyway,
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Ker ljudem, ki ste jim všeč,
boste vseeno všeč,
boste vseeno všeč,
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't,
well, they only play up to your advantage.
well, they only play up to your advantage.
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nepomembne zgube, ki jim niste všeč,
pa vam bodo samo koristile.
pa vam bodo samo koristile.
07:12
Okay, Top Tip #2:
How to pick the perfect partner.
How to pick the perfect partner.
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Prav, najboljši nasvet št. 2:
Kako izbrati popolnega partnerja.
Kako izbrati popolnega partnerja.
07:14
So let's imagine then
that you're a roaring success
that you're a roaring success
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Predstavljajmo si, da ste izjemno uspešni
07:17
on the dating scene.
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na sceni zmenkarij.
07:19
But the question arises
of how do you then convert that success
of how do you then convert that success
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A pojavi se vprašanje,
kako pretvoriti ta uspeh
kako pretvoriti ta uspeh
07:23
into longer-term happiness
and in particular,
and in particular,
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v dolgoročno srečo in še posebej,
07:27
how do you decide
when is the right time to settle down?
when is the right time to settle down?
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kako se odločiti,
kdaj je pravi čas za ustalitev.
kdaj je pravi čas za ustalitev.
07:31
Now generally,
it's not advisable to just cash in
it's not advisable to just cash in
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Na splošno ni priporočljivo,
da kar zagrabite
da kar zagrabite
07:34
and marry the first person
who comes along
who comes along
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in se poročite s prvo osebo, ki pride mimo
07:36
and shows you any interest at all.
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in pokaže nekaj zanimanja.
07:38
But, equally, you don't really
want to leave it too long
want to leave it too long
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A prav tako v resnici
ne želite čakati predolgo,
ne želite čakati predolgo,
07:41
if you want to maximize your
chance of long-term happiness.
chance of long-term happiness.
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če želite povečati svoje možnosti
za dolgoročno srečo.
za dolgoročno srečo.
07:44
As my favorite author,
Jane Austen, puts it,
Jane Austen, puts it,
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Kot pravi moja najljubša avtorica,
Jane Austen,
Jane Austen,
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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"Neporočena ženska pri sedemindvajsetih
07:50
can never hope to feel or
inspire affection again."
inspire affection again."
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ne more več upati, da bo še kdaj čutila
ali vzbudila naklonjenost."
ali vzbudila naklonjenost."
07:53
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
07:55
Thanks a lot, Jane.
What do you know about love?
What do you know about love?
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Res hvala, Jane.
Kaj pa ti veš o ljubezni?
Kaj pa ti veš o ljubezni?
07:59
So the question is then,
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Vprašanje je torej,
08:01
how do you know when
is the right time to settle down
is the right time to settle down
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kako veste,
kdaj je pravi čas, da se ustalite,
kdaj je pravi čas, da se ustalite,
08:03
given all the people
that you can date in your lifetime?
that you can date in your lifetime?
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če upoštevate vse, s katerimi
lahko v življenju greste ven?
lahko v življenju greste ven?
08:06
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit
of mathematics that we can use
of mathematics that we can use
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K sreči lahko uporabimo
precej slasten del matematike,
precej slasten del matematike,
08:10
to help us out here, called
optimal stopping theory.
optimal stopping theory.
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da nam pomaga in se imenuje
teorija optimalnega ustavljanja.
teorija optimalnega ustavljanja.
08:12
So let's imagine then,
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Predstavljajmo si,
08:14
that you start dating when you're 15
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da začnete hoditi na zmenke,
ko ste stari 15
ko ste stari 15
08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married
by the time that you're 35.
by the time that you're 35.
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in v idealnem primeru si želite
biti poročeni pri 35-ih.
biti poročeni pri 35-ih.
08:21
And there's a number of people
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Obstaja množica ljudi,
08:22
that you could potentially
date across your lifetime,
date across your lifetime,
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s katerimi bi v svojem življenju
lahko hodili
lahko hodili
08:25
and they'll be at varying
levels of goodness.
levels of goodness.
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in bi bili na različnih stopnjah dobrote.
08:27
Now the rules are that once
you cash in and get married,
you cash in and get married,
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Pravila so takšna,
da ko enkrat zagrabite in se poročite,
da ko enkrat zagrabite in se poročite,
08:30
you can't look ahead to see
what you could have had,
what you could have had,
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ne morete gledati naprej,
da bi videli, kar bi lahko imeli,
da bi videli, kar bi lahko imeli,
08:32
and equally, you can't go back
and change your mind.
and change your mind.
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in enako,
ne morete nazaj, da bi si premislili.
ne morete nazaj, da bi si premislili.
08:35
In my experience at least,
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Vsaj po mojih izkušnjah
08:37
I find that typically people don't
much like being recalled
much like being recalled
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sem ugotovila, da ljudje
običajno ne marajo, da jih poiščete
običajno ne marajo, da jih poiščete
08:39
years after being passed up
for somebody else, or that's just me.
for somebody else, or that's just me.
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leta po tem, ko ste namesto njih izbrali
nekoga drugega, ali pa sem to samo jaz.
nekoga drugega, ali pa sem to samo jaz.
08:45
So the math says then
that what you should do
that what you should do
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Matematika pravi,
da kar morate narediti, je,
da kar morate narediti, je,
08:48
in the first 37 percent
of your dating window,
of your dating window,
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da v prvih 37 % svojega okna za zmenke
08:51
you should just reject everybody
as serious marriage potential.
as serious marriage potential.
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vse zavrnete kot
neresne potenciale za poroko.
neresne potenciale za poroko.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
08:57
And then, you should pick the
next person that comes along
next person that comes along
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Potem pa bi morali izbrati
naslednjo osebo, ki pride mimo
naslednjo osebo, ki pride mimo
09:01
that is better than everybody
that you've seen before.
that you've seen before.
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in je boljša od vseh,
ki ste jih videli do takrat.
ki ste jih videli do takrat.
09:04
So here's the example.
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Tu je primer.
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be
mathematically proven, in fact,
mathematically proven, in fact,
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Če to naredite,
se lahko dejansko matematično dokaže,
se lahko dejansko matematično dokaže,
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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da je to najboljši možni način
09:10
of maximizing your chances
of finding the perfect partner.
of finding the perfect partner.
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za povečanje vaših možnosti
za najdbo popolnega partnerja.
za najdbo popolnega partnerja.
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that
this method does come with some risks.
this method does come with some risks.
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Žal vam moram povedati, da ta metoda
prinaša tudi določena tveganja.
prinaša tudi določena tveganja.
09:20
For instance, imagine if
your perfect partner appeared
your perfect partner appeared
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Na primer, predstavljajte si,
da se je vaš popolni partner pojavil
da se je vaš popolni partner pojavil
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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med prvimi 37 odstotki.
09:28
Now, unfortunately,
you'd have to reject them.
you'd have to reject them.
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Žal bi jih morali zavrniti.
09:30
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
09:33
Now, if you're following the maths,
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Če sledite matematiki,
09:35
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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se bojim, da nihče ne pride mimo,
09:37
that's better than anyone
you've seen before,
you've seen before,
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ki bi bil boljši kot vsi,
ki ste jih videli pred tem,
ki ste jih videli pred tem,
09:39
so you have to go on
rejecting everyone and die alone.
rejecting everyone and die alone.
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zato morate še naprej vse zavračati
in umreti sami.
in umreti sami.
09:44
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats
nibbling at your remains.
nibbling at your remains.
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Verjetno obkroženi z mačkami,
ki grizljajo vaše ostanke.
ki grizljajo vaše ostanke.
09:51
Okay, another risk is,
let's imagine, instead,
let's imagine, instead,
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Prav, drugo tveganje je,
če si namesto tega predstavljate,
če si namesto tega predstavljate,
09:55
that the first people that you dated
in your first 37 percent
in your first 37 percent
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da so prvi ljudje,
s katerimi ste šli na zmenek v prvih 37 %,
s katerimi ste šli na zmenek v prvih 37 %,
09:58
are just incredibly dull,
boring, terrible people.
boring, terrible people.
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tako neverjetno pusti,
dolgočasni, grozni ljudje.
dolgočasni, grozni ljudje.
10:02
Now, that's okay, because
you're in your rejection phase,
you're in your rejection phase,
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To je sicer v redu,
ker ste v fazi zavračanja,
ker ste v fazi zavračanja,
10:05
so thats fine,
you can reject them.
you can reject them.
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tako da je to ok,
lahko jih zavrnete.
lahko jih zavrnete.
10:07
But then imagine, the next
person to come along
person to come along
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Ampak potem si predstavljajte,
da je naslednja oseba, ki pride mimo,
da je naslednja oseba, ki pride mimo,
10:10
is just marginally less boring,
dull and terrible
dull and terrible
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le neznatno manj dolgočasna,
pusta in grozna,
pusta in grozna,
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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kot vsi, ki ste jih videli do takrat.
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths,
I'm afraid you have to marry them
I'm afraid you have to marry them
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Če sledite matematiki,
se bojim, da se morate poročiti z njo
se bojim, da se morate poročiti z njo
10:20
and end up in a relationship
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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in končati v razmerju, ki je,
odkrito, neoptimalna.
odkrito, neoptimalna.
10:24
Sorry about that.
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Se opravičujem.
10:25
But I do think that there's
an opportunity here
an opportunity here
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Vendar mislim, da je tu priložnost
10:27
for Hallmark to cash in on
and really cater for this market.
and really cater for this market.
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za Hallmark, da to unovči
in resnično zadovolji ta trg.
in resnično zadovolji ta trg.
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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Kartica za Valentinovo kot je ta.
(smeh)
(smeh)
10:32
"My darling husband, you
are marginally less terrible
are marginally less terrible
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4025
"Moj dragi mož, si neznatno manj grozen,
10:36
than the first 37 percent
of people I dated."
of people I dated."
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3045
kot prvih 37 odstotkov ljudi,
s katerimi sem bila na zmenku."
s katerimi sem bila na zmenku."
10:39
It's actually more romantic
than I normally manage.
than I normally manage.
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V bistvu je bolj romantično,
kot mi običajno uspeva.
kot mi običajno uspeva.
10:45
Okay, so this method doesn't give
you a 100 percent success rate,
you a 100 percent success rate,
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Ta metoda vam torej ne daje
100 odstotne stopnje uspeha,
100 odstotne stopnje uspeha,
10:50
but there's no other possible
strategy that can do any better.
strategy that can do any better.
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vendar ni druge možne strategije,
ki bi lahko bila boljša.
ki bi lahko bila boljša.
10:53
And actually, in the wild,
there are certain types
there are certain types
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Pravzaprav so v divjini določene vrste
10:56
of fish which follow and
employ this exact strategy.
employ this exact strategy.
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rib, ki sledijo
in uporabljajo prav to strategijo.
in uporabljajo prav to strategijo.
10:59
So they reject every possible
suitor that turns up
suitor that turns up
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Tako zavrnejo vsakega možnega snubca,
ki se pojavi
ki se pojavi
11:02
in the first 37 percent
of the mating season,
of the mating season,
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v prvih 37 odstotkih sezone parjenja,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish
that comes along after that window
that comes along after that window
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3531
potem pa izberejo prvo naslednjo ribo,
ki pride mimo po tem oknu,
ki pride mimo po tem oknu,
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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ki je, ne vem, večja in postavnejša,
11:11
than all of the fish
that they've seen before.
that they've seen before.
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kot vse ribe, ki so jih videle do takrat.
11:13
I also think that subconsciously,
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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Prav tako mislim, da podzavestno ljudje
na nek način to tako ali tako počnemo.
na nek način to tako ali tako počnemo.
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time
to play the field,
to play the field,
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3417
Nekaj časa si damo, da raziščemo teren,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace
or whatever when we're young.
or whatever when we're young.
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3502
dobimo občutek za tržišče ali karkoli,
ko smo mladi.
ko smo mladi.
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously
at potential marriage candidates
at potential marriage candidates
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Resno začnemo gledati za potencialnimi
kandidati za poroko,
kandidati za poroko,
11:30
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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ko pridemo v srednja do pozna dvajseta.
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof,
if ever it were needed,
if ever it were needed,
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Mislim, da je to prepričljiv dokaz,
če je sploh bil potreben,
če je sploh bil potreben,
11:34
that everybody's brains are prewired
to be just a little bit mathematical.
to be just a little bit mathematical.
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da so vsakogaršnji možgani narejeni tako,
da so vsaj malo matematični.
da so vsaj malo matematični.
11:39
Okay, so that was Top Tip #2.
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Prav, to je bil najboljši nasvet št. 2.
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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Zdaj pa najboljši nasvet št. 3:
Kako se izogniti ločitvi.
Kako se izogniti ločitvi.
11:44
Okay, so let's imagine then
that you picked your perfect partner
that you picked your perfect partner
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Prav, zamislimo si torej,
da ste si izbrali popolnega partnerja
da ste si izbrali popolnega partnerja
11:47
and you're settling into
a lifelong relationship with them.
a lifelong relationship with them.
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in se ustaljujete
v doživljenjsko razmerje z njim.
v doživljenjsko razmerje z njim.
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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Rada si mislim,
da bi se vsak rad izognil ločitvi,
da bi se vsak rad izognil ločitvi,
11:56
apart from, I don't know,
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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razen, ne vem,
Piers Morganove žene, mogoče?
Piers Morganove žene, mogoče?
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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A žalostno dejstvo sodobnega življenja je,
12:04
that 1 in 2 marriages in the
States ends in divorce,
States ends in divorce,
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3809
da se vsak drug zakon v Združenih državah
konča z razvezo,
konča z razvezo,
12:08
with the rest of the world
not being far behind.
not being far behind.
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ostali svet pa ne zaostaja veliko.
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
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2099
Morda se vam lahko oprosti,
12:13
for thinking that the arguments
that precede a marital breakup
that precede a marital breakup
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da mislite, da prepiri,
ki se pojavijo pred razdorom zakona
ki se pojavijo pred razdorom zakona
12:17
are not an ideal candidate
for mathematical investigation.
for mathematical investigation.
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niso idealni kandidat
za matematično preiskavo.
za matematično preiskavo.
12:20
For one thing, it's very hard to know
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1900
Kot prvo je zelo težko vedeti,
12:22
what you should be measuring
or what you should be quantifying.
or what you should be quantifying.
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kaj bi naj meril,
ali kaj bi naj preštel.
ali kaj bi naj preštel.
12:25
But this didn't stop a psychologist,
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
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A to ni ustavilo psihologa
Johna Gottmana, ki je naredil natančno to.
Johna Gottmana, ki je naredil natančno to.
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples
having a conversation
having a conversation
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Gottman je opazoval stotine parov,
ki so se pogovarjali
ki so se pogovarjali
12:37
and recorded, well,
everything you can think of.
everything you can think of.
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in posnel, torej,
vse, kar si lahko zamislite.
vse, kar si lahko zamislite.
12:40
So he recorded what was said
in the conversation,
in the conversation,
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Tako je posnel vse,
kar je bilo izrečeno v pogovoru,
kar je bilo izrečeno v pogovoru,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
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posnel je prevodnost njune kože,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
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1920
posnel je njuno obrazno mimiko,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
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njun srčni utrip, njun krvni tlak,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether
or not the wife was actually always right,
or not the wife was actually always right,
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v bistvu vse, razen tega,
ali ima žena vedno vse prav ali ne,
ali ima žena vedno vse prav ali ne,
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
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kar, mimogrede, seveda ima.
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
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A Gottman je s svojo ekipo odkril,
13:01
was that one of the
most important predictors
most important predictors
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da je en od
najpomembnejših napovedovalcev,
najpomembnejših napovedovalcev,
13:03
for whether or not a couple
is going to get divorced
is going to get divorced
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ali se bo par razšel ali ne,
13:05
was how positive or negative each
partner was being in the conversation.
partner was being in the conversation.
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bilo to, kako pozitiven ali negativen
je bil v pogovoru vsak od partnerjev.
je bil v pogovoru vsak od partnerjev.
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
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Pari z zelo nizkim tveganjem
13:13
scored a lot more positive points
on Gottman's scale than negative.
on Gottman's scale than negative.
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so dobili veliko več pozitivnih točk
na Gottmanovi lestvici kot negativnih.
na Gottmanovi lestvici kot negativnih.
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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Medtem ko so se slaba razmerja,
13:20
by which I mean, probably
going to get divorced,
going to get divorced,
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s čimer mislim,
da se bosta verjetno ločila,
da se bosta verjetno ločila,
13:22
they found themselves getting
into a spiral of negativity.
into a spiral of negativity.
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znašla v spirali negativnosti.
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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Samo z uporabo teh preprostih idej
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
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je Gottman s svojo ekipo uspel predvideti,
13:32
whether a given couple
was going to get divorced
was going to get divorced
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ali se bo določen par ločil
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
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z 90-odstotno natančnostjo.
13:37
But it wasn't until he teamed up
with a mathematician, James Murray,
with a mathematician, James Murray,
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Vendar so šele takrat, ko se je združil
z matematikom Jamesom Murrayjem,
z matematikom Jamesom Murrayjem,
13:41
that they really started to understand
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resnično začeli razumeti,
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals
and how they occur.
and how they occur.
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kaj povzroča te spirale negativnosti
in kako se pojavijo.
in kako se pojavijo.
13:47
And the results that they found
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Rezultati, ki so jih odkrili,
13:49
I think are just incredibly
impressively simple and interesting.
impressively simple and interesting.
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so po mojem mnenju neverjetno
in impresivno preprosti in zanimivi.
in impresivno preprosti in zanimivi.
13:53
So these equations, they predict how
the wife or husband is going to respond
the wife or husband is going to respond
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Ti enačbi predvidita odziv žene ali moža,
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
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ko bo na vrsti v pogovoru,
13:59
how positive or negative
they're going to be.
they're going to be.
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kako bosta pozitivna ali negativna.
14:02
And these equations, they depend on
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Ti enačbi sta odvisni od
14:03
the mood of the person
when they're on their own,
when they're on their own,
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razpoloženja osebe, ko je sama,
14:06
the mood of the person when
they're with their partner,
they're with their partner,
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razpoloženja osebe,
ko je s svojim partnerjem,
ko je s svojim partnerjem,
14:08
but most importantly, they depend on
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a najpomembneje, odvisni sta od tega,
14:10
how much the husband and wife
influence one another.
influence one another.
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kako močno mož in žena vplivata
drug na drugega.
drug na drugega.
14:13
Now, I think it's important
to point out at this stage,
to point out at this stage,
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Mislim, da je pomembno,
da na tej točki poudarim,
da na tej točki poudarim,
14:16
that these exact equations
have also been shown
have also been shown
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da se je izkazalo, da sta ti isti enačbi
14:19
to be perfectly able at describing
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bili popolnoma sposobni opisati,
14:22
what happens between two
countries in an arms race.
countries in an arms race.
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kaj se zgodi med dvema
državama v tekmi oboroževanja.
državama v tekmi oboroževanja.
14:26
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
14:30
So that -- an arguing couple
spiraling into negativity
spiraling into negativity
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To - prepirajoč par v spirali negativnosti
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce --
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in visenje na robu prepada ločitve -
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to
the beginning of a nuclear war.
the beginning of a nuclear war.
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je pravzaprav matematično enakovredno
začetku jedrske vojne.
začetku jedrske vojne.
14:40
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
14:42
But the really important term
in this equation
in this equation
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A resnično pomemben termin v tej enačbi
14:45
is the influence that people
have on one another,
have on one another,
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je vpliv,
ki ga imajo ljudje drug na drugega,
ki ga imajo ljudje drug na drugega,
14:47
and in particular, something called
the negativity threshold.
the negativity threshold.
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in še posebej, nekaj, čemur se reče
prag negativnosti.
prag negativnosti.
14:50
Now, the negativity threshold,
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Prag negativnosti
14:52
you can think of as
how annoying the husband can be
how annoying the husband can be
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si lahko predstavljate kot,
kako siten je lahko mož,
kako siten je lahko mož,
14:57
before the wife starts to get
really pissed off, and vice versa.
really pissed off, and vice versa.
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preden žena resnično postane besna
in obratno.
in obratno.
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages
were about compromise and understanding
were about compromise and understanding
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Vedno sem mislila, da dobri zakoni
temeljijo na kompromisu in razumevanju
temeljijo na kompromisu in razumevanju
15:06
and allowing the person to
have the space to be themselves.
have the space to be themselves.
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in dopuščanju,
da ima oseba prostor, da je, kar je.
da ima oseba prostor, da je, kar je.
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps
the most successful relationships
the most successful relationships
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Tako bi si mislila,
da so morda najuspešnejša razmerja
da so morda najuspešnejša razmerja
15:12
were ones where there was
a really high negativity threshold.
a really high negativity threshold.
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tista, ki imajo
zelo visok prag negativnosti.
zelo visok prag negativnosti.
Kjer pari pustijo, da gredo stvari mimo,
15:16
Where couples let things go
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15:17
and only brought things up if
they really were a big deal.
they really were a big deal.
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in jih privlečejo na dan samo,
če so resnično velika stvar.
če so resnično velika stvar.
15:20
But actually, the mathematics
and subsequent findings by the team
and subsequent findings by the team
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V resnici pa so matematika
in kasnejša odkritja ekipe
in kasnejša odkritja ekipe
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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pokazala ravno nasprotno.
15:27
The best couples,
or the most successful couples,
or the most successful couples,
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Najboljši pari,
ali najuspešnejši pari
ali najuspešnejši pari
15:29
are the ones with a really low
negativity threshold.
negativity threshold.
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so tisti, ki imajo
zelo nizek prag negativnosti.
zelo nizek prag negativnosti.
15:33
These are the couples that don't
let anything go unnoticed
let anything go unnoticed
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To so pari, ki ničemur ne dovolijo,
da gre mimo neopaženo
da gre mimo neopaženo
15:37
and allow each other
some room to complain.
some room to complain.
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in si vzajemno dopuščajo
nekaj prostora za pritoževanje.
nekaj prostora za pritoževanje.
15:40
These are the couples that are continually
trying to repair their own relationship,
trying to repair their own relationship,
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To so pari, ki se nenehno trudijo
popraviti svoje razmerje,
popraviti svoje razmerje,
15:45
that have a much more positive
outlook on their marriage.
outlook on their marriage.
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ki imajo veliko bolj pozitivno
sliko o svojem zakonu.
sliko o svojem zakonu.
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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Pari, ki ne pustijo, da gredo stvari mimo
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things
end up being a really big deal.
end up being a really big deal.
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in pari, ki ne pustijo, da bi nepomembne
stvari postale resnično velika stvar.
stvari postale resnično velika stvar.
15:56
Now of course, it takes bit more than
just a low negativity threshold
just a low negativity threshold
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Seveda je potrebno nekaj več,
kot le nizek prag negativnosti
kot le nizek prag negativnosti
16:02
and not compromising to
have a successful relationship.
have a successful relationship.
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in nesklepanje kompromisov,
da bi imeli uspešno razmerje.
da bi imeli uspešno razmerje.
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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Ampak mislim, da je zelo zanimivo
16:08
to know that there is really
mathematical evidence
mathematical evidence
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vedeti, da obstaja matematični dokaz,
16:11
to say that you should never
let the sun go down on your anger.
let the sun go down on your anger.
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ki pravi, da nikoli ne smemo pustiti,
da bi sonce zašlo nad našo jezo.
da bi sonce zašlo nad našo jezo.
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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To so torej moji trije nasveti,
16:16
of how maths can help you
with love and relationships.
with love and relationships.
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kako vam lahko matematika pomaga
pri ljubezni in odnosih.
pri ljubezni in odnosih.
16:19
But I hope
that aside from their use as tips,
that aside from their use as tips,
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A upam, da vam bodo poleg tega,
da so nasveti,
da so nasveti,
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight
into the power of mathematics.
into the power of mathematics.
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dali tudi nekaj uvida v moč matematike.
16:25
Because for me, equations
and symbols aren't just a thing.
and symbols aren't just a thing.
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Zame namreč enačbe in simboli
niso samo stvar.
niso samo stvar.
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out
about the incredible richness of nature
about the incredible richness of nature
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So glas, ki govori
o neverjetnem bogastvu narave
o neverjetnem bogastvu narave
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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in vznemirljivi preprostosti
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn
and warp and evolve all around us,
and warp and evolve all around us,
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v vzorcih, ki se zvijajo in obračajo
in raztezajo in razvijajo vse okoli nas,
in raztezajo in razvijajo vse okoli nas,
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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od tega, kako deluje svet,
do tega, kako se obnašamo.
do tega, kako se obnašamo.
16:44
So I hope that perhaps,
for just a couple of you,
for just a couple of you,
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Zato upam, da vas mogoče vsaj nekaj od vas
16:46
a little bit of insight into
the mathematics of love
the mathematics of love
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malo uvida v matematiko ljubezni
16:48
can persuade you to have
a little bit more love for mathematics.
a little bit more love for mathematics.
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lahko prepriča, da boste
imeli malo več ljubezni do matematike.
imeli malo več ljubezni do matematike.
16:52
Thank you.
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Hvala.
16:53
(Applause)
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(aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com