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Hannah Fry: The mathematics of love
Hannah Fry: Tafsiran cinta dari sudut matematik
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Menemui pasangan yang sesuai bukannya sebuah perkara yang mudah -- tapi mungkin matematik dapat membantu? Dalam ucapan yang menarik ini, ahli matematik, Hannah Fry, menunjukkan pola-pola bagaimana kita mencari pasangan, dan memberikan tiga petua (yang telah disahkan dari sudut matematik!) untuk membantu kita menemui orang yang istimewa itu.
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today I want to talk to you
about the mathematics of love.
about the mathematics of love.
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Hari ini, saya akan bercakap tentang
cinta dari sudut matematik.
cinta dari sudut matematik.
00:16
Now, I think that we can all agree
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Rasanya kita semua bersetuju
bahawa ahli matematik
pandai mencari kekasih.
pandai mencari kekasih.
00:18
that mathematicians
are famously excellent at finding love.
are famously excellent at finding love.
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(Gelak ketawa)
00:23
But it's not just
because of our dashing personalities,
because of our dashing personalities,
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Tapi, ia bukannya sekadar kerana
kami ada personaliti yang menarik,
kami ada personaliti yang menarik,
kemahiran berkomunikasi yang baik,
00:27
superior conversational skills
and excellent pencil cases.
and excellent pencil cases.
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dan kotak pensel yang hebat,
(Gelak ketawa)
00:31
It's also because we've actually done
an awful lot of work into the maths
an awful lot of work into the maths
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Ia juga kerana kami telah
meninjau dari sudut matematik
meninjau dari sudut matematik
cara untuk mencari pasangan yang sesuai.
00:36
of how to find the perfect partner.
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Dalam artikel kegemaran saya,
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper
on the subject, which is entitled,
on the subject, which is entitled,
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iaitu artikel Matematik yang bertajuk
00:41
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
(Laughter) --
(Laughter) --
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"Mengapa saya tidak ada teman wanita",
(Gelak ketawa)
(Gelak ketawa)
Peter Backus cuba menilai peluangnya
untuk menemui seorang kekasih.
untuk menemui seorang kekasih.
00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate
his chances of finding love.
his chances of finding love.
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Peter bukannya seorang lelaki yang tamak.
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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Antara semua perempuan di U.K.,
00:51
Of all of the available women in the U.K.,
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00:53
all Peter's looking for
is somebody who lives near him,
is somebody who lives near him,
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Peter mencari seseorang yang
tinggal berdekatan dengan rumahnya,
tinggal berdekatan dengan rumahnya,
00:56
somebody in the right age range,
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seseorang yang sesuai dari segi usia,
seseorang yang ada kelulusan universiti,
00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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seseorang yang dapat bergaul
secara baik dengannya,
secara baik dengannya,
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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seseorang yang menawan,
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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seseorang yang mendapati
dia menawan.
dia menawan.
01:05
somebody who's likely
to find him attractive.
to find him attractive.
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(Gelak ketawa)
01:08
(Laughter)
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Anggarannya, terdapat 26 perempuan
di U.K. yang sesuai dengannya.
di U.K. yang sesuai dengannya.
01:11
And comes up with an estimate
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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Ia tak kelihatan baik, betul, Peter?
01:17
It's not looking very good,
is it Peter?
is it Peter?
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Mari kita menilainya,
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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ia 400 kali ganda lebih kurang berbanding
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer
than the best estimates
than the best estimates
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anggaran jumlah makhluk asing yang wujud.
01:24
of how many intelligent
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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Bagi Peter, Peluangnya ialah
1 dalam 285,000
1 dalam 285,000
01:28
And it also gives Peter
a 1 in 285,000 chance
a 1 in 285,000 chance
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untuk bertemu salah seorang wanita
tersebut pada suatu malam.
tersebut pada suatu malam.
01:33
of bumping into any one
of these special ladies
of these special ladies
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01:35
on a given night out.
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01:37
I'd like to think
that's why mathematicians
that's why mathematicians
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Rasanya itulah sebabnya ahli matematik
tak suka keluar pada waktu malam.
tak suka keluar pada waktu malam.
01:39
don't really bother
going on nights out anymore.
going on nights out anymore.
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01:42
The thing is that I personally
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Saya tak bersetuju dengan
pandangan yang pesimistik ini,
pandangan yang pesimistik ini,
01:44
don't subscribe
to such a pessimistic view.
to such a pessimistic view.
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kerana saya tahu, anda semua pun tahu,
01:47
Because I know,
just as well as all of you do,
just as well as all of you do,
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01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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bahawa itu bukannya cinta.
Perasaan manusia bukannya
terkawal dan mudah diramal.
terkawal dan mudah diramal.
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered
and rational and easily predictable.
and rational and easily predictable.
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Tapi, saya tahu ia tak bermakna
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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bahawa matematik tak dapat membantu kita
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something
that it can offer us
that it can offer us
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kerana cinta, seperti pelbagai hidupan,
juga mempunyai polanya,
juga mempunyai polanya,
02:03
because, love, as with most of life,
is full of patterns
is full of patterns
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Pada asasnya, ilmu matematik
digunakan untuk mengkaji pola,
digunakan untuk mengkaji pola,
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately,
all about the study of patterns.
all about the study of patterns.
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02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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contohnya ramalan cuaca,
turun naik harga saham,
turun naik harga saham,
02:15
to the movement of the planets
or the growth of cities.
or the growth of cities.
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pergerakan planet,
atau perkembangan bandar.
atau perkembangan bandar.
02:18
And if we're being honest,
none of those things
none of those things
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Kita tahu, semua itu bukannya
terkawal dan mudah diramal.
terkawal dan mudah diramal.
02:21
are exactly neatly ordered
and easily predictable, either.
and easily predictable, either.
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02:24
Because I believe that mathematics
is so powerful that it has the potential
is so powerful that it has the potential
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Saya percaya bahawa
matematik sangat berguna,
matematik sangat berguna,
dan ia berpontensi memberi kita
perspektif yang baru,
perspektif yang baru,
02:29
to offer us a new way of looking
at almost anything.
at almost anything.
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02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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walaupun ia melibatkan sesuatu
yang penuh misteri seperti cinta.
yang penuh misteri seperti cinta.
Jadi, untuk menunjukkan kepada anda
02:37
And so, to try to persuade you
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02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent
and relevant mathematics is,
and relevant mathematics is,
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bahawa matematik amat mengagumkan,
hebat, dan berguna kepada kita,
hebat, dan berguna kepada kita,
02:43
I want to give you my top three
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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saya akan tunjukkan 3 petua untuk cinta
yang telah disahkan dari segi matematik.
yang telah disahkan dari segi matematik.
02:51
Okay, so Top Tip #1:
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Baiklah, Petua #1:
02:53
How to win at online dating.
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Cara untuk mencari kekasih
dalam laman janji temu.
dalam laman janji temu.
02:58
So my favorite online dating
website is OkCupid,
website is OkCupid,
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OkCupid ialah laman janji temu
kegemaran saya.
kegemaran saya.
03:02
not least because it was started
by a group of mathematicians.
by a group of mathematicians.
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Ia dimulakan oleh
sekumpulan ahli matematik.
sekumpulan ahli matematik.
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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Ahli-ahli matematik ini
telah mengumpulkan data
telah mengumpulkan data
03:07
they have been collecting data
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pengguna laman web itu
selama sepuluh tahun.
selama sepuluh tahun.
03:09
on everybody who uses their site
for almost a decade.
for almost a decade.
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03:11
And they've been trying
to search for patterns
to search for patterns
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Mereka cuba mencari pola-pola
pengguna memperkenalkan dirinya
pengguna memperkenalkan dirinya
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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03:16
and the way that we
interact with each other
interact with each other
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dan cara mereka berinteraksi
dalam laman janji temu.
dalam laman janji temu.
03:18
on an online dating website.
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Hasil-hasil kajian tersebut
sangat menarik.
sangat menarik.
03:19
And they've come up with some
seriously interesting findings.
seriously interesting findings.
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Tapi, yang menjadi kegemaran saya,
03:22
But my particular favorite
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03:24
is that it turns out
that on an online dating website,
that on an online dating website,
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didapati bahawa dalam laman janji temu,
03:27
how attractive you are
does not dictate how popular you are,
does not dictate how popular you are,
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daya tarikan anda tidak
menggambarkan kepopularan anda.
menggambarkan kepopularan anda.
Sebenarnya, jika orang lain rasa
bahawa anda adalah hodoh,
bahawa anda adalah hodoh,
03:33
and actually, having people
think that you're ugly
think that you're ugly
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03:37
can work to your advantage.
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mungkin ia adalah baik bagi anda.
03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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Saya akan menerangkannya.
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary
section of OkCupid,
section of OkCupid,
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Dalam sebuah bahagian
dalam OkCupid,
dalam OkCupid,
03:46
you are allowed to rate
how attractive you think people are
how attractive you think people are
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anda boleh menilai
daya tarikan pengguna lain
daya tarikan pengguna lain
dengan menggunakan
skor antara 1 hingga 5.
skor antara 1 hingga 5.
03:49
on a scale between 1 and 5.
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Jika kita membandingkan skor purata ini
03:52
Now, if we compare this score,
the average score,
the average score,
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dengan bilangan mesej yang
diterima sekumpulan pengguna,
diterima sekumpulan pengguna,
03:55
to how many messages a
selection of people receive,
selection of people receive,
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anda akan faham
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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perhubungan antara daya tarikan dengan
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity
on an online dating website.
on an online dating website.
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kepopularan dalam laman janji temu.
Inilah graf yang dihasilkan
oleh pihak OkCupid.
oleh pihak OkCupid.
04:03
This is the graph that the OkCupid guys
have come up with.
have come up with.
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04:07
And the important thing to notice
is that it's not totally true
is that it's not totally true
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Yang penting di sini,
orang yang amat menawan
orang yang amat menawan
04:10
that the more attractive you are,
the more messages you get.
the more messages you get.
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tidak semestinya akan
menerima mesej yang banyak.
menerima mesej yang banyak.
Tapi persoalannya ialah,
kenapa pengguna di sini
kenapa pengguna di sini
04:13
But the question arises then
of what is it about people up here
of what is it about people up here
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04:16
who are so much more popular
than people down here,
than people down here,
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adalah lebih popular
daripada pengguna di sini
daripada pengguna di sini
walaupun skor daya tarikan mereka
adalah sama?
adalah sama?
04:21
even though they have the
same score of attractiveness?
same score of attractiveness?
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04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just
straightforward looks that are important.
straightforward looks that are important.
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Sebabnya, rupa tidak begitu penting.
Saya akan menerangkannya
dengan menggunakan satu contoh.
dengan menggunakan satu contoh.
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their
findings with an example.
findings with an example.
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Ini ialah Portia de Rossi.
04:31
So if you take someone like
Portia de Rossi, for example,
Portia de Rossi, for example,
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04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi
is a very beautiful woman.
is a very beautiful woman.
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Semua orang bersetuju bahawa
Portia de Rossi sangat cantik.
Portia de Rossi sangat cantik.
Tiada orang rasa dia adalah hodoh,
tapi dia bukannya supermodel.
tapi dia bukannya supermodel.
04:40
Nobody thinks that she's ugly,
but she's not a supermodel, either.
but she's not a supermodel, either.
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04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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Jika Portia de Rossi dibandingkan
dengan Sarah Jessica Parker,
dengan Sarah Jessica Parker,
04:48
now, a lot of people,
myself included, I should say,
myself included, I should say,
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ramai orang, termasuk saya,
04:51
think that Sarah Jessica Parker
is seriously fabulous
is seriously fabulous
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rasa bahawa Sarah Jessica Parker
sangat cantik,
sangat cantik,
04:56
and possibly one of the
most beautiful creatures
most beautiful creatures
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dan mungkin dia merupakan
salah seorang manusia
salah seorang manusia
04:58
to have ever have walked
on the face of the Earth.
on the face of the Earth.
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yang paling cantik di bumi.
05:01
But some other people,
i.e., most of the Internet,
i.e., most of the Internet,
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Tapi orang lain, iaitu
kebanyakan pengguna Internet,
kebanyakan pengguna Internet,
(Gelak ketawa)
05:07
seem to think that she looks
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
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rasa bahawa dia nampak seperti kuda.
(Gelak ketawa)
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people
how attractive they thought
how attractive they thought
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Saya rasa jika orang ramai
diminta untuk menilai
diminta untuk menilai
05:17
Sarah Jessica Parker
or Portia de Rossi were,
or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sarah Jessica Parker
atau Portia de Rossi
atau Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give
them a score between 1 and 5,
them a score between 1 and 5,
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dengan menggunakan
skor antara 1 hingga 5,
skor antara 1 hingga 5,
saya rasa kedua-duanya akan
mendapat skor yang hampir sama.
mendapat skor yang hampir sama.
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out
to have roughly the same score.
to have roughly the same score.
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Tapi, cara orang ramai mengundi
adalah sangat berbeza.
adalah sangat berbeza.
05:25
But the way that people would vote
would be very different.
would be very different.
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Orang ramai akan
memberi Portia skor 4
memberi Portia skor 4
05:27
So Portia's scores would
all be clustered around the 4
all be clustered around the 4
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kerana mereka bersetuju
bahawa dia sangat cantik,
bahawa dia sangat cantik,
05:30
because everybody agrees
that she's very beautiful,
that she's very beautiful,
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manakala skor yang
diterima Sarah Jesica Parker
diterima Sarah Jesica Parker
05:32
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker
completely divides opinion.
completely divides opinion.
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adalah berbelah bagi.
05:35
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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Sebenarnya, perbezaan inilah
yang bermakna.
yang bermakna.
05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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Perbezaan inilah yang
menjadikan anda lebih popular
menjadikan anda lebih popular
05:40
It's this spread
that makes you more popular
that makes you more popular
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dalam laman janji temu.
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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Jadi, ia bermakna,
05:45
So what that means then
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05:46
is that if some people
think that you're attractive,
think that you're attractive,
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jika ada orang rasa bahawa
anda adalah menawan,
anda adalah menawan,
05:48
you're actually better off
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maka ada juga orang yang rasa
05:50
having some other people
think that you're a massive minger.
think that you're a massive minger.
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bahawa anda tak menawan.
Ia adalah lebih baik daripada
semua orang rasa
semua orang rasa
05:55
That's much better
than everybody just thinking
than everybody just thinking
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anda seorang yang comel.
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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05:59
Now, I think this begins
makes a bit more sense
makes a bit more sense
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Rasanya ia lebih munasabah
jika anda melihatnya dari sudut
pengguna yang menghantar mesej.
pengguna yang menghantar mesej.
06:02
when you think in terms of the people
who are sending these messages.
who are sending these messages.
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Katakanlah anda rasa
seseorang itu adalah menawan,
seseorang itu adalah menawan,
06:05
So let's say that you think
somebody's attractive,
somebody's attractive,
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06:07
but you suspect that other people
won't necessarily be that interested.
won't necessarily be that interested.
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tapi anda rasa mungkin orang lain
tak berminat padanya.
tak berminat padanya.
06:11
That means there's
less competition for you
less competition for you
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Maksudnya, anda tak ada pesaing yang ramai
06:14
and it's an extra incentive
for you to get in touch.
for you to get in touch.
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dan anda berpeluang
berhubung dengan orang itu.
berhubung dengan orang itu.
06:16
Whereas compare that
to if you think somebody is attractive
to if you think somebody is attractive
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Bandingkan, jika anda rasa
seseorang itu adalah menawan,
seseorang itu adalah menawan,
06:19
but you suspect that everybody
is going to think they're attractive.
is going to think they're attractive.
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tapi anda rasa orang lain pun rasa begitu.
06:23
Well, why would you bother
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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Anda tak mahu memalukan
diri sendiri, betul?
diri sendiri, betul?
06:26
Here's where the really
interesting part comes.
interesting part comes.
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Berikut ialah bahagian
yang sangat menarik.
yang sangat menarik.
06:28
Because when people choose the pictures
that they use on an online dating website,
that they use on an online dating website,
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Bila pengguna memilih gambar yang
akan terpapar dalam laman janji temu,
akan terpapar dalam laman janji temu,
06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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selalunya mereka cuba mengelakkan
06:35
that they think some people
will find unattractive.
will find unattractive.
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bahagian yang mereka rasa akan
kelihatan hodoh bagi orang lain.
kelihatan hodoh bagi orang lain.
Contoh yang klasik, orang yang gemuk
06:39
The classic example is people
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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06:43
deliberately choosing
a very cropped photo,
a very cropped photo,
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akan memilih gambar
yang telah diubah suai,
yang telah diubah suai,
06:46
or bald men, for example,
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atau contohnya, orang yang botak
06:48
deliberately choosing pictures
where they're wearing hats.
where they're wearing hats.
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akan memilih gambar yang
menunjukkannya memakai topi.
menunjukkannya memakai topi.
06:51
But actually this is the opposite
of what you should do
of what you should do
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Tapi, anda tak patut membuat begitu
jika anda mahu berjaya.
jika anda mahu berjaya.
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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Anda sepatutnya menggunakan sesuatu
yang menjadikan anda berbeza,
yang menjadikan anda berbeza,
06:55
You should really, instead, play up to
whatever it is that makes you different,
whatever it is that makes you different,
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07:00
even if you think that some people
will find it unattractive.
will find it unattractive.
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walaupun mungkin orang lain
akan rasa ia adalah hodoh.
akan rasa ia adalah hodoh.
07:04
Because the people who fancy you
are just going to fancy you anyway,
are just going to fancy you anyway,
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Sebab, orang yang sukakan anda
tak kisahkan semua itu.
tak kisahkan semua itu.
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't,
well, they only play up to your advantage.
well, they only play up to your advantage.
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Orang yang tak sukakan anda pula
boleh membantu anda.
boleh membantu anda.
Baiklah, Petua #2:
Cara untuk memilih pasangan yang sesuai.
Cara untuk memilih pasangan yang sesuai.
07:12
Okay, Top Tip #2:
How to pick the perfect partner.
How to pick the perfect partner.
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07:14
So let's imagine then
that you're a roaring success
that you're a roaring success
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Katakanlah anda sangat popular
dalam laman janji temu.
dalam laman janji temu.
07:17
on the dating scene.
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07:19
But the question arises
of how do you then convert that success
of how do you then convert that success
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Tapi, bagaimana anda berubah
daripada menjadi popular
daripada menjadi popular
07:23
into longer-term happiness
and in particular,
and in particular,
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kepada menikmati kebahagian
jangka panjang, iaitu
jangka panjang, iaitu
07:27
how do you decide
when is the right time to settle down?
when is the right time to settle down?
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bagaimana anda tahu sudah
tiba masanya untuk berkahwin?
tiba masanya untuk berkahwin?
Biasanya, pengguna dinasihatkan
07:31
Now generally,
it's not advisable to just cash in
it's not advisable to just cash in
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jangan berkahwin dengan
orang pertama yang muncul
orang pertama yang muncul
07:34
and marry the first person
who comes along
who comes along
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dan menunjukkan minat pada anda.
07:36
and shows you any interest at all.
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Tapi, anda juga tak mahu
menunggu terlalu lama
menunggu terlalu lama
07:38
But, equally, you don't really
want to leave it too long
want to leave it too long
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07:41
if you want to maximize your
chance of long-term happiness.
chance of long-term happiness.
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jika anda mahu memperoleh
kebahagian jangka panjang.
kebahagian jangka panjang.
07:44
As my favorite author,
Jane Austen, puts it,
Jane Austen, puts it,
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Seperti yang ditulis penulis
kegemaran saya, Jane Austen,
kegemaran saya, Jane Austen,
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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"Perempuan bujang
yang berusia 7 dan 20 tahun
yang berusia 7 dan 20 tahun
07:50
can never hope to feel or
inspire affection again."
inspire affection again."
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tidak lagi dapat merasai atau
mencetuskan rasa kasih sayang."
mencetuskan rasa kasih sayang."
(Gelak ketawa)
07:53
(Laughter)
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07:55
Thanks a lot, Jane.
What do you know about love?
What do you know about love?
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Terima kasih, Jane.
Apa yang awak tahu tentang cinta?
Apa yang awak tahu tentang cinta?
07:59
So the question is then,
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Jadi, persoalannya ialah,
bagaimana anda tahu
sudah tiba masanya untuk berkahwin
sudah tiba masanya untuk berkahwin
08:01
how do you know when
is the right time to settle down
is the right time to settle down
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bila terdapatnya ramai orang
yang boleh dipilih?
yang boleh dipilih?
08:03
given all the people
that you can date in your lifetime?
that you can date in your lifetime?
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Syukurlah, terdapat sebuah
teori matematik yang boleh digunakan
teori matematik yang boleh digunakan
08:06
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit
of mathematics that we can use
of mathematics that we can use
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untuk membantu kita, iaitu
teori pemberhentian optimum.
teori pemberhentian optimum.
08:10
to help us out here, called
optimal stopping theory.
optimal stopping theory.
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08:12
So let's imagine then,
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Jadi, bayangkan,
anda mula berdating
semasa anda berusia 15 tahun.
semasa anda berusia 15 tahun.
08:14
that you start dating when you're 15
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08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married
by the time that you're 35.
by the time that you're 35.
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Secara ideal, anda mahu berkahwin
semasa anda berusia 35 tahun.
semasa anda berusia 35 tahun.
Terdapat sebilangan orang
08:21
And there's a number of people
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yang anda boleh keluar bersama
sepanjang hidup anda
sepanjang hidup anda
08:22
that you could potentially
date across your lifetime,
date across your lifetime,
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dan kualiti mereka adalah berbeza-beza.
08:25
and they'll be at varying
levels of goodness.
levels of goodness.
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Peraturannya, setelah anda berkahwin,
08:27
Now the rules are that once
you cash in and get married,
you cash in and get married,
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anda tak boleh mencari calon lain
yang berpotensi dikahwini.
yang berpotensi dikahwini.
08:30
you can't look ahead to see
what you could have had,
what you could have had,
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Anda juga tak boleh
mencari bekas kekasih dan bercerai.
mencari bekas kekasih dan bercerai.
08:32
and equally, you can't go back
and change your mind.
and change your mind.
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08:35
In my experience at least,
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Berdasarkan pengalaman saya,
08:37
I find that typically people don't
much like being recalled
much like being recalled
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seseorang itu tak suka
berjumpa bekas kekasihnya
berjumpa bekas kekasihnya
08:39
years after being passed up
for somebody else, or that's just me.
for somebody else, or that's just me.
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setelah mereka berpisah
disebabkan orang lain.
disebabkan orang lain.
Mungkin itu cuma saya.
Jadi, matematik menunjukkan
apa yang anda patut buat
apa yang anda patut buat
08:45
So the math says then
that what you should do
that what you should do
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pada 37% pertama
dalam masa berdating anda,
dalam masa berdating anda,
08:48
in the first 37 percent
of your dating window,
of your dating window,
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08:51
you should just reject everybody
as serious marriage potential.
as serious marriage potential.
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anda patut menolak setiap orang yang
berpotensi berkahwin dengan anda.
berpotensi berkahwin dengan anda.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(Gelak ketawa)
08:57
And then, you should pick the
next person that comes along
next person that comes along
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Kemudian, anda patut memilih
orang seterusnya yang anda temui
orang seterusnya yang anda temui
09:01
that is better than everybody
that you've seen before.
that you've seen before.
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kerana dia adalah lebih baik
berbanding yang lain.
berbanding yang lain.
09:04
So here's the example.
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Inilah contohnya.
Jika anda berbuat demikian,
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be
mathematically proven, in fact,
mathematically proven, in fact,
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sebenarnya ia boleh dibuktikan dari segi
matematik bahawa inilah cara terbaik
matematik bahawa inilah cara terbaik
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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09:10
of maximizing your chances
of finding the perfect partner.
of finding the perfect partner.
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untuk memaksimumkan peluang anda
menemui pasangan yang sesuai.
menemui pasangan yang sesuai.
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that
this method does come with some risks.
this method does come with some risks.
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Malangnya, saya perlu beritahu anda
bahawa cara ini mempunyai risikonya.
bahawa cara ini mempunyai risikonya.
09:20
For instance, imagine if
your perfect partner appeared
your perfect partner appeared
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Sebagai contoh, bayangkan jika
pasangan yang sesuai itu ditemui
pasangan yang sesuai itu ditemui
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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dalam 37% yang pertama.
Malangnya, anda perlu menolaknya.
09:28
Now, unfortunately,
you'd have to reject them.
you'd have to reject them.
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09:30
(Laughter)
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(Gelak ketawa)
09:33
Now, if you're following the maths,
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Jika anda percayakan kiraan matematik,
09:35
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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dan jika anda tidak menemui orang
yang lebih baik daripada yang lain,
yang lebih baik daripada yang lain,
09:37
that's better than anyone
you've seen before,
you've seen before,
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09:39
so you have to go on
rejecting everyone and die alone.
rejecting everyone and die alone.
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maka anda terpaksa menolak sesiapa pun
dan mati bersendirian.
(Gelak ketawa)
09:44
(Laughter)
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Mungkin anda akan dikelilingi kucing
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats
nibbling at your remains.
nibbling at your remains.
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yang menggigit-gigit mayat anda.
Baiklah, risiko yang kedua, bayangkan,
09:51
Okay, another risk is,
let's imagine, instead,
let's imagine, instead,
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09:55
that the first people that you dated
in your first 37 percent
in your first 37 percent
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orang pertama yang anda temui
dalam 37% yang pertama
dalam 37% yang pertama
09:58
are just incredibly dull,
boring, terrible people.
boring, terrible people.
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amat membosankan dan teruk.
Tidak mengapa, kerana
anda berada dalam fasa menolak.
anda berada dalam fasa menolak.
10:02
Now, that's okay, because
you're in your rejection phase,
you're in your rejection phase,
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Jadi, tidak mengapa,
anda boleh menolaknya.
anda boleh menolaknya.
10:05
so thats fine,
you can reject them.
you can reject them.
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10:07
But then imagine, the next
person to come along
person to come along
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Tapi bayangkan,
orang seterusnya yang anda temui
orang seterusnya yang anda temui
tidak begitu membosankan dan teruk
10:10
is just marginally less boring,
dull and terrible
dull and terrible
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berbanding orang lain yang anda temui.
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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Jika anda percayakan kiraan matematik,
maka anda terpaksa berkahwin dengannya
maka anda terpaksa berkahwin dengannya
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths,
I'm afraid you have to marry them
I'm afraid you have to marry them
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10:20
and end up in a relationship
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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dan menjalani perkahwinan
yang tidak bahagia.
yang tidak bahagia.
Saya berasa kesal dengannya.
10:24
Sorry about that.
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10:25
But I do think that there's
an opportunity here
an opportunity here
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Tapi saya rasa Hallmark
boleh memanfaatkannya
boleh memanfaatkannya
10:27
for Hallmark to cash in on
and really cater for this market.
and really cater for this market.
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dan membuka pasaran ini.
Kad Hari Valentine seperti ini.
(Gelak ketawa)
(Gelak ketawa)
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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10:32
"My darling husband, you
are marginally less terrible
are marginally less terrible
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4025
"Suamiku yang dikasihi,
kau taklah begitu teruk berbanding
lelaki dalam 37% pertama
yang keluar dengan aku."
yang keluar dengan aku."
10:36
than the first 37 percent
of people I dated."
of people I dated."
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10:39
It's actually more romantic
than I normally manage.
than I normally manage.
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Sebenarnya, ia lebih romatik
daripada apa yang saya usahakan.
daripada apa yang saya usahakan.
10:45
Okay, so this method doesn't give
you a 100 percent success rate,
you a 100 percent success rate,
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Jadi, cara ini tidak memberikan
kadar kejayaan 100%,
kadar kejayaan 100%,
tapi tidak terdapatnya
strategi lain yang lebih baik.
strategi lain yang lebih baik.
10:50
but there's no other possible
strategy that can do any better.
strategy that can do any better.
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Sebenarnya, terdapatnya
beberapa jenis ikan
beberapa jenis ikan
10:53
And actually, in the wild,
there are certain types
there are certain types
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10:56
of fish which follow and
employ this exact strategy.
employ this exact strategy.
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yang mengikut dan
menggunakan strategi ini.
menggunakan strategi ini.
Ikan-ikan ini menolak pelamar
yang berada dalam
yang berada dalam
10:59
So they reject every possible
suitor that turns up
suitor that turns up
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11:02
in the first 37 percent
of the mating season,
of the mating season,
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37% yang pertama
semasa musim mengawan,
semasa musim mengawan,
kemudian ikan-ikan ini memilih
ikan seterusnya yang ditemui selepas itu,
ikan seterusnya yang ditemui selepas itu,
11:05
and then they pick the next fish
that comes along after that window
that comes along after that window
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11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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entahlah, mungkin
yang lebih besar dan kuat
yang lebih besar dan kuat
11:11
than all of the fish
that they've seen before.
that they've seen before.
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berbanding ikan-ikan lain
yang ditemui sebelum itu.
yang ditemui sebelum itu.
11:13
I also think that subconsciously,
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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Rasanya tanpa disedari,
manusia juga berbuat demikian.
manusia juga berbuat demikian.
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time
to play the field,
to play the field,
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Kita memberikan masa kepada
diri sendiri untuk berseronok,
diri sendiri untuk berseronok,
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace
or whatever when we're young.
or whatever when we're young.
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meninjau pasaran kita dan sebagainya
bila kita masih muda.
bila kita masih muda.
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously
at potential marriage candidates
at potential marriage candidates
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Kita mula mencari secara serius
calon yang sesuai dikahwini
calon yang sesuai dikahwini
11:30
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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bila mencecah usia pertengahan 20-an.
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof,
if ever it were needed,
if ever it were needed,
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Rasanya ini ialah bukti yang konklusif,
11:34
that everybody's brains are prewired
to be just a little bit mathematical.
to be just a little bit mathematical.
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4506
bahawa otak kita boleh
mengira secara semula jadi.
mengira secara semula jadi.
Baiklah, itulah dia Petua #2.
11:39
Okay, so that was Top Tip #2.
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1861
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
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Sekarang, Petua #3:
Cara untuk mengelakkan perceraian.
Cara untuk mengelakkan perceraian.
11:44
Okay, so let's imagine then
that you picked your perfect partner
that you picked your perfect partner
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Bayangkan anda telah
memilih pasangan yang sesuai,
memilih pasangan yang sesuai,
11:47
and you're settling into
a lifelong relationship with them.
a lifelong relationship with them.
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dan anda telah berkahwin dengannya.
Secara ideal, saya rasa semua orang
mahu mengelakkan perceraian,
mahu mengelakkan perceraian,
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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11:56
apart from, I don't know,
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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melainkan, entahlah,
mungkin isteri Piers Morgan?
mungkin isteri Piers Morgan?
Tapi, memang menyedihkan,
dalam kehidupan moden,
dalam kehidupan moden,
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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12:04
that 1 in 2 marriages in the
States ends in divorce,
States ends in divorce,
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3809
1 dalam 2 perkahwinan di Amerika
berakhir dengan perceraian,
berakhir dengan perceraian,
negara-negara lain
tidak begitu ketinggalan.
tidak begitu ketinggalan.
12:08
with the rest of the world
not being far behind.
not being far behind.
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12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
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2099
Anda boleh dimaafkan
12:13
for thinking that the arguments
that precede a marital breakup
that precede a marital breakup
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jika anda berfikir bahawa perbalahan
yang mencetuskan perceraian
yang mencetuskan perceraian
12:17
are not an ideal candidate
for mathematical investigation.
for mathematical investigation.
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bukannya perkara yang ideal
untuk dinilai dari segi matematik.
untuk dinilai dari segi matematik.
12:20
For one thing, it's very hard to know
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1900
Sebab, adalah sukar untuk menentukan
12:22
what you should be measuring
or what you should be quantifying.
or what you should be quantifying.
232
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apa yang patut dinilai
atau dinyatakan kuantitinya.
atau dinyatakan kuantitinya.
12:25
But this didn't stop a psychologist,
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
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Tapi, ia tidak menghalang ahli psikologi,
John Gottman, berbuat demikian.
John Gottman, berbuat demikian.
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples
having a conversation
having a conversation
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Gottman memerhatikan
beratus-ratus pasangan berbual
beratus-ratus pasangan berbual
12:37
and recorded, well,
everything you can think of.
everything you can think of.
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dan merekodkan semua perbualan mereka.
12:40
So he recorded what was said
in the conversation,
in the conversation,
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2487
Jadi, dia merekodkan apa yang dibualkan,
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
237
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kekonduksian kulit mereka,
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
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752614
1920
air muka mereka,
kadar denyutan jantung,
dan tekanan darah mereka,
dan tekanan darah mereka,
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
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2340
pada dasarnya semua perkara,
12:48
basically everything apart from whether
or not the wife was actually always right,
or not the wife was actually always right,
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kecuali sama ada kata-kata si isteri
adalah sentiasa betul.
adalah sentiasa betul.
Sebenarnya, kata-kata
si isteri memang betul.
si isteri memang betul.
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
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12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
242
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2920
Tapi, apa yang ditemui
Gottman dan pasukannya
Gottman dan pasukannya
13:01
was that one of the
most important predictors
most important predictors
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2504
ialah salah satu peramal
yang amat penting bagi
yang amat penting bagi
sama ada pasangan
suami isteri akan bercerai,
suami isteri akan bercerai,
13:03
for whether or not a couple
is going to get divorced
is going to get divorced
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2150
13:05
was how positive or negative each
partner was being in the conversation.
partner was being in the conversation.
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5100
iaitu sikap yang positif atau negatif
dalam perbualan.
dalam perbualan.
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
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2612
Pasangan suami isteri
yang ada risiko yang rendah
yang ada risiko yang rendah
13:13
scored a lot more positive points
on Gottman's scale than negative.
on Gottman's scale than negative.
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mendapat lebih banyak skor positif
berdasarkan ukuran Gottman.
berdasarkan ukuran Gottman.
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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Manakala bagi perhubungan yang teruk,
13:20
by which I mean, probably
going to get divorced,
going to get divorced,
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iaitu mereka yang mungkin akan bercerai,
13:22
they found themselves getting
into a spiral of negativity.
into a spiral of negativity.
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mereka berada dalam
keadaan yang negatif.
keadaan yang negatif.
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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Dengan menggunakan cara yang mudah ini,
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
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Gottman dan kumpulannya dapat meramal
13:32
whether a given couple
was going to get divorced
was going to get divorced
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sama ada pasangan
suami isteri akan bercerai
suami isteri akan bercerai
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
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dan ketepatan ramalan ialah 90%.
13:37
But it wasn't until he teamed up
with a mathematician, James Murray,
with a mathematician, James Murray,
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Setelah dia bekerjasama dengan
seorang ahli matematik, James Murray,
seorang ahli matematik, James Murray,
13:41
that they really started to understand
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mereka mula memahami
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals
and how they occur.
and how they occur.
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apa yang menyebabkan keadaan
negatif ini dan bagaimana ia berlaku.
negatif ini dan bagaimana ia berlaku.
13:47
And the results that they found
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Saya rasa hasil dapatan mereka
amat mudah difahami dan menarik.
amat mudah difahami dan menarik.
13:49
I think are just incredibly
impressively simple and interesting.
impressively simple and interesting.
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13:53
So these equations, they predict how
the wife or husband is going to respond
the wife or husband is going to respond
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Kedua-dua persamaan ini meramalkan
bagaimana si isteri atau suami
akan menjawab
akan menjawab
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
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dalam perbualan yang seterusnya,
sama ada secara positif atau negatif.
13:59
how positive or negative
they're going to be.
they're going to be.
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Kedua-dua persamaan ini bergantung pada
14:02
And these equations, they depend on
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anginnya semasa dia bersendirian,
14:03
the mood of the person
when they're on their own,
when they're on their own,
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anginnya semasa dia bersama pasangannya,
14:06
the mood of the person when
they're with their partner,
they're with their partner,
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tapi yang terpenting, ia bergantung pada
14:08
but most importantly, they depend on
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setakat mana pasangan suami isteri itu
saling mempengaruhi.
saling mempengaruhi.
14:10
how much the husband and wife
influence one another.
influence one another.
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Pada ketika ini,
adalah penting untuk mengatakan
adalah penting untuk mengatakan
14:13
Now, I think it's important
to point out at this stage,
to point out at this stage,
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bahawa kedua-dua
persamaan ini juga didapati
persamaan ini juga didapati
14:16
that these exact equations
have also been shown
have also been shown
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14:19
to be perfectly able at describing
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dapat menunjukkan dengan tepat
apa yang berlaku antara dua negara
yang terlibat dalam perlumbaan senjata.
yang terlibat dalam perlumbaan senjata.
14:22
what happens between two
countries in an arms race.
countries in an arms race.
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14:26
(Laughter)
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(Gelak ketawa)
Jadi, pasangan suami isteri
yang berbalah,
yang berbalah,
14:30
So that -- an arguing couple
spiraling into negativity
spiraling into negativity
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berada dalam keadaan negatif,
dan hampir-hampir bercerai
dan hampir-hampir bercerai
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce --
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14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to
the beginning of a nuclear war.
the beginning of a nuclear war.
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adalah sama seperti permulaan
perang nuklear dari sudut matematik.
perang nuklear dari sudut matematik.
14:40
(Laughter)
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(Gelak ketawa)
Tapi, perkara yang penting
dalam kedua-dua persamaan ini
dalam kedua-dua persamaan ini
14:42
But the really important term
in this equation
in this equation
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14:45
is the influence that people
have on one another,
have on one another,
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ialah pengaruh seseorang itu
pada orang lain,
pada orang lain,
secara khusus, ia dikenali sebagai
ambang kenegatifan.
ambang kenegatifan.
14:47
and in particular, something called
the negativity threshold.
the negativity threshold.
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14:50
Now, the negativity threshold,
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Ambang kenegatifan boleh
dilihat dari segi betapa teruknya si suami
dilihat dari segi betapa teruknya si suami
14:52
you can think of as
how annoying the husband can be
how annoying the husband can be
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14:57
before the wife starts to get
really pissed off, and vice versa.
really pissed off, and vice versa.
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sehingga si isteri mula
berasa geram, dan sebaliknya.
berasa geram, dan sebaliknya.
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages
were about compromise and understanding
were about compromise and understanding
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Bagi saya, pasangan suami isteri yang
bahagia bertolak ansur, saling memahami,
bahagia bertolak ansur, saling memahami,
15:06
and allowing the person to
have the space to be themselves.
have the space to be themselves.
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dan memberikan ruang peribadi
kepada pasangannya.
kepada pasangannya.
Jadi, saya rasa pasangan suami isteri
yang amat bahagia
yang amat bahagia
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps
the most successful relationships
the most successful relationships
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15:12
were ones where there was
a really high negativity threshold.
a really high negativity threshold.
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mempunyai ambang kenegatifan
yang sangat tinggi.
yang sangat tinggi.
Mereka membiarkan saja sesuatu
15:16
Where couples let things go
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dan akan membincangkannya
jika ia sesuatu yang serius.
jika ia sesuatu yang serius.
15:17
and only brought things up if
they really were a big deal.
they really were a big deal.
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15:20
But actually, the mathematics
and subsequent findings by the team
and subsequent findings by the team
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Sebenarnya, persamaan matematik
dan hasil dapatan pasukan tersebut
dan hasil dapatan pasukan tersebut
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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telah menunjukkan yang sebaliknya.
15:27
The best couples,
or the most successful couples,
or the most successful couples,
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Pasangan suami isteri yang sangat bahagia
15:29
are the ones with a really low
negativity threshold.
negativity threshold.
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mempunyai ambang kenegatifan
yang sangat rendah.
yang sangat rendah.
15:33
These are the couples that don't
let anything go unnoticed
let anything go unnoticed
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Mereka tidak membiarkan sesuatu
dan memberikan ruang untuk
melahirkan rasa tidak puas hati.
melahirkan rasa tidak puas hati.
15:37
and allow each other
some room to complain.
some room to complain.
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15:40
These are the couples that are continually
trying to repair their own relationship,
trying to repair their own relationship,
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Mereka sentiasa cuba
membaiki perhubungan mereka
membaiki perhubungan mereka
dan ia memberikan kesan positif
pada perkahwinan mereka.
pada perkahwinan mereka.
15:45
that have a much more positive
outlook on their marriage.
outlook on their marriage.
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15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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Mereka tidak membiarkan sesuatu
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things
end up being a really big deal.
end up being a really big deal.
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dan tidak membenarkan perkara
yang remeh menjadi serius.
yang remeh menjadi serius.
Semestinya, bukan saja
ambang kenegatifan yang rendah
ambang kenegatifan yang rendah
15:56
Now of course, it takes bit more than
just a low negativity threshold
just a low negativity threshold
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dan saling bertolak ansur dapat
menghasilkan perhubungan yang baik.
menghasilkan perhubungan yang baik.
16:02
and not compromising to
have a successful relationship.
have a successful relationship.
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Saya rasa adalah agak menarik
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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16:08
to know that there is really
mathematical evidence
mathematical evidence
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kerana terdapatnya
bukti dari segi matematik
bukti dari segi matematik
16:11
to say that you should never
let the sun go down on your anger.
let the sun go down on your anger.
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yang menyatakan bahawa
jangan menyimpan kemarahan anda.
jangan menyimpan kemarahan anda.
Jadi, itulah dia tiga petua
dari sudut matematik
dari sudut matematik
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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16:16
of how maths can help you
with love and relationships.
with love and relationships.
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yang boleh membantu
soal cinta dan perhubungan anda.
soal cinta dan perhubungan anda.
Tapi saya berharap,
selain digunakan sebagai petua,
selain digunakan sebagai petua,
16:19
But I hope
that aside from their use as tips,
that aside from their use as tips,
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16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight
into the power of mathematics.
into the power of mathematics.
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ia juga dapat membuka mata anda
tentang kehebatan matematik.
tentang kehebatan matematik.
16:25
Because for me, equations
and symbols aren't just a thing.
and symbols aren't just a thing.
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Kerana bagi saya, persamaan dan simbol
bukannya merupakan sebuah perkara saja.
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out
about the incredible richness of nature
about the incredible richness of nature
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Ia juga merupakan sebuah suara
yang dapat menyatakan
kekayaan alam semula jadi
kekayaan alam semula jadi
dan keringkasan yang mengejutkan
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn
and warp and evolve all around us,
and warp and evolve all around us,
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yang terdapat dalam pola-pola
yang berada di sekitar kita,
yang berada di sekitar kita,
daripada bagaimana dunia ini berfungsi
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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sehingga bagaimana kita bertindak.
16:44
So I hope that perhaps,
for just a couple of you,
for just a couple of you,
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Saya berharap,
mungkin bagi beberapa orang,
mungkin bagi beberapa orang,
sedikit ilmu tentang
cinta dari sudut matematik
cinta dari sudut matematik
16:46
a little bit of insight into
the mathematics of love
the mathematics of love
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16:48
can persuade you to have
a little bit more love for mathematics.
a little bit more love for mathematics.
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dapat menggalakkan anda
agar lebih menyukai matematik.
agar lebih menyukai matematik.
16:52
Thank you.
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Terima kasih.
16:53
(Applause)
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(Tepukan)
Translated by PF Ng
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com