TEDGlobal 2010
Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing
Den Kobli: Šta me je fizika naučila o marketingu
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Čini se da fizika i marketing nemaju puno zajedničkog, ali Den Kobli je zainteresovan za obe stvari. On spaja ove naizgled nespojive oblasti koristeći drugi Njutnov zakon, Hajzenbergov princip neodređenosti, naučni metod i drugi zakon termodinamike kako bi objasnio fundamentalne teorije dinamike brendova.
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whiz
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need. Full bio
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So I work in marketing, which I love,
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Radim u marketingu, koji volim,
00:18
but my first passion was physics,
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ali moja prva strast je bila fizika,
00:21
a passion brought to me by a wonderful school teacher,
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strast sa kojom me je upoznao fenomenalan nastavnik
00:24
when I had a little less gray hair.
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kada mi je kosa bila malo manje siva.
00:27
So he taught me
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On mi je objasnio
00:29
that physics is cool
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da je fizika kul zato što
00:31
because it teaches us so much about the world around us.
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nas uči mnogim stvarima o svetu oko nas.
00:33
And I'm going to spend the next few minutes trying to convince you
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U narednih par minuta ću pokušati da vas ubedim
00:36
that physics can teach us something about marketing.
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da nam fizika može reći i ponešto o marketingu.
00:39
So quick show of hands --
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Kratka anketa podizanjem ruku -
00:41
who studied some marketing in university?
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ko je učio nešto o marketingu na fakultetu?
00:43
Who studied some physics in university?
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Ko je učio nešto o fizici na fakultetu?
00:45
Pretty good. And at school?
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O, veoma dobro. A u školi?
00:47
Okay, lots of you.
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Okej, puno vas.
00:49
So, hopefully this will bring back some happy,
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Stoga nadam se da će ovo doneti neka srećna
00:51
or possibly some slightly disturbing memories.
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ili, moguće, blago uznemirujuća sećanja.
00:54
So, physics and marketing.
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Dakle, fizika i marketing:
00:58
We'll start with something very simple -- Newton's Law:
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Počnimo nečim veoma jednostavnim, Njutnovim zakonom -
01:00
"The force equals mass times acceleration."
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"Sila je jednaka proizvodu mase i ubrzanja."
01:03
This is something that perhaps Turkish Airlines
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To je nešto što je turski avioprevoznik
01:05
should have studied a bit more carefully
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možda trebao bolje da prouči
01:08
before they ran this campaign.
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pre nego što su pokrenuli ovu kampanju.
01:10
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:13
But if we rearrange this formula quickly,
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Ako brzo preuredimo ovu formulu,
01:16
we can get to acceleration equals force over mass,
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dobijamo da je ubrzanje jednako količniku sile i mase,
01:19
which means
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što znači da je
01:21
that for a larger particle -- a larger mass --
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za veću česticu, tj. veću masu, potrebno
01:24
it requires more force to change its direction.
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uložiti veću silu da bi joj promenili pravac kretanja.
01:28
It's the same with brands:
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Isto važi i za brendove.
01:30
the more massive a brand, the more baggage it has,
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Što je brend glomazniji, što ima više "prtljaga",
01:33
the more force is needed to change its positioning.
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potrebna je veća sila da bi promenila njegovu poziciju.
01:36
And that's one of the reasons why
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To je jedan od razloga zašto je
01:38
Arthur Andersen chose to launch Accenture
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Artur Andersen odbrao da pokrene nov brend - Accenture
01:41
rather than try to persuade the world
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umesto da pokuša da ubedi svet da
01:43
that Andersen's could stand for something
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Anderseni mogu biti simbol još nečega
01:45
other than accountancy.
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pored računovodstva.
01:47
It explains why Hoover
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To objašnjava zašto je firmi Hoover
01:49
found it very difficult to persuade the world
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bilo veoma teško da ubedi svet
01:51
that it was more than vacuum cleaners,
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da je više od proizvođača usisivača,
01:53
and why companies like Unilever and P&G
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i zašto kompanije kao što su Unilever i P&G
01:56
keep brands separate,
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drže brendove razdvojene,
01:58
like Ariel and Pringles and Dove
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kao što su Oreo, Pringle i Dove,
02:01
rather than having one giant parent brand.
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umesto da imaju jedan ogroman "roditeljski" brend.
02:05
So the physics is that the bigger the mass of an object
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Dakle, fizika nas uči da što je veća masa objekta
02:08
the more force is needed
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veća sila je potrebna da bi se
02:10
to change its direction.
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promenio pravac njegovog kretanja.
02:12
The marketing is, the bigger a brand,
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U marketingu važi da što je veći brend
02:14
the more difficult it is to reposition it.
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teže je repozicionirati ga.
02:16
So think about a portfolio of brands
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Stoga, cilj je portfolio brendova
02:18
or maybe new brands for new ventures.
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ili novi brendovi za nove projekte.
02:21
Now, who remembers Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?
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Sada, ko se seća Hajzenbergovog principa neodređenosti?
02:24
Getting a little more technical now.
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Ovo je malo stručnije gradivo.
02:26
So this says that
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Ovaj princip nas uči da je
02:28
it's impossible, by definition,
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po definiciji nemoguće
02:30
to measure exactly the state -- i.e., the position --
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potpuno tačno izmeriti stanje, npr. poziciju,
02:32
and the momentum of a particle,
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i impuls čestice (proizvod brzine i mase),
02:34
because the act of measuring it, by definition, changes it.
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zato što sam čin merenja, po definiciji, menja česticu.
02:37
So to explain that -- if you've got an elementary particle
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Da objasnim - ako posmatrate elementarnu česticu
02:39
and you shine a light on it,
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i osvetlite je,
02:41
then the photon of light has momentum,
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foton te svetlosti ima impuls,
02:44
which knocks the particle,
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koji "udara" česticu,
02:47
so you don't know where it was before you looked at it.
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tako da ne znate gde je tačno bila pre nego što ste je "pogledali".
02:50
By measuring it,
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Merenje, sam čin merenja
02:52
the act of measurement changes it.
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menja česticu.
02:54
The act of observation changes it.
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Sam čin posmatranja je menja.
02:56
It's the same in marketing.
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Isto je i u marketingu.
02:58
So with the act of observing consumers, changes their behavior.
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Posmatranje potrošača menja njihovo ponašanje.
03:01
Think about the group of moms
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Zamislite grupu mama koje
03:04
who are talking about their wonderful children in a focus group,
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pričaju o svojoj divnoj deci u fokus grupi
03:07
and almost none of them buy lots of junk food.
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i kako skoro nijedna od njih ne kupuje brzu hranu.
03:10
And yet, McDonald's sells hundreds of millions of burgers every year.
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Pa ipak, McDonald's prodaje stotine miliona hamburgera svake godine.
03:13
Think about the people who are on accompanied shops in supermarkets,
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Zamislite ljude u supermarketima, koji su se složili da statističari
03:16
who stuff their trolleys
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analiziraju šta su kupili, kako pune svoja kolica
03:18
full of fresh green vegetables and fruit,
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svežim povrćem i voćem,
03:20
but don't shop like that any other day.
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ali nemaju takve kupovne navike bilo kog drugog dana.
03:23
And if you think about the number of people
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Razmislite koliko ljudi u anketama
03:25
who claim in surveys
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kaže da redovno pretražuje
03:27
to regularly look for porn on the Web,
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porno sadržaj na internetu -
03:29
it's very few.
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veoma malo njih.
03:31
Yet, at Google, we know it's the number-one searched for category.
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Ipak, mi iz Google-a znamo da je to najčešće korišćena kategorija za pretragu.
03:35
So luckily, the science --
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Stoga, srećom nauka -
03:37
no, sorry -- the marketing is getting easier.
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ne, izvinite - marketing postaje jednostavniji.
03:40
Luckily, with now better point-of-sale tracking,
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Zahvaljujući sve boljem praćenju na samom mestu prodaje,
03:43
more digital media consumption,
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porastu konzumiranja digitalnih medija,
03:45
you can measure more what consumers actually do,
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možete bolje meriti šta potrošači zaista rade,
03:48
rather than what they say they do.
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a ne šta kažu da rade.
03:50
So the physics is
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Dakle, u fizici
03:52
you can never accurately and exactly
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nikada ne možete meriti stanje čestice
03:54
measure a particle,
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sa potpunom tačnošću, budući da
03:56
because the observation changes it.
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sam čin posmatranja utiče na to stanje.
03:58
The marketing is -- the message for marketing is --
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U marketingu - ono što treba usvojiti u marketingu
04:01
that try to measure what consumers actually do,
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je da treba meriti šta potrošači zaista rade,
04:04
rather than what they say they'll do
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a ne ono što kažu da rade
04:06
or anticipate they'll do.
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ili što veruju da će raditi.
04:09
So next, the scientific method --
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Dalje, naučni metod,
04:12
an axiom of physics, of all science --
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aksiom fizike, svih nauka zapravo -
04:14
says you cannot prove a hypothesis through observation,
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kaže da posmatranjem ne možete dokazati hipotezu.
04:16
you can only disprove it.
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Jedino je možete opovrgnuti.
04:18
What this means is you can gather more and more data
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To znači da skupljanjem iznova novih podataka o
04:21
around a hypothesis or a positioning,
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nekoj hipotezi ili stavu,
04:23
and it will strengthen it, but it will not conclusively prove it.
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ojačavamo, ali nikada definitivno ne dokazujemo tu hipotezu ili stav.
04:26
And only one contrary data point
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Samo jedan protivrečan razultat eksperimenta
04:28
can blow your theory out of the water.
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može teoriju da učini nevažećom.
04:31
So if we take an example --
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Uzmimo kao primer Ptolomeja
04:33
Ptolemy had dozens of data points to support his theory
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koji je imao desetine podataka kao podršku svojoj teoriji
04:36
that the planets would rotate around the Earth.
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da se planete kreću oko Zemlje.
04:39
It only took one robust observation from Copernicus
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Jedno robusno posmatranje od strane Kopernika
04:42
to blow that idea out of the water.
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je bilo dovoljno da ta teorija postane nevažeća.
04:45
And there are parallels for marketing --
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Postoje paralele u marketingu.
04:47
you can invest for a long time in a brand,
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Možete dugo vremena investirati u brend,
04:50
but a single contrary observation of that positioning
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ali jedno jedino drugačije viđenje njegove pozicije
04:52
will destroy consumers' belief.
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će uništiti poverenje potrošača.
04:55
Take BP --
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Razmotrimo BP.
04:57
they spent millions of pounds over many years
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Godinama troše milione britanskih funti kako bi
04:59
building up its credentials as an environmentally friendly brand,
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izgradili ugled brenda prijateljskog ka životnoj okolini,
05:02
but then one little accident.
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a onda se desi jedna "mala" nesreća.
05:05
Think about Toyota.
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Razmislite o Tojoti.
05:07
It was, for a long time, revered
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Dugo vremena je smatrana
05:09
as the most reliable of cars,
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za najpouzdaniji auto,
05:11
and then they had the big recall incident.
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a onda se desio opoziv velikog broja njihovih vozila.
05:14
And Tiger Woods, for a long time,
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I Tajger Vuds, koji je dugo bio
05:16
the perfect brand ambassador.
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savršeni ambasador brendova.
05:18
Well, you know the story.
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Pa, znate priču.
05:20
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:26
So the physics is
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Dakle, u fizici je
05:28
that you cannot prove a hypothesis,
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nemoguće dokazati hipotezu,
05:30
but it's easy to disprove it --
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ali ju je lako opovrgnuti.
05:32
any hypothesis is shaky.
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Svaka hipoteza je na staklenim nogama.
05:34
And the marketing is
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U marketingu važi da
05:36
that not matter how much you've invested in your brand,
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nezavisno od toga koliko je uloženo u neki brend,
05:39
one bad week can undermine decades of good work.
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jedna loša nedelja može potkopati dekade dobrog rada.
05:42
So be really careful to try and avoid the screw-ups
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Stoga treba biti veoma pažljiv i izbegavati zamke
05:44
that can undermine your brand.
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koje mogu potkopati brend.
05:47
And lastly, to the slightly obscure world of entropy --
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Za kraj, pomalo nejasan svet entropije,
05:50
the second law of thermodynamics.
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drugog zakona termodinamike.
05:52
This says that entropy,
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On saopštava da entropija, koja je
05:54
which is a measure of the disorder of a system,
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mera neuređenosti nekog sistema,
05:56
will always increase.
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uvek raste.
05:58
The same is true of marketing.
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Isto važi u marketingu.
06:00
If we go back 20 years,
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Vratimo se u prošlost 20 godina:
06:02
the one message pretty much controlled by one marketing manager
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jedan slogan iza kojeg se nalazio jedan marketinški menadžer
06:05
could pretty much define a brand.
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je bio u stanju da definiše brend.
06:08
But where we are today, things have changed.
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Ipak, danas stvari stoje drugačije.
06:11
You can get a strong brand image
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Možete stvoriti jak brend,
06:13
or a message
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vizualno ili verbalno, i izneti ga
06:15
and put it out there like the Conservative Party did
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pred javnost, kao što je Konzervativna partija uradila
06:17
earlier this year with their election poster.
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svojim izbornim posterom, ranije u toku godine.
06:20
But then you lose control of it.
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Ali onda gubite kontrolu nad njime.
06:23
With the kind of digital comment creation and distribution tools
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Uz sve načine na koje je moguće stvoriti i distribuirati
06:26
that are available now to every consumer,
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digitalne komentare, dostupne svakom potrošaču danas,
06:29
it's impossible to control where it goes.
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nemoguće je kontrolisati pravac razvoja brenda.
06:32
Your brand starts being dispersed,
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Brend počinje da se rasipa.
06:34
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:36
it gets more chaotic.
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Postaje haotičan.
06:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:40
It's out of your control.
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Potpuno je van kontrole.
06:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:47
I actually saw him speak -- he did a good job.
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Zapravo, video sam njegovo predavanje i bilo je dobro.
06:49
But while this may be unsettling for marketers,
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Iako je to uznemirujuće za ljude u marketingu,
06:51
it's actually a good thing.
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u pitanju je dobra stvar.
06:53
This distribution of brand energy
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Ovo širenje energije brenda
06:55
gets your brand closer to the people,
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čini da brend postaje bliži ljudima,
06:57
more in with the people.
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zanimljiviji njima samima.
06:59
It makes this distribution of energy a democratizing force,
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To širenje energije je sila koja "demokratizuje"
07:02
which is ultimately good for your brand.
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i koja je dobra za brend, kada se sve uzme u obzir.
07:05
So, the lesson from physics is
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Dakle, fizika nas uči da se entropija
07:07
that entropy will always increase; it's a fundamental law.
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uvek povećava; to je fundamentalni zakon.
07:10
The message for marketing is that your brand is more dispersed.
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Poruka marketingu je da je vaš brend rašireniji.
07:13
You can't fight it, so embrace it
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Ne možete izbeći tu činjenicu,
07:15
and find a way to work with it.
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te je prihvatite i nađite načina da je iskoristite.
07:18
So to close,
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Kao zaključak,
07:20
my teacher, Mr. Vutter, told me
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moj nastavnik, g-din Vater, mi je pokazao
07:22
that physics is cool,
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da je fizika kul, te se nadam
07:24
and hopefully, I've convinced you
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da sam vas ubedio da fizika
07:26
that physics can teach all of us, even in the world of marketing, something special.
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može da nas nauči nečemu posebnom, čak i u svetu marketinga.
07:29
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
07:31
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whizDan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need.
Why you should listen
In 2006, Dan Cobley was appointed director of marketing at Google for central and northern Europe. He shows customers the best way to use Google products to find the information and services they’re searching for, while working with businesses to demonstrate how a search engine can help them find interested customers.
Before Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.
More profile about the speakerBefore Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.
Dan Cobley | Speaker | TED.com